JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
• Posts: 467
Thanks for this post from:
August 7th, 2019 at 7:59:08 PM permalink
This season I'll be projecting again on a week by week basis. I'm only going to project 1-5 games each week. I'll be picking a few match-ups for the week 0-1 slate, skipping weeks 2 and 3 (since I don't wager on those weeks) and starting again from week 4. My goal this season is to hopefully help anyone that wants to begin with a starting capital model of \$1k for college football and build from that starting point.

The goal for CAR (capital at risk) each week will be:

WEEK CAR %
0 , 1, 4 20%
5 25%
6 30%
7, 8 40%
9, 10 50%
11, 12, 13, 14, 15 60%
Bowlseason 70%

This assumes that new capital and CAR will be recalculated each week (regardless of win or loss amounts). If you start with \$1k and wager 20% on week 0 and win, your capital will be \$1k + winnings for the next week. Week 1 CAR would then be 20% of the new capital. All picks will be ATS picks only. No ML or Totals. Point buys will either be none, +/- 0.5 or +/- 1.0. There will be no buys greater than 1 point.

The goal is to produce positive ROI each week. Theoretically, with no buys and a perfect record (just an example), \$1k would become \$140,343. But, I'm not pretentious and will assume that a majority of weeks may see an ROI of -5% to +25%. If I present 4 games and go 2-2 (50%) if the majority of money is on the 2 winners, a positive ROI will be achieved. So, I'm not overly concerned about wins or losses, although I'd like to shoot for 60% on ATS win probability. I will not be flat betting amounts on games.

To save time, much of my betting will be done in Twin River (Lincoln, RI) . I will post ticket images of all games I list. If I list a game, that means I placed a wager on the game. I will do my best to have the image posted within the same day. It doesn't matter all that much as the amount I list will match the ticket when posted. There will be a full accounting after each week. If Twin River refuses wagers or limits wagers, I can change venues to several other areas close by. Week 9 and greater, I may have to go to AC or Vegas to handle any large amounts. If so, capital and CAR will have to include and account for any weekly expenses. In this case, new capital calculations may take a format similar to a Combined Ratio.

No websites, contact info, advertisements or links to data will be provided. Everything is as is. If, at any time, you find a flaw in the CAR/ROI strategy, I'll listen to any advice provided. I do not want to get into arguments with anyone. If you agree and like what I'm doing, great. If you don't, ignore the thread and move on with your day to day.

I want this year to be serious but also fun.

All games will be consolidated and posted in this thread.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 8121
August 7th, 2019 at 8:16:21 PM permalink
Will you actually be betting the posted picks and show confirmations of the line you received and the amount bet?
Order from chaos
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
• Posts: 467
August 8th, 2019 at 3:11:19 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Will you actually be betting the posted picks and show confirmations of the line you received and the amount bet?

Yes.

And all up/down capital calculations for future weeks will be handled from those betting tickets/images.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 12064
August 8th, 2019 at 9:17:24 AM permalink
You have piqued my interest.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
• Posts: 3010
August 8th, 2019 at 9:40:09 AM permalink
Sounds like fun. I’m in favor of this thread.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
• Posts: 762
August 8th, 2019 at 9:51:12 AM permalink
Joel,

Any updates on what you're looking to charge WOV forum members for your package? Do we get a discount?
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 8121
August 8th, 2019 at 9:53:35 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Sounds like fun. I’m in favor of this thread.

I like the idea as long as the poster doesn't start talking about his wins based on other systems that aren't part of this.

The first time he says something along the lines of "My other picks went 5 and 1 this week and my record is now x-y" he then loses all respect and should be suspended.
Order from chaos
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 20042
Thanks for this post from:
August 8th, 2019 at 12:26:48 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

You have piqued my interest.

then I think you need to go back and look at his entire history here.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
• Posts: 762
August 8th, 2019 at 12:29:50 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

The first time he says something along the lines of "My other picks went 5 and 1 this week and my record is now x-y" he then loses all respect and should be suspended.

The first time? You mean the next time.

Poster has been proven as a fraud looking to sell here.
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010