FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 15th, 2019 at 4:42:24 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Equibase PPs for the Risen Star Stks, an 8.5 furlong $400k Grade II at Fairgrounds in New Orleans, with War of Will hung out wide in post #14. This EQB "Race of the Week" pdf file is free w/ no account login:

http://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf



Talk about an impossible race.

I donít think thereís a toss in the whole field.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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February 15th, 2019 at 7:20:50 AM permalink
FinsRule. Here's good joss for your race tomorrow! Very excited for you.

I understand that I've missed the Future Pool 2 for KD. But can I just walk in to a track/sportsbook and structure my own futures bet now? I'm interested in wheeling or boxing 5 horses I like in exacta/trifecta/superfecta combinations. If I can, do the odds I buy now stand, or do they vary with the parimutuel movement as horses' odds change?

If not now, when?

Thanks in advance.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 15th, 2019 at 12:02:46 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Equibase PPs for the Risen Star Stks, an 8.5 furlong $400k Grade II at Fairgrounds in New Orleans, with War of Will hung out wide in post #14. This EQB "Race of the Week" pdf file is free w/ no account login:
http://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf

Difficult post for War of Will, but he has done nothing wrong in his last 2 events. Pace was modest in the Lecomte but he is the one to beat tomorrow IMO. I would also give the #1 another chance after a stumble at the start in the Lecomte.

Quote: FinsRule

Talk about an impossible race.
I donít think thereís a toss in the whole field.

Hard one to handicap for sure. It seemed unusual to see a Baffert runner @ FG (#13 Kingly), but then I noticed he is cross entered into the El Camino Real and will not race in the Risen Star. The Southwest Stakes looks the also looks difficult to predict this long weeekend.

Golden Gate El Camino Real (click on Kingly for pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm

Oaklawn Park Southwest Stakes (Monday - Click on Cutting Humor for pps)"
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Grey Attempt wired the field in the one mile Smarty Jones. He has the rail and easily could be on the lead again. But he is now going an extra 1/16 of a mile and giving up 5 pounds to most in the field.
GLTA
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
February 15th, 2019 at 12:27:42 PM permalink
What you can buy now from multiple sportsbooks, but not from tracks located where sports bets are not legal, will be individual tickets to win. You won't be able to do exactas from the books. Maybe they'll have some eccentric propositions, but they generally start to offer those closer to the event, like they do leading up to the Super Bowl and suchlike. These future book bets to win are generally available from Las Vegas books on a much larger number of nominees from the crop of 3 year-olds who are technically eligible for the event than those 22 or 23 presumed to be most likely who are selected to be included in the parimutual pools, but the choices will not include a "field" bet on "all-others." I would guess that at least one or two of the newly established legal New Jersey books might be doing the same.

These sportsbook tickets are not parimutual. They are fixed odds sports bets. Just like buying a ticket from a sportsbook on who will win some other future sporting event, and only legal where general sports betting is legalized. And there will be some differences in those fixed odds offered from different books. There will be a parimutual Pool 3 available through tracks and national advance deposit horseracing account betting as well as at sportsbooks, on March 8-10, along with a Kentucky Oaks pool for fillies open on those days. And then a final Pool 4 this year April 5-7.
Quote: beachbumbabs

FinsRule. Here's good joss for your race tomorrow! Very excited for you.

I understand that I've missed the Future Pool 2 for KD. But can I just walk in to a track/sportsbook and structure my own futures bet now? I'm interested in wheeling or boxing 5 horses I like in exacta/trifecta/superfecta combinations. If I can, do the odds I buy now stand, or do they vary with the parimutuel movement as horses' odds change?

If not now, when?

Thanks in advance.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 15, 2019
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 15th, 2019 at 1:53:33 PM permalink
the twinspires.com Derby futures wagering does offer exacta wagering, it is parimutuel and it features some 𝐠𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜 payouts
wow, I really sound like some kind of pathetic sucker with that remark
reminds me of when I used to go to the track before computer wagering and there were always guys looking at the tote and saying 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬
it didn't matter to these guys if the numbers horse was so slow that I might have beat him for 40 yards in my younger days (not really)
this is how pool 2 closed on the exacta wagering
finger stretch to see the small print or use this link:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/2018-19_DFW_Pool_2__2_Ex_Probables.pdf
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 15, 2019
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 15th, 2019 at 2:43:36 PM permalink
EDIT to add: Ah, now I see where you also linked to the very same original file for the exacta grid at the KDFW site as I did below. It is just a matter of calling it TwinSpires. A lot of people won't have access to TwinSpires, but can bet into these Churchill parimutual pools, when open, through many other sources. Nevada is one of the places where people won't be able to get TwinSpires.

ORIGINAL REPLY:

Yes, but I'm sure you don't want to imply that it is a TwinSpires pool, and that someone needs to go to them for it or that it is theirs. This will probably sound picky or unintentionally quarrelous, but it is a distinction that actually can matter.

That's the Churchill Downs parimutual Derby Future Wager exacta grid from Pool 2. It is not specifically a TwinSpires thing. TwinSpires happens to be one of the many parimutual wagering platforms transmitting wagers from its customers into these parimutual pools, when open. But it isn't their wager or their pool you are looking at there. TwinSpires just sends the wagers to them, along with everyone else doing the same. As you probably already know, TwinSpires happens to be an ADW (advance deposit account wagering) provider that's owned by CDI, which is also the parent company of the Churchill Downs track in Louisville. But you bet into the Churchill Downs pool from any track or off-track betting site or other ADW or book that participates with wagering transmitted through the nationwide hub, which is pretty nearly all of them. You don't have to go to TwinSpires, or be in one of the jurisdictions where they operate. There are states where they don't.

Here is the public site for the future wager at the link below, with the exacta grids for the pools that have been held. They are the source for the numbers on that TwinSpires screen grab above, and will be much easier to read. Follow the links for whichever pool you want to see: The numbers on the grid will be the same as was shown above, but you can manipulate the display of the PDF with your reader/browser, and/or download to view as you wish or put in a spreadsheet (I do) to manipulate and calculate the price of tea in China or print to fold, spindle, mutilate, and whisper to a pair of dice over or whatever.

Main KDFW site, with links to specific pool information & data:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager

KDFW specific Pool #2 page:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-2

PDF of final Pool 2 exacta grid:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/2018-19_DFW_Pool_2__2_Ex_Probables.pdf
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 15, 2019
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 16th, 2019 at 1:35:05 AM permalink
Dead - how come they call the exacta payouts "probables?"
the pool is closed - doesn't that mean they should be the exact payouts?

is it just a mistake, bad wording? using the same wording as on everyday tote screens?

oh, I think I figured it out.

they were "probables" until the pool closed. they just didn't change the wording. I think.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 16, 2019
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 16th, 2019 at 2:29:43 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Dead - how come they call the exacta payouts "probables?"
the pool is finished - doesn't that mean they should be the exact payouts?

is it just a mistake, bad wording? using the same wording as on everyday tote screens?

oh, I think I figured it out.

they were "probables" until the pool was finished. they just didn't change the wording. I think.

I've noticed the same, and I *think* the answers are (my "probable answers"): yes they should, yes, yes, and yes; also yes. IMO. And then, finally a definite yes, they did not change it when it went from live wagering to closed. (my "final fixed answer").

And I think maybe I recall noticing something like that in other years. Specifically for the exactas, IIRC. I imagine it could actually confuse a few people into thinking it was still a live dynamic pool with the potential to change. But then they wouldn't be able to act on that idea.

But there's another page that's correctly labeled "Final Odds & Will Pays" for the win pool: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/20190210-KDFW-Final-Odds-Pool-2.pdf

I'll speculate that maybe the formatting for displaying such a big exacta grid on the web is kinda tricky to edit anything without making a mess. But that's called guessing; I actually have no idea about doing fancy web page design & file display type stuff.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 16, 2019
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 16th, 2019 at 4:20:17 AM permalink
yeah, when money is involved you're expecting the language to be 100% accurate
you wouldn't expect a bank to send you a credit card statement saying your "estimated" minimum payment is XYZ

seems kind of sloppy
no big deal - whatever
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 16th, 2019 at 6:45:21 PM permalink
The winner of the feature at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May will be... El Camino Real result chart ...not found here. Very not here. Enough of the limp cheese sticks.


On to the main course. Fractional times of the Fairgrounds events at 1-1/16 mile (8.5f):

2 Frlg-4 Frlg-6 Frlgs--1 Mile---Finish---Late stretch splits
23.80 47.89 1:13.11 1:38.39 1:45.04 . (25.28) (6.65) Maiden Special Weight, 3y/o
25.93 50.74 1:14.82 1:39.08 1:45.46 . (24.26) (6.38) Mineshaft Hdcp, Grade 3, 4y/o+ Beyer: 97
24.02 47.81 1:12.45 1:37.89 1:44.74 . (25.44) (6.85) Rachel Alexandra Stks, Grade 2, 3y/o fillies, Beyer: 91
23.71 47.36 1:12.20 1:37.87 1:44.59 . (25.67) (6.72) Risen Star Stks, Grade 2, 3y/o Beyer: 92

Red highlight = the race producing the quickest clocking for the distance at that pole or split. But I note the interesting adjustments by the Beyer crew resulting in a significantly higher figure for the slower final time in the Gr. 3 Handicap for fully mature males.

Hmmm. War of Will @ Risen Star result chart
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 16, 2019

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