Sports betting chatter
I took the Colts and got +270 I think.
Other dogs that won were Cardinals and Texans.
Bet Rivers gives a free bet just for betting a 5 leg same game parlay. Without giving specific details, you can pick 100% correlated outcomes to get to 5 legs. I hit the one yesterday at 11-1.
They also keep giving out free bets on tennis betting with not much fuss.
I have Hurts as first TD scorer tonight. Need Eagles to get stopped at 1 yard line then they push him in….
the Boys got beat bad by the Cards - they were 11.5 faves
I watched the Cards horrible performance against the Commanders - really, really bad
the talking heads were really pumping up the Boys as being great
not that unusual, but again shows how wrong the public and the talking heads are pretty often
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The Giants beat the Cards.
The Cards romped on the Cowboys.
Somehow, we are supposed to look at those results and bet on the future.
Quote: billryanThe Cowboys whooped The Giants.
The Giants beat the Cards.
The Cards romped on the Cowboys.
Somehow, we are supposed to look at those results and bet on the future.
link to original post
This!!!!
All you are trying to do is use information to give you a slight edge if possible.
If they played tomorrow on a neutral field Dallas is still a 10 point favorite.
Quote: billryan
Somehow, we are supposed to look at those results and bet on the future.
I think the successful bettors are not just looking at the scores. Positional matchups are a huge factor for a winning football bettor.
going with Georgia State at home -1 over Troy
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Utah at Oregon St (-4). I must be missing something because this game should be closer to pickem. +4 with the Utes seems like a good bet to me.
Cincinnati at BYU pickem. This just looks like a great game of two pretty evenly matched teams.
Quote: DRichA couple of interesting games tonight.
Utah at Oregon St (-4). I must be missing something because this game should be closer to pickem. +4 with the Utes seems like a good bet to me.
Cincinnati at BYU pickem. This just looks like a great game of two pretty evenly matched teams.
link to original post
So I got Utah + 4.5 and I jumped on it literally thinking it was a computer error! Someone must know something you and I don’t know!
All 5 of my sportsbooks offered tons of risk free bets/odds boosts/ free bets on NCAA football this weekend. My parlays are ALL still live as I had Jacksonville St, the over in that game, and Tulsa. J St was down 14 but won by 7 in OT to cover!
Luckily I didn’t bet much on Ryder cup because what I did get was mostly on the USA team…..
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichA couple of interesting games tonight.
Utah at Oregon St (-4). I must be missing something because this game should be closer to pickem. +4 with the Utes seems like a good bet to me.
Cincinnati at BYU pickem. This just looks like a great game of two pretty evenly matched teams.
link to original post
So I got Utah + 4.5 and I jumped on it literally thinking it was a computer error! Someone must know something you and I don’t know!
All 5 of my sportsbooks offered tons of risk free bets/odds boosts/ free bets on NCAA football this weekend. My parlays are ALL still live as I had Jacksonville St, the over in that game, and Tulsa. J St was down 14 but won by 7 in OT to cover!
Luckily I didn’t bet much on Ryder cup because what I did get was mostly on the USA team…..
link to original post
Re Utes have they announced whether their QB1 is playing yet?
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichA couple of interesting games tonight.
Utah at Oregon St (-4). I must be missing something because this game should be closer to pickem. +4 with the Utes seems like a good bet to me.
Cincinnati at BYU pickem. This just looks like a great game of two pretty evenly matched teams.
link to original post
So I got Utah + 4.5 and I jumped on it literally thinking it was a computer error! Someone must know something you and I don’t know!
All 5 of my sportsbooks offered tons of risk free bets/odds boosts/ free bets on NCAA football this weekend. My parlays are ALL still live as I had Jacksonville St, the over in that game, and Tulsa. J St was down 14 but won by 7 in OT to cover!
Luckily I didn’t bet much on Ryder cup because what I did get was mostly on the USA team…..
link to original post
Re Utes have they announced whether their QB1 is playing yet?
link to original post
My assumption is that Rising is not playing.
what am I doing wrong?
I just parlayed a -155 with a -211 bet and they gave me +132 odds
which is 100/255 & 100/311 probability, right?
100/255 * 100/311 = 0.126095454258874
1/0.126095454258874 = 1.793
prob of winning is 1/1.793
fair odds should be 1:0.793 to win [probably where I’m going wrong]*
1:0.793 versus x:100 to get American odds
so 0.793 times what = 100?
0.793 * x = 100
x = 126.1
so I’m getting that they should have given me +126 odds. I think I am doing something wrong, +132 is more rather than less generous! can anyone help?
>>>
* I may be going wrong here, but ½ prob pays 1:1 fair odds
and 1/3 prob pays 2:1, 1/4 pays 3:1
if 1/x then it seems you subtract 1 from x ??
Quote: odiousgambitwanted to check DK for parlay accuracy [that they don't try to increase house edge]
what am I doing wrong?
I just parlayed a -155 with a -211 bet and they gave me +132 odds
which is 100/255 & 100/311 probability, right?
100/255 * 100/311 = 0.126095454258874
1/0.126095454258874 = 1.793
prob of winning is 1/1.793
fair odds should be 1:0.793 to win [probably where I’m going wrong]*
1:0.793 versus x:100 to get American odds
so 0.793 times what = 100?
0.793 * x = 100
x = 126.1
so I’m getting that they should have given me +126 odds. I think I am doing something wrong, +132 is more rather than less generous! can anyone help?
>>>
*[size=9= I may be going wrong here, but ½ prob pays 1:1 fair odds
and 1/3 prob pays 2:1, 1/4 pays 3:1
if 1/x then it seems you subtract 1 from x ??
link to original post
Just use this: https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/
ETA: if you must with formula it’s
(100*100/155 + 100) * 100/211 + (100*100/155 + 100)
Quote: unJonJust use this: https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/
ETA: if you must with formula it’s
(100*100/155 + 100) * 100/211 + (100*100/155 + 100)
link to original post
thanks
but now I have 4 different answers
Quote: odiousgambitQuote: unJonJust use this: https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/
ETA: if you must with formula it’s
(100*100/155 + 100) * 100/211 + (100*100/155 + 100)
link to original post
thanks
but now I have 4 different answers
link to original post
Just imagine you bet 100. After wining -155 you have your original 100 + 100*100/155
Then you bet that full amount through the -211 and win so you get the stake returned of (100 + 100*100/155) plus the winnings of (100 + 100*100/155)*100/211.
So now you know starting stake of 100 and ending stake. From there you can convert it to American odds.
meanwhile too bad the calculator doesn't work [either that or I don't know how to use it right]
if that means bet $100 , win $142.49, then that is +142 right?
that would mean DK is increasing the house edge
Quote: odiousgambit(100*100/155 + 100) * 100/211 + (100*100/155 + 100) = 242.49
if that means bet $100 , win $142.49, then that is +142 right?
that would mean DK is increasing the house edge
link to original post
They probably are. They give Odds Boost promotions on parlays all the time, so there probably is more base juice on parlays there as a rule.
Just do a comparison and find out. Let's go to two different sites and set up a no-promotion parlay at each. We just need to find something where the base lines are the same (or close) and then we will know. I guess we won't know as an absolute rule, but we will know it sometimes happens, which I'd assume anyway.
On PlaySugarhouse, I can take Falcons +3 at -110 and same-game parlay it with Christian Kirk to score an anytime TD at +160 to get +600.
On DraftKings, I can take Falcons +3 at -108 and same-game parlay it with Christian Kirk to score an anytime TD at +170 to get +500.
Wait a minute. What? If I am getting a better price on both the Falcons (-108 is better than -110) and on Christian Kirk (+170 is better than +160) individually,, then why is Sugarhouse going to pay me +600 while DraftKings is only going to pay +500 on a SGP? That's a difference of $100 on a $100 bet. Pretty significant.
DraftKings is probably offering a profit boost on SGP, or maybe a profit boost in general. When they do, it's usually 25%, so that effectively would make the line +625.
Ergo, the line would be better than what Sugarhouse is offering, but that makes sense, because both of the lines are individually better for the player (as if single bets) than the ones at Sugarhouse, so logic would imply that the parlay should pay more than the one at Sugarhouse.
That's why it's important to always shop and to give these things consideration even when you are trying to bet a promotion straight up. Considering that DraftKings is effectively offering me +625 on this (considering the boost), but Sugarhouse is going to give me +600 without a boost, that tells me that the DK boost probably isn't actually giving me positive value on this particular bet.
one more NCAA pick for today - game in about one hour
James Madison - 2.5 over South Alabama
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I will say that betMGM was not increasing the house edge on parlays when I tested them maybe 2 yrs ago. Is a site obligated to keep it honest? I don't know, but transparency would be appreciated!
Yes I started checking DK for a reason*, but my recent bad results are due to simply losing a bunch of bets ... better payoffs wouldn't have helped! but I am not going to continue with parlays if they skim off even more edge [unless the offer is for SGPs as a lot are]
* talking to someone about betting online and had to admit I hadn't checked DK parlays
Quote: odiousgambit(100*100/155 + 100) * 100/211 + (100*100/155 + 100) = 242.49
if that means bet $100 , win $142.49, then that is +142 right?
that would mean DK is increasing the house edge
link to original post
Yes exactly. And that’s what the parlay calculator spits out:
Quote: odiousgambitmission, gotta have time to follow up. And get my picks in too! You don't have to send a reminder this week, I'm on it
I will say that betMGM was not increasing the house edge on parlays when I tested them maybe 2 yrs ago. Is a site obligated to keep it honest? I don't know, but transparency would be appreciated!
Yes I started checking DK for a reason*, but my recent bad results are due to simply losing a bunch of bets ... better payoffs wouldn't have helped! but I am not going to continue with parlays if they skim off even more edge [unless the offer is for SGPs as a lot are]
* talking to someone about betting online and had to admit I hadn't checked DK parlays
link to original post
They're not, 'Being dishonest,' is the thing.
The lines can be whatever they want them to be. The parlay lines can be whatever they want them to be. If they want to parlay a -108 and a +170 and give you an SGP line of +220, then they haven't lied, they've just given you an obviously ridiculous line. They don't have any sort of legal requirement NOT to give clearly ridiculous lines, but fortunately, they do (generally) have other books to compete with. Even where they don't; I don't think they would make the lines that MUCH worse in New Hampshire, where they literally have ZERO in-state competition, than elsewhere. They're probably the same lines.
DK has exclusivity there because they give the state either 49% or 51%; I forget which of the two gets the 51%. That's significantly higher than the online sportsbook revenue tax anywhere else.
Anyway, it's just for a person to know that promo exists and use it if they want that particular parlay. It's also for them to comparison shop. If I was goofing off with those things, then what I would do is assume the handicappers know their stuff and would create one where I have it significantly better than what the other books are offering without promotion. +625 v. +600...isn't that.
Lubin VS Ramos (-450)
I was dumbfounded when the Rigged Judges made a unanimous decision for Lubin.
My wife said at the end of the fight obviously Ramos won. I said you never know when it comes to Judges I have seen them make really dumb decisions.
She left the room just before the announcement and didn't believe me when I told her Luibin won, she thought for sure I was messing with her.
The experts and 70 percent of the viewers thought for sure Ramos was the Winner.
Even Boxer Canelo getting ready to fight the main event had a WTF look on his face. Crazy S***.
First, we may find out that I was ranting about something that wasn’t true, in other words I made an error reporting it somehow, even though I copied and pasted. So let me make some different-game parlay set-ups [I don’t have to actually bet] and carefully copy/paste for no errors, then do it with several same-game parlays. Prior to beginning, I have a suspicion that SGPs may be the ones they mess with more, and maybe different-game type is not altered odds at all.
First, diff-games. I will copy/paste leaving in some of the bric-a-brac:
JAX Jaguars
Moneyline
ATL Falcons @ JAX Jaguars
Game played at neutral venue - London, U.K.
−175
…
PHI Eagles
Moneyline
WAS Commanders @ PHI Eagles
−440
…
2 Pick Parlay −109
summary, parlaying -175 with -440 yielding a -109 DK odds
putting in $100 it calculates $192.85 payoff incl returned wager
using the vegasinsider calc, double checking correct entry, it gets $92.86
Thanks Unjon for finding the calculator
cheated out of a penny? I’ll give em a pass
__
Next,
CIN Bengals
Moneyline
CIN Bengals @ TEN Titans
−155
…
CLE Browns
Moneyline
BAL Ravens @ CLE Browns
−135
…
2 Pick Parlay +186
$100 yields $286.37
summary, parlaying -155 with -135 and DK odds are +186
paying 286.37 with returned wager
vegasinsider calc gives me $186.38
they want that penny at DK
Again they get a pass from me
__
Conclusion: DK is not messing with different-game parlays
Okay so now we want to check the same-game parlays. New post probaby a good idea
Quote: AxelWolfEarlier tonight Co main Event
Lubin VS Ramos (-450)
I was dumbfounded when the Rigged Judges made a unanimous decision for Lubin.
My wife said at the end of the fight obviously Ramos won. I said you never know when it comes to Judges I have seen them make really dumb decisions.
She left the room just before the announcement and didn't believe me when I told her Luibin won, she thought for sure I was messing with her.
The experts and 70 percent of the viewers thought for sure Ramos was the Winner.
Even Boxer Canelo getting ready to fight the main event had a WTF look on his face. Crazy S***.
link to original post
the press is beating up the Judges for the decision
the link says that Lubin landed 53 fewer punches than Ramos
crooked as you suggest______?______definitely possible, or maybe even probable
https://www.boxingscene.com/erickson-lubin-secures-controversial-decision-win-over-jesus-ramos--178148
.
2 Picks
CIN Bengals @ TEN Titans
CIN BengalsMoneyline
Under 41.5Total
+228
payout with $100 wager returned, $328
summary, -155 parlayed with -110 yields +228 SGP DK odds
I in fact could not copy/paste the -155 and -110 which do not show on the bet slip. Double checked this.
Vegasinsider results are $214.08 *sigh* … what’s going on?
I’ll try to use the Unjon formula,
is (100*100/155 + 100) * 100/110 + (100*100/155 + 100) correct?
an online calc. gives me 314.076 which concurs with Vegasinsider
now DK is pumping the odds for the player. OK!
__
next SGP,
this one uses alternative lines for the game Total points, something I often use
2 Picks
SEA Seahawks @ NY Giants
SEA SeahawksMoneyline
Under 56.5Total Alternate
+122
payout $222 with $100 wager returned
summary, SGPing -130 with -359 , double-checked, gives +122 DK odds
vegasinsider gets $126.21 which would be +126 instead of +122
OK now we have DK clipping the payout
Is this because I used an alternative line?
>>>
So, DK either has a faulty way of calculating SGPs, or intentionally messes with them, or there is a glitch I keep running into.
Overall conclusion: I think using the calculator each time a player uses any parlay at DK is a good idea. Since for SGPs in one case it went to player benefit, the glitch or whatever it is makes it unlikely DK does it on purpose? Maybe for alternative lines you should be careful, or if you find this exhausting enough , like I do, forget alternative lines!
SEA Seahawks @ NY Giants
SEA SeahawksMoneyline
Under 47Total
+234
parlay of -130 and -108
+234 is a clipped odds payout and it's not alternative lines, vegasinsider gets +240
new conclusion: you just don't know, you better check it and decide if you're going for it or not. Parlays are very useful for fine tuning your bets but you don't want to go for the hokey doke either
the linked site tracks the public consensus picks
I tracked the first 3 weeks of the NFL and when it's 65% or greater the public pick went 8-1 - proves nothing of course - but kinna interesting
here are the top consensus picks for today - 65% or greater - as you might guess all faves - let's see how the public picks do this week
Eagles - 9.5
Chiefs - 9.5
Vikings -4.5
Bengals -2.5
Jaguars -3
Chargers -6
https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus
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Here's the deal, I have been running really hot online offshore, especially well on my 1k bets. My sports Account manager even noted that to me(Yuck)Quote: lilredroosterQuote: AxelWolfEarlier tonight Co main Event
Lubin VS Ramos (-450)
I was dumbfounded when the Rigged Judges made a unanimous decision for Lubin.
My wife said at the end of the fight obviously Ramos won. I said you never know when it comes to Judges I have seen them make really dumb decisions.
She left the room just before the announcement and didn't believe me when I told her Luibin won, she thought for sure I was messing with her.
The experts and 70 percent of the viewers thought for sure Ramos was the Winner.
Even Boxer Canelo getting ready to fight the main event had a WTF look on his face. Crazy S***.
link to original post
the press is beating up the Judges for the decision
the link says that Lubin landed 53 fewer punches than Ramos
crooked as you suggest______?______definitely possible, or maybe even probable
https://www.boxingscene.com/erickson-lubin-secures-controversial-decision-win-over-jesus-ramos--178148
.
link to original post
A friend suggested I use this game as a hedge rollover wager. His suggestion was(as always)solid, and gave up little value. I bet thousands on this fight, but I really wanted/needed Ramo since I would get my cash from a B&M. I even had to call my online sports account manager and ask him to raise my limits for this fight.
He is probably thinking... WTF... Axel knew the fix was in 🤣.
But while watching the fight I was 90% confident it was going to Ramo thus my bitching. Yeah, I know this BS happens, I have seen worse, but My Wife is still like WTF! She hasn't had the pleasure of seeing this sort of blatant sports shenanigans. She actually helped put in the bets and she knew it was important for Ramo to win and why.
Just as she's enjoying watching sports more and learning more about sports betting, this happens.
Quote: lilredrooster.
the linked site tracks the public consensus picks
I tracked the first 3 weeks of the NFL and when it's 65% or greater the public pick went 8-1 - proves nothing of course - but kinna interesting
here are the top consensus picks for today - 65% or greater - as you might guess all faves - let's see how the public picks do this week
Eagles - 9.5
Chiefs - 9.5
Vikings -4.5
Bengals -2.5
Jaguars -3
Chargers -6
https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus
.
link to original post
I think more interesting would be tracking if public consensus is always on the favorites like that. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is.
As of this morning, she's officially jaded when it comes to boxing. I'm not sure if she thought about the fact that this can happen in MMA/UFC as well.Quote: AxelWolfHere's the deal, I have been running really hot online offshore, especially well on my 1k bets. My sports Account manager even noted that to me(Yuck)Quote: lilredroosterQuote: AxelWolfEarlier tonight Co main Event
Lubin VS Ramos (-450)
I was dumbfounded when the Rigged Judges made a unanimous decision for Lubin.
My wife said at the end of the fight obviously Ramos won. I said you never know when it comes to Judges I have seen them make really dumb decisions.
She left the room just before the announcement and didn't believe me when I told her Luibin won, she thought for sure I was messing with her.
The experts and 70 percent of the viewers thought for sure Ramos was the Winner.
Even Boxer Canelo getting ready to fight the main event had a WTF look on his face. Crazy S***.
link to original post
the press is beating up the Judges for the decision
the link says that Lubin landed 53 fewer punches than Ramos
crooked as you suggest______?______definitely possible, or maybe even probable
https://www.boxingscene.com/erickson-lubin-secures-controversial-decision-win-over-jesus-ramos--178148
.
link to original post
A friend suggested I use this game as a hedge rollover wager. His suggestion was(as always)solid, and gave up little value. I bet thousands on this fight, but I really wanted/needed Ramo since I would get my cash from a B&M. I even had to call my online sports account manager and ask him to raise my limits for this fight.
He is probably thinking... WTF... Axel knew the fix was in 🤣.
But while watching the fight I was 90% confident it was going to Ramo thus my bitching. Yeah, I know this BS happens, I have seen worse, but My Wife is still like WTF! She hasn't had the pleasure of seeing this sort of blatant sports shenanigans. She actually helped put in the bets and she knew it was important for Ramo to win and why.
Just as she's enjoying watching sports more and learning more about sports betting, this happens.
link to original post
Quote: AxelWolfAs of this morning, she's officially jaded when it comes to boxing. I'm not sure if she thought about the fact that this can happen in MMA/UFC as well.Quote: AxelWolfHere's the deal, I have been running really hot online offshore, especially well on my 1k bets. My sports Account manager even noted that to me(Yuck)Quote: lilredroosterQuote: AxelWolfEarlier tonight Co main Event
Lubin VS Ramos (-450)
I was dumbfounded when the Rigged Judges made a unanimous decision for Lubin.
My wife said at the end of the fight obviously Ramos won. I said you never know when it comes to Judges I have seen them make really dumb decisions.
She left the room just before the announcement and didn't believe me when I told her Luibin won, she thought for sure I was messing with her.
The experts and 70 percent of the viewers thought for sure Ramos was the Winner.
Even Boxer Canelo getting ready to fight the main event had a WTF look on his face. Crazy S***.
link to original post
the press is beating up the Judges for the decision
the link says that Lubin landed 53 fewer punches than Ramos
crooked as you suggest______?______definitely possible, or maybe even probable
https://www.boxingscene.com/erickson-lubin-secures-controversial-decision-win-over-jesus-ramos--178148
.
link to original post
A friend suggested I use this game as a hedge rollover wager. His suggestion was(as always)solid, and gave up little value. I bet thousands on this fight, but I really wanted/needed Ramo since I would get my cash from a B&M. I even had to call my online sports account manager and ask him to raise my limits for this fight.
He is probably thinking... WTF... Axel knew the fix was in 🤣.
But while watching the fight I was 90% confident it was going to Ramo thus my bitching. Yeah, I know this BS happens, I have seen worse, but My Wife is still like WTF! She hasn't had the pleasure of seeing this sort of blatant sports shenanigans. She actually helped put in the bets and she knew it was important for Ramo to win and why.
Just as she's enjoying watching sports more and learning more about sports betting, this happens.
link to original post
link to original post
I’ve been burned and benefited from bad judging in UFC numerous times.
Keep in mind that if DK is doing a little trimming on SGP, you’re going to see the effects more the bigger the +LINE, imo. That’s not a rule for every single game or anything, just generally speaking.
On parlays from different events you can use the calculator to see if the odds are ‘clipped’.
But on same gameparlays, there is often correlation, so it’s way more complicated.
Easy example….. The kicker in the Miami game was +1,000,000 to have over 9.5 extra points.
And the rookie RB Achane was +1,000,000 to have 4 touchdowns. Do you see how you can’t just enter those into the calculator?
Had to make a ‘prop’ bet parlay on BetRivers to get a good bonus. Read choices and let wifey pick. Had Mahomes over 16.5 yds rushing. And Hall over 52.5 yds rushing. Hall was barely used and Jets were down…. He broke a 40 or so yd run to creep over the number.
Mahomes had 17 late in 4th quarter. What often happens? At the end of the game the winning QB kneels and gets a few minus yards….. luckily he also broke a big run right before the game ended…. so his 3 kneeldowns made no difference.
And fun one for me…. Canelo and Bills to win was a boosted parlay!
Mahomes screwed me by not scoring a touchdown at the end of the game, however, it was refreshing to know no gamblers influenced him. Or did they, for the other side of the bet? LOLQuote: SOOPOOCha Ching! Hit on Commanders to beat Eagles at +320ish. The DK ‘up 10 you win’ promo.
Had to make a ‘prop’ bet parlay on BetRivers to get a good bonus. Read choices and let wifey pick. Had Mahomes over 16.5 yds rushing. And Hall over 52.5 yds rushing. Hall was barely used and Jets were down…. He broke a 40 or so yd run to creep over the number.
Mahomes had 17 late in 4th quarter. What often happens? At the end of the game the winning QB kneels and gets a few minus yards….. luckily he also broke a big run right before the game ended…. so his 3 kneeldowns made no difference.
And fun one for me…. Canelo and Bills to win was a boosted parlay!
link to original post
well I just thought that not allowing certain parlays was what they did [they do that] I didn't think they messed with the odds.Quote: SOOPOOOdious….
On parlays from different events you can use the calculator to see if the odds are ‘clipped’.
But on same gameparlays, there is often correlation, so it’s way more complicated.
Easy example….. The kicker in the Miami game was +1,000,000 to have over 9.5 extra points.
And the rookie RB Achane was +1,000,000 to have 4 touchdowns. Do you see how you can’t just enter those into the calculator?
link to original post
I came to certain conclusions, did you read the posts? For TLDR, I summarize at the end
Quote: odiousgambitwell I just thought that not allowing certain parlays was what they did [they do that] I didn't think they messed with the odds.Quote: SOOPOOOdious….
On parlays from different events you can use the calculator to see if the odds are ‘clipped’.
But on same gameparlays, there is often correlation, so it’s way more complicated.
Easy example….. The kicker in the Miami game was +1,000,000 to have over 9.5 extra points.
And the rookie RB Achane was +1,000,000 to have 4 touchdowns. Do you see how you can’t just enter those into the calculator?
link to original post
I came to certain conclusions, did you read the posts? For TLDR, I summarize at the end
link to original post
Another example for you. Let’s say Georgia is 40 pt fave over Columbia. And over/under is 54.
Georgia -40 / over 54 parlay might be +220
Georgia -40/ under 54 parlay might be +330.
The O/U 54 as a stand alone bet is the usual -110 either side. But over correlates more with a Georgia pointspread win.
And under with a Georgia pointspread loss.
Maybe I’m fooling myself, but I think I find many examples where the books DONT properly figure out the correlations.
When you bet on McCaffrey over 3.5TDs how much extra do you want from 49ers moneyline? Nada!
Have Seahawks half/ML in parlays …. last leg is Jags +5.5 over Bills…. Jags being over in London allows (I think?) them to be used to the time change better than the Bills who aren’t even there yet…..
Had Ravens over Browns after Chubb injury and was unaware Watson wasn’t playing…. So got lucky…. But I think the info on Watson not playing was not available to the general public…. Hmmmm
Best bet last night was Jones to throw an interception boosted to +200! That was a +EV bet that cashed. My correlated parlay that hit was Lockett under receiving yards and Walker over rushing yards.
Quote: SOOPOO
Have Seahawks half/ML in parlays …. last leg is Jags +5.5 over Bills…. Jags being over in London allows (I think?) them to be used to the time change better than the Bills who aren’t even there yet…..
link to original post
I had this same thought over the weekend. Then I saw the +5.5 line and thought the oddsmakers have incorporated that effect into the line already!
Just plugged same on DraftKings and it’s +245.
Guerrero to get an RBI as a single bet is +175!
Quote: SOOPOOBet MGM has I think worst Lions Boost ever today. Blue Jays +1.5 runs/ Guerrero RBI is ‘boosted ‘ to +160.
Just plugged same on DraftKings and it’s +245.
Guerrero to get an RBI as a single bet is +175!
link to original post
Do you know what I would do if I owned a store and wanted to sell you something for $30?
I'd make it $40 retail and announce I was having a 25% off sale.
Quote: Mission146Quote: SOOPOOBet MGM has I think worst Lions Boost ever today. Blue Jays +1.5 runs/ Guerrero RBI is ‘boosted ‘ to +160.
Just plugged same on DraftKings and it’s +245.
Guerrero to get an RBI as a single bet is +175!
link to original post
Do you know what I would do if I owned a store and wanted to sell you something for $30?
I'd make it $40 retail and announce I was having a 25% off sale.
link to original post
Give the people what they want. Make it a $100 and have a 70% off sale. It's not how much you spend that matters, it is how much you save. Who won't spend $30 to save $70? It's a no-brainer.
Quote: Mission146Quote: SOOPOOBet MGM has I think worst Lions Boost ever today. Blue Jays +1.5 runs/ Guerrero RBI is ‘boosted ‘ to +160.
Just plugged same on DraftKings and it’s +245.
Guerrero to get an RBI as a single bet is +175!
link to original post
Do you know what I would do if I owned a store and wanted to sell you something for $30?
I'd make it $40 retail and announce I was having a 25% off sale.
link to original post
I believe this is a test. To see if they call something ‘Lion’s Boost’ how much will be bet on it even if it is ridiculously bad. There have been many Lion’s Boosts which are clearly +EV. Yesterday’s hit…. Phil’s ML/Stott hit. +165 if I remember. Correlated of course.
All of the sites are now offering VERY + EV boosts, but on bets that might normally be -200, offering even money. And limiting me to $10. So the +EV is really around $3.
re the dramatic increase in legalized gambling - much of it sports betting
the dark side of what so many of us (including me) are so enthusiastic about
many are getting crushed
from the article:
"An extensive report by Bloomberg cataloged the harms since legalization: Sixty percent of industry profits come from the top 5 percent of users; the industry, supposedly regulated, has an estimated 36,000 children addicted to it; the government estimates 8 percent of suicides are gambling related."
https://www.vox.com/23641580/draftkings-fanduel-sports-betting-gambling-problems-march-madness
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Quote: lilredrooster.
re the dramatic increase in legalized gambling - much of it sports betting
the dark side of what so many of us (including me) are so enthusiastic about
many are getting crushed
from the article:
"An extensive report by Bloomberg cataloged the harms since legalization: Sixty percent of industry profits come from the top 5 percent of users; the industry, supposedly regulated, has an estimated 36,000 children addicted to it; the government estimates 8 percent of suicides are gambling related."
https://www.vox.com/23641580/draftkings-fanduel-sports-betting-gambling-problems-march-madness
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link to original post
Definitely. This comes as no surprise.
Certainly, the individual states were well-aware of the potential for gambling addiction when they licensed and regulated such sites. Of course, these same states will make a show of paying into gambling addiction treatment programs (and having the companies do same) that will pale in comparison to the revenues raked in by the states.
Honestly, you could knock me over with a feather that 60% of industry profits come from 5% of users. I would have guessed closer to 80-90%. Of course, what you really want is for a major whale with a deep bank account to really get hooked, preferably a few. Could you imagine a multi-millionaire who drops one or a couple million to an online casino in a year? That's definitely the exception, but it happens.
Oh well. Their money, their decision and they can always try to get help, if they wish. Other people have certainly beaten gambling addiction, so they will not be the first.
As far as the children are concerned, I'm surprised if it's that low. I guess that 36,000 is mostly based on extrapolating to a number based on known cases.
What I think is the most likely scenario for children, as far as state-regulated sites go, is that they somehow setup an account and use their parents payment credentials to deposit and play. I'm honestly not sure how they would get the money out (if they withdraw at all) but perhaps the parents have some sort of PayPal account that the kid can use to funnel money to one of their own accounts, but the parent doesn't actually look at their PayPal account very often.
I can tell you that even the regulated online casinos don't give a s*** to verify anything about you until you go to cash out.
I would also suspect that, in many cases when these kids get caught, the parents do not press charges or mention it to the state in any other way. They're also claiming 36,000 estimated children are addicted though, which seems like a bit of a spurious claim. By what metrics do they declare children to be, 'Addicted?' Obviously, WAY more children than that are playing at regulated sites.
As far as the suicide rate goes, a suicide is just a suicide. I imagine, for many of them, were it not due to gambling, then they would commit suicide for some other reason. Naturally, some of the suicides are almost certainly exclusive to gambling.
some NCAA picks for today_______________and NFL picks for tomorrow that the public picked at 65% or greater
I don't really believe that these NFL picks have value but so for they're 11- 4 for the year so far - so I could be wrong
I will post them until they fall back to .500 if they do that
Temple + 14 over UTSA
EMU - 2.5 over Ball State
Arkansas State + 15.5 over Troy
Alabama - 2.5 over Texas A&M
USF - 3.5 over UAB
Colorado -3.5 over ASU____________________glta
Dolphins - 12.5_________75%
Bills - 5.5__________71%
49ers -3.5___________________68%
Lions - 9.5_______________________________65%
https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus
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Rutgers + 13
Va tech + 23.5
Iowa -2.5
Kansas +2
going to add on NCAA pick - Maryland + 17.5 over Ohio State - starts in less than one hour
Maryland has crushed everybody they've played so far this year -
will they fold now that they're playing a big time team or will they roll_____________________________________let's see
will be fun to watch - I went to MD back in the day -
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LSU/Missouri over 64
Boise St -9.5
