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ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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August 22nd, 2025 at 5:07:11 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Somebody tell me if I am reading this wrong, but I may have found an AP at the Circa Nevada online app

I am reading these two bets:
Penn State +600 to win the CFP championship
Penn State -85 (that's what it says) not to win the CFP championship

It also has +500 on the yes and -69 on the no for Texas
link to original post



What does -85 mean even possibly as a legit line? No American odds are written that way. Almost no chance the bet isn’t voided. Would be interesting to see how the site calculates it if it lets you make bet? Does it convert to +118?
link to original post

I see what you mean. To go "beyond" -100 , which would mean even money, you don't go to "-99" you go to +101 or -101 depending where you want to go as the oddsmaker

This will probably give them something to go on to cancel the bets
link to original post


It may just be a glitch in one version of the app - while Penn State is "-69" not to win the CFP championship on my Android tablet, it is -690 on my phone, as well as at the kiosks in the sportsbooks.

Speaking of the app, while the others (BetMGM, Caesar's, William Hill, Stations) let me sign up no questions asked, not only does Circa make me go to an actual sportsbook to register, but it insists on a deposit of at least $50.
lilredrooster
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August 23rd, 2025 at 4:22:44 AM permalink
.
2-0 now on my MLB picks here - woohoo - +159 based on $100 bets

today I like the Brewers -132 over the Giants

Brewers are much tougher at home than the Giants on the road
Brewers starter Peralta, is having a great year - he's 15-5 with a 2.79 era
Giants starter Webb is having a good year too (you can't have everything) but not as good as Peralta
Giants are just 2-8 in their last 10
they've scored just one run or zero in 8 of their last 12 games
the Giants team batting average is just .231 ranking them 2nd to last in the league - and just .211 in their last 10 games
Brewers rank 3rd highest in the league with a .257 team batting average - glta
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 23, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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August 23rd, 2025 at 5:44:04 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

24 hours from now is college football kickoff for 2025. The Iowa state Cyclones play the Kansas State Wildcats in Dublin Ireland. Probably my first losing bet of the season.
link to original post



I had a friend 45 years ago with Iowa State ties. I visited Iowa then and had a Cyclones T shirt that lasted over 20 years until it finally disintegrated. I had an offer so bet on ISU money line at around +220.

I think this matchup is referred to as ‘Farmageddon’.
link to original post



I went to university at the U of Iowa so I knew quite a few ISU students. The Des Moines/Ames area is really nice and an area I would consider living if it didn't get cold. I have also seen the name Farmageddon used for this game this year and I had never heard that term before. It would seem more appropriate for the Iowa St vs Iowa game that is played every year,
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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August 23rd, 2025 at 6:40:22 AM permalink
Isn't that called The CyHawk bowl or something similar?

My friend transferred to Iowa and played two years for the football team, although he didn't see much action. He's retired and lives in New Mexico but summers in Ames. Hopefully, I'll get up that way next summer.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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August 23rd, 2025 at 6:41:07 AM permalink
Isn't that called The CyHawk bowl or something similar?

My friend transferred to Iowa and played two years for the football team, although he didn't see much action. He's retired and lives in New Mexico but summers in Ames. Hopefully, I'll get up that way next summer.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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August 23rd, 2025 at 6:56:50 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
2-0 now on my MLB picks here - woohoo - +159 based on $100 bets

today I like the Brewers -132 over the Giants

Brewers are much tougher at home than the Giants on the road
Brewers starter Peralta, is having a great year - he's 15-5 with a 2.79 era
Giants starter Webb is having a good year too (you can't have everything) but not as good as Peralta
Giants are just 2-8 in their last 10
they've scored just one run or zero in 8 of their last 12 games
the Giants team batting average is just .231 ranking them 2nd to last in the league - and just .211 in their last 10 games
Brewers rank 3rd highest in the league with a .257 team batting average - glta
.
link to original post



Good work. We are making bank. I also like the Brewers. Parlayed with under 8.5 and a Turang hit.

How about a Mets/Cubs parlay as well?

And finish up with a Reds/Dodgers parlay?
SkinnyTony
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August 23rd, 2025 at 7:25:35 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

24 hours from now is college football kickoff for 2025. The Iowa state Cyclones play the Kansas State Wildcats in Dublin Ireland. Probably my first losing bet of the season.
link to original post



That's the spirit.
lilredrooster
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August 23rd, 2025 at 8:13:36 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Good work. We are making bank. I also like the Brewers. Parlayed with under 8.5 and a Turang hit.

How about a Mets/Cubs parlay as well?

And finish up with a Reds/Dodgers parlay?


I don't do parlays
just try to find one good pick per day if I can when I'm in the mood
but I did like that you chose teams with pitchers with low era
good luck with that

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
ThatDonGuy
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August 23rd, 2025 at 10:22:07 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Isn't that called The CyHawk bowl or something similar?
link to original post


It's played for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, but that doesn't mean the game itself can't have a different name. Case in point: the Cal-Stanford game is called "The Big Game," but the trophy is The (Stanford) Axe.
DRich
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August 23rd, 2025 at 12:40:29 PM permalink
Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: DRich

24 hours from now is college football kickoff for 2025. The Iowa state Cyclones play the Kansas State Wildcats in Dublin Ireland. Probably my first losing bet of the season.
link to original post



That's the spirit.
link to original post



After one college football game my betting record is 0-1. Until I have seen the teams play I lim.it myself to $20 bets.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
GenoDRPh
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August 23rd, 2025 at 2:01:24 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
2-0 now on my MLB picks here - woohoo - +159 based on $100 bets

today I like the Brewers -132 over the Giants

Brewers are much tougher at home than the Giants on the road
Brewers starter Peralta, is having a great year - he's 15-5 with a 2.79 era
Giants starter Webb is having a good year too (you can't have everything) but not as good as Peralta
Giants are just 2-8 in their last 10
they've scored just one run or zero in 8 of their last 12 games
the Giants team batting average is just .231 ranking them 2nd to last in the league - and just .211 in their last 10 games
Brewers rank 3rd highest in the league with a .257 team batting average - glta
.
link to original post



Good work. We are making bank. I also like the Brewers. Parlayed with under 8.5 and a Turang hit.

How about a Mets/Cubs parlay as well?

And finish up with a Reds/Dodgers parlay?
link to original post



We here in Boston are pleased to do our part to see Yankees betters take a bath on this series...
AutomaticMonkey
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August 23rd, 2025 at 4:50:44 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh



We here in Boston are pleased to do our part to see Yankees betters take a bath on this series...
link to original post



And we the Yankees fans are pleased to see the Red Sox fans have been relegated to Boston!

I actually made a slight profit on that series with props. Not that I bet much sports. Maybe someday.
GenoDRPh
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August 24th, 2025 at 12:01:40 AM permalink
Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: GenoDRPh



We here in Boston are pleased to do our part to see Yankees betters take a bath on this series...
link to original post



And we the Yankees fans are pleased to see the Red Sox fans have been relegated to Boston!

I actually made a slight profit on that series with props. Not that I bet much sports. Maybe someday.
link to original post



Relegated? Far from it! Who wants to live in Sparta, when you can live in Athens!
lilredrooster
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August 24th, 2025 at 8:38:55 AM permalink
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my last pick tanked - I'm 2-1 +59 based on $100 bets

this game starts soon:

Pirates -1.5 - 135 over the Rockies

Skenes is on the mound for the Pirates with a league leading 2.16 era

the Rockies starter McCade Brown has never thrown a pitch in MLB before today

the Rockies are 16-48 on the road

the hapless Rockies lead the league in strikeouts and have the second lowest total runs scored in baseball this season, despite playing half their games in Coors Field,

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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August 25th, 2025 at 4:47:20 AM permalink
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won last pick - I'm 3-1 +33% based on equal amounts bet -

today:

Brewers - 1.5 +120

large pitching edge for Brewers, Brewers have been dominant at home and are clearly a much better team

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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August 25th, 2025 at 3:17:11 PM permalink
Long story. Today. Friend who a couple years back I helped win $$$ on opening bonuses on FanDuel. Helped her take advantage of the many $$ offers that followed. When they became only $ offers she didn’t seem interested. So she emptied account but kept it open. Got a ‘please come back’ offer of ‘deposit $1500, get $750 in bonus bets’. As best I can tell there are NO wagering requirements. Anyway, she got ONE $750 bonus bet. As she is risk averse and likes free $$ I told her in a few minutes I could get her around $400 for her no risk. So I saw player A was +150 and I could get Player B on another site for -170. Bet $750 at +150. If it wins she gets $1125. Bet $680 on Player B on a different site to win $400. So if Player A wins she wins $1125 -$680 =$445.00. If player B wins she loses the bonus bet but wins $400 cash from the other bet.

What could go wrong!?!?

Player A wins first two sets, then Player B retires. Does not play third set. Some sites just ‘void’ the bets in such a case ( which I feel is absolutely ridiculous!). Gulp. So it’s possible she loses the hedge bet and DOES NOT win the bonus bet. Out $680.

Butttttttttt…….. in this case the OPPOSITE happened! She WON the $1125 and the (losing!) hedge bets were voided!

A Deja vu moment. This happened to me the other way in the past but on a small bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 26th, 2025 at 4:13:55 AM permalink
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Brewers won by more than one run at + 120

since I started picking MLB this season I went 4-1 + 50.6% based on all bets being equal size

gonna take a break - quit while I'm ahead - maybe come back later

re the above post my personal belief is sports is beatable because for whatever reason (and you can't always know the reason) betting lines are not always accurate

the Brewers with the highest win % in the MLB are way, way better at home then the Diamondbacks are away, and the Brewers starting pitcher was way, way better than the Diamondbacks starter

yet you could get + 120 on the run line

looked like an edge to me -

if you can't win because everything is public information that would mean almost nobody could win because very, very few have info that is not public

but some do win long term - using the info that is available - although it is probably a very, very small % - around 3 to 5% - but there is some hope

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 26, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SkinnyTony
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August 26th, 2025 at 12:08:42 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
if you can't win because everything is public information that would mean almost nobody could win because very, very few have info that is not public

but some do win long term - using the info that is available - although it is probably a very, very small % - around 3 to 5% - but there is some hope

.
link to original post



Yes, exactly, very very few win. It's absolutely true that almost no one can win.

Most of the winners are the ones who get the information and bet it before the lines move. A few of them are ones who have better computer models than anyone else.

No one who looks at a line and says "well that doesn't look right -- this team sucks" wins. They are all long term losers. Which is fine if you are betting for fun, but very dangerous if you think you have an edge.

If you aren't banned or severely limited from most sports books you aren't a winner. I know people who have good computer models and can beat soft lines. They are limited to $1 per bet or are just banned outright from all the online books.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 26th, 2025 at 1:33:59 PM permalink
Quote: SkinnyTony


If you aren't banned or severely limited from most sports books you aren't a winner. I know people who have good computer models and can beat soft lines. They are limited to $1 per bet or are just banned outright from all the online books.


yeah, this is a horrible thing and it's worse than what casinos do to blackjack card counters

casinos may tell counters they can't play there anymore but they don't restrict anybody to $1.00 bets

they are ruining sports betting

there needs to be a regulatory authority

anybody should have a right to bet at least $100 on any bet he wants no matter if he is a winner or not

I don't believe such a thing would bankrupt sports well managed sportsbooks

sportsbooks can use computers too. they should be able to put up lines that are profitable for them without any problem

I would just about bet anything that in their zeal to protect their profits they are limiting some players who are NOT long term winners

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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August 26th, 2025 at 1:46:47 PM permalink
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deleted
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 26th, 2025 at 1:51:30 PM permalink
deleted

duplicate - sorry about that
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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August 26th, 2025 at 8:36:46 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
...<SNIP>...

but some do win long term - using the info that is available - although it is probably a very, very small % - around 3 to 5% - but there is some hope

.
link to original post

Move the decimal point. More than once.
Nothing to read here. Move along.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 27th, 2025 at 7:27:48 AM permalink
I love correlated parlays. Today, Mets ML, under 8.5, and Mets starting pitcher over 4.5k’s. Around +500. Mets pitcher starting his 3rd career game. He had 7 and 8 K’s his first two games. If any one of the 3 lose it is highly likely another one will lose as well. Just had 4 leg WNBA SGP which all 4 lost. That means I’m doing well! Because the next one all 4 hit! I think I’m going to bet $1 on the opposite correlation…. Phil’s/U 4.5 K’s/O 8.5. Just to follow it.

Yesterday’s YRFI/NRFI offer was easy to find +EV. Fair line was around -105/+105 . But MGM Gave you choice of either at +100. So had 2-3% +EV. That’s another couple dollars closer to retirement…..
AxelWolf
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August 27th, 2025 at 12:00:48 PM permalink
Quote: seagulls

Quote: lilredrooster

.


Skenes is on the mound for the Pirates with a league leading 2.16 era

the Rockies starter McCade Brown has never thrown a pitch in MLB before today

the Rockies are 16-48 on the road

the hapless Rockies lead the league in strikeouts and have the second lowest total runs scored in baseball this season, despite playing half their games in Coors Field,



Probably a bad idea to even mention this but I see threads like this all the time. This is by no means the worst example.

This is PUBLIC information. Gamblers, including degenerate long-term loser gamblers, know a lot of this stuff. Bad sports bettors are often not stupid. You can't simply look at a bunch of stats and expect to win.

All this information is factored into the line.

You need to ask yourself why you think you have an edge over the market. If you don't have an edge don't bet or expect to lose.
link to original post

I trust lilredrooster's advice/picks and data to be +EV. So much so that I have offered him a free roll using my bankroll at online casino's with discretion, unfortunately he declined.

There are times I have bet over 2k per game based on his data and advice.

I don't get down on stuff that won't allow bigger bets since it's not worth the time however I highly appreciate him posting his picks/data and advice and I'm confident it's +EV
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 27th, 2025 at 12:36:34 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: seagulls

Quote: lilredrooster

.


Skenes is on the mound for the Pirates with a league leading 2.16 era

the Rockies starter McCade Brown has never thrown a pitch in MLB before today

the Rockies are 16-48 on the road

the hapless Rockies lead the league in strikeouts and have the second lowest total runs scored in baseball this season, despite playing half their games in Coors Field,



Probably a bad idea to even mention this but I see threads like this all the time. This is by no means the worst example.

This is PUBLIC information. Gamblers, including degenerate long-term loser gamblers, know a lot of this stuff. Bad sports bettors are often not stupid. You can't simply look at a bunch of stats and expect to win.

All this information is factored into the line.

You need to ask yourself why you think you have an edge over the market. If you don't have an edge don't bet or expect to lose.
link to original post

I trust lilredrooster's advice/picks and data to be +EV. So much so that I have offered him a free roll using my bankroll at online casino's with discretion, unfortunately he declined.

There are times I have bet over 2k per game based on his data and advice.

I don't get down on stuff that won't allow bigger bets since it's not worth the time however I highly appreciate him posting his picks/data and advice and I'm confident it's +EV
link to original post



Gotta agree with Seagulls and disagree with Axel. Axel, when Lilred posts ‘A’s pitcher is great and Mets pitcher has sucked’ you don’t think the books were aware of that when making the line? Really?
I’ve been (happily!) tailing lilRed and doing basically the same thing. But am NOT under the illusion I’m really finding +EV bets using ‘regular’ lines without bonuses, boosts, etc…
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Joined: May 8, 2015
August 27th, 2025 at 1:04:49 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: seagulls

Quote: lilredrooster

.


Skenes is on the mound for the Pirates with a league leading 2.16 era

the Rockies starter McCade Brown has never thrown a pitch in MLB before today

the Rockies are 16-48 on the road

the hapless Rockies lead the league in strikeouts and have the second lowest total runs scored in baseball this season, despite playing half their games in Coors Field,



Probably a bad idea to even mention this but I see threads like this all the time. This is by no means the worst example.

This is PUBLIC information. Gamblers, including degenerate long-term loser gamblers, know a lot of this stuff. Bad sports bettors are often not stupid. You can't simply look at a bunch of stats and expect to win.

All this information is factored into the line.

You need to ask yourself why you think you have an edge over the market. If you don't have an edge don't bet or expect to lose.
link to original post

I trust lilredrooster's advice/picks and data to be +EV. So much so that I have offered him a free roll using my bankroll at online casino's with discretion, unfortunately he declined.

There are times I have bet over 2k per game based on his data and advice.

I don't get down on stuff that won't allow bigger bets since it's not worth the time however I highly appreciate him posting his picks/data and advice and I'm confident it's +EV
link to original post



Gotta agree with Seagulls and disagree with Axel. Axel, when Lilred posts ‘A’s pitcher is great and Mets pitcher has sucked’ you don’t think the books were aware of that when making the line? Really?
I’ve been (happily!) tailing lilRed and doing basically the same thing. But am NOT under the illusion I’m really finding +EV bets using ‘regular’ lines without bonuses, boosts, etc…
link to original post


nobody can say for sure whether my picks had an edge or did not
it's not a thing that can be proved or disproved
Soopoo's comment is an oversimplification - my analysis was not that simple - it had everything to do with how much a win would pay
I wouldn't bet because one team sucked and the other was great if I didn't think the payout was better than it should have been
I find it strange that Soopoo says he bet my picks but didn't think they had an edge
then why bother to bet them________?_________I just don't get it___________why did he bet my picks________?______for no reason______?
does Soopoo enjoy betting picks that he thinks are worthless______?
Axel has bet not just these, but other of my picks and done well - and thank you Axel for your comments
these latest picks went 4-1 with a 50.6% profit based on equal amounts bet on each game - yes, I'm well aware it's way too few to prove anything
but I'm really, really tired of this discussion and this will be my last post about it
I just don't care anymore if anyone thinks my picks are worthless
like the song says "obla di obla da life goes on blah"
I'm outta here - everyone can enjoy Soopoo's + EV picks - I'm done chattering

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 27, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SkinnyTony
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August 27th, 2025 at 1:14:50 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: seagulls

Quote: lilredrooster

.


Skenes is on the mound for the Pirates with a league leading 2.16 era

the Rockies starter McCade Brown has never thrown a pitch in MLB before today

the Rockies are 16-48 on the road

the hapless Rockies lead the league in strikeouts and have the second lowest total runs scored in baseball this season, despite playing half their games in Coors Field,



Probably a bad idea to even mention this but I see threads like this all the time. This is by no means the worst example.

This is PUBLIC information. Gamblers, including degenerate long-term loser gamblers, know a lot of this stuff. Bad sports bettors are often not stupid. You can't simply look at a bunch of stats and expect to win.

All this information is factored into the line.

You need to ask yourself why you think you have an edge over the market. If you don't have an edge don't bet or expect to lose.
link to original post

I trust lilredrooster's advice/picks and data to be +EV. So much so that I have offered him a free roll using my bankroll at online casino's with discretion, unfortunately he declined.

There are times I have bet over 2k per game based on his data and advice.

I don't get down on stuff that won't allow bigger bets since it's not worth the time however I highly appreciate him posting his picks/data and advice and I'm confident it's +EV
link to original post



Can you explain why you are confident that they are +EV? I am definitely open-minded but also skeptical and I don't see any reasoning that would convince me. But of course it's likely that I'm not seeing all the facts here.
AxelWolf
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lilredrooster
August 28th, 2025 at 5:25:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: seagulls

Quote: lilredrooster

.


Skenes is on the mound for the Pirates with a league leading 2.16 era

the Rockies starter McCade Brown has never thrown a pitch in MLB before today

the Rockies are 16-48 on the road

the hapless Rockies lead the league in strikeouts and have the second lowest total runs scored in baseball this season, despite playing half their games in Coors Field,



Probably a bad idea to even mention this but I see threads like this all the time. This is by no means the worst example.

This is PUBLIC information. Gamblers, including degenerate long-term loser gamblers, know a lot of this stuff. Bad sports bettors are often not stupid. You can't simply look at a bunch of stats and expect to win.

All this information is factored into the line.

You need to ask yourself why you think you have an edge over the market. If you don't have an edge don't bet or expect to lose.
link to original post

I trust lilredrooster's advice/picks and data to be +EV. So much so that I have offered him a free roll using my bankroll at online casino's with discretion, unfortunately he declined.

There are times I have bet over 2k per game based on his data and advice.

I don't get down on stuff that won't allow bigger bets since it's not worth the time however I highly appreciate him posting his picks/data and advice and I'm confident it's +EV
link to original post



Gotta agree with Seagulls and disagree with Axel. Axel, when Lilred posts ‘A’s pitcher is great and Mets pitcher has sucked’ you don’t think the books were aware of that when making the line? Really?
I’ve been (happily!) tailing lilRed and doing basically the same thing. But am NOT under the illusion I’m really finding +EV bets using ‘regular’ lines without bonuses, boosts, etc…
link to original post

I'm not talking about any one indivudual pick. Im talking about his overall advice/picks and data.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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lilredrooster
August 28th, 2025 at 6:23:05 AM permalink
I'm betting the Rooster is dismayed over the whole matter of what he is posting. I don't seem to remember him saying his picks are dynamite .... usually they aren't tout-like but just observations. Often he echoes the Wizard's ideas about "the squares" and that effect, usually just " somewhat lower HE" , not a claim it's +EV. Maybe sometimes he is saying he's surprised the oddsmakers are setting the odds like they did, without saying they're making a mistake

I like reading these posts and have probably never acted on them, something he doesn't expect I think
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
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August 28th, 2025 at 10:32:19 AM permalink
I enjoy reading people's picks and how they determine them. I especially appreciate people who post their picks in advance and don't post nonsense like my last trip was an incredible success, but security prevents me from offering details.
Some posts are proteins, some are fiber.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DRich
DRich
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August 28th, 2025 at 1:51:16 PM permalink
I think I like Nebraska tonight -6.5. If I was home I would make a small bet on it but since I am traveling I will share my amazing prognostication with all of you.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 28th, 2025 at 5:40:03 PM permalink
Replying to LilRed. I have tailed your picks not because I think they are + EV (but they may be) but because it’s fun. I’ve mentioned my bets on non +EV bets are REALLY SMALL.

I’ll try and explain why your (and my!) picks are likely to be -EV. I easily could tell that tonight the Red Sox were likely to beat the Orioles with Crochet pitching. But it’s above my pay grade to determine if they should be -200, or -180, or -150. Kind of a guess of course.

I did hit my Mets/strikeouts/under parlay yesterday. Had a different one that included an Alonso hit so did very well on the Mets yesterday.

And Lilred, in general I have NO confidence that my picks per se are +EV. What I have 100% confidence n is that using the offers (deposit match, profit boosts, risk free bets, etc.) I can turn -EV bets into + EV opportunities.
SkinnyTony
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August 28th, 2025 at 7:19:12 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I think I like Nebraska tonight -6.5. If I was home I would make a small bet on it but since I am traveling I will share my amazing prognostication with all of you.
link to original post



At this point I'll be happy if either team scores a TD. I didn't bet on the game
DRich
DRich
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August 29th, 2025 at 3:31:59 PM permalink
I have a small bet on Sam Houston +10 tonight vs UNLV. I watched the Sam Houston game last week and they looked better than expected and UNLV struggled with Idaho State last week. I will take the +10 just based on that limited information.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SOOPOO
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August 30th, 2025 at 3:57:37 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I have a small bet on Sam Houston +10 tonight vs UNLV. I watched the Sam Houston game last week and they looked better than expected and UNLV struggled with Idaho State last week. I will take the +10 just based on that limited information.
link to original post



You’ll never get that Washington back…..

Who do you like in OSU Texas? I have a bunch of +EV bets on the game due to every site offering boosts on it. I’ll do better with an OSU win. And over.
DRich
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August 30th, 2025 at 4:15:29 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I have a small bet on Sam Houston +10 tonight vs UNLV. I watched the Sam Houston game last week and they looked better than expected and UNLV struggled with Idaho State last week. I will take the +10 just based on that limited information.
link to original post



You’ll never get that Washington back…..

Who do you like in OSU Texas? I have a bunch of +EV bets on the game due to every site offering boosts on it. I’ll do better with an OSU win. And over.
link to original post



I have started my college football betting season at a perfect 0-2.

I am excited to watch the Texas vs OSU game but I will not have a bet on it. I have no way to evaluate this game without either team playing yet this year. "Superstar" QB Arch Manning making only his third start vs OSU QB who has never started a game. The Coaches poll has Texas #1 and OSU #2 which is the earliest a #1 vs #2 has ever played before. It is counterintuitive to my mind that the #1 and #2 teams both have unproven QB's. Being from Ohio I will be rooting for the Buckeyes but I think this is a game where either team could win comfortably or it can be a close game.

On paper the Texas defense looks like it has an advantage but OSU has the best offensive player in the country and the best defensive player in the country. These two teams played a good game in the semi finals last year but OSU had 14 starters drafted by the NFL this year. If anyone thinks they know who will win, I think they are crazy. OSU also has both new offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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August 30th, 2025 at 5:16:12 AM permalink
You raise an interesting point about Texas and Ohio State both having an untested quarterback.

But so does Alabama. (Ty Simpson)

And so does Georgia. Gunner Stockton has about the same experience asArch Manning

And so does Michigan.

Oregon hasn't even announced their QB yet, have they?

Tested QBs? Notre Dame, Penn State, LSU, Clemson, S. Carolina, Florida off the top of my head

Tennessee QB is a grey area. Joey Aguilar has played at a high level - at Appalachian St. And UCLA's QB has started for a year - at Tennessee - and looks like he has a high ceiling but has underwhelmed.

I can't wait for today's college football games.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DRich
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August 30th, 2025 at 5:33:32 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

You raise an interesting point about Texas and Ohio State both having an untested quarterback.

But so does Alabama. (Ty Simpson)

And so does Georgia. Gunner Stockton has about the same experience asArch Manning

And so does Michigan.

Oregon hasn't even announced their QB yet, have they?

Tested QBs? Notre Dame, Penn State, LSU, Clemson, S. Carolina, Florida off the top of my head

Tennessee QB is a grey area. Joey Aguilar has played at a high level - at Appalachian St. And UCLA's QB has started for a year - at Tennessee - and looks like he has a high ceiling but has underwhelmed.

I can't wait for today's college football games.
link to original post



I am excited about the LSU-Clemson game today because they both have strong QB's. I have very high hopes for Clemson this year and because I am usually wrong LSU will probably beat them.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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August 30th, 2025 at 7:07:45 AM permalink
The Yankees continue to feast on weaker teams, having won eleven of their last twelve games, while struggling against the top teams in the league. They've gotten closer to the BJs and have a big series with them this week.

For many years, the Yankees played a doubleheader on Labor Day to mark the unofficial end of summer and the start of the school year.
This year, it's a travel day.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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August 30th, 2025 at 11:30:15 AM permalink
Interesting DK offer. I’d like ideas on best way to use it. They call it ‘ghost parlay’ opportunity. Make a 4 or greater leg parlay, and if one leg loses they ELIMINATE that leg, essentially turning your bet into a 3 leg parlay. All legs must be -500 or longer. So I took 4 big faves (between -450 and -500) and one reasonable underdog (+200 or so). If all win I get around +500. If just the underdog loses I get around +110. Im sure this is markedly + EV. My hunch/guestimation is it’s between 40 and 50%?

Any thoughts?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 30th, 2025 at 12:37:34 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Interesting DK offer. I’d like ideas on best way to use it. They call it ‘ghost parlay’ opportunity. Make a 4 or greater leg parlay, and if one leg loses they ELIMINATE that leg, essentially turning your bet into a 3 leg parlay. All legs must be -500 or longer. So I took 4 big faves (between -450 and -500) and one reasonable underdog (+200 or so). If all win I get around +500. If just the underdog loses I get around +110. Im sure this is markedly + EV. My hunch/guestimation is it’s between 40 and 50%?

Any thoughts?
link to original post

Since you think it's +EV I'll give it a shot too. Show me the math guy! ha ha

The fact that the 'apparent house edge' increases is not to be ignored in parlays. The low chance that a -500 leg etc would lose is factored in as you know! How to parse out the chances that only one leg would lose, changing everything, is a challenge too.

I'll give it a shot but won't bet much

PS , i see I am restricted to $5 so that takes care of itself!
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Aug 30, 2025
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
unJon
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August 30th, 2025 at 1:52:37 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Interesting DK offer. I’d like ideas on best way to use it. They call it ‘ghost parlay’ opportunity. Make a 4 or greater leg parlay, and if one leg loses they ELIMINATE that leg, essentially turning your bet into a 3 leg parlay. All legs must be -500 or longer. So I took 4 big faves (between -450 and -500) and one reasonable underdog (+200 or so). If all win I get around +500. If just the underdog loses I get around +110. Im sure this is markedly + EV. My hunch/guestimation is it’s between 40 and 50%?

Any thoughts?
link to original post



Fun. Too busy to crank the math today. Gut tells me you are better off EV wise with two dogs than one dog.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SkinnyTony
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unJon
August 30th, 2025 at 2:18:54 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Interesting DK offer. I’d like ideas on best way to use it. They call it ‘ghost parlay’ opportunity. Make a 4 or greater leg parlay, and if one leg loses they ELIMINATE that leg, essentially turning your bet into a 3 leg parlay. All legs must be -500 or longer. So I took 4 big faves (between -450 and -500) and one reasonable underdog (+200 or so). If all win I get around +500. If just the underdog loses I get around +110. Im sure this is markedly + EV. My hunch/guestimation is it’s between 40 and 50%?

Any thoughts?
link to original post



Fun. Too busy to crank the math today. Gut tells me you are better off EV wise with two dogs than one dog.
link to original post


I'm too lazy to do it as well but I think you get the best edge by taking the longest odds (biggest underdogs) available assuming that the house edge doesn't go up as the odds get longer. I think, assuming no house edge on any of the legs, as the odds get longer (approach infinity) your edge approaches 400% in a 4 team parlay. Of course your chances of winning also approach 0 so we need to use Kelly or something.

This is done in my head during the commercial break of a football game so I could very well be completely wrong. If I had the back of an envelope handy I'd be a lot more confident.
avianrandy
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August 31st, 2025 at 12:32:24 PM permalink
Ohio State Texas was a close game. Ohio State won 14-7
DRich
DRich
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August 31st, 2025 at 2:31:49 PM permalink
Quote: avianrandy

Ohio State Texas was a close game. Ohio State won 14-7
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Underwhelming quarterback performances.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
DRich
DRich
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September 1st, 2025 at 7:20:31 PM permalink
Bill Belichick's team UNC is getting throttled. It is 34-7 in the third quarter and the stats are incredibly lopsided in TCU's favor.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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September 1st, 2025 at 9:46:20 PM permalink
The WWE is leaving Peacock for ESPN—the Sixth sign of the Apocalypse.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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September 2nd, 2025 at 9:56:35 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: avianrandy

Ohio State Texas was a close game. Ohio State won 14-7
link to original post



Underwhelming quarterback performances.
link to original post



Best QB performance I saw during the first weekend was Carson Beck, Miami. By far.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 2nd, 2025 at 12:22:41 PM permalink
I put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.

Love the Mets today. Rookie pitcher has been amazing through first 3 starts.

Got NRFI in Dodgers game.

And love the Red Sox.

Edit….. if it wasn’t for the 4 runs Pittsburgh scored in the first inning I would have won that bet

And if it wasn’t for the unlucky 4 home runs given up by Crochet it would have been an easy win for the Red Sox


Fade me!
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Sep 2, 2025
DRich
DRich
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September 2nd, 2025 at 2:10:04 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: DRich

Quote: avianrandy

Ohio State Texas was a close game. Ohio State won 14-7
link to original post



Underwhelming quarterback performances.
link to original post



Best QB performance I saw during the first weekend was Carson Beck, Miami. By far.
link to original post



I was more impressed with Nussmeyer. He was 28/38 with no interceptions against Clemson.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
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