No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet
March 7th, 2020 at 2:59:25 AM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 03/06/20, I put down 2,736 to win 152.
Opening Bal: 23,156
Finishing Bal: 23,308
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,692)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.79...%
Odds Taken: -1800
Actual EV: +2.17...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,862,826
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Opening Bal: 23,156
Finishing Bal: 23,308
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,692)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.79...%
Odds Taken: -1800
Actual EV: +2.17...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,862,826
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
March 7th, 2020 at 1:11:15 PM
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Bet Summary:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/07/2020"
Odds: -1600
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.19...%
Estimated EV: 1.14%
Bet Amount: ~ 6.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used a "blended estimate" of 14.40 million tickets +/- 0.40 million tickets for this draw (blend of my own estimate and the "Wiz's Calculator estimate") .
Bet Summary:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/07/2020"
Odds: -1600
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.19...%
Estimated EV: 1.14%
Bet Amount: ~ 6.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used a "blended estimate" of 14.40 million tickets +/- 0.40 million tickets for this draw (blend of my own estimate and the "Wiz's Calculator estimate") .
March 8th, 2020 at 5:41:16 PM
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For the Powerball draw on the 03/07/20, I put down 1,424 to win 89.
Opening Bal: 23,308
Finishing Bal: 23,397
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,603)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.05...%
Odds Taken: -1600
Actual EV: +0.99...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,830,583
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Opening Bal: 23,308
Finishing Bal: 23,397
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,603)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.05...%
Odds Taken: -1600
Actual EV: +0.99...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,830,583
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
March 9th, 2020 at 9:56:38 AM
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Finally got caught up on my mm/powerball thread =P. Looks like some bad beats a couple weeks ago =/. Otherwise small grinds forward. Here's to hoping the odds come out wrong and the bankrolls head towards the sky =). I don't know why but this is one of my favorite threads...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
March 9th, 2020 at 12:50:37 PM
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Quote: RomesFinally got caught up on my mm/powerball thread =P. Looks like some bad beats a couple weeks ago =/. Otherwise small grinds forward. Here's to hoping the odds come out wrong and the bankrolls head towards the sky =). I don't know why but this is one of my favorite threads...
Because how often do you find a repeatable positive EV opportunity at on line casinos without having to worry about if you are 'abusing' their bonus rules?
March 10th, 2020 at 3:55:17 PM
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Bet Summary:
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/10/2020"
Odds: -1700
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.55%
Estimated EV: about 2.22%
Bet Amount: ~ 12.6% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.55% (based on about 10.61 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
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Odds:
There have been no changes for the MM and PB.
From now on, if I don't put up the "odds fluctuations/movements" then it means there were "no observed changes" by me.
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/10/2020"
Odds: -1700
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.55%
Estimated EV: about 2.22%
Bet Amount: ~ 12.6% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.55% (based on about 10.61 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
----
Odds:
There have been no changes for the MM and PB.
From now on, if I don't put up the "odds fluctuations/movements" then it means there were "no observed changes" by me.
March 11th, 2020 at 2:05:36 PM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 03/10/20, I put down 2,958 to win 174.
Opening Bal: 23,397
Finishing Bal: 23,571
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,429)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.88...%
Odds Taken: -1700
Actual EV: +2.588...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,563,584
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Opening Bal: 23,397
Finishing Bal: 23,571
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,429)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.88...%
Odds Taken: -1700
Actual EV: +2.588...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,563,584
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
March 11th, 2020 at 2:12:26 PM
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Bet Summary:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/11/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.41...%
Estimated EV: 1.78...%
Bet Amount: ~ 8.9% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used a "blended estimate" of 13.7 million tickets +/- 0.70 million tickets for this draw (blend of my own estimate and the "Wiz's Calculator estimate") .
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/11/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.41...%
Estimated EV: 1.78...%
Bet Amount: ~ 8.9% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used a "blended estimate" of 13.7 million tickets +/- 0.70 million tickets for this draw (blend of my own estimate and the "Wiz's Calculator estimate") .
March 12th, 2020 at 2:32:01 AM
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For the Powerball draw on the 03/11/20, I put down 2,100 to win 140.
Opening Bal: 23,571
Finishing Bal: 23,711
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,289)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.53...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +1.90...%
Tickets Sold***: 13,334,186
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Opening Bal: 23,571
Finishing Bal: 23,711
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,289)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.53...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +1.90...%
Tickets Sold***: 13,334,186
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
March 13th, 2020 at 2:00:34 PM
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Bet Summary:
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/13/2020"
Odds: -1600
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.51%
Estimated EV: about 2.54%
Bet Amount: ~ 13.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.51% (based on about 10.76 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/13/2020"
Odds: -1600
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.51%
Estimated EV: about 2.54%
Bet Amount: ~ 13.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.51% (based on about 10.76 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
March 14th, 2020 at 1:47:16 AM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 03/13/20, I put down 3,200 to win 200.
Opening Bal: 23,711
Finishing Bal: 23,911
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,089)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.80...%
Odds Taken: -1600
Actual EV: +2.85...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,827,891
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Opening Bal: 23,711
Finishing Bal: 23,911
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,089)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.80...%
Odds Taken: -1600
Actual EV: +2.85...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,827,891
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
March 14th, 2020 at 3:34:02 PM
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Bet Summary:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/14/2020"
Odds: -1165
Estimated Chance ^^^: 94.96...%
Estimated EV: 3.11...%
Bet Amount: ~ 12.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used a "blended estimate" of 15.1 million tickets +/- 5% for this draw (blend of my own estimate and the "Wiz's Calculator estimate") .
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Odds..:
PB: Opened -1450 and went to -1165
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/14/2020"
Odds: -1165
Estimated Chance ^^^: 94.96...%
Estimated EV: 3.11...%
Bet Amount: ~ 12.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used a "blended estimate" of 15.1 million tickets +/- 5% for this draw (blend of my own estimate and the "Wiz's Calculator estimate") .
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Odds..:
PB: Opened -1450 and went to -1165
March 14th, 2020 at 4:26:00 PM
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I would be careful with your 'ticket sale estimates'. I think they will drop as there are millions of Americans who are 'self quarantining'. On the other hand, with the plummeting stock market the brilliant may buy more tickets to make up for their 401k losses.
March 14th, 2020 at 4:57:09 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOI would be careful with your 'ticket sale estimates'. I think they will drop as there are millions of Americans who are 'self quarantining'. On the other hand, with the plummeting stock market the brilliant may buy more tickets to make up for their 401k losses.
You could be right, in that I think sales will drop a little bit too.
Then as people get bored "sitting at home doing nothing"( "self quarantining' ) they could start buying more*** tickets.
***: This is more likely, if you can you buy tickets online
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"Other stuff":
I just had a look at the CVO, and it is about 80% x AP (normally the CVO is a lot lower than the AP)
Does anyone know what is causing this (my guess is the recession, maybe?)
Note: CVO = "Cash value option" and AP = Estimated Jackpot (advertised jackpot)
March 15th, 2020 at 3:37:49 PM
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For the Powerball draw on the 03/14/20, I put down 2,900.85 to win 249.
Opening Bal: 23,911
Finishing Bal: 24,160
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,840)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.14...%
Odds Taken: -1165
Actual EV: +3.30...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,827,891
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Opening Bal: 23,911
Finishing Bal: 24,160
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,840)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.14...%
Odds Taken: -1165
Actual EV: +3.30...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,827,891
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
March 17th, 2020 at 5:17:00 PM
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Bet Summary:
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/17/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.41%
Estimated EV: about 2.83%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.41% (based on about 11.07 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
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Bonus:
They have a nice and simple bonus, details in the link below (too bad they couldn't give it a better name)
https://www.5dimes.eu/CoronaBonus.html
Please read all terms + conditions before accepting any bonuses.
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/17/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.41%
Estimated EV: about 2.83%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.41% (based on about 11.07 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
----
Bonus:
They have a nice and simple bonus, details in the link below (too bad they couldn't give it a better name)
https://www.5dimes.eu/CoronaBonus.html
Please read all terms + conditions before accepting any bonuses.
March 18th, 2020 at 1:52:27 PM
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Result:
For the Mega Millions draw on the 03/17/20, I put down 3,435 to win 229.
Opening Bal: 24,160
Finishing Bal: 24,389
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,611)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.06...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +3.54...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,998,399
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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Bet Summary:
Powerball:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/18/2020"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.55...%
Estimated EV: 4.65...%
Bet Amount: ~ 16.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I estimate 13.3 million tickets will be sold, with an estimated range between 12.1 to 14.5 million tickets.
For the Mega Millions draw on the 03/17/20, I put down 3,435 to win 229.
Opening Bal: 24,160
Finishing Bal: 24,389
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,611)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.06...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +3.54...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,998,399
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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Bet Summary:
Powerball:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/18/2020"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.55...%
Estimated EV: 4.65...%
Bet Amount: ~ 16.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I estimate 13.3 million tickets will be sold, with an estimated range between 12.1 to 14.5 million tickets.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 18, 2020
March 18th, 2020 at 10:45:18 PM
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For the Powerball draw on the 03/18/20, I put down 3,969 to win 378.
Opening Bal: 24,389
Finishing Bal: 24,767
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,233)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.93...%
Odds Taken: -1050
Actual EV: +5.06...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,137,341
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Opening Bal: 24,389
Finishing Bal: 24,767
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,233)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.93...%
Odds Taken: -1050
Actual EV: +5.06...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,137,341
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
March 20th, 2020 at 12:55:25 PM
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Looks like 5d isn't offering the lotto bets at the moment, so this thread may be dormant*** for a while.
***: It used to be fairly common for them to "miss 1 to 2 draws" after every 10 or so, but I think this is more to do with the Coronavirus, so I don't know how many draws will be "missed".
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Update (about 115 pm, Pac time)
Extra/Bonus:
https://www.5dimes.eu/CoronaBonus.html
The COB-19 Bonus (see link above) is now a 19% cash bonus (up from 15%) and you can use it for anything^^^ on their site.
^^^: "...available to use in all our features, Sports, Casinos, Live Dealer, Mini Games, Lottery and even the Poker room."
The bonus is still not that big, but it is 'easily beatable' with only a "...5 times rollover of the deposit..." needed before you can withdraw.
The only negative at the moment is that they are claiming that "...due to the increased volume in redemptions, payouts may take from 48 up to 96 hours of an accepted request to be processed..."
Note 1: Currently, you can't claim a new bonus until the payout has been completed, so that is not very good for the AP.
Note 2: Payouts are usually a lot faster than that.
Lastly, please read all terms and conditions on the 5dimes website before you accept any bonus.
***: It used to be fairly common for them to "miss 1 to 2 draws" after every 10 or so, but I think this is more to do with the Coronavirus, so I don't know how many draws will be "missed".
----
Update (about 115 pm, Pac time)
Extra/Bonus:
https://www.5dimes.eu/CoronaBonus.html
The COB-19 Bonus (see link above) is now a 19% cash bonus (up from 15%) and you can use it for anything^^^ on their site.
^^^: "...available to use in all our features, Sports, Casinos, Live Dealer, Mini Games, Lottery and even the Poker room."
The bonus is still not that big, but it is 'easily beatable' with only a "...5 times rollover of the deposit..." needed before you can withdraw.
The only negative at the moment is that they are claiming that "...due to the increased volume in redemptions, payouts may take from 48 up to 96 hours of an accepted request to be processed..."
Note 1: Currently, you can't claim a new bonus until the payout has been completed, so that is not very good for the AP.
Note 2: Payouts are usually a lot faster than that.
Lastly, please read all terms and conditions on the 5dimes website before you accept any bonus.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 20, 2020
March 20th, 2020 at 1:03:18 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjLooks like the 5d isn't offering the lotto bets at the moment, so this thread may be dormant*** for a while.
***: It used to be fairly common for them to "miss 1 to 2 draws" after every 10 or so, but I think this is more to do with the Coronavirus, so I don't know how many draws will be "missed".
It’s an interesting question how Coronavirus will affect lotto sales.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
March 20th, 2020 at 1:48:40 PM
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Quote: unJonIt’s an interesting question how Coronavirus will affect lotto sales.
I agree with most of what SOOPOO said, though I am not sure about the last sentence (see quote below)
Quote: SOOPOOI would be careful with your 'ticket sale estimates'. I think they will drop as there are millions of Americans who are 'self quarantining'. On the other hand, with the plummeting stock market the brilliant may buy more tickets to make up for their 401k losses.
Also, I think the PB and MM lotto sales will be down by about 20%***, when compared to past draws with similar jackpots.
***: For this figure, I assumed that the US isn't in "Full Lockdown" at the moment.
March 20th, 2020 at 6:38:30 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj
Also, I think the PB and MM lotto sales will be down by about 20%***, when compared to past draws with similar jackpots.
I would expect it to be down a lot more than 20%.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
March 20th, 2020 at 7:30:22 PM
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I just noticed that they now have the MM odds up, so I will be having 3000 on the no at -1500
Note: sorry, i didn't get to do it properly, as I am at work and only just saw it now.
Note: sorry, i didn't get to do it properly, as I am at work and only just saw it now.
March 21st, 2020 at 12:53:34 AM
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For the Powerball draw on the 03/20/20, I put down 3,000 to win 200.
Opening Bal: 24,767
Finishing Bal: 24,967
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,033)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.19...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +3.67...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,594,430
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other:
1. If I had time to do it properly, I would have had about 4,380 @ -1500 for the above MM draw (As I would have used 9 million tickets as my sales estimate)
2. From now on I will post the estimated chances , whether there are any odds on offer or not (see next post for the PB on the 03/21/20, as an example).
Opening Bal: 24,767
Finishing Bal: 24,967
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,033)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.19...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +3.67...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,594,430
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other:
1. If I had time to do it properly, I would have had about 4,380 @ -1500 for the above MM draw (As I would have used 9 million tickets as my sales estimate)
2. From now on I will post the estimated chances , whether there are any odds on offer or not (see next post for the PB on the 03/21/20, as an example).
March 21st, 2020 at 1:02:11 AM
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Game: Powerball (PB)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/21/2020"
Odds: ???
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.71...%
Estimated EV: ???
Bet Amount: ??? (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: ???
^^^: I estimate 12.8 million tickets will be sold, with an estimated range between 11.0 to 13.7 million tickets (this figure assumes that "full lock-down" hasn't commenced yet).
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Edit/Update (about 315 am)
Near the bottom of this post is a "ready reckoner" like table for the current PB draw:
When to use: If you notice that 5dimes has put up odds for this PB draw, and I haven't updated my thread.
How to use (see steps below):
1. See what the bookie (5dimes) is offering on the "no jackpot winner".
2. Look in the Odds Column in the table and see which odds are "closest to the odds on offer" ###
3. Line it up with the corresponding % in the Bet Amount Column.
4. Convert that % from step 3. into $ (by multiplying it by your "betting bank-roll"/ "betting budget").
5. Have the amount from step 4 on the "no jackpot winner".
###: For "ease of use", if the odds offered by the bookie are "in the middle" then have the "smaller bet amount" (see example).
Example: If the bookie offers -1100 for the "no winner", then I would use 15.5% as my "Bet amount", as it is "in the middle", between -1150 and -1050.
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Spelling not checked, and I hope I explained it well enough
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/21/2020"
Odds: ???
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.71...%
Estimated EV: ???
Bet Amount: ??? (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: ???
^^^: I estimate 12.8 million tickets will be sold, with an estimated range between 11.0 to 13.7 million tickets (this figure assumes that "full lock-down" hasn't commenced yet).
----
Edit/Update (about 315 am)
Near the bottom of this post is a "ready reckoner" like table for the current PB draw:
When to use: If you notice that 5dimes has put up odds for this PB draw, and I haven't updated my thread.
How to use (see steps below):
1. See what the bookie (5dimes) is offering on the "no jackpot winner".
2. Look in the Odds Column in the table and see which odds are "closest to the odds on offer" ###
3. Line it up with the corresponding % in the Bet Amount Column.
4. Convert that % from step 3. into $ (by multiplying it by your "betting bank-roll"/ "betting budget").
5. Have the amount from step 4 on the "no jackpot winner".
###: For "ease of use", if the odds offered by the bookie are "in the middle" then have the "smaller bet amount" (see example).
Example: If the bookie offers -1100 for the "no winner", then I would use 15.5% as my "Bet amount", as it is "in the middle", between -1150 and -1050.
| Odds | Estimated EV | Bet Amount (~1/3 Kelly) |
|---|---|---|
| -1250 | 3.37% | 14.0% |
| -1150 | 4.03% | 15.5% |
| -1050 | 4.83% | 16.9% |
| -1000 | 5.28% | 17.6% |
| -950 | 5.78% | 18.3% |
| -900 | 6.34% | 19.0% |
| -850 | 6.97% | 19.7% |
| -800 | 7.67% | 20.5% |
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Spelling not checked, and I hope I explained it well enough
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 21, 2020
March 21st, 2020 at 6:25:26 PM
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Written from phone.
I am not betting on the PB at the moment, as they have just put up the following odds:
Yes winner: +2000
No winner: -4000
There is likely a house edge on either prop If my estimate is close to correct:
The yes prop has a ~9.9% house edge
And the no prop has a ~1.9% house edge
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Update (about 850 pm, pac time):
I checked every 10-15 minutes and the odds never changed for the 1.5 hours they had a market up for.
I am not betting on the PB at the moment, as they have just put up the following odds:
Yes winner: +2000
No winner: -4000
There is likely a house edge on either prop If my estimate is close to correct:
The yes prop has a ~9.9% house edge
And the no prop has a ~1.9% house edge
----
Update (about 850 pm, pac time):
I checked every 10-15 minutes and the odds never changed for the 1.5 hours they had a market up for.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 21, 2020
March 22nd, 2020 at 1:50:59 PM
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Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/24/2020"
Odds: -1750
Estimated Chance ^^^: 97.19...%
Estimated EV: 2.75...%
Bet Amount: 16.1% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
^^^: I estimate 8.6 million tickets will be sold, with an estimated range between 7.5 to 9.5 million tickets (these figures assume that 20% to 30% of the country is in "lock-down" by the time of the drawing)
Note: The 2.75% Estimated EV may not seem that much, but it is still worth a bit more than $480 to any person that can "afford to make a single max bet safely" (I won't be posting this every time I do a bet summary).
---
The next Powerball odds are currently -2500 for the "no jackpot winner" and +1400 for the "Jackpot winner".
There is currently no value on either bet, so I will wait and see closer to the draw date.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/24/2020"
Odds: -1750
Estimated Chance ^^^: 97.19...%
Estimated EV: 2.75...%
Bet Amount: 16.1% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
^^^: I estimate 8.6 million tickets will be sold, with an estimated range between 7.5 to 9.5 million tickets (these figures assume that 20% to 30% of the country is in "lock-down" by the time of the drawing)
Note: The 2.75% Estimated EV may not seem that much, but it is still worth a bit more than $480 to any person that can "afford to make a single max bet safely" (I won't be posting this every time I do a bet summary).
---
The next Powerball odds are currently -2500 for the "no jackpot winner" and +1400 for the "Jackpot winner".
There is currently no value on either bet, so I will wait and see closer to the draw date.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 22, 2020
March 24th, 2020 at 4:23:08 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip) Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/24/2020"
Odds: -1750
Estimated Chance ^^^: 97.19...%
Estimated EV: 2.75...%
Bet Amount: 16.1% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
^^^: I estimate 8.6 million tickets will be sold, with an estimated range between 7.5 to 9.5 million tickets (these figures assume that 20% to 30% of the country is in "lock-down" by the time of the drawing) (snip)
MM Odds update:
Odds: -1600
Estimated EV: ~3.26%
Bet Amount (if you haven't your bet yet): 17.4% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Already had my bet @ -1750.
Quote:(snip)The next Powerball odds are currently -2500 for the "no jackpot winner"(snip)
PB Odds update:
PB is now -2150 for the "no jackpot winner" but I will wait and see what happens*** in the next 24 hours or so, as there is only a slight estimated edge at the moment (less than 0.5%)
***: Probably looking for at least -1900 (or better) before I have a bet on this PB.
March 25th, 2020 at 3:20:23 PM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 03/24/20, I put down 4,007.50 to win 229.
Opening Bal: 24,967
Finishing Bal: 25,196
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (804)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.33...%
Odds Taken: -1750
Actual EV: +2.89...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,187,728
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Error/Correction:
I wrote Poweball but I meant to write Mega Millions in the previous "result summary", see link below:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/33/#post761158
Opening Bal: 24,967
Finishing Bal: 25,196
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (804)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.33...%
Odds Taken: -1750
Actual EV: +2.89...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,187,728
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Error/Correction:
I wrote Poweball but I meant to write Mega Millions in the previous "result summary", see link below:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/33/#post761158
March 25th, 2020 at 3:42:00 PM
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Bet Summaries:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/25/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.10...%
Estimated EV: 1.16...%
Bet Amount: 7.4% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
^^^: I estimate 11.6 million tickets (or less) will be sold.
----
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/27/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 97.06...%
Estimated EV: 3.76...%
Bet Amount: 9.1% (about 1/6### Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Half now, and I will attempt to have half on or near the draw date.
***: I estimate 9 million tickets (or less) will be sold.
###: Even though I think the odds will lengthen, I also think there is a chance that they could take the market down again, so that is why I am having part of the bet early (I plan to have 1/3 Kelly in total, like I normally do).
----
Odds observations:
PB went: -2500 >> -2150 >> -1900 (current odds)
MM opened: -1450
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/25/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.10...%
Estimated EV: 1.16...%
Bet Amount: 7.4% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
^^^: I estimate 11.6 million tickets (or less) will be sold.
----
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/27/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 97.06...%
Estimated EV: 3.76...%
Bet Amount: 9.1% (about 1/6### Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Half now, and I will attempt to have half on or near the draw date.
***: I estimate 9 million tickets (or less) will be sold.
###: Even though I think the odds will lengthen, I also think there is a chance that they could take the market down again, so that is why I am having part of the bet early (I plan to have 1/3 Kelly in total, like I normally do).
----
Odds observations:
PB went: -2500 >> -2150 >> -1900 (current odds)
MM opened: -1450
March 25th, 2020 at 6:23:10 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/25/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.10...%
Estimated EV: 1.16...%
Bet Amount: 7.4% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
^^^: I estimate 11.6 million tickets (or less) will be sold.
(snip)
----
(snip)
Odds observations:
PB went: -2500 >> -2150 >> -1900 (current odds)
(snip)
Argh, I should have waited, as the PB has lengthened quite a bit.
Note: If you haven't had a bet on the above PB "no jackpot winner" yet, then see the new bet summary below:
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/25/2020"
Odds: -1300
Estimated Chance: 96.10...%
Estimated EV: 3.49...%
Bet Amount: 15.1% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When did I have a bet: I already had a bet @ -1900 (I will probably have another 4% of my "bank roll" on at the current odds)
----
Odds Observations:
PB: -2500 >>> -2150 >>> -1900 >>> -1300 (current odds)
MM: -1450
March 25th, 2020 at 10:57:56 PM
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For the Powerball draw on the 03/25/20, I put down 1,862 to win 98, and then another 975 to win 75 (total win 173).
Opening Bal: 25,196
Finishing Bal: 25,369
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (631)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.35...%
Average Odds Taken: about -1640 (most @ -1900 and some @ -1300)
Actual EV: +2.23...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,847,664
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other:
Looks like once the PB jackpot has been hit, it will then reset to $20 million with a guaranteed increase of $2 million per draw (it used to be $40 million with a guaranteed increase of $10 million).
Besides that, it looks like the odds of winning the jackpot won't be changed at the moment.
See link >>> https://www.powerball.com/notice <<< for more information about this.
I haven't seen if there are any changes to Mega Millions yet.
Opening Bal: 25,196
Finishing Bal: 25,369
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (631)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.35...%
Average Odds Taken: about -1640 (most @ -1900 and some @ -1300)
Actual EV: +2.23...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,847,664
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other:
Looks like once the PB jackpot has been hit, it will then reset to $20 million with a guaranteed increase of $2 million per draw (it used to be $40 million with a guaranteed increase of $10 million).
Besides that, it looks like the odds of winning the jackpot won't be changed at the moment.
See link >>> https://www.powerball.com/notice <<< for more information about this.
I haven't seen if there are any changes to Mega Millions yet.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 25, 2020
March 26th, 2020 at 1:18:12 PM
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Odds:
"No Winner"
MM: -1450 >>> -1700 (current)
PB: opened -1500
"No Winner"
MM: -1450 >>> -1700 (current)
PB: opened -1500
March 27th, 2020 at 5:43:32 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/27/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 97.06...%
Estimated EV: 3.76...%
Bet Amount: 9.1% (about 1/6### Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Half now, and I will attempt to have half on or near the draw date.
***: I estimate 9 million tickets (or less) will be sold.
###: Even though I think the odds will lengthen, I also think there is a chance that they could take the market down again, so that is why I am having part of the bet early (I plan to have 1/3 Kelly in total, like I normally do).
(snip)
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/27/2020"
Odds: -1700
Estimated Chance: 97.06...%
Estimated EV: 2.77...%
Bet Amount: 7.9% (about 1/6 Kelly each bet, so it is about 1/3 Kelly when combining the two bets together)
When will I have a bet: I had "half" my bet @ -1450 and I am having the other "half" now @ -1700.
Note: I wanted to wait as late as possible to have the 2nd bet, but I am working today so I decided to have it now.
-----
Odds Observations:
MM: -1450 >>> -1700
PB: -1500
March 28th, 2020 at 4:50:45 AM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 03/27/20, I put down 2,320 to win 160, and then another 1,989 to win 117 (total win 277).
Opening Bal: 25,369
Finishing Bal: 25,646
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (354)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.29...%
Average Odds Taken: about -1,556
Actual EV: +3.54...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,307,403
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other:
I will probably put up a "bet summary" for the next Powerball within 11 hours.
Opening Bal: 25,369
Finishing Bal: 25,646
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (354)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.29...%
Average Odds Taken: about -1,556
Actual EV: +3.54...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,307,403
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other:
I will probably put up a "bet summary" for the next Powerball within 11 hours.
March 28th, 2020 at 1:56:54 PM
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Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/28/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ***: 95.97...%
Estimated EV: 2.37...%
Bet Amount: 11.9% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now^^^
***: I estimate that a bit less than 12 million tickets will be sold.
^^^: I originally wanted to wait as long as possible, but I will be too busy today.
----
Odds and "buy online" data:
PB: -1500
MM: there is no market up at this time.
Here are the states that you can buy individual tickets for the Mega Millions online:
• Georgia
• Illinois
• Kentucky
• Michigan
• New Hampshire
• North Carolina
• North Dakota
Subscription lottery purchases only (online):
• New York
• Virginia
Also, ... where to buy Powerball tickets online:
Illinois and Georgia (where Powerball is specifically "confirmed")
Kentucky, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania
(other states that offer legal online lottery purchases in general, but I couldn't find any Powerball specific info)
Lastly, if you see any errors or omissions with these "able to legally buy online" lists, then please post a reply/correction, thanks.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/28/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ***: 95.97...%
Estimated EV: 2.37...%
Bet Amount: 11.9% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now^^^
***: I estimate that a bit less than 12 million tickets will be sold.
^^^: I originally wanted to wait as long as possible, but I will be too busy today.
----
Odds and "buy online" data:
PB: -1500
MM: there is no market up at this time.
Here are the states that you can buy individual tickets for the Mega Millions online:
• Georgia
• Illinois
• Kentucky
• Michigan
• New Hampshire
• North Carolina
• North Dakota
Subscription lottery purchases only (online):
• New York
• Virginia
Also, ... where to buy Powerball tickets online:
Illinois and Georgia (where Powerball is specifically "confirmed")
Kentucky, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania
(other states that offer legal online lottery purchases in general, but I couldn't find any Powerball specific info)
Lastly, if you see any errors or omissions with these "able to legally buy online" lists, then please post a reply/correction, thanks.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 28, 2020
March 29th, 2020 at 12:52:25 AM
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For the Powerball draw on the 03/28/20, I put down 3,060 to win 204, .
Opening Bal: 25,646
Finishing Bal: 25,850
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (150)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.03...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +2.43...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,820,223
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Odds:
For the PB, the odds were -1500 all the way through betting, at least for the times that I checked.
Opening Bal: 25,646
Finishing Bal: 25,850
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (150)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.03...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +2.43...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,820,223
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Odds:
For the PB, the odds were -1500 all the way through betting, at least for the times that I checked.
March 31st, 2020 at 5:45:23 PM
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Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/31/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ***: 97.19...%
Estimated EV: 3.67...%
Bet Amount: 18.4% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
***: I estimate 8.6 million tickets (or less) will be sold and I wouldn't be too surprised if it is under 7.8 million.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/31/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ***: 97.19...%
Estimated EV: 3.67...%
Bet Amount: 18.4% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
***: I estimate 8.6 million tickets (or less) will be sold and I wouldn't be too surprised if it is under 7.8 million.
March 31st, 2020 at 5:48:17 PM
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I think I read that after the next jackpot they are going to start the jackpots lower than they previously did, as sales are way down. I'm guessing you must be aware of this!?
March 31st, 2020 at 6:29:35 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOI think I read that after the next jackpot they are going to start the jackpots lower than they previously did, as sales are way down. I'm guessing you must be aware of this!?
I am aware that the Powerball*** is going to do that , but I don't know what the Mega Millions is planning, yet.
*** https://www.powerball.com/notice
March 31st, 2020 at 9:29:24 PM
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Hopefully back in the black on the next drawing! Thanks for all the updates! Love reading through this thread and checking out the numbers =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
April 1st, 2020 at 2:07:17 PM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 03/31/20, I put down 4,755 to win 317, .
Opening Bal: 25,850
Finishing Bal: 26,167
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 167
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.38...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +3.87...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,022,921
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
---
Betting Summary:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/01/2020"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.30...%
Estimated EV: 3.30...%
Bet Amount: 15.2% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I am using 11 million tickets as my estimate, and I think that the most likely range will be between 10 and 11 million tickets .
Opening Bal: 25,850
Finishing Bal: 26,167
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 167
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.38...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: +3.87...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,022,921
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
---
Betting Summary:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/01/2020"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.30...%
Estimated EV: 3.30...%
Bet Amount: 15.2% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I am using 11 million tickets as my estimate, and I think that the most likely range will be between 10 and 11 million tickets .
April 2nd, 2020 at 2:26:51 PM
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For the Powerball draw on the 04/01/20, I put down 3,973.75 to win 289, .
Opening Bal: 26,167
Finishing Bal: 26,456
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 456
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.34...%
Odds Taken: -1375
Actual EV: +3.35...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,875,742
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Opening Bal: 26,167
Finishing Bal: 26,456
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 456
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.34...%
Odds Taken: -1375
Actual EV: +3.35...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,875,742
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
April 2nd, 2020 at 2:51:32 PM
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Bet Summaries:
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/03/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 97.13...%
Estimated EV: 3.83...%
Bet Amount: 18.5% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
***: I estimate 8.8 million tickets (or less) will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 8 to 8.8 million tickets.
Note: there is a "date mismatch" for the above MM draw, so I recommend you "live chat" to confirm that you are betting on the 04/03/2020, before you have your bet.
----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/04/2020"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.00...%
Estimated EV: 2.99...%
Bet Amount: 13.7% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I estimate 11.9 million tickets (or less) will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11.1 to 11.9 million tickets.
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/03/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 97.13...%
Estimated EV: 3.83...%
Bet Amount: 18.5% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
***: I estimate 8.8 million tickets (or less) will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 8 to 8.8 million tickets.
Note: there is a "date mismatch" for the above MM draw, so I recommend you "live chat" to confirm that you are betting on the 04/03/2020, before you have your bet.
----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/04/2020"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.00...%
Estimated EV: 2.99...%
Bet Amount: 13.7% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I estimate 11.9 million tickets (or less) will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11.1 to 11.9 million tickets.
April 3rd, 2020 at 3:24:20 PM
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Odds and other:
MM "no jackpot winner" has gone: -1450 to -1500
PB " " has gone: -1375 to -1300, so about a 14.7% "bet amount" and about a 3.4% "Estimated EV" (if you haven't bet yet).
Also, the market for MM has been fixed, as there is no "date mismatch" anymore.
MM "no jackpot winner" has gone: -1450 to -1500
PB " " has gone: -1375 to -1300, so about a 14.7% "bet amount" and about a 3.4% "Estimated EV" (if you haven't bet yet).
Also, the market for MM has been fixed, as there is no "date mismatch" anymore.
April 4th, 2020 at 12:53:27 AM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 04/03/20, I put down 4,901 to win 338, .
Opening Bal: 26,456
Finishing Bal: 26,794
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 794
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.27...%
Odds Taken: -1450
Actual EV: +3.98...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,366,408
Opening Bal: 26,456
Finishing Bal: 26,794
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 794
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.27...%
Odds Taken: -1450
Actual EV: +3.98...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,366,408
April 4th, 2020 at 2:31:39 PM
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Important Update(s):
Once the jackpot is hit for the MM "it will reset to a guaranteed annuitized value of $20 million..." and "...the rate at which the jackpot increases will be established based on game sales and interest rates, with no fixed minimum amount." (see link below for full news release)
https://www.megamillions.com/News/2020/Mega-Millions-to-Adjust-Starting-Jackpot-Amount,-E.aspx
Note: I was expecting something like this, as it is similar to what the PB did about a week and a half ago (see link below)
https://www.powerball.com/notice (I think I have posted this link about two times already in this thread)
Lastly, as far as I can tell, the odds for winning the MM and PB Jackpots will remained unchanged, at this time.
Once the jackpot is hit for the MM "it will reset to a guaranteed annuitized value of $20 million..." and "...the rate at which the jackpot increases will be established based on game sales and interest rates, with no fixed minimum amount." (see link below for full news release)
https://www.megamillions.com/News/2020/Mega-Millions-to-Adjust-Starting-Jackpot-Amount,-E.aspx
Note: I was expecting something like this, as it is similar to what the PB did about a week and a half ago (see link below)
https://www.powerball.com/notice (I think I have posted this link about two times already in this thread)
Lastly, as far as I can tell, the odds for winning the MM and PB Jackpots will remained unchanged, at this time.
April 4th, 2020 at 4:44:01 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj
(snip)
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/04/2020"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.00...%
Estimated EV: 2.99...%
Bet Amount: 13.7% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I estimate 11.9 million tickets (or less) will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11.1 to 11.9 million tickets.
For the Powerball, I am going to have another ~2% of my "bank roll" @ -1165 on the "No Jackpot Winner 04/04/2020"
Note: If you haven't had a bet yet, then you should have about 16.5% (if betting ~1/3 Kelly)
Below are the current odds changes for PB
-1375 >>> -1300 >>> -1165
April 4th, 2020 at 9:41:06 PM
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For the Powerball draw on the 04/04/20, I put down 4,207.15 for a combined win of 313.
Opening Bal: 26,794
Finishing Bal: 27,107
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,107
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.04...%
"Average" Odds Taken: about -1344
Actual EV: +3.19...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,790,833
Opening Bal: 26,794
Finishing Bal: 27,107
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,107
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.04...%
"Average" Odds Taken: about -1344
Actual EV: +3.19...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,790,833
April 7th, 2020 at 12:38:44 AM
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Bet Summaries:
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/07/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 97.22...%
Estimated EV: 3.93...%
Bet Amount: 19.0% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
***: I estimate 8.5 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 7.7 to 8.5 million tickets.
----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/08/2020"
Odds: -1250
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.17...%
Estimated EV: 3.86...%
Bet Amount: 16.1% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I estimate 11.4 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 10.6 to 11.4 million tickets.
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Other:
For the results summaries below, I forgot to put the "lotto report, ticket comparison" link, so here it is >>>> http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/35/#post763425
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/35/#post763537
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/07/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 97.22...%
Estimated EV: 3.93...%
Bet Amount: 19.0% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
***: I estimate 8.5 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 7.7 to 8.5 million tickets.
----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/08/2020"
Odds: -1250
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.17...%
Estimated EV: 3.86...%
Bet Amount: 16.1% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I estimate 11.4 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 10.6 to 11.4 million tickets.
---
Other:
For the results summaries below, I forgot to put the "lotto report, ticket comparison" link, so here it is >>>> http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/35/#post763425
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/35/#post763537
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Apr 7, 2020
