College Football Picks 2019

I don't mind anyone posting picks if it is clear they are done with pointspreads that are attainable in real life, and are posted concurrently when those pointspreads are available.

The Wiz himself has shown the ability to approach 60% when he is allowed to use 'stale' lines, which of course no real bookmaker would permit.

If it behooves you, Joel, I am interested in the 'why' you select a certain team. An example like.... "When Florida teams play in any state bordering Canada they only beat the spread 30% of the time, so I am taking Minnesota over Florida this Saturday". Or..... teams that lost the national championship game the previous year are 12-2 if they open on the road, so I'm taking Georgia over Tennessee...."

Quote: SOOPOO

If it behooves you, Joel, I am interested in the 'why' you select a certain team. An example like.... "When Florida teams play in any state bordering Canada they only beat the spread 30% of the time, so I am taking Minnesota over Florida this Saturday". Or..... teams that lost the national championship game the previous year are 12-2 if they open on the road, so I'm taking Georgia over Tennessee...."

It would take a very large article to go over this in detail. I can try to provide a short summary but I tend to be long-winded. I use the following algorithms:

• 
  TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength is an algorithm I built back in 2007/2008). I determined that if I wanted to create a process that could be utilized across all stats, it would be easier to convert those raw stats into floating point values. I wrote a formula to handle stat inflation / deflation based on the competition value for the opposition category. If you have a strong passing offense but you faced many weak passing defenses, the overall strength rating will lower. Likewise, if you faced strong passing defenses, the overall strength rating will increase. The conversions can be used similar to a transforms table without affecting the actual statistics. I use standard deviation, covariance and correlation. Last year, before bowl season, the top 5 teams in TSRS for College were: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Ohio State, 4) Texas A&M and 5) LSU. Alabama and Clemson had quite a bit of separation from other teams. The goal of this algorithm was to determine the strongest statistical teams on paper.
  
• 
  H2H (Head to Head Scoring Algorithm) is used to determine percentage of scoring for each team based on all positive scoring indicators, which are then mitigated by indicators that reduce scoring. Instead of saying a team has a 53% chance of winning versus 47%, this algorithm will show that a team "should" have 53% of all scoring in the game versus 47% for the opponent. I can then do a few things when doing historical regression research. I can measure the overall win/loss probability and I can measure the same win/loss probability for each percentage bracket. This allows me to determine what % scoring bracket offers the best probability.
  
• 
  Riskmark (measures how much risk is in H2H) was built to identify any issues with the H2H scoring algorithm. I wanted to know how likely it was for the scoring percentage to be wrong. I can also measure this algorithm on win/loss probability over time. For instance, the probability curve is high on the win side when the Riskmark shows 19% or less.
  
• 
  I use TSRSD (strength diffs between teams), Pass efficiency rating difference, Rush efficiency rating difference, scoring difference and a lot of other comparison factors.
  
• 
  Historical Comparisons can be made so that I can find any games where Team A and Team B closely resemble the teams in a previously played game. I can then determine outcomes based on similarities.
  
• 
  I've built true homefield advantage charts that take into account stadium capacity, avg. attendance, noise levels, win probabilities, turf type and other environmental factors.
  
• 
  Recently, over the last two years, I started measuring ATS for every type of outcome in college football. Examples are home, away, neutral, vs. Power 5, vs. Group of 5, favored, underdog, etc. I also calculate the average (per scenario) for how many points over or under a cover in that scenario. As an example, the #1 team in college for ATS in 2018 was FIU. The #2 team was Army. #3 was Iowa. #4 was Syracuse. #5 was UCF.
  

Other than above, I dive into player personnel and match-ups, especially on the line and in the trenches. I look at player injuries, coaching tendencies , penalties, time of possession, turnover margin and line movements.

One of my biggest problems was trying to research too many games. It's actually more efficient to research games/teams I've watched throughout the season and concentrate on 5 or less games, rather than trying to focus on 20 for the week. That's my goal this year.

I'm always trying to improve upon research.

Okay, so you're a big-time analytics geek. But how do you pick a game like Miami/Florida in the first week of the season when there are so many players starting for the first time?

Quote: gordonm888

Okay, so you're a big-time analytics geek. But how do you pick a game like Miami/Florida in the first week of the season when there are so many players starting for the first time?

More importantly, how can you know there will be an advantage against the lines at some point in the future?

Quote: gordonm888

Okay, so you're a big-time analytics geek. But how do you pick a game like Miami/Florida in the first week of the season when there are so many players starting for the first time?

I look at the returning starters for each team and the playing time of reserves from the previous year. Miami for instance will be starting a QB that was third on the depth chart and a freshman. They are sitting Perry and Tate. Williams has only played in one game as a redshirt last year and he went 1 for 3. So, he’s essentially a freshman QB behind an inexperienced line going against a Grantham run defense that will blitz and send one extra man on every single play. His head will be on a swivel the whole game. I’ll go into it a bit next week.

Quote: Rigondeaux

More importantly, how can you know there will be an advantage against the lines at some point in the future?

One example is when I forecast Team A to beat Team B and the Vegas oddsmakers have Team B as a 17 point favorite. I will be betting on Team A.

I’m not going to go much deeper than that. There are too many instances.

Lines are influenced by sharp action, bettor profiles, vig and action taken by the bookmaker just to name a few. It’s not infallible if you know what you are looking for.

Quote: JoelDeze

One example is when I forecast Team A to beat Team B and the Vegas oddsmakers have Team B as a 17 point favorite. I will be betting on Team A.

Has that situation ever actually occurred, or is that a silly hypothetical? Has there ever been a 17 point underdog that you thought had a better than even chance to win? That seems unbelievable, meaning NOT believable!

Others may chime in with an accurate percentage, but I'd guess 17 point dogs maybe win 7-13% of the time?

Quote: SOOPOO

Has that situation ever actually occurred, or is that a silly hypothetical? Has there ever been a 17 point underdog that you thought had a better than even chance to win? That seems unbelievable, meaning NOT believable!

Others may chime in with an accurate percentage, but I'd guess 17 point dogs maybe win 7-13% of the time?

Yes. My forecast had LA Monroe bearing Arkansas in 2012 and I believe they over hyped them, ranking them #8 at the time. I knew it was wrong. Arkansas was favored by 21 and lost.

Quote: JoelDeze

Yes. My forecast had LA Monroe bearing Arkansas in 2012 and I believe they over hyped them, ranking them #8 at the time. I knew it was wrong. Arkansas was favored by 21 and lost.

In a scenario like that will you be betting them on the money line as opposed to the point spread?

Quote: DRich

In a scenario like that will you be betting them on the money line as opposed to the point spread?

No, ATS only in that scenario.

Quote: JoelDeze

I look at the returning starters for each team and the playing time of reserves from the previous year. Miami for instance will be starting a QB that was third on the depth chart and a freshman. They are sitting Perry and Tate. Williams has only played in one game as a redshirt last year and he went 1 for 3. So, he’s essentially a freshman QB behind an inexperienced line going against a Grantham run defense that will blitz and send one extra man on every single play. His head will be on a swivel the whole game. I’ll go into it a bit next week.

The line has already moved from Florida - 7 1/2 to -7. Money has spoken. Florida has been hurt by the off the field issues which you have not mentioned in your recent posts. Defensive backfield is depleted and my inside information(from Gainesville) says the black players are upset at the white coaches getting into their off field business. "whitee don't know how to handle black bitches..". There are a lot of issues in the Florida camp. It's not a "team" yet anyhow.

Quote: NokTang

The line has already moved from Florida - 7 1/2 to -7. Money has spoken.

money will move the line - sometimes it's sharp money and sometimes it's public money - it's not always easy to tell
if the line moves that early it's likely to be sharps

but the sharps are wrong lots of times -

you can track the the % of money bet on each side at thespread.com - if you believe their stats are accurate which I do for various reasons - at least approximately accurately

right now according to thespread.com Missouri has drawn 89% of the money bet and the line on Mizzou has moved from -14.5 to -17.5

that is likely to be sharp money

it would be wonderful if you could track the sharp money and get in early before they move the line - and that is in some cases possible

if only it was that easy to win - but it's not

again - the sharps are wrong lots of times - it's also very possible sharp whales are manipulating the lines to get what they see as an edge - betting big early to move the line and then betting much more later against the line movement - they do this more in college games

that was one of the strategies of the Billy Walters syndicate - I have no doubt there are others doing the same thing


https://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-public-betting-chart

There are a few things which color me skeptical, but I'm interested to see if this makes it to Bowl season.

If my math is correct he'll have between $146,332.63 and $0.07 after the season.

Any guesses on the actual total? Which week will be the final picks posted? How much of the bankroll will he end the season?

Quote: JoelDeze

Personal attacks, calling out vague snippets from 3 years ago, one of which was supposed to be humorous with the Han Solo reference. And, complete hijacking of a thread. Will anything be done about it? Probably not.

For someone that just mentioned that I’m not bothering him, Axel you seem fairly bothered.

Not a single game has been posted yet and it’s up to 5 or 6 pages now filled with character profiling, CSI and investigative work the likes of which Homer Simpson would be proud.

Just stop already. Enough is enough.

You tried to sell your "service" or picks here. Told us about bets that you didn't post but won (weird how that happens) as the picks you posted were getting crushed. You lied about not selling anything here.

Am I missing anything?

Quote: SM777

You tried to sell your "service" or picks here. Told us about bets that you didn't post but won (weird how that happens) as the picks you posted were getting crushed. You lied about not selling anything here.

Am I missing anything?

Most of the forum was aware, or is now aware, that he was guilty of everything you listed.

But Babs has asked earlier in this thread that he be given a chance to post his picks, and hopefully this time an accurate record. And not a record that includes unposted plays.

Sports bettors on this forum are a combined 742-0 on games they inform us afterwards that they bet on, but didn’t post.

Quote: michael99000

But Babs has asked earlier in this thread that he be given a chance to post his picks

Yeah, I guess it's nice if your picks tank one year you can just reset your record for the next year.

I'm always curious to as why if someone is such a great Sports better/system player why they wast their time posting about it and defending themselves? JUST GO DO IT. Yeah, yeah, I know, they want to give back and help the community and all that BS hogwash. It's as if they have no friends or family in order to give their great picks and systems to so they can go make boatloads of money. If you want to give back to the community just go make some big bets throughout the year win the money and donate it to the Forum and run some type of contest or something to give it away.

Quote: SM777

You tried to sell your "service" or picks here. Told us about bets that you didn't post but won (weird how that happens) as the picks you posted were getting crushed. You lied about not selling anything here.

Am I missing anything?

You are wrong as usual, and everyone knows that you post incorrect things most of the time. I have "never", not once, tried to "sell a service" on these forums in any topic thread. Show me "one" instance where I have done this. You won't find it and you won't post it because it doesn't exist. That's what really annoys you doesn't it and you bypass it every single time when asked.

I've said this in the past and others have said it too. You have been here about the same time as I have. You have 6 thread topics to your name. A majority of your post responses to others are in the form of Trolling, Berating, Instigating, Attacking and generally just being a disrupter. Why you haven't been banned yet is beyond understanding.

So, do yourself a big favor. Go through "every" post you ever written and ask yourself what percentage of your posts are a) friendly, b) helpful, c) on topic.

This is your kick in life. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Quote: AxelWolf

Yeah, I guess it's nice if your picks tank one year you can just reset your record for the next year.

I'm always curious to as why if someone is such a great Sports better/system player why they wast their time posting about it and defending themselves? JUST GO DO IT. Yeah, yeah, I know, they want to give back and help the community and all that BS hogwash. It's as if they have no friends or family in order to give their great picks and systems to so they can go make boatloads of money. If you want to give back to the community just go make some big bets throughout the year win the money and donate it to the Forum and run some type of contest or something to give it away.

I didn't come back the next year after 2017 and post picks. The person you are describing isn't me. I took the entire year off from doing any kind of wagering because while ML picks (with very little monetary value) were okay, the ATS picks were not. It needed to be corrected so I worked hard last year on the problem.

Why do I want to post here in 2019 on ATS picks? That's more or less the right question to ask. I'm competitive. If I fail at something, I want to correct it. I want to succeed. This has nothing to do with selling a service. It has everything to do with correcting something that was obviously broken. I would rather be known as the guy who tried and succeeded than the guy who tried and failed. But, who knows? Maybe that $1k bottoms out to zero. Only time will tell.

But, as for defending oneself? Wrong question. Wrong questions get wrong answers. Anyone, if attacked or when someone posts false information about them, will defend themselves. Take this very thread. The thread topic had parameters clearly set for when I begin and what I would be doing. It corrects every thing that you or anyone else could potentially complain about. I'd have "images" of the wagers before the game is played. What is so hard to understand about that? I'm only doing ATS, not ML or Totals. What is hard to understand about that? Instead of focusing on what the thread is about (which not a single game has been posted yet), SM777 has been attacking and taking it off topic. And, then you yourself have been sitting in his corner. Why in hell would you want to side with SM777? Do you really want to be lumped in with him?

So, again, read the first few posts in this thread and for the love of all programmers that ever created a forum software to post in, "PLEASE STAY ON FRIGGIN TOPIC!".

Thanks. :)

Quote: JoelDeze

You are wrong as usual, and everyone knows that you post incorrect things most of the time. I have "never", not once, tried to "sell a service" on these forums in any topic thread. Show me "one" instance where I have done this. You won't find it and you won't post it because it doesn't exist. That's what really annoys you doesn't it and you bypass it every single time when asked.

I've said this in the past and others have said it too. You have been here about the same time as I have. You have 6 thread topics to your name. A majority of your post responses to others are in the form of Trolling, Berating, Instigating, Attacking and generally just being a disrupter. Why you haven't been banned yet is beyond understanding.

So, do yourself a big favor. Go through "every" post you ever written and ask yourself what percentage of your posts are a) friendly, b) helpful, c) on topic.

This is your kick in life. Enjoy it while it lasts.

I can't link to others DM's, but you sent multiple people on this forum a free rate, and an option to continue your service if they pay. I wasn't one of them because I called out your scam from the beginning. I suppose that multiple members of the site are lying about receiving this, but that seems unlikely a sports betting tout is telling the truth and multiple forum members put this plan together to corroborate a story about said sports betting are lying. Then, your picks failed miserably as expected, and you disappeared.

You also posted multiple times about picks you didn't post won, all while the picks you actually posted got absolutely crushed. These are facts.

Why haven't I been banned? What about someone who attempted to sell here, or lie about picks in attempt boost a record, again with the goal to sell here? Why hasn't that person been banned?

You talk a big game about sports betting. Failed miserably at posted picks, didn't sell anything, disappeared due to failed picks, returned to attempt to sell again, and I am the bad guy?

Quote: SM777

Why haven't I been banned? What about someone who attempted to sell here, or lie about picks in attempt boost a record, again with the goal to sell here? Why hasn't that person been banned?

You talk a big game about sports betting. Failed miserably at posted picks, didn't sell anything, disappeared due to failed picks, returned to attempt to sell again, and I am the bad guy?

Again, show me one "post" or "thread" where I attempted to "sell a service". The fact is you don't have one and you keep posting false information about that. Saying a falsehood about a person should be a bannable offense.

Then in your second paragraph you said it again. You just said I returned to "attempt to sell again" which is also a false statement.

How many false statements can a person say about another member before they get banned?

Lastly, I don't own or operate "any service" that requires a payment to use.

EDIT: I'm editing this so that SM will fully understand this if it doesn't sink in. I DO NOT SELL ANY SERVICE OR SERVICES RELATED TO SPORTS. Got it?

Quote: JoelDeze

Again, show me one "post" or "thread" where I attempted to "sell a service". The fact is you don't have one and you keep posting false information about that. Saying a falsehood about a person should be a bannable offense.

Then in your second paragraph you said it again. You just said I returned to "attempt to sell again" which is also a false statement.

How many false statements can a person say about another member before they get banned?

Lastly, I don't own or operate "any service" that requires a payment to use.

EDIT: I'm editing this so that SM will fully understand this if it doesn't sink in. I DO NOT SELL ANY SERVICE OR SERVICES RELATED TO SPORTS. Got it?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26556-clemson-auburn-week-1-pick/3/

On this thread alone:

Page 3:

"If I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks. I mentioned early on if anyone wanted a free preview to my picks (and I'm not posting the site due to forum rules), just PM me and I'll give you a free preview for the season."

Page 4:

"My picks are on my site well in advance of every game played. If you want to debate me properly then see for yourself. It's "free" for "you". Just PM me and I'll give you everything you need. Then, on week 2, when you see for yourself you can stop your ridiculous assumptions. You can use my site freely for the entire year. Hell, if you don't agree with me then simply go against every pick that's posted and all of the data that's showcased."


How do I post the screen shots?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26840-week-2-college-picks/

Page 1:

"First, I'm only going to be doing this for the first 4 weeks of college football and also for the first 4 weeks of the NFL. I will not be linking my website or services publicly during or after I'm finished. If anyone wants to see things afterwards you just need to "private message" me and I will setup a "free" account for the entire season. After using my site and services the rest is up to you. I made this promise when I first came to the board so I'm not going to back out now."

Quote: SM777

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26556-clemson-auburn-week-1-pick/3/

On this thread alone:

Page 3:

"If I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks. I mentioned early on if anyone wanted a free preview to my picks (and I'm not posting the site due to forum rules), just PM me and I'll give you a free preview for the season."

Page 4:

"My picks are on my site well in advance of every game played. If you want to debate me properly then see for yourself. It's "free" for "you". Just PM me and I'll give you everything you need. Then, on week 2, when you see for yourself you can stop your ridiculous assumptions. You can use my site freely for the entire year. Hell, if you don't agree with me then simply go against every pick that's posted and all of the data that's showcased."


How do I post the screen shots?

Joel, you don't sell picks though, right?

Quote: JoelDeze

How many false statements can a person say about another member before they get banned?

Why can't/won't you ignore these "false statements" and let your predictions speak for themselves?

Quote: SM777

Joel, you don't sell picks though, right?

Since you do not read well.

I DO NOT OWN OR SELL ANY SPORTS SERVICES.

And, again, show me "one" post where I previously linked or provided a service for sell on this forum. None of what you posted says anything other than I previously owned and operated a sports service and that I "purposely" honored the forum rules by not posting any link or selling a service through a link. You are basically showing that I honored the forum terms of services.

But, once again, I do not own or sell any sports services. If you find my site, you'll see that. Will I post a link to that site? No, it's against the forum's terms of services. Do I care to tout that website? No. Do I want people to visit that website? No. Going forward, if someone asks me for a link to that website would I provide it? No.

As to your other argument, the one I have bypassed? I didn't disagree with you. Previously I posted wins and losses for games I could not prove. And, I stopped doing that. So, to add to this argument... Will I post anything that I do not wager myself? No. Will I post images of those wagers? Yes. Will I post them "before" the game is played? Yes.

Given everything I just said, do you know how to read now? Does this satisfy your contractual meandering philosophies on sports etiquette?

Quote: IndyJeffrey

Why can't/won't you ignore these "false statements" and let your predictions speak for themselves?

I will post those starting 8/22 but in the meantime, after reading 7 of these pages, do you really feel the need to ask that particular question?

Quote: JoelDeze

Since you do not read well.

I DO NOT OWN OR SELL ANY SPORTS SERVICES.

And, again, show me "one" post where I previously linked or provided a service for sell on this forum. None of what you posted says anything other than I previously owned and operated a sports service and that I "purposely" honored the forum rules by not posting any link or selling a service through a link. You are basically showing that I honored the forum terms of services.

But, once again, I do not own or sell any sports services. If you find my site, you'll see that. Will I post a link to that site? No, it's against the forum's terms of services. Do I care to tout that website? No. Do I want people to visit that website? No. Going forward, if someone asks me for a link to that website would I provide it? No.

As to your other argument, the one I have bypassed? I didn't disagree with you. Previously I posted wins and losses for games I could not prove. And, I stopped doing that. So, to add to this argument... Will I post anything that I do not wager myself? No. Will I post images of those wagers? Yes. Will I post them "before" the game is played? Yes.

Given everything I just said, do you know how to read now? Does this satisfy your contractual meandering philosophies on sports etiquette?

do you or have you ever generated a profit from other people related to sports and gambling? Let's not get all funny and technical with the words you know what I'm asking.

Quote: AxelWolf

do you or have you ever generated a profit from other people related to sports and gambling? Let's not get all funny and technical with the words you know what I'm asking.

Wrong question. Wrong questions get wrong answers.

Quote: JoelDeze

Wrong question. Wrong questions get wrong answers.

What was wrong with that question? It seems like a simple yes or no question. Have you ever profited from other people related to sports and gambling?

Quote: DRich

What was wrong with that question?

You mean other than it being inappropriate to me and to the topic? This is the last time I'm responding to this type of discussion. I've put the ground rules down in the first few posts of the thread.

If anyone wants to discuss the following, I'm more than happy to offer discussion on it:

Asking me about posted picks or wagers is fine.
Asking me about CAR for each week is fine.
Asking me about how I approach researching a game is fine.
Asking me what stats or trends are most important are fine.
Rooting against me is fine.
Rooting for me is fine.

And what's not okay?

If any questions or statements regarding my life, family, finances, past, etc. come up, they won't be answered.

Good luck though! Enjoy the weekend DRich!

Quote: JoelDeze

You mean other than it being inappropriate to me and to the topic?

How is it inappropriate to the topic of sports betting? Have you profited off of others in sports betting?

Quote: JoelDeze

If any questions or statements regarding my life, family, finances, past, etc. come up, they won't be answered.

Said the guy who was constantly reporting how much money he was making via - EV gambling Voodoo systems.

When will you make your first selection?

Quote: SOOPOO

When will you make your first selection?

Thursday evening the 22nd. For week 0.

Quote: DRich

How is it inappropriate to the topic of sports betting? Have you profited off of others in sports betting?

No need for him to answer the question. This is from his site. it's a nice site with lots of tools that could be of value to sports bettors. It's no longer subscription based, now its free with an honor system that asks for donations.


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Quote: AxelWolf

No need for him to answer the question. This is from his site. it's a nice site with lots of tools that could be of value to sports bettors. It's no longer subscription based, now its free with an honor system that asks for donations.


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1.a. When you confirm a transaction on xxxxxxxxxxx Payment Agreement, you agree to be bound by and pay for that transaction.
1.b. Pay attention to the details of the transaction, and read any notes regarding the package details.
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Incredible

For anyone keeping score, and to answer Axel's question, Joel posted this on this very site:

"If I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks."

Quote: SM777

For anyone keeping score, and to answer Axel's question, Joel posted this on this very site:

"If I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks."

To make things more interesting, he raised a total of about five hundred bucks on a 10,000 goal via a Kickstarter fund. I can't 100% say for certain it was related to this particular project But perhaps it was something similar.

If I had to guess, he went to a 100% donation model because he didn't have enough paid membership or it didn't/ doesn't do well enough to warrant a paid subscription.

I have no clue how many sites are around that are similar to his, or how much is involved in setting something like that up I don't know what kind of stats is entered calculated and generated generated. Given mine limited knowledge his sight seems pretty impressive to me.

For a Recreational Sports better I have a feeling it could be fun, interesting and helpful.

Can his Website help a player gain a long-term advantage and beat Sports? Could his website add something to a professional sports Bettors tools that would significantly help? I don't have enough knowledge to determine that. My guess is probably not any more than what someone whose line shopping can do.

If someone had a sports modeling program, or whatever you want to call it that would gain them a long-term advantage it seems to me that they would be absolutely raping those Sports. I think you would have people beating down your door just to get in on the action.

I MAKE NO WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO ANY COMMENTS OR SPECULATIONS GIVEN ON, OR THROUGHOUT THIS THREAD. FURTHER MORE, I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE MILLIONS YOU MAY LOSE OUT ON BY NOT BETTING JoelDeze's PICKS OR USING HIS BETTING TOOLS.

The same holds true for Nathan's Lottery picks.
The same holds true for the millions you could save by ridding the bus while using DarkOz's bus ridding system.

Quote: AxelWolf

If I had to guess, he went to a 100% donation model because he didn't have enough paid membership or it didn't/ doesn't do well enough to warrant a paid subscription.

Kind of feel like you are stalking me but to set things straight, I felt it was unscrupulous to charge anyone after 2017. The website was created as a research based site, with tools to help people determine their own forecasting methodology and philosophies. The monies were very small, and meant to be small - just enough to pay for site expenses. The value from people that had joined was in the form of feedback and understanding what type of data they were interested in.

Quote: AxelWolf

I have no clue how many sites are around that are similar to his, or how much is involved in setting something like that up I don't know what kind of stats is entered calculated and generated generated. Given mine limited knowledge his sight seems pretty impressive to me.

For a Recreational Sports better I have a feeling it could be fun, interesting and helpful.

One of the issues I've had with people here, and yes I do get the whole tout perspective is I'm not a tout. I'm just a research guy - love combing stats and building data that could help with gaining some type of edge. Regardless of what the site has today, I still won't link it or provide links to it. I've always honored or tried to honor the forum terms of services, and I'll continue to do that in the future.

Quote: AxelWolf

Can his Website help a player gain a long-term advantage and beat Sports? Could his website add something to a professional sports Bettors tools that would significantly help? I don't have enough knowledge to determine that. My guess is probably not any more than what someone whose line shopping can do.

If someone had a sports modeling program, or whatever you want to call it that would gain them a long-term advantage it seems to me that they would be absolutely raping those Sports. I think you would have people beating down your door just to get in on the action.

My first steps into sports betting really had nothing to do with ATS at all. The original system was designed for ML predictions and taking advantage of line values somewhere in the range of +250 to -300. If the system favorite was a vegas underdog, I would bet the equivalent of a full unit on the ATS for the underdog and a 0.5 unit on the ML in favor of the underdog. If the system favorite was a vegas favorite, I would bet the ML only.

Eventually, people wanted an ATS model so I built one that just wasn't ready. I released it in 2017 and it went just over 43%, which is not going to win money for anyone. After that occurred, I said no more fees - I'd eat the site fees myself. So, in 2018 everything became free and it was still primarily a research based website with a test driven model for ATS. The system, with no influence from me hit just under 51%. Again, this won't win any money either. But, it saw some improvement. So, my goal this year is to get to 65%. It's lofty, and if I don't, so be it. I'm competitive as hell. I'd rather have tried and failed than not tried at all.

And, finally, no I won't be charging or selling any sports service subscriptions now or in the future in case I'm asked yet again. I believe with the optional donation model I had in place last year I was able to cover about 60% of site expenses for the year. That's all it's there for since I don't link or advertise on the site.

For purposes of this thread it's a competition for me to see what I can do with a $1k starting bankroll. If it hits $0 then I'm done with picking for the year. I'm not allowed to refresh the capital. It's $1k+ or bust.

First pick is 8/22 in the evening. I have to find a good image site to link the wager images. If anyone has info on a good image sharing site for forums, please let me know.

JoelDeze, I will be looking forward to see what you can do.

Being upfront honest and out in the open about this sort of thing is always the best policy.

I vaguely remember you saying something in the past about putting down upwards of $50,000 per game? Why be messing around with a measly $1,000 starting bankroll?

Quote: AxelWolf

JoelDeze, I will be looking forward to see what you can do.

Being upfront honest and out in the open about this sort of thing is always the best policy.

I vaguely remember you saying something in the past about putting down upwards of $50,000 per game? Why be messing around with a measly $1,000 starting bankroll?

That type of capital was funded by a 50/50 partner in Boston . We terminated that agreement after our first year in Vegas. There were a lot of difficulties. Too many expenses, too much foot traffic between books, each person that went had to be a percentage owner of the business we created for the venture due to messenger betting being illegal. Communication across state lines is also illegal so I couldn’t give them any advice once they went. At the end of that first year, we mutually terminated our contract. We only did ML wagers back then. No ATS or Totals.

1k is fine. It’s a reasonable starting amount if the risk percentage is honored. This first week is 20% CAR so $200 is the max I can wager. I can’t go over that. I could be $800 after this week or over $1,150. There’s a challenge in managing any amount of money. I like the challenge.

Joel, will you be using U.S. regulated casinos for your wagers or offshore sites? If using offshore sites, how will you distribute your $1,000 bankroll between the sites to make sure you have enough to wager at the site with the best line?

Quote: DRich

Joel, will you be using U.S. regulated casinos for your wagers or offshore sites? If using offshore sites, how will you distribute your $1,000 bankroll between the sites to make sure you have enough to wager at the site with the best line?

U.S regulated. I’ll be using Twin River in Lincoln, Ri.

Quote: JoelDeze

That type of capital was funded by a 50/50 partner in Boston . We terminated that agreement after our first year in Vegas. There were a lot of difficulties. Too many expenses, too much foot traffic between books, each person that went had to be a percentage owner of the business we created for the venture due to messenger betting being illegal. Communication across state lines is also illegal so I couldn’t give them any advice once they went. At the end of that first year, we mutually terminated our contract. We only did ML wagers back then. No ATS or Totals.

Now this sounds like an interesting story!!!! Please feel free to share more details of this if you can.

"That type of capital was funded by a 50/50 partner in Boston" As in, he/they put up the money and you added your expertise and what not?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As far as all the legal issues and expenses, it seems to me if one had a significant advantage and there was money to be made all those problems could be solved. So call me skeptical that's what made this partnership dissolve. If and when there's significant amounts of money to be made(especially regarding gambling)people will go to Extreme Measures in order to find a way to make it work. It's almost as if someone went out of their way to find reasons why you should not do it any longer.

And now with New Jersey open to mobile sports betting and lots of different option including Pennsylvania(add in all the bonuses and deals they offer and mobile betting in Nevada it seems like those problems can be solved. And can somebody tell me the last time they actually went after Sports runners?
And can somebody tell me that it's illegal to give information can someone in another state about what bets they should or shouldn't make? It seems to me that you're just not allowed to make Sports bets across state lines.

p.s. gambling podcast shows such as GWAE always seem to be looking for people who have a legit method of beating sports and other things. Perhaps you should reach out to some of those shows concerning your website.

Quote: AxelWolf

Now this sounds like an interesting story!!!! Please feel free to share more details of this if you can.

"That type of capital was funded by a 50/50 partner in Boston" As in, he/they put up the money and you added your expertise and what not?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As far as all the legal issues and expenses, it seems to me if one had a significant advantage and there was money to be made all those problems could be solved. So call me skeptical that's what made this partnership dissolve. If and when there's significant amounts of money to be made(especially regarding gambling)people will go to Extreme Measures in order to find a way to make it work. It's almost as if someone went out of their way to find reasons why you should not do it any longer.

And now with New Jersey open to mobile sports betting and lots of different option including Pennsylvania(add in all the bonuses and deals they offer and mobile betting in Nevada it seems like those problems can be solved. And can somebody tell me the last time they actually went after Sports runners?
And can somebody tell me that it's illegal to give information can someone in another state about what bets they should or shouldn't make? It seems to me that you're just not allowed to make Sports bets across state lines.

p.s. gambling podcast shows such as GWAE always seem to be looking for people who have a legit method of beating sports and other things. Perhaps you should reach out to some of those shows concerning your website.

I'd rather not go into all of the details but the main issue was namely that they were incurring up to 8k a week in expenses so we were essentially operating out of a hole each week. I'm solo now and will stay that way. Keep in mind we didn't have sports betting available back then locally.

What you are talking about regarding communication is called the Federal Wire Act. It states:

Quote:

Whoever being engaged in the business of betting or wagering knowingly uses a wire communication facility for the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of bets or wagers or information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on any sporting event or contest, or for the transmission of a wire communication which entitles the recipient to receive money or credit as a result of bets or wagers, or for information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.

And, if you want to know what wire communication facility refers to, it means:

Quote:

Pursuant to 18 USCS § 1081, [Title 18. Crimes and Criminal Procedure; Part I. Crimes; Chapter 50. Gambling] the term wire communication facility means “any and all instrumentalities, personnel, and services (among other things, the receipt, forwarding, or delivery of communications) used or useful in the transmission of writings, signs, pictures, and sounds of all kinds by aid of wire, cable, or other like connection between the points of origin and reception of such transmission.”

Good Luck and Happy Hunting Joel

Meanwhile...Florida is back up to - 7 1/2 vs. Miami Saturday night.

Quote: NokTang

Meanwhile...Florida is back up to - 7 1/2 vs. Miami Saturday night.

I can't wait. There are very few things in life that I really enjoy, but college football is one of them. I will be loading up my William Hill mobile account on Friday. Yes, I still use WH. Apparently I am one of the few people not good enough at picking games so WH hasn't banned me yet.

It is weird because I am going to be in Austin for Week 1 of the season so I won't be able to bet. I am worried that I might actually have physical withdrawal symptoms.

G/L this year

There's only two games on zero week, and only one that I'm interested in. Florida vs Miami on Saturday night.

Game of the Week

The Gators bring back 5 starters and a lot of depth from last year's team on offense. Feleipe Franks got into a groove to end the season last year, becoming a willing runner in Dan Mullen's offense. The 6'6" 240 lb. Junior QB is ready to build on this success. The Gators return big playmakers on offense in Tyrie Cleveland who will suit up against Miami. Alongside him is 6'5" Trevon Grimes, 6'2" Van Jefferson, 6'1" Freddie Swain and 6'1" Josh Hammond. All have solid experience playing last season and the receiving corps is only 2nd to Alabama in the SEC. The RB stable is solid again with Perine taking the lead, followed by Davis and Pierce who have good speed, agility and breakaway speed. The offensive line played well last season but they will still need to fill a few holes. If the Gators have two disadvantages it would be the O-line and depth in the defensive secondary. They lost another reserve DB in C.J. McWilliams for the season.

Miami did not have the type of season it wanted last year going 7-6 and forcing Mark Richt to retire. Diaz takes over the helm at HC and the Hurricanes have a Top 15 defensive unit to start the season. Miami has announced that Jarren Williams (3rd on the depth chart) and a freshman out of GA will take the helm. He's a 6'2" 210 QB that only played in very limited action against Savannah State last year going 1 for 3 for 17 yards. He will face a Grantham run Florida defense that will blitz a lot. DeeJay Dallas, Cam'Ron Harris and Robert Burns will fill the backfield. Burns just had offseason surgery so is questionable for the opener. Miami has two standout receivers in Mike Harley and Brian Hightower. Keep in mind that Miami had to fill a lot of holes so they went deep into the transfer portal to gather many new players to shore up the team in certain spots. None of these players have played together.

Grantham will have Florida blitzing the freshman a lot throughout the game. Williams' head will be on a swivel and he should see heavy pressure. In strength metrics (TSRS), Miami is ranked 41st in the nation. Florida is ranked 18th to start the season.

Florida went 7-4 overall against the spread, placing it 24th in the Country. They also covered the spread by more than 4.82 points above the spread margin. Miami was 119th in the nation at 4-8 ATS with a disappointing -4.88 cover diff failure below the margin.

Another least known stat fact: An unranked Miami team has not beaten a top 10 ranked team this Century. Florida starts the season #8 in the polls.

Wagers for the week

Per the original post, I'm starting with a 1k bankroll and will be wagering using a CAR model posted below. This means for week 0 I can only wager 20% CAR, which means no more than $200.

WEEK	CAR %
0 , 1, 4	20%
5	25%
6	30%
7, 8	40%
9, 10	50%
11, 12, 13, 14, 15	60%
Bowlseason	70%

Wager Info: Placed $200 to win $148.15 on Florida laying the points (bought 0.5 pts to 7) at -135.
Original line opened at: +7.5, moved to +7.0 for more than a month then moved back to +7.5 this week.
Prediction Info: I see Florida winning by 11+, however both Miami and Florida still have question marks on the O-line, but both defenses are very solid. This should be a low scoring game, but I see Florida winning 31-17.



EDIT image to remove barcode.

Regardless of win/loss, I will post final totals after the game has been played.