No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet

My Bet(s):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/22/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 94.22...%
Estimated EV: 0.72...%
Bet Amount: 3.5% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 18 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 16 and 19 million tickets.

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"What if" scenario (If i could bet at betonline, this is what I would have at their current odds).

Book: www.betonline.ag
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/22/2020" (see: "Will Mega Millions Jackpot be won?" market)
Odds: -1200
Estimated Chance ***: 94.22...%
Estimated EV: 2.07...%
Bet Amount: 8.3% (about 1/3 Kelly)

Note: As I have to get ready for work, this will be my last update for tonights' Mega Millions draw, if the odds change between now and when you want to have a bet, then I recommend you use one of the "...lotto_bet_calc..." spreadsheets I have uploaded to help work out the bet amounts you should have.

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Also, because this spreadsheet is a lot "faster than the old way I was working out these bets" (using a calculator, going to the lottery website to get the "chance of the jackpot being won figures" ...), I decided to put up a "what if,,,," bet summary (for anyone that wants to bet with betonline, at a
similar "betting style" to how I would do it).

Lastly, I just woke up, so I haven't really checked the words thoroughly, but all the math looks good to me.

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/22/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,438
Finishing Bal: 25,500
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (500)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (706)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 899
Won ($): 62
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.24...%
Odds Taken: -1450
Actual EV: 0.74...%
Tickets Sold***: 17,922,437

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

"Bet Recommendation":

I think there is a decent "no" bet coming up for the Mega Millions (details below):

Book (link): https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/lottery
Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Market / Prop: "Will Mega Millions Jackpot be won?" / "550106 No"
Odds: -900
Estimated Chance ***: 93.91...%
Estimated EV: 4.34...%
"Recommended Bet Amount": 13% (about 1/3 Kelly)
Did I have a bet / when would I have a bet (if I could): no / now

***: I estimate 19 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 17 and 20 million tickets.

Odds Info:

PB ("No Winner"):
5dimes went: -3000 >>> -2750 >>> -2150 (current odds)
Betonline hasn't moved from: -2500

MM ("No Winner"):
5dimes: NA (At the moment)
Betonline went: -900 >>> -1000^^^ (current odds)

^^^ : At these odds it still has about a 3.3% estimated EV, and I would bet about 11% of my "bank-roll" (if I could bet there).

Important: If you already managed to get your "whole bet" on at the -900, then don't bet again, if for example you only got "half your bet" on at -900, then you should probably have 5.5% of your "bank-roll" at -1000.

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PB ticket estimates and "suggestion"... :

"Late*** Estimate": I estimate 12 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11.1 and 12.4 million tickets.

***: My "Early Estimate" was 11.3 million tickets.

Suggestion: At the current odds of -2150, there is about a 0.44% estimated EV, I will NOT be having a bet at these odds, but if you want to have a bet then I recommend about 3.2% of your "bank-roll" (about "1/3 Kelly" )

My Bet(s):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/23/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ***: 95.97...%
Estimated EV: 1.02...%
Bet Amount: 6.5% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

*** ("late estimate"): I estimate 12 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11.1 and 12.4 million tickets.

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Odds and "Spreadsheet reminder":

Betonline:
(1) is currently -2500 for the "Powerball no winner" (negative est EV at those odds)
(2) is currently -1000 for the "Mega Millions no winner" (+EV, see previous post above, for my bet "recommendations/suggestions")

5dimes:
(1) is currently -1900 for the ""Powerball no winner" (odds went > -3000 > -2750 > -2150 > -1900).
(2) I don't recommend you bet on this prop at the current odds, but the "53 Powerball number last digit is odd" went from -105 to +100 (so it currently has 0% EV).
(3) no Mega Millions "Jackpot winner" odds available at the moment.


Just a reminder, you can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.

I choose here: [Attempted spam link redacted]
Many good options, and most importantly - proven options!

Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 05/23/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,500
Finishing Bal: 25,588
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (412)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (618)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,672
Won ($): 88
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.94...%
Odds Taken: -1900
Actual EV: 0.99...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,095,670

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

My Bet(s):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/26/2020"
Odds: -1200
Estimated Chance ***: 93.91...%
Estimated EV: 1.73...%
Bet Amount: 6.9% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 19 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 17 and 20 million tickets.



Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/27/20"
Odds: -1800
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.30...%
Estimated EV: 1.65...%
Bet Amount: 9.9% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^ ("Early" Estimate): I estimate 11 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 10.2 and 11 million tickets.

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Odds Info and Reminder:

Mega Millions ("No Winner")
5dimes went: -1300 >>> -1200 (current odds)
Betonline went: -900 >>> -1000 >>> -1200 (current odds)

Powerball ("No Winner")
5dimes opened: -1800
Betonline hasn't moved from: -3300 (odds have been available for at least a day longer than 5dimes).

Reminder:
If you are wondering why I seem to generally have a "narrower range" for the Powerball when compared to the Mega Millions estimated tickets, it is just because I have more "sources of information" to use, when working out the Powerball estimates. Also, when the jackpots get "pretty big" ~$400 million (or higher), the accuracy of the estimates goes down a noticeable amount (again, generally speaking).

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/26/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,588
Finishing Bal: 25,736
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (264)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (470)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,776
Won ($): 148
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.10...%
Odds Taken: -1200
Actual EV: 1.95...%
Tickets Sold***: 18,372,704

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Quote: ksdjdj

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/26/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,588
Finishing Bal: 25,736
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (264)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (470)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,776
Won ($): 148
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.10...%
Odds Taken: -1200
Actual EV: 1.95...%
Tickets Sold***: 18,372,704

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

First off, love this thread. One request is that when you post these results, if it’s not too much trouble I would love to see the comparison of actual EV to your estimated EV and actual tickets sold to your estimated tickets sold. And then the actual Kelly bet you made (vs the 1/3 Kelly you were aiming for).

Good luck getting positive!

Odds and Suggestions (based on my "late" estimate)...

Powerball ("no winner"):
5dimes went: -1800 >>> -1900 (current odds)
Betonline still hasn't moved from: -3300

Suggestion: If you haven't had a bet on the "Powerball no winner" @ -1800, then I would have this bet with 5dimes @ -1900 , 8.2% as my bet amount (about 1/3 Kelly) with 1.30...% as my estimated EV^^^

^^^ ("Late" Estimate): The above EV, is based on an estimate of 11.2 million tickets sold ( think the most likely range will be between 10.7 and 11.5 million tickets).


Mega Millions ("no winner")
5dimes opened: -1165
Betonline opened: -1100


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My Bet(s):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/29/2020"
Odds: -1165
Estimated Chance ***: 93.21...%
Estimated EV: 1.21...%
Bet Amount: 4.7% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 21.25 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 19 and 22 million tickets.

Note/Suggestion: If I could have a bet with betonline on the "no" at -1100, then I would have this,
6.2% as my bet amount (about 1/3 Kelly) with 1.69...% as my estimated EV.

---
Just a reminder, you can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note : They are the spreadsheets with "...lotto..." in the name
Note 2: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.

Quote: unJon

First off, love this thread. One request is that when you post these results, if it’s not too much trouble I would love to see the comparison of actual EV to your estimated EV and actual tickets sold to your estimated tickets sold. And then the actual Kelly bet you made (vs the 1/3 Kelly you were aiming for).

Good luck getting positive!

Here is my first attempt doing the changes you suggested.

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Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 05/27/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,736
Finishing Bal: 25,878
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (122)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (328)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Ideal" Bet Amount (1/3 Kelly) : 2,556 / 2,556.75
Won ($): 142
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance^^^: 96.26...% / 96.30...%
Odds Taken: -1800
Actual EV / Estimated EV^^^: 1.61...% / 1.65...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold^^^: 11,117,080 / 11,000,000 ("Early")

^^^: The "Estimated Chance", "Estimated EV" and "Estimated Tickets Sold" figures are based on when I actually had the bet.

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Reminders (I won't write these every time I do the result summary):

. For the Powerball, I generally do two ticket estimates, "Early" and "Late", with the "Late" one generally being the "better" or "more accurate" estimate.

. Because I am only finding value on the "no side" so far, I generally want my "Estimated Tickets Sold" figures to be slightly bigger than the "Actual Tickets Sold".

. If you want to work out my "neutral" or "unbiased" ticket estimate, then you just: add together the two figures in the "most likely range..." part of my post, and then divide that figure by two (see quote/example below).

Quote: ksdjdj

May 26th, 2020 at 2:14:24 PM
(snip) ^^^ ("Early" Estimate): I estimate 11 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 10.2 and 11 million tickets..
(snip

Example: For the above quote, I would have said that 10.6 million tickets was my "neutral" ticket estimate, since (10.2 + 11) / 2 = 10.6.

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Math and related figures should be correct, spelling not checked

Quote: ksdjdj

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Ideal" Bet Amount (1/3 Kelly) : 2,556 / 2,556.75
Won ($): 142
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance^^^: 96.26...% / 96.30...%
Odds Taken: -1800
Actual EV / Estimated EV^^^: 1.61...% / 1.65...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold^^^: 11,117,080 / 11,000,000 ("Early")

^^^: The "Estimated Chance", "Estimated EV" and "Estimated Tickets Sold" figures are based on when I actually had the bet.

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Thanks! Interesting how close your estimate was. One question: looks like you slightly undersestimsted tickets sold so very slightly overestimated your EV. So I would have thought the ideal bet would be slightly less than actual bet. But you have ideal bet as slightly more than actual bet.

Quote: unJon

Thanks! Interesting how close your estimate was. One question: looks like you slightly undersestimsted tickets sold so very slightly overestimated your EV. So I would have thought the ideal bet would be slightly less than actual bet. But you have ideal bet as slightly more than actual bet.

You are correct, I can't remember why I wrote that, especially since you had this better one staring right at me >>> "...1/3 Kelly you were aiming for..."

Note: From now on I will write, "Bet I was aiming for (1/3 Kelly) " instead of " "Ideal" Bet...".

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Odds and Suggestions:

Mega Millions ("no winner")
5dimes went: -1165 >>> -1200
Betonline went: -1100 >>> -1200

If you didn't bet earlier, then I would suggest you bet about 3.9% on the "no jackpot winner" at -1200, for an estimated EV of 0.98...% (if you want to bet 1/3 Kelly and use my estimates).

Powerball ("no winner")
Betonline opened: -3300
5dimes: NA (at the moment).

Update (about 7pm):
Here is my "early" estimate for the Powerball>>> I estimate 13.2 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 12.5 and 13.3 million tickets.

Note: 13.2 million tickets = 95.58...% chance of "no jackpot winner", in case you want you use my estimates, but also want to have the bet as soon as one of the 'books puts up "+EV" odds (as I am usually asleep when 5dimes puts up their "opening odds").

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Odds and Suggestions:

Mega Millions ("no winner")
5dimes went: -1165 >>> -1200
Betonline went: -1100 >>> -1200

If you didn't bet earlier, then I would suggest you bet about 3.9% on the "no jackpot winner" at -1200, for an estimated EV of 0.98...% (if you want to bet 1/3 Kelly and use my estimates).

Powerball ("no winner")
Betonline opened: -3300
5dimes: NA (at the moment).

Update (about 7pm):
Here is my "early" estimate for the Powerball>>> I estimate 13.2 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 12.5 and 13.3 million tickets.

Note: 13.2 million tickets = 95.58...% chance of "no jackpot winner", in case you want you use my estimates, but also want to have the bet as soon as one of the 'books puts up "+EV" odds (as I am usually asleep when 5dimes puts up their "opening odds").

The odds haven't changed since my last post.

But, here is my "late" estimate for the Powerball>>> I estimate 12.7 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 12.2 and 13.0 million tickets.

Note: 12.7 million tickets = 95.74...% chance of "no jackpot winner", in case you want you use my estimates, but also want to have the bet as soon as one of the 'books puts up "+EV" odds (as I am usually asleep when 5dimes puts up their "opening odds").

Note 2: Using the above "late" estimate, I would personally want the odds to be "at least -2000", before I had a bet on the "no winner".

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/29/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,878
Finishing Bal: 25,984
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (16)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (222)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (1/3 Kelly)" : 1,234.90 / 1,225.45
Won ($): 106
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 93.55...% / 93.21...%
Odds Taken: -1165
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 1.58...% / 1.21...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 20,156,498 / 21,250,000


*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

My Bet(s):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/30/2020"
Odds: -1850
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.71...%
Estimated EV: 0.88...%
Bet Amount: 5.5% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^ (2nd "Late" Estimate): I estimate 12.8 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 12.3 and 13.1 million tickets. Normally I only do two estimates, but I made a minor mistake and meant to write this one above, as the "late" one.



Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 06/02/2020"
Odds: -1100
Estimated Chance ***: 93.17...%
Estimated EV: 1.64...%
Bet Amount: 6.0% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 21.4 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 19.1 and 22.1 million tickets.

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Odds

Powerball ("no winner"):
5dimes opened: -1850
Betonline opened: -3300

Mega Millions ("no winner")
5dimes opened: -1100
Betonline opened: -1100

5dimes - "Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 06/02/2020"
Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd / even: went -105### / -105 >>> -115 / +105

###: The opening odds for the "...last digit is odd" was -105 with ~ 1.52% EV and I would have liked to have $210 on it but I was tired (1am my time) and didn't want to make a mistake (like I have done before, when tired).

Note: -115 / +105 are the odds I would have probably opened with if I was the bookie doing this (in other words, both sides have a house edge now).

Odds:

Mega Millions ("no winner")
5dimes went: -1100 >>> -1250
Betonline opened: -1100

Powerball ("no winner"):
5dimes : NA (at the time of this post).
Betonline opened: -2800

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Other:

My "early" estimate for the Powerball is 11.8 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11 and 11.8 million tickets.

Note: 11.8 million tickets = 96.042...% chance of "no jackpot winner".

Even though there was "no jackpot winner" for the last Powerball, I don't plan on doing the "result summary" until I can get the "Actual Tickets Sold " figure.

Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 05/30/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,984
Finishing Bal: 26,061
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: 61
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (145)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (1/3 Kelly)" : 1,424.50 / 1,422.48
Won ($): 77
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance^^^: 95.65...% / 95.71...%
Odds Taken: -1850
Actual EV / Estimated EV^^^: 0.83...% / 0.88...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold^^^: 12,966,773 / 12,800,000

^^^: The "Estimated Chance", "Estimated EV" and "Estimated Tickets Sold" figures are based on when I actually had the bet (in other words I used the "2nd "late" estimate" figures)

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Odds:

The current odds haven't changed from my previous post (see post above).

"Wiz's Lotto Calculator^^^ ", Covid-19 "Adjustments" (update):

^^^ : Calculator

Note: I haven't mentioned this in a while, so I thought I better have a look to see how "accurate the calculator is" (at the moment).

Powerball (PB):

Currently, I would multiply the "Tickets sold (in millions)" figure the calculator gives you for the PB by:
(a) 10/13(~77%) for the"Wednesday Draw" and (b) 7/8 (87.5%) for the "Saturday Draw".

Note: During the "lock-down", as the jackpot's get higher, the "adjustment figures" seems to go "up a bit" (For jackpots between $37 to $125 million, the average adjustment figures for this roll is about 72% (Wednesday) and 82% (Saturday))
Note 2: Before the "covid lock-down", the adjustment figures I would use for the PB would have been ~ 93.5% ("Wednesday Draw") and ~ 107% ("Saturday Draw") for jackpots between $37 and $125 million.



Mega Millions (MM):

Currently, I would multiply the "Tickets sold (in millions)" figure the calculator gives you for the MM by:
(a) 8/9 (~89%) for the"Tuesday Draw" and (b) ~92% for the "Friday Draw".

Note: During the "lock-down", the current "adjustment figures" are similar to the average "adjustment figures".
Note 2: Before the "covid lock-down", the adjustment figures I would use for the MM would have been ~ 97% ("Tuesday Draw") and ~ 103% ("Friday Draw") for jackpots between $145 and $336 million.

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Reminder/Plans:

Before the "lock-down", I am pretty sure my opinion about the "Wiz's Calculator" would have been something like this:
It was excellent in terms of "ease of use" and "getting a figure quickly".
It was more than adequate for working out a "Probability of winner(s)" figure.

I plan to use the "calculator with the above adjustments" in conjunction with my own estimates, from now on (for comparison etc).

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Spelling... not checked thoroughly.

First of all, congrats on being + now!

Now in addition to figuring out adjustments for ticket sales due to COVID-19, you now have to do "riot adjustments" as well...... I'm guessing there will be even fewer ticket sales than usual due to certain areas being "no go" zones, curfews, etc....

Quote: SOOPOO

(snip)
Now in addition to figuring out adjustments for ticket sales due to COVID-19, you now have to do "riot adjustments" as well...... I'm guessing there will be even fewer ticket sales than usual due to certain areas being "no go" zones, curfews, etc....

You are most likely correct*** about this.
Maybe I will "account for it" by adjusting my bet size, eg by doing "37.5% or 40% Kelly" when the "no jackpot winner" has a "+ estimated EV" (instead of my usual "1/3 Kelly").

***: Even though I think you are correct, I don't know how much the ticket sales will go down (during this period).

My Bet(s):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 06/03/2020"
Odds: -1800
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.03...%
Estimated EV: 1.36...%
Bet Amount: 9.8% (about 2/5 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^ ( "Early" Estimate): I estimate 11.83*** million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11 and 11.83*** million tickets.

***: This figure is about 77% x "the Wiz's Calculator figure" (see my post at the bottom of page 42 of this thread for more details)

Note: If i wasn't using the "WIz's Calc", then I would have used 11.8 million as my "early" estimate.

Note 2: I changed to "2/5 (40%) Kelly" for my "bet amount" (see my previous post above, for the main reason(s) why).

Note 3: The other reason I think it is acceptable to change to "2/5 Kelly" now is because, my balance is roughly "square", so I don't think it looks like that I am "trying to bet bigger, just to force myself out of a bad result".

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Odds:

Mega Millions ("no winner")
5dimes went: -1100 >>> -1250 >>> -1350 <<< ( I wouldn't bet on these odds now).
Betonline went: -1100 >>> -1200

Powerball ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -1800
Betonline opened: -2800

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Reminder:
You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note : They are the spreadsheets with "...lotto..." in the name
Note 2: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.

Odds:

Mega Millions ("no winner")
5dimes went: -1100 >>> -1250 >>> -1350 >>> -1500 <<< ( negative Estimated EV)
Betonline went: -1100 >>> -1200

Powerball ("no winner"):
5dimes went : -1800 >>> -2000
Betonline opened: -2800

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 06/02/20) :

Opening Bal: 26,061
Finishing Bal: 26,204
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: 204
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (1/3 Kelly)" : 1,573 / 1,568.90
Won ($): 143
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 93.28...% / 93.17...%
Odds Taken: -1100
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 1.76...% / 1.64...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 21,041,202 / 21,400,000
"Wiz's Calc" Figure### : ~ 21,076,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

###: This is the figure after doing the "Covid-19" adjustments, see link here >>> link (for more details)

Note: For the next Powerball draw, the "Wiz's Calc" Figure will be the same as the Estimated Tickets Sold Figure (at least for the "early" estimate).

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Update (about 1230 am):

Changes I plan to make:
. I will stop saying things like "...likely range will be between..."
. When betting on the "no jackpot winner" (only side that has had a +EV so far for the "main bets"): I will use "whichever figure is larger" out of my own estimate and the "Wiz's Calc Figure (Adjusted for Covid-19)". see example below (for how I will probably write it for the next Mega Millions draw)

Example : " Based on an estimated 23.23 million tickets sold ("my estimate" was 23,036,000 and for the "Wiz's Calc Figure (Adjusted for Covid-19)" I got ~23.23 million tickets)."

Odds/Recommendations:

Powerball /PB ("no winner"):
5dimes went : -1800 >>> -2000 >>> -2500
Betonline opened: -2800

1: I estimate there is "no value" or "very limited value", in other words, i recommend you don't have a bet at the current odds.

Mega Millions/ MM ("no winner")
5dimes opened: -1250
Betonline opened: -1000

1: Don't bet with 5dimes because I estimate there is "no value", at the above odds.

2: If you don't want to use a spreadsheet, but want my "bet figures" for the "-1000 with betonline", then see below

EV: 1.87...%
"Full Kelly Bet ": 18.70...^
"What I would have bet" ("2/5 Kelly"): ~ 7.5%

Reminder 1: I strongly recommend you bet somewhere between "1/6 Kelly" and "2/3 Kelly", if you don't want to follow my current "2/5 Kelly" (the lower this number, the "safer" it is for your "bank roll" in the short-medium term).

Reminder 2: I currently can't bet with betonline (so this "bet recommendation" doesn't count towards my result summary).

----
"No jackpot winner" chances/ticket Estimates:

PB ("late" estimate): I estimate that there is a 95.97...% chance of "no winner", based on an estimated 12 million tickets sold (my "late" estimate" was 12 million and for the "Wiz's Calc Figure (Adjusted for Covid-19)" I got ~11.83 million tickets)."

Note: See the "Powerball" part of the link here >>> link <<< for the figures that will be used in the "result summary", because those were the figures I used when I had my bet.


MM: I estimate that there is a 92.60...% chance of "no winner", based on an estimated 23.23 million tickets sold (my estimate was 23.04 million and for the "Wiz's Calc Figure (Adjusted for Covid-19)" I got ~23.23 million tickets)."

Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 06/03/20) :

Opening Bal: 26,204
Finishing Bal: 23,612
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,388)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,594)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : 2,592 / 2,579.87

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 95.97...% / 96.03...%
Odds Taken: -1800
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 1.30...% / 1.36...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold###: 12,003,071 / 11,830,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

###: For my "early" estimate figures, see link here >>> link <<< for more details.

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Comment(s):

Figures have now been been added. I will change the "???" in the "result summary" above, once I know those figures.
I picked the wrong one to go from "1/3" to "2/5 Kelly", as I would have lost about $450 less (doing it the previous way).
I still plan to stick with "2/5 Kelly" for the foreseeable future.

This reminds me of say betting huge favourites in baseball. You maybe win 10 in a row and then one loss wipes out all the profits. Looks frustrating.

Quote: vegas

This reminds me of say betting huge favourites in baseball. You maybe win 10 in a row and then one loss wipes out all the profits. Looks frustrating.

I agree. Every time you claw back to positive the ball hits. But it is plus EV so eventually it should work.

Odds/Recommendations:

Mega Millions/ MM ("no winner")
5dimes went: -1250 >>> -1300
Betonline went: -1000 >>> -1100 >>> -1200

Powerball /PB ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -4000
Betonline opened: -8000

. I personally wouldn't bet on any of the current odds, because even with the best*** one, there is not enough of a "buffer" IMO
***: if you feel you must bet, then the Mega Millions with betonline @ -1200 is currently the best one (about 0.32% estimated EV, if you go by my ticket estimates).

Quote: ksdjdj

Odds/Recommendations:

Mega Millions/ MM ("no winner")
5dimes went: -1250 >>> -1300
Betonline went: -1000 >>> -1100 >>> -1200

Powerball /PB ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -4000
Betonline opened: -8000

. I personally wouldn't bet on any of the current odds, because even with the best*** one, there is not enough of a "buffer" IMO
***: if you feel you must bet, then the Mega Millions with betonline @ -1200 is currently the best one (about 0.32% estimated EV, if you go by my ticket estimates).

Odds haven't moved since my last post (see above).

----
Reminder:
You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note : They are the spreadsheets with "...lotto..." in the name
Note 2: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.

Quote: vegas

This reminds me of say betting huge favourites in baseball. You maybe win 10 in a row and then one loss wipes out all the profits. Looks frustrating

The results have been a little bit frustrating for me, but I try to focus on the "tickets sold (my estimates vs actual ticket sold)" more than "whether I win or lose" ***.

***: Obviously I want to "win overall", too.

Quote: unJon

I agree. Every time you claw back to positive the ball hits. But it is plus EV so eventually it should work.

I think so too.

Even though you didn't ask, this is just a reminder of the formulas I am using to work out the "estimated" and "actual###" chances of "no jackpot winner".

General Formula = ("chance of NO jackpot winner" ) ^ "number of tickets sold"

Mega Millions = (302,575,349/302,575,350) ^ "number of tickets sold"

Powerball = (292,201,337/292,201,338) ^ "number of tickets sold"


###: The "actual" chance/EV figures I give are really just a " different kind of estimate" , because roughly 70% of the tickets sold are "machine picks" / "random picks" and for about 30% of the tickets "the numbers are chosen by the player".

Note: IMO, this means that the "chance of NO jackpot winner" should be slightly higher, when compared to 100% "random picks" .

Note 2: If 100% of the tickets were "random picks", then the "actual" chance/EV I post in the "result summary" would be correct.

----
Other:

When I don't find any value (eg when I don't have a bet) I still plan to put up an "Actual Tickets sold vs Estimated Tickets sold" post (from now on).

I don't use "likely range" figures anymore with my ticket estimates, instead I am generally aiming for my estimate to be within "+/- 1/15" of the actual tickets sold , at least for the "small to medium" jackpots.

Note: With the "bigger jackpots", I will say what the "+/-" figure is (when applicable).

"Tickets Sold" Summary (Mega Millions - 06/05/20)

Chance of "no jackpot winner" - Actual / Estimated : 92.87...% / 92.60...%
Tickets sold - Actual*** / Estimated : 22,367,837 / 23,230,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Update (about 1235 am)

This is only the 2nd time the Powerball has reset to a $20 million jackpot (at least in "recent times") so I don't have much confidence in these "ticket estimates" (that is why I am providing two estimates)

"My rough estimate" : 8.7 million tickets

"Official Powerball Estimate" ^^^ : $21,315,279 (or about 10.66 million tickets)

^^^ https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20200606.pdf

Bet summaries:

Other Bet(s) (Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 06/09/2020)

i)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd"
Odds: -105
Chance: 13/25 (52%)
EV: 1.52...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": 0.80% ( "1/2 Kelly"^^^)
Actual Bet Amount: $210^^^
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: This time my actual bet is closer to "1/1.8 Kelly" (as long as you bet less or equal to "full kelly", then you have NOT "over bet your bank roll").


ii)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "16 Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6"
Odds: -990
Chance: 23/25 (92%)
EV: 1.29...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": 6.4% ( "1/2 Kelly")
Actual Bet Amount: $1,514.70
When will I have a bet: now


Reminder: For the above bets, I have dropped terms like "Estimated Chance" and "Estimated EV, because the "estimated chance/ev should be the same as the actual chance/ev" (assuming all the "Golden Mega Balls are weighted fairly / the same").

Reminder 2: For these "Jackpot Propositions". ATM I can get "to win 200"... as my "maximum bet with 5dimes"

---
Odds/other:

Powerball /PB ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -4000
Betonline opened: -8000

Mega Millions ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -1165
Betonline opened: -1000


For the "Main Bet(s)", from now on I will put up my ticket estimate(s), estimated EV's etc, either:
1) As soon as I have had my bet or
2) On the day/night of the draw
(whichever comes first)

Note (update about 630 pm): If there is a good / high chance that I won't be having a bet (eg " if the odds are -EV at 5dimes") then I may put up my ticket estimates earlier then what I just said above

Odds Update:

5dimes - Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 06/09/2020

"3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd " went: -105 >>> -115 (odds are -EV now)

"18*** Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6" went: -990 >>> -1050 (it is still a "good bet", with an "actual EV" of +0.76...%)

*** : The prop number changed from "16" to "18", because they added this new set of props (see below)

"5 Golden Mega Ball last digit is 1-5" @ -170 <<< the house edge is 4.70...%, at the current odds
"6 Golden Mega Ball last digit is 6-0" @ +130 <<< the house edge is 8%, at the current odds



5dimes - Powerball Jackpot Propositions - 06/06/2020

They have also added a similar set of props for the Powerball too (see below)

"55 Powerball number last digit is 1-5" @ -160 <<< the house edge is 6.25 %, at the current odds
"56 Powerball number last digit is 6-0" @ +120 <<< the house edge is 6.92...%, at the current odds

Important Update and Reminder:

In the past, the 5dimes interface (at least on some occasions) has given me the option to bet on "correlated plays" (if I had wanted to).

Note: If you attempt to do a "correlated play", most of the time you will get a warning that says something like this, "Selection ... is not permitted with another selection from the same sport in a Parlay. Please make a different selection".

If you are ever given the option to "bet a Parlay*** on the same market and/ or a related market", then I strongly recommend that you DO NOT have that Parlay***.

***: Includes all variations of "correlated or potentially correlated plays" (so things like "Parlay"," RIF". "If Bets", and "Action Reverse", within the same market)

One example of a "same or related market correlated parlay" would be (see below):

"54 Powerball number last digit is even @ -105" into "56 Powerball number last digit is 6-0 @ +120 "

If you manage to combine the two bets into a "parlay" ("all-up bet") then you would turn "two single bets that both have a -EV, into a "parlay with +EV" (see proof below)

Proof:
For the PB, there are 11 balls that the "last digit is 6-0" (6, 16, 26, 7,17, 8, 18, 9, 19, 10 and 20)

Of those, there are 7 balls that the "last digit is even" (6, 16, 26, 8, 18, 10 and 20)

There are 26 "Powerballs" in total.

"Correlated Parlay" RTP = chance x ("prop i" x "prop ii")

= 7/26 x (205/105) x ((120+100)/100) = 7/26 x "+329.5..." ($4.295...) = 1.1564...

RTP = 115.64...%
Therefore the EV = +15.64% (when you combine these two "-EV single bets" into a "parlay").


---
Even though I think I have written a post about the importance to "read and abide by all the T&Cs### at each sports-book before funding your account/having a bet", I thought this was a good time for a reminder.

Note: ### below is an example taken from >>> https://www.5dimes.eu/sb_rules.html << related to correlated plays (see under "General Rules"):

###: " At managerial discretion, correlated plays will be voided or split into separate straight wagers with the risk amount divided equally. Plays on correlated events include: multiple selections on the same team/player in the same event, multiple selections against the same team/player in the same event, or any other combination where one event directly affects further selections in the play, including Live In-Play wagers. Players will never be given the benefit if there is any doubt regarding intentions of correlated plays and winnings will be voided. No warnings will be given "

So in other words, even if you manage to get a " correlated play"/ "parlay" bet on, the best result that can happen is that your bet will be "voided" (graded as a push/"no-bet").

----
Spelling not checked thoroughly.

Recommendation(s):

Since there is a fairly high chance that I won't be betting on the next Mega Millions "no jackpot winner", here are my "Recommendation(s)" .

Estimated Tickets Sold ("early" / "non-hype"^^^): 23.7 million
Estimated Chance ("no winner"): 92.46...%
Current Odds (betonline): -1000
Estimated Ev: 1.71...%
"Full Kelly Bet": 17.12...% of "betting bank-roll"
"Recommended bet" (if you want to follow my "2/5 Kelly" method): ~6.85% of "betting bank-roll"

Current Odds (5dimes): -1165
Estimated Ev: 0.40...%

Note: Even though the "Estimated EV" for odds of -1165 is "slightly positive", I will not be having a bet with 5dimes at these odds (reason: "not enough buffer") .

^^^: Currently I don't know if there is any "hype in the news" for the jackpot ( it is over $400 million). But, if there is enough evidence of "hype in the news" closer to the draw, then I will probably use 24.6 million tickets as my "hype" ("late") estimate.

Note: If you know of any "hype news articles" please tell me about them, and I will then update my "ticket estimates", "Estimated Evs" etc, if I think it is necessary (after reading the "article(s)").

Note 2: I normally don't do an "early" or "late" estimate for the Mega Millions.

Quote: ksdjdj

June 6th, 2020 at 12:17:28 AM
(snip)
Update (about 1235 am)

This is only the 2nd time the Powerball has reset to a $20 million jackpot (at least in "recent times") so I don't have much confidence in these "ticket estimates" (that is why I am providing two estimates)

"My rough estimate" : 8.7 million tickets

"Official Powerball Estimate" ^^^ : $21,315,279 (or about 10.66 million tickets)

^^^ https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20200606.pdf

Actual Tickets Sold***: 10,675,612

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Also, with my "rough estimate", I forgot that there is usually a "fairly significant bump" in ticket sales in the draw after the "jackpot is hit" (when compared to the 2nd, 3rd ... draw after the "jackpot is hit")

Note: In hind-sight I should have said "I don't have much confidence in "my rough estimate"..

Note 2: Here is one link were I put more confidence in the "Official Powerball Estimate" >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/18/#post751563 <<< than mine and the "Pre-Covid Wiz's Calc'" figure/estimate (so that is why I posted two estimates above, in the quoted post)


----
Ticket Estimate:

With the next PB draw, I think 8 to 9.5 million tickets will be sold. This is the "early" estimate, and I also think the "no winner" will likely be -EV (so that is why I am giving it now, instead of waiting until after 5d put up odds).

Odds Update***:

"18 Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6" went: -990 >>> -1050 >>> -1100 (it is still a "+EV bet", with an "actual EV" of +0.3636...%)

***: I will do a more complete update later, in about 9-12 hours.

Odds:

Mega Millions ("no winner"):
5dimes went : -1165 >>> -1100 (estimated +EV)
Betonline opened: -1000 (estimated +EV)



5dimes - Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 06/09/2020
"18 Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6" went: -990 >>> -1050 >>> -1100 (it is still a "+EV bet", with an "actual EV" of +0.3636...%)

Powerball ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -3500 (estimated - EV)
Betonline opened: "no odds up ATM"

Note: Any other "lotto bet" odds not mentioned are currently "negative EV" (as far as I could see).

Recommendation(s):

I won't be betting*** on the next Mega Millions "no jackpot winner", but here is my "Recommendation" .

***: With 5dimes, it is still a positive Estimated EV (+0.77...%), but it is not enough buffer for me at the odds of -1100 (I was looking for at least +0.9% Estimated EV, before I had my bet).

Book: betonline
Estimated Tickets Sold ("late" / "bit-o'-hype"^^^): 24.0 million
Estimated Chance ("no winner"): 92.37...%
Current Odds (betonline): -1000
Estimated Ev: 1.61...%
"Full Kelly Bet": 16.11...% of "betting bank-roll"
"Recommended bet" (if you want to follow my "2/5 Kelly" method): ~6.45% of "betting bank-roll"

^^^: I could only find 4 or 5 articles, that didn't really seem to "hype up the draw too much" IMO, so that is why I only increased my estimate "a little bit"

---
Reminder/Other:

You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note : They are the spreadsheets with "...lotto..." in the name
Note 2: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.


I will be away from my pc for about 32 hours, so I probably won't do any updates until after (I don't like writing "longish posts" on my phone) .

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 06/09/20) :

Opening Bal: 26,204
Finishing Bal: 23,555
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,445)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,594)

Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 149

(i)
Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Bet ($): 210

Chance that the " Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd": 13/25 (or 52%)
Odds Taken: -105
Actual EV: 1.52...%

ii)
Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet ($): 1,514.70
Won ($): 153
Chance that the " Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6": 23/25 (92%)
Odds Taken: -990
Actual EV: 1.29...%

Amount won(lost) on the 06/09/20: (57)

----
Other:

Glad I didn't bet the -1100 with 5dimes for the "Mega Millions (MM) no jackpot winner" as the Jackpot was hit***.

***: It looks like the Powerball jackpot was hit, too.

Also I underestimated the "hype" for the MM draw and therefore was out by about 15% (my "late" estimate was 24,000,000 and the actual tickets sold was 27,603,789)

If you got on with betonline @ -1000, it still would have been a "+EV bet" (+ 0.40...% ) but if you followed my last"bet recommendation", you would have bet (and lost) about "4 x too much" when compared to what I would have recommended (if I knew "the actual chance and EV" before hand).

If you were "unlucky enough" to bet with 5dimes @ -1100, then you would have actually had a "slightly negative EV" for that bet.

General:

There is currently no "estimated +EV bets on offer".
I will start posting again, when there is a "+EV lotto bet".

Quote: ksdjdj

June 10th, 2020 at 11:34:11 PM
Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 06/09/20) :

Opening Bal: 26,204
Finishing Bal: 23,555
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,445)
(snip)

Correction: My "Opening Bal:" should have said "23,612" in the above quote.

See >>> link <<< here.

Quote: ksdjdj

Correction: My "Opening Bal:" should have said "23,612" in the above quote.

See >>> link <<< here.

So no recent +EV opportunities?

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Correction: My "Opening Bal:" should have said "23,612" in the above quote.

See >>> link <<< here.

So no recent +EV opportunities?

Not when I was looking.

But there was one prop that I noticed about two weeks ago, but by the time I logged in to have the bet, it changed to a -EV opportunity (it was the" Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd" , if you wanted to know what the prop was).

I think they fixed that one.

My Bet(s):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 7/07/2020"
Odds: -2500
Estimated Chance ***: 96.65...%
Estimated EV: 0.51...%
Bet Amount that I am aiming for: ~5.2% (about 2/5 Kelly)
Actual Bet Amount: $1,250
When did/will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 10.3 million tickets will be sold.

Note : At -2500 the bet is +EV, as long as the number of tickets sold is less than 11.86... million (just an FYI, I don't plan to write something like this every time I post a bet summary).

Odds - Mega Millions "No Jackpot Winner 7/07/2020":

5dimes went: -2500 >>> -4000 (-EV)
Betonline is currently : -3300 (-EV)

Note: I can't remember what betonline's earlier odds were earlier, but I would have written a "bet summary" or at least an "estimated EV" for them, if they were offering "+EV odds".

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 7/07/20) :

Opening Bal: 23,555
Finishing Bal: 23,605
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,395)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 149
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,544)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : 1,250 / 1,223.22
Won ($): 50
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 96.72...% / 96.65...%
Odds Taken: -2500
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 0.59...% / 0.51...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 10,072,571 / 10,300,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

Doesn't look like there will be any value for the "weekend draws" at the moment.