Sports betting discussion thread
I didn't really pay attention to the little contest you're having since I wasn't invited.Quote: GWAEhaha isnt that great. next week going back to last years strategy of flipping coins
You're using stale lines and making real bets and that seems to be working out good?
If so, what does that tell you?
Quote: AxelWolfI didn't really pay attention to the little contest you're having since I wasn't invited.
You're using stale lines and making real bets and that seems to be working out good?
If so, what does that tell you?
that no one knows anything and its all a crap shoot?
PS if it wins you can come to dinner with PG and I so you can be included.
No, it tells you that using stale lines can actually be a winning method.Quote: GWAEthat no one knows anything and its all a crap shoot?
PS if it wins you can come to dinner with PG and I so you can be included.
Quote: DRichTomlin is not a good coach. People that think so either don't watch their games or just don't understand football.
Even before I disowned the Steelers I did not care for him. My beef was that he does not protect his lead while ahead. When having a lead of 10 or more, Bill Cowher was something like 110-5-1. I forget exact, but it was that insane. Cowher got ahead, put his boot on your neck, and ran the ball down your throat. Tomlin it seemed like he always let teams get back in the game. And the same happened for the whole season. Cowher got ahead a couple games and playoffs were a sure thing. Tomlin lost more when ahead for the same reason, teams got back in the games.
Around here you have to be careful how you discuss it. While not popular on the whole, his fans are loyal to the point you can start a war with bar talk about him.
Quote: GWAEI dont think anyone around here thinks that. He is not liked well locally as a coach.
LOL at dolphins trading their young star to the steelers. Are they trying to set a record for points against?
Fitzpatrick is a good pickup for the Steelers. their definsive backs have been a liability for years now.
The Dolphins will probably not cover yet again, the Jets though? In NE means they will probably run off with it, but sooner or later someone has to score a TD on their defense.
If you just bet for fun, or "handicap" by betting based on your off the cuff judgment about widely available information like "Tim Bradford of the The Patriots is a good QB with insane receivers" I'm sure that there is enough correlation to at least make your plays less -ev than usual.
Quote: AZDuffmanEven before I disowned the Steelers I did not care for him. My beef was that he does not protect his lead while ahead. When having a lead of 10 or more, Bill Cowher was something like 110-5-1. I forget exact, but it was that insane. Cowher got ahead, put his boot on your neck, and ran the ball down your throat. Tomlin it seemed like he always let teams get back in the game. And the same happened for the whole season. Cowher got ahead a couple games and playoffs were a sure thing. Tomlin lost more when ahead for the same reason, teams got back in the games.
Two of those five losses came in the playoffs. Tomlin has only blown three leads of any size in the playoffs (7, 6, and 4). So there is that. Of course it's only eight and 10 appearances for them.
Quote: AZDuffmanTwo games this week with a 20 point spread! Has that ever happened before?
The Dolphins will probably not cover yet again, the Jets though? In NE means they will probably run off with it, but sooner or later someone has to score a TD on their defense.
Seeing +14 1h, if it ever moves to 14.5 that has to be a great bet, right? Seen a +750 money line, that might be good; would definitely grab any +800
If your book is allowing you to parlay the under and the dog, I would do so. Make sure you aren't getting screwed by off the board parlay payouts.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/alabama-vs-southern-miss-prediction-pick-odds-point-spread-line-football-game-kickoff-time-preview/
Quote: GWAEtoday seems like a weird day. All home teams are favorites except for the 2 prime time games. Not sure what to make of that.
More good teams are playing at home than usual?
Quote: DRichDid you guys watch the UCLA-Wash St game? I did as I had a wager on UCLA. UCLA came back from 32 points down in the third quarter and actually won the game 67-63. Somehow I managed to stay awake until the end. A very sloppy game.
I had it on but turned it off at half. Saw the sports ticker this morning and was like WTF. I had to go look it up to make sure the ticker wasnt wrong.
If someone was betting -6, this start shouldnt change how you feel and now you can get -2.
Quote: GWAElive betting is very intriguing. Steelers get a luck turnover and go up 3-0. Game changes from 49ers -6 to 49ers -2. I have the Steelers +6. 4 points while crossing the 3 seems like a good bet but I am still trying to figure out how all of this works.
If someone was betting -6, this start shouldnt change how you feel and now you can get -2.
Just looked at Rivers, they just have moneyline live bets.
Be careful, live betting is addicting and dangerous. You can make a bet, it goes your way, take the buyout offer, and bet some more.
People who love watching RedZone Channel should love it.
Quote: GWAEyeah I had Seattle -4.5 prior to game. After they tied it I got more at -2.
It is Day Trading. I once got some Marlins at +700 and they took the lead then sold back for like a 100% profit. Can you imagine sitting in the book and doing that all Sunday?
Quote: AZDuffmanIt is Day Trading. I once got some Marlins at +700 and they took the lead then sold back for like a 100% profit. Can you imagine sitting in the book and doing that all Sunday?
I just don't know what a good and bad bet is. so if you took it +700 for 100 and they take the lead you are on track to win 700. Is it good to take a profit even if it is 200? Profit is always good, right?
Quote: GWAEI just don't know what a good and bad bet is. so if you took it +700 for 100 and they take the lead you are on track to win 700. Is it good to take a profit even if it is 200? Profit is always good, right?
On one hand, Wiz would scold me for hedging. OTOH, I have stated I was trained to hedge as I came up in finance. Doubled my money in about 2 innings. And it was the Marlins, not exactly known for holding on.
I just peeked. SF is now at -155 moneyline. Had they been a positive I would have hedged. I'm in for just $2 or so but testing my handicapping with their money. 1% of my current bankroll. Anyhow, if they were positive I would double down.
Clearly the book sees how awful the Steelers are playing. They should be down 17-3 right now. My season under at Mountaineer is looking good!
Quote: GWAEI just don't know what a good and bad bet is.
When the payouts exceed the probability, it is a good bet. When you don't have any clue about the probability of a team coming from behind to win, it's almost certainly not a good bet. On any given event, it could be the right thing to do, but over time, it will lead to an overall loss
Quote: DRichDid you guys watch the UCLA-Wash St game? I did as I had a wager on UCLA. UCLA came back from 32 points down in the third quarter and actually won the game 67-63. Somehow I managed to stay awake until the end. A very sloppy game.
I did a search for 'UCLA football score' this morning and had to do a double-take that they didn't give me a basketball score from the beginning of the year
Quote: DRichI also enjoy in game wagering. I only do it on games where I am watching every play. I had about 8 in game bets on the Georgia game last night.
So I just screwed myself. Owell I will call this a $30 lesson. I am not actually watching the Carolina game. In game popped up as Ari +15.5 -130. NFL.com was not updated and Ari was only down a few. Jumped on it, then realized something wasnt right and went to cbssports and saw that they are down by 15. OHHH crap. after the last punt it went to carolina +15.5 for +120. So now I am either winning 20 or losing 30. Now I am rooting for a carolina score.
Quote: GWAESo I just screwed myself. Owell I will call this a $30 lesson. I am not actually watching the Carolina game. In game popped up as Ari +15.5 -130. NFL.com was not updated and Ari was only down a few. Jumped on it, then realized something wasnt right and went to cbssports and saw that they are down by 15. OHHH crap. after the last punt it went to carolina +15.5 for +120. So now I am either winning 20 or losing 30. Now I am rooting for a carolina score.
whew that ended up working out. +20 profit.
What do you all think the line will be be next week and where will the value be? Cincy is 0-3 as well so maybe it will be PIT -3. Where is the value there? Or does anyone see a different line?
Quote: TomGA lot on parlays, which are still going on. Need Giants to cover, Seattle under, and Chargers over on these 1:00 games. All could go either way, but not feeling too good about them. A lot could be riding on the Browns under tonight
My method this week on parlays was to be drawing dead across the board by around 8 minutes after kick off.
It's far more relaxing. And I can ignore all of the flag and commercial fests for the rest of the day.
Quote: RigondeauxMy method this week on parlays was to be drawing dead across the board by around 8 minutes after kick off.
It's far more relaxing. And I can ignore all of the flag and commercial fests for the rest of the day.
lmao did you succeed?
Quote: AZDuffmanSo, that was ugly. SF should have more than covered. 5 turnovers and you only get 20 points?
What do you all think the line will be be next week and where will the value be? Cincy is 0-3 as well so maybe it will be PIT -3. Where is the value there? Or does anyone see a different line?
I would guess Pitt -4.5 or -5.
I would think the correct line would be -3.5 or -4 but Pittsburgh is a public team so that will probably move the line an extra point.
Quote: DRichI would guess Pitt -4.5 or -5.
-5 might put real value on the dog.
Quote: GWAElmao did you succeed?
Yeah. I had an outside shot of not losing every bet till probably the 4th quarter of the early games, but there wasn't much suspense this weekend.
Quote: RigondeauxYeah. I had an outside shot of not losing every bet till probably the 4th quarter of the early games, but there wasn't much suspense this weekend.
I started 0-5 in the early games yesterday. I thought for sure I was doomed. Amazingly I had a good afternoon and came out $50 ahead.
No early line on Steelers here. Wondering if the linemakers are waiting for there?
Quote: AZDuffmanBills getting 7.5 against visiting Patriots. Take the points?
No early line on Steelers here. Wondering if the linemakers are waiting for there?
Westgate has -4.5 per vegasinsider.com
Quote: unJonWestgate has -4.5 per vegasinsider.com
About where anyone I discussed has it. Might take the dog, er cat, here.
That being said, I predicted 7.5, assuming Edelman plays. If he is out I drop line to 6.5. A rare non QB that can move the line in my opinion.
OJ Video with > 6,000 comments
The comments posted by the public on the video are incredibly funny.
Quote: gordonm888OJ Simpson has posted a short video on Twitter in which he discusses AB- Antonio Brown.
p] OJ Video with > 6,000 comments
The comments posted by the public on the video are incredibly funny.
I can't believe I'm saying this but maybe AB could take some life tips from you. This is getting out of hand.
Visit the sportsbook side-menu to bet the Eagles moneyline boosted from +148 -> +300 before kickoff, and keep it locked in at XXXXXXXX this weekend for all your pregame and live bets on College Football, MLB Playoffs, NFL Sunday & MORE!
Max wager is only $25 to win $75. I mean this is a no brainer to just bet it, right? I have no idea who they are even playing but I know the current line is +150.
I get stuff like this every day..
Here is mine from yesterday.
bet pre-match $20+ money line on any pro baseball game(s) held between October 10 – 12. If your team scores 5 or more runs and loses, we will refund you with up to $50 in free bet!
Quote: AZDuffmanBills getting 7.5 against visiting Patriots. Take the points?
No early line on Steelers here. Wondering if the linemakers are waiting for there?
I really don't know about the Bills, stay away is my opinion. Steeler's quarterback had a concussion pretty sure.
You’re responding to a post from a prior week. Bills on bye. Steelers starting Hodges. Mason is out.Quote: onenickelmiracleI really don't know about the Bills, stay away is my opinion. Steeler's quarterback had a concussion pretty sure.
Quote: GWAENow that SB is legal in PA I get emails everyday with specials. Todays special is:
Visit the sportsbook side-menu to bet the Eagles moneyline boosted from +148 -> +300 before kickoff, and keep it locked in at XXXXXXXX this weekend for all your pregame and live bets on College Football, MLB Playoffs, NFL Sunday & MORE!
Max wager is only $25 to win $75. I mean this is a no brainer to just bet it, right? I have no idea who they are even playing but I know the current line is +150.
I get stuff like this every day..
Here is mine from yesterday.
bet pre-match $20+ money line on any pro baseball game(s) held between October 10 – 12. If your team scores 5 or more runs and loses, we will refund you with up to $50 in free bet!
I got Steelers +500 email. Herd the fair moneyline is half that from a former bookie I know. Steelers have kept most games close. Tempted to bet what I would win on taking the spread.
