2021 WoV Picks Game Discussion Thread

Quote: gordonm888

Week after week, the Raiders seem to get a disproportiinate amount of support ATS in this contest. I think some pickers are picking with their heart, not their head. (Although, I have been 100% picking with my head, and I admit that I am royally screwing it up.)
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Quote: SOOPOO

Cowboys pick was a tad lucky….
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Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Got my first perfect week, I do believe
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Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

So that fourth down miss cost me $15. !@#$%&%%^$$

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

So that fourth down miss cost me $15. !@#$%&%%^$$

Mission, hold my $15 to go to my end of year dues, please.
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Quote: EdCollins

Week 6 Results

Mission146 (4-2)
CHIEFS -6.5 (win)
CARDINALS +3.5 (win)
RAIDERS +3.5 (win)
COWBOYS -3.5 (win)
STEELERS -5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

JohnZimbo (3-3)
DOLPHINS UNDER 47 CONFIDENCE (win)
PANTHERS UNDER 46 (loss)
BILLS -5.5 (loss)
STEELERS UNDER 43.5 (win)
DOLPHINS -3 (loss)

Miplet (4-2)
PACKERS -5 CONFIDENCE (win)
CHIEFS -6.5 (win)
VIKINGS -2 (win)
GIANTS +9.5 (loss)
BRONCOS -3.5 (loss)

FourFiveFace (4-2)
TEXANS +10 (loss)
PACKERS -5 (win)
RAVENS -2.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
LIONS +3.5 (loss)
TITANS +5.5 (win)

JML24 (2-3)
JAGUARS +3 (win)
PACKERS -5 (win)
LIONS +3.5 (loss)
PATRIOTS +3.5 (loss)
BILLS -5.5 (loss)

unJon (4-2)
DOLPHINS UNDER 47 CONFIDENCE (win)
PACKERS -5 (win)
GIANTS +9.5 (loss)
CARDINALS +3.5 (win)
STEELERS -5 (loss)

GenWyzgy (2-4)
TEXANS +10 (loss)
PANTHERS +2 (loss)
LIONS +3.5 (loss)
COWBOYS -3.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
RAVENS OVER 51.5 (loss)

Sparty10k (1-5)
FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 (loss)
LIONS +3.5 (loss)
CARDINALS +3.5 (win)
STEELERS -5 (loss)
BILLS -5.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

RideTheEdge (3-3)
VIKINGS UNDER 46 (loss)
BENGALS UNDER 47.5 (win)
CARDINALS UNDER 49.5 (loss)
GIANTS +9.5 (loss)
SEAHAWKS UNDER 43.5 CONFIDENCE (win)

Gordonm888 (2-4)
TEXANS +10 (loss)
PACKERS -5 (win)
CHIEFS -6.5 (win)
GIANTS +9.5 (loss)
PATRIOTS +3.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

AZDuffman (3-3)
FOOTBALL TEAM (+6.5) (loss)
SEAHAWKS (+5) (win)
CARDINALS OVER 49.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
CHARGERS OVER 51.5 (loss)
BEARS (+5) (loss)

mwalz9 (3-3)
CHIEFS -6.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
PATRIOTS +3.5 (loss)
LIONS +3.5 (loss)
DOLPHINS -3 (loss)
PACKERS UNDER 44 (win)

scolist (5-1)
JAGUARS +3 CONFIDENCE (win)
PACKERS -5 (win)
CARDINALS +3.5 (win)
COWBOYS -3.5 (win)
BILLS -5.5 (loss)

Wizard (3-3)
JAGUARS +3 (win)
GIANTS +9.5 (loss)
CARDINALS +3.5 (win)
PATRIOTS +3.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
SEAHAWKS +5 (win)

IndyJeffrey (3-3)
DOLPHINS -3 (loss)
PACKERS -5 CONFIDENCE (win)
CHIEFS -6.5 (win)
PATRIOTS +3.5 (loss)
BILLS -5.5 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (6-0)
JAGUARS +3 (win)
PACKERS -5 CONFIDENCE (win)
BENGALS -3.5 (win)
RAIDERS +3.5 (win)
COWBOYS -3.5 (win)

EdCollins (5-1)
COWBOYS -3.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
SEAHAWKS +5 (win)
CHIEFS -6.5 (win)
CHARGERS +2.5 (loss)
JAGUARS +3 (win)

Joeman (4-2)
BENGALS -3.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
COWBOYS -3.5 (win)
TITANS UNDER 53 (loss)
FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 (loss)
RAIDERS +3.5 (win)

JohnnyQ (1-5)
PANTHERS (+2) (loss)
CHARGERS (+2.5) (loss)
BENGALS (-3.5) (win)
BROWNS (-3.5) (loss)
BILLS (-5.5) CONFIDENCE (loss)

SOOPOO (6-0)
CHIEFS -6.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
CARDINALS +3.5 (win)
COWBOYS -3.5 (win)
TITANS +5.5 (win)
RAIDERS +3.5 (win)

FastEddie (0-5)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)


Week 6 Standings

Name	Wins	Losses	%
RideTheEdge	24	12	66.67%
Johnzimbo	23	13	63.89%
Wizard	22	13	62.86%
PlayYourCardsRight	22	14	61.11%
IndyJeffrey	21	14	60.00%
SOOPOO	21	14	60.00%
EdCollins	20	15	57.14%
JW17	17	13	56.67%
scolist	18	14	56.25%
mwalz9	20	16	55.56%
FourFiveFace	19	16	54.29%
jml24	15	15	50.00%
miplet	15	15	50.00%
Mission146	18	18	50.00%
unJon	17	18	48.57%
Joeman	16	18	47.06%
Gordonm888	15	20	42.86%
Sparty10k	15	21	41.67%
AZDuffman	14	21	40.00%
GenWyzgy	14	21	40.00%
JohnnyQ	12	24	33.33%
FastEddie	8	17	32.00%
Totals	386	362	51.60%

Record of Skip Weeks
Week 2: miplet
Week 4: Fast Eddie
Week 5: Fast Eddie (2nd Skip Week, 0-5 forfeit)
Week 6: Fast Eddie (3rd Skip Week, 0-5 forfeit), JW17
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Quote: SOOPOO

I like to see how the entire forum is doing. Including 0-5 records for those who forfeit (Fast Eddie) is of no value.

Quote: EdCollins

Quote: SOOPOO

I like to see how the entire forum is doing. Including 0-5 records for those who forfeit (Fast Eddie) is of no value.

Agreed... but I have to include his 0-5 forfeit. I wasn't told to remove him. (I don't even know what happened.) That's his official score. As far as I know, he's still a contestant and he could start picking games again at any time. (If so, he is now ineligible for the Most Average and the You Suck awards, but he is still eligible for the top prizes.)
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Quote: EdCollins

(If so, he is now ineligible for the Most Average and the You Suck awards, but he is still eligible for the top prizes.)

Quote: gordonm888

The advance spread on the Jets/Patriots game was Patriots (-7).

The opening spread on the Jets/Patriots game was Patriots (-7).

The public is massively betting on the Patriots ATS, something like 6-1, Something like 84% of public bets are on the Patriots.

And the spread on the Jets/Patriots game is still Patriots (-7). Why hasn't the spread moved? What is going on? Do the line-makers know something we don't?
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Quote: gordonm888

The public is massively betting on the Patriots ATS, something like 6-1, Something like 84% of public bets are on the Patriots.

Quote: gordonm888

The advance spread on the Jets/Patriots game was Patriots (-7).

The opening spread on the Jets/Patriots game was Patriots (-7).

The public is massively betting on the Patriots ATS, something like 6-1, Something like 84% of public bets are on the Patriots.

And the spread on the Jets/Patriots game is still Patriots (-7). Why hasn't the spread moved? What is going on? Do the line-makers know something we don't?
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Quote: JohnnyQ

Quote: gordonm888

The public is massively betting on the Patriots ATS, something like 6-1, Something like 84% of public bets are on the Patriots.

So please help me understand, I thought the goal of the oddsmakers is to find a number that would split the bets 50/50 so that there would be no scenario where they would be on the losing end.
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Quote: JohnnyQ

Quote: gordonm888

The public is massively betting on the Patriots ATS, something like 6-1, Something like 84% of public bets are on the Patriots.

So please help me understand, I thought the goal of the oddsmakers is to find a number that would split the bets 50/50 so that there would be no scenario where they would be on the losing end.
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Quote: gordonm888

Quote: JohnnyQ

Quote: gordonm888

The public is massively betting on the Patriots ATS, something like 6-1, Something like 84% of public bets are on the Patriots.

So please help me understand, I thought the goal of the oddsmakers is to find a number that would split the bets 50/50 so that there would be no scenario where they would be on the losing end.
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That is a goal of the sportsbooks, but its an absolute myth that they ever move the line enough to equalize the public betting. They tend to move the line early in response to betting by 'the sharps' -but often don't move it very much afterward unless a significant injury is announced.

In fact, I've read that the sportsbooks have been crushed this year on NFL ATS betting, with the public overwhelmingly betting one side on many games and then being correct.

Still, I am kind of surprised that they've allowed the public to bet 84-16 on the favorite (the Patriots) without even moving the line even 1/2 point from the early and opening lines. The books now have a lot riding on the Patriots not covering the spread.
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Quote: Mission146

Three minutes and 12 seconds to spare? Will someone tell the lazy Commissioner to do his job? Is he a (censored) clueless football-hating (censored)?
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Quote: EdCollins

Confirm that jml24 and Wizard are both taking their Skip Week.
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