Sports betting chatter
I don’t see how Anthony Davis doesn’t dominate the G league team that will be masquerading as the 76ers. Also only -4 pointspread.
I have James I’ve 19.5 /Lakers win at +120
Also Davis over 26.5 at -110
Lakers win at -190
Also have Lakers in my parlay boosted bets.
As always, if the Lakers are killing the 76ers early James/Davis might not play full games. A risk you have to take.
I’m doing pretty well on my AP bets here on Hard Rock. Slow upward climb. Way more variance than when I have the 5 books I use in NY.
(I can see smart WoVers hammering the 76ers!)
Quote: SOOPOOI think I found an opportunity tonight. Lakers only -190 over 76ers. Except they are not playing what I consider to be the 76ers. No Joel Embiid. No Paul George. No Andre Drummond. No K.J Martin. No Caleb Martin. And even key role player Gershwin Yabusele likely out.
I don’t see how Anthony Davis doesn’t dominate the G league team that will be masquerading as the 76ers. Also only -4 pointspread.
I have James I’ve 19.5 /Lakers win at +120
Also Davis over 26.5 at -110
Lakers win at -190
Also have Lakers in my parlay boosted bets.
As always, if the Lakers are killing the 76ers early James/Davis might not play full games. A risk you have to take.
I’m doing pretty well on my AP bets here on Hard Rock. Slow upward climb. Way more variance than when I have the 5 books I use in NY.
(I can see smart WoVers hammering the 76ers!)
link to original post
Why I should stick to my bonus/boost bets only….
Lakers missing a bunch of bench players. Early in first quarter they put in BRONNY JAMES. He is ONLY in the league because of his father. Lakers were up 7. It’s not much later and they are down 8. Bronny did contribute a turnover, a foul, and a missed defensive assignment. So it’s not like he did nothing.
Plus Davis is now out so that bet is kaput.
Edit. He’s not even playing tonight. Waste of time!
Today’s opportunity is Spurs win/ Wembanyama at +210. Spurs are favorites, and Wemby is slight favorite to get 25. I love +210.
I’ve been starting all my parlays recently with ‘’Maxey’ over points. He has a really long streak of at least 25. Yesterday even money was 28.5. He cleared that with plenty of time to spare. With (correlated!) 76ers win and (non correlated) Knicks win hit my boosted SGPMax on Hard Rock. I am limited to $50 max bet so not talking big $$, but I love to win!
Just bet Mahomes to get 5 rushing yards each quarter. +900. I can smell me losing the bet when he loses a few yards kneeling the game out…
Quote: SOOPOOCorrelated parlay of the day…. I’m getting Jokic 25/ Nuggets win at +195. I’m thinking fair is +150 or so.
Just bet Mahomes to get 5 rushing yards each quarter. +900. I can smell me losing the bet when he loses a few yards kneeling the game out…
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Cha Ching on the Jokic parlay. Got another one today. Knicks/Brunson 25. At +155. Feels like +125 is fair.
If it wasn’t for the 40 points the Eagles scored my SB bets would have won…. I did get lucky on a bunch of ‘over’ prop bets due to the garbage time ‘success’ of the Chiefs.
I hit my Hard Rock table tennis bet today! That’s $25 for bills, taxes, golf tees, etc…
I just bet on Cam Ward to be the number 1 pick. Hot even money. I think you ‘gotta’ take a QB even though some like the dual threat guy, or the edge rusher.
Quote: SOOPOO
I hit my Hard Rock table tennis bet today! That’s $25 for bills, taxes, golf tees, etc…
I won my Ping Pong bet too. I had Cmerda.
tuned into a soccer game. Have gained a bit of interest from betting on it, but watching I try to understand some of the rules. Seems 'offsides' rule is mostly that they can't get ahead of the ball, which however is always getting kicked back out of the zone ... this means they have to come back, but they just stroll back a lot of times ... you are not required to hurry I think
also learning about 'corners', which is a great thing to bet on when looking for somethig to add to a parlay
Quote: odiousgambitboy am I bored , raining now. Have a ton of stuff to do, can't make myself
I am bored too. I was ambitious and went and got a haircut today, that expended all of my energy so I doubt I will leave the bed the rest of the day. I will have to check and see if HardRock has any good boosts today so I can get some action.
I need NBA to be back. Just keep betting on Jokic. Apparently he is having best year in HISTORY of the NBA by ‘advanced statistics’. And still there are those yapping that Gilgeous-Alexander should be MVP.
I did make an even money bet on Cam Ward to be 1st pick. Even though there is huge hype on the two way player from Colorado, and Abdul Carter, the edge rusher, I think nowadays an above average but not great QB prospect still is coveted.
Draft trivia. The Chiefs have acquired two Bills first round picks recently. Did it work out for them?
Patrick Mahomes
Xavier Worthy
In a similar survey recently released, Nerdwallet states the average sports bettor wagered $3200 in 2024, with 40% claiming they finished the year ahead. DK has not released the number of people who made money with them last year.
NBA Thursday - first games for both after All Star break - neither team has played since 2/12
shooting may be cold especially on threes
it's a very high total - averaging points made and allowed for both teams I came up with 236
not including pushes Pacers have been under that total in 21 of the last 25 games; Grizzlies in 17 of the last 25
Memphis/Indiana under 249
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Quote: lilredrooster.
NBA Thursday - first games for both after All Star break - neither team has played since 2/12
shooting may be cold especially on threes
it's a very high total - averaging points made and allowed for both teams I came up with 236
not including pushes Pacers have been under that total in 21 of the last 25 games; Grizzlies in 17 of the last 25
Memphis/Indiana under 249
.
link to original post
‘Shooting may be hot especially on 3’s.’
See, I fixed that for you. These players take a pounding during games, and being well rested with nothing but time to practice a few thousand 3’s should make them shoot above their body beaten averages.
(I don’t really believe that, but it makes more sense than your take).
I’ll bet the under 249 if I can get that line. Those teams will be running up and down the court, so it WILL take bad shooting to win that under!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
NBA Thursday - first games for both after All Star break - neither team has played since 2/12
shooting may be cold especially on threes
it's a very high total - averaging points made and allowed for both teams I came up with 236
not including pushes Pacers have been under that total in 21 of the last 25 games; Grizzlies in 17 of the last 25
Memphis/Indiana under 249
.
link to original post
‘Shooting may be hot especially on 3’s.’
See, I fixed that for you. These players take a pounding during games, and being well rested with nothing but time to practice a few thousand 3’s should make them shoot above their body beaten averages.
(I don’t really believe that, but it makes more sense than your take).
I’ll bet the under 249 if I can get that line. Those teams will be running up and down the court, so it WILL take bad shooting to win that under!
link to original post
But it worked last year: https://nypost.com/2024/03/04/betting/betting-the-nba-under-totals-since-the-all-star-break-worth-a-fortune/
just checked - DraftKings has 249 right now - it's only Tuesday - if others see it as high as I do it may be bet down
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Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
NBA Thursday - first games for both after All Star break - neither team has played since 2/12
shooting may be cold especially on threes
it's a very high total - averaging points made and allowed for both teams I came up with 236
not including pushes Pacers have been under that total in 21 of the last 25 games; Grizzlies in 17 of the last 25
Memphis/Indiana under 249
.
link to original post
‘Shooting may be hot especially on 3’s.’
See, I fixed that for you. These players take a pounding during games, and being well rested with nothing but time to practice a few thousand 3’s should make them shoot above their body beaten averages.
(I don’t really believe that, but it makes more sense than your take).
I’ll bet the under 249 if I can get that line. Those teams will be running up and down the court, so it WILL take bad shooting to win that under!
link to original post
But it worked last year: https://nypost.com/2024/03/04/betting/betting-the-nba-under-totals-since-the-all-star-break-worth-a-fortune/
link to original post
Thanks! I just bet ‘under’ on all 10 games tonight. With the ‘’vig’, I need 6 of 10 to make a small profit.
I broke my losing streak at 20 last night. 3 leg parlay (boosted) hit at around 6-1. I think 4 of my 20 losses were slight favorites by the way.
One was a really BAD BEAT. Basically needed any Ford or Toyota to win the Daytona 500. Last lap only Chevy even near the front is William Byron. He’s fifth, with no realistic chance to pass the top 4 unless….. They crash, he avoids the crash, and NASCAR does NOT end the race immediately with a yellow flag since it’s in their ‘overtime’.
I’m hoping for a stock market gain today to salve my wounds.
using covers.com I just tracked the previous season from the link - the 2022/2023 season - after the All Star break
I got the unders winning in the first 60 games after the All Star break - 37-23
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I no longer think the unders are a great pick for 11 days after the All Star break
I just tracked the 2 seasons before those 2 that were tracked and got the unders breaking even for 120 games - going 29-31 and 31-29
so, I admit to my error - it isn't my first - won't be my last - apologies to all
the likely reason for the extreme win on the unders last season was a change in officiating - see link
I do still think my original pick - Memphis/Indiana on Thursday under 249 is a good one -
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/179419/how-an-officiating-change-altered-the-nba-betting-landscape/
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I no longer think the unders are a great pick for 11 days after the All Star break
I just tracked the 2 seasons before those 2 that were tracked and got the unders breaking even for 120 games - going 29-31 and 31-29
so, I admit to my error - it isn't my first - won't be my last - apologies to all
the likely reason for the extreme win on the unders last season was a change in officiating - see link
I do still think my original pick - Memphis/Indiana on Thursday under 249 is a good one -
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/179419/how-an-officiating-change-altered-the-nba-betting-landscape/
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First of all—. NO NEED to apologize! You posted some reasonable thoughts. Anyone who took one year’s slight edge as a Gospel deserves what he gets!
This thread is really all about this kind of ‘chatter’.
I’ll report on tonight’s ten games. If I win all ten or lose all ten it doesn’t prove or disprove your hypothesis.
watching Aston Villa vs Liverpool and slowly came to the realization that they don't stop play to show ads. They don't even cram in the 30 second spots when they could
If you like watching Live, soccer has to be the way to go!
Quote: odiousgambitSomething else I discovered about soccer,
watching Aston Villa vs Liverpool and slowly came to the realization that they don't stop play to show ads. They don't even cram in the 30 second spots when they could
If you like watching Live, soccer has to be the way to go!
link to original post
Ironically, the sport with the most dead air refuses to take full advantage.
ha haQuote: billryanQuote: odiousgambitSomething else I discovered about soccer,
watching Aston Villa vs Liverpool and slowly came to the realization that they don't stop play to show ads. They don't even cram in the 30 second spots when they could
If you like watching Live, soccer has to be the way to go!
link to original post
Ironically, the sport with the most dead air refuses to take full advantage.
link to original post
true enough, and the flopping is awful
but I will say trying to understand the rules is making it more interesting so I can watch it. Now I know the offsides rule plays out more on the matter of not allowing a player to get behind the defense* without the ball. The defense will generally form a line, so usually you have that to observe. The attacking team's players can run behind this line as soon as a ball is kicked that will go there, adding some excitement
* I mean the second to last player... the last player not counting the goalie, another way to say it
another pick for the NBA tonight
Hawks beat the Magic by 6 on the road 8 days ago - they're at home tonight
Hawks are 12-12 at home - the Magic are 10-19 on the road
the pick:
Hawks +1.5 over the Magic
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I'm 1-1 on my NBA picks here this month - try to get ahead with this one
Mavericks at home -5.5 over the Pelicans
Mavs are 17-11 at home - Pelicans are 4-23 away
Pelicans have lost 7 of their last 8 road games by more than 5.5 points
the last time the Pelicans played away against the Mavs they lost by 41
the pick:
Mavericks - 5.5 over Pelicans
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Quote: lilredrooster.
another pick for the NBA tonight
Hawks beat the Magic by 6 on the road 8 days ago - they're at home tonight
Hawks are 12-12 at home - the Magic are 10-19 on the road
the pick:
Hawks +1.5 over the Magic
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link to original post
Your analysis is WAY TOO SIMPLISTIC. I truly haven’t looked at it, but are YOU aware of who even played in that game? You list Magic as 10-19 on the road. Are you aware the Magic have two GREAT players in Banchero and F. Wagner? They are both playing now after being injured for a bunch of games. I’ll bet when BOTH are playing Magic are above .500 on the road.
Your Mavs analysis is also faulty. How can you not even MENTION that they are playing without Doncic, and now sadly for them, Davis?
In the NBA, without factoring in injuries (and sometimes trades) you can get a lot of faulty conclusions.
I see Magic beat the Hawks last night.
Time to start betting against the Spurs….
Quote: SOOPOOYour analysis is WAY TOO SIMPLISTIC.
you're correct - maybe I'll get lucky and get ahead with today's pic - I will consider your points in future picks if I make any
I didn't mention this but I put some value on those that tried to pick the winner at covers.com - 72% picked the Mavericks for today's game
I believe those interested enough to make their picks and post them on covers.com may have value
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
NBA Thursday - first games for both after All Star break - neither team has played since 2/12
shooting may be cold especially on threes
it's a very high total - averaging points made and allowed for both teams I came up with 236
not including pushes Pacers have been under that total in 21 of the last 25 games; Grizzlies in 17 of the last 25
Memphis/Indiana under 249
.
link to original post
‘Shooting may be hot especially on 3’s.’
See, I fixed that for you. These players take a pounding during games, and being well rested with nothing but time to practice a few thousand 3’s should make them shoot above their body beaten averages.
(I don’t really believe that, but it makes more sense than your take).
I’ll bet the under 249 if I can get that line. Those teams will be running up and down the court, so it WILL take bad shooting to win that under!
link to original post
But it worked last year: https://nypost.com/2024/03/04/betting/betting-the-nba-under-totals-since-the-all-star-break-worth-a-fortune/
link to original post
Thanks! I just bet ‘under’ on all 10 games tonight. With the ‘’vig’, I need 6 of 10 to make a small profit.
I broke my losing streak at 20 last night. 3 leg parlay (boosted) hit at around 6-1. I think 4 of my 20 losses were slight favorites by the way.
One was a really BAD BEAT. Basically needed any Ford or Toyota to win the Daytona 500. Last lap only Chevy even near the front is William Byron. He’s fifth, with no realistic chance to pass the top 4 unless….. They crash, he avoids the crash, and NASCAR does NOT end the race immediately with a yellow flag since it’s in their ‘overtime’.
I’m hoping for a stock market gain today to salve my wounds.
link to original post
It went 8/10 so did ok this year.
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
NBA Thursday - first games for both after All Star break - neither team has played since 2/12
shooting may be cold especially on threes
it's a very high total - averaging points made and allowed for both teams I came up with 236
not including pushes Pacers have been under that total in 21 of the last 25 games; Grizzlies in 17 of the last 25
Memphis/Indiana under 249
.
link to original post
‘Shooting may be hot especially on 3’s.’
See, I fixed that for you. These players take a pounding during games, and being well rested with nothing but time to practice a few thousand 3’s should make them shoot above their body beaten averages.
(I don’t really believe that, but it makes more sense than your take).
I’ll bet the under 249 if I can get that line. Those teams will be running up and down the court, so it WILL take bad shooting to win that under!
link to original post
But it worked last year: https://nypost.com/2024/03/04/betting/betting-the-nba-under-totals-since-the-all-star-break-worth-a-fortune/
link to original post
Thanks! I just bet ‘under’ on all 10 games tonight. With the ‘’vig’, I need 6 of 10 to make a small profit.
I broke my losing streak at 20 last night. 3 leg parlay (boosted) hit at around 6-1. I think 4 of my 20 losses were slight favorites by the way.
One was a really BAD BEAT. Basically needed any Ford or Toyota to win the Daytona 500. Last lap only Chevy even near the front is William Byron. He’s fifth, with no realistic chance to pass the top 4 unless….. They crash, he avoids the crash, and NASCAR does NOT end the race immediately with a yellow flag since it’s in their ‘overtime’.
I’m hoping for a stock market gain today to salve my wounds.
link to original post
It went 8/10 so did ok this year.
link to original post
Not on the lines I got when he made the post. I lost two by 1/2 point each.
Did win my one ‘big’ bet on under Cavs/Nets. The rest were all small to ‘follow’’ the picks.
The 76ers are dead. Just not buried yet. There was a play with Embiid driving to the basket yesterday. He was likely fouled on a close call. When ‘engaged’ in the game he would always gesticulate after such a non call. Yesterday he just turned around and mosied back to play defense. Looked to me like a guy who was playing an exhibition game.
If the most important ‘ability’ is ‘availability’, then ex-MVP Embiid is no longer valuable. What happens to him and the 76ers this off season will be interesting.
Their Paul George acquisition looks like a failure as well.
I like the Nets +11 over the 76ers - line currently available on DraftKings
6ers have lost 6 in a row
Nets just beat them at home on Wed. - they're on the road tonight
have to go way back to Jan. 4 to see 6ers beating anybody by greater than 11 points
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I like the Nets +11 over the 76ers - line currently available on DraftKings
6ers have lost 6 in a row
Nets just beat them at home on Wed. - they're on the road tonight
have to go way back to Jan. 4 to see 6ers beating anybody by greater than 11 points
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link to original post
Bad news for you. I agree! I posted about Embiid yesterday. But the Nets really suck, too. They are made up of a bunch of mid level talents. I don’t know how they are selling any tickets. Why not parlay your Nets bet with the under!!!
Yesterday, the HardRock boosted parlay hit. Warriors/Thunder/Rockets at +240. I accidentally bet it twice! Only close game was the Rockets.
I made ‘mistake’ as well taking Knicks over Cavs. 8.5 seemed juicy. When Knicks were down 40+ I wasn’t thrilled. I don’t think any starters played at all in the 4th quarter. Or much of it. Somehow Josh Hart (didn’t play) is just so important to the Knicks success. Will be betting against them until he returns.
the Nets had a bad losing streak that ended Jan. 2
in their last 8 games they are 6-2
they even beat the pretty tough Rockets twice in a row a couple of weeks ago once at home and once on the road
the Nets are better on the road then at home - 11-17 on the road and 9-18 at home -
they are 18-9-1 on the road ats
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Quote: SOOPOO
I made ‘mistake’ as well taking Knicks over Cavs. 8.5 seemed juicy. When Knicks were down 40+ I wasn’t thrilled. I don’t think any starters played at all in the 4th quarter. Or much of it. Somehow Josh Hart (didn’t play) is just so important to the Knicks success. Will be betting against them until he returns.
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I am still surprised how well the Cavs are playing considering a first year coach. Their run and gun style is fun to watch.
tonight - Grizzlies/Cavaliers under 250.5 - line currently available at DraftKings
it's a very high total
averaging the 2 teams points scored and points allowed I came up with 237
the Grizzlies have been under that total in 9 of their last 10 games - the Cavaliers in 8 of their last 10
they've played each other twice this season - both times well under that total
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Quote: lilredrooster.
tonight - Grizzlies/Cavaliers under 250.5 - line currently available at DraftKings
it's a very high total
averaging the 2 teams points scored and points allowed I came up with 237
the Grizzlies have been under that total in 9 of their last 10 games - the Cavaliers in 8 of their last 10
they've played each other twice this season - both times well under that total
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link to original post
You got a good number. The total is 248 at Hard Rock.
lost that one
Nuggets/Pacers under 246
gonna try another under on a high total
averaging points scored and allowed for both teams I come up with 234
Pacers are 7-3 under that total the last 10 games - Nuggets are 5-5
the 2 times they played each other this season they were way under that total
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Nuggets/Pacers under 246
the 2 times they played each other this season they were way under that total
To me, THAT info is valid. It goes to the style they play against each other. (As long as no major players were missing from previous games).
I’m placing my bet following you now.
Grizzlies at home - 8 over Suns
Grizzlies are really great at home - 21-6 - Suns are a losing team and are much worse on the road - 11-19
Grizzlies easily handled the Suns while away in their 2 previous games this season
didn't see anything worth mentioning on the injury report
in their last game the Suns on the road were crushed by 18 by the lowly Raptors
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Grizzlies at home - 8 over Suns
Grizzlies are really great at home - 21-6 - Suns are a losing team and are much worse on the road - 11-19
Grizzlies easily handled the Suns while away in their 2 previous games this season
didn't see anything worth mentioning on the injury report
in their last game the Suns on the road were crushed by 18 by the lowly Raptors
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link to original post
I’ll be going WITH LilRed on this one. I also just won my $20 ping pong bet! At +150. So $30 to use as I see fit!
(I’m ignoring my ridiculous loss yesterday which included Thunder money line….)
Celtics on the road - edit - changing this to a money line pick - Celtics -190 -
edit was made at 10:00 a.m.
Celts are a much better team than the Pistons
Celts are much better on the road than at home which is very unusual - they're 24-6 on the road winning 80%
Pistons are a little bit worse at home than on the road
Celts have won their last 6 games by double digits
Celts have won their last 3 times this season over the Pistons by 6, 10 and 24
Celts beat the winningest team in the NBA - the Cavs - by 7 on the road a few weeks ago
on the down side the Pistons have won 7 in a row - you can't have everything
not much to see on the injury report
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Celtics on the road - edit - changing this to a money line pick - Celtics -190 -
edit was made at 10:00 a.m.
Celts are a much better team than the Pistons
Celts are much better on the road than at home which is very unusual - they're 24-6 on the road winning 80%
Pistons are a little bit worse at home than on the road
Celts have won their last 6 games by double digits
Celts have won their last 3 times this season over the Pistons by 6, 10 and 24
Celts beat the winningest team in the NBA - the Cavs - by 7 on the road a few weeks ago
on the down side the Pistons have won 7 in a row - you can't have everything
not much to see on the injury report
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link to original post
Bad news for you. I agree with you. The Celtics look like a well oiled machine now with porzyngis healthy. I got an offer on Celtics/Tatum 20 at -120. Maxed it. Betting against home team on 7 game winning streak probably not my smartest bet of the year, but did it anyway.
Quote: billryanHow much is " maxed out?"
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I’ve mentioned before these +EV offers for me are virtually always limited. Hard Rock usually $50. Sometimes $25. Sometimes been as low as $10. This one was $50. I am not bragging about making big money, rather, I make very little. I think my daily EV at Hard Rock is between $10 and $20.
Quote: billryanUnderstood. It's all relative. At this point, $50 is a massive bet for me. Not so much a few years ago.
link to original post
Pistons killing the Celtics. I’m glad I’m limited….
Quote: lilredrooster.
Celtics
not much to see on the injury report
So last year’s FINALS MVP missing the game is ‘not much to see’? (Jaylen Brown)
Also missing valuable backup center Luke Kornet.
Brown being out virtually assured Tatum to get 20, but certainly hurt Celts chances to win.
My ‘regular’ 30% profit boost hit. Towns/Embiid out. So…. Hart over rebounds. Maxey and Brunson over points. Knicks money line. Knicks almost blew 19 point lead but Brunson dominated last two minutes.
looking back on it - it was a bad pick - I didn't see anything else I remotely liked - should have posted nothing
gonna give it a rest for a while - gonna try some other strategies without posting to first see how they do
very tough to get an edge - need to find something more creative
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Quote: lilredrooster.
looking back on it - it was a bad pick - I didn't see anything else I remotely liked - should have posted nothing
gonna give it a rest for a while - gonna try some other strategies without posting to first see how they do
very tough to get an edge - need to find something more creative
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link to original post
You shouldn't post your picks ahead of time- for security reasons.
