No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet

My Bet(s):

i)
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 07/11/2020"
Odds: -2150
Estimated Chance ***: 96.140...%
Estimated EV: 0.61...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": ~5.3% (about 2/5 Kelly)
Actual Bet Amount: $1,247
When did/will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 11.5 million tickets will be sold.

ii)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "76 Powerball number last digit is not 0"
Odds: -960
Chance: 24/26 (92.30...%)
EV: 1.92...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": ~9.2% ( "1/2 Kelly"^^^)
Actual Bet Amount: $1,920^^^
When did/will I have a bet: now

^^^ : This time my actual bet is closer to "20/43 Kelly" (as long as you bet less or equal to "full Kelly", then you have NOT "over bet your bank roll").

Note: My "ideal 1/2 Kelly" bet would have been closer to $2,064 at the above odds, but I am limited to "win $200" for this bet type (reminder: I can bet more if I wanted to after the line has "reset", or up to about 20 minutes has past since I had the above bet).


Edit /Update (about 435 pm):

Anything with a "strike-through" has changed, as I had another bet of $144, to bring the total to $2,064 for that bet.

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Reminder/Other:

You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note 1: Only use the spreadsheets for the "no jackpot winner" markets
Note 2: They are the spreadsheets with "...lotto..." in the name
Note 3: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.

Odds:

i)
Powerball "No Jackpot Winner 7/11/2020":

5dimes went: -2150 >>> -2500
Betonline is currently : -2800

Note: I didn't look to see what betonline's odds were earlier.

ii)
Powerball "76 Powerball number last digit is not 0" - 7/11/2020

5dimes went: -960 >>> -1580

Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 07/11/20) :

Opening Bal: 23,605
Finishing Bal: 23,878
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,122)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,486)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : 1,247 / 1,243.32
Won ($): 58
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 96.10...% / 96.14...%
Odds Taken: -2150
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 0.57...% / 0.61...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 11,597,331 / 11,500,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm


Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 364

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet ($): 2,064
Won ($): 215
Chance that the "Powerball number last digit is not 0": 24/26 (92.30...%)
Odds Taken: -960
Actual EV: 1.92...%

Amount won/(lost) on the 07/11/20: 273

As always, love the updates! Thanks for the thread.

I hope I haven't missed it, but is there any kind of summary of how much you've wagered, won/lost, EV, SD's, etc? I'd be quite curious what the EV +/- SD and N0 for these big bets are. Would imagine you'd need a large number of bets to reach N0.

Quote: Romes

As always, love the updates! Thanks for the thread.

I hope I haven't missed it, but is there any kind of summary of how much you've wagered, won/lost, EV, SD's, etc? I'd be quite curious what the EV +/- SD and N0 for these big bets are. Would imagine you'd need a large number of bets to reach N0.

Sorry, I haven't been keeping track of many of those details (except the Win/loss)
Also, what does N0 mean in the context of your post ?

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Betting summary/recommendation(s):

Note: I can't bet with betonline, so only the Mega Millions bet below will count towards my results.

Summary:
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 07/17/2020"
Odds: -2300
Estimated Chance ***: 96.3343...%
Estimated EV: 0.523...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": ~4.81% (about 2/5 Kelly)
Actual Bet Amount: $1,150
When did/will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 11.3 million tickets will be sold.


Recommendation:
Game: Powerball
Book: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/lottery
Prop: "July 18: Will Powerball Jackpot be won" - "No"
Odds: -2000
Estimated Chance ###: 95.9108...%
Estimated EV: 0.706...%
Recommended bet (if you want to bet similar / the same as me): ~5.65% (about 2/5 Kelly)
"Full Kelly": 14.13%

###: I estimate 12.2 million tickets will be sold.

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 07/17/20) :

Opening Bal: 23,878
Finishing Bal: 23,928
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,072)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 364
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,436)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : 1,150 / 1,148.29
Won ($): 50
Chance of no jackpot winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 96.1928...% / 96.3343...%
Odds Taken: -2300
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 0.375...% / 0..523...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 11,744,561 / 11300000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

For the draw on the 07/18/20 , my estimated tickets sold for the Powerball was 12.2 million and the actual tickets sold was 12,226,879, according to the "lotto report" website above.

Betting summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 7/29/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ***: 95.8779...%
Estimated EV: 0.924...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": ~7.02% / $1,680.59 (about 2/5 Kelly)
Actual Bet Amount: $1,691
When did/will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 12.3 million tickets will be sold.

Odds Update - "No Jackpot Winner" Powerball 7/29/20

5dimes went: -1900 >> -2150 (Estimated EV: +0.337...%)
Betonline is currently: -2000 (Estimated EV: +0.671...%)

Both books are showing a +EV, but I would not bet the -2150 that is currently available at 5d (main reason(s): "not enough edge/buffer").

Quote: ksdjdj

...Also, what does N0 mean in the context of your post ?

N0 would be the mathematical number of bets you'd need to place with an "average" odds taken to mathematically be GUARANTEED to be ahead. Like in blackjack, if you have a "decent" game/overall edge, you need about 50,000 hands until you are mathematically guaranteed not to be down (aka in the black to some extent). With the MASSIVE variance and minimal number of bets with the lottery, I'd imagine it would take you a pretty long to get to a mathematically proven edge =/.

Quote: Romes

N0 would be the mathematical number of bets you'd need to place with an "average" odds taken to mathematically be GUARANTEED to be ahead. Like in blackjack, if you have a "decent" game/overall edge, you need about 50,000 hands until you are mathematically guaranteed not to be down (aka in the black to some extent). With the MASSIVE variance and minimal number of bets with the lottery, I'd imagine it would take you a pretty long to get to a mathematically proven edge =/.

Romes... you KNOW there is no number of bets in your scenario to be GUARANTEED to be ahead! You would need to define your definition of 'guaranteed', like 99% chance... 99.9% chance, etc.... Or of course you could also use Standard Deviations to define your 'guaranteed'.

To Romes (and anyone else who is interested)

Here is my first attempt to go back through my "results pages", and provide you with the figures I think you were interested in:

Bets (total): 18
"Actual EV's" (per bet average): ~5.6% (~101.4% / 18)
"chance of no jackpot winner" (per bet average): ~93.98% (~1,691.6%/18)
Turnover / "Amount Wagered" (per bet average): ~$3,447 ($62,047/18)
Profit / (Loss) for the bets above: $4,430

Notes:

1. I excluded^^^ the bets on the first page of this thread (as they were "rare occurrences", and had extremely high estimated/actual EV's, when compared to most of my other "lotto bets")

^^^: if you Include all the bets up to "the first post on page 17", then the actual Profit / (Loss) is : ($620)

2. The figures above are based on the posts between >>>https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post721852 <<< and >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/17/#post750733

3. I didn't double check the above figures, so there could be "calc errors" (eg "pressing the same number twice on the calculator")

4. At the moment, I plan to go from page 2 of this thread, until i reach "my last bet" that was "still using the 1/3 Kelly strategy".

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I was going to go to sleep just before I wrote this, so I hope it makes sense...

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Update:

According to http://www.beatingbonuses.com/, the standard deviation would be ~0.27 (at least if my real EV and bet size, was always the same amount as my average EV and bet size)

Update:

To Romes (and other interested parties)

Here are the details you wanted for my "no jackpot winner" bets (I have only done it for the bets between link and link )

Bets (total): 85
"Actual EV's - per bet average": ~3.27% (~278.3% / 85)
"chance of no jackpot winner - per bet average": ~95.06% (~8,080.8%/85)
'Turnover / Amount Wagered - per bet average": ~$2,909.20 (~$247,282/85)
Profit / (Loss) for the bets above: $4,931
Ev in $: ~ 8,096 (update about 740 pm)


Note: These figures are just for the "no jackpot winner lotto bets" for the period between the links above [my profit/ (loss) figure is currently around ($2000) for all my bets in this thread]

Note 2: I will plug in this data using http://www.beatingbonuses.com/ to work out the SD and other related info soon (but if anyone wants to do it the " more correct way", feel free to work it out and post a reply)

Note 3: I didn't double check the addition, so there could be some errors in these figures

Note 4 (update about 7pm Pac time): I didn't keep track of my largest EV for a single bet, but I think my smallest EV was ~ 0.5% ( i don't know if this helps, as working out the SD and other related things is above my current "skill level")

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Update (about 7pm, Pac time):

After using the website from note 2 above", I get these details:

Using the websites' simulator, it returned this info below:

"No of Simulations": 1000000
Average return: 8090.60
Minimum Return: -35541...
Maximum Return: +21344...
Chance of gain: 87.384%
Standard Deviation (Per bet): 0.24

Using the websites' calculator, it returned this info below:

Expected Return: 8096.30
Chance of gain: 89.6%
1 Standard Deviation: 1659.14 to 14533.46
2 Standard Deviations: -4778.02 to 20970.62

Important: the calculator and simulator worked out these details using an "unlimited bankroll".

Edit (1010 pm ): I put a strike-through the info above, because I don't think it is correct after going through the figures at the start of this post, as my "max win" if all of my bets had won during that period was, ~$21,400.

Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 07/29/20) :

Opening Bal: 23,928
Finishing Bal: 24,017
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (1,983)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 364
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,347)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : 1,691 / 1,680.59
Won ($): 89
Chance of no jackpot winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 95.6054...% / 95.8779...%
Odds Taken: -1900
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 0.637...% / 0.924...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 13,131,869 / 12,300,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Reminder:

You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note 1: Only use the spreadsheets for the "no jackpot winner" markets
Note 2: They are the spreadsheets with "...lotto..." in the name
Note 3: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.

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Other:

Sorry for the late results summary post (see reasons below)

1. The lotto report website usually put up the "# of Tickets Sold" within 6 hours of the draw, but they took at least 24 hours this time

2. Once I had all the details, I couldn't get to WoV until now, because my pc was being redirected to a "shady site" ( I re-installed chrome and firefox, and I used all my anti-virus and anti-malware scanners and they found nothing)

Note: This happened to me about 2.5 weeks ago (see >> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/help/34888-i-couldnt-login-to-wizard-of-vegas-7-14/#post774656)

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Update (~250 pm) :

I may be off-line for a while, because as I am typing this, I tried to get to WoV through firefox, and it is being redirected again to a "shady site".

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spelling etc not checked

Betting Summary - Other Bet(s) (Powerball Jackpot Propositions - 8/22/2020)

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "67 Powerball number last digit is 6"
Odds: +790
Chance: 3/26 (11.53...%)
EV: 2.69...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": 0.17% ( "1/2 Kelly")
Actual Bet Amount: $41
When will I have a bet: now

Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 8/22/20) :

Opening Bal: 24,017
Finishing Bal: 23,976
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,024)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,347)

Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 323

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Bet ($): 41
Chance that the "Powerball number last digit is 6": 3/26 (11.538...%)
Odds Taken:+790
Actual EV: 2.69...%

Happy (belated) New Year and I hope everyone is well.

Just a bit of "FYI":

1. I haven't been posting on this thread or betting with 5dimes since around the end of August because:
i. Every time I looked at their website, I couldn't find any lotto bets on offer.
ii. About a month or so ago, I noticed that they were offering odds on the lottery again but the estimated EV was lower than what I was prepared to accept to make a wager.
and most importantly (IMO)
iii. 5dimes was being being investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice around that time, so I wanted to use a "wait and see" approach with my betting (at least until after the "...settlement with Feds" ), see link here >>> link

2. After looking at the odds on offer for the last draw for both the MM and PB, there is a chance that the "yes, there will be a jackpot winner" is the side that will have +EV from now on in their current jackpot rolls (but the last two draws could have just been an aberration***).

***: In the last 6+ years I have been looking at these markets I have never seen the "yes side" have an estimated or real +EV (until these two draws) .

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Spelling not checked

Betting summary:

Game: Mega Millions (MM)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/08/2021"
Odds: +475
Estimated Chance ***: 17.637...%
Estimated EV: 1.412...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": 0.118...% / $28.52... (about 2/5 Kelly)
Actual Bet Amount: $28
When did/will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate ~ 58.7 million tickets will be sold.

Note: One of the ways I used to get the above estimate was >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<< and I used 490^^^ million as the jackpot amount.
^^^: The current advertised jackpot is $520 million, but I wanted to be "cautious with my estimate" so I used the earlier advertised jackpot of $490 million (FYI: I would have used the $520 million jackpot in the above link, if I was betting on the "no jackpot winner" side).

Note 2: I wouldn't recommend betting in this draw (even though I did) because the estimated EV is so small that the actual tickets sold just have to be about 1.1 million (~1.9%) less than my estimate to turn this bet into a - EV one.

Note 3: These are the 1st jackpot rolls I have seen for the MM and Powerball that have the potential for a +EV on the "yes there will be a Jackpot winner" side of the betting market.

Result summary (after the Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/08/2021) :

Opening Bal: 23,976
Finishing Bal: 23,948
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,052)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 323
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,375)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : $28 / $28.52

Chance of YES the jackpot will hit (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 17.562...% / 17.634...%
Odds Taken: +475
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 0.985...% / 1.412...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 58,436,919 / 58,700,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Betting summary:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/12/2021"
Odds: +360
Estimated Chance ***: 25.482...%
Estimated EV: 17.221...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for" (about 2/5 Kelly): 1.913...% / $458.24...
Actual Bet Amount: $450
When did/will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate ~ 89 million tickets will be sold.

Note: I probably would have used an estimate closer to 119 million tickets, if I was betting on the "no jackpot winner" side of the market.

I have just posted a new file, as part of my "lotto spreadsheets" (see link below)

You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note: "American_ver4_lotto_bet_calc.xls" is the latest spreadsheet that I have posted

Note 2: You can now use it to help work out your "no jackpot winner" and "jackpot winner" estimates and bets (with previous versions, you could only use it to work out your "no jackpot winner" estimates and bets).

Important info:
. With 5dimes, US and now also Australian players are listed as ",,, not allowed to register or play...", so even though I somehow managed to get my bet on, I am doubtful I will get paid if I win, but I will keep you posted either way.

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Other info:
Odds are currently: +310 for the "(yes) Mega Million jackpot winner" (previously it was +360)

Because the Advertised Jackpot went from $615 million to $625 million, my updated estimated tickets, chance and EV's are now below:
Estimated Tickets: 96 million when betting on the "yes side"
Estimated Chance : 27.187...%
Estimated EV: 25.060...% (at the odds that I took, +360)

Note 1: "Unbiased" Estimate = ~101 million tickets

Note 2: "No Winner" Estimate = ~123 million tickets (estimate that I would use, if the "no winner" side had an estimated +EV)

Note 3: The estimated EV for the "yes side" is ~11.466...% (at the current odds of +310)

Note 4: You could validly argue that my overall EV for the bet is about -100% to -98.75% (since I am guessing that I have between a 0% and 1% chance of getting paid)

Result summary (after the Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/08/2021) :

Opening Bal: 23,948
Finishing Bal: 23,498
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,502)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 323
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,825)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : $450 / $458.24...

Chance jackpot will be hit (based on actual tickets sold) / Early Estimated Chance (Late Estimate): 24.705...% / 25.482...% (27.187...%)
Odds Taken: +360
Actual EV / Estimated EV (at the time I had the bet I used the "Early Estimated Chance" figure above): 13.645...% / 17.221...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 85,860,269 / 89,000,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other info:

. The odds for the "Jackpot winner" went: +360 to +310 and finished on +260.
. If you got odds of +360 and/or +310, then you would have had a +EV bet.
. No one reading this thread should have had a bet on the +260 , because the estimated EV at those odds was about -2.1266% at best, if you used my biggest estimated chance figure that I suggested for the "yes side".

Lastly, I still have one possible way to get this bet on (trusted people in accepted countries) so I may keep posting to this thread, if and when I have more lotto bets.

I have (finally) managed to find someone to get the bets on for me, but I didn't have a bet on the Mega Millions because my "ticket range^^^ was too big ".

^^^: I estimated that between 134 million and 230 million tickets would be sold (middle/average = 182 million)

The actual tickets sold*** was: 183,642,272
The odds offered for the "Jackpot will be hit" side was: +150 (this would have been about +13.74% EV bet, based on the actual tickets sold)

***: https://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Correction for link here >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/48/#post791972 <<<

Up the top it says: "Result summary (after the Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/08/2021) "
but it should say: "Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 01/12/2021) "

there is a similar error on >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/47/#post791872 <<<

Up the top, it should say: "Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 01/08/2021) "