Poll

5 votes (26.31%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
willbert
January 24th, 2021 at 8:09:18 PM permalink
I make a post like this every year handicapping the game. My method is quite simple. My estimate of the points scored by a give team is:

(average points scored per game + average points opponent allows)/2.

I do this for the entire season, including the post-season games.

For Kansas City's 19 games they scored 533 points and allowed 403.

For Tampa Bay's 20 games, they scored 584 and allowed 424.

Taking an average per game for KC:

Scored = 28.05
Allowed = 21.21

Taking an average per game for TB:

Scored = 29.20
Allowed = 21.20

Using my formula, I estimate:
KC to score (28.05 + 21.20)/2 = 24.63
TB to score (29.20 + 21.21) = 25.21

So, TB score score 0.58 more points.

The over/under I make 24.63 + 25.21 = 49.83.

The early lines are:
TB + 3.5
Ov/un 55.5

Thus, my crude handicapping recommend Tampa Bay and the Under. Not surprisingly, these are the underdog and the under, which are the sharp side of most games.

The question for the poll is what is your prediction?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
coilman
coilman
Joined: Jan 29, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
January 24th, 2021 at 8:48:58 PM permalink
But will there be a Safety?
unJon
unJon
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January 24th, 2021 at 8:59:50 PM permalink
It opened at Chiefs -3 and 57.5 at my book. I took under 57.5. My number was 52. I thought -3 was the right number.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TomG
TomG
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January 24th, 2021 at 9:12:27 PM permalink
Just took Tampa +3.5 for first bet of Super Bowl season. Already had a little on the Chiefs +225 and NFC +4. Had Packers +6000 and Bucs over Bills at +1250, which are obviously dead, but would have been nice. I predict I will bet more heavily on the Bucs, than the Chiefs. Last year I was biggest on quarters, this year I predict it will be player props.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 25th, 2021 at 12:26:45 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

I predict I will bet more heavily on the Bucs, than the Chiefs. Last year I was biggest on quarters, this year I predict it will be player props.




I enjoyed your post quite a bit Tom, predicting what you yourself will do
knowing you a little bit I'm sure you were predicting based on where you think you will find the best bets
correct?




*
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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January 25th, 2021 at 3:26:06 AM permalink
TB Over has been a good bet the past few years, but the lines have a high over around 56.5. KC defensive backs are sticking to receivers like glue. But the problem on the under is that we could see KC get 35 points or more then Brady gets some garbage scores late,

Watching yesterdays games I thought a fair line was KC -3.5. The guessing lines podcast should be out today or tomorrow, will be interesting to see what they discuss on it.

In my parts there is extra juice to lay 3 points on KC, -118. Think I'm paying that?

Bills are +600 for next year for those of you who like to shop early.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 25th, 2021 at 5:21:56 AM permalink
At 3.5 I love KC. It just seems like their offense is 'different' than all the other teams in the league. KC 38 TB 27 So KC and over. My bets on things like this tend to be correct 49% of the time or so.

I will say this. I had one 'super best bet' yesterday, and it was on Josh Allen rushing over (LOL... I can't remember the number, but I think it was 42.5?) and he had 80 or so.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 25th, 2021 at 5:34:36 AM permalink
.......................

this is one thing outside of the stats which might be a factor
the Bucs have faced only 1 highly mobile QB the entire season including the playoffs
that was Mahomes one time and they lost
they're not used to playing against quick and deceptive QBs who can scamper
they're likely to have a lot of trouble with Mahomes


*
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 25th, 2021 at 5:42:56 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

At 3.5 I love KC. It just seems like their offense is 'different' than all the other teams in the league. KC 38 TB 27 So KC and over. My bets on things like this tend to be correct 49% of the time or so.



The line on KC has shifted to -3 -120/-125.

Looks like most places have moved the over/under to 56.5.

SOOPOO, will you bet the over 56.5 against me at even money? Let's go double or nothing on the Olympics bet?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TomG
TomG
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January 25th, 2021 at 6:51:20 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I enjoyed your post quite a bit Tom, predicting what you yourself will do
knowing you a little bit I'm sure you were predicting based on where you think you will find the best bets
correct?



I only bet in Las Vegas, and based look ahead lines and opening lines, it seems that they will shade their numbers toward Kansas City. Which means I will bet Tampa.

I have a premonition that KC wins and covers. I like to say that I don't let that effect my bets too much, yet sometimes I do find myself betting slightly different than the numbers would indicate.

Sagarin says it should be KC -2: http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm
Can't really use those powerratings for anything more than a curiosity. I do like seeing the Wiz's simple model comes close to Sagarin's advanced, super-computer formula. Main difference is Sagarin uses strength of schedule and gives less value to blowout wins.

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