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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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July 25th, 2019 at 3:45:04 AM permalink
the house adjusts the odds on the run line effectively based on whether you're laying a team that is home or away
you don't fail to cover one out of 6 times if you lay the runs on the money line fave - it's more than that because the fave will win more often
baseball betting is not very popular - so most sites give you a deal on the house edge on the traditional money line bet
but not on the run line bet
today at betonline. ag - money line - Mets -210/Padres +194 - house edge - 1.73%
run line - Mets -105/ Padres -115 - house edge - 4.5%

if the line on the Mets game is a fair line in 9 games the Mets on average will win 6 and lose 3
in about 2 of the 6 games they win they will fail to cover
that means if you lay them you will average about winning 4 bets and losing 5 at -105
is this situation it looks like a terrible bet not considering what handicapping might reveal
a great deal of wise handicapping must happen for the run line bet to be a good one - it's not one you can expect better results from betting without lots of good handicapping

basically, the bet is a tease for those who think they got a really good deal by turning a money line fave into a run line dog



Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 25, 2019
"that ball hit his hands. that's a foul ball. the hands are part of the bat"........... "O.K. you think the hands are part of the bat then go down to Dick's Sporting Goods and buy a bat with hands attached." former MLB umpire Jim Evans
TomG
TomG
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July 25th, 2019 at 12:12:54 PM permalink
I put the value of the promotion around $400. Most people will not maximize the value.
TomG
TomG
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Thanks for this post from:
Rigondeaux
July 25th, 2019 at 12:16:48 PM permalink
About 10 years ago, betting big underdogs at +1.5 in Las Vegas was one of the easiest ways to find good bets. So many people just want to bet heavy favorites without laying juice. Now the Vegas sportsbooks generally follow the online markets much closer. The real reason to not bet the run lines in baseball is because they are generally a 4.5% house edge compared to ~2.5% on baseball money lines. The 2.5s are usually a good place to find value in Las Vegas, because the sportsbooks here generally require action to move lines and those props are much smaller markets.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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July 25th, 2019 at 12:50:08 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

About 10 years ago, betting big underdogs at +1.5 in Las Vegas was one of the easiest ways to find good bets. So many people just want to bet heavy favorites without laying juice. Now the Vegas sportsbooks generally follow the online markets much closer. The real reason to not bet the run lines in baseball is because they are generally a 4.5% house edge compared to ~2.5% on baseball money lines. The 2.5s are usually a good place to find value in Las Vegas, because the sportsbooks here generally require action to move lines and those props are much smaller markets.



How are you calculating house edge here? Are you just figuring the spread in juice (10 cent, 20 cent, etc?) or something else.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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July 25th, 2019 at 1:00:38 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

How are you calculating house edge here? Are you just figuring the spread in juice (10 cent, 20 cent, etc?) or something else.



For these bets it is simply the sportsbook’s hold. Parlays and multi-way bets it would be different
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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July 25th, 2019 at 1:03:33 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

For these bets it is simply the sportsbook’s hold. Parlays and multi-way bets it would be different



Thanks. Just so I get this, that just means their oddsmakers do better on it than they do on the moneyline?

Mostly new to betting MLB here, trying to learn how to handicap it better.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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July 26th, 2019 at 10:01:36 AM permalink
The first thing that we should get out of the way is that my Cleveland Browns article last year was exactly WRONG!!!

Despite a marked improvement, however, I do not think the Browns should be an outright favorite to win the AFC North, and I give my reasons here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/i-was-wrong-about-the-browns/
Vultures can't be choosers.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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July 26th, 2019 at 1:15:22 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The first thing that we should get out of the way is that my Cleveland Browns article last year was exactly WRONG!!!

Despite a marked improvement, however, I do not think the Browns should be an outright favorite to win the AFC North, and I give my reasons here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/i-was-wrong-about-the-browns/



The Browns had 2001 ties last year? I need to hook ESPN back up!
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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July 26th, 2019 at 1:24:51 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

The Browns had 2001 ties last year? I need to hook ESPN back up!



Ha! I’ll have to see if I can edit that. It must have confused my record formatting for date formatting.

EDIT: Fixed, thanks! I think whatever BralasLT uses to transfer what I send him to the page used to insert articles here assumed that I was trying to put in dates and converted it accordingly. My original has what is now in the article.
Vultures can't be choosers.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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July 28th, 2019 at 5:52:17 AM permalink
A new thing I heard on sprotsbetting on GambleOn. They said that people in Europe are somewhat amazed at how much analysis Americans put into sports betting. AFIK it was neither positive nor negative feelings. Just more of something those crazy Yanks do.

Wondering if any of our European members notice this. Or anyone else for that matter.

To me it is simple. Half the sports bettors are just analytical types and sports books are where you can test that. Many would like to be stock analysts but it is hard to get that job without the right bloodlines and/or gone to the right school, of which there are maybe 20 in the nation. To do stocks on your own takes way more money, so start analyzing sports, which you may be watching anyhow.

Discuss.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing

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