Wizard
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Wizard
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January 3rd, 2022 at 5:26:06 PM permalink
What has to happen for the Raiders to get a playoff spot? There are three teams that are 9-7 in the AFC and one wild card spot to give out.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
billryan
billryan
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January 3rd, 2022 at 5:32:48 PM permalink
I'm pretty sure if they win, they are in. The winner of that game gets in, I'm not sure what happens if the other 9-7 team loses as well. Raiders-Chargers Sunday night. It should be a great way to end the regular season.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
mwalz9
mwalz9
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January 3rd, 2022 at 6:12:59 PM permalink
Correct. Raiders vs Chargers is a win and in scenario. Thus why it was flexed to Sunday Night.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 3rd, 2022 at 6:31:12 PM permalink
Let's say both LV and Indy win their final game. Both will have a 10-7 record (since when are there 17 games?). What breaks the tie for the wild card spot?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon 
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January 3rd, 2022 at 6:33:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let's say both LV and Indy win their final game. Both will have a 10-7 record (since when are there 17 games?). What breaks the tie for the wild card spot?
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Indy is win and in. There are three wild card spots. 14 teams make the playoffs this year. Only top seed gets bye.

ETA: there are also scenarios where the Colts or Raiders could lose next week and still make it.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 3rd, 2022 at 6:43:29 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

ETA: there are also scenarios where the Colts or Raiders could lose next week and still make it.
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I somehow managed to miss the news of these rule changes.

Okay, let's say that both Indy and LV lose week 18 and have a 9-8 record. The LAC will get a spot, beating LV, with a 10-7 record.

According to the NFL Tiebreaking Procedures, what would break the tie between LV and Indy would be the outcome of any games played against each other, which happened yesterday, LV winning 23-20.

So, would I be correct in saying LV has two ways to make it:

1. Beat the LAC.
2. Jacksonville beats Indy.

By the way, the LAC are a 2.5-point favorite and Indy is a 15.5-point favorite.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
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January 3rd, 2022 at 7:02:03 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: unJon

ETA: there are also scenarios where the Colts or Raiders could lose next week and still make it.
link to original post



I somehow managed to miss the news of these rule changes.

Okay, let's say that both Indy and LV lose week 18 and have a 9-8 record. The LAC will get a spot, beating LV, with a 10-7 record.

According to the NFL Tiebreaking Procedures, what would break the tie between LV and Indy would be the outcome of any games played against each other, which happened yesterday, LV winning 23-20.

So, would I be correct in saying LV has two ways to make it:

1. Beat the LAC.
2. Jacksonville beats Indy.

By the way, the LAC are a 2.5-point favorite and Indy is a 15.5-point favorite.
link to original post



You are correct with scenario #1, however, thereís more than that to scenario #2. Not only would the Colts have to lose if the Raiders lose to the Chargers, but the Raiders would also need the Steelers to lose either tonight or next week, otherwise, the Steelers would be in if they win their last two games AND the Colts lose.

IOW, if the Raiders lose to the Chargers, then the Colts losing is only helpful to them if the Steelers also lose one of their last two games.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
unJon 
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January 3rd, 2022 at 7:13:13 PM permalink
Indy playoff conditions:
1) Beat Jax; or
2) Steelers (must be week 17), Ravens and Chargers all lose.

Chargers playoff conditions:
1) Beat Raiders

Raiders playoff conditions:
1) Beat Chargers; or
2) Steelers and Colts both lose.

Steelers playoff conditions:
1) Win out and Colts lose.

Ravens playoff conditions:
1) Beat Steelers and losses by all of Colts, Browns, Chargers and Dolphins.

Above per CBS. I must admit I donít quite follow the Ravens conditions and how they line up re tiebreakers with the other teams.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
Mission146
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Thanks for this post from:
unJon
January 3rd, 2022 at 7:40:10 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Indy playoff conditions:
1) Beat Jax; or
2) Steelers (must be week 17), Ravens and Chargers all lose.

Chargers playoff conditions:
1) Beat Raiders

Raiders playoff conditions:
1) Beat Chargers
2) Steelers and Colts both lose.

Steelers playoff conditions:
1) Win out and Colts lose.

Ravens playoff conditions:
1) Win and losses by all of Colts, Browns, Chargers and Dolphins.

Above per CBS. I must admit I donít quite follow the Ravens conditions and how they line up re tiebreakers with the other teams.
link to original post



Iím going to try to dissect it, so here we go:

If the Chargers lose, then the Raiders have won, which gets the Raiders into the Playoffs. This is good for the Ravens because they have the H2H tiebreaker against the Chargers, but they lose the H2H to the RaidersÖso they want to have the same record as the Chargers.

The Ravens also beat the Colts, so they have that H2H tiebreaker if same record.

They need the Browns and Dolphins to lose becauseÖreasons.

Actually, the reason is because the Dolphins winning (if the Browns lose) would give the Dolphins the same record as the Ravens and Chargers (as would the Browns winning out) which would mean that H2H tiebreakers would no longer apply (because the Dolphins beat the Ravens) and it would go to Conference record to tiebreak, which would mean the Ravens would be out because the Colts would have the better conference record.

So, Miami (who is eliminated) winning would cause the Ravens to be out by virtue of changing what tiebreaker would be used even if all of the other stuff happened.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 3rd, 2022 at 7:44:22 PM permalink
Good analysis. Seems like Indy scenario 2 as reported by CBS isnít then complete as they Indy lose and Ravens could win but Miami or Browns could also win . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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