ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1296
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:23:28 AM permalink
Here are my current estimated odds for each team to win the Super Bowl this year.


Team "Raw" / Estimated Odds "Opinion"/ Adjusted Odds
Bills $10.61 $12.50
Patriots $21.80 $28.00
Bengals $24.03 $27.00
Ravens $489.18 $833.00
Steelers $681.98 $950.00
Titans $13.74 $11.00
Colts $25.30 $31.00
Chiefs $6.34 $5.50
Chargers $57.73 $76.00
Raiders $143.40 $201.00
Cowboys $19.53 $26.00
Eagles $81.25 $121.00
Packers $4.67 $3.90
Buccaneers $11.24 $10.00
Saints $185.25 $281.00
Rams $10.84 $13.00
Cardinals $27.79 $41.00
49ers $49.30 $71.00


Note: All odds are posted in decimal odds.

Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"

Note 3: The "Adjusted Odds" can be used to work out what teams "I like or dislike" , by comparing them to the "Estimated Odds".

Note 4: I will try to update this after each game and / or day of the playoffs.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 3, 2022
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 116
  • Posts: 8779
January 3rd, 2022 at 6:24:32 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Here are my current estimated odds for each team to win the Super Bowl this year.


Team "Raw" / Estimated Odds "Opinion"/ Adjusted Odds
Bills $10.61 $12.50
Patriots $21.80 $28.00
Bengals $24.03 $27.00
Ravens $489.18 $833.00
Steelers $681.98 $950.00
Titans $13.74 $11.00
Colts $25.30 $31.00
Chiefs $6.34 $5.50
Chargers $57.73 $76.00
Raiders $143.40 $201.00
Cowboys $19.53 $26.00
Eagles $81.25 $121.00
Packers $4.67 $3.90
Buccaneers $11.24 $10.00
Saints $185.25 $281.00
Rams $10.84 $13.00
Cardinals $27.79 $41.00
49ers $49.30 $71.00


Note: All odds are posted in decimal odds.

Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"

Note 3: The "Adjusted Odds" can be used to work out what teams "I like or dislike" , by comparing them to the "Estimated Odds".

Note 4: I will try to update this after each game and / or day of the playoffs.
link to original post



Looks like good value on Cardinals and Chargers. But we know Bills are gonna win it this year….
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 745
January 3rd, 2022 at 7:34:41 AM permalink
FanDuel had a promo before the season started where if you bet $50 on a Super Bowl Future you would get $5 back for each game that team won each week (up to $50 or 10 wins). I took the Chiefs at +500 at that time. They have since won more than 10 games, so I have recouped all $50 back and still stand a chance to win $250 plus my original $50 back at +500.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
January 3rd, 2022 at 8:37:53 AM permalink
Too bad, unlike craps, there is no way to bet $100 that no way in hell Cowboys win SB! (Or Bills)
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 8755
January 3rd, 2022 at 10:27:12 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Too bad, unlike craps, there is no way to bet $100 that no way in hell Cowboys win SB! (Or Bills)
link to original post



I always thought that if a casino offered a sports bet they should have to post both sides of every bet. If I was still working with Nevada Gaming Control Board I would recommend that to them. I think new jurisdictions should also have to do that.
Order from chaos
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 745
January 3rd, 2022 at 10:42:49 AM permalink
Deleted. Math was off.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1296
January 3rd, 2022 at 3:56:37 PM permalink
Update:

FYI: I am not betting on any of these Super Bowl (SB) teams "early" this post-season. Instead I will be betting "day by day" on individual games during the playoffs and SB, because I don't want to get "stung *** " by any potential "covid / injury roster changes".

***: See hypothetical of being "stung" below.

Hypothetical: Say that I had a bet on the Chiefs to win the SB, Patrick Mahomes was out for 1 game with covid (or any other reason) and Chad Henne had to step up for the Chiefs vs Broncos game^^^ .

^^^: Pretend that this was a game during the playoffs, since it is just hypothetical

Because of the QB change In the above hypothetical playoff game, my estimated odds for the Chiefs winning the SB would be +550 instead of +450 (or -216 instead of -421 to win the "hypothetical Chiefs vs Broncos play off game").

Note : That would be my estimated odds for the SB, for 1 game only with Henne in and Mahomes out during the play offs (assuming no other key roster changes).

Also Note: The rough formula I am using for "Henne in / Mahomes out" is: (~1.18^n) x "my base SB odds figure" (where n is the number of games during the playoffs with Henne as starting Quarter-back and Mahomes out).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1296
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:10:05 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

FanDuel had a promo before the season started where if you bet $50 on a Super Bowl Future you would get $5 back for each game that team won each week (up to $50 or 10 wins). I took the Chiefs at +500 at that time. They have since won more than 10 games, so I have recouped all $50 back and still stand a chance to win $250 plus my original $50 back at +500.
link to original post


Great to see that you have a free roll into the Super Bowl .
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 195
  • Posts: 10742
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:46:53 PM permalink
I’m no sports fan but I gotta ask…

There’s only one more week to go, right?

And all those teams, (more than half) still technically mathematically have a shot at post season play?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1296
January 3rd, 2022 at 5:03:57 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I’m no sports fan but I gotta ask…

There’s only one more week to go, right?

And all those teams, (more than half) still technically mathematically have a shot at post season play?
link to original post


See what "needs to happen" for the Steelers to get a Wild Card spot, in the links*** below:
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/pittsburgh-steelers-nfl-playoff-chances-afc-wild-card/1subabacnnhtb19dlm1cf9ic1c
https://www.wtae.com/article/steelers-playoffs-odds-week-17/38656523

***: I am not going to post articles/links for all of the teams that are currently "in the hunt" for a wild card berth, since you just need to search "can X make the playoffs " quite easily (where X is one of the teams "in the hunt" for a wild card spot).

  • Jump to: