Poll

5 votes (26.31%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7491
January 25th, 2021 at 7:14:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The line on KC has shifted to -3 -120/-125.

Looks like most places have moved the over/under to 56.5.

SOOPOO, will you bet the over 56.5 against me at even money? Let's go double or nothing on the Olympics bet?



Sure. But only if you remind me what we bet on the Olympics!
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 177
  • Posts: 10080
January 25th, 2021 at 8:56:05 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

At 3.5 I love KC. It just seems like their offense is 'different' than all the other teams in the league. KC 38 TB 27 So KC and over. My bets on things like this tend to be correct 49% of the time or so.

I will say this. I had one 'super best bet' yesterday, and it was on Josh Allen rushing over (LOL... I can't remember the number, but I think it was 42.5?) and he had 80 or so.



I thought about that every time he took off. I'd have guessed he was closer to 100.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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January 25th, 2021 at 9:00:12 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Sure. But only if you remind me what we bet on the Olympics!



You bet the 2020 Olympics would be postponed. I believe I owe you $25.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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  • Posts: 7491
January 25th, 2021 at 9:27:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You bet the 2020 Olympics would be postponed. I believe I owe you $25.



Great! I do remember now. Over 56.5 you owe me $50. Under 56.5 we are all square. After the Super Bowl KEWLJ will owe me something. And DRich already owes me something! I need the vaccine so I can come out to Vegas to collect my winnings!
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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January 25th, 2021 at 9:32:38 AM permalink
For games like the SB, I like to add a bonus where the winner gets paid $100 for each point over the spread. This keeps the game interesting until the end even if itís a blowout

For example, letís say I bet (with my friend) $1,000 on Tampa +3 and they win 28 - 24. That would mean I win $1000 plus $700 since they covered by 7.

Is the bonus fair or am I at a disadvantage since Tampa is predicted to score less points?
Itís all about making that GTA
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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  • Posts: 2178
January 25th, 2021 at 1:54:00 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

For games like the SB, I like to add a bonus where the winner gets paid $100 for each point over the spread. This keeps the game interesting until the end even if itís a blowout

For example, letís say I bet (with my friend) $1,000 on Tampa +3 and they win 28 - 24. That would mean I win $1000 plus $700 since they covered by 7.

Is the bonus fair or am I at a disadvantage since Tampa is predicted to score less points?



Great question. Hope the Wiz weighs in. Iíve always envisioned the scoring distribution as some bell curve centered on the spread number with a variance that fits somewhere between the pleaser and teaser house edge. But Iíve never looked at the data.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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January 25th, 2021 at 2:12:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

After the Super Bowl KEWLJ will owe me something.



Yeah, it is not looking good for my No superbowl prediction. I am willing to concede. How do I go about paying?
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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  • Posts: 6996
January 25th, 2021 at 2:48:51 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Great! I do remember now. Over 56.5 you owe me $50. Under 56.5 we are all square. After the Super Bowl KEWLJ will owe me something. And DRich already owes me something! I need the vaccine so I can come out to Vegas to collect my winnings!



I believe that I owe you $20 but I have no idea what the bet was. Seeing as I am poor and unemployed we may have to work out a payment plan :) 🙂
Living longer does not always infer +EV
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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  • Posts: 12288
January 26th, 2021 at 9:38:15 AM permalink
Congrats to Wiz on his presumptive consulting job with Volvo marketing!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7491
January 26th, 2021 at 11:08:14 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Yeah, it is not looking good for my No superbowl prediction. I am willing to concede. How do I go about paying?



I hope you can hand me the $$ when I come to Vegas. I kind of like the idea of lunch with you, DRich and the Wiz with all 3 of you paying up simultaneously! If speedycrap is in town that could be 4 collections!

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