Zourah
Zourah
Joined: Mar 26, 2016
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August 23rd, 2016 at 6:14:12 PM permalink
http://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports-wvu/20160823/suspended-wvu-ol-adam-pankey-out-against-missouri

Fifth year senior, started every game last year
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 30th, 2016 at 5:13:34 AM permalink
Betonline.ag has Clemson -7.5 and the money line is -280/+235. This book is a little more generous than most but the basic unwritten rule is the farther a game is from a pick, the less the vig on the money line. The vig against a typical spread with a 10/11 payout is 4.55% On the money line here using Wiz's straight bet calculator I found the HA against the money line to be only 3.41% You gain 1.14% in reduced vig by betting on the money line. Since everyone would pretty much agree that if you can beat sports it's by a very small margin this seems to me to be pretty significant. Most wouldn't want to bet the fave on the money line because of the skimpy payout and increased variance. Pardon me if I state the obvious but there may be newbie bettors here: If you bet Clemson at -7.5 and with 2 minutes left they're up by 6 on their own 40 yard line they're probably not going to try to score but will instead run out the clock meaning you will lose your bet even though you may were probably right that in this game they were more than 7.5 points better than Auburn. Considering all these things I consider the money line to be a significantly better bet on the fave and I would accept the smaller payout and the increased variance. Unless I had a very strong opinion that a greater than predicted # of points is likely to be scored by the fave and not scored by the dog. And this is much more difficult to predict than to predict the winner; again I'm aware that I'm stating the obvious here.


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
"that ball hit his hands. that's a foul ball. the hands are part of the bat"........... "O.K. you think the hands are part of the bat then go down to Dick's Sporting Goods and buy a bat with hands attached." former MLB umpire Jim Evans
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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August 30th, 2016 at 6:51:46 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Betonline.ag has Clemson -7.5 and the money line is -280/+235. This book is a little more generous than most but the basic unwritten rule is the farther a game is from a pick, the less the vig on the money line. The vig against a typical spread with a 10/11 payout is 4.55% On the money line here using Wiz's straight bet calculator I found the HA against the money line to be only 3.41% You gain 1.14% in reduced vig by betting on the money line. Since everyone would pretty much agree that if you can beat sports it's by a very small margin this seems to me to be pretty significant. Most wouldn't want to bet the fave on the money line because of the skimpy payout and increased variance. Pardon me if I state the obvious but there may be newbie bettors here: If you bet Clemson at -7.5 and with 2 minutes left they're up by 6 on their own 40 yard line they're probably not going to try to score but will instead run out the clock meaning you will lose your bet even though you may were probably right that in this game they were more than 7.5 points better than Auburn. Considering all these things I consider the money line to be a significantly better bet on the fave and I would accept the smaller payout and the increased variance. Unless I had a very strong opinion that a greater than predicted # of points is likely to be scored by the fave and not scored by the dog. And this is much more difficult to predict than to predict the winner; again I'm aware that I'm stating the obvious here.


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/



I'll add to your post.

Normally, for me, I will wager the ML for -110 to -250. That's my value range on favorites. If it's a dog, I'll wager on the ATS, if the dog ML is equal to or lower than +250. If you have a highly predictive system this is all you need to do to make a profit.

However, you can still wager 3 units to 1 unit on this type of game. 3 units on the ML and 1 unit on he ATS. This is for favorites. For underdogs, I do a 2 unit to 1 unit wager. 2 units on the ATS and 1 unit on the ML.

It depends on your CAR (Capital at Risk), the size of your bankroll and the quality of the prediction. I would suggest everyone become familiar with different aspects of wagering.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 4th, 2016 at 6:03:08 AM permalink
All those who went against our two prognosticators are rolling in the money! Of course one game does not a season make but boy were they both wrong! My sons take on the Mizzou team was spot on. As I stated earlier though it is good to see some people willing to put their picks out for all to see. Maybe week two will be there redemption!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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September 4th, 2016 at 6:37:05 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

All those who went against our two prognosticators are rolling in the money! Of course one game does not a season make but boy were they both wrong! My sons take on the Mizzou team was spot on. As I stated earlier though it is good to see some people willing to put their picks out for all to see. Maybe week two will be there redemption!




I'm not sure if you are referring to me as one of the prognosticators but anyway I recommended betting on the money line which would have won. But I wasn't actually picking the game, I was just talking generally, so I can't take credit either. But it is one more example of the money line winning while the spread loses.
"that ball hit his hands. that's a foul ball. the hands are part of the bat"........... "O.K. you think the hands are part of the bat then go down to Dick's Sporting Goods and buy a bat with hands attached." former MLB umpire Jim Evans
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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September 4th, 2016 at 7:16:55 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

His perspective is that it was the more talented players that were part of 'the unsavory element', and that they are being replaced with lesser level recruits. Niceness usually is less important than talent.....



This is definitely true. Although Mauk was never that good. Definitely wasn't when he was stoned. We looked like crap yesterday, reminded me of Mizzou football when I was in school. Congrats on your son becoming a fellow Mizzou alum!
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 6
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September 4th, 2016 at 10:40:01 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

All those who went against our two prognosticators are rolling in the money! Of course one game does not a season make but boy were they both wrong! My sons take on the Mizzou team was spot on. As I stated earlier though it is good to see some people willing to put their picks out for all to see. Maybe week two will be there redemption!



If we can get this guy to post picks all year, it will be a great fade opportunity.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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  • Posts: 467
September 4th, 2016 at 11:40:51 AM permalink


Well Auburn was one of the few SEC teams that played well this week. Their defensive line was fairly solid most of the game. I don't particularly like the non-call on the FG with 40 seconds to go because Clemson was only up by 6 at the time. Had Auburn come back and won the game I think a lot of people would have been questioning the call not to kick. The kick would have covered the spread.

With that said, I'm still 4-2 this week with two games to go. I didn't pick a huge slate of games because of it being week one. If Clemson would have kicked the FG I'd probably be 5-1 right now. Oh well, that happens sometimes.

The remaining games I have are:

Notre Dame (-165 ML)
Florida State (-2.5, -160)

I bought a majority of these early on to lock in value. I'm hoping to finish out at 6-2 this week. I'm 3-1 on ATS and 1-1 on ML.

Notre Dame will be a tough call. Both teams have really solid running games and Texas will more than likely start or play their freshman QB (who has a very solid arm). I believe Notre Dame's line is undervalued and will step up and create some issues for Texas. Some folks have Texas upsetting them and it may happen. But, I'm not sold on Texas until they can prove they can win a big game.

Florida State will cover. I have no doubt on that.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
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September 4th, 2016 at 11:45:41 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

If we can get this guy to post picks all year, it will be a great fade opportunity.



If I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks. I mentioned early on if anyone wanted a free preview to my picks (and I'm not posting the site due to forum rules), just PM me and I'll give you a free preview for the season.

Then, you can truly see the value of what I do. Until then, talk all the smack you want. I've made money this week and will continue to make money the remainder of the season.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 6
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September 4th, 2016 at 11:52:57 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

If I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks. I mentioned early on if anyone wanted a free preview to my picks (and I'm not posting the site due to forum rules), just PM me and I'll give you a free preview for the season.

Then, you can truly see the value of what I do. Until then, talk all the smack you want. I've made money this week and will continue to make money the remainder of the season.



You adjusted your unrealistic prediction based on a defensive lineman not playing. A player literally worthless to the spread. That's all I need to know, and I made a good chunk fading as well.

All I ask is you please continue to post your teaser picks here or whatever. I am very confident it will be profitable. Off to a great start already!

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