Super Bowl LVI - Estimated Odds...
A Cards - Eagles matchup would pit two former OU QBs against each other.
Quote: moses
A Cards - Eagles matchup would pit two former OU QBs against each other.
I am not sure THAT is a feather in anyone's cap. I can't think of a OU QB that amounted to much in the NFL (at least in my time)? Sam Bradford? Does anyone consider him a successful NFL QB?
Baker Mayfield seems to be going downhill very quickly. I enjoy watching Kyler Murray, but he is way too small. A serious injury is right around the corner and he will never be the same. Jalen Hurts is NOT an NFL QB. I was alright with The Eagles giving him this year to see what he could do. Unfortunately, he has been just good enough (against the easiest schedule in the NFL) to probably have earned another year. But no way is this guy a legit NFL QB and not the Eagles answer at QB.
And OU QB's are getting worse. The guy this year, anointed a Heisman frontrunner, couldn't even keep his job.
Quote: mosesYou could do a lot worse than Hurst. He was 51-5 in college. Played 4 years and 14 or 15 games per year. Very rare stat.
I beg to differ, Moses. That 51-5 stat means nothing when you play at Alabama and Oklahoma. Those teams have a schedule and the talent all around at every position that almost guarantee 12-1 seasons or better.
Quote: billryanCan anyone name the last Bama QB that lost five games?
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Exactly! For all their winning Alabama hasn't had any successful QB's in the NFL recently. (Namath)
The book isn't closed on Tua and has just opened on Mac Jones. Jones may break the tradition. Let's see if he continues to improve.
Quote: kewljQuote: mosesYou could do a lot worse than Hurst. He was 51-5 in college. Played 4 years and 14 or 15 games per year. Very rare stat.
I beg to differ, Moses. That 51-5 stat means nothing when you play at Alabama and Oklahoma. Those teams have a schedule and the talent all around at every position that almost guarantee 12-1 seasons or better.
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So who do you want? Aaron Rodgers. Not likely. Carson Wentz? Been there done that. That head case from Houston? Cam Newton? Russell Wison? Maybe.
Quote: kewljQuote: billryanCan anyone name the last Bama QB that lost five games?
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Exactly! For all their winning Alabama hasn't had any successful QB's in the NFL recently. (Namath)
The book isn't closed on Tua and has just opened on Mac Jones. Jones may break the tradition. Let's see if he continues to improve.
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I believe there was a Sunday when four Bama QBs started this NFL season. Unprecedented. For years, Namath and Stabler were the only two Bama QBs that had much NFL success.
Quote: kewljQuote: billryanCan anyone name the last Bama QB that lost five games?
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Exactly! For all their winning Alabama hasn't had any successful QB's in the NFL recently. (Namath)
The book isn't closed on Tua and has just opened on Mac Jones. Jones may break the tradition. Let's see if he continues to improve.
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Mac Jones seems to have fairly decent Coach. Some guy named Bellichek.
49ers (9-7): ~$1.69 / -144
Saints (8-8): $2.44 / +144
Note: I will try and do an AFC "odds ... to make the playoffs" post in the next couple of days (it will take a bit longer to work out).
Quote: billryanCan anyone name the last Bama QB that lost five games?
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Namath was 29-4. Stabler was 28-3-2. Both were 3 year starters.
. How would that be differentiated from other soccer games?Quote: TinManQuote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOGoodell would take that ‘kneeling down’.
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That would be the biggest scandal in the NFL since deflate-gate.
Reminds me of a badminton game in the 2012 Olympics where both China and South Korea were incentivized to lose in a match and both tried to do so. The acting was evidently not very good. More information: Eight badminton players have been disqualified from the Olympics for tanking. Why were they trying to lose, and why is the sport so dirty?.
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This is the reason why the 3rd game of World Cup group stages are played simultaneously. There was a famous incident in the 80s where both teams essentially didn’t play the final game and just stood around for about 90 mins.
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Quote: mosesQuote: kewljQuote: moses
I guess the same could be said about Colts. If they can't be Jaguars they don't deserve playoffs.
Well what about the Eagles? Eagles are in the playoffs and didn't beat a team with a winning record. The closest is New Orleans who is 8-8, might end up with a winning record if they win their last game.
It just seems like you should have to beat SOMEBODY with a winning record to make the playoffs, not just all losing teams. Either way, seems like a pretty good sign of a team not going very far. :/ (and that coming from an Eagles fan)
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I agree. AND the Eagles could sit all their starters on Saturday without effecting their status.
This takes us back to my original plan. Win 10 and in.
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I say play everyone in your conference (only) once per year, with a few non-conference games. Have head-to-head be the main tiebreaker, and if that fails (multi-way needed), you could go with team Points Differentials, which is going to make all games potentially more interesting because teams will generally want to favor continuing to try to score throughout the entire game, even if they are already up some ridiculous amount.
You can on Betfair. Dallas to win is listed at 18.5 for 1. Dallas to not win is listed at 19 for 18. So a $100 wager would payout $105.56 if they don’t winQuote: DeMangoToo bad, unlike craps, there is no way to bet $100 that no way in hell Cowboys win SB! (Or Bills)
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Quote: JoemanQuote: billryanIf Indy loses, and the rest of the dominos fall into place so that both the Raiders and Chargers are in the playoffs, do you expect a competitive game? Do you think the starters play all the way
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Assuming there is no hard collusion, I expect it to be a competitive game and starters will play the entire game, barring a blowout. Think about it. If you were the Raiders and saw that the Chargers decided to rest their starters, you'd play your starters and kick the Chargers' a$$. Why 'hope' for a tie, when you can guarantee a victory?
But this is all moot anyway because it hinges on the Jags beating the Colts.
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If I'm Darrell Bevell, my pregame speech includes, "...and we are literally being DISRESPECTED by every single person in the entire world who watches the NFL (pause) and are they saying the odds are against us? No. People say that every week. That's a reasonable thing to say. Are they saying we CAN'T win? No. That wouldn't be true even if they did say it, but they're doing something much worse---they are laughing hysterically at the very notion of us winning this game. We have played the Bengals close, we BEAT the Dolphins, we BEAT the Bills, we ONLY lost to the Colts by six earlier this year...Now, maybe we won't win this game, but we're damn sure going to try...and I want this defense to take a piece of these mens' souls with every single hit. I want them wincing through their own blood as they line up for every single play. We are going to try to win and we CAN win, but win or lose, we will PUNISH THE OPPONENT for this disrespect today."
I think that's pretty good.
sigh.🙄 Brodie Croyle was 14-24 with Bama. He was drafted in the 3rd round by KC. He threw 8 TD passes in a career shortened by knee injuries.Quote: billryanNo Bama QB threw an NFL touchdown between Jeff Rutledge in 1987 and AJ McCarron in 2015.
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Quote: mosessigh.🙄 Brodie Croyle was 14-24 with Bama. He was drafted in the 3rd round by KC. He threw 8 TD passes in a career shortened by knee injuries.Quote: billryanNo Bama QB threw an NFL touchdown between Jeff Rutledge in 1987 and AJ McCarron in 2015.
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My mistake. The real stat is even worse. No Bama QB won an NFL game between JR in 1987 and AJ in 2015.
From wiki....The following week, McCarron became the first Alabama quarterback to win an NFL game since Jeff Rutledge of the New York Giants in 1987, when the Bengals beat the San Francisco 49ers 24–14. I
I like it. You know, if you want to make these speeches (and do some other football stuff) for a living, there is a job opening in Jax you may want to check out! ;)Quote: Mission146
If I'm Darrell Bevell, my pregame speech includes, "...and we are literally being DISRESPECTED by every single person in the entire world who watches the NFL (pause) and are they saying the odds are against us? No. People say that every week. That's a reasonable thing to say. Are they saying we CAN'T win? No. That wouldn't be true even if they did say it, but they're doing something much worse---they are laughing hysterically at the very notion of us winning this game. We have played the Bengals close, we BEAT the Dolphins, we BEAT the Bills, we ONLY lost to the Colts by six earlier this year...Now, maybe we won't win this game, but we're damn sure going to try...and I want this defense to take a piece of these mens' souls with every single hit. I want them wincing through their own blood as they line up for every single play. We are going to try to win and we CAN win, but win or lose, we will PUNISH THE OPPONENT for this disrespect today."
I think that's pretty good.
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BTW Mission, are you still on the Jaguars bandwagon? I remember you posted the following a while back:
*** Clipped for relevance, but the link takes you to the whole post ***Quote: Mission146Thus, I have come to a decision, I am now a fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Thank you for your kind attention.
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I grew up in Daytona. When I was a kid all of northern Florida was Tampa Bay fans and so were my friends and I. When I moved to Phila, I adopted the Eagles. Now when my brother who is younger than me was a kid, Jacksonville entered the league, was closer and a pretty good team very quickly and him and all his friends were Jacksonville Fans. My brother, one of those friends that he grew up with, that lives with us and my Mother, who lives nearby are all still Jacksonville fans, although not all that "fanatic" the past couple years. LOL.
Well, I for one don't have to imagine!Quote: kewljCan you imagine being a fan of the Jags? What a mess the whole organization is. Seems like it is going to take a long time to get things right. They probably are going to really screw up Trevor Lawrence in the process.
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Yeah, it's pretty bad, but we do have an owner who wants to put a winning product on the field and isn't afraid to spend money. We've got a (hopefully) franchise quarterback. And we have lots of space under the salary cap.
I don't know that it has to take a long time, but a lot of things definitely need to change.
Quote: JoemanI like it. You know, if you want to make these speeches (and do some other football stuff) for a living, there is a job opening in Jax you may want to check out! ;)Quote: Mission146
If I'm Darrell Bevell, my pregame speech includes, "...and we are literally being DISRESPECTED by every single person in the entire world who watches the NFL (pause) and are they saying the odds are against us? No. People say that every week. That's a reasonable thing to say. Are they saying we CAN'T win? No. That wouldn't be true even if they did say it, but they're doing something much worse---they are laughing hysterically at the very notion of us winning this game. We have played the Bengals close, we BEAT the Dolphins, we BEAT the Bills, we ONLY lost to the Colts by six earlier this year...Now, maybe we won't win this game, but we're damn sure going to try...and I want this defense to take a piece of these mens' souls with every single hit. I want them wincing through their own blood as they line up for every single play. We are going to try to win and we CAN win, but win or lose, we will PUNISH THE OPPONENT for this disrespect today."
I think that's pretty good.
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BTW Mission, are you still on the Jaguars bandwagon? I remember you posted the following a while back:*** Clipped for relevance, but the link takes you to the whole post ***Quote: Mission146Thus, I have come to a decision, I am now a fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Thank you for your kind attention.
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I ended up sticking with the Patriots and then moving to the Buccaneers. As we saw with Antonio Brown, our Lord and Savior is capable of great forgiveness and mercy, so I am certain that I have been forgiven for ever considering any team that does not have #TB12 at the helm.
I've already been offered the head coaching job for the Jacksonville Jaguars, which I declined. The money was there, I'll be honest, but I think the impact on other head coaching opportunities I might be offered down the line could be too negative if things were to really go off the rails with JAX. It's not worth the risk to my coaching career.
Quote: kewljCan you imagine being a fan of the Jags? What a mess the whole organization is. Seems like it is going to take a long time to get things right. They probably are going to really screw up Trevor Lawrence in the process.
I grew up in Daytona. When I was a kid all of northern Florida was Tampa Bay fans and so were my friends and I. When I moved to Phila, I adopted the Eagles. Now when my brother who is younger than me was a kid, Jacksonville entered the league, was closer and a pretty good team very quickly and him and all his friends were Jacksonville Fans. My brother, one of those friends that he grew up with, that lives with us and my Mother, who lives nearby are all still Jacksonville fans, although not all that "fanatic" the past couple years. LOL.
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My formative years as a football fan (literally a little kid) began in the Patriots years of the late 80's and early 90's, so I know what it is to struggle through cheering for a team despite the fact that they absolutely suck. I'll tell you something, the reward of that first Super Bowl was worth it.
Also, the prophet, Drew Bledsoe...for it was Bledsoe that led our people from out of the desert and paved the way for the arrival of the true Messiah, your Lord and Savior, Tom Brady...who took those final steps that would lead us out of the desert and into Providence. The milk and honey flowed and rings adorned the fingers of the righteous, so many rings and such were the riches that one hand was not enough, nay, only if a man had an extra digit on his hand!
They only sniffed the playoffs once until 1985. The next thirty years were good with five Super Bowl appearances, but the last few years have been bad.
Quote: ksdjdjHere are my "to make the playoffs" odds for the remaining NFC teams still "in the hunt" :
49ers (9-7): ~$1.69 / -144
Saints (8-8): $2.44 / +144
Note: I will try and do an AFC "odds ... to make the playoffs" post in the next couple of days (it will take a bit longer to work out).
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Going to work soon, so I am just posting my current estimated odds for the Colts / Jags game
Colts (9-7): ~$1.15 (-670)
Jags (2-14): $7.70 (+670)
Note: I had a "smallish" / $200 to win $210 bet on the Jags @ +14.5 ATS, and $60 to win $480 ML.
Quote: billryanI grew up a Giants fan. To make matters worse, the first year I really followed them, they started 5-0. Of course, they finished 7-7.
They only sniffed the playoffs once until 1985. The next thirty years were good with five Super Bowl appearances, but the last few years have been bad.
I don't KNOW the feeling of waiting forever since I have only been an Eagles fan for 20 years now (my adult life), but I saw my late partner experience just that feeling. When the Eagles won the Superbowl in 2018 he was in his late 50's and had been an Eagles fan all his life. When the game was winding down and it became clear the Eagles were going to win, I witnessed a joy from him, that he had waited a lifetime for and didn't think he would ever see. I was a very special thing to watch. And from my time in Philly, I knew a few other people, that had waited 40. 50, years for that as well, that I am sure were experiencing that same one in a lifetime feeling whereever they were.
Quote: ksdjdj
Colts (9-7): ~$1.15 (-670)
Jags (2-14): $7.70 (+670)
Note: I had a "smallish" / $200 to win $210 bet on the Jags @ +14.5 ATS, and $60 to win $480 ML.
While this is not a playoff game, it is as close as you can come for the Colts. And Carson Wentz has played in less than 1 quarter of 1 playoff game in his career, completing 1 for 4 passes, for 3 yards before leaving with an injury. So he basically has zero experience in a big game. It was Nick Foles who won 2 playoff games and a superbowl in 2018 and won a playoff game in 2019, each time after Wentz got hurt. So who knows how he will perform in a big game. History says he will get hurt. :/
A team like Jacksonville who has had a horrendous season, is just the kind of team that would love nothing more than to pull that upset and send the Colts home. Sort of a nothing to lose situation for them.
Jalen Hurts would be a nice fit in New Orleams with Alvin Kamara.
Quote: kewljQuote: moses
So if Steelers, Chargers, Raiders end in a 3 way tie. Steelers are out?
Yes, Steelers lost to both the Raiders and Chargers, so they would lose a tie breaker with all 3 teams.
But the thing that is REAALY going to cost the Steelers is a tie win Detroit Lions. If you tie a 1 win team, you don't deserve the playoffs. LOL.
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But the Lions have two wins. They beat the Vikings and Cardinals so clearly they are an up and coming team.
The Cowboys are currently a 4 seed. Moving up to a 3 seed is almost insignificant. Only moving up to a 2 seed matters as far as home game in the second round barring a major upset. So for the Cowboys to move up from the 4 seed to the 2 seed, they need to win AND have two teams in front of them lose. Those teams are the Rams and Tampa Bay, both who play home games and are favored to win and both who will be trying to win to get that same 2 seed.
So that is a lot to ask. The Cowboys need to win and have not 1 but 2 other teams be upset at home. And the risk: Well what if Zak Prescott gets hurt? They lost one of their top 3 receivers last week for the remainder of year, what if a second goes down?
I suspect when all is said and done both the Eagles and Cowboys will be resting starters in a prime time Saturday night game. Kind of a glorified pre-season game.
ONE article said the NFL will not reseed. This article appears it will reseed.
Quote: moses
ONE article said the NFL will not reseed. This article appears it will reseed.
The NFL re-seeds. When a game is going on, they always show the 2 possibilities. If Team A wins they play xx and if team B wins they play YY.
In past years seeds 1 and 2 had the big advantage because they received a bye and guaranteed home feild in second round. This year with this new suckier format, only #1 seed gets that rather large advantage. there is still advantage in #2 because while you have to play an extra game from previous years, you will have 2 home games if you win.
3 and 4 the advantage is a home game first round. You are probably on the road second round. #3 could get a second round home game if there is an upset, but a 1 or 2 losing it's home game is a pretty big upset.
So there just isn't a huge advantage in going from 4 to 3. If you can get to #2 yes, but like I said the cowboys need to win and have two other home favorites lose to get to #2.
They probably beat the Eagles without their starters anyway. I definitely wouldn't Risk dak Prescott, wide receivers Cooper and Lamb when you are already down a top receiver. I would also rest a couple of the linemen, especially offensive that have been battling different injuries for weeks.
If you play prescott, have him get hurt in a game you win 38-10....season over!
It is always about risk vs reward. Too much risk for very little chance of reward. Settle into the 4 seed, a home game and after that, get ready to beat 2 of the 3 teams in front of you because that is what it is going to come down to anyway.
That is what the Coach and Owners son must be thinking. I think I'd meet with the key players for an overall consensus. Pretty sure Eagles are resting Jalen Hurts as he recovers from a minor injury. He hasn't pratice yet this week.. Not sure about other key players.
The interesting games are Sunday afternoon when the 49ers vs Rams. Seahawks vs Cards. Saints at Falcons.
Alot of scoreboard watching in that time period.
Indy -15.5 over Jags will seal the AFC top 6 in the morning. Wentz won't screw this up. Plus Colts have the top rusher in the NFL with over 1700 yards.
Quote: mosesOn the flip side. It's a fairly long flight to Plilly. Dak is injury prone. Plus covid could affect the following weeks game. I'd go with bare minimums to make the game and the rest stay home.
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I was going to dispute that it was a long flight but instead I Googled it. I am shocked that it is 1300 miles.
Quote: DRichQuote: mosesOn the flip side. It's a fairly long flight to Plilly. Dak is injury prone. Plus covid could affect the following weeks game. I'd go with bare minimums to make the game and the rest stay home.
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I was going to dispute that it was a long flight but instead I Googled it. I am shocked that it is 1300 miles.
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Funny from an NFL map. Dallas is east. And Detroit is Central.
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjHere are my "to make the playoffs" odds for the remaining NFC teams still "in the hunt" :
49ers (9-7): ~$1.69 / -144
Saints (8-8): $2.44 / +144
Note: I will try and do an AFC "odds ... to make the playoffs" post in the next couple of days (it will take a bit longer to work out).
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Going to work soon, so I am just posting my current estimated odds for the Colts / Jags game
Colts (9-7): ~$1.15 (-670)
Jags (2-14): $7.70 (+670)
Note: I had a "smallish" / $200 to win $210 bet on the Jags @ +14.5 ATS, and $60 to win $480 ML.
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My odds estimates for all of the AFC games with at least one team still "in the hunt":
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Steelers (8-7-1): $2.96 (+196)
Ravens (8-8): ~$1.51 (-196)
Note: I have the Ravens between a ~57% and a ~78% chance of winning, with Lamar in as QB^^^.
^^^: If Lamar Jackson (currently questionable) is out, then I have an average estimate of Steelers +103 / Ravens -103.
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Colts (9-7): ~$1.17 (-590)
Jags (2-14): $6.90 (+590)
Note: I have the Jags between a ~13% and a ~18% chance of winning.
Also Note: The above odds are different to the previous ones of "-670/+670", because those are the odds that I used to work out if I think "there is value in betting on a particular team in any game" (see example below)
Example: Using the above "Jag chances of winning", I would only consider betting on the Jags, if I could get about +670 (or better) and the Colts, if I could get about -450 (or better).
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Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)
Note: I have the Raiders between a ~39% and a ~50% chance of winning.
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Sorry, but it looks like I won't be posting the odds for the teams "in the hunt to make the playoffs" like I said in earlier posts, as I have Covid .
But below are some links that can help you work it out, if you want to use my "estimated game odds", or your own / someone else's estimates.
General:
https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/insider/story/_/id/33001020/nfl-game-plans-seven-win-week-18-matchups-keys-victory-colts-49ers-chargers-other-playoff-hopefuls
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article257037867.html <<< ^^^
^^^: You can probably just use this for all teams left "in the hunt" ( it would have been great if I found this one first in my searches)
Steelers:
https://www.steelers.com/news/steelers-latest-playoff-scenario-x2987
https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/how-can-steelers-make-2021-nfl-playoffs
Ravens:
https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/here-s-the-ravens-narrow-path-to-the-playoffs
https://ebonybird.com/2022/01/04/ravens-playoff-odds-increase-slightly/
Colts:
https://www.colts.com/news/nfl-playoffs-scenarios-clinching-seeding-afc-week-18-chargers-raiders
https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2022/1/6/22870183/5-questions-with-stampede-blue-can-the-colts-make-a-playoff-run-jaguars
Chargers:
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article257037867.html <<< "A win or tie against the Raiders will get the Chargers in the playoff field. As noted, the Chargers will also make the postseason with a tie if the Colts lose."
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/chargers-playoff-chances-afc-wild-card-2021/w3luk3rdgb4t11u0m0vuqeg7d
Raiders:
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article257037867.html <<< "The Raiders will be in with a win. They’re also in with a tie and a Colts loss. A third path for the Raiders involves a Colts loss and a Steelers loss or tie."
https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2022/01/02/the-raiders-can-make-playoffs-even-without-beating-chargers-in-week-18/
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Spelling/grammar not checked.
^^^: The Bills can't make the "no 1 spot" this year, but the game could still be important for the other AFC teams' chances for getting the no 1 seed.
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Jets (4-12): ~$11.6 (+1060)
Bills (10-6): ~$1.09 (-1060)
Note: I have the Bills between a ~89% and a ~95.3% chance of winning.
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Titans (11-5): ~$1.28 (-355)
Texans (4-12): ~$4.55 (+355)
Note: I have the Texans between a ~17.7% and a ~27.8% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $100 bet on the Texans @ $5 (+400) ML and Texans +10.5 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .
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Chiefs (11-5): ~$1.38 (-266)
Broncos (7-9): ~$3.66 (+266)
Note: I have the Broncos between a ~18.0% and a ~48.2% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5 (+400) ML and Broncos +11 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .
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Bengals (10-6): ~$3.29 (+229)
Browns (7-9): ~$1.44 (-229)
Note: I have the Browns between a ~55% and a ~73.9% chance of winning.
Note 2: These estimates are only valid with Brandon Allen and Case Keenum in as starting QBs.
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Patriots (10-6): ~$1.58 (-172)
Dolphins (8-8): ~$2.72 (+172)
Note: I have the Dolphins between a ~28.8% and a ~48.0% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $700 bet on the Dolphins @ $3.4 (+240) ML
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Other Bets
I also had another bet on the Colts @ Jags game and it was: Jags +14.5 ATS, for $750 @ $2 (+100)
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You can use my estimated game odds or your own, and the link below to help work out a teams estimated chances to get the "no 1 seed" in the AFC.
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article257037867.html
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
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Chiefs (11-5): ~$1.38 (-266)
Broncos (7-9): ~$3.66 (+266)
Note: I have the Broncos between a ~18.0% and a ~48.2% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5 (+400) ML and Broncos +11 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .
(snip)
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I had another $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5.5 (+450) ML and Broncos +10.5 ATS, for $1000 @ $2.05 (+105) .
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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Chiefs (11-5): ~$1.38 (-266)
Broncos (7-9): ~$3.66 (+266)
Note: I have the Broncos between a ~18.0% and a ~48.2% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5 (+400) ML and Broncos +11 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .
(snip)
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I had another $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5.5 (+450) ML and Broncos +10.5 ATS, for $1000 @ $2.05 (+105) .
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It is hard for me to understand your jargon.
Is this correct?
1. Bet $500 money line on Broncos to win $2250 profit
2. Bet $1000 on Broncos +10.5 to win $1050 profit
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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Chiefs (11-5): ~$1.38 (-266)
Broncos (7-9): ~$3.66 (+266)
Note: I have the Broncos between a ~18.0% and a ~48.2% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5 (+400) ML and Broncos +11 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .
(snip)
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I had another $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5.5 (+450) ML and Broncos +10.5 ATS, for $1000 @ $2.05 (+105) .
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It is hard for me to understand your jargon.
Is this correct?
1. Bet $500 money line on Broncos to win $2250 profit
2. Bet $1000 on Broncos +10.5 to win $1050 profit
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Yes
Eagles (9-7): ~$2.54 (+154)
Bets:
1: $3300 to win $3000 on the Eagles @ +6.5
2: $200 to win $2200 on the Cowboys, to win by 2 or 3 points.
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Colts (9-7): ~$1.17 (-590)
Jags (2-14): $6.90 (+590)
1: $3450 to win $3460 on the Jags @ +14.5
2: $60 to win $480 on the Jags, money line.
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Titans (11-5): ~$1.32 (-310)
Texans (4-12): ~$4.10 (+310)
1: $2750 to win $2500 on the Texans @ +10.5.
2: $250 to win $1000 on the Texans, money line
Note: My estimated odds have changed for this game.
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Bengals (10-6): ~$3.29 (+229)
Browns (7-9): ~$1.44 (-229)
1: $800 to win $8000 on the Browns, to win by 2 or 3 points.
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Patriots (10-6): ~$1.63 (-160)
Dolphins (8-8): ~$2.60 (+160)
1: $2200 to win $2000 on the Dolphins @ + 6
2: $2000 to win $4670 on the Dolphins, money line
Note: My estimated odds have changed for this game.
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Steelers (8-7-1): $2.03 (+103)
Ravens (8-8): ~$1.97 (-103)
1: $4000 to win $6600 on the Steelers, money line.
Note: My estimated odds have changed for this game.
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Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)
1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points.
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
Quote: ksdjdj
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
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I like that bet for Raiders to win by 3 at 18-1.
Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdj
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
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I like that bet for Raiders to win by 3 at 18-1.
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Me too, I was tossing up whether to have $400 or $500 (I may still have an extra $100 on it).
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)
1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points. (snip)
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The funny thing with the Chargers is, if I wanted them to win by exactly 3 I can only get 10/1, but the odds on offer for Chargers by 2 or 3 points are 11/1 ( with the same sports-book).
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Patriots (10-6): ~$1.63 (-160)
Dolphins (8-8): ~$2.60 (+160)
1: $2200 to win $2000 on the Dolphins @ + 6
2: $2000 to win $4670 on the Dolphins, money line (snip)
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Because of a "promo with the sports-book", I just need the Dolphins to score at least 3 more points ("17+ point lead at anytime") and I automatically win the money line bet.
Edit (about 210 PM, Pac Time): Dolphins up by 17 (yes!!!)
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
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Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)
1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points.
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
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Had another bet on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
My total bet is now: $500 to win $9000 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)
1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points.
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
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Had another bet on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
My total bet is now: $500 to win $9000 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
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You had a profitable weekend!
