DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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November 23rd, 2018 at 8:18:12 PM permalink
Pool #1 of the parimutual KY Derby Future Wager is now open, and will stay that way until 6pm Eastern / 3pm Pacific on Sunday.

Live odds for both win & exacta pools can be seen at:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-1

Free Brisnet past performances (pdf file downloadable with no account or login involved):
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Derby19Future1.pdf

The Pool #1 wagering interests & Battaglia's "morning line."
1. Cairo Cat 30-1
2. Code of Honor 20-1
3. Coliseum 15-1
4. Dunph 30-1
5. Epic Dreamer 50-1
6. Game Winner 8-1
7. Gunmetal Gray 30-1
8. Improbable 10-1
9. Instagrand 10-1
10. King for a Day 50-1
11. Knicks Go 20-1
12. Magic on Tap 30-1
13. Maximus Mischief 30-1
14. Mucho 50-1
15. Mucho Gusto 20-1
16. Network Effect 30-1
17. Preamble 50-1
18. Roadster 30-1
19. Signalman 50-1
20. Tale of the Union 30-1
21. Uncle Benny 50-1
22. Vekoma 30-1
23. All Fillies 30-1
24. Field 7-5

I don't intend to seriously consider any of it, including "all others" in the "#24-Field" wager, before Sunday afternoon when some significant money will start to hit the board. Though there is often a "recency bias" of wagering on an impressive looking winner on the weekend of each KDFW Pool, even with that happening the wagering in these pools is usually too thin to get any feel for the betting market until the last hours before they close it, regardless of what relevant races & results might occur earlier.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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November 23rd, 2018 at 8:45:37 PM permalink
I do the field for $100 every year. Iíve already put my $100 in. 7-5 would be a gift. Honestly, anything over 4-5 is a gift.

I have another play Iím doing, but Iím not going to get into specifics.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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  • Posts: 2011
November 24th, 2018 at 1:21:03 AM permalink
the first pool field bet is a good bet imho. not much predictability there. the favorite is now 6/1. last Derby 13 out of 20 horses from the first pool were eligible for a field bet win. right now the field is paying 6/5. that's males, does not include any females. very unlikely a female would win.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 24, 2018
90% 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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December 1st, 2018 at 11:39:08 AM permalink
The 8th @ Aqueduct today (3:12 ET / 12:12 PT) for 2 year olds at 8.5 9 furlongs looks like your basic hodge-podge of a so-so restricted allowance cobbled together on a Thursday afternoon when the racing secretary has trouble filling a card. Unfortunately it is actually going off as the Grade II Remsen Stks.

I may be mildly interested to see whether Jungle Warrior takes to the surface on the main track. And whether Ortiz/Jerkens can get him to wake up sometime before mid-stretch.

Meantime, what does Jaime Mejia actually do for a living? Training horses to win races surely can't be it; he's accidentally won all of 54 times out of 1,236 races lifetime, and in a remarkable display of futile consistency he's 26 for 479 for the year. Maybe he pays the rent by specializing in picking up 5th place checks in events with short fields. He has not one but two entered (uncoupled) here. He also owns both. And with only 7 scheduled to go to post, I can just smell that 5th place money, baby!

EDIT: Ooops, the Remsen is a mile and an eighth (9f) and not a mile and a sixteenth (8.5f). Fixed above.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Dec 1, 2018
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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December 1st, 2018 at 1:07:11 PM permalink
I think the top two of the Remsen gave a good accounting of themselves. Iíll take the 2nd place finisher over the 1st going forward.

And I put 2 whole dollars on him to win the Derby.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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December 1st, 2018 at 1:33:30 PM permalink
Well shucks it seems Mr. Mejia juuuuuust missed the cheese crumb for fifth, being 6th & 7th out of the 7 while finishing a mere fifteen lengths & eighty-nine lengths respectively behind that lucky 5th place spot. I'm sure this little run of bad luck will turn around for him any year now.

"For the record" in case anyone cares to make fun of it later, at this time I have some small sporting Derby future wagers booked on 'King for a Day' at 54:1, on 'Mucho' at 44:1, and 'Uncle Benny' at 54:1. Everybody needs an Uncle Benny in the family.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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December 4th, 2018 at 2:31:07 PM permalink
Thanks for starting the thread this year. I have done very little work with regards to the 2019 Derby. I have only seen a few races here and there. There are a few I am interested in and watching for their return to the track. Baffert sure looks to have a very strong stable of contenders already this season. He has 2 likely for the Los Alamitos Derby this weekend (a race he has never lost, 4 for 4).
Uncle Benny was one I had read about in the first pool. Front running score in his debut on the dirt. And then 2 deep and fast closing efforts on the turf. Will he go back to dirt or stay on the turf?
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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December 14th, 2018 at 9:24:15 PM permalink
Epic Dreamer runs on Sunday @ Remington (Springboard mile). I have him in my barn. Interesting son of Orb. J Castellano sticks with him and flies out to Oklahoma. Hope he has a solid race.
----------

A horse I would like to add to my barn is Super Steed. His odds are a bit too low for me right now. He also does not show any workouts since his last race (2+ weeks), but he is another I am watching.
----------

Improbable has the look of a real contender. Another Baffert monster runner. He was solid (maybe a bit green/still learning) in the Los Alamitos Futurity and he has a stride to behold down the lane to the finish.
http://www.winstarfarm.com/articles/undefeated-improbable-superb-in-los-alamitos-futurity-(g1).html
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
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December 15th, 2018 at 12:28:12 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

The 8th @ Aqueduct today (3:12 ET / 12:12 PT) for 2 year olds at 8.5 9 furlongs looks like your basic hodge-podge of a so-so restricted allowance cobbled together on a Thursday afternoon when the racing secretary has trouble filling a card. Unfortunately it is actually going off as the Grade II Remsen Stks.

I may be mildly interested to see whether Jungle Warrior takes to the surface on the main track. And whether Ortiz/Jerkens can get him to wake up sometime before mid-stretch.

Meantime, what does Jaime Mejia actually do for a living? Training horses to win races surely can't be it; he's accidentally won all of 54 times out of 1,236 races lifetime, and in a remarkable display of futile consistency he's 26 for 479 for the year. Maybe he pays the rent by specializing in picking up 5th place checks in events with short fields. He has not one but two entered (uncoupled) here. He also owns both. And with only 7 scheduled to go to post, I can just smell that 5th place money, baby!

EDIT: Ooops, the Remsen is a mile and an eighth (9f) and not a mile and a sixteenth (8.5f). Fixed above.




I have a list of pathetic trainers (mejia not on it) who have numbers like 3 for 106 and 4 for 121 but they run a very disproportionate amount of times 3rd and 4th.....my guess they bet supers and I go with the flow.
get second you pig
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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January 29th, 2019 at 7:59:37 PM permalink
Wow, this thread has been gathering dust. 3 Derby preps this weekend, just waiting for all the completed entries. Lots of chatter about about this guy's recent race on Pegasus Day @ Gulfstream:
Hidden Scroll
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10075124&registry=T
He cruised and crushed the field while earning a big # for the one turn mile event.



Shoutout to DD...
What AWD would you put on War of Will?
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10079478&registry=T&rbt=TB
Gotta be pretty high (I would guess).

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