Edit: OMG, I'm not kidding, my reply was before your post regarding this.

Quote:Mission146Although, should I happen to go 1-4, I'm going to claim that was my plan the entire time.

link to original post

That sounds just about what any gambler that I have ever met would say.

And my "plan" all along was to do poorly during the regular season contest and then Sneak in and take all the prize money for the Play-offs game.Quote:DRichThat sounds just about what any gambler that I have ever met would say.

Quote:gordonm888I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.

link to original post

I don't suppose I'm allowed to bet opposite sides of the same game. Shame I wasted my bye week last week. If I had remembered the "most average" prize, I wouldn't have.

Quote:WizardQuote:gordonm888I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.

link to original post

I don't suppose I'm allowed to bet opposite sides of the same game. Shame I wasted my bye week last week. If I had remembered the "most average" prize, I wouldn't have.

link to original post

Rule #9 addresses this:

9.) "Offsetting Picks"

Any Picks made that directly offset one another shall constitute TWO LOSSES and will disqualify the person making such offsetting picks from winning any consolation prize. "Offsetting Picks," are picking two opposite things to happen in the same game.

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.

I don't see any loophole, but maybe I just can't come up with one. Since offsetting picks disqualifies you from winning the Most Average Prize or the You Suck Prize, how can an 0-5 score ever help?Quote:unJonThere’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.

Quote:unJonQuote:WizardQuote:gordonm888I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.

link to original post

I don't suppose I'm allowed to bet opposite sides of the same game. Shame I wasted my bye week last week. If I had remembered the "most average" prize, I wouldn't have.

link to original post

Rule #9 addresses this:

9.) "Offsetting Picks"

Any Picks made that directly offset one another shall constitute TWO LOSSES and will disqualify the person making such offsetting picks from winning any consolation prize. "Offsetting Picks," are picking two opposite things to happen in the same game.

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.

link to original post

I don’t think there’s a loophole, but do let us know next week. Rule #5 disqualifies a person from winning consolation prizes if they miss making Picks other than the one allotted Skip Week. If a person fails to make Picks for the first time, then they automatically use their Skip Week and a person may not choose to take 0-5.

Choose a game with a large point spread, say >10 points. Bet the Favorite, giving the points against the spread, and also bet the Under on Total Points.

I think it is less likely (probability less than 25%) to win both bets, and also less likely (probability less than 25%) to lose both bets, because there is some correlation between the outcome of "the favorite winning by >10.5 points" and the outcome of "exceeding a Total Points value of say, 45 points."

So, the probability of going 1-1 on those two bets should be better than a random 50/50.

Quote:unJon

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.

link to original post

I think I also have spotted a loophole in the game rules for someone to go 0-5 or maybe even 0-6.

Quote:gordonm888I wonder whether the following wagering tactic gives you a better than 50/50 chance of going 1-1 on two bets (because of intercorrelation between the bets.)

Choose a game with a large point spread, say >10 points. Bet the Favorite, giving the points against the spread, and also bet the Under on Total Points.

I think it is less likely (probability less than 25%) to win both bets, and also less likely (probability less than 25%) to lose both bets, because there is some correlation between the outcome of "the favorite winning by >10.5 points" and the outcome of "exceeding a Total Points value of say, 45 points."

So, the probability of going 1-1 on those two bets should be better than a random 50/50.

link to original post

That logic makes a lot of sense to me. Early in the season I looked for over/favorite and under/dog combinations to increase variance. Late in the season (given my position) I avoided these picks.

The Week 18 Lines are as follows:

Cowboys (-5) @ Eagles (+5) O/U 43.5

Chiefs (-11.5) @ Broncos (+11.5) O/U 45

Packers (-4) @ Lions (+4) O/U 44.5

Bears (+5.5) @ Vikings (-5.5) O/U 44

Patriots (-6.5) @ Dolphins (+6.5) O/U 40

Colts (-15.5) @ Jaguars (+15.5) O/U 44

Jets (+16) @ Bills (-16) O/U 41

Panthers (+8) @ Buccaneers (-8) O/U 41.5

Titans (-10) @ Texans (+10) O/U 43

Football Team (-7) @ Giants (+7) O/U 38

Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons (+3.5) O/U 40

Steelers (+5) @ Ravens (-5) O/U 41.5

Bengals (+6) @ Browns (-6) O/U 38

Seahawks (+6.5) @ Cardinals (-6.5) O/U 48

49ers (+4.5) @ Rams (-4.5) O/U 44.5

Chargers (-3) @ Raiders (+3) O/U 49.5

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18 Perfection Bonus Available: $20

Quote:Mission146The only note that I have today is that I'm going to send Reminder PM's in about one hour because they are also going to ask whether or not people intend to play the Playoff game. I'm only planning on doing the Playoff Picks Game if there are at least twenty participants.

link to original post

The above has been done.

Anyone who did not play this game is still welcome to play the Playoff Picks Game, which is a total free roll:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36791-2021-nfl-playoff-picks-game/#post835669

Simply read the rules in that thread and announce (in that thread) that you intend to play, or alternatively, you can PM me that you intend to play.

- Talented teams who have made the playoffs, have nothing to gain and are resting players. They might not play hard . Sort of an exhibition game for them (ex: Packers)

- Teams whose incentives to play hard could possibly be changed by the results of other games, either earlier or ongoing.

- Underperforming teams who cannot make the playoffs and have starters who might not play for various reasons. (ex: Browns)

- Players coming off Covid lists or returning from injuries (ex: Derrick Henry.)

It's hard to be surgical with your picks in a week like this one. Again, good luck to everyone.

- Talented teams who have made the playoffs, have nothing to gain and are resting players. They might not play hard . Sort of an exhibition game for them (ex: Packers)

- Teams whose incentives to play hard could possibly be changed by the results of other games, either earlier or ongoing.

- Underperforming teams who cannot make the playoffs and have starters who might not play for various reasons. (ex: Browns)

- Players coming off Covid lists or returning from injuries (ex: Derrick Henry.)

It's hard to be surgical with your picks in a week like this one. Again, good luck to everyone.

The Jacksonville Jaguars' final game of the season is on track to be, well, a clown show. One sponsor would rather not be involved.

RoofClaim.com, a roofing company located in Georgia with business in Florida, has sued to avoid being emphasized as the primary sponsor of Sunday's finale against the Indianapolis Colts, according to Mark Long of the Associated Press

Quote:gordonm888Quote:unJon

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.

link to original post

I think I also have spotted a loophole in the game rules for someone to go 0-5 or maybe even 0-6.

link to original post

You cannot pick one and only one game -- see rule 3

That said, I do see a potential loophole to have an 0-5 or 0-6 week.

Quote:Mission146Greetings!

The Week 18 Lines are as follows:

Cowboys (-5) @ Eagles (+5) O/U 43.5

Chiefs (-11.5) @ Broncos (+11.5) O/U 45

Packers (-4) @ Lions (+4) O/U 44.5

Bears (+5.5) @ Vikings (-5.5) O/U 44

Patriots (-6.5) @ Dolphins (+6.5) O/U 40

Colts (-15.5) @ Jaguars (+15.5) O/U 44

Jets (+16) @ Bills (-16) O/U 41

Panthers (+8) @ Buccaneers (-8) O/U 41.5

Titans (-10) @ Texans (+10) O/U 43

Football Team (-7) @ Giants (+7) O/U 38

Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons (+3.5) O/U 40

Steelers (+5) @ Ravens (-5) O/U 41.5

Bengals (+6) @ Browns (-6) O/U 38

Seahawks (+6.5) @ Cardinals (-6.5) O/U 48

49ers (+4.5) @ Rams (-4.5) O/U 44.5

Chargers (-3) @ Raiders (+3) O/U 49.5

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18 Perfection Bonus Available: $20

link to original post

Mission146,

What is the deadline to submit picks for tonights games?

The Week 18 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:

Jaguars +15.5

Giants +7

Steelers +5

Raiders +3-CONFIDENCE

49ers +4.5

AZDuffman:

Giants UNDER 38

Steelers +5

Broncos +11.5

Bengals +6

Bills -16 CONFIDENCE

SOOPOO:

Rams -4.5 Confidence

Lions + 4

Jaguars +15.5

Jets +16

Falcons +3.5

Joeman:

Jaguars +15.5

Raiders +3

Browns -6

Dolphins +6.5

Steelers +5 -Confidence

Gordonm888:

Skips Week 18

Sparty10k:

Patriots -6.5

Football Team -7

Bengals +6

Seahawks under 48

Chargers -3–confidence

RidetheEdge:

Skips Week 18

MWalz9:

Chiefs (-11.5)

CHIEFS UNDER 45

Colts (-15.5)

COLTS UNDER 44

Titans (-10) CONFIDENCE

Wizard:

Lions under 44.5

Bears over 44

Patriots under 40 confidence

Colts over 44

Jets under 41

JohnnyQ:

Packers (-4)

Ravens (-5)

Bengals (+6) CONFIDENCE

Raiders (+3)

Chargers U 49.5

IndyJeffrey

Eagles +5

Lions +4

Colts Under 44

Jets +16

Browns -6

PlayYourCardsRight:

Vikings -5.5

Patriots -6.5 CONFIDENCE

Titans -10

Ravens -5

Cardinals -6.5

scolist:

Lions +4 Confidence

Ravens -5

Texans +10

Chargers Over 49.5

Jets Under 41

JW17:

Broncos +11.5 Confidence

Cardinals (-6.5)

Chargers (-3)

Dolphins (+6.5)

Buccaneers (-8)

EdCollins

Lions +4 Confidence

Raiders +3

49ers +4.5

Football Team +7

Steelers +5

JML24:

Buccaneers -8

Saints -3.5

Seahawks +6.5

49ers +4.5

Raiders +3 CONFIDENCE

FourFiveFace:

Dolphins +6.5

Jaguars +15.5

Giants +7

Seahawks +6.5-Confidence

Raiders +3

miplet:

Bears +5.5

Dolphins +6.5

Steelers +5

Seahawks +6.5-confidence

49ers +4.5

GenWyzgy:

Bears +5.5

Buccaneers -8

Falcons +3.5

Ravens -5 CONFIDENCE

49ers +4.5

JohnZimbo:

Bills -16

Bills under 41

Football Team -7

Football team under 38

Colts under 44

unJon:

Jaguars +15.5

Steelers +5-confidence

Seahawks +6.5

49ers +4.5

Packers -4

Quote:Mission146Quote:unJonQuote:WizardQuote:gordonm888

link to original post

I don't suppose I'm allowed to bet opposite sides of the same game. Shame I wasted my bye week last week. If I had remembered the "most average" prize, I wouldn't have.

link to original post

Rule #9 addresses this:

9.) "Offsetting Picks"

Any Picks made that directly offset one another shall constitute TWO LOSSES and will disqualify the person making such offsetting picks from winning any consolation prize. "Offsetting Picks," are picking two opposite things to happen in the same game.

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.

link to original post

I don’t think there’s a loophole, but do let us know next week. Rule #5 disqualifies a person from winning consolation prizes if they miss making Picks other than the one allotted Skip Week. If a person fails to make Picks for the first time, then they automatically use their Skip Week and a person may not choose to take 0-5.

link to original post

Here’s the 0-5 loophole I saw.

Quote:Rule 2B. This has never happened, but if you make, "Early Game," picks and then send a new set of Picks after the, "Early Game," has kicked off, you will receive a record of 0-5 for that week.

So if there are Saturday or London games, you send in picks with the early game. Then later change picks. Get 0-5. No mention of being disqualified from the consolation prizes.

Mission146 (5-1)

JAGUARS +15.5 (win)

GIANTS +7 (loss)

STEELERS +5 (win)

RAIDERS +3 CONFIDENCE (win)

49ERS +4.5 (win)

AZDuffman (6-0)

GIANTS UNDER 38 (win)

STEELERS +5 (win)

BRONCOS +11.5 (win)

BENGALS +6 (win)

BILLS -16 CONFIDENCE (win)

SOOPOO (2-4)

RAMS -4.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

LIONS + 4 (win)

JAGUARS +15.5 (win)

JETS +16 (loss)

FALCONS +3.5 (loss)

Joeman (5-1)

JAGUARS +15.5 (win)

RAIDERS +3 (win)

BROWNS -6 (loss)

DOLPHINS +6.5 (win)

STEELERS +5 CONFIDENCE (win)

Sparty10k (2-4)

PATRIOTS -6.5 (loss)

FOOTBALL TEAM -7 (win)

BENGALS +6 (win)

SEAHAWKS UNDER 48 (loss)

CHARGERS -3 CONFIDENCE (loss)

MWalz9 (1-5)

CHIEFS (-11.5) (loss)

CHIEFS UNDER 45 (loss)

COLTS (-15.5) (loss)

COLTS UNDER 44 (win)

TITANS (-10) CONFIDENCE (loss)

Wizard (2-4)

LIONS UNDER 44.5 (loss)

BEARS OVER 44 (win)

PATRIOTS UNDER 40 CONFIDENCE (loss)

COLTS OVER 44 (loss)

JETS UNDER 41 (win)

JohnnyQ (3-3)

PACKERS (-4) (loss)

RAVENS (-5) (loss)

BENGALS (+6) CONFIDENCE (win)

RAIDERS (+3) (win)

CHARGERS UNDER 49.5 (loss)

IndyJeffrey (2-3)

EAGLES +5 (loss)

LIONS +4 (win)

COLTS UNDER 44 (win)

JETS +16 (loss)

BROWNS -6 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (1-5)

VIKINGS -5.5 (win)

PATRIOTS -6.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

TITANS -10 (loss)

RAVENS -5 (loss)

CARDINALS -6.5 (loss)

scolist (5-1)

LIONS +4 CONFIDENCE (win)

RAVENS -5 (loss)

TEXANS +10 (win)

CHARGERS OVER 49.5 (win)

JETS UNDER 41 (win)

JW17 (4-2)

BRONCOS +11.5 CONFIDENCE (win)

CARDINALS (-6.5) (loss)

CHARGERS (-3) (loss)

DOLPHINS (+6.5) (win)

BUCCANEERS (-8) (win)

EdCollins (6-0)

LIONS +4 CONFIDENCE (win)

RAIDERS +3 (win)

49ERS +4.5 (win)

FOOTBALL TEAM -7 (win)

STEELERS +5 (win)

JML24 (6-0)

BUCCANEERS -8 (win)

SAINTS -3.5 (win)

SEAHAWKS +6.5 (win)

49ERS +4.5 (win)

RAIDERS +3 CONFIDENCE (win)

FourFiveFace (5-1)

DOLPHINS +6.5 (win)

JAGUARS +15.5 (win)

GIANTS +7 (loss)

SEAHAWKS +6.5 CONFIDENCE (win)

RAIDERS +3 (win)

miplet (5-1)

BEARS +5.5 (loss)

DOLPHINS +6.5 (win)

STEELERS +5 (win)

SEAHAWKS +6.5 CONFIDENCE (win)

49ERS +4.5 (win)

GenWyzgy (2-4)

BEARS +5.5 (loss)

BUCCANEERS -8 (win)

FALCONS +3.5 (loss)

RAVENS -5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

49ERS +4.5 (win)

JohnZimbo (5-0)

BILLS -16 (win)

BILLS UNDER 41 (win)

FOOTBALL TEAM -7 (win)

FOOTBALL TEAM UNDER 38 (win)

COLTS UNDER 44 (win)

unJon (5-1)

JAGUARS +15.5 (win)

STEELERS +5 CONFIDENCE (win)

SEAHAWKS +6.5 (win)

49ERS +4.5 (win)

PACKERS -4 (loss)

UNOFFICIAL FINAL STANDINGS

Name | Wins | Losses | % |
---|---|---|---|

JohnZimbo | 71 | 36 | 66.36% |

RideTheEdge | 67 | 34 | 66.34% |

unJon | 65 | 41 | 61.32% |

EdCollins | 64 | 42 | 60.38% |

jml24 | 51 | 39 | 56.67% |

scolist | 54 | 44 | 55.10% |

miplet | 56 | 46 | 54.90% |

Mission146 | 54 | 47 | 53.47% |

PlayYourCardsRight | 53 | 47 | 53.00% |

Joeman | 56 | 50 | 52.83% |

FourFiveFace | 55 | 52 | 51.40% |

IndyJeffrey | 53 | 51 | 50.96% |

AZDuffman | 50 | 49 | 50.51% |

JW17 | 51 | 50 | 50.50% |

Gordonm888 | 50 | 50 | 50.00% |

Wizard | 49 | 51 | 49.00% |

mwalz9 | 49 | 53 | 48.04% |

SOOPOO | 49 | 58 | 45.79% |

JohnnyQ | 44 | 56 | 44.00% |

GenWyzgy | 43 | 58 | 42.57% |

Sparty10k | 40 | 67 | 37.38% |

Totals | 1,124 | 1,021 | 52.40% |

Record of Skip Weeks

miplet: Week 2

JW17: Week 6, Week 17

jml24: Week 8

Mission146: Week 9

PlayYourCardsRight: Week 12

scolist: Week 12

GenWyzgy: Week 16

mwalz9: Week 16

AZDuffman: Week 17

JohnnyQ: Week 17

Wizard: Week 17

Gordonm888: Week 18

RideTheEdge: Week 18

Congratulations to all!

Thanks for Mission for running this fun pool with a large overlay. And thanks to EdCollins for the tables that make it so easy to follow!! And thanks also to him for not picking one more winner over the season to keep me in third by a hair!

Quote:unJonJohnZimbo pulls it off by a hair! Ride the edge may question the skip week choice.

Hat's off to Johnzimbo for going perfect that last week to catch me. It took a perfect performance, so I can't regret skipping the week to compel excellence.

I echo unJon's appreciation to Mission and EdCollins for all the work and treasure to make this happen.

Steve

Our two leaders each picked favorites a bit more than underdogs, and each picked Unders much more often than Overs.

Congrats to all the Winners both big and small!

Not half, but it was EdCollins, AZDuffman and JML24!

Quote:EdCollins

UNOFFICIAL FINAL STANDINGS

Name Wins Losses % JohnZimbo 71 36 66.36% RideTheEdge 67 34 66.34% unJon 65 41 61.32% EdCollins 64 42 60.38% jml24 51 39 56.67% scolist 54 44 55.10% miplet 56 46 54.90% Mission146 54 47 53.47% PlayYourCardsRight 53 47 53.00% Joeman 56 50 52.83% FourFiveFace 55 52 51.40% IndyJeffrey 53 51 50.96% AZDuffman 50 49 50.51% JW17 51 50 50.50% Gordonm888 50 50 50.00% Wizard 49 51 49.00% mwalz9 49 53 48.04% SOOPOO 49 58 45.79% JohnnyQ 44 56 44.00% GenWyzgy 43 58 42.57% Sparty10k 40 67 37.38% Totals 1,124 1,021 52.40%

link to original post

Greetings!

First and foremost, congratulations to our Prognosticator Supreme, JohnZimbo, on the 5-0 (or 6-0) week he needed to lock up the first place finish for this year's contest!

Personally, I think that RidetheEdge made the best play in Week 18. I tend to try not to be results-oriented in my thinking, so I assume RidetheEdge figured JohnZimbo was less likely to go 5-0 (or 6-0) than he was to just straight up out pick RidetheEdge, and even if JohnZimbo did go 5-0, RidetheEdge would still need at least a 4-1 week just to improve his winning percentage.

All the same, congratulations to RideTheEdge on a very well-earned second place finish!

I'd like to congratulate UnJon on third place, which is the final paying spot as far as having a good record goes. That's a pretty wild finish because it seems to me that UnJon has been sitting in third for several weeks now, but I could be mistaken.

Congratulations to GordonM888 on being the most milquetoast player in this game! It's perhaps fitting that his record for the final week (0 Wins, 0 Losses) is the same thing he had as to start the season and also his net result for all the games he did pick. That's about as average as it gets!

Finally, congratulations (?) to Sparty10k on....damn your picks were putrid. Were you trying to lose from the outset? If you were coin flips, you'd be remarkable, but since you're a man...it just means that you suck at picking NFL Games. The good news is that it pays to suck in this game!

Also, congratulations to our many Perfection Bonus winners:

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18: EDCollins ($7), AZDuffman ($7), JML24 ($7)

TOTAL WINNINGS

PERFECTION BONUS WINNINGS:

AZDuffman: $47

UnJon: $40

RidetheEdge: $40

JohnZimbo: $25

JohnnyQ: $20

Gordonm888: $20

Scolist: $20

JW17: $20

PlayYourCardsRight: $15

SOOPOO: $15

EdCollins: $12

JML24: $7

That looks like it comes out right, so now we will just add in the other prizes:

1st Place: JohnZimbo---$300 + Entry Fees

2nd Place: RidetheEdge---$175

3rd Place: UnJon---$25

Most Average: Gordonm888----$75

You Suck: Sparty10k----$75

TOTAL WINNINGS

1.) JohnZimbo: $325 + ENTRY FEES

2.) RidetheEdge $190 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

3.) Gordonm888 $70 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

4.) Sparty10K $50 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

5.) Unjon $40 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

6.) AZDuffman: $22 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

7.) JohnnyQ $20---Arrangement TBD

8.) Scolist: $20---Arrangement TBD

9.) JW17: $20---Arrangement TBD

10.) PlayYourCards Right: $15---Arrangement TBD

11.) SOOPOO: $15---Arrangement TBD

12.) EdCollins $12---Arrangement TBD

13.) JML24: $7---Arrangement TBD

Owes $25 Entry Fee to JohnZimbo (No Other Action Needed)

14.) FastEddie (To be Paid by Mission146)

15.) Miplet

16.) Joeman

17.) FourFiveFace

18.) IndyJeffrey

19.) Wizard

20.) mWalz9

21.) GenWyzgy

PAYOUT PROCEDURE

A.) If your name appears in numbers #14-#21, then please reach out to JohnZimbo and arrange to pay him your $25 Entry Fee at your earliest convenience.

B.) If you name appears in numbers #7-#13, then you have winnings, but they are insufficient to cover your Entry Fee. I can either send you your winnings and you send JohnZimbo $25, or we can work something out where you send me $25 - (Winnings) and I pay $25 to JohnZimbo on your behalf. PM's to this effect will be sent later this evening.

C.) If your name appears in #1-#6, then you have won more than prizes sufficient to cover your Entry Fee and I will send you PM's later this evening to determine how you want to get paid.

NOTE: I usually don't do payouts until after the Super Bowl in case there is/are a duplicative winner(s) relative to the Playoffs Game, but chances are that I will go ahead and get the payouts all arranged this week and do all of the payouts one day next week---most likely Wednesday 1/19/21.

Quote:Mission146Quote:EdCollins

UNOFFICIAL FINAL STANDINGS

Name Wins Losses % JohnZimbo 71 36 66.36% RideTheEdge 67 34 66.34% unJon 65 41 61.32% EdCollins 64 42 60.38% jml24 51 39 56.67% scolist 54 44 55.10% miplet 56 46 54.90% Mission146 54 47 53.47% PlayYourCardsRight 53 47 53.00% Joeman 56 50 52.83% FourFiveFace 55 52 51.40% IndyJeffrey 53 51 50.96% AZDuffman 50 49 50.51% JW17 51 50 50.50% Gordonm888 50 50 50.00% Wizard 49 51 49.00% mwalz9 49 53 48.04% SOOPOO 49 58 45.79% JohnnyQ 44 56 44.00% GenWyzgy 43 58 42.57% Sparty10k 40 67 37.38% Totals 1,124 1,021 52.40%

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Greetings!

First and foremost, congratulations to our Prognosticator Supreme, JohnZimbo, on the 5-0 (or 6-0) week he needed to lock up the first place finish for this year's contest!

Personally, I think that RidetheEdge made the best play in Week 18. I tend to try not to be results-oriented in my thinking, so I assume RidetheEdge figured JohnZimbo was less likely to go 5-0 (or 6-0) than he was to just straight up out pick RidetheEdge, and even if JohnZimbo did go 5-0, RidetheEdge would still need at least a 4-1 week just to improve his winning percentage.

All the same, congratulations to RideTheEdge on a very well-earned second place finish!

I'd like to congratulate UnJon on third place, which is the final paying spot as far as having a good record goes. That's a pretty wild finish because it seems to me that UnJon has been sitting in third for several weeks now, but I could be mistaken.

Congratulations to GordonM888 on being the most milquetoast player in this game! It's perhaps fitting that his record for the final week (0 Wins, 0 Losses) is the same thing he had as to start the season and also his net result for all the games he did pick. That's about as average as it gets!

Finally, congratulations (?) to Sparty10k on....damn your picks were putrid. Were you trying to lose from the outset? If you were coin flips, you'd be remarkable, but since you're a man...it just means that you suck at picking NFL Games. The good news is that it pays to suck in this game!

Also, congratulations to our many Perfection Bonus winners:

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18: EDCollins ($7), AZDuffman ($7), JML24 ($7)

TOTAL WINNINGS

PERFECTION BONUS WINNINGS:

AZDuffman: $47

UnJon: $40

RidetheEdge: $40

JohnZimbo: $25

JohnnyQ: $20

Gordonm888: $20

Scolist: $20

JW17: $20

PlayYourCardsRight: $15

SOOPOO: $15

EdCollins: $12

JML24: $7

That looks like it comes out right, so now we will just add in the other prizes:

1st Place: JohnZimbo---$300 + Entry Fees

2nd Place: RidetheEdge---$175

3rd Place: UnJon---$25

Most Average: Gordonm888----$75

You Suck: Sparty10k----$75

TOTAL WINNINGS

1.) JohnZimbo: $325 + ENTRY FEES

2.) RidetheEdge $190 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

3.) Gordonm888 $70 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

4.) Sparty10K $50 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

5.) Unjon $40 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

6.) AZDuffman: $22 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)

7.) JohnnyQ $20---Arrangement TBD

8.) Scolist: $20---Arrangement TBD

9.) JW17: $20---Arrangement TBD

10.) PlayYourCards Right: $15---Arrangement TBD

11.) SOOPOO: $15---Arrangement TBD

12.) EdCollins $12---Arrangement TBD

13.) JML24: $7---Arrangement TBD

Owes $25 Entry Fee to JohnZimbo (No Other Action Needed)

14.) FastEddie (To be Paid by Mission146)

15.) Miplet

16.) Joeman

17.) FourFiveFace

18.) IndyJeffrey

19.) Wizard

20.) mWalz9

21.) GenWyzgy

PAYOUT PROCEDURE

A.) If your name appears in numbers #14-#21, then please reach out to JohnZimbo and arrange to pay him your $25 Entry Fee at your earliest convenience.

B.) If you name appears in numbers #7-#13, then you have winnings, but they are insufficient to cover your Entry Fee. I can either send you your winnings and you send JohnZimbo $25, or we can work something out where you send me $25 - (Winnings) and I pay $25 to JohnZimbo on your behalf. PM's to this effect will be sent later this evening.

C.) If your name appears in #1-#6, then you have won more than prizes sufficient to cover your Entry Fee and I will send you PM's later this evening to determine how you want to get paid.

NOTE: I usually don't do payouts until after the Super Bowl in case there is/are a duplicative winner(s) relative to the Playoffs Game, but chances are that I will go ahead and get the payouts all arranged this week and do all of the payouts one day next week---most likely Wednesday 1/19/21.

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Thanks for all your work. But your first place analysis was incorrect. Had RTE gone 4-2, his percentage WOULD have increased. As a matter of fact, he would have tied for first place with a 4-2 record. That doesn’t change your correct conclusion that he made the correct strategic move by taking a bye week.

Quote:SOOPOO

Thanks for all your work. But your first place analysis was incorrect. Had RTE gone 4-2, his percentage WOULD have increased. As a matter of fact, he would have tied for first place with a 4-2 record. That doesn’t change your correct conclusion that he made the correct strategic move by taking a bye week.

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Same exact record in that event, you're quite right!

Thank you for playing and also thank you to everyone who played! I'm looking forward to the Playoff Picks Game since we should have at least twenty players this year and then it seems like we will barely have a break before it is time for the March Madness game.

I haven't exactly figured out the rules for a March Madness game. It might be a somewhat generic bracket game, or I might incorporate a scoring system by which advancing higher-seeded teams also matters---probably the latter because you can play a straight up bracket game anywhere.

Quote:Mission146Quote:SOOPOO

Thanks for all your work. But your first place analysis was incorrect. Had RTE gone 4-2, his percentage WOULD have increased. As a matter of fact, he would have tied for first place with a 4-2 record. That doesn’t change your correct conclusion that he made the correct strategic move by taking a bye week.

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Same exact record in that event, you're quite right!

Thank you for playing and also thank you to everyone who played! I'm looking forward to the Playoff Picks Game since we should have at least twenty players this year and then it seems like we will barely have a break before it is time for the March Madness game.

I haven't exactly figured out the rules for a March Madness game. It might be a somewhat generic bracket game, or I might incorporate a scoring system by which advancing higher-seeded teams also matters---probably the latter because you can play a straight up bracket game anywhere.

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My favorite NCAA bracket requires assigning a score from 1 to 64 (or 68) to each team and each time that team advances you get that many points. Very simple for players as they only do it once when they fill out their brackets and the scoring is very simple with very few ties.

Quote:DRich

My favorite NCAA bracket requires assigning a score from 1 to 64 (or 68) to each team and each time that team advances you get that many points. Very simple for players as they only do it once when they fill out their brackets and the scoring is very simple with very few ties.

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I take it you will play the March Madness game?

I'm thinking of doing not exactly that, but something along those lines.

Basically, you would earn points for advancing teams correctly AND the team's seed would also play a factor. I'm thinking something like this:

Fixed Points

Advance Team to Round of 32 Correctly: 1 Point Per Team

Advance Team to Sweet 16 Correctly: 2 Points Per Team

Advance Team to Elite Eight Correctly: 4 Points Per Team

Advance Team to Final Four Correctly: 6 Points Per Team

Advance Team to Championship Game: 10 Points Per Team

Pick the Correct Winner: 20 Points

In addition to these accumulated points, players would receive additional points if the teams that they advance correctly are higher-seeded teams. In addition to the points mentioned above, players will receive additional points for each advancing team that are equal to the team's seed divided by two:

Thus, if you pick a 16 ranked team to advance to the Round of 32 and are correct, then you would get the automatic one point for advancing a team, but you would also get eight extra points because you had a 16 seed advancing, so you would receive nine points for that advancement.

As far as tiebreakers are concerned, if there are any tiebreakers that are even possibly needed in advance of the Championship game, (it will be easy to determine if ties are impossible) then players will be asked to pick the exact score of the Championship game with the priority order as follows:

A.) Picking the correct champion.

B.) Closest in margin of victory.

C.) Closest in Game Total score. (Both teams)

Quote:Mission146Quote:DRich

My favorite NCAA bracket requires assigning a score from 1 to 64 (or 68) to each team and each time that team advances you get that many points. Very simple for players as they only do it once when they fill out their brackets and the scoring is very simple with very few ties.

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I take it you will play the March Madness game?

I'm thinking of doing not exactly that, but something along those lines.

Basically, you would earn points for advancing teams correctly AND the team's seed would also play a factor. I'm thinking something like this:

Fixed Points

Advance Team to Round of 32 Correctly: 1 Point Per Team

Advance Team to Sweet 16 Correctly: 2 Points Per Team

Advance Team to Elite Eight Correctly: 4 Points Per Team

Advance Team to Final Four Correctly: 6 Points Per Team

Advance Team to Championship Game: 10 Points Per Team

Pick the Correct Winner: 20 Points

In addition to these accumulated points, players would receive additional points if the teams that they advance correctly are higher-seeded teams. In addition to the points mentioned above, players will receive additional points for each advancing team that are equal to the team's seed divided by two:

Thus, if you pick a 16 ranked team to advance to the Round of 32 and are correct, then you would get the automatic one point for advancing a team, but you would also get eight extra points because you had a 16 seed advancing, so you would receive nine points for that advancement.

As far as tiebreakers are concerned, if there are any tiebreakers that are even possibly needed in advance of the Championship game, (it will be easy to determine if ties are impossible) then players will be asked to pick the exact score of the Championship game with the priority order as follows:

A.) Picking the correct champion.

B.) Closest in margin of victory.

C.) Closest in Game Total score. (Both teams)

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I like that. Yes, I will play if it only requires picking once. The weekly games are just too much for me as I know I will accidentally skip weeks.

a) the average win rate of NFL picks in week 18 was our best of the year.

b) no other contestant tied me at 0.500 for most mediocre. I feel particular empathy for AZDuffman who needed a 5-0 in Week 18 to finish at 0.500 but went 6-0 because he made a confidence pick.

Congrats for everyone who won some sort of payout, and especially to JohnZimbo for 1st place and to RideTheEdge, UnJon and EdCollins for such high win percentages.

Shout out to Mission and Ed for their work, creativity and diligence that produces an amazingly fun contest. Thank you very much.

Quote:gordonm888

b) no other contestant tied me at 0.500 for most mediocre. I feel particular empathy for AZDuffman who needed a 5-0 in Week 18 to finish at 0.500 but went 6-0 because he made a confidence pick.

I figured better to go like 4-2 to get close. Like going for the 2 point conversion as a coach and realizing it cost you your block pool square. How did I know I would get them all right?!

Quote:unJonJohnZimbo pulls it off by a hair! Ride the edge may question the skip week choice.

Quote:Mission146

Personally, I think that RidetheEdge made the best play in Week 18. I tend to try not to be results-oriented in my thinking, so I assume RidetheEdge figured JohnZimbo was less likely to go 5-0 (or 6-0) than he was to just straight up out pick RidetheEdge...

I created a simple model prior to week 17 that informed my decision to skip week 18. I decided to write that up in a separate thread https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36838-modeling-the-wov-nfl-picks-game-or-after-the-fact-rationale-to-skip-week-18/#post837582.

Short answer based on some simplifying assumptions, I think I had a 90%+ chance of winning by skipping week 18, but only 70% to 85% chance if I made picks the final week, with my best guess being just under 80%. See the linked post to suffer through endless detail.

In case I haven't said so publicly yet, congratulations to Johnzimbo for a great season.

Quote:JohnzimboI went 5-0 to barely squeak past Ridetheedge and, truth be told, I miscalculated and thought 4-1 would do it. After I went 3-0 in the early games I checked my math and thought crap I need to Buffalo under 41 and to win by 17 or more...and they were up 13-10 at the time so I figured I was cooked. Somehow they won 27-10 and covered by one point.

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Somehow? Simple answer!

J

E

T

S

JETS-JETS-JETS!

I kind of let the time get away from me today (and got home later than expected), so I'm going to send those PM's out to everyone in the morning.