Presidential Election Betting

Hi,

In the upcoming 2020 Election, there are two sportsbooks*** with the following odds below:

Book A has Joe Biden to win 2020 Election @ +500 ($6.00)
Book B has field vs Joe Biden @ -335.
Edge: about +6.75%

***: Book A is in AUD, and Book B is in USD.

Do you think there is more "value" in betting Joe @ $6 or field @ -335, since I don't think there is enough edge to overcome the currency exchange costs, (if i bet on both outcomes)?

thanks

It's not really knowable at this point. But here's my take anyway.

I was 100% sure that a black dude named Barak Hussein Obama, running as a Democrat, could not become president. (I figured a pre-disgraced Colin Powell as a Rep would have a shot. But LOL at this Barak guy.)

Then, I was 100% sure that a doofus reality TV star with no political experience would never be allowed to win the Republican nomination, particularly because he opposed The Party on issues that were very important to them, like trade. I was sure they'd figure out some way to undermine him.

So... probably do the opposite of what I say.

But, I see Biden kind of as Hillary 2.0. He is a corporate/party shill who openly opposes the interests of most voters. (Pro war. Pro mass incarceration. Pro Wall Street. Anti health care. Pro student debt. etc. etc.) While Hillary was a black hole of charisma, Biden is pretty charming. But this is offset by all the videos of him licking little girls on the forehead.

I'd make him a narrow favorite over Trump. He just isn't as repugnant a human being as Hillary, so voting for him wouldn't be quite as agonizing. He is well ahead of Trump in polls. Trump has alienated a lot of people outside of his hard core base. Also, Biden agrees with moderate Republicans on more issues than not. So those put off by Trump's boorishness, economic polcies and whatever could conceivably cross over.

But when I searched for the polls I saw an NYT article called, "Does Anyone Actually Want Biden To Be President?" That's sort of his problem. There are a few, older, Democrats who are loyal to the party in the way one is loyal to a sports team and they are the only ones who like Biden and Hillary. Aprox zero people under 40 like them. They have no message, no appeal and openly run on policies that are hostile to their own base.

So, Biden would suffer from the same problem Hillary did in that, even people who prefer him, will not be pumped up to go out and vote. "I'm a POS, but at least I'm not that other POS," just isn't a very compelling message.

I think it's going to be MUCH harder for the Dems to rig the primaries this time around. The cat's out of the bag. The initial primaries aren't going to just be between the pre chosen candidate and a couple guys nobody has heard of yet. The premise that a "qualified" shill has to be the nominee because their are "electable" was utterly discredited in the most recent election. It was proven that nobody is less electable. And you've got 4 more years of old people who rely on newspapers dying off and 4 more years of young people who can find their own info becoming voters.

Quote: Rigondeaux

It's not really knowable at this point. But here's my take anyway.

I was 100% sure that a black dude named Barak Hussein Obama, running as a Democrat, could not become president. (I figured a pre-disgraced Colin Powell as a Rep would have a shot. But LOL at this Barak guy.)

Then, I was 100% sure that a doofus reality TV star with no political experience would never be allowed to win the Republican nomination, particularly because he opposed The Party on issues that were very important to them, like trade. I was sure they'd figure out some way to undermine him.

So... probably do the opposite of what I say.

But, I see Biden kind of as Hillary 2.0. He is a corporate/party shill who openly opposes the interests of most voters. (Pro war. Pro mass incarceration. Pro Wall Street. Anti health care. Pro student debt. etc. etc.) While Hillary was a black hole of charisma, Biden is pretty charming. But this is offset by all the videos of him licking little girls on the forehead.

I'd make him a narrow favorite over Trump. He just isn't as repugnant a human being as Hillary, so voting for him wouldn't be quite as agonizing. He is well ahead of Trump in polls. Trump has alienated a lot of people outside of his hard core base. Also, Biden agrees with moderate Republicans on more issues than not. So those put off by Trump's boorishness, economic polcies and whatever could conceivably cross over.

But when I searched for the polls I saw an NYT article called, "Does Anyone Actually Want Biden To Be President?" That's sort of his problem. There are a few, older, Democrats who are loyal to the party in the way one is loyal to a sports team and they are the only ones who like Biden and Hillary. Aprox zero people under 40 like them. They have no message, no appeal and openly run on policies that are hostile to their own base.

So, Biden would suffer from the same problem Hillary did in that, even people who prefer him, will not be pumped up to go out and vote. "I'm a POS, but at least I'm not that other POS," just isn't a very compelling message.

I think it's going to be MUCH harder for the Dems to rig the primaries this time around. The cat's out of the bag. The initial primaries aren't going to just be between the pre chosen candidate and a couple guys nobody has heard of yet. The premise that a "qualified" shill has to be the nominee because their are "electable" was utterly discredited in the most recent election. It was proven that nobody is less electable. And you've got 4 more years of old people who rely on newspapers dying off and 4 more years of young people who can find their own info becoming voters.

I think a lot of what happens will depend on several things.

If Biden continues to dominate, who he picks for a running mate will become a critical factor.

If I were Biden, and continuing to lead into Super Tuesday, I would pick Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren for a running mate.

Either one is most likely to be replaced by another Democrat if they are elected, holding that Senate seat.

Either one is more progressive than Biden, and both appeal to the Dem base.

IMO, the Dems need to be very careful to keep and increase their Senate seats. As bad as Trump is, the enabling of the Republican Senate has magnified his excesses. So otherwise worthy candidates in purple states, like Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet (two I like very much), are needed to stay in the Senate.

Pete Buttigieg is a real wild card. I don't know how to figure him into this. I hope to God they get Bernie out of the way - what a nightmare he is. I don't see Beto or Booker or any of the others to be a serious factor by next spring. Of course, I could be wrong.

Biden should not go with Warren that’s a huge mistake I think, Warren is simply too old to pair with him that would bury his ticket with independent younger voters who will just end up staying home then IMO. She’s not THAT old herself, it’s that Biden’s too old and then you’ve got two people 70+ on the same ticket one closer to 80 that is just crazy and off putting to think about. And the two things she’s currently best known for to people who don’t know her that well are lying or intentionally misleading about her heritage and her batshit crazy student loan forgiveness proposal.

To continue the plan of Zionism : Bet on trump

To contiue with Hillary's plan and zionism : Bet on Biden

Elizabeth Warren needs to go away. She has no shot. Clinton 2.0

Quote: FinsRule

Elizabeth Warren needs to go away. She has no shot. Clinton 2.0

It’s good Hillary isn’t a member here because that is a huge insult to her.

I feel like Biden is a good 10-15 years late to the President game. I'm amazed he's being given such good odds. I think if it came down to Trump and Biden, Trump would win. Biden would get the "anybody but Trump" votes, but not much else.

Quote: ksdjdj

Hi,

In the upcoming 2020 Election, there are two sportsbooks*** with the following odds below:

Book A has Joe Biden to win 2020 Election @ +500 ($6.00)
Book B has field vs Joe Biden @ -335.
Edge: about +6.75%

***: Book A is in AUD, and Book B is in USD.

Do you think there is more "value" in betting Joe @ $6 or field @ -335, since I don't think there is enough edge to overcome the currency exchange costs, (if i bet on both outcomes)?

thanks

Please make sure both are to win the election, not just the nomination. I don't think you can get the 'field' at -335. but I could be wrong.

If those are the actual lines you can get, I would be stunned if 'currency exchange costs' would be high enough to not make the middle +EV. (I guess you also have to figure in the lost opportunity cost of not having the money for 1.5 years, as well as the chance the internet based bet disappears when you win.)

I've got a bet with somebody on here that Trump is not even going to be the Republican nominee for 2020.

Anybody have the odds on that?

Can you imagine the Biden/Warren ticket, two white people in their 70’s? That’s everything a not insignificant segment of the left is automatically prejudiced against, may as well just hand another four years to trump.

Quote: mcallister3200

Can you imagine the Biden/Warren ticket, two white people in their 70’s? That’s everything a not insignificant segment of the left is automatically prejudiced against, may as well just hand another four years to trump.

Well, it would be two white people in their 70's vs. a white man in his 70's and a white man in his 60's.

If it came down to that, that segment of the left would still go with Biden/Warren, based on purely political lines. The fact that one of them is a woman would definitely mitigate the age thing for a lot of people.

They have to vote or not vote 3rd party in the first place for that to happen, you’re pushing them to stay home or vote for a no chancer like I probably will (libertarian and I’m not voting for anyone in their 70’s automatically.)

Quote: Boz

It’s good Hillary isn’t a member here because that is a huge insult to her.

Its a good thing Trump isn't a member here because he would be nuked in a nanosecond
Speaks volumes that the President of the United States is such a troll, he could never post on this board due to all the insults he posts
sad

Yes, but we can talk about election odds without getting too political.

Quote: mcallister3200

Can you imagine the Biden/Warren ticket, two white people in their 70’s? That’s everything a not insignificant segment of the left is automatically prejudiced against, may as well just hand another four years to trump.

I agree. However, Warren is leading heavily among black women, ahead of Harris, Booker, all the others. Biden has the Obama aura, so he can do no wrong atm. They show up heavily to vote, and they bring their men. So I had to include her - that's a large component of the Democratic party.

Quote: TigerWu

Well, it would be two white people in their 70's vs. a white man in his 70's and a white man in his 60's.

If it came down to that, that segment of the left would still go with Biden/Warren, based on purely political lines. The fact that one of them is a woman would definitely mitigate the age thing for a lot of people.

If someone is suggesting some pair of candidates from the left would be enough to convince me to vote for Trump or stay home they would be wrong.

I'm happy to vote for Biden even if he dies in office a month later from old age.

Quote: TigerWu

I've got a bet with somebody on here that Trump is not even going to be the Republican nominee for 2020.

Anybody have the odds on that?

I’m interested. Odds.

A few interesting odds.

5Dimes. Trump Rep Nom yes -1110 no 625

Prez: Trump 110 Biden 315 Harris 1200 bernie 700

betonline : Trump Prez +100. Biden +300. Bernie 1000 Haris 1400

So based on that, I would take Biden +500.

Quote: Rigondeaux

So based on that, I would take Biden +500.

Looks good on paper😂😂🤣😂

I need Trump at about +200 to make a bet

The Democratic nominee need bout +69000

Wait, where's EvenBob? He needs to give us the odds on Hillary running for President... He's made it sound like the lock of the week...

Quote: MaxPen

Looks good on paper😂😂🤣😂

Have you made any bets that Donald will win the 2020 popular vote yet?

Quote: beachbumbabs

I agree. However, Warren is leading heavily among black women, ahead of Harris, Booker, all the others. Biden has the Obama aura, so he can do no wrong atm. They show up heavily to vote, and they bring their men. So I had to include her - that's a large component of the Democratic party.

Not a popular opinion, and at the risk of being called everything.

What is your definition of “large component “ with facts backing it up?

What is “heavily “


What percentage of Black Female voters bring “ their men”?

Not trying to be a d@@k but I wonder if this demographic is enough to change an election in PA, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina.

You may be right, but it seems like a stretch.

Quote: ams288

Have you made any bets that Donald will win the 2020 popular vote yet?

Who the F would do that? The illegals too stupid to watch the news always show up in CA, WA and OR to vote too stupid to understand their Presidential vote is 100% WORTHLESS.

Same goes for conservatives too stupid to leave these 3rd World Sh####les to move to states where their votes matter.

Quote: ams288

Have you made any bets that Donald will win the 2020 popular vote yet?

I haven't found anything worthwhile this time around. Yet. Plus I'm not surrounded by a bunch of rich liberals anymore.

Quote: Boz

Not trying to be a d@@k but I wonder if this demographic is enough to change an election in PA, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina.

I assume you mean the primaries? Because expecting Blacks to vote anything but Democrat is living on another planet. Trump might pick up a few who realize the Democrat Party treats them so awful, but most are a lock no matter what.

Blacks = 25% or so of the Democrat vote. So the Black females are 13% or so, maybe a little more given how many Black men cannot vote due to felony records. PA/FL/OH/MI are pretty much normal demographic of Blacks about 12-13% of the population. WI probably less and NC much more.

IMHO, the Black primary vote, except for Obama an understandable exception, seems to just go to the front runner/anointed one. Mondale/Dukakis/Clinton/Gore/Kerry. Maybe Jesse Jackson peeled off some, but he was never a serious contender. Who else seriously pulled enough of the Black primary vote to matter? Sharpton was not serious. Jackson-Lee dropped out before the first vote her candidacy was such a joke.

Obama of course pulled enough to flip things from the anointed candidate. Clearly a special case. Without the hold he had on the young voter, he would have lost to Hillary.

Yes, a stretch.

Quote: Boz

Not a popular opinion, and at the risk of being called everything.

What is your definition of “large component “ with facts backing it up?

What is “heavily “


What percentage of Black Female voters bring “ their men”?

Not trying to be a d@@k but I wonder if this demographic is enough to change an election in PA, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina.

You may be right, but it seems like a stretch.

Black women are "Woke". Which translates to "severely pi55ed". In the special election of Alabama, they turned out over 75% if their demographic. In 2018 in general, they turned out over 55% of eligible voters, their highest midterm turnout since the statistic was tracked.

Add to that women in general. Y'all mocked us when we marched 1/21/17. Bad move. And only made worse with child separation policies, threatening healthcare, lousy education policies, and trying to crush abortion rights. People are ANGRY. Haven't seen this since the 60s, and I think it's worse now than it was then.

Quote: Boz

Who the F would do that? The illegals too stupid to watch the news always show up in CA, WA and OR to vote too stupid to understand their Presidential vote is 100% WORTHLESS.

Same goes for conservatives too stupid to leave these 3rd World Sh####les to move to states where their votes matter.

Not true this year. CA moved up their primary to Super Tuesday. CA will be essential in determining the Dem nominee. And personally, I don't think it will be Biden. But he's sure strong right now.

I'd take the field against Biden. It's a long time to lock up your money though.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Black women are "Woke". Which translates to "severely pi55ed". In the special election of Alabama, they turned out over 75% if their demographic. In 2018 in general, they turned out over 55% of eligible voters, their highest midterm turnout since the statistic was tracked.

Add to that women in general. Y'all mocked us when we marched 1/21/17. Bad move. And only made worse with child separation policies, threatening healthcare, lousy education policies, and trying to crush abortion rights. People are ANGRY. Haven't seen this since the 60s, and I think it's worse now than it was then.

Y’all? Really?

Quote: Boz

Y’all? Really?

Well, liberal women are angry. But liberal women are always angry and miserable at something. I know Trump loving women and Trump hating women. I can tell you which are more pleasant to be around.

Quote: TigerWu

I feel like Biden is a good 10-15 years late to the President game. I'm amazed he's being given such good odds. I think if it came down to Trump and Biden, Trump would win. Biden would get the "anybody but Trump" votes, but not much else.

The reason Biden is the early frontrunner comes down to one thing: electability. Most people see him as the most electable.

There was a Quinnipiac poll of PA showing him leading Donny 53%-42% there.

(Yes, I know, it’s way too early to take polls like that seriously).

Biden isn’t my first choice by any means. But at this point if the Dems want to run Jimmy Carter for a 2nd term I’ll vote for it.

Quote: AZDuffman

Well, liberal women are angry. But liberal women are always angry and miserable at something. I know Trump loving women and Trump hating women. I can tell you which are more pleasant to be around.

Well, you know that old saying...

If you walk around smelling dog s*** all day, you might want to check your shoes.

Translation:

I know Trump loving women and Trump hating women... I don't find either demographic unpleasant to be around based on that qualification. If every Trump hating woman is unpleasant for you to be around, you might want to take a good long look at yourself, because the problem is with YOU, not them.

Then again, I know how far-righties never take responsibility for their actions, and like to blame other people for EVERYTHING that's wrong in their lives, so I guess I can't really expect them to suddenly become introspective as to why they have such problems with people who don't believe the same things they do.

Good luck, though...

Quote: TigerWu

Well, you know that old saying...

If you walk around smelling dog s*** all day, you might want to check your shoes.

Translation:

I know Trump loving women and Trump hating women... I don't find either demographic unpleasant to be around based on that qualification. If every Trump hating woman is unpleasant for you to be around, you might want to take a good long look at yourself, because the problem is with YOU, not them.

I'm sure there are a few pleasant ones, but the majority are angry and miserable. They wear ****y hats and complain they did not get their way. They give the "woman-man-fish-bicycle" line. At the end of the day you will probably find many crying themselves to sleep they are so miserable.

Quote:

Then again, I know how far-righties never take responsibility for their actions, and like to blame other people for EVERYTHING that's wrong in their lives, so I guess I can't really expect them to suddenly become introspective as to why they have such problems with people who don't believe the same things they do.

Good luck, though...

Where do you get that one from? The left is the one blaming Trump for all their ills. It is the lefties who far more than righties who refuse to associate with people who do not share their beliefs. It is the lefties needing safe-spaces. Lefties who shout down conservative speakers on college campuses nationwide. Lefties who complain they need the minimum wage raised to improve their lives.

Please!

Quote: AZDuffman

I'm sure there are a few pleasant ones, but the majority are angry and miserable. They wear ****y hats and complain they did not get their way. They give the "woman-man-fish-bicycle" line. At the end of the day you will probably find many crying themselves to sleep they are so miserable.



Where do you get that one from? The left is the one blaming Trump for all their ills. It is the lefties who far more than righties who refuse to associate with people who do not share their beliefs. It is the lefties needing safe-spaces. Lefties who shout down conservative speakers on college campuses nationwide. Lefties who complain they need the minimum wage raised to improve their lives.

Please!

Oh, dear God. Such projection. Such skewing of reality. Smh, as somebody likes to say. And yes, I do think you believe your nonsense. That doesn't justify it.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Oh, dear God. Such projection. Such skewing of reality. Smh, as somebody likes to say. And yes, I do think you believe your nonsense. That doesn't justify it.

Red Pill life is hard.

Thanks for all the posts.
Sorry for the late reply (been having terrible migraines recently) .

I decided to take "Field wins Presidential Election" @ -335 "vs Joe Biden" .
One of the reasons was the odds were pretty similar for betting on Joe to win @ around $6.00 (at three different sports books).

I'm already smelling Trump beats Biden. The liberal side of the Democratic party will be split among too many people while Biden will have a lock on the moderates. In the general election -- I'll say it again, the more charismatic candidate has won in every election since the television age, which I start at 1960.

Quote: Wizard

I'm already smelling Trump beats Biden. The liberal side of the Democratic party will be split among too many people while Biden will have a lock on the moderates. In the general election -- I'll say it again, the more charismatic candidate has won in every election since the television age, which I start at 1960.

If the Ole' HillDog steps into the race will that sway your opinion any?

Quote: beachbumbabs

Pete Buttigieg is a real wild card. I don't know how to figure him into this.

You could figure him a homosexual, that's how you figure him into this. An avowed homosexual president, sleeping with his boyfriend in the White House? Good luck with that.

Quote: bobbartop

You could figure him a homosexual, that's how you figure him into this. An avowed homosexual president, sleeping with his boyfriend in the White House? Good luck with that.

What's the problem with that? How about focus on whether a candidate can do the job.

What are the chances of Trump actually intentionally losing. I know the guy loves to win... but this presidency thing is friken out of control with the two parties. If push comes to shove and he has to expose his finances and tax returns, that may be the one thing that gets him to lay down. He can't stand to be exposed as less than what he tries to perceive to be , financially speaking.

Ive always said he is a sophisticated shyster... and that he is. He is not the most moral individual in the world and I would never want to do business with him, nor have a personal relationship with him. That being said, you got to give the guy some credit for actually taking a stand and getting things done, or at least trying to.

My vote goes to Howard Schultz! I hope he enters the race.

Quote: bobbartop

You could figure him a homosexual, that's how you figure him into this. An avowed homosexual president, sleeping with his boyfriend in the White House? Good luck with that.

Biden is polling very well with blacks because of the Obama legacy. He's not polling that well with young people. Buttigieg IS polling well with youth and educated people, and he's brilliant, well-spoken, a veteran. He could end up as the best VP choice paired with Biden or one of several women.

They (democrats) are writing off the older straight white man vote anyway. The rest of us don't care who he sleeps with. And a significant amount of younger people will see a guy who is more than competent, cutting-edge, their generation of leader.

IMO, the acid test will be whether the POC can support a ticket with him as an undercard, because religious older POC are strongly opposed to LGBT people. It really shook them when Obama supported legal marriage in early 2012.

A lot will depend on the series of debates, in which he can easily come off as the smartest, most composed, and competent person on the stage....or not.

Quote: rsactuary

What's the problem with that? How about focus on whether a candidate can do the job.

Did I say there was a problem with that? The only problem with that is for the candidate, if he thinks he has any real chance of winning while being out of the closet. It ain't going to happen. Impossible. Barbara said he's a "wild card". There's nothing wild card about it. Flat out impossible.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Biden is polling very well with blacks because of the Obama legacy. He's not polling that well with young people. Buttigieg IS polling well with youth and educated people, and he's brilliant, well-spoken, a veteran. He could end up as the best VP choice paired with Biden or one of several women.

They (democrats) are writing off the older straight white man vote anyway. The rest of us don't care who he sleeps with. And a significant amount of younger people will see a guy who is more than competent, cutting-edge, their generation of leader.

IMO, the acid test will be whether the POC can support a ticket with him as an undercard, because religious older POC are strongly opposed to LGBT people. It really shook them when Obama supported legal marriage in early 2012.

A lot will depend on the series of debates, in which he can easily come off as the smartest, most composed, and competent person on the stage....or not.

Are we talking about the same country, the United States presidential election? C'mon, an openly gay candidate? This is just unrealistic fantasy talk. You're a smart person, where do you get this stuff?

Quote: bobbartop

Are we talking about the same country, the United States presidential election? C'mon, an openly gay candidate? This is just unrealistic fantasy talk. You're a smart person, where do you get this stuff?

I believe I said something like this before Obama won his first term......

"Are we talking about the same country, the United States presidential election? C'mon, a black candidate? This is just unrealistic fantasy talk. You're a smart person, where do you get this stuff?"

I think I was proven wrong........

Quote: bobbartop

Are we talking about the same country, the United States presidential election? C'mon, an openly gay candidate? This is just unrealistic fantasy talk. You're a smart person, where do you get this stuff?

I'm agreeing with you that it's impossible for Mayor Pete to be the Presidential candidate. But he has a shot, better than most, to be selected as VP, depending on who the candidate ends up being. He brings a relatively large demographic and balance to other candidates. Biden is the only male he would compliment, IMO, but he also fits well with Harris, Klobuchar, and Warren.

I guess we'll all find out. First debates only about 3 weeks out.

Quote: SOOPOO

I believe I said something like this before Obama won his first term......

"Are we talking about the same country, the United States presidential election? C'mon, a black candidate? This is just unrealistic fantasy talk. You're a smart person, where do you get this stuff?"

I think I was proven wrong........

lol Same here. But I lost a few hundred bucks betting that America was NOT ready for a black president. WRONG! Then like an idiot, I said there is no way America will elect a black president twice in a row. And I bet the same few hundred again so I could recover my loss. Well guess what, I'm going to bet $600 that America will NOT elect a gay president. I'VE GOT TO GET EVEN.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm agreeing with you that it's impossible for Mayor Pete to be the Presidential candidate. But he has a shot, better than most, to be selected as VP, depending on who the candidate ends up being. He brings a relatively large demographic and balance to other candidates. Biden is the only male he would compliment, IMO, but he also fits well with Harris, Klobuchar, and Warren.

Ok, I'm sorry, I misread you. A gay VP? Well, maybe.

But Harris, Warren? A woman? Where do you get this stuff?