NCAAF & NFL Grades / Results, etc
November 9th, 2022 at 4:19:28 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjThe only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post
From personal experience, never bet the Zips.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 9th, 2022 at 4:39:42 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjThe only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post
I literally was 0-15 last night! Most were two leg parlays. Quite remarkable. Back to the drawing board.
November 9th, 2022 at 11:29:42 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjThe only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post
I literally was 0-15 last night! Most were two leg parlays. Quite remarkable. Back to the drawing board.
link to original post
You really need to start selling those picks.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 9th, 2022 at 1:24:56 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjThe only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post
I literally was 0-15 last night! Most were two leg parlays. Quite remarkable. Back to the drawing board.
link to original post
You really need to start selling those picks.
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Nahhhh….. I really don’t think my picks are better or worse than throwing a dart blindly at a board with team names. I had been on a pretty good money winning streak. But yesterday was just silly. My wins tend to be much bigger than my
Losses. It’s the nature of picking parlays. And other long shots.
November 9th, 2022 at 1:29:50 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdjThe only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post
From personal experience, never bet the Zips.
link to original post
To add insult to injury, I think the Zips beat the "full - game" spread by 0.5 of a point (34-28).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 9, 2022
November 9th, 2022 at 3:21:39 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjIMO, these are about 53%-54% chance at their current line, for the following NFL teams, this week:
Packers (+5.5)
Rams (-3)
Texans (+6.5)
Bucs' (-2.5) ***
(snip)
link to original post
Hold off betting on the Rams', as Stafford is in "Concussion Protocol".
Note: Lucky for me I held off, because I was about to back the Rams @ -1.5 (2.5 or so hours ago, was when I first learnt this).
My ML odds for the Rams are as follows:
Stafford In: ~$1.62 (-160)
Stafford Out: ~$2.20 (+120)
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Update (about 1540, Pac Time):
Other game not previously mentioned (for this week):
For the Bills', I have the following ML:
Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 9, 2022
November 9th, 2022 at 4:18:21 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: DRichQuote: ksdjdjThe only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post
From personal experience, never bet the Zips.
link to original post
To add insult to injury, I think the Zips beat the "full - game" spread by 0.5 of a point (34-28).
link to original post
Of course the Zips will win when you do not bet on them.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 9th, 2022 at 5:29:27 PM
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Here are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).
NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).
Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).
^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).
Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).
Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.
"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).
***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).
NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).
Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).
^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).
Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
For the Bills', I have the following ML:
Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
link to original post
Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.
"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).
***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 9, 2022
November 10th, 2022 at 3:44:40 PM
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Panthers' game:
I usually really like the under, when I see a weather forecast similar to the one for the NFL game today.
But, IMO it is only about an "x " grade one @ 41.5 (I would need it to get to 43 before I would consider having a bet on the under).
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Update (~1712, Pac Time);
Managed to get one of my online accounts "unfrozen", so I had:
2.6 units on the Panthers' @ +2.5 (odds +106)
I usually really like the under, when I see a weather forecast similar to the one for the NFL game today.
But, IMO it is only about an "x " grade one @ 41.5 (I would need it to get to 43 before I would consider having a bet on the under).
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Update (~1712, Pac Time);
Managed to get one of my online accounts "unfrozen", so I had:
2.6 units on the Panthers' @ +2.5 (odds +106)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 10, 2022
November 11th, 2022 at 11:22:44 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjHere are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
(snip)
link to original post
Both Under for 2.7 units:
@ USC: Under 66.5 ($1.90)
@ UNLV: Under 61.5 ($1.92)
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Update (~1135, Pac Time):
2.0 units on the Packers @ $2.75 ML
November 12th, 2022 at 8:55:31 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjHere are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).
NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).
Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).
^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).
Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
For the Bills', I have the following ML:
Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
link to original post
Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.
"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).
***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
link to original post
I’m tagging on today…. I got Mid Ten u 67.5
And Illinois o 44. 1/2 point better than you got.
November 12th, 2022 at 11:08:02 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjHere are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).
NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).
Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).
^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).
Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
For the Bills', I have the following ML:
Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
link to original post
Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.
"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).
***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
link to original post
I’m tagging on today…. I got Mid Ten u 67.5
And Illinois o 44. 1/2 point better than you got.
link to original post
Hope you get the Illinois o 44 (I am not on, because I forgot to set my alarm).
Here are my pending bets for the games this week (so far):
2.8 units on Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 @ $1.86
2.0 units on the Packers @ $2.75 ML
2.4 units on Buffalo Bills*** vs Minnesota Vikings: Vikings +2.5 @ $2.20 (Edit 1120, Pac Time)
***: I don't know if Allen is out yet, but even if he is playing (with a suspected UCL injury) then I guessed that the fair line would be about +2.0 for the Vikings.
November 12th, 2022 at 11:42:42 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj
(snip)
link to original post
(snip
Stafford In: ~$1.62 (-160)
Stafford Out: ~$2.20 (+120)
(snip)
link to original post
Above were my estimates for the Rams, assuming a healthy K Murray was playing (see other Rams' estimates below):
Stafford In / Murray Out: ~$1.47 (-211)
Stafford Out / Murray Out: ~$1.89 (-112)
November 12th, 2022 at 11:52:25 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj
(snip)Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
link to original post
I’m tagging on today…. I got Mid Ten u 67.5
And Illinois o 44. 1/2 point better than you got.
link to original post
Hope you get the Illinois o 44 (I am not on, because I forgot to set my alarm).
(snip)
link to original post
I know the total is currently 42 (21-21) but if the total with your 'book includes over time, then you have almost certainly^^^ won.
^^^: The worst that can happen is a push if just a safety is scored between now, and the end of the game.
November 12th, 2022 at 1:52:22 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjHere are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).
NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).
Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).
^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).
Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
For the Bills', I have the following ML:
Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
link to original post
Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.
"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).
***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
link to original post
I’m tagging on today…. I got Mid Ten u 67.5
And Illinois o 44. 1/2 point better than you got.
link to original post
Hope you get the Illinois o 44 (I am not on, because I forgot to set my alarm).
Here are my pending bets for the games this week (so far):
2.8 units on Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 @ $1.86
2.0 units on the Packers @ $2.75 ML
2.4 units on Buffalo Bills*** vs Minnesota Vikings: Vikings +2.5 @ $2.20 (Edit 1120, Pac Time)
***: I don't know if Allen is out yet, but even if he is playing (with a suspected UCL injury) then I guessed that the fair line would be about +2.0 for the Vikings.
link to original post
I think unless you know, and could you possibly, how Josh Allen is physically, there is no way to bet that game other than random guess. It is equally conceivable that he isn’t playing, and also possible he is 100%.
I actually took care of a Buffalo Bill a few years back. I was in the OR watching his surgery. I would have bet that there was NO WAY he’d play the next game. He played, and had a good game.
November 12th, 2022 at 4:11:51 PM
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Some more bets for this afternoon/evening ("x x x "):
2.8 units on San Jose State -2.5 @ $1.87
2.8 units on Coastal Carolina -4.5 @ $1.88
2.4 units on TCU +5.5 @ $2.28
Note: For the above TCU game, I would have been happy to take 2.8 units TCU +7.5 @ $1.89 .
2.8 units on San Jose State -2.5 @ $1.87
2.8 units on Coastal Carolina -4.5 @ $1.88
2.4 units on TCU +5.5 @ $2.28
Note: For the above TCU game, I would have been happy to take 2.8 units TCU +7.5 @ $1.89 .
November 12th, 2022 at 5:13:50 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjSome more bets for this afternoon/evening ("x x x "):
2.8 units on San Jose State -2.5 @ $1.87
2.8 units on Coastal Carolina -4.5 @ $1.88
2.4 units on TCU +5.5 @ $2.28
Note: For the above TCU game, I would have been happy to take 2.8 units TCU +7.5 @ $1.89 .
link to original post
I have to say that I really like that you make picks for teams from the smaller conferences. I usually assume that I am the only one that cares about those games.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:15:27 PM
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I know the Vikings' game isn't over yet, fingers' crossed. (update to come)
Update:
Come on overtime, what a great^^^ game (win or lose) too bad I didn't wait for my bet (I would have gotten at least +6.5*** )
^^^: At least the 2nd half, in terms of "excitement" (didn't see the first half).
***: That was the line ~24 hours ago.
Update:
Come on overtime, what a great^^^ game (win or lose) too bad I didn't wait for my bet (I would have gotten at least +6.5*** )
^^^: At least the 2nd half, in terms of "excitement" (didn't see the first half).
***: That was the line ~24 hours ago.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:02:47 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj
(snip)
link to original post
(snip
Stafford In: ~$1.62 (-160)
Stafford Out: ~$2.20 (+120)
(snip)
link to original post
Above were my estimates for the Rams, assuming a healthy K Murray was playing (see other Rams' estimates below):
Stafford In / Murray Out: ~$1.47 (-211)
Stafford Out / Murray Out: ~$1.89 (-112)
link to original post
Both Murray and Stafford out.
I would have had^^^ the Rams' roughly -1 ATS (or -112 ML) so I would have taken the Cards' (+3.0 or +3.5, according to V I).
^^^: Didn't get my bet on, because I was watching the Bills / Vikings Game.
November 13th, 2022 at 4:31:50 PM
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2.6 units on the Chargers' +8.0 @ $1.96
Note: My estimate is Chargers' +6.5.
Note: My estimate is Chargers' +6.5.
November 13th, 2022 at 7:01:58 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj2.6 units on the Chargers' +8.0 @ $1.96
Note: My estimate is Chargers' +6.5.
link to original post
I have BetMGM Lion Boost. Chargers + 6.5 parlayed with over 45.5. I have queasy feeling. If Herbert isn’t allowed to go 2nd half Chase Daniel looked totally unprepared.
It’s +400 with their offer.
November 13th, 2022 at 7:08:21 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj2.6 units on the Chargers' +8.0 @ $1.96
Note: My estimate is Chargers' +6.5.
link to original post
I have BetMGM Lion Boost. Chargers + 6.5 parlayed with over 45.5. I have queasy feeling. If Herbert isn’t allowed to go 2nd half Chase Daniel looked totally unprepared.
It’s +400 with their offer.
link to original post
"Live Update" (end of first half):
If J Herbert is out for the rest of the game, then I have the "50/50" line as Chargers' @ +6.75 for the 2nd half, as my estimate for C Daniel as "the whole game QB" is @ +13.5 for this match-up (in other words, when compared to Herbert he is about 7 pts worse, when playing the entire game, IMO).
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Update (likely won't write anymore until after the game):
~ 5 minutes into the 2nd half, and it looks like Herbert is warming up with his helmet on, so we can probably disregard what I wrote above, at least for a while?
November 13th, 2022 at 10:32:01 PM
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Eagles' Game:
I like the Under 43.5 as an "x x x", and the Eagles' -10.5 @ odds of -110 as a "solid x x " .
Note: If you can get at least -10.5 @ odds of -105 (then that is good enough to make it an "x x x", IMO).
My bet(s):
I had 1.5 units on the "Eagles -9.5 x under 44.5 " @ $3.60 (+260)
Also, an early bet on the Chiefs/Chargers game next week, 3 units on the Chiefs -6 @ $1.90 (-111).
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Extra Info:
Working most days this week, and then going away for the weekend, so probably won't be as many bets (especially College Football).
I like the Under 43.5 as an "x x x", and the Eagles' -10.5 @ odds of -110 as a "solid x x " .
Note: If you can get at least -10.5 @ odds of -105 (then that is good enough to make it an "x x x", IMO).
My bet(s):
I had 1.5 units on the "Eagles -9.5 x under 44.5 " @ $3.60 (+260)
Also, an early bet on the Chiefs/Chargers game next week, 3 units on the Chiefs -6 @ $1.90 (-111).
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Extra Info:
Working most days this week, and then going away for the weekend, so probably won't be as many bets (especially College Football).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 13, 2022
November 15th, 2022 at 3:05:04 PM
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Only found one College Football game that I liked this week (so far):
2.7 units on BALL STATE CARDINALS+3.5 @ $1.90
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Other:
I will post my results from last week, within 24 hours.
2.7 units on BALL STATE CARDINALS+3.5 @ $1.90
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Other:
I will post my results from last week, within 24 hours.
November 15th, 2022 at 3:17:18 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjOnly found one College Football game that I liked this week (so far):
2.7 units on BALL STATE CARDINALS+3.5 @ $1.90
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Other:
I will post my results from last week, within 24 hours.
link to original post
Tonight I will be flipping between Ball St game and Bowling Green game. Go Cardinals.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 16th, 2022 at 3:18:37 PM
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Results Summary:
NCAAF:
NFL:
Current Results:
NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 214.655
Profit: 14.286
"Profit on Turnover": 6.65...%
NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 72.96
Profit: 2.398
"Profit on Turnover": 3.28...%
Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 287.615
Profit: 16.684
"Profit on Turnover": 5.80...%
-----
Comments:
. Glad I found a "stale same game double (line x total) " for the Eagles' game, otherwise I would have lost almost 4 units more, this week (if I bet my standard amount on each single option).
. I had a losing week (obviously) but I missed out betting on 2/3(or more?) winning "x x x" bets, mostly because I am forgetful (I was mainly "waiting to see" if the lines / odds would get better, but ended up missing out).
. First bet this week lost as well.
. Reminder that I probably won't be having as many bets this week.
NCAAF:
| Game | Bet / Option | Unit Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Akron Zips | Under 57.0 @ $1.90 | -2.700 |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Akron Zips | Akron Zips +3.5 @ $1.92 (1st half) | -2.700 |
| Ohio Bobcats @ Miami RedHawks | Miami RedHawks ML @ $2.20 | -2.400 |
| -------- | @ USC: Under 66.5 ($1.90) | -2.700 |
| ------- | @ UNLV: Under 61.5 ($1.92) | -2.700 |
| Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee: | 2.8 units on the Under 67.5 @ $1.86 | 2.408 |
| ------- | 2.8 units on San Jose State -2.5 @ $1.87 | -2.800 |
| ------- | 2.8 units on Coastal Carolina -4.5 @ $1.88 | -2.800 |
| ------- | 2.4 units on TCU +5.5 @ $2.28 | 3.072 |
| ------- | Total For Week | -13.320 |
NFL:
| Bet / Option | Unit Won / Lost |
|---|---|
| 2.6 units on the Panthers' @ +2.5 (odds +106) | 2.756 |
| 2.0 units on the Packers @ $2.75 ML | 3.500 |
| 2.4 units on the Vikings +2.5 @ $2.20 | 2.880 |
| 2.6 units on the Chargers' +8.0 @ $1.96 | 2.496 |
| 1.5 units on the "Eagles -9.5 x under 44.5 " @ $3.60 | -1.500 |
| Total For Week | 10.132 |
Current Results:
NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 214.655
Profit: 14.286
"Profit on Turnover": 6.65...%
NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 72.96
Profit: 2.398
"Profit on Turnover": 3.28...%
Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 287.615
Profit: 16.684
"Profit on Turnover": 5.80...%
-----
Comments:
. Glad I found a "stale same game double (line x total) " for the Eagles' game, otherwise I would have lost almost 4 units more, this week (if I bet my standard amount on each single option).
. I had a losing week (obviously) but I missed out betting on 2/3(or more?) winning "x x x" bets, mostly because I am forgetful (I was mainly "waiting to see" if the lines / odds would get better, but ended up missing out).
. First bet this week lost as well.
. Reminder that I probably won't be having as many bets this week.
November 21st, 2022 at 4:37:37 PM
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Back from break:
Got 2.7*** units on the Cardinals +10 @ $1.90.
***: Had the equivalent of 2.7 units on the Cards', but the best result for me personally would be if the 49ers' win^^^, and the Cards' cover.
^^^: Had $1500 in bonus bets on the Cards' @ +360, but $5000 on the 49ers' earlier in the week @ $1.38 (about -263).
Reminder: This thread is mostly about my "graded bets", so only the "Cards' +10 bet" will be counted in the results summary.
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Comments:
Not having a good week, so far.
Got 2.7*** units on the Cardinals +10 @ $1.90.
***: Had the equivalent of 2.7 units on the Cards', but the best result for me personally would be if the 49ers' win^^^, and the Cards' cover.
^^^: Had $1500 in bonus bets on the Cards' @ +360, but $5000 on the 49ers' earlier in the week @ $1.38 (about -263).
Reminder: This thread is mostly about my "graded bets", so only the "Cards' +10 bet" will be counted in the results summary.
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Comments:
Not having a good week, so far.
November 21st, 2022 at 4:50:33 PM
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For the Cards' game, If you can find under 43.5 @ -110 (or better^^^) then that is a "x x x grade", too.
^^^: I can only get -117, atm.
^^^: I can only get -117, atm.
November 24th, 2022 at 1:01:15 PM
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Both for 2.5 units:
Giants +10.5 @ $1.93
Vikings -2.5 @ $1.90
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Comments:
According to ESPN, a lot of starters' are out for the Giants, but I still think 10 pts is too much.
I will post the previous weeks' results later.
Giants +10.5 @ $1.93
Vikings -2.5 @ $1.90
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Comments:
According to ESPN, a lot of starters' are out for the Giants, but I still think 10 pts is too much.
I will post the previous weeks' results later.
November 24th, 2022 at 6:04:44 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjBoth for 2.5 units:
Giants +10.5 @ $1.93
Vikings -2.5 @ $1.90
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Comments:
According to ESPN, a lot of starters' are out for the Giants, but I still think 10 pts is too much.
I will post the previous weeks' results later.
link to original post
I never saw it at +10.5. Just once at +10 and I pounced on it. And got very lucky…
I’m in on the Vikes with you….
November 26th, 2022 at 1:26:42 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjBoth for 2.5 units:
Giants +10.5 @ $1.93
Vikings -2.5 @ $1.90
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Comments:
According to ESPN, a lot of starters' are out for the Giants, but I still think 10 pts is too much.
I will post the previous weeks' results later.
link to original post
I never saw it at +10.5. Just once at +10 and I pounced on it. And got very lucky…
I’m in on the Vikes with you….
link to original post
I have Covid, and was too sick*** to write anything earlier^^^, but I had 3 units on the Jets -6.0 @ $1.90 (I think they should be -8)
***: Because of this, there won't be any College "graded bets" this week.
^^^: I had the bet about 13 hours ago.
Note: I still haven't posted last weeks' results (almost certain that all bets lost, last week) but I will try to do it soon (hopefully today or tomorrow).
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Other:
We were very lucky to beat the spread in "Garbage Time" (for the Giants' game).
Also, I am leaning towards the Steelers', but I only have them as a solid "x x " at the moment.
November 26th, 2022 at 3:23:59 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
link to original post
(snip) I am leaning towards the Steelers', but I only have them as a solid "x x " at the moment.
link to original post
I am not on these spreads (at this time) but below are the "minimum^^^ price points " for other games that are close to "x x x " IMO:
^^^: In other words, "need this or better" to make them "x x x".
Steelers': +2.5 @ +100 / or +3 @ -115.
Cardinals': +2.5 @ -105 / or +3 @ -120.
Saints': +9.5*** @ -110.
***: Though I did have 3 units on the Saint's +6.0 @ $1.90 (about -111) on the "first half spread" (so, obviously this one will count as part of my "graded bets" ).
Note 1a): These will almost automatically become "x x x", if the spread moves to the ones listed above (or better)
Note 1b): With the exception of any key player(s) being out, that were expected to play (between now, and game time).
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Update (about 1540, Pac Time):
I would have had 3^^^ units on the Chiefs' -15.5 @ $1.90 / or -14.5 @ $1.85 but I had a ML bet on them instead (to test out my "bonus theory").
^^^: This is not my "real bet", but I will count this as part of my "graded bets " (even though my real bet was a ML one on the Chiefs').
Note: See "part written about the Chiefs' " in the link here
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 26, 2022
November 27th, 2022 at 11:41:42 AM
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Reminder (as alluded to by the end of my previous post): I " had^^^ " 3 units on the Chiefs -14.5 @ $1.85.
^^^: Artificial / not my real bet (didn't actually have it because I don't want to load up "too much money", on the same team in one game).
Note : The estimated RTP was about 1/1000 to 1/500 better than -15.5 @ $1.90, but both are still "x x x ".
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Update (~1255. Pac Time):
I just had 2.7 units on the Cards' +2.5 @ $2.00
^^^: Artificial / not my real bet (didn't actually have it because I don't want to load up "too much money", on the same team in one game).
Note : The estimated RTP was about 1/1000 to 1/500 better than -15.5 @ $1.90, but both are still "x x x ".
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Update (~1255. Pac Time):
I just had 2.7 units on the Cards' +2.5 @ $2.00
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2022
November 27th, 2022 at 5:19:23 PM
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Covid and bad "short term memory" don't mix, I forgot I only managed to get one bet on last week (as I was on break).
Because there was only one "graded bet" last week, I will add it on to this weeks' results' total.
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Other / Comments:
So far the ATS wins for me have been close this week.
IMO, the Rams went "well for such a depleted team " (I kind of expected the Chiefs' to get at least 30 pts).
Glad the Chargers' went for 2 on their last scoring play of the game (because whether is was successful or not, it was great for my bet on that game).
Didn't get to watch the game, but just going by the stats^^^ I may have to consider the 49ers' as the "best team that currently has a 7-4 record ".
^^^: They are keeping teams on average to less than 16 pts per game (but I haven't looked at the records / quality of the teams they are doing that to, yet).
Because the game is about to start, this will not be counted as part of the official "graded bets". But I think the Eagles should be -7.5 / or about "x grade", so I had 2 units### on them @ -6.5.
###: I may go back to a modified "x ", "x x " and " x x x", betting system/ strategy, after this week.
Because there was only one "graded bet" last week, I will add it on to this weeks' results' total.
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Other / Comments:
So far the ATS wins for me have been close this week.
IMO, the Rams went "well for such a depleted team " (I kind of expected the Chiefs' to get at least 30 pts).
Glad the Chargers' went for 2 on their last scoring play of the game (because whether is was successful or not, it was great for my bet on that game).
Didn't get to watch the game, but just going by the stats^^^ I may have to consider the 49ers' as the "best team that currently has a 7-4 record ".
^^^: They are keeping teams on average to less than 16 pts per game (but I haven't looked at the records / quality of the teams they are doing that to, yet).
Because the game is about to start, this will not be counted as part of the official "graded bets". But I think the Eagles should be -7.5 / or about "x grade", so I had 2 units### on them @ -6.5.
###: I may go back to a modified "x ", "x x " and " x x x", betting system/ strategy, after this week.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2022
November 27th, 2022 at 7:03:46 PM
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Looking forward to your college picks this week. I really think I picked under 40% last two weeks on ‘even chance’ picks. I really don’t just want to fade what I actually think…. but maybe it’s a good strategy….
November 27th, 2022 at 7:53:03 PM
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Update:
Compared to a "healthy Rodgers^^^ ", I have J Love about 6.5 pts*** worse ( "full game spread ").
^^^: Rodgers' "questionable to return" near the end of the third quarter.
***: When compared to my original estimate of -7.5 pts for the Eagles (so very roughly the spread should be Eagles -3 to -4, for the 4th quarter).
Compared to a "healthy Rodgers^^^ ", I have J Love about 6.5 pts*** worse ( "full game spread ").
^^^: Rodgers' "questionable to return" near the end of the third quarter.
***: When compared to my original estimate of -7.5 pts for the Eagles (so very roughly the spread should be Eagles -3 to -4, for the 4th quarter).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2022
November 27th, 2022 at 9:55:05 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjUpdate:
Compared to a "healthy Rodgers^^^ ", I have J Love about 6.5 pts*** worse ( "full game spread ").
^^^: Rodgers' "questionable to return" near the end of the third quarter.
***: When compared to my original estimate of -7.5 pts for the Eagles (so very roughly the spread should be Eagles -3 to -4, for the 4th quarter).
link to original post
I know he was only in for final quarter, but a seemingly great game for J Love.
If he can get an average "whole game passer rating" of about 65% of the figure in that quarter, then I think his value should be greater, when compared to a " current season healthy Rodgers".
November 28th, 2022 at 4:29:56 PM
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Couldn't get 2.7 units @ "evens", so I only had 2 units on the Steelers' +2.5 @ 1.95 (so the equiv. of an "x x " ).
Reminder: I am going to start betting the way I did earlier in the season, because I was missing out on a lot of +EV, by "scraping the x and x x bets ".
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Early bet for next week: I had 2 units on the Seahawks' -12.5 @ $2.60 (... equiv. of an "x x x ").
Note: I think the "50/50" line for the 'hawks' should be -10
Reminder: I am going to start betting the way I did earlier in the season, because I was missing out on a lot of +EV, by "scraping the x and x x bets ".
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Early bet for next week: I had 2 units on the Seahawks' -12.5 @ $2.60 (... equiv. of an "x x x ").
Note: I think the "50/50" line for the 'hawks' should be -10
November 28th, 2022 at 4:47:18 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOLooking forward to your college picks this week. (snip).
link to original post
I find the near college playoffs to early playoffs periods a lot harder than the same periods for the NFL, but I will at least "list some picks" whether I find any "really good value ones " / " x x x ones" or not.
1st pick (Week 14: I like TCU -1.5 @ -115 early, but I haven't graded that one yet (in other words that is a "very subjective one")
I had a $200 "interest bet" on them @ $1.87
2nd pick (Week 14: I like Akron +11.5 @ -110 early, but I haven't graded that one yet either (... "very subjective one").
I had a $200 "interest bet" on them @ $1.90
Reminder: These are just picks, so the above bets won't count as part of the "graded bets results".
November 28th, 2022 at 4:58:20 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj
2nd pick (Week 14: I like Akron +11.5 @ -110 early, but I haven't graded that one yet either (... "very subjective one").
You are going to eventually learn your lesson. I have never won a bet on the Zips.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 28th, 2022 at 5:02:16 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdj
2nd pick (Week 14: I like Akron +11.5 @ -110 early, but I haven't graded that one yet either (... "very subjective one").
You are going to eventually learn your lesson. I have never won a bet on the Zips.
link to original post
Lol, and they will probably "just beat the first half spread" and go on to "lose against the full game spread" (basically a "reverse of what happened last time I bet on them").
November 28th, 2022 at 7:04:20 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjCouldn't get 2.7 units @ "evens", so I only had 2 units on the Steelers' +2.5 @ 1.95 (so the equiv. of an "x x " ).
(snip)
link to original post
Half-time comments/bets:
Colts should be better than that in the 2nd half (because it is pretty hard to be any worse) so I had a 1 unit bet on them +7.5 @ 1.90.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:25:34 PM
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NCAAF:
See post "November 15th, 2022 at 3:05:04 PM"
2.7 units on BALL STATE CARDINALS+3.5 @ $1.90, lost 2.7 units (only one bet, so didn't bother putting in a table).
NFL:
Current Results:
NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 217.355
Profit: 11.586
"Profit on Turnover": 5.33...%
NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 94.36
Profit: 11.123
"Profit on Turnover": 11.78...%
Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 311.715
Profit: 22.709
"Profit on Turnover": 7.28...%
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"Graded bet to real bet" adjustments :
In "real money terms", I won a little bit more (+0.15 units) than what it says in the above "official results" (see below):
+0.90 units on a "Colts live bet" - week 12 (main reason not included in results: 2nd half had just started by the time I had finished writing the post).
+1.80 units on the Eagles - week 12 (main reason not included: game started or was just about to start before I finished typing post).
-2.55 units on the Chiefs - week 12 (was included in the above results, but was a "simulated/ artificial bet", because even though I thought it was "x x x grade" I didn't actually have it, as " I didn't want to load up "too much money", on the same team in one game ").
See post "November 15th, 2022 at 3:05:04 PM"
2.7 units on BALL STATE CARDINALS+3.5 @ $1.90, lost 2.7 units (only one bet, so didn't bother putting in a table).
NFL:
| Week | Bet / Option | Unit Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2.7 units on the Cardinals +10 @ $1.90 | -2.700 |
| 12 | Both for 2.5 units: Giants +10.5 @ 1.93 | 2.325 |
| -------- | and Vikings -2.5 @ $1.90 | 2.250 |
| -------- | 3 units on the Jets -6.0 @ $1.90 | 2.700 |
| -------- | 3 units on the Saint's +6.0 @ $1.90, "first half spread" | -3.000 |
| -------- | 3 units on the Chiefs -14.5 @ $1.85 | 2.55 |
| -------- | 2.7 units on the Cards' +2.5 @ $2.00 | 2.700 |
| 12 | 2 units on the Steelers' +2.5 @ 1.95 | 1.900 |
| Total For Period | 8.725 |
Current Results:
NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 217.355
Profit: 11.586
"Profit on Turnover": 5.33...%
NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 94.36
Profit: 11.123
"Profit on Turnover": 11.78...%
Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 311.715
Profit: 22.709
"Profit on Turnover": 7.28...%
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"Graded bet to real bet" adjustments :
In "real money terms", I won a little bit more (+0.15 units) than what it says in the above "official results" (see below):
+0.90 units on a "Colts live bet" - week 12 (main reason not included in results: 2nd half had just started by the time I had finished writing the post).
+1.80 units on the Eagles - week 12 (main reason not included: game started or was just about to start before I finished typing post).
-2.55 units on the Chiefs - week 12 (was included in the above results, but was a "simulated/ artificial bet", because even though I thought it was "x x x grade" I didn't actually have it, as " I didn't want to load up "too much money", on the same team in one game ").
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 28, 2022
November 28th, 2022 at 10:32:19 PM
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College football bets:
"x x x grade": I had 3.3 units Utah Utes +3.5 @ $1.83
Alternative bet: 3 units, +3.0 @ -110 / ~$1.91 is "almost as good" (if you can't get the above odds, or better).
Note: According to V I, you can currently get +3.5 @ -114 with at least one of the 'books..
"x x grade ": I had 2.2 units Michigan Wolverines -15.5 @ $1.84
Alternative bet: 2 units, -16.5 @ -110 / ~$1.91 is "almost as good" (if you can't get the above odds, or better).
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Update (~0205, Pac Time):
NFL:
"x x grade": 2 units on the Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.90
"x x x grade": 2 units on the Seahawks' -12.5 @ $2.60
Note: I copied the above Seahawks' bet from an earlier post, so that it is easier for me to find (in other words, I only had the above bet once),
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Extra:
Unless I see some "ridiculous line movements", I don't think there will be any more NFL or College bets for me this week (at least ATS).
"x x x grade": I had 3.3 units Utah Utes +3.5 @ $1.83
Alternative bet: 3 units, +3.0 @ -110 / ~$1.91 is "almost as good" (if you can't get the above odds, or better).
Note: According to V I, you can currently get +3.5 @ -114 with at least one of the 'books..
"x x grade ": I had 2.2 units Michigan Wolverines -15.5 @ $1.84
Alternative bet: 2 units, -16.5 @ -110 / ~$1.91 is "almost as good" (if you can't get the above odds, or better).
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Update (~0205, Pac Time):
NFL:
"x x grade": 2 units on the Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.90
"x x x grade": 2 units on the Seahawks' -12.5 @ $2.60
Note: I copied the above Seahawks' bet from an earlier post, so that it is easier for me to find (in other words, I only had the above bet once),
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Extra:
Unless I see some "ridiculous line movements", I don't think there will be any more NFL or College bets for me this week (at least ATS).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 29, 2022
November 29th, 2022 at 11:38:36 AM
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LSU game: 3.2 units on Over 50.5 @ $1.85***
Alt Bet: 3 units Over 51 @ -110
3.2 units on the Titans +5.5 @ $1.85 ***
Alt Bet: 3 units +5.0 @ -110
***: These are the bets that I had (both "x x x ").
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Other:
If I had waited about 8 hours, the Dolphins bet would be " x x x " , because you can now get better odds on them.
Alt Bet: 3 units Over 51 @ -110
3.2 units on the Titans +5.5 @ $1.85 ***
Alt Bet: 3 units +5.0 @ -110
***: These are the bets that I had (both "x x x ").
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Other:
If I had waited about 8 hours, the Dolphins bet would be " x x x " , because you can now get better odds on them.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 29, 2022
November 30th, 2022 at 6:16:06 PM
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Managed to find a new book with some "good alternative lines" (so I had the bet below):
1.5 units on the New England Patriots -5.5*** @ +400
Also, I think they should be +2.5 as the "50/50" line, so +3.5 @ -110 or better is also "x x x".
1.5 units on the New England Patriots -5.5*** @ +400
Also, I think they should be +2.5 as the "50/50" line, so +3.5 @ -110 or better is also "x x x".
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 30, 2022
December 1st, 2022 at 6:09:38 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjManaged to find a new book with some "good alternative lines" (so I had the bet below):
1.5 units on the New England Patriots -5.5*** @ +400
Also, I think they should be +2.5 as the "50/50" line, so +3.5 @ -110 or better is also "x x x".
link to original post
Not sure if the lines have moved since your post, but I can get get Bills +5.5 at -335. Obviously if you can get Pats -5.5 at +400 you can make $$$ depending on the limits your books allow.
December 1st, 2022 at 11:50:58 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjManaged to find a new book with some "good alternative lines" (so I had the bet below):
1.5 units on the New England Patriots -5.5*** @ +400
Also, I think they should be +2.5 as the "50/50" line, so +3.5 @ -110 or better is also "x x x".
link to original post
Not sure if the lines have moved since your post, but I can get get Bills +5.5 at -335. Obviously if you can get Pats -5.5 at +400 you can make $$$ depending on the limits your books allow.
link to original post
For the lines mentioned above the Pats' are still +390, and the Bills' are about -555 ($1.18).
Also, at the time of this post, they only have an "implied bookmakers' %" of about "100 and 1/16%" *** in their "50/50" (Bills -3.5 / Pats' +3.5) market (most likely human error?).
***: They have the Bills' $1.95, and the Pats' $2.05.
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Additional bet(s):
Had 0.2 units on the Dolphins -5.5 @ +400 (an "x x x" one that is almost as good as the Pats' one IMO, but I already had a "standard style" bet on the Dolphins, earlier).
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Edit (1630, Pac Time):
Some minor changes to the wording, to correct the "... bookmakers' % figure".
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 1, 2022
December 1st, 2022 at 6:50:03 PM
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Half Time: Welp, being down a TD would have been nice.
—-
Comments:
If the Bills were behind by a td or so at half time, then I would likely bet on the over “live total”.
—-
Comments:
If the Bills were behind by a td or so at half time, then I would likely bet on the over “live total”.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:22:29 AM
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Comments:
NFL:
"Glad" I was wrong by "so much" in the Pats' game, because I "save" 1.5 units since the Bills' beat the spread easily.
NCAAF:
I wasn't watching the game because I was at work, but at least I know part of the reason for the big turn-around after USC were up by 14 early in the Utah game (see link below)
If you also didn't get to watch the game, pretty much read from this point in the article >>>> "After pulling off a miraculous 59-yard run that had him gasping for air and walking gingerly, Williams never quite looked the same..." <<<< to the end.
NFL:
"Glad" I was wrong by "so much" in the Pats' game, because I "save" 1.5 units since the Bills' beat the spread easily.
NCAAF:
I wasn't watching the game because I was at work, but at least I know part of the reason for the big turn-around after USC were up by 14 early in the Utah game (see link below)
If you also didn't get to watch the game, pretty much read from this point in the article >>>> "After pulling off a miraculous 59-yard run that had him gasping for air and walking gingerly, Williams never quite looked the same..." <<<< to the end.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 3, 2022
