Presidential Election Betting
Quote: SOOPOOI believe I said something like this before Obama won his first term......
"Are we talking about the same country, the United States presidential election? C'mon, a black candidate? This is just unrealistic fantasy talk. You're a smart person, where do you get this stuff?"
I think I was proven wrong........
Oh by the way, I forgot to say something in my first reply to you. I would GLADLY vote for a black man to be president, he'd just have to be a reasonable nutcase like me.
(Walter E. Williams would do.)
Quote: WizardI'm already smelling Trump beats Biden. The liberal side of the Democratic party will be split among too many people while Biden will have a lock on the moderates. In the general election -- I'll say it again, the more charismatic candidate has won in every election since the television age, which I start at 1960.
I'll give you Trump over Biden against any other result for +250.
Or Trump over Biden (both must be the nominees for action) for -120.
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In the past, everyone had severe political disagreements, but were always willing to work together in an effort to best serve the country. That made it so f people saw the country moving the right direction, the incumbent party was a huge favorite; if people didn't see the country moving in the challenging party would be the likely winner. Then after 2008, the opposition did everything it could to fight against, rather than work together. We've only seen more of that over the past decade. That mentality turns any elections into a coin-flip as everyone simply entrenches themselves into their tribe.
I would GLADLY vote for any qualified man or woman to be president. Unlike most conservatives, I don't have the slightest interest in what goes on in somebodies bedroom.Quote: bobbartopI would GLADLY vote for a black man to be president, he'd just have to be a reasonable nutcase like me.
Quote: terapinedUnlike most conservatives, I don't have the slightest interest in what goes on in somebodies bedroom.
If you have a problem with conservatives, then you should have a real problem with Muslims. Why are you so intolerant?
Quote: WizardI'm already smelling Trump beats Biden. The liberal side of the Democratic party will be split among too many people while Biden will have a lock on the moderates. In the general election -- I'll say it again, the more charismatic candidate has won in every election since the television age, which I start at 1960.
Was Nixon ever the more charismatic candidate? Maybe, I think there was nearly zero charisma among Nixon Humphrey and McGovern.
Quote: WizardI'm already smelling Trump beats Biden. The liberal side of the Democratic party will be split among too many people while Biden will have a lock on the moderates. In the general election -- I'll say it again, the more charismatic candidate has won in every election since the television age, which I start at 1960.
I think Biden is reasonably charismatic, apart from all the inappropriate stuff with girls.
The problem is that he is "electable".
Democrats and media have this funny use of that term. What it really means is, "in service is the people who own the party"".
Promise nothing to voters and deliver less.
Hilary was the most "electable" person in history. First she got destroyed by a black dude with a Muslim name. Then she got beat up by an elderly Jew nobody had heard of. Then she lost to a clown from reality TV
In each case, she had way more money and the media on her side.
That's "electable.".
I think they know that people like this are not actually electable. They just don't care.
They know that they could win if they, for example, addressed the student loan crisis. But they'd rather lose than go against the banks.
They continue to lose at every level. I expect more of the same. You can't just run on "we are terrible but the Republicans are worse".
Quote: MaxPenIf the Ole' HillDog steps into the race will that sway your opinion any?
That would increase Trump's chances significantly.
Quote: TomGI'll give you Trump over Biden against any other result for +250.
Or Trump over Biden (both must be the nominees for action) for -120.
I think I'll take both. I'll PM you for the details.
Quote: billryanIn early 2006, one of my cousins in Ireland emailed me about a betting opportunity he had. For a rather small sum, he would win $10,000 if Obama were to be elected President in 2008. I told him the chances of that happening were closer to a million to one and not to waste his money. He didn't bet and now reminds me I cost him $10,000.
Reminds me of something I said right after the 2004 election - on the strength of his keynote speech at that year's Democratic National Convention, "pencil in Obama for the VP spot in 2012, assuming the Republicans win in 2008 (otherwise, of course, the incumbent VP would run again)."
Quote: JimRockfordWas Nixon ever the more charismatic candidate? Maybe, I think there was nearly zero charisma among Nixon Humphrey and McGovern.
In 68, George Wallace was by far the most charismatic of the bunch. He was also an all out racist, which won him a lot of votes.
If morality for Presidents was on life support, Kennedy pulled the plug.
It’s amazing he didn’t get us all nuked while he was busy thinking with his reportedly little c##k instead of his brain.
He made Obama and Trump look like altar boys compared to him.
Quote: billryanIn 68, George Wallace was by far the most charismatic of the bunch. He was also an all out racist, which won him a lot of votes.
I was referring to the main parties only. Wallace ran as an independent, which we all know, except Howard Schultz, have no shot. Not counting him, that one came down to Nixon vs. Humphrey. I was only three years old at the time of that election, so don't remember it, but do recall Nixon being quite popular before the Watergate house of cards fell. In every clip I've seen of Humphrey he came off as a dud. Didn't he cry in answering a reporter's question once (calling Paco)? Maybe the older members can chime in.
Quote: WizardI was referring to the main parties only. Wallace ran as an independent, which we all know, except Howard Schultz, have no shot. Not counting him, that one came down to Nixon vs. Humphrey. I was only three years old at the time of that election, so don't remember it, but do recall Nixon being quite popular before the Watergate house of cards fell. In every clip I've seen of Humphrey he came off as a dud. Didn't he cry in answering a reporter's question once (calling Paco)? Maybe the older members can chime in.
Humphrey was more mediagenic and had more charisma than Nixon.
LBJ was also very unlikeable but he ran against Goldwater, who had charisma but scared people with harsh rhetoric. So, let;s give LBJ the nod.
Charisma
Kennedy > Nixon
LBJ ~ Goldwater???
Humphrey> Nixon
Nixon>McGovern (I think)
Carter> Ford
Reagan> Carter > Mondale
H.W. Bush > Dukakis
B. Clinton >H.W.Bush, Dole
W. Bush > Gore
W. Bush ~ Kerry
Obama > McCain and Romney
Trump > H.Clinton (Note: Barry Sanders > H. Clinton; Pig poop > H. Clinton)
Quote: RigondeauxPretty accurate imo Though I don't remember Herbert Hoover like you guys
It's common for guys your age to have memory problems.
Quote: terapinedUnlike most conservatives, I don't have the slightest interest in what goes on in somebodies bedroom.
Quote: bobbartopIf you have a problem with conservatives, then you should have a real problem with Muslims. Why are you so intolerant?
?????????
How am I being intolerant when I don't care what goes on in the bedroom when evaluating a candidate
Sure a lot of cultures still have problems accepting Gays such as Conservative culture, Muslim culture, Hispanic culture ect
The tide is changing as more people in these groups are slowly accepting gays
So yea, I have a problem with people that hate gays just for being gay regardless of the haters politics or religion or culture
Quote: terapined?????????
The tide is changing as more people in these groups are slowly accepting gays
So yea, I have a problem with people that hate gays just for being gay regardless of the haters politics or religion or culture
I don't know any conservatives who hate gays. You're full of it.
Quote: bobbartopI don't know any conservatives who hate gays. You're full of it.
Yeah I know of no conservatives that hate gays. I think more than a few do not view them as needing the protected class status they have been granted however.
Quote: bobbartopI don't know any conservatives who hate gays. You're full of it.
Maybe hate is a bit strong
But
Why are so many against gay marraige?
Quote: terapined
Why are so many against gay marraige?
Because many believe that it is against the plan their God has set forth. That it is a sin. Just like they will be against other sins like murder and adultery. You may not believe that it is a sin (homosexuality), but you must be aware that Christianity and Islam do.
I think it's safe to say that, in general, Dems would be more comfortable with a gay prez and a first man than Reps.
The most anti gay reps would never vote Dem anyway. So I don't think he'd be hurt much in the middle.
But it's not quite that simple. E g. Blacks are obviously hard core dems. However, they are more anti gay than the general population.
This could create a problem for the mayor.
I think that Bernie being a Jew, or at least non-christan really hurt him there too.
I don't think he'll get the nom. Maybe in a few years. We know that young people are overwhelmingly gay friendly across demographics so the longer he waits the less of an issue it will be
Quote: SOOPOOBecause many believe that it is against the plan their God has set forth. That it is a sin. Just like they will be against other sins like murder and adultery. You may not believe that it is a sin (homosexuality), but you must be aware that Christianity and Islam do.
That's right. We don't hate them. They're going to Hell anyway so they got enough to worry about without us conservatives hating on them. But I don't mind them at all, I just try to stay several yards away from them in case of any sudden lightning bolts.
Quote: terapinedMaybe hate is a bit strong
No, you said it right the first time, this is how you liberals think. Us republicans hate everything. The elderly, the minorities, women, the handicapped, puppies, we hate it all. You got it all figured out.
the link shows that the results of the polling change almost on a daily basis
for example:
8/26 - Trump ahead
8/25 - Trump ahead
8/24 - Biden ahead
8/23 - Trump ahead
8/21 - Biden ahead
all different pollsters are being used
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
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The electoral college may favor republicans but the current make up of the electoral college does not. 2016 was a perfect storm. 2024 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2020. Republicans (and Trump for that matter) are just sitting back thinking wow things are so bad we have to win. Well how’d that plan work out for the midterms? Without looking too deep into it, I’m guessing the solid right/lean right count adds up to around 190 or 200. While the solid left/leans left probably is around 230. Basically every election republicans have to run the tables and democrats just have to hold onto what they got. In the end you have to get to 270. How is the republican going to get there? Virginia is way gone. Pennsylvania too. Georgia and Arizona are close behind. Michigan and Wisconsin are huge uphill battles. By 2028 Texas will be a swing state. While republicans love to talk about they are the party of America’s great past, democrats have been playing the 50 year plan for the past 30 years. The first part is ruining the states they control. So start with New York and California. Make it so bad that people move. So these people are moving to red states like New Jersey, New Hampshire, Texas, Arizona, Nevada and Utah. Next have massive immigration to blue states. It doesn’t matter if they’re illegal. This keeps their balance of seats in Congress and the electorate college.Quote: MichaelBluejaySince the other presidential election betting thread is closed, I'll mention that Trump is currently killing Biden in the polls. Remember, because the Electoral College system favors Republicans, the Democratic candidate has to win by at least 3% points to win the election. (e.g., Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5% in 2016, but still lost the election.) But Trump is currently ahead in even the *popular* vote.
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Trump will be the last republican elected for at least a generation.
Quote: GenoDRPhAre there any reliable and valid pols about the Electoral College so far?
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No.
You just repeated the link I provided in the previous post, and the data you summarized is inaccurate. 8/24 is for only the state of New Mexico, not the whole country. Of course Biden is ahead in New Mexico. And again, you can't look at just the +/- anyway in relation to zero, because Biden even if Biden were +2 (which he's not) that still means he'll lose the election due to the electoral college.Quote: lilredrooster.
the link shows that the results of the polling change almost on a daily basis...
Today's polling shows Biden at -4, 0, and +1 compared to Trump. Meaning he's losing in every poll.
Quote: MichaelBluejayBeing in prison won’t stop him from running or getting elected. And him getting convicted is unlikely to move the needle much with voters. All the indictments certainly didn’t. Everyone made up their minds a long time ago, and not much can change that. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5 pts (and lost the election), Biden won by 4.5 pts. So maybe 2% of voters can be swayed, and that 2% will determine who wins and who loses.
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I disagree strongly with your analysis.
Quote: MichaelBluejayBeing in prison won’t stop him from running or getting elected. And him getting convicted is unlikely to move the needle much with voters. All the indictments certainly didn’t. Everyone made up their minds a long time ago, and not much can change that. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5 pts (and lost the election), Biden won by 4.5 pts. So maybe 2% of voters can be swayed, and that 2% will determine who wins and who loses.
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Humor me. Which state that Trump lost last election do you want to bet on him winning this time? I’ll take Biden.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: MichaelBluejayBeing in prison won’t stop him from running or getting elected. And him getting convicted is unlikely to move the needle much with voters. All the indictments certainly didn’t. Everyone made up their minds a long time ago, and not much can change that. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5 pts (and lost the election), Biden won by 4.5 pts. So maybe 2% of voters can be swayed, and that 2% will determine who wins and who loses.
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Humor me. Which state that Trump lost last election do you want to bet on him winning this time? I’ll take Biden.
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It's early, but I might see Nevada flipping.
I think all the swing states last time are in play this time. Why wouldn’t they be? Biden won Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin by the tiniest margins: 0.24%, 0.31%, and 0.63% respectively, and now Trump is polling much better than Biden compared to 2020. If the election were held today, Trump wins easily.Quote: SOOPOOHumor me. Which state that Trump lost last election do you want to bet on him winning this time?
Quote: MichaelBluejayI think all the swing states last time are in play this time. Why wouldn’t they be? Biden won Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin by the tiniest margins: 0.24%, 0.31%, and 0.63% respectively, and now Trump is polling much better than Biden compared to 2020. If the election were held today, Trump wins easily.Quote: SOOPOOHumor me. Which state that Trump lost last election do you want to bet on him winning this time?
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Georgia has since reelected Democrat Warnock to the US Senate, Arizona narrowly elected Democrat Katie Hobbs as Governor, Michigan reelected Governor Democrat Whitmer and Wisconsin elected a Democrat Supreme Court justice to give the Democrats a majority. Those swing states keep swinging left, even if ever so slimly. But, maybe in swing states the last election does not in any way inform the next one.
As well, the Dobbs decision changed the landscape, and perhaps that change will be long lasting. On this basis alone, provided the electorate remembers, I'd bet Biden wins those swing states again.
Quote: MichaelBluejayI think all the swing states last time are in play this time. Why wouldn’t they be? Biden won Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin by the tiniest margins: 0.24%, 0.31%, and 0.63% respectively, and now Trump is polling much better than Biden compared to 2020. If the election were held today, Trump wins easily.Quote: SOOPOOHumor me. Which state that Trump lost last election do you want to bet on him winning this time?
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I can’t disagree more. If Trump is the nominee you and I will be doing some betting. There are enough people who despite hating everything about the Democrat party just can’t find a way to vote for Trump. And that number is continually growing. I mean look at Christie as sn example. He is as ‘anti-Democrat’ as you can be, and he wouldn’t vote for Trump. Just add a few % of such people and that ADDS to the victory the Dems had over Trump last election. I think the number of people who voted Biden last election that will switch to Trump is negligible.
Arizona is going to try to put an abortion referendum on the ballot in 2024, which would effectively put that state in the D column as well.
If I had to bet on states flipping I think WI and NV would be the ones I’d look at.
Quote: ams288The Atlanta suburbs turn bluer by the hour. I know Democrats are very bullish on GA for 2024.
Arizona is going to try to put an abortion referendum on the ballot in 2024, which would effectively put that state in the D column as well.
If I had to bet on states flipping I think WI and NV would be the ones I’d look at.
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I don't see WI falling for trump a second time. Perhaps a different republican nominee. Nevada might be a problem but its only a few votes.
For sure. I use the game theory tactic of betting on the outcome I *don't* want, anyway. That way I kind of win either way: I either get the outcome I wanted, or I get cash as a consolation prize. If you bet on what you *do* want to happen, you either win twice or not at all. It's why I bet on Trump to win in 2016, even though polls suggested he had only a 1/3 chance of winning.Quote: SOOPOOIf Trump is the nominee you and I will be doing some betting.
Well, not according to the polls. The latest poll (Economist, 8/29) has Trump at +1, which means, when considering Republicans' advantage with the electoral college, Biden is trailing by about four points. Other polls are similar. It looks bad for Biden right now. There's a lot of time between now and the election, but there's only a tiny percentage of people who might go one way or the other, and they're the ones who are gonna decide the election, one way or the other.Quote: SOOPOOThere are enough people who despite hating everything about the Democrat party just can’t find a way to vote for Trump. And that number is continually growing....I think the number of people who voted Biden last election that will switch to Trump is negligible. link to original post
Quote: MichaelBluejayFor sure. I use the game theory tactic of betting on the outcome I *don't* want, anyway. That way I kind of win either way: I either get the outcome I wanted, or I get cash as a consolation prize. If you bet on what you *do* want to happen, you either win twice or not at all. It's why I bet on Trump to win in 2016, even though polls suggested he had only a 1/3 chance of winning.Quote: SOOPOOIf Trump is the nominee you and I will be doing some betting.
Well, not according to the polls. The latest poll (Economist, 8/29) has Trump at +1, which means, when considering Republicans' advantage with the electoral college, Biden is trailing by about four points. Other polls are similar. It looks bad for Biden right now. There's a lot of time between now and the election, but there's only a tiny percentage of people who might go one way or the other, and they're the ones who are gonna decide the election, one way or the other.Quote: SOOPOOThere are enough people who despite hating everything about the Democrat party just can’t find a way to vote for Trump. And that number is continually growing....I think the number of people who voted Biden last election that will switch to Trump is negligible. link to original post
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Do we have any swing state polls yet?
Why don't you click the link I dropped (and someone repeated) above and see for yourself?Quote: GenoDRPhDo we have any swing state polls yet?
Quote: MichaelBluejayThe latest polls (8/30) have Trump at even or +1 vs. Biden, which means, after factoring in the electoral college, Trump is still 2-3 points ahead.
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With the election still 14 months away, this is all of course meaningless. It's the polls one year from now that you want to look at. Report came out today that said Joe Biden has spent 40% of his first term on vacation. This is a sly move on his part to make people think he's not really running and then next year he'll only take 30% of his time on vacation and he'll kill it on the campaign trail with that extra 10%.
"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."
Quote: DRichIf we considered this would it change the odds of any candidate in the 2024 election?
"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."
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Luckily no candidate that I know of has been charged with insurrection. You know something we don't know?
