Mission146
Mission146
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January 3rd, 2022 at 8:02:52 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Good analysis. Seems like Indy scenario 2 as reported by CBS isn’t then complete as they Indy lose and Ravens could win but Miami or Browns could also win . . .
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Thank you!

I agree that it’s incomplete, but examining every possibility would basically take a book. To that point, we’re even assuming that teams either win or lose every game and aren’t even looking at ties. I think CBS might have been going for something more like, “The Colts are definitely in if these things happen.”
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizard
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Mission146
January 3rd, 2022 at 9:02:49 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I’m going to try to dissect it, so here we go:
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Great post Mission!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
kewlj
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Mission146
January 3rd, 2022 at 9:18:21 PM permalink
There is a very odd scenario in the NFC.

Currently SF is the 6th seed, the Eagles the 7th seed, both at 9-7. New Orleans is in the hunt at 8-8.

So The Eagles are in, but SF is not.

So here is the strange scenario. If the Eagles lose to Dallas (likely) and SF loses to the Rams (Rams favored) and New Orleans wins (vs Atlanta), then all 3 teams would be 9-8 and the Eagles would be the 6th seed and N. O. the 7th seed and SF out.

So the Eagles can lose and move up a seed.
DRich
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January 4th, 2022 at 6:02:02 AM permalink
None of those scenarios consider ties amongst the playoff contenders. What are the odds of a tie game in Week 18?
Order from chaos
unJon
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January 4th, 2022 at 6:05:05 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

None of those scenarios consider ties amongst the playoff contenders. What are the odds of a tie game in Week 18?
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Fun scenario of the day:

Jax beats Colts
Steelers beat Ravens

Then the late Sunday game between Chargers and Raiders gets interesting. While still win and in, both teams would be in the playoffs with a tie. What incentives for collusion! Four quarters of kneel downs!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
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Mission146
January 4th, 2022 at 6:25:16 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: DRich

None of those scenarios consider ties amongst the playoff contenders. What are the odds of a tie game in Week 18?
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Fun scenario of the day:

Jax beats Colts
Steelers beat Ravens

Then the late Sunday game between Chargers and Raiders gets interesting. While still win and in, both teams would be in the playoffs with a tie. What incentives for collusion! Four quarters of kneel downs!
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The ‘both teams in with a tie’ scenario has happened at least once before. Game did not end in a tie. I texted my son the 120 consecutive kneel down scenario. Not sure Goodell would take that ‘kneeling down’.

Each team can make late game decisions that would favor a tie over risking a loss to try and get a win. As long as there isn’t collusion it’s ok. If Indy loses to Jacksonville THAT should be investigated!
Wizard
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January 4th, 2022 at 7:51:25 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Goodell would take that ‘kneeling down’.
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That would be the biggest scandal in the NFL since deflate-gate.

Reminds me of a badminton game in the 2012 Olympics where both China and South Korea were incentivized to lose in a match and both tried to do so. The acting was evidently not very good. More information: Eight badminton players have been disqualified from the Olympics for tanking. Why were they trying to lose, and why is the sport so dirty?.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TinMan
TinMan
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January 4th, 2022 at 8:24:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

Goodell would take that ‘kneeling down’.
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That would be the biggest scandal in the NFL since deflate-gate.

Reminds me of a badminton game in the 2012 Olympics where both China and South Korea were incentivized to lose in a match and both tried to do so. The acting was evidently not very good. More information: Eight badminton players have been disqualified from the Olympics for tanking. Why were they trying to lose, and why is the sport so dirty?.
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This is the reason why the 3rd game of World Cup group stages are played simultaneously. There was a famous incident in the 80s where both teams essentially didn’t play the final game and just stood around for about 90 mins.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
billryan
billryan
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January 4th, 2022 at 8:49:57 AM permalink
Does a coach, player or team have an obligation to try to win? If a tie gets you into the playoffs, how could anyone fault them for playing for a tie?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TinMan
TinMan
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January 4th, 2022 at 9:09:43 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Does a coach, player or team have an obligation to try to win? If a tie gets you into the playoffs, how could anyone fault them for playing for a tie?
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The “product” of the NFL or any other sports league is NOT wins or playoff appearances or championships. The “product” is advertising revenue and in a distant second, item sales (jerseys, hats, etc). Teams are allowed some range of strategic decisions so long as they are not inconsistent with those actual goals of the league but if your strategy is inconsistent with keeping eyeballs on the ads and/or people buying merch, you’re providing an “inferior” product.


I could see scenarios where you wouldn’t get punished for playing for a tie—eg OT and the other team already kicked a FG. You’re on the 1 yard line and kick the FG on 1st down for a tie rather than try for the TD (I believe the game stops at that point but could be wrong). But if both team just kneel it down all game Roger Goodell is going to tear the teams apart/fines/lost draft picks.

There was a situation in the NBA where teams were resting their stars during easy games. I think that’s 100% fine/strategic but the commish wasn’t having it. Teams started getting fined. It hurts advertising sales and therefore can’t be allowed.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.

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