College Football Picks 2019
If you think they are winning by 14 then your 7.5 is a steal, why are you wasting money on the .5? I understand the 7 and all but if you think they are so off on the line it seems pointless to move it
On this small a wager I'm not overly worried. I haven't put an eye test on both teams other than what I hear in practice reports, or what I've seen on game film for spring/fall games. I like Florida a lot in this game.Quote: DRichWow, do you think paying 25 cents juice to buy onto the 7 is cost justifiable? I can only see paying that on or off of the 3 in NFL.
Quote: GWAEYou should not post the barcode. People can steal your ticket
If you think they are winning by 14 then your 7.5 is a steal, why are you wasting money on the .5? I understand the 7 and all but if you think they are so off on the line it seems pointless to move it
I edited the post to remove the barcode. Thanks, I appreciate it. I didn't think about that. I think the final margin will be around 10/11 in favor of Florida but first game of the season and I wasn't overly worried about the value on the buy for this small a wager. I just want to get off to a positive start.
Quote: JoelDezeI edited the post to remove the barcode. Thanks, I appreciate it. I didn't think about that. I think the final margin will be around 10/11 in favor of Florida but first game of the season and I wasn't overly worried about the value on the buy for this small a wager. I just want to get off to a positive start.
I see Florida at -7 -115 right now. Think you ill timed your bet. Will he interested to see how you do as the season progresses. Good luck and thanks for this thread!
I live East of the Mississippi. I will gladly show my generosity and appreciation after I win for the person who made it possible.
Quote: unJonI see Florida at -7 -115 right now. Think you ill timed your bet. Will he interested to see how you do as the season progresses. Good luck and thanks for this thread!
William Hill is still at 7.5. Unfortunately I’m stuck with those lines at Twin River. They use them.
Quote: DRichWow, do you think paying 25 cents juice to buy onto the 7 is cost justifiable? I can only see paying that on or off of the 3 in NFL.
Hahahaha. This is incredible. Buying 1/2 points in college football?
We gotta book this dude's action.
Quote: unJonI see Florida at -7 -115 right now. Think you ill timed your bet. Will he interested to see how you do as the season progresses. Good luck and thanks for this thread!
In PA I have it at -7 for -121
Quote: SM777Hahahaha. This is incredible. Buying 1/2 points in college football?
We gotta book this dude's action.
Who is "we"? You actually think anyone remotely intelligent is in your corner? You suddenly feel like you have an entourage around you? Are you having flights of fancy and seeing alien spaceships? Do you honestly believe that no one ever buys a 1/2 point in college football? Anything else you want to tell us that you believe in? Tooth Fairy? Santa Claus?
You will always be "all talk" and "no action". Want action? Put your money where your mouth is. Post your wagers alongside mine and post the images too. Here, I'll help you with your response to this statement: ** crickets **
Quote: JoelDezeWho is "we"? You actually think anyone remotely intelligent is in your corner? You suddenly feel like you have an entourage around you? Are you having flights of fancy and seeing alien spaceships? Do you honestly believe that no one ever buys a 1/2 point in college football? Anything else you want to tell us that you believe in? Tooth Fairy? Santa Claus?
You will always be "all talk" and "no action". Want action? Put your money where your mouth is. Post your wagers alongside mine and post the images too. Here, I'll help you with your response to this statement: ** crickets **
Nice response Joel, but why waste the energy. Ignore the dopes and block them. If they want to follow you they can't,
That sounds like a personal insult to me.Quote: GeppiNice response Joel, but why waste the energy. Ignore the dopes and block them. If they want to follow you they can't,
SM777 wasn't implying he was good at college football, he was just implying you were bad.Quote: JoelDezeWho is "we"? You actually think anyone remotely intelligent is in your corner? You suddenly feel like you have an entourage around you? Are you having flights of fancy and seeing alien spaceships? Do you honestly believe that no one ever buys a 1/2 point in college football? Anything else you want to tell us that you believe in? Tooth Fairy? Santa Claus?
You will always be "all talk" and "no action". Want action? Put your money where your mouth is. Post your wagers alongside mine and post the images too. Here, I'll help you with your response to this statement: ** crickets **
Let me ask you a question, will your unit size remain the same the whole season?
Quote: AxelWolf
Let me ask you a question, will your unit size remain the same the whole season?
I’ve already answered that in a few posts including my wagers post. And, I went ahead and blocked him.
Quote: SM777Hahahaha. This is incredible. Buying 1/2 points in college football?
We gotta book this dude's action.
I do think it is a very poor decision that the math would never back up.
Some people would rather get the worst of the EV just to say they won the game. They would rather brag of their record because that is all most people will look at. The smart people will be looking at the amount wagered vs the amount won. BTW, I am not accusing Joel of being this person, that is just how some touts do it.
Quote: DRichI do think it is a very poor decision that the math would never back up.
Some people would rather get the worst of the EV just to say they won the game. They would rather brag of their record because that is all most people will look at. The smart people will be looking at the amount wagered vs the amount won. BTW, I am not accusing Joel of being this person, that is just how some touts do it.
What I have not done, and I'll admit I may be a bit weak in this aspect, is calculate the ROI on buying points in various scenarios over a 10-year period for college football. I would want to dive deeper into this type of scenario though, and have added it to my todo:
Scenario:
P5 conf vs. P5 conf. opponent (10-year span) -7.5 (no buys) | ROI Data and then have the buy examples placed. I don't just want it for all of college football. I'd want to see G5 vs P5, G5 vs G5, P5 vs P5 - home/neutral/away etc. I've started the calculations of ATS in all scenarios but I don't have the ROI tracking in place yet.
Wow that would make a fun middle to root for. I grew up calling middles a Jake. Anyone else do that? Like: I jaked the Steelers at -2.5 and +4.Quote: DRichI can not find any Miami +7.5 right now but I will look again tomorrow. I also really like the game under but if I bet it now my friends will disown me because the total has already moved down from 52.5 to 46.
Lost the ATS.
Original Capital: $1,000
Loss: $200
New Capital: $800
Week 1 CAR: $160 max play.
Will post week 1 late in the week.
And no human being or program can predict that.Quote: JoelDezeFlorida wins 24-20. Tough crazy game. A lot of mistakes by both teams, a lot of turnovers by Florida. A lot of penalties by Miami.
Line shopping is an important aspect of betting.
Quote: AxelWolf..............................And no human being or program can predict that.
Line shopping is an important aspect of betting.
yes, but there are some wrong ideas out there about line shopping
i.e. - a player sees all the books offering -7 on the fave - but one is offering -6.5 - and he thinks he got a great deal
except, the strong handicapper who has a much stronger edge than the line shopper may realize that the best deal is +7 on the dog
he's much better off not taking the deal on the fave
no human being or program can predict it for sure at any given time - but a few talented ones can make the right call on a traditional ATS bet paying 10/11 55% of the time or slightly more - often enough to make a profit
money line was around -300, so it was expectedQuote: JoelDezeFlorida wins 24-20.
only if watched but most should not care. 1st game of season at neutral site.Quote: JoelDezeTough crazy game.
Florida does not beat Miami that often (in the past)
no one really cares except the coaches.Quote: JoelDezeA lot of mistakes by both teams, a lot of turnovers by Florida. A lot of penalties by Miami. Both defenses played well.
the only thing that mattersQuote: JoelDezeLost the ATS.
The Arizona/Hawaii was a better bet on the over. I missed that one
Quote: GWAEIs there a site that shows all of the opening and closing spreads/ml for previous years?
covers.com - you have to toggle thru and find the team, the season, the results, then the game, then the line history
for sports where spread betting is predominant it won't show you the moneylines
Quote: DRichI do think it is a very poor decision that the math would never back up.
Some people would rather get the worst of the EV just to say they won the game. They would rather brag of their record because that is all most people will look at. The smart people will be looking at the amount wagered vs the amount won. BTW, I am not accusing Joel of being this person, that is just how some touts do it.
True.
Joel, I'm not saying this antagonistically, but you fundamentally misunderstand sportsbetting if you don't think these things matter. Not only do they matter, they are the name of the game.
Sports is just another form of gambling. You are trying to get your payout to exceed the true odds by a few % points. When you are giving up % because your local book has a bad line and you just say "eff it," or because you buy points you shouldn't, you are eliminating whatever edge you might have.
If there is a roulette wheel that is biased that is a good bet. If they fix the wheel and you keep betting that is a bad bet. It's the same in sports. It might SEEM different because there are a bunch of people playing instead of a ball bouncing around randomly. But what you are really betting on is "if these teams played a million times, what would the average result be." Just as with roulette.
You should read "Sharper" by my friend, Poker Joe. I've heard Ed Miller's recent book is good too. If you actually are skilled in things like player evaluation, this will allow you to apply those skills properly.
Quote: JoelDezeWho is "we"? You actually think anyone remotely intelligent is in your corner? You suddenly feel like you have an entourage around you? Are you having flights of fancy and seeing alien spaceships? Do you honestly believe that no one ever buys a 1/2 point in college football? Anything else you want to tell us that you believe in? Tooth Fairy? Santa Claus?
You will always be "all talk" and "no action". Want action? Put your money where your mouth is. Post your wagers alongside mine and post the images too. Here, I'll help you with your response to this statement: ** crickets **
I think what you're missing is that I am not touting myself as a college football expert, like yourself. More than likely if I posted picks for a college football season, I'd lose. Hence why I don't bet the sport. I don't come on here touting myself as the next Jesus and get crushed and buy points.
I can assure you buying points in college football has a negative ROI, and I will absolutely book any action you want. I'll charge you less than William Hill to buy points. Find a way, let's make it happen. I'm open for business.
Funny story, the first book I worked at in Vegas, we reprinted a few tickets of large wagers on college football that had bought points to laugh at. This is a true story. The worst gamblers of the worst are buying points in college football. It's a ritual every season in the back of books to reprint the tickets for the worst wagers of the season, and buying a half point for 25c in college football would qualify. Don't know if the tradition exists in Rhode Island.
Quote: lilredroostercovers.com - you have to toggle thru and find the team, the season, the results, then the game, then the line history
for sports where spread betting is predominant it won't show you the moneylines
is there anywhere that shows ML?
I woke up early and turned "College Gameday" on at 6am. Watched that for three hours. I had an hour or two to do my chores and stimulate the wife. I then watched every play of "Youngstown St vs Samford", "Miami vs Florida", & "Arizona vs Hawaii". It was was about 11:30[m when Arizona down by 7 points runs the ball to the one yard line as time expires.
What a day of football. We had friends at the house for a BBQ and swimming and I barely spoke to anyone. I am not going to waste my day socializing when there is football to be watched. Fortunately my wife is a trooper and did the entertaining.
I'm leaning on FIU to beat Tulane at the moment. Right now they are +2 ATS and I know I said ATS is all I would do this year, but the +ML is the better value. FIU returns many of their offensive and defensive starters and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57. I just can't play the totals this year.
So, for purposes of wagering (and looking at the rules I posted in the first thread), can I still take the better value at +ML on dog picks if I feel they are going to win? Before I place any wager, I'll let a few of you chime in on the interpretations.
Maybe I should have said on vegas oddsmaker favorites, I have to pick an -ATS. But on Vegas oddsmaker underdogs, I have a choice of +ML or +ATS. Does that seem fair?
if that's the case, shouldn't you bet everything you own(And even things you don't) on it?Quote: JoelDezeThe total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57.
Quote: AxelWolfif that's the case, shouldn't you bet everything you own(And even things you don't) on it?
I’m simply stating I have confidence that the totals are set incorrectly for this game. My risk appetite on any wager is measured. I won’t ever change that.
Quote: JoelDeze
So, for purposes of wagering (and looking at the rules I posted in the first thread), can I still take the better value at +ML on dog picks if I feel they are going to win? Before I place any wager, I'll let a few of you chime in on the interpretations.
Maybe I should have said on vegas oddsmaker favorites, I have to pick an -ATS. But on Vegas oddsmaker underdogs, I have a choice of +ML or +ATS. Does that seem fair?
I think you should stick with ATS picks. ML wagers are a different breed of cat and you will confuse people with your results. It is fine IMHO to suggest ML picks but please consider not putting them in your results summary.
Quote: JoelDezeBecause the games are spread out across Thursday, Friday, Sat, Sun, and Monday for Week 1, I've been heavily researching the Thursday night games.
I'm leaning on FIU to beat Tulane at the moment. Right now they are +2 ATS and I know I said ATS is all I would do this year, but the +ML is the better value. FIU returns many of their offensive and defensive starters and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57. I just can't play the totals this year.
So, for purposes of wagering (and looking at the rules I posted in the first thread), can I still take the better value at +ML on dog picks if I feel they are going to win? Before I place any wager, I'll let a few of you chime in on the interpretations.
Maybe I should have said on vegas oddsmaker favorites, I have to pick an -ATS. But on Vegas oddsmaker underdogs, I have a choice of +ML or +ATS. Does that seem fair?
Since you are buying points your win loss record is already meaningless, so picking money line bets does not change anything. So as long as you use a real line and post it in advance of the game there should be no problem.
You must see the problem with you saying "this game is definitely going over 57". You must know no game is definitely going over 57. Look deep inside your soul.... do you really think there is even a 70% chance the game is going over 57? I know nothing about those teams, the expected weather, the injuries, etc.... But if you gave me 2-1 I'd bet the under. On ANY real Vegas line. There may be inefficiencies in a line, and you may have found one, but please..... not 'definitely'.
Quote: SOOPOOSince you are buying points your win loss record is already meaningless, so picking money line bets does not change anything. So as long as you use a real line and post it in advance of the game there should be no problem.
You must see the problem with you saying "this game is definitely going over 57". You must know no game is definitely going over 57. Look deep inside your soul.... do you really think there is even a 70% chance the game is going over 57? I know nothing about those teams, the expected weather, the injuries, etc.... But if you gave me 2-1 I'd bet the under. On ANY real Vegas line. There may be inefficiencies in a line, and you may have found one, but please..... not 'definitely'.
Great post!!!
Quote: JoelDezeFIU returns many of their offensive and defensive starters and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57.
You can walk into just about any Vegas sportsbook and they’ll gladly take upwards of $50k on that over 57
just make your picks and 86 the commentary - there are dozens of different reasons a person could bet one way or another - anything you post can easily be countered or ridiculed
if you end up winning (by a large margin - i.e. R.O.I - 12% - based on betting equal amounts) you'll have the last laugh - if you don't - 2020 isn't that far away
also: your CAR (Capital at Risk) thing is not in any way helpful to anybody
the only important thing is whether or not you have an edge - every bet should be an equal amount or 1 unit -
then at the end - if you're up - maybe you're good enough to have an edge - or maybe you just got lucky
if you're down - maybe you're not good enough to have an edge - or maybe you were just unlucky
that's the way the cookie crumbles
your CAR (Capital at Risk) thing................................................... that dog won't hunt
Thanks again.
Quote: JoelDezeBecause the games are spread out across Thursday, Friday, Sat, Sun, and Monday for Week 1, I've been heavily researching the Thursday night games.
I'm leaning on FIU to beat Tulane at the moment. Right now they are +2 ATS and I know I said ATS is all I would do this year, but the +ML is the better value. FIU returns many of their offensive and defensive starters and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57. I just can't play the totals this year.
So, for purposes of wagering (and looking at the rules I posted in the first thread), can I still take the better value at +ML on dog picks if I feel they are going to win? Before I place any wager, I'll let a few of you chime in on the interpretations.
Maybe I should have said on vegas oddsmaker favorites, I have to pick an -ATS. But on Vegas oddsmaker underdogs, I have a choice of +ML or +ATS. Does that seem fair?
I actually have an open mind about your advice and picks and will judge you based on your performance.
But I must say that most of your analysis such as "FIU returns many of their offensive and defensive starters and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games." is the kind of analysis I see on many sports betting sites. This doesn't seem to amount to profound insights that include info that isn't already worked into the line on games. Just saying . . . .
Quote: lilredroosterjust make your picks and 86 the commentary - there are dozens of different reasons a person could bet one way or another - anything you post can easily be countered or ridiculed
While I don't mind the commentary, the counter arguments can get tiresome, even if they are 100% right.
I look forward to your week one picks.
Utah -5.5 ats
FIU +125 ml
FIU/CIN OV 57.5
UCLA +115 ml
Quote: IndyJeffreyI thought your CAR was only $160 this week, no?
It turned from that into.. Lose one bet and let half the bankroll ride the next week.. in a hurry
Quote: IndyJeffreyI thought your CAR was only $160 this week, no?
That is what I thought too. Maybe he meant $160 per game which is crazy with that small of a bankroll. My theory is a max of 5% of the bankroll per game (and that should be very rare. Most bets should not exceed 2% of the bankroll).
Quote: DRichThat is what I thought too. Maybe he meant $160 per game which is crazy with that small of a bankroll. My theory is a max of 5% of the bankroll per game (and that should be very rare. Most bets should not exceed 2% of the bankroll).
Should’ve let that entire remaining $800 ride on the FIU over 57
Quote: michael99000Should’ve let that entire remaining $800 ride on the FIU over 57
If I ever found a sure thing I would bet my whole net worth.
Quote: DRichUCLA +135 is now available in Vegas. Sorry, you got a bad number. Your number on Utah -5.5 is good as the best I am seeing now is -6 at one shop and -6.5 at most places.
PA I have Utah at +7, seems like a good middle there.
