Poll

5 votes (26.31%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 125
  • Posts: 13038
January 26th, 2021 at 11:18:48 AM permalink
Apparently, someone has $600,000 coming to him at SouthPoint if the Bucs win the Super Bowl:

https://nypost.com/2020/08/25/betting-nfl-futures-harder-than-ever-with-no-preseason/

Quote:

“The fact that there’s no NFL preseason — and the NBA and NHL playoffs are front and center — has impacted football betting,” said Vinny Magliulo, a longtime Las Vegas bookmaker. “But I think you will see an uptick soon. Once we get to the first weekend, they will be there betting with both fists, and I think we will see a big spike on futures.”

It was mid-March when Brady signed with Tampa Bay. About two weeks prior, Magliulo said, a bettor showed up at the South Point sportsbook to wager $10,000 on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 60/1. Those odds have dropped to 10/1. The last five months have seen no other major moves on the futures board.



What would you guys do here? This opens up a world of possibilities. An obvious way to lock up profits (if you were inclined AND Wizard would hate this) is to simply take the Chiefs on the ML for some amount such that you profit either way.

Even prior to that, with the signing of Brady and the movement to +1000, you probably could have easily sold a stake in that +6000 ticket such that you could free roll the thing and still have the other person feeling like they got value.

But, let's pretend that we know that didn't happen. You've got the potentially golden ticket, what would you do?

(Also ignore for the purposes of the question that if this guy is running around tossing 10k on SB futures, 600k probably doesn't matter much to him)
Vultures can't be choosers.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2180
January 26th, 2021 at 11:28:52 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Apparently, someone has $600,000 coming to him at SouthPoint if the Bucs win the Super Bowl:

https://nypost.com/2020/08/25/betting-nfl-futures-harder-than-ever-with-no-preseason/



What would you guys do here? This opens up a world of possibilities. An obvious way to lock up profits (if you were inclined AND Wizard would hate this) is to simply take the Chiefs on the ML for some amount such that you profit either way.

Even prior to that, with the signing of Brady and the movement to +1000, you probably could have easily sold a stake in that +6000 ticket such that you could free roll the thing and still have the other person feeling like they got value.

But, let's pretend that we know that didn't happen. You've got the potentially golden ticket, what would you do?

(Also ignore for the purposes of the question that if this guy is running around tossing 10k on SB futures, 600k probably doesn't matter much to him)



I recall reading this is the same guy that made $45k on Brady to Bucs and made almost $300k on Lamar winning MVP last year.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 177
  • Posts: 10089
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 26th, 2021 at 11:35:49 AM permalink
I'm very interested in what I assume will be extremely creative alternatives.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 96
  • Posts: 4544
January 29th, 2021 at 9:11:55 AM permalink
William Hill props as of Thursday 11 AM Pacific. Note that there are no bets like "how long will the national anthem last," "what will the first song of the halftime show be," or, "what color liquid will be dumped on the winning head coach," although you can bet on who will be the MVP.

Yes on Safety is +525
Yes on Overtime is +575
Last Score of Game is FG/Safety is +135
Successful Onside Kick is 10-1
You can also get 30-1 odds that a particular team's first score will be a safety

Here's one I like:
+135 that the last play of the game will not be a QB keep of some sort (including taking a knee)

Update: Bovada props
Game
TD/Field Goal-specific
Specials (including things like the national anthem)
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Jan 29, 2021
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 7006
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 29th, 2021 at 9:19:16 AM permalink
For me that is a significant sum so I would probably put $250k on chiefs moneyline to lock up a $200k win if the Chiefs win the game and $350k if Bucs win.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22563
January 29th, 2021 at 10:38:12 AM permalink
Here are some of the William Hill props and what my NFL prop bet calculator makes the fair line. Usual warning that I haven't updated the calculator with new data in several years.

Prop Yes No Fair
Team to score first wins -160 140 -154
Team to score last wins -190 170 -170
First score TD -150 130 -239
Last score of first half is a TD 100 -120 117
Last score TD -155 135 -249
Under 12.5 kickoffs -115 -105 ?
Total TDs under 6.5 140 -160 ?
Field goals under 3.5 -125 105 -128
FG in first qtr -140 120 106
FG in second qtr -280 240 -247
FG in third qtr -135 115 100
FG in fourth qtr -175 155 -147
First downs under 48.5 -120 100 ?
Two-point conversion 190 -220 487
Total punts under 6.5 -140 120 ?
Largest lead under 14.5 -110 -110 125
Both teams have lead in first half -125 105 128
Both teams have lead in second half -140 120 169
Scoreless quarter 400 -500 653
Both teams score in every quarter 370 -450 ?
Three consecutive scores -175 155 -164
Four consecutive scores 280 -340 252
Game tied after 0-0 -150 130 111
3-point margin of victory 350 -430 676
7-point margin of victory 450 -600 784
Total points odd -125 105 -116
Safety 525 -750 1604
Overtime 575 -850 1885
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 1189
January 29th, 2021 at 11:01:55 AM permalink
2020 NFL scoring was highest for a season:
https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-finishes-as-highest-scoring-season-in-nfl-history

Drop in offensive holding calls (I refer to them as "drive killers") likely one reason for increased scoring.
Defensive pass interference rise may be another.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/penalties.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/penalties.htm
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7505
January 29th, 2021 at 3:41:37 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are some of the William Hill props and what my NFL prop bet calculator makes the fair line. Usual warning that I haven't updated the calculator with new data in several years.

Prop Yes No Fair
Team to score first wins -160 140 -154
Team to score last wins -190 170 -170
First score TD -150 130 -239
Last score of first half is a TD 100 -120 117
Last score TD -155 135 -249
Under 12.5 kickoffs -115 -105 ?
Total TDs under 6.5 140 -160 ?
Field goals under 3.5 -125 105 -128
FG in first qtr -140 120 106
FG in second qtr -280 240 -247
FG in third qtr -135 115 100
FG in fourth qtr -175 155 -147
First downs under 48.5 -120 100 ?
Two-point conversion 190 -220 487
Total punts under 6.5 -140 120 ?
Largest lead under 14.5 -110 -110 125
Both teams have lead in first half -125 105 128
Both teams have lead in second half -140 120 169
Scoreless quarter 400 -500 653
Both teams score in every quarter 370 -450 ?
Three consecutive scores -175 155 -164
Four consecutive scores 280 -340 252
Game tied after 0-0 -150 130 111
3-point margin of victory 350 -430 676
7-point margin of victory 450 -600 784
Total points odd -125 105 -116
Safety 525 -750 1604
Overtime 575 -850 1885



I love FGs under 3.5
I love 'no' on scoreless quarter
And in keeping with the man who lists these.... I love no safety!
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 7006
January 29th, 2021 at 3:51:05 PM permalink
BetMGM had a $2.3 million dollar bet on the Bucs today +3.5 -115.
Living longer does not always infer +EV

  • Jump to: