2019 Kentucky Derby &amp; Triple Crown classics

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November 23rd, 2018 at 8:45:37 PM permalink

I do the field for $100 every year. I�ve already put my $100 in. 7-5 would be a gift. Honestly, anything over 4-5 is a gift.

I have another play I�m doing, but I�m not going to get into specifics.

lilredrooster

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November 24th, 2018 at 1:21:03 AM permalink

the first pool field bet is a good bet imho. not much predictability there. the favorite is now 6/1. last Derby 13 out of 20 horses from the first pool were eligible for a field bet win. right now the field is paying 6/5. that's males, does not include any females. very unlikely a female would win.

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 24, 2018

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DrawingDead

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December 1st, 2018 at 11:39:08 AM permalink

The 8th @ Aqueduct today (3:12 ET / 12:12 PT) for 2 year olds at 8.5 9 furlongs looks like your basic hodge-podge of a so-so restricted allowance cobbled together on a Thursday afternoon when the racing secretary has trouble filling a card. Unfortunately it is actually going off as the Grade II Remsen Stks.

I may be mildly interested to see whether Jungle Warrior takes to the surface on the main track. And whether Ortiz/Jerkens can get him to wake up sometime before mid-stretch.

Meantime, what does Jaime Mejia actually do for a living? Training horses to win races surely can't be it; he's accidentally won all of 54 times out of 1,236 races lifetime, and in a remarkable display of futile consistency he's 26 for 479 for the year. Maybe he pays the rent by specializing in picking up 5th place checks in events with short fields. He has not one but two entered (uncoupled) here. He also owns both. And with only 7 scheduled to go to post, I can just smell that 5th place money, baby!

EDIT: Ooops, the Remsen is a mile and an eighth (9f) and not a mile and a sixteenth (8.5f). Fixed above.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Dec 1, 2018

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FinsRule

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December 1st, 2018 at 1:07:11 PM permalink

I think the top two of the Remsen gave a good accounting of themselves. I�ll take the 2nd place finisher over the 1st going forward.

And I put 2 whole dollars on him to win the Derby.

DrawingDead

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December 1st, 2018 at 1:33:30 PM permalink

Well shucks it seems Mr. Mejia juuuuuust missed the cheese crumb for fifth, being 6th & 7th out of the 7 while finishing a mere fifteen lengths & eighty-nine lengths respectively behind that lucky 5th place spot. I'm sure this little run of bad luck will turn around for him any year now.

"For the record" in case anyone cares to make fun of it later, at this time I have some small sporting Derby future wagers booked on 'King for a Day' at 54:1, on 'Mucho' at 44:1, and 'Uncle Benny' at 54:1. Everybody needs an Uncle Benny in the family.

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Keeneone

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December 4th, 2018 at 2:31:07 PM permalink

Thanks for starting the thread this year. I have done very little work with regards to the 2019 Derby. I have only seen a few races here and there. There are a few I am interested in and watching for their return to the track. Baffert sure looks to have a very strong stable of contenders already this season. He has 2 likely for the Los Alamitos Derby this weekend (a race he has never lost, 4 for 4).
Uncle Benny was one I had read about in the first pool. Front running score in his debut on the dirt. And then 2 deep and fast closing efforts on the turf. Will he go back to dirt or stay on the turf?

Keeneone

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December 14th, 2018 at 9:24:15 PM permalink

Epic Dreamer runs on Sunday @ Remington (Springboard mile). I have him in my barn. Interesting son of Orb. J Castellano sticks with him and flies out to Oklahoma. Hope he has a solid race.
----------

A horse I would like to add to my barn is Super Steed. His odds are a bit too low for me right now. He also does not show any workouts since his last race (2+ weeks), but he is another I am watching.
----------

Improbable has the look of a real contender. Another Baffert monster runner. He was solid (maybe a bit green/still learning) in the Los Alamitos Futurity and he has a stride to behold down the lane to the finish.
http://www.winstarfarm.com/articles/undefeated-improbable-superb-in-los-alamitos-futurity-(g1).html

ontariodealer

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December 15th, 2018 at 12:28:12 AM permalink

Quote: DrawingDead
The 8th @ Aqueduct today (3:12 ET / 12:12 PT) for 2 year olds at 8.5 9 furlongs looks like your basic hodge-podge of a so-so restricted allowance cobbled together on a Thursday afternoon when the racing secretary has trouble filling a card. Unfortunately it is actually going off as the Grade II Remsen Stks.

I may be mildly interested to see whether Jungle Warrior takes to the surface on the main track. And whether Ortiz/Jerkens can get him to wake up sometime before mid-stretch.

Meantime, what does Jaime Mejia actually do for a living? Training horses to win races surely can't be it; he's accidentally won all of 54 times out of 1,236 races lifetime, and in a remarkable display of futile consistency he's 26 for 479 for the year. Maybe he pays the rent by specializing in picking up 5th place checks in events with short fields. He has not one but two entered (uncoupled) here. He also owns both. And with only 7 scheduled to go to post, I can just smell that 5th place money, baby!

EDIT: Ooops, the Remsen is a mile and an eighth (9f) and not a mile and a sixteenth (8.5f). Fixed above.

I have a list of pathetic trainers (mejia not on it) who have numbers like 3 for 106 and 4 for 121 but they run a very disproportionate amount of times 3rd and 4th.....my guess they bet supers and I go with the flow.

get second you pig

Keeneone

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January 29th, 2019 at 7:59:37 PM permalink

Wow, this thread has been gathering dust. 3 Derby preps this weekend, just waiting for all the completed entries. Lots of chatter about about this guy's recent race on Pegasus Day @ Gulfstream:
Hidden Scroll
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10075124&registry=T
He cruised and crushed the field while earning a big # for the one turn mile event.

Shoutout to DD...
What AWD would you put on War of Will?
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10079478&registry=T&rbt=TB
Gotta be pretty high (I would guess).

DrawingDead

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January 29th, 2019 at 11:20:51 PM permalink

I'm very interested in both of them. In case Baffert ever misplaces his chemistry set one of these days.

War of Will: 8.4f
Hidden Scroll 7.4f

Mott Taking Wait-and-See Approach With Hidden Scroll (1/27):

Quote: Bill Finley - Thoroughbred Daily News

...<SNIP>...

His running time for the one-mile race run in the slop was 1:34.82. Five races later, older horses covered the same distance in 1:36.22 in the GIII Fred W. Hooper S.

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Keeneone

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January 30th, 2019 at 3:51:22 PM permalink

Thanks for those DD. Baffert did lose the Sham with Coliseum but he still has a strong string with the likes of Improbable and Game Winner. The pps are up for the 3 preps this weekend. As in the past, you click the trainer link and then select the Ultimate PP's for the race you are interested in.

Withers/Holy Bull - Moretti/Federal Case
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Robert Lewis - Mucho Gusto
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm

Withers - No opinion
Holy Bull - I am pulling for Epic Dreamer to bounce back. Lots of speed horses and a number of closers to choose from. Looks like a good betting race.
Robert Lewis - Mucho Gusto may be difficult to pass in this one. If he runs big it will certainly flatter Improbable.
GLTA

FinsRule

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January 30th, 2019 at 7:08:20 PM permalink

This Saturday marks my official start of paying attention to triple crown season.

I pretty much take some time off after Breeders Cup. It�s probably healthy to have an off season.

I�ve watched some races, but I�ll really start digging in Saturday.

Next week is pool 2 of KY Derby futures, so I�ll watch this weekend and study up on a bunch next week in time to make some futures bets.

lilredrooster

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January 31st, 2019 at 10:23:48 AM permalink

Quote: DrawingDead
I'm very interested in both of them. In case Baffert ever misplaces his chemistry set one of these days.

Hidden Scroll 7.4f

Equibase, who probably doesn't have the most useful speed figures, but still, gave Hidden Scroll a very high 115 for his first race. his split times were really quick.

that's higher than they ever gave Justify and equal to or greater than the last 3 races of the 2nd choice for Horse of the Year, Accelerate, a 5 year old.

very impressive - but was it because he loves the slop and got loose on the lead, or is he the real deal?

𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒂𝒏𝒔𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒎𝒚 𝒇𝒓𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒅 𝒊𝒔 𝒃𝒍𝒐𝒘𝒊𝒏' 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒅. 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒂𝒏𝒔𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒊𝒔 𝒃𝒍𝒐𝒘𝒊𝒏' 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒅

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DrawingDead

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February 1st, 2019 at 3:58:00 PM permalink

For those who don't get the full time racing channels or just prefer another format besides TVG or streaming through an ADW wagering platform:

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Keeneone

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February 8th, 2019 at 6:59:40 PM permalink

Withers - Tax won.
Holy Bull - Harvey Wallbanger won.
Robert Lewis - Mucho Gusto won.

Sam F Davis @ Tampa Downs is tomorrow. Some big Stables sending out their Derby hopefuls. Looks like an interesting event.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/GODOLPHIN/9999/summary.html

Kentucky Derby Pool 2 is open now and closes Sunday:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-2
Interestingly, Coliseum is listed in the pool but is entered to run in the San Vicente (G2) @ 7 Furlongs @ Santa Anita this Sunday (no Derby points for this race).

DrawingDead

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February 10th, 2019 at 1:41:56 PM permalink

Added to DrawingDead Virtual Stables, Inc:

Global Campaign, AWD 7.8f
Hidden Scroll, AWD 7.5f
War of Will, 8.4f

At about 2 hrs before closing the Pool #2 straight win price on Bill Mott's not so Hidden colt is looking completely sucky, bet down to mid/high single digits & offering no value at all for any wager this far out from the event, IMO. But I did it anyway, because I wanna. On the other hand, in my view the exacta combinations I'm most interested in that involve him are still at more than fair value.

By the way, my calculation of the AWD of Hidden Scroll's pedigree has moved up a bit, by 0.1f from what I posted earlier in this thread, with recent additional data from the weighted performance of the progeny of his daddy (x2) & maternal grandpa (x1).

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FinsRule

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February 10th, 2019 at 3:33:03 PM permalink

I like War of Will a lot. Game Winner and Improbable too.

My big bets were on all others and Game Winner with all others.

Hidden Scroll was on slop. No reason for me to get too excited yet.

Keeneone

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February 10th, 2019 at 3:39:17 PM permalink

Pool #2 is now closed. I bet a little on the exacta this pool. Tacitus might have been worth a look @ 90/1+. He has yet to race as a 3 yo. Mott was quoted as saying he thought Tacitus was his "Derby " horse in the past, and then Hidden Scroll runs a monster race in his debut...

DrawingDead

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February 15th, 2019 at 1:13:01 AM permalink

Equibase PPs for the Risen Star Stks, an 8.5 furlong $400k Grade II at Fairgrounds in New Orleans, with War of Will hung out wide in post #14. This EQB "Race of the Week" pdf file is free w/ no account login:

http://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf

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FinsRule

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February 15th, 2019 at 4:42:24 AM permalink

Quote: DrawingDead
Equibase PPs for the Risen Star Stks, an 8.5 furlong $400k Grade II at Fairgrounds in New Orleans, with War of Will hung out wide in post #14. This EQB "Race of the Week" pdf file is free w/ no account login:

http://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf

Talk about an impossible race.

I don�t think there�s a toss in the whole field.

beachbumbabs

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February 15th, 2019 at 7:20:50 AM permalink

FinsRule. Here's good joss for your race tomorrow! Very excited for you.

I understand that I've missed the Future Pool 2 for KD. But can I just walk in to a track/sportsbook and structure my own futures bet now? I'm interested in wheeling or boxing 5 horses I like in exacta/trifecta/superfecta combinations. If I can, do the odds I buy now stand, or do they vary with the parimutuel movement as horses' odds change?

If not now, when?

Thanks in advance.

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Keeneone

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February 15th, 2019 at 12:02:46 PM permalink

Quote: DrawingDead
Equibase PPs for the Risen Star Stks, an 8.5 furlong $400k Grade II at Fairgrounds in New Orleans, with War of Will hung out wide in post #14. This EQB "Race of the Week" pdf file is free w/ no account login:
http://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf

Difficult post for War of Will, but he has done nothing wrong in his last 2 events. Pace was modest in the Lecomte but he is the one to beat tomorrow IMO. I would also give the #1 another chance after a stumble at the start in the Lecomte.

Quote: FinsRule
Talk about an impossible race.
I don�t think there�s a toss in the whole field.

Hard one to handicap for sure. It seemed unusual to see a Baffert runner @ FG (#13 Kingly), but then I noticed he is cross entered into the El Camino Real and will not race in the Risen Star. The Southwest Stakes looks the also looks difficult to predict this long weeekend.

Golden Gate El Camino Real (click on Kingly for pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm

Oaklawn Park Southwest Stakes (Monday - Click on Cutting Humor for pps)"
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Grey Attempt wired the field in the one mile Smarty Jones. He has the rail and easily could be on the lead again. But he is now going an extra 1/16 of a mile and giving up 5 pounds to most in the field.
GLTA

DrawingDead

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Thanked by

February 15th, 2019 at 12:27:42 PM permalink

What you can buy now from multiple sportsbooks, but not from tracks located where sports bets are not legal, will be individual tickets to win. You won't be able to do exactas from the books. Maybe they'll have some eccentric propositions, but they generally start to offer those closer to the event, like they do leading up to the Super Bowl and suchlike. These future book bets to win are generally available from Las Vegas books on a much larger number of nominees from the crop of 3 year-olds who are technically eligible for the event than those 22 or 23 presumed to be most likely who are selected to be included in the parimutual pools, but the choices will not include a "field" bet on "all-others." I would guess that at least one or two of the newly established legal New Jersey books might be doing the same.

These sportsbook tickets are not parimutual. They are fixed odds sports bets. Just like buying a ticket from a sportsbook on who will win some other future sporting event, and only legal where general sports betting is legalized. And there will be some differences in those fixed odds offered from different books. There will be a parimutual Pool 3 available through tracks and national advance deposit horseracing account betting as well as at sportsbooks, on March 8-10, along with a Kentucky Oaks pool for fillies open on those days. And then a final Pool 4 this year April 5-7.

Quote: beachbumbabs
FinsRule. Here's good joss for your race tomorrow! Very excited for you.

I understand that I've missed the Future Pool 2 for KD. But can I just walk in to a track/sportsbook and structure my own futures bet now? I'm interested in wheeling or boxing 5 horses I like in exacta/trifecta/superfecta combinations. If I can, do the odds I buy now stand, or do they vary with the parimutuel movement as horses' odds change?

If not now, when?

Thanks in advance.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 15, 2019

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lilredrooster

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February 15th, 2019 at 1:53:33 PM permalink

the twinspires.com Derby futures wagering does offer exacta wagering, it is parimutuel and it features some 𝐠𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜 payouts
wow, I really sound like some kind of pathetic sucker with that remark
reminds me of when I used to go to the track before computer wagering and there were always guys looking at the tote and saying 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬
it didn't matter to these guys if the numbers horse was so slow that I might have beat him for 40 yards in my younger days (not really)
this is how pool 2 closed on the exacta wagering
finger stretch to see the small print or use this link:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/2018-19_DFW_Pool_2__2_Ex_Probables.pdf

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 15, 2019

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DrawingDead

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February 15th, 2019 at 2:43:36 PM permalink

EDIT to add: Ah, now I see where you also linked to the very same original file for the exacta grid at the KDFW site as I did below. It is just a matter of calling it TwinSpires. A lot of people won't have access to TwinSpires, but can bet into these Churchill parimutual pools, when open, through many other sources. Nevada is one of the places where people won't be able to get TwinSpires.

ORIGINAL REPLY:

Yes, but I'm sure you don't want to imply that it is a TwinSpires pool, and that someone needs to go to them for it or that it is theirs. This will probably sound picky or unintentionally quarrelous, but it is a distinction that actually can matter.

That's the Churchill Downs parimutual Derby Future Wager exacta grid from Pool 2. It is not specifically a TwinSpires thing. TwinSpires happens to be one of the many parimutual wagering platforms transmitting wagers from its customers into these parimutual pools, when open. But it isn't their wager or their pool you are looking at there. TwinSpires just sends the wagers to them, along with everyone else doing the same. As you probably already know, TwinSpires happens to be an ADW (advance deposit account wagering) provider that's owned by CDI, which is also the parent company of the Churchill Downs track in Louisville. But you bet into the Churchill Downs pool from any track or off-track betting site or other ADW or book that participates with wagering transmitted through the nationwide hub, which is pretty nearly all of them. You don't have to go to TwinSpires, or be in one of the jurisdictions where they operate. There are states where they don't.

Here is the public site for the future wager at the link below, with the exacta grids for the pools that have been held. They are the source for the numbers on that TwinSpires screen grab above, and will be much easier to read. Follow the links for whichever pool you want to see: The numbers on the grid will be the same as was shown above, but you can manipulate the display of the PDF with your reader/browser, and/or download to view as you wish or put in a spreadsheet (I do) to manipulate and calculate the price of tea in China or print to fold, spindle, mutilate, and whisper to a pair of dice over or whatever.

Main KDFW site, with links to specific pool information & data:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager

KDFW specific Pool #2 page:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-2

PDF of final Pool 2 exacta grid:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/2018-19_DFW_Pool_2__2_Ex_Probables.pdf

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 15, 2019

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lilredrooster

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February 16th, 2019 at 1:35:05 AM permalink

Dead - how come they call the exacta payouts "probables?"
the pool is closed - doesn't that mean they should be the exact payouts?

is it just a mistake, bad wording? using the same wording as on everyday tote screens?

oh, I think I figured it out.

they were "probables" until the pool closed. they just didn't change the wording. I think.

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 16, 2019

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DrawingDead

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February 16th, 2019 at 2:29:43 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
Dead - how come they call the exacta payouts "probables?"
the pool is finished - doesn't that mean they should be the exact payouts?

is it just a mistake, bad wording? using the same wording as on everyday tote screens?

oh, I think I figured it out.

they were "probables" until the pool was finished. they just didn't change the wording. I think.

I've noticed the same, and I *think* the answers are (my "probable answers"): yes they should, yes, yes, and yes; also yes. IMO. And then, finally a definite yes, they did not change it when it went from live wagering to closed. (my "final fixed answer").

And I think maybe I recall noticing something like that in other years. Specifically for the exactas, IIRC. I imagine it could actually confuse a few people into thinking it was still a live dynamic pool with the potential to change. But then they wouldn't be able to act on that idea.

But there's another page that's correctly labeled "Final Odds & Will Pays" for the win pool: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/20190210-KDFW-Final-Odds-Pool-2.pdf

I'll speculate that maybe the formatting for displaying such a big exacta grid on the web is kinda tricky to edit anything without making a mess. But that's called guessing; I actually have no idea about doing fancy web page design & file display type stuff.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 16, 2019

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lilredrooster

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February 16th, 2019 at 4:20:17 AM permalink

yeah, when money is involved you're expecting the language to be 100% accurate
you wouldn't expect a bank to send you a credit card statement saying your "estimated" minimum payment is XYZ

seems kind of sloppy
no big deal - whatever

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DrawingDead

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February 16th, 2019 at 6:45:21 PM permalink

The winner of the feature at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May will be... El Camino Real result chart ...not found here. Very not here. Enough of the limp cheese sticks.

On to the main course. Fractional times of the Fairgrounds events at 1-1/16 mile (8.5f):

2 Frlg-4 Frlg-6 Frlgs--1 Mile---Finish---Late stretch splits
23.80 47.89 1:13.11 1:38.39 1:45.04 . (25.28) (6.65) Maiden Special Weight, 3y/o
25.93 50.74 1:14.82 1:39.08 1:45.46 . (24.26) (6.38) Mineshaft Hdcp, Grade 3, 4y/o+ Beyer: 97
24.02 47.81 1:12.45 1:37.89 1:44.74 . (25.44) (6.85) Rachel Alexandra Stks, Grade 2, 3y/o fillies, Beyer: 91
23.71 47.36 1:12.20 1:37.87 1:44.59 . (25.67) (6.72) Risen Star Stks, Grade 2, 3y/o Beyer: 92

Red highlight = the race producing the quickest clocking for the distance at that pole or split. But I note the interesting adjustments by the Beyer crew resulting in a significantly higher figure for the slower final time in the Gr. 3 Handicap for fully mature males.

Hmmm. War of Will @ Risen Star result chart

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 16, 2019

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DrawingDead

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February 17th, 2019 at 8:21:22 AM permalink

The Southwest Stakes goes as Race #9 at Oaklawn tomorrow, on the Monday holiday.

But Geejus Heist. I don't think I've ever seen this done before to such an extreme extent. Steve Asmussen has entered five 3y/o colts from his stable out of the total of eleven running. Uno Steve, dos Steve, tres Steve, quatro Steve, cinco Steve, for a total of twenty hooves of Asmussen to be loaded in the gate. The thundering herd formerly known as the contents of the SM Asmussen barn will be uncoupled in the wagering. I can't quite get a grip on what's up with that, but whatever else it is, it is uniquely redonkulous, and none of my money will be burned in this mess.

Further and probably more importantly, in a Grade 3 that serves as a Derby prep & qualifying race, not a single one of the eleven pedigrees has produced progeny with an average winning distance greater than 7.1 furlongs, and most are 6.x. I have no interest in this event as a potential step towards the Derby, unless it is some "Derby" in Puerto Rico or Iowa at not much more than half the distance of the other one in Kentucky. The Southwest has been productive for the three year old classics in the past, along with the rest of the Oaklawn series of 3y/o route stakes, but it ain't happenin' this time. This year it is more likely to serve as a step towards an obscure allowance race on a Tuesday at Delta Downs.

The next serious event on the schedule for Derby contenders will be the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on March 2nd.

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DrawingDead

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February 17th, 2019 at 8:32:26 AM permalink

Finally I'm able to add a video to the earlier post about the result of the Risen Star yesterday:

Quote: DrawingDead
The winner of the feature at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May will be... El Camino Real result chart ...not found here. Very not here. Enough of the limp cheese sticks.

On to the main course. Fractional times of the Fairgrounds events at 1-1/16 mile (8.5f):

2 Frlg-4 Frlg-6 Frlgs--1 Mile---Finish---Late stretch splits
23.80 47.89 1:13.11 1:38.39 1:45.04 . (25.28) (6.65) Maiden Special Weight, 3y/o
25.93 50.74 1:14.82 1:39.08 1:45.46 . (24.26) (6.38) Mineshaft Hdcp, Grade 3, 4y/o+ Beyer: 97
24.02 47.81 1:12.45 1:37.89 1:44.74 . (25.44) (6.85) Rachel Alexandra Stks, Grade 2, 3y/o fillies, Beyer: 91
23.71 47.36 1:12.20 1:37.87 1:44.59 . (25.67) (6.72) Risen Star Stks, Grade 2, 3y/o Beyer: 92

Red highlight = the race producing the quickest clocking for the distance at that pole or split. But I note the interesting adjustments by the Beyer crew resulting in a significantly higher figure for the slower final time in the Gr. 3 Handicap for fully mature males.

Hmmm. War of Will @ Risen Star result chart

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DrawingDead

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February 18th, 2019 at 1:50:44 PM permalink

Daily Racing Form has made the Southwest Stakes their "race of the day" so anyone can read or download their "classic" style past performances for it for free without logging in with a DRF account:

https://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=OP&country=USA&raceDate=20190218&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=9#past-performance-race/9

You will need "Flash Player" to open it. It can be saved by "printing" it in a PDF file.

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Keeneone

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February 18th, 2019 at 3:58:28 PM permalink

Super Steed won the Southwest Stakes @ Oaklawn (62-1). I actually mentioned him earlier on in this thread, but I had given up on him after his 1st 2 turn experiment (Smarty Jones). Big early move found him in front turning for home and he won at a big price (I had nothing on the race). As DD mentioned generally about the Southwest runners, the Derby distance is the question with the field and specifically Super Steed. The final time of the Southwest (1:44+) seemed a bit slow for top flight 3yo males.

Very nice win by WoW in the Risen Star. Improbable and WoW would be my top 2 right now.

Last edited by: Keeneone on Feb 18, 2019

FinsRule

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February 18th, 2019 at 4:16:43 PM permalink

Everyone gives up on him, then he wins.

I think he�s a horse to look at. We will see what Larry Jones says.

Motion Emotion ran an identical time yesterday. I think she is a serious Oaks horse.

I haven�t watched War of Will�s race yet, but I was impressed with him going in, so I�m sure I�ll be impressed again.

I have a futures Exacta with him and Improbable that pays a boatload.

DrawingDead

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February 18th, 2019 at 5:27:52 PM permalink

The Southwest Stakes just got a Beyer fig of 87. And the one guy who actually had a bet on the winner on the nose just got a lifetime supply of Ripple wine. He was not named Steve Asmussen. And from the interview at the end end of the clip, also not Larry Jones.

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Keeneone

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February 20th, 2019 at 1:06:52 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
-snip-
I have a futures Exacta with him and Improbable that pays a boatload.

That is solid. It would also be nice if you have those 2 boxed with "Mutuel Field (All Others)" from KD Pool 2.
----------

Past performances for Derby hopefuls listed by current KD qualifying points:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Derby19Points.pdf

FinsRule

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February 20th, 2019 at 3:54:35 PM permalink

I made a $50 All Others bet in Pool 2 and a $10 Game Winner / All Others Exacta.

I should have plenty of decent pay possibilities on derby day.

DrawingDead

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February 28th, 2019 at 1:59:28 PM permalink

The Fountain of Youth at has been designated Daily Racing Form's "Race of the Day" for Saturday (GP - Race #13 - 5:32pm ET & 2:32pm PT) so their past performances in "classic" format are a free .PDF download at: DRF's LINK

Not surprisingly, things are getting a little more salty looking. There are three in here I could take seriously, at least for preps on this surface up to 9f. Two of them booked in my future wagers for going 10f on the first Saturday in May, and one not.

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FinsRule

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February 28th, 2019 at 2:07:43 PM permalink

Maybe this is crazy, but I like Bourbon War at 10-1.

DrawingDead

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February 28th, 2019 at 5:48:36 PM permalink

I don't think Bourbon War is a toss-out at all, especially if there's a hot pace for him to run at. But I can't really see getting all of 10:1 on him.

Here's the Equibase version of free Race of the Week PPs for the same event: http://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf

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Keeneone

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February 28th, 2019 at 7:40:24 PM permalink

Interesting race with many to consider. I already have a future wager on Epic Dreamer, so I hope he can improve over his Holy Bull effort. Hard to really toss many in this event. Vekoma and Signalman return for their 3 year old debuts after solid 2 year old campaigns. And of course Hidden Scroll gets his first race against winners. I would be very surprised if HScroll beats this field second time out. It is a pretty salty bunch. Surprised the Toddster does not have one going in this event. Plenty of speed and off the pace types to choose from. GLTA

lilredrooster

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March 1st, 2019 at 3:59:01 AM permalink

As K said it is very surprising that Hidden Scroll is the morning line favorite and may very well be the actual fave having only run one race
the buzz about him is apparently pretty strong

all of the other horses have more experience and some have much more experience

obviously, there is the idea out there that he may be very special
I don't think I'll bet on him but I'm kind of rooting for him

it's fun to see a truly great horse develop if he is that

and am so thankful he's not a Baffert horse - that would ruin it for me

I remember what a great job Bill Mott did with Cigar. as a 3 year old before Mott got him he only won 2 of 9 races and won no stakes events
Cigar was my favorite horse of all time

Note: Hidden Scroll's jock, Joel Rosario, is winning at clip of 24% this year and in the money 59%, which is exceptional

Re Bourbon War: it looks like he made a strong stretch move last time out but the last 5/16ths was covered in just under 32 seconds which is not quick

this is my last comment and then I'll shut up for a good while:

I watched the replay of Hidden Scroll's win a couple of times and Rosario definitely wrapped him up (slowed him down) the last few strides - he could have easily gotten even a higher figure

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 1, 2019

Please don't feed the trolls

DrawingDead

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March 1st, 2019 at 9:33:54 AM permalink

So Bill Mott is running a Derby nominated colt that's in my future book stable... going to post in about an hour from now, in a first level restricted allowance in the 2nd at Gulfstream today. Mucho is returning to the track after finishing 2nd in the Hopeful at Saratoga six months ago, He's now showing up with fist time Lasix for his return and has been spitting a series of bullet works at the Payson training track. In post #1 in a five horse field he's sporting a morning line number of "Yeesh" otherwise known as "1:5" in your program. Not a typo, morning line dude thinks about $2.40 on the nose.

Quote:
Hard to really toss many in this event.

Little known fact is that the term "Trained by Jaime Mejia" is actually known as a form of creole-spanglish lingo for "Dead Last" on the streets of Miami. In his favor for anyone expecting a sudden eruption of Mejia competence his FoY entry of Galdiator King has actually won some races in his very busy young life, sprinting as a 2y/o. in 3 routes already, he's only lost by 34, 20, and 28 lengths, so of course after being outfinished in the stretch at 5 furlongs on grass just days ago, Jaime sends him to a Grade 2 Derby qualifying even tomorrow. Have I ever mentioned I'm really good at selecting horses to finish dead last? Not as easy as it sounds, lemme tell ya. Except tomorrow.

I do NOT want to suggest anyone should simply take these pedigree AWD numbers of mine as some kind of straight predictor for the result of this race on this surface tomorrow without regard to fitness, form, training, surface, speed, pace, post... no. They may be better viewed as a tool for projecting the shape of their most probable development curve moving down the road with each additional step in maturity & distance. But since I've got them in front of me and about 1.5 people here are somewhat interested, here you go with AWDs for the FoY field:

#1 Code of Honor 7.1f
#2 Epic Dreamer 6.9f
#3 Gladiator King 7.3f
#4 Bourbon War 7.4f
#5 Vekoma 6.9f
#6 Signalman 6.9f
#7 Hidden Scroll 7.5f
#8 Global Campaign 7.8f
#9 Everlast 7.1f
#10 Frosted Grace 7.0f
#11 Union's Destiny 7.6f

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Keeneone

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March 1st, 2019 at 3:19:11 PM permalink

Good stuff DD. I would guess GCampaign is one with KD potential you mentioned being interested in. He has done nothing wrong in his 2 "wrapped up" starts so far. He is another one that makes this race difficult to predict. I could potentially see 2/3/4 horses making the Derby gate from this field.

Quote: DrawingDead

#6 Signalman 6.9f

Even with a lowish AWD this animal is hard to ignore from a KD future betting perspective. He already has 18 points to make the gate. And he has raced over the CDowns track multiple times with very good results. He doesn't really need to run great in this event, but just get back into racing form for the first Saturday in May.

FinsRule

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March 1st, 2019 at 3:22:33 PM permalink

Signalman is probably most likely to hit the board in this group.

Keeneone

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March 1st, 2019 at 3:50:18 PM permalink

Baffert has Roadster (listed in KDerby Pool #1) returning today in SA #8 in about an hour. Another Derby "prospect", Nolo Contesto, is also competing in the 1 mile AOC event.

DrawingDead

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March 1st, 2019 at 4:08:34 PM permalink

Quote: Keeneone
...I would guess GCampaign is one with KD potential you mentioned being interested in....<SNIP>

Along with Hidden Scroll & War of Will, he's one of the three I took in KDFW Pool #2, closing at 22/1.

McPeek Cuts His Own Path With Talented 3-Year-Old Trio

[Bold emphasis added]

Quote: BloodHorse - Tom Pedulla
...<SNIP>...

Signalman worked five furlongs in company with Harvey Wallbanger last Saturday at Gulfstream, both clocked in 1:01.75. Signalman already has 18 qualifying points for the Derby, so McPeek is not treating the Fountain of Youth as a must-win situation. Signalman will break from post 6 in a field of 11; he is listed at morning-line odds of 9-2.

"We haven't hammered on him to get him ready for this race," the trainer said. "He needs to run a good race in this upcoming start, and then we'll pick the next prep after that. It's not the end of the world if he gets beaten this weekend. What's important is that he peaks in May."

McPeek is eying the April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland as the likely next stop for Signalman.

...<SNIP>...

I'm pretty sure McPeek was just kind enough to tell me what not to do with my money.

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Keeneone

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March 1st, 2019 at 4:38:33 PM permalink

I promise I did not read that article before my post. :)
This looks like a very good Derby prep race. Hard to bet/handicap but a must watch to see what happens...

FinsRule