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AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
July 24th, 2019 at 3:13:35 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

yes took me a bit to understand what they wanted. At first I was like oh crap cant do -108, but it is the other way. You can not do anything below -150 (or -200 for Rivers) So no heavy favorite -500. They have no problem with big underdog of +800



Somebody there needs to take a tech/copywrightinng class, but thanks.

What do you mean "for Rivers?" Do they have a promo like this?

I read this as a pretty good deal but am tapped at the moment. Maybe bitcoin pops in the next month. Would like to do it for $1K.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
unJon
unJon 
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July 24th, 2019 at 3:57:58 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Thanks for starting, was thinking about doing the same.

My discussion question is about the Run Line. So far best I can see is never use it on an underdog, IOW, lay but not take the points. And best to only use it to turn a favorite to a dog, IOW, never take > +101.

Seems about 1/3 of MLB games end in a 1 run difference, meaning 1 in 6 times you will get bit by winning but not covering.

Anyone else have thoughts?



The considerations vary depending on whether the home or away team is the underdog. Home teams win by 1 run more often than visiting teams for obvious reasons.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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July 24th, 2019 at 4:24:09 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

The considerations vary depending on whether the home or away team is the underdog. Home teams win by 1 run more often than visiting teams for obvious reasons.



An important point. GambleOn gave a few of the best runline teams. In the off-season I hope to get stats for 3-5 years and get my own stats. Only making mini-bets this year to test things out. Funny but it seems betting baseball despite the most stats has among the least info out there.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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July 24th, 2019 at 4:34:18 PM permalink
That futures promo gwae posted looks like a New Jersey promo not PA unless Iím missing something. Pointsbet in NJ has a 1k loss rebate till end of month but Iím assuming if youíre a new player theyíll give you the new player promo instead, and they have a reputation for giving future restrictions to promo abusers.

Also worth noting of those bonus bets work like promo chips/match play where itís only worth around half face value or are they face value.
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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July 24th, 2019 at 5:02:44 PM permalink
Interesting promo. Good -- maybe -- but not great. Let's walk through it. If you bet 1k on an NFL SB future, you get 10% ($100 "bonus bet") for each game your team wins. So the first question is, "What are the negatives of taking the teams with the highest 'to win games' figure?" Well, obviously those have low futures odds and are public teams, so both the win totals and futures odds figure to be skewed somewhat against you. But, looking at the odds currently posted, that doesn't seem to be much of an issue. The SB futures seem mainstream, and you're not getting screwed on the SB odds.

Note #1: By comparing these SB odds to Pinnacle or Heritage or, say, Westgate in LV, one can keep tabs on the "fairness" of the SB odds offered.

Now, as mentioned above, the "bonus bet" works like a promo chip, with marginally less than half of the expected value. If you take a short-priced SB contender, say Pats or Chiefs, you figure to win 10 games or thereabouts. The 10 games means $1000 in "bonus bets," not cash. Those "bonus bets" optimistically then translate into roughly $500 in cash.

Next, you must "roll it over" 1X. This means committing that $500 into wagers. So you take a small hit on that long term. The five day time limit on "bonus bet" use precludes you stockpiling "bonus bets" and taking both sides of the same game. They are, therefore, daring you to wager with the $500. One assumes a small loss on the $500.

Okay, what comes next? If everyone thinks alike, as generally happens with promos like this, you get a bunch of wagers on the short-priced faves and public teams. This in and of itself isn't terrible if you happen to really like one particular team, but because you have a half dozen public squads garnering the bulk of the money, if you do not have a strong opinion about one team, then you've fallen into the commonly touted trap of NFL futures featuring favorites -- namely that you have half a dozen teams ranging from +600 to +1200. Crunch the numbers and those teams usually add up to about 90%, meaning that you are getting inappropriately lousy odds unless you think the other 26 teams have absolutely no shot, which is ludicrous.

In conclusion, if you really like a particular public team, you may as well use the promotion. If you don't, the money is probably better spent on some other promotion, probably offshore (and no, no offshore is tipping me for this five-minute riff).

Any questions?
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
GWAE
GWAE
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July 24th, 2019 at 5:46:19 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

That futures promo gwae posted looks like a New Jersey promo not PA unless Iím missing something. Pointsbet in NJ has a 1k loss rebate till end of month but Iím assuming if youíre a new player theyíll give you the new player promo instead, and they have a reputation for giving future restrictions to promo abusers.

Also worth noting of those bonus bets work like promo chips/match play where itís only worth around half face value or are they face value.



Sorry should have mentioned. This casino will be part of presque isle in PA on Aug 8th.

Do the bonus bets work like that. It looks like it reads that you get paid for the bonus plus winnings but maybe I read it wrong
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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July 24th, 2019 at 5:54:58 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Sorry should have mentioned. This casino will be part of presque isle in PA on Aug 8th.

Do the bonus bets work like that. It looks like it reads that you get paid for the bonus plus winnings but maybe I read it wrong




If you keep the bonus plus the winnings it seems super-powerful. Just pick a team that gets regular season wins even if they dud in the playoffs.

If you keep only the winnings then not so much, you are just getting better odds on your SB prop.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
GWAE
GWAE
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July 24th, 2019 at 6:11:10 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

If you keep the bonus plus the winnings it seems super-powerful. Just pick a team that gets regular season wins even if they dud in the playoffs.

If you keep only the winnings then not so much, you are just getting better odds on your SB prop.



this leads me to believe that you get to keep the bonus amount plus winnings but I may be interpreting it incorrectly.

There is a wagering requirement before players are permitted to withdraw any bonus funds and bonus winnings from their account.
This wagering requirement will be 1X the amount of the bonus before a withdrawal of the funds can be initialed. IE - If a player receives $20 in bonus funds, they must then place wagers to the value of $20 ($20 x 1) before being able to withdraw any bonus funds and/or any bonus winnings.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
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July 24th, 2019 at 6:30:08 PM permalink
Quote: redietz


Note #1: By comparing these SB odds to Pinnacle or Heritage or, say, Westgate in LV, one can keep tabs on the "fairness" of the SB odds offered.

Now, as mentioned above, the "bonus bet" works like a promo chip, with marginally less than half of the expected value. If you take a short-priced SB contender, say Pats or Chiefs, you figure to win 10 games or thereabouts. The 10 games means $1000 in "bonus bets," not cash. Those "bonus bets" optimistically then translate into roughly $500 in cash.



I am not so sure of that. See my post above. The wording of the TC mention withdrawing bonus and winnings. Most of the NJ bonuses that I have been researching are very clear that the bonus bet is not cashable, only the winnings.

Quote: redietz

Next, you must "roll it over" 1X. This means committing that $500 into wagers. So you take a small hit on that long term. The five day time limit on "bonus bet" use precludes you stockpiling "bonus bets" and taking both sides of the same game. They are, therefore, daring you to wager with the $500. One assumes a small loss on the $500.



If we assume the above where the bonus part is cashable this is my thought. Probably an absolute terrible one.
Take $100 free on one side as close to -110 as possible. Bet $100 cash at my local on the opposite side at -110. Once the bet wins I will cash out $190.91. If we are assuming 10 wins then I am going to bring back $909.10 so my 1k wager now only costs $91.90.

If I am taking a team like the chiefs at +800. I am getting +9900 on my chiefs bet.

So lets look at it as if the bonus part is not returned, which again I kind of think it is.
Just to keep it similar with guaranteed payouts, I bet $48 at local and $100 on the site. return $43 each week for $430 over 10 games.
Now I am getting +1480 , not quite as good as 9900 but still much better

Now granted we are talking 10 games which would be a bad season for them this year. I think that would be a bad season. And of course a bad season could happen and they win 7.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
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July 24th, 2019 at 6:32:26 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Somebody there needs to take a tech/copywrightinng class, but thanks.

What do you mean "for Rivers?" Do they have a promo like this?

I read this as a pretty good deal but am tapped at the moment. Maybe bitcoin pops in the next month. Would like to do it for $1K.



No I meant their match bonus. It had to be -200 or better.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

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