Thread Rating:

AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 131
  • Posts: 16741
July 28th, 2019 at 12:31:13 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Did you use a calculator?

You are obviously jealous that I know how to use one.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1091
July 28th, 2019 at 12:55:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You are obviously jealous that I know how to use one.

Yeah but can you reverse Polish notation?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 4920
July 28th, 2019 at 3:36:35 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Yeah but can you reverse Polish notation?



Only on my slide rule.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 131
  • Posts: 16741
July 28th, 2019 at 4:16:04 PM permalink
Speaking of calculators, I recently came across a Hewlett-Packard Vintage HP 12C Financial Calculator HP12C w/ Sleeve
at the thrift shop. I had no idea if they were worth anything, but I suspected it had more value than the $1.99 price tag and I thought it looked neat.

I sent a pic of it to The Wizard. He nerded out and wanted to buy it. I just gave it to him.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 2404
July 29th, 2019 at 12:35:46 AM permalink
I believe there's a pretty good chance the article is bogus
published by Pinnacle - from their website - they have good reason to report such a high % of winners - trying to attract new players and increase betting of players already snagged by them


I googled the issue and found reports of several academic studies of gamblers - none claimed 13% were winners. I could be wrong - I'll believe it when I see it - I won't believe a report from Pinnacle themselves



this is what I googled and I read several of the links:


https://www.google.com/search?q=harvard+medical+school+study+of+sports+betting&oq=har&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i61j0l3.2239j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 29, 2019
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 1835
July 29th, 2019 at 7:26:10 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I believe there's a pretty good chance the article is bogus
published by Pinnacle - from their website - they have good reason to report such a high % of winners - trying to attract new players and increase betting of players already snagged by them


I googled the issue and found reports of several academic studies of gamblers - none claimed 13% were winners. I could be wrong - I'll believe it when I see it - I won't believe a report from Pinnacle themselves



this is what I googled and I read several of the links:


https://www.google.com/search?q=harvard+medical+school+study+of+sports+betting&oq=har&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i61j0l3.2239j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8



Pinnacle has always intertwined transparency and an educated customer base into their business models. Their articles (and podcasts) are usually spot on (and dry and boring). The study they reference is linked in their article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10899-007-9067-3 . Based on the numbers, if each player made the same number of bets (eight million bets made by +40,000 accounts is less than 200 bets each), we would expect 26% to finish with a profit betting -110 lines. Given an 18% hold and so few winners, they were obviously betting long shots and high juice
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 1835
Thanks for this post from:
SOOPOO
July 29th, 2019 at 7:29:55 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-is-survivorship-bias/3DY2T5GERNE7GJYH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=article-link&utm_campaign=betting-strategy


“Harvard Medical School analysed the betting histories of over 40,000 of customers playing with a leading online sports bookmaker.

Placing nearly 8 million bets and wagering over €60 million.

Only 245 players showed profits of over €1,000.”

245 of 40,000.



"The median betting behavior of the 24,794 live-action bettors was to place 2.8 wagers of €4 every fourth day"

For more than half of them it's the equivalent of buying into a blackjack table for $20 once a week. Pretty hard to make a $1,000 profit in a couple months like that.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 1835
July 29th, 2019 at 7:50:36 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

A new thing I heard on sprotsbetting on GambleOn. They said that people in Europe are somewhat amazed at how much analysis Americans put into sports betting. AFIK it was neither positive nor negative feelings. Just more of something those crazy Yanks do.

Wondering if any of our European members notice this. Or anyone else for that matter.

To me it is simple. Half the sports bettors are just analytical types and sports books are where you can test that. Many would like to be stock analysts but it is hard to get that job without the right bloodlines and/or gone to the right school, of which there are maybe 20 in the nation. To do stocks on your own takes way more money, so start analyzing sports, which you may be watching anyhow.

Discuss.



Major difference is that a monkey throwing darts at the stock market has historically almost doubled their money every 10 years. Doing the same things with sports means losing 4.5% of all money bet until it's at zero. The nine figure career paths in finance are completely about connections. But now that online brokers have taken over, it's possible to bet small in the stock market, the low commission makes the barrier for entry so low that anyone can get it. But the other major difference is that a sports bet can be resolved in a couple of hours, so total volume can be huge even for a small player. For a lot of people picking stocks, it takes a couple decades to resolve those bets.

As a group, American betters do love to analyze every imaginable statistic and angle, injuries, weather, streaks, trends, point differentials, yards per play, batting average on balls in play. Almost always, it's either already built into the odds or just noise. But most know it's just a hobby. And for most losing a few dollars on bets is still less than the time spent watching sports and reading about them. Can be a lot less than what gets spent going to games and buying merchandise.

Europeans generally see sports bets as the equivalent of a slot machine that catches their eye, putting in some cash in and pressing the button.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 2404
July 30th, 2019 at 4:39:50 AM permalink
thanks for that very good explanation of the 13% thing Tom
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 9319
July 30th, 2019 at 4:41:51 AM permalink
Why is it that we always do great at gambling on your first go around and makes it seem easy. My first trip to a casino where I was 18 I won $800 on haywire 3 reel.

I am 12-1 on MLB ML on my first 13 bets since pa online went live. They range from +115 to -180. At this rate I will retire by the end of the year. Doing $100 bets, up $890.

Now that I wrote this I will go 1-12
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

  • Jump to: