2019 Kentucky Derby & Triple Crown classics

Besides the two in my futures stable (Scroll & Global) the other two that look potentially most live to me in this race are Bourbon War or Vekoma, depending on how the pace develops. Loading now.

EDIT: I really didn't see McGaughey's colt doing that. Still don't, and he's probably still not interesting as a contender for ten furlongs in May at CD to me, much as I respect the connections. Bet small here, just for sporting interest, but Shug's training prowess screwed me out of having everything on the board every which way separately & together. *snivel* *whine* *soiled-hanky-toss* Next!

Tampa (Bay Derby) & Aqueduct (Gotham) & Santa Anita (San Felipe) & even Turfway (Jeff Ruby) & Churchill's KDFW Pool #3 open on Fri-Sun are on tap next weekend.

If I had to pick one from that race, I’m picking bourbon war

IMO Bourbon War ran well and his connections should be pleased, though the race did set up perfectly for him. For Hidden Scroll, I don't think it was a surprising race under the circumstances. If he's going to progress to take a step up off this experience, and I think he may, he'll need to learn to ration his considerable assets to become more tactical. Maybe still on this path, maybe not.

Global Campaign was the biggest disappointment to me. His effort was tactically quite peculiar for him. Producing a running line more like what Code of Honor did would've been the likely expected plan for that one, setting up in position for a stretch run that's right in his natural wheelhouse, and more likely to be productive in this field today. I wouldn't necessarily write him off, provided I hear something about Luis Saez getting taken out behind the barn for a good paddling, or getting fired. His mount shouldn't have been too fresh & pulling, in light of his GP race 3 weeks ago at the distance. At this point in his riding career & given his extensive local riding history he should be intuitively very aware of the pace at this track at any distance, with an accurate internal tick-tock going on as second nature without even needing a glance at any mechanical timer.

Overall, without yet parsing out each individual performance, that was not a strongly contested finish at all, and it couldn't be. Staggering home was just about the only possible end of this race, given the thermonuclear beginning & volcanic middle.

2 Frlg--4 Frlg--6 Frlg--1 Mile--8.5 Frlg - (final split last 1/2 furlong to wire)
24.25 49.62 1:13.60 1:37.00 1:43.01 (6.01) Maiden Special, 3y/o, Fillies
24.03 48.36 1:12.80 1:38.17 1:44.84 (6.67) Maiden Special, 3y/o
22.80 45.69 1:10.42 1:36.84 1:43.85 (7.01) Fountain of Youth, $400k Gr. 2, 3/yo
22.56 45.26 1:09.53..( N/A )...(N/A)...(N/A) GP Sprint Stakes, $100k, Gr. 3, 4y/o+ <-<-

Bear in mind that the first quarter at 8.5f GP routes involves running into the turn right away, while the first quarter of the sprint was a straight run down the backstretch which is far less taxing & should be much quicker. So the early fractions of the FoY were not just very fast for the distance on this surface, they were sizzling to a degree that was way beyond far too hot at any level of 2-turn route competition, as well as being completely absurd for any peers in the same 3y/o restricted age cohort. And not only that, but the final time of that graded stakes for older fully mature sprinters was actually the only faster six furlong time at any distance at all in any company, including all other sprints.

I think the first most essential dominant factor for an evaluation of anyone's performance in this event is that contesting, pressing, or even closely stalking that pace was simply suicidal. It would've been severely compromising for an experienced field of fully mature Grade 1 winners, let alone for these colts still in their early adolescence. You just don't do 'forty-five & change' in two turn events on the Gulfstream surface.

EDIT: Corrections & deletions made after publication of final chart, for fixing typo in first reports of 4f fraction.

Beyer: 95

the first image is the winning Beyers for the Preakness from 1987 to 2009
the 2nd image is the best Beyers for 3 year olds this year thru March 2
since Hidden Scroll's big Beyer now seems suspect (may have been due to an easy trip loose on the lead and loving the slop)
and Maximum Security's big Beyer was at just 7 furlongs - so who knows - he's never run anything other than a sprint
right now the speed of this crop does not look at all impressive to me
Justify got a 103 in the KY Derby and a 107 in the Santa Anita Derby
not much time left for these colts to improve before the Derby but it is possible they will
(finger stretch to see the numbers better)
Comments?

To me a potential Derby contender running a Beyer figure around the low to mid-90s at these Mile & 1/16th distances in late February to early March is okay. Not terrific, or terrible, but okay. What matters to me now is seeing the right patern of progression developing. If they are the right kind, they'll still be moving up on a pretty steeply sloped growth & developement curve, and weeks will still matter quite a bit in colt years for that kind of individual, like going from high school freshman to the point of being a leader on the school's varsity as a junior and getting early inquiries by college athletic programs. And after this point (following similar 8.5f Gr2/Gr3 “prep” events in next week's round) there can be no training setbacks, regression, or hiccups in form & fitness.

Then in about a month as the calendar flips to April I'd like to see a Derby horse of mine produce a performance at a mile and an eighth that gets a BSF of around 98-103ish. So progressing to about triple digit territory on the Beyer scale, and most importantly being one of the minority in his class who is still clearly benefiting with the additonal weeks & distance. Then if I really have the right sort of animal for this task in my barn, he'd be on a trajectory for further improvement to something in the nieghborhood of 105 to 110 or so going a mile and a quarter two months from now, to have a good shot to get his picture taken in that ten furlong Churhill Downs feature race in early May.

By the way, the result chart is a handy excuse to mention... If I had a prop bet regularly available for using this odd little niche “skill” then pretty soon Steve Wynn would be my gardener & cat butler:

Quote: DrawingDead

...<SNIP>...

Little known fact is that the term "Trained by Jaime Mejia" is actually known as a form of creole-spanglish lingo for "Dead Last" on the streets of Miami. In his favor for anyone expecting a sudden eruption of Mejia competence his FoY entry of Galdiator King has actually won some races in his very busy young life, sprinting as a 2y/o. in 3 routes already, he's only lost by 34, 20, and 28 lengths, so of course after being outfinished in the stretch at 5 furlongs on grass just days ago, Jaime sends him to a Grade 2 Derby qualifying even tomorrow. Have I ever mentioned I'm really good at selecting horses to finish dead last? Not as easy as it sounds, lemme tell ya. Except tomorrow.

Equibase FoY Chart

Quote: Equibase

...empty after half...

Horse Name:Gladiator King ... Fin: 11³³

Footnotes:

...<10 others>...

...GLADIATOR KING vied for the lead with HIDDEN SCROLL in first turn, continued to press the pace through early stages then retreated after half.

I also posted this in the other thread - but I thought important enough to post in 2 places so no one would miss it

incredible - Santa Anita has been shut down
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/03/06/something-is-drastically-wrong-after-horse-die-storied-california-track-shuts-down-racing/?utm_term=.8b62e762de21

Quote: lilredrooster

I also posted this in the other thread - but I thought important enough to post in 2 places so no one would miss it

incredible - Santa Anita has been shut down
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/03/06/something-is-drastically-wrong-after-horse-die-storied-california-track-shuts-down-racing/?utm_term=.8b62e762de21

I think they did the right thing.

wonder how many are Baffert horses. he lost a lot of horses a few years ago. guess we'll find out soon enough

I thought Hidden Scroll ran very well to be anywhere close at the end with those early splits. Crazy fast pace and a very slow finish. Seems like yet another weird Gulfstream Derby prep. If the same horses were to enter and run in the Florida Derby (9F), I would bet Hidden Scroll would be the favorite again...

Super Steed is off the Derby trail. Santa Anita is dealing with track issues and creating problems for Baffert and others. I have not handicapped this weekend's events yet.

Hidden Scroll's splits (all of them) were faster in his maiden race by a lot when he got loose on the lead - he did a mile in 134.82 in his maiden race and 136.84 in the stakes

it looked to me like he didn't like the longer distance and the higher quality horses breathing down his neck

if he can't hold his speed for 8.5 how is he going to hold his speed for 10 furlongs?

I highly doubt he's the real deal

I could be wrong. it wouldn't be the first time

It’s hard to compare times of a one turn and two turn race.

I’ll take the middle ground.

He’s a good horse, not going to win the Derby.

RE: Youth & Scroll

All the "neck breathing" driving the ludicrous two-turn 45-ish & 1:10-sumpin' FoY pace was done by a 132 to 1 shot (how drunk was somebody to bet both their dollars on him?) that after doing his scalded dog imitation allegedly eventually crossed the line sometime that same day, officially finishing 11th out of 11 by over 33 lengths (but who's counting?) at the wire. Sent out by the fabulous Mr. Jaime Mejia, who as I may have mentioned a time or two before this event has displayed a distinctly finite range of training skills that tend to wind them up like a meth tweaker escaping a burning dumpster & then sees them stay on past the half mile pole to win about as often as 10 competently handled horses all jump into the infield together to chase a seagull. So I think it would be unwise to draw definitive conclusions in either direction about those clearly benefiting or compromised by the extremely aberrant race shape that was created. I'd still consider H.Scroll in the category of "could be any kind." That a good thing to say about an adolescent colt. And while a number of racing writers have been calling it a strong performance under the circumstances, and I mostly agree with that, I'm not inclined to either downgrade or upgrade a very tentative estimate of his possible distance talent from that, and though I still see him as live for this, because of the tyranny of the calendar he's down to only one pull of the lever to both learn his job and qualify for the gate draw in his only remaining shot.

RE: Next up

The three Derby "prep" races that will be run tomorrow are the Gotham, the Jeff Ruby, and the Tampa Bay Derby. I think the TAM event has clearly drawn by far the deepest strongest field of these. And it is the also the designated "Race of the Day/Week" for racing fleas wanting to scarf up free PP downloads by both DRF & EQB, as well as through following the entries some of the usual suspects (both Casse & Pletcher @ TAM Race #11) for the BRIS format PP product.

With the uncertain status of Santa Anita's racing schedule, including any eventual rescheduling of the date and possibly also location (possibly Los Alamitos) of the San Felipe that was to be run today, it's likely we'll be seeing some of the top tier 3y/o California stock shipping in to Oaklawn for the Rebel next week. The timing of tomorrow's revised OP entry deadline for their March 16th event works reasonably well for those who were potential classic race contenders that were being brought along in the prep series on the SoCal calendar that's designed to be a path through the April 6th SA Derby. Oaklawn Park management has even floated the possibility of running the Rebel in two heats next weekend if needed. I don't think it'll be needed; the very specific sub-segment of the Cali horse colony checking the whole list of boxes of: being in the age-restricted class but peak-form race-ready, and likely stakes caliber, for classic distance routing, on dirt, that's also suddenly needing to find a spot right now for the middle-distance middle-prep before the bigger prep, isn't that large a group and they won't all ship.

With Pool 3 open now the wagering effect of these extra balls that are up in the air on the west coast will probably be.... I have no idea.

In addition to the elimination of Super Steed already mentioned above, anyone looking at fixed price sportsbook futures should know that Global Campaign is also headed to the farm for a break in his training and is definitely out. And Gray Attempt is declared out of the Rebel, with his trainer saying he has "a minor setback" of an undisclosed nature, but "can still make the Arkansas Derby." In my DrawingDead Trainerspeak ->-> Horseplayer Translation App [patent pending] that means he's effectively 100% out (of being taken seriously) as far as I'm concerned. And if he does show up in the AR Derby in April I hope the check writing owners & their whole posse of family & friends all make sure to get all their partying well & truly done by thoroughly enjoying the pre-race festivities from their VIP box seat, until the starting gate opens.

Gotham:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Gotham19.pdf
I kinda like Haikal in this spot (and not necessarily for the KD). Lots of pacemakers and front runners in this one. Haikal at least has shown he likes the track and can run on from off the pace. He could be outclassed a little, but his "closing" style pps really stand out in this event.
TB Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/TampaBayDerby19.pdf
Only the winner (Well Defined) returns from the local prep (SF Davis) to run in this one. No real opinion on this event, I just look forward to watching Tacitus return to the track.
J Ruby:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/JeffRubySteaks19.pdf
----------

In other news, no San Felipe @ Santa Anita this year. The Rebel @ Oaklawn might swell into 2 races with split $ and split KD points (as DD mentioned). GLTA

I haven't followed the dirt filly division much and almost forgot the parimutual futures pool for the fillies is also taking place this weekend. Of course that would be for wagering on the winner (or the exacta) of the race at Churchill Downs in May currently known as the Kentucky Oaks, but probably soon to be renamed the FinsRule Retirement Fund. Live odds for the Oaks futures:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/oaks-pool

The Honeybee Stakes competitors who are also individual wagering interests in the Oaks future wager pool, with pool program no. & their current pool odds for the Oaks are: #13 Marathon Queen (52-1); #15 Motion Emotion (13-1); and #18 Power Gal (57-1). And having three of them in the gate & not heavily favored at Oaklawn tomorrow probably can be taken to mean it is a real Grade 3.

I like how they call it the Jeff Ruby "Steaks".

I think I may place a wager on Mind Control if I get out to Lone Star Park today.

Quote: DrawingDead

I haven't followed the dirt filly division much and almost forgot the parimutual futures pool for the fillies is also taking place this weekend. Of course that would be for wagering on the winner (or the exacta) of the race at Churchill Downs in May currently known as the Kentucky Oaks, but probably soon to be renamed the FinsRule Retirement Fund. Live odds for the Oaks futures:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/oaks-pool

The Honeybee Stakes competitors who are also individual wagering interests in the Oaks future wager pool, with pool program no. & their current pool odds for the Oaks are: #13 Marathon Queen (52-1); #15 Motion Emotion (13-1); and #18 Power Gal (57-1). And having three of them in the gate & not heavily favored at Oaklawn tomorrow probably can be taken to mean it is a real Grade 3.

This looks like it could be a fiercely competitive race. I really hope Raintree has enough gas in the tank to go this distance. Rooting for you, Fins! If Bloomberg hadn’t closed all the convenient OTBs, I would wager some money on her just to keep a rooting interest in her for ya.

I have nothing cooking in these dirt track middle distance Derby qualifying events today. So sincere good luck with all y'all wagers on these, since your winnings won't involve a single dollar that was ever mine.

At Aqueduct I see six of the eight likely to either come out breathing fire demanding the lead or else pressing that pace. Which occasionally means that some diminutive colorfully attired fellows sitting in the jock's room each silently decides they picture it that way too, and so when the gate opens six guys spend about a minute-thirty sleep-running on the track practically bowing to each other: “...after you Jose...oh no after you Javier...no you first, I insist amigo...” Either way, frying pan or zombie fest, some very weird results that can make toteboards slap themselves in disbelief are sometimes known to happen in these kinds of circumstances. Wake me and my wallet when it's over.

At Turfway's “Steaks” race I guess I'm greatful that neither Alpo or Purina Cat Chow was the high bidder for sponsorship & naming rights over that class act.

At Tampa I'm most interested in closely watching Dream Maker and Tacitus, in that order, to get a read on where they're really at, if they're done playing the part of well dressed but shadowy mystery guests with no visible means of support. In my view either one could be fish or fowl, with something good up their sleeve, or nuttin' at all. But I'll be just window shopping.

Of course between the potential fish fry in Queens and the discount “Steaks” apparently for sale outta the back of a van on the backstretch in Florence, KY, I'll wanna be going to see a filly about a thing down in Hot Springs.

Gotham:
Haikal won. He never looked like the winner, until he did.

TB Derby:
Tacitus won. The final time 1:41.90 seemed very solid. Flameaway won the Challenger a few races earlier in 1:41.89. Track record is 2017- Stanford 1:41.75. Maybe he really is Bill Mott's best Derby chance?

J Ruby:
Somelikeithotbrown won.

Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>...

TB Derby:
Tacitus won. The final time 1:41.90 seemed very solid. Flameaway won the Challenger a few races earlier in 1:41.89. Track record is 2017- Stanford 1:41.75. Maybe he really is Bill Mott's best Derby chance?...

Yes, that Tampa main track is known for usually being one of the most notoriously deep slow surfaces for raw route times on most days. Crude track equalization charts based on simple comparison of par times have it at about 17 old fashioned "fifth-second' ticks slower than US & Canada average, with the same routes at Gulfstream running about 8 ticks slow by the same crude estimates, implying you'd subtract almost two seconds off your 2-turn time going from TAM to GP. So, yes. Pending the serious grind work of brewing a semi-trustworthy variant for that very sexy impressive naked number, among other things.

FWIW, I was doing some cowardly no-bet focused watching of that one in preparation for the possibility, but not expectation, of potentially taking him seriously "if." I'm taking him quite seriously. BTW, I have his weighted pedigree AWD at 7.4f. Orb's number. I know you'll appreciate that thought.

This is only from a first quick-n-dirty cut of some crude raw time comparison and an initial sloppy seat of the pants 'eye-test' trip evaluation, without yet digging into the more thorough job of slicing & dicing, so by all means discount it even more than the usual horsey opinion. But I wanna post the uncooked crumb because I think I might be getting quite near the point of taking a hike from this joint. And I wasn't sure if I'd given you that AWD when you mentioned your interest in him earlier, so there you have it.

Cheers & good luck.

Glad they split the rebel. If anyone but Game Winner and Improbable win, I’d be very surprised.

I don’t think this is a betting weekend.

The "Rebels" certainly look like a Baffert double waiting to happen. It is cool both runners will be running on the same day/at the same distance/carrying the same weight/at the same track. Improbable looks like a heavy favorite, but Galilean might deserve a look. Game Winner also looks like a solid favorite, but he does not really need the points and Omaha Beach is an interesting entry to consider for this event. GLTA

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Rebel19a.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Rebel19b.pdf

Wow! after both favorites lost in the 2 Rebels it really looks wide open now

maybe Dutch all the shots over 6/1 and try to catch a break - gonna need my calculator

on 2nd thought if I do this I'll probably throw out all 40/1 or more



NYRA has a new initiative

they will be offering a Turf Triple Crown (their words) for 3 year old males and 3 year old females


https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/232056/nyra-unveils-turf-triple-series-for-3yos-3yo-fillies

Why did Van Dyke run Improbable 4 wide around both turns?

Quote: aceofspades

Why did Van Dyke run Improbable 4 wide around both turns?

Galilean broke poorly. DVD is inexperienced. He thought Improbable couldn’t be beaten. After the race, I said, looks like Mike Smith has the mount. But then he went and won on Omaha Beach!

Bob needs at least one jockey.

48 days out and this derby is the most wide open since 2011.

Who is the favorite? Omaha Beach? Game Winner? War of Will?

My War Front - Candy Ride Exacta box is looking pretty great. I might make some money this year after all.

Edit - I guess add Improbable and Code of Honor to possible Derby favorites.

If you like a horse, you’re going to get a good price.

maybe for the hardcore only
but this guy has compiled this great (to me) spreadsheet with historical Derby statistics
the link shows more then my picture shows
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14meVH3tXTu6Lb9pgiiP8ouylmSFpsktVWVUNd2eQyzs/edit#gid=0

Hard not to like the Rebel races. The Top 2 in both performed well.

Sunland Derby - Click on Mucho Gusto's pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
Louisiana Derby - Click on War Of WIll's pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/MarkCasse/CASSE+MARK/9999/summary.html

Quote: aceofspades

Why did Van Dyke run Improbable 4 wide around both turns?

I do not think DVD had much choice. Improbable backed out once before going into the gate (not shown on the edited video below) and did not get a great start. Then the 6 (Galilean) rushed up inside forcing him wide on the first turn. Long Range Toddy actually broke on top and got the perfect trip and ride to the wire by J Court.

That was a bad ride. That is all. The bright side is that Improbable will have a better odds next time out.

Quote: speedycrap

That was a bad ride. That is all. The bright side is that Improbable will have a better odds next time out.

the last half furlong of that race was covered in 6.06. The previous 2 in 24.46. the race with Game Winner was about the same. those are the best end of race times I've seen from the contenders, and it's pretty quick, and its a very good sign.

although I may have missed something in the others.

Considering how the other star two year olds have been pretty bad coming back this year, Improbable and Game Winner acquitted themselves very nicely for their first starts.

the city of Baltimore is trying to stop the powerful Stronach group from closing Pimlico and moving all operations to a renovated track in Laurel, Maryland
the Preakness has been run at Pimlico in Baltimore since 1873
probably not a great many people care about this, but I'm a guy with family roots in Baltimore and I do
I don't want the Preakness to leave Pimlico and Baltimore - I would rather that Stronach renovates Pimlico
https://wtop.com/baltimore/2019/03/baltimore-sues-pimlico-owners-want-track-seized/

Too expensive to renovate Pimlico. They race like 10 days a year there.

I’ve been to Laurel, not Pimlico.

I was not impressed.

Tacitus seems to be the best shot I have in my barn this year. GLTA in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Great ride keeping the slow pace up front in the Florida Derby for Maximum Security

I wonder if trainers will send a rabbit out after him in the Kentucky Derby?

With a 20 horse filed not sure there isn't always a "rabbit", seems like some horse always goes too fast early.

My future wagers are looking pretty solid so far. These prep races are nuts. 2 weeks to go!

wonder where DD is
he hasn't posted here since 3/9
he started the thread and usually posts a lot about the Derby and preps
today is the Wood, and I think he focuses on NY racing a lot

Quote: lilredrooster

wonder where DD is
he hasn't posted here since 3/9
he started the thread and usually posts a lot about the Derby and preps
today is the Wood, and I think he focuses on NY racing a lot

He signed on today. Maybe just doesn't have anything to say.

Quote: beachbumbabs

He signed on today. Maybe just doesn't have anything to say.

Or maybe he doesn't care to say it much on this site. Because like many people who see this forum and are attracted by an interest in its supposed topics, he also has a lot of ethical misgivings and moral discomfort about contributing substantive content to it. Same as most people who are acquainted with the forum side of the site and find it's something that mostly functions as a little cesspool/clubhouse for for a very dysfunctional little subculture and a saucer of online catnip for mentally ill & cognitively & emotionally disabled folks. Like he said about a month ago: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/29269-the-never-ending-horse-thread/51/#post700218

Quote: DrawingDead

...while there are some individuals who I'm certainly quite happy to exchange posts with anytime, and the place does get simultaneously used for multiple different purposes to some degree, the most highly visible aspects amount to providing a little social clubhouse for some folks who are not at all well emotionally or cognitively, in some cases helping them feel better about their dysfunction in the world, seeking & finding a virtual place for social reinforcement for staying sick and getting sicker.

Simply put, I agree with most folks who see it and (more quickly than me) just say "yuck, no thanks." The site is often fairly creepy-sleazy, and if anything just seems to get more and more so, and I often have misgivings about contributing content to it at all.

Maybe that's why. But thx I appreciate you asking, Rooster.

My picks:

WoodMemorial -- Haikal

BlueGrassStakes -- Win Win Win

SantaAnitaDerby -- Roadster


Let's hope all the horses and jocks remain safe out there

Man the Derby is muddled.

I have future wagers all over the place, so I should end up ok.

There have been many twists and turns, so I’m going to wait until after Saturday to start giving predictions.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/horse-racing/story.cfm/story/1944105

Quote: lilredrooster

http://www.vegasinsider.com/horse-racing/story.cfm/story/1944105

I love the Derby. 20 horse field of such quality.

My top two picks for the Derby are: Omaha Beach and Tacitus.

Reasons??

Quote: FinsRule

My top two picks for the Derby are: Omaha Beach and Tacitus.

Omaha Beach scratched. Derby in chaos.

anybody get the drf pp's on line feel free to post them

I have these, trying to get drf classic.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=12&param1=4080&param2=272&param3=1623276