ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
December 28th, 2019 at 1:39:57 PM permalink
Betting Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/28/2019"
Odds: -1000
Estimated Chance: 93.44...% (based on an estimate of 19.8*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +2.79...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 9.3% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount (\$): \$2,430
When will I have a bet: now

***: I think the range should be between 18.3 and 19.8 million tickets ("late estimate").

----
Other:

They put the PB odds up late for this draw (it happened sometime in the last 9 hours).
The "No Jackpot Winner" for the Mega Millions is -2500, I will "wait and see", so no bet at the moment for MM.
Wizard

Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 24217
December 28th, 2019 at 2:45:15 PM permalink
Let's look at the drawings for 12/28 and 12/31

Date: Dec 31
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 55M
Estimated sales: 10.02M
Probability of winner: 3.26%
Probability no winner: 96.74%
Fair line no winner: -2967
5 Dimes line: -2500
Wiz bet: \$125 to win \$5

Date: Dec 28
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 200M
Estimated sales: 18.31M
Probability of winner: 6.08%
Probability no winner: 93.92%
Fair line no winner: -1545
5 Dimes line: -1000
Wiz bet: \$300 to win \$30.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
December 29th, 2019 at 12:45:46 PM permalink
For the Powerball draw on the 12/28/19, I put 2,430 down to win 243.

Opening Bal: 26,052
Finishing Bal: 26,295
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 295
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 93.64...%
Odds Taken: -1000
Actual EV: 3.01...%
Tickets Sold***: 19,170,286
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
December 29th, 2019 at 1:08:42 PM permalink
Betting Summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19"
Odds: -2150
Estimated Chance: 96.33...% (based on an estimate of 11.3^^^ million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +0.81...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 5.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount (\$): \$1,548
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: My range is 9.8 to 11.3 million tickets.
Also, normally I won't have a bet when the "Estimated EV" is this low, but because the odds are so small (-2150) I will make an exception (the actual sales need to be less than ~13.75 million "tickets" for it to still be a "good bet" at -2150).

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/01/20"
Odds: -900
Estimated Chance: 93.38...% (based on an estimate of 20*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.76...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 11.3% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount if "MM bet Loses" (\$): \$2,790 ###
Bet Amount if "MM bet Wins" (\$): \$2,979 ###
When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" range is 18 to 20 million tickets.

###: Doing an "IF/RIF bet", so that is why I have two different amounts as my bet for the PB, for more info see link here >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/17/#post750733 >>>> then scroll down to "other: ".
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 29, 2019
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
December 29th, 2019 at 1:54:25 PM permalink
"Odds sway" update:

For odds worse than -1600, I will tend to "wait and see" rather than get my bet on "as early as possible" (since the EV is usually quite small for these bets anyway).

Important: For worse than -1600, I haven't made enough observations to tell you which way the odds move in general , but I think the "wait and see" approach is a fair one to use, until I have observed more draws at these or similar odds.

Because of the reason(s) above, my updated "odds sway thoughts" are below:

"tiny odds": = odds worse than -1600
"small odds": = odds between about -1600 and -250
"big odds" = odds greater than +140
"low estimated EV" = a figure up to 10%
"high estimated EV" = a figure of about 30% (or more)

The current, "average odds sway", would look like this:
1. For draws with "tiny odds" for the "no prop", I haven't made enough observations yet to determine a "common odds sway". So I have decided to use a "wait and see what the odds do" approach rather than bet "as soon as the odds are put up", at this time:

2. For draws with a "low estimated EV" and/or "small odds" for the "no prop", I think a "common odds sway" is as follows:
(a) When the odds have just been put up, the odds will be good for the "no prop".
(b) Somewhere "in the middle of betting", the odds on the "no prop" usually get worse.
(c) Then "close to the draw (the day/night of the draw), the odds on the "no prop" often get a bit better (probably because the "rec punters" are getting their bets on, closer to the draw?).

3. For draws with a "high estimated EV" and/or "big odds" for the "no prop", I think a "common odds sway" is as follows:
(a) When the odds have just been put up, the odds will be REALLY good for the "no prop".
(b) Then the "no prop" odds will get "slaughtered/smashed" ***, until all the "smart punters" stop betting (or the draw has commenced)

***: see link below, for an example of a typical "type 2. (big odds)" draw (scroll down to the parts that say "other info", "Update (about 810 pm EST)", and "update 3 (about 1035 pm EST)"):
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post708985

Note: My "thoughts" for point "2." and "3." haven't changed (except they used to be "1." and "2,", in the link below)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/16/#post750360
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 29, 2019
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
• Posts: 602
December 29th, 2019 at 2:54:19 PM permalink
Is this not like betting huge favourites in sports? I mean you win most of the time but a couple of losses wipes out your wins and more. Or is this much different than betting big favs in sports?
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
December 29th, 2019 at 4:37:07 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

Is this not like betting huge favourites in sports?

No, it seems that way at the moment, but there can be value### on draws with "dog odds" for the "no jackpot winner" too (see my early posts on page 1 or 2 for a good example of this).

###: often the estimated value is "far greater" than what I have currently been posting (well over 40% estimated EV, on some of the "big draws").

Quote: vegas

I mean you win most of the time but a couple of losses wipes out your wins and more. Or is this much different than betting big favs in sports?

This is different from betting on big favorites in sports, as we should have a long term edge*** doing this.

(update/edit at about 525 pm) ***: As long as the "actual tickets sales" convert to "less tickets" than what the "bookie's implied chances"are (inferred from the "bookie's odds") then there will be "+ value on the bet" (this is only true for betting on the "no jackpot winner").

On rare occasions we may have a bet and the "actual EV' may be negative.
"Actual Negative EV" hasn't happened to me on an individual bet yet, but it is possible, especially for "tiny odds" or "big jackpot draws".
"tiny odds": have a small estimated edge, less than 1% usually, so not much "buffer", if we are off with the ticket estimate.
"big jackpot draws": have none to minimal "historical data points" to use, so the ticket estimates can be off by greater amounts.

-----
Lastly, even though this thread is under "sports betting", it is not a true "sports bet" (I know you didn't ask about this, but thought I should clarify).

----
Update (535 pm):

Below is a link that may help clarify what I meant above (see " *** " above)

https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46

Then once you open the spreadsheet (either one should work):
>>>> go to the sheet that says "Other_formulas"
>>>> then type in the current "no jackpot winner" odds (decimal odds) in cell "B2" for "Mega Millions", or cell "E2" for "Powerball"
>>>> the figure next to the cell "Break even point" is the "break-even" figure in "number of tickets" (the "actual tickets sold" have to consistently be less than this figure to have a "long-term edge", on the "no jackpot winner" prop).

Important: Only use the "no jackpot winner" odds on offer in cell "B2" or "E2", as there will be a big error in the "break even point" figure, if you use the "(yes) jackpot winner" odds.

Other: the spreadsheet(s) were originally "done quickly for personal use". If you download it, you may want to change the names for some of the cells to "improve" it.

Other 2: I think I have said this before, but none of the formulas in the spreadsheet are my own, so all credit should go to the people that provided them, in earlier posts in this thread.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 29, 2019
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
December 30th, 2019 at 11:26:23 PM permalink
Odds update(s):

Mega Millions - No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19 is currently -2000 (opened -2500 and then went to -2150)
Powerball - No Jackpot Winner 01/01/2020 is currently -900 (has been -900 all the way through betting, so far)

Note: The odds could have been better or worse than what I mentioned above, as I am not looking at them 24/7, and once I have my bet on, I probably only look about once per day.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 30, 2019
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
December 31st, 2019 at 11:59:35 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Odds update(s):

Mega Millions - No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19 is currently -2000 (opened -2500 and then went to -2150)
Powerball - No Jackpot Winner 01/01/2020 is currently -900 (has been -900 all the way through betting, so far)

Note: The odds could have been better or worse than what I mentioned above, as I am not looking at them 24/7, and once I have my bet on, I probably only look about once per day.

MM - No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19 is currently -1800, (see new betting summaries below)
PB - No Jackpot Winner 01/01/2020 is currently -800, (see new betting summaries below)

----

Betting Summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19"
Odds: -1800
Estimated Chance: 96.33...% (based on an estimate of 11.3^^^ million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +1.68...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 10.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Already had my bet @ -2150 (should have used "wait and see" a bit longer)

^^^: My range is 9.8 to 11.3 million tickets.

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/01/20"
Odds: -800
Estimated Chance: 93.64...% (based on an estimate of 19.2*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +5.34...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 14.3% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Already had my bet @ -900 (I generally plan to bet early when "these sorts of odds are put up").

***: My "late" range is 17 to 19.2 million tickets.

----
Other:

Remember my results are "simulated" to make the"P/(L)" figures "fair and simple", I am planning to have a small "real money" bet at the better odds, about an extra 2.2% of bank-roll for the MM, and about an extra 1.5% of "bank roll" for PB (so if you had your bet early like me, then you can probably do a similar thing, if you want)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 31, 2019
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
January 1st, 2020 at 12:54:08 PM permalink
Happy New Year, everyone

Powerball - No Jackpot Winner 01/01/2020 is currently -900 (has been -900 , -800, and now back to -900)
Mega Millions - No Jackpot Winner 01/03/2020 is currently -2000

Note: I would probably put up 9.5 to 11 million as a range for the next MM (since I am using a "wait and see" approach, I will post a proper betting summary closer to the draw date)

----
For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/31/19, I put 1,548 down to win 72.

Opening Bal: 26,295
Finishing Bal: 26,367
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 367
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.16...%
Odds Taken: -2150
Actual EV: 0.63...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,839,862
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm