Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
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July 19th, 2021 at 6:30:51 AM permalink
Greetings!

Please enjoy my gratuitous bump of the NFL Picks Game Discussion Thread; there will be a joke at the end to satisfy Forum Rules.

I'm no mathematician, but I believe that I am contributing a minimum of $650 in added prizes to this game for the potential of up to $830 (there are eighteen weeks this season) in prizes. The minimum of $650 is based on the remote possibility that the Perfection Bonus is not won all season.

The Entry Fee is $25, so if you're interested and enjoy the NFL...or just like bets that are presumably +EV...please click below:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36194-official-2021-wov-picks-game-thread/#post814222

To be clear, at 650/25 = 26 players, my guaranteed contributions to this game equal almost 100% of all Entry Fees. It's actually 27 players because, due to my contributions, I do not pay an Entry Fee beyond that.

This is on top of the winner wins all Entry Fees. So, it's a 200% game assuming equal skill. There's not equal skill. Some players are demonstrably better than others, but it's tough to quantify an exact probability of winning for any one person.

I want to say most years have seen ~30 total players to give you an idea, but I didn't take the time to sum them up and divide, so let's say 30 +/-10.

If we reach...let's say...fifty players I might consider kicking in a bit more this year, but it's not a guarantee and I'm not going to go into specifics. In fact, I might do it by way of issuing fun little random week-to-week propositions for potential winnings.

However, any plans for that in the unlikely event we hit fifty players remain a secret, even to me. I tried to get myself to tell me, but he just won't do it; he's such a pain, sometimes.

Um...I have added enough information that no joke is needed, this time. This has gone from a gratuitous bump to a legitimate thread add.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 19th, 2021 at 6:50:43 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

More than a Field Goal.

I guess we are trying to qualify where we should be making quantitative predictions: Ravens -5.5



I see -4.5
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14583
July 19th, 2021 at 6:53:59 AM permalink
VegasInsider? Some money must have come in on the Ravens since yesterday; it was -4 yesterday. -5.5 is where I would put the line.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
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July 19th, 2021 at 7:03:33 AM permalink
Of course, I would hope as many people as possible who talk about betting the NFL here, there and around the internet come and participate.

The skilled NFL Pickers.

How could they turn down the +EV? Makes no sense. They're not giving anything away. I do not open the PM's until after 10:00a.m. on Sunday and only usually post the Picks on time. Many of the lines are slightly stale by then anyway.

So, why would someone skilled at picking NFL Games who talks about doing so NOT participate?

Could it be, as Porky Pig would say, that they might be a, "Puh-Puh-Puh...Puh-Puh-Puh-Puh-Puh..."

I'd better not. See you guys in a bit!

(This is not directed at anyone on this site whatsoever. I just thought about it and realized it could be construed that way. Itís directed to pick salespeople.)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Mission146
July 19th, 2021 at 7:43:04 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

VegasInsider? Some money must have come in on the Ravens since yesterday; it was -4 yesterday. -5.5 is where I would put the line.



No. Usually check vegasinsider but happened to just be on the site I use to gamble and that was the line there.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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Mission146
August 4th, 2021 at 9:37:52 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

-snip-
***If someone could perhaps remember to remind me to do the PM Invites on or around August 1st, I would be endlessly appreciative.



I know you have been busy with the mod thread stuff, but do not forget to send invites out.
Put me down as a maybe, I still need to read all the rules.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14583
August 4th, 2021 at 9:38:34 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Quote: Mission146

-snip-
***If someone could perhaps remember to remind me to do the PM Invites on or around August 1st, I would be endlessly appreciative.



I know you have been busy with the mod thread stuff, but do not forget to send invites out.
Put me down as a maybe, I still need to read all the rules.



Awesome, thanks for the reminder! I'll have to get started on this a bit later.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
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Mission146
August 6th, 2021 at 1:28:50 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

1.) Please read the rules and state that you wish to play in a post in THIS thread. If you do that, then you will automatically be entered into the game and will receive a PM from me when Week 1 Lines are posted.



I'm in. Thank you 100x for coordinating week in and week out.

WooHoo!

Now that I can wager from my not-so-comfortable couch, unlike 2019, perhaps I'll put more money to back up my picks. Thus, guaranteeing a lock for the last place prize (if that still exists)!
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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Mission146
August 6th, 2021 at 1:42:00 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

Please enjoy my gratuitous bump of the NFL Picks Game Discussion Thread; there will be a joke at the end to satisfy Forum Rules.
{snip}



You had me at "Greetings!"

So far, how many people have expressed their intention to play?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14583
August 6th, 2021 at 1:43:38 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

You had me at "Greetings!"

So far, how many people have expressed their intention to play?



Ten to fifteen, but I haven't really started the PM process yet. I'd expect there to be 25-40 by the time we kick this game off.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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