2018 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)
Quote: gordonm888Mission:
I think that VegasSports' suggestion that we use CBSSports or another similar online system is excellent. I agree with him - this WOV-based system for running the Picks game is clunky and unreliable and medieval.
I understand that VegasSports and I are not going to win this argument, but there is no reason to belittle him.
Let's just get on with this contest. And,you want trash talk? You got trash talk.
If you want to be "Medieval Mission" who uses out-dated unreliable, labor-intensive methods to run a contest, then do it. Stay in denial about the fact that this is 2018 and that you are "so ten-years ago." Suck the fun out of the contest with endless rules about how we are disqualified if we don't perfectly format our picks message in order to make it easy on Ed Collins and yourself. After all, this contest should be more about penmanship than about sports picking, right?
If you think that VegasSports is wrong, then show us how intelligent you are by out-picking him. Or by out-picking me. Show us that we are nothing but moons that orbit around Planet Mission in the Mission-centric NFL Picks Contest. Show us that you're better at picking the NFL games than you are at evaluating technologies for how to run a contest. Show us you're more than Mission the Medieval Monk who hand-scribes the results of the contest onto parchment.
And please, please, OH GOD, please. Spare us one of your long, windy defensive posts.
Instead, just bet me $50 as to whether I finish above you in the final standings. (Um, NO, wait a minute, maybe not. Exactly who does Mission send his picks to?)
Edit: Oh Shit. While I was writing this satirical "trash talk" and trying to get Mission to wager with me, he posted that he is not playing the contest. My apologies to him. This message was mostly just meant to be fun.
Gordon...
Get yourself a designated hitter. You're really bad at trash talk. :)
I've talked Mission into playing and defending his stake. So y'all can blame me when he wins this thing.
Speaking of which, and it was mentioned before in this thread, Mission has for the last 4 years, sent his picks to me before he opens the picks.
I retain them unopened to preserve the time stamp, which could then be compared to when he opened anyone else's picks, just in case there was a dispute, which there never has been. I expect he'll continue to send them to me. I have 68 of them sitting here still, clogging my inbox.
Quote: Mission146There's no fair way for me to do so.
We have three different players who have submitted default strategies and essentially said that they are using them throughout, two of the three strategies are such that I'll kind of know what their Picks are before look for them.
Essentially, if it were to come down to me and one of them for any of the prizes, I could easily fade/mirror them as needed, even if I technically hadn't, "Looked," at their Picks yet.
Besides that, I've always played just to defend my contributions, but have never been capable of winning outright. With the addition of second and third place prizes, the mechanics of who gets what are just too sloppy if I place.
That seems like a very -EV situation for you. You must REALLY like this board.... You aren't even holding the money and earning some interest on the float. I feel bad and apologize.
Quote: gordonm888Mission:
I think that VegasSports' suggestion that we use CBSSports or another similar online system is excellent. I agree with him - this WOV-based system for running the Picks game is clunky and unreliable and medieval.
That's all quite fine. I beseech you, I implore you, if that is the superior method, to run a Picks game on CBS Sportsline next year for WoV Members. Not only will I not speak out against your CBS Sportsline game, I will openly encourage everyone to play that game instead of mine.
Quote:I understand that VegasSports and I are not going to win this argument, but there is no reason to belittle him.
I didn't mean to. I was hoping my joke in the post before that one would get my point across.
Quote:Let's just get on with this contest. And,you want trash talk? You got trash talk.
If you want to be "Medieval Mission" who uses out-dated unreliable, labor-intensive methods to run a contest, then do it. Stay in denial about the fact that this is 2018 and that you are "so ten-years ago." Suck the fun out of the contest with endless rules about how we are disqualified if we don't perfectly format our picks message in order to make it easy on Ed Collins and yourself. After all, this contest should be more about penmanship than about sports picking, right?
EdCollins' program can actually handle Picks not strictly formatted to my specifications. The reason that I am strict on the formatting is because I like how uniform it appears in the posts. For example, if you wanted to pick ATS, as far as EdCollins' program is concerned, you ONLY need the team name, I believe. I just get tired of reformatting everything to make it look nice.
Quote:If you think that VegasSports is wrong, then show us how intelligent you are by out-picking him. Or by out-picking me. Show us that we are nothing but moons that orbit around Planet Mission in the Mission-centric NFL Picks Contest. Show us that you're better at picking the NFL games than you are at evaluating technologies for how to run a contest. Show us you're more than Mission the Medieval Monk who hand-scribes the results of the contest onto parchment.
I suck at picking. I'm barely above .500 lifetime in this contest and it is a mathematical likelihood that at least one of you will outpick me. You will also notice that you out picked me last season AND that your performance last season is superior to my lifetime performance. I don't know anything about how well VegasRider does or does not pick.
Quote:And please, please, OH GOD, please. Spare us one of your long, windy defensive posts.
Nope.
Quote:Instead, just bet me $50 as to whether I finish above you in the final standings. (Um, NO, wait a minute, maybe not. Exactly who does Mission send his picks to?)
No bet. I would probably lose. Are you laying odds?
Quote:Edit: Oh Shit. While I was writing this satirical "trash talk" and trying to get Mission to wager with me, he posted that he is not playing the contest. My apologies to him. This message was mostly just meant to be fun.
It's okay. I've been convinced to participate.
Quote: prozemaThat seems like a very -EV situation for you. You must REALLY like this board.... You aren't even holding the money and earning some interest on the float. I feel bad and apologize.
I've been convinced to play, which is even more -EV. Not only am I almost certainly not going to win, but even if I did, I would refuse any money aside from my entry fee back and paying out the Consolation Prizes anyway.
Quote: beachbumbabs
Speaking of which, and it was mentioned before in this thread, Mission has for the last 4 years, sent his picks to me before he opens the picks.
I retain them unopened to preserve the time stamp, which could then be compared to when he opened anyone else's picks, just in case there was a dispute, which there never has been. I expect he'll continue to send them to me. I have 68 of them sitting here still, clogging my inbox.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I opened VegasRider's already to check his formatting.
As far as anything else, feel free to delete the old ones! There's also never been a dispute because I have never won a prize. LOL
Greetings.
This is how it is going to work with me playing:
1.) If I win either of the Consolation Prizes, then obviously, the one I win will not be paid out.
2.) If I come in First Place:
A.) I will receive my $25 back and both Consolation Prizes shall be paid out of First Place funds.
B.) The remaining First Place funds will be distributed as follows:
B1.) There will be a Fourth Place prize of $25 added.
B2.) The Third Place prize will be increased from $25 to $100.
B3.) Second Place will receive whatever is left.
Currently, there appears to be $825 in the pool, so if I won the other prizes would be as follows:
Second Place: $525
Third Place: $100
Fourth Place: $25
Most Average: $75
You Suck: $75
Mission146: $25
3.) If I come in Second Place, then Third Place still gets $25 and $50 from that will go to each Consolation Prize with me paying out the balance on each of those.
Quote: Mission146I've been convinced to play, which is even more -EV. Not only am I almost certainly not going to win, but even if I did, I would refuse any money aside from my entry fee back and paying out the Consolation Prizes anyway.
Awesome, I think. :-)
You should accept more than your entry fee back imho.
I am glad that Mission is playing. I think he should not even have to post a entry fee, because he is putting up $150 for the bonus prizes.
I am sorry that the "Medieval Monk" turned down my offer of a wager. And, No, I cannot offer odds. I have no reason to believe that I am particularly good at this.
Quote: gordonm888I have never for a moment thought that Mission was doing anything dishonorable in his handling of picks to enhance his chances of winning. That makes no sense. It never even occurred to me.
I've never won and the opportunity to do so has never come up.
My point is, there's one person who I basically know what his Picks are ABSOLUTELY before he even officially makes them, and he has said he is using his default strategy every single week.
If he and I are the only ones in contention for First Place or for the You Suck prize, and I have a one game advantage, all I have to do is mirror him and I am guaranteed to win the prize. That's my point. There's no way to pretend that I don't know what his Picks are. Knowing what they are, I am too competitive to not use that information. That's why I don't open Picks before making my own.
Anyway, I have come up with a solution that will appease everyone and have me playing. I have my own default strategy. I am making no attempt whatsoever to win this year, and as such, do NOT want this season to count towards my lifetime standings. My final OFFICIAL RECORD is 258-226, .5331. Since I may not deviate from my own default strategy, there is no way for me to use any information to my advantage.
Quote:I am glad that Mission is playing. I think he should not even have to post a entry fee, because he is putting up $150 for the bonus prizes.
That makes one of us who is glad that I am playing. I'm not worried about posting up the entry fee. I'm not playing if I don't have to post it because I'm not going to take from the First Place (or any other) prize to pay the Consolation Prizes if I don't contribute an Entry Fee to it.
Quote:I am sorry that the "Medieval Monk" turned down my offer of a wager. And, No, I cannot offer odds. I have no reason to believe that I am particularly good at this.
It's all good!
Quote: prozemaAwesome, I think. :-)
You should accept more than your entry fee back imho.
I agree. I think you are setting this up too hard for you. I mean even if you didnt suck at this, which apparently your past results say you do, this is completely negative EV for the rules you state for yourself.
I can forgive you your ignorance. :-)Quote: Mission146I wasn’t referring to your default strategy, Unjon.
| Member | Escrow | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ayecarumba | $25 | |
| BeachBumBabs | $25 | |
| Bruce1 | $25 | |
| djatc | $25 | |
| EdCollins | $25 | |
| fleastiff | $25 | |
| FourFiveFace | $25 | |
| GenWyzgy | $25 | |
| Gordonm888 | $25 | |
| GWAE | $25 | |
| IndyJeffrey | $25 | |
| Joeman | $25 | |
| JohnnyQ | $25 | |
| JohnZimbo | $25 | |
| JW17 | $25 | |
| kuma | $25 | |
| MaxPen | $25 | |
| MidwestAP | $25 | |
| Miplet | $25 | |
| Mission146 | $25 | |
| OdiousGambit | $25 | |
| OneNickelMiracle | $25 | |
| PlayYourCardsRight | $25 | |
| Prozema | $25 | |
| Rainman | $25 | |
| Rigondeaux | $25 | |
| RisingDough | $25 | |
| Romes | $25 | |
| SOOPOO | $25 | |
| Sparty10k | $25 | |
| Terapined | $25 | |
| TroopScott | $25 | extra $25 escrow in reserve |
| unJon | $25 | |
| VCUSkyhawk | $25 | |
| Vegasrider | $25 | |
| Wizard | $25 | |
| Total 36 | Total $900 |
This is current to today.
Venmo account is now verified, and can be used.
PayPal is preferred.
Amazon gift cards also good.
Thanks, guys!
We are accepting new players until September 8 (late entry 15th).
I have received 3-4 requests for sending info but not yet received the escrow. Please check the list, and if you've sent a payment but it's NOT shown above, please PM me.
Edit: 2 more escrows received 8/22. Table updated.
3 more escrows received 8/27. Accepting more players!
2 more escrows received 8/28. Added 1 player.
2 more players added 8/30. 4 escrows received.
1 more player added 8/31. 1 escrow received.
1 more player added 9/2. 1 escrow received.
2 players withdrew 9/4. Bawk-bawk-bakaw. 1 pmt pending. 1 escrow received.
2 escrows received 9/5.
2 new players 9/6. 2 escrows received.
3 escrows received 9/7.
2 new players 9/8. 5 escrows received.
LAST CALL FOR THE FULL GAME. WINDOW CLOSES AT MIDNIGHT. LATE ENTRIES/ESCROW WILL HAVE A WEEK 1 BYE, BUT GAME STILL AVAILABLE.
Update:Everyone above is paid for the full game at this time. Congrats guys! I'm very impressed.
We are still accepting late entries, until Sept 15. New entries will have used their bye week but are otherwise eligible for all prizes.
| Member | Escrow | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ayecarumba | $25 | |
| BeachBumBabs | $25 | |
| Bruce1 | $25 | |
| djatc | $25 | |
| EdCollins | $25 | |
| fleastiff | $25 | |
| FourFiveFace | $25 | |
| GenWyzgy | $25 | |
| Gordonm888 | $25 | |
| GWAE | $25 | |
| IndyJeffrey | $25 | |
| Joeman | $25 | |
| JohnnyQ | $25 | |
| JohnZimbo | $25 | |
| JW17 | $25 | |
| kuma | $25 | |
| MaxPen | $25 | |
| MidwestAP | $25 | |
| Miplet | $25 | |
| Mission146 | $25 | |
| OdiousGambit | $25 | |
| OneNickelMiracle | $25 | |
| PlayYourCardsRight | $25 | |
| Prozema | $25 | |
| Rainman | $25 | |
| Rigondeaux | $25 | |
| RisingDough | $25 | |
| Romes | $25 | |
| SOOPOO | $25 | |
| Sparty10k | $25 | |
| Terapined | $25 | |
| TroopScott | $25 | extra $25 escrow in reserve |
| unJon | $25 | |
| VCUSkyhawk | $25 | |
| Vegasrider | $25 | |
| Wizard | $25 | |
| Total 36 | Total $900 |
This is current to today.
Venmo account is now verified, and can be used.
PayPal is preferred.
Amazon gift cards also good.
Thanks, guys!
We are accepting new players until September 8 (late entry 15th).
Update:Everyone above is paid for the full game at this time. Last money received cleared 9/8. Congrats guys! I'm very impressed.
We are still accepting late entries, until Sept 15. New entries will have used their bye week but are otherwise eligible for all prizes.
Quote: GWAEI sent bbb money last night around 10pm.
Did you get that extra penny in interest by waiting? :)
Quote: JohnzimboDid you get that extra penny in interest by waiting? :)
Yeah but I lost 1.30 in fees because I had to use my debit card instead of bank account
The Week 1 Picks have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31481-official-wov-nfl-picks-game-2018-thread/#post672649
Steelers -4 bet 8 times for 9 units
Browns +4 bet 4 times for 4 units
Browns/Steelers UNDER Bet 15 times for 22 units (7 confidence picks!)
Browns/Steelers OVER Bet 2 times for 2 units (Fleastiff & Maxpen)
With confidence bets, that is 37 units riding on the game.
Obviously, the violent weather that is forecast for Cleveland (Winds > 20 mph with gusts to 40) seems to have influenced the picking.
9 units on the Cardinals -1
Just 1 unit on the Redskins +1 (from Fleastiff)
I'll be cheering for the Colts and Redskins, since I didn't pick in those games.
YEP !Quote: gordonm888Browns/Steelers UNDER Bet 15 times for 22 units (7 confidence picks!)
Browns/Steelers OVER Bet 2 times for 2 units
But not Wizard of Picks:
Wizard:
49ers (+6.5)
Bengals (+3) -- confidence
Giants (+3)
Cowboys (+3)
Bears (+7.5)
The weather, yeah, that's the ticket. I bet on the weather, yes, that is correct. ;)Quote: gordonm888Steelers-Browns in Cleveland was very heavily bet in Week 1.
Steelers -4 bet 8 times for 9 units
Browns +4 bet 4 times for 4 units
Browns/Steelers UNDER Bet 15 times for 22 units (7 confidence picks!)
Browns/Steelers OVER Bet 2 times for 2 units (Fleastiff & Maxpen)
With confidence bets, that is 37 units riding on the game.
Obviously, the violent weather that is forecast for Cleveland (Winds > 20 mph with gusts to 40) seems to have influenced the picking.
Quote: gordonm888Steelers-Browns in Cleveland was very heavily bet in Week 1.
Steelers -4 bet 8 times for 9 units
Browns +4 bet 4 times for 4 units
Browns/Steelers UNDER Bet 15 times for 22 units (7 confidence picks!)
Browns/Steelers OVER Bet 2 times for 2 units (Fleastiff & Maxpen)
With confidence bets, that is 37 units riding on the game.
Obviously, the violent weather that is forecast for Cleveland (Winds > 20 mph with gusts to 40) seems to have influenced the picking.
Maybe it’s confirmation of the “Mission146 Article” curse?
Aarrgh, 21+21 = 42 with 1 and 1/2 minutes to go. So much for the confidence pick.Quote: Mission146
JohnnyQ:
Steelers U 44.5 - CONFIDENCE
Jaguars U 43.5
Buccaneers (+9.5)
Texans U 51
Bears (+7.5)
Recall there is only one ten minute period in OT, so you're not dead yet.Quote: JohnnyQAarrgh, 21+21 = 42 with 1 and 1/2 minutes to go. So much for the confidence pick.
It took six turnovers, over 100 PIT penalty yards and a terrible no call (because footballs can apparently defy the laws of physics) but they covered.
I had both the Browns game UNDER 44.5 for my confidence pick AND Browns +4 -and once the Browns tied it 21-21 I couldn't figure anyway I could win both picks (unless the Browns tackled Steelers for a safety.) I overlooked what actually happened - Browns and Steelers went the entire OT period, missed 2 FGs and didn't score. I win both picks! I have never been so excited about a TIE. Amazing.
Same. Personal preference would be a Browns win regardless.Quote: gordonm888OMG
I had both the Browns game UNDER 44.5 for my confidence pick AND Browns +4 -and once the Browns tied it 21-21 I couldn't figure anyway I could win both picks (unless the Browns tackled Steelers for a safety.) I overlooked what actually happened - Browns and Steelers went the entire OT period, missed 2 FGs and didn't score. I win both picks! I have never been so excited about a TIE. Amazing.
Congrats to:
Mission146:Steelers -4
Browns UNDER 44.5
Midwest AP:
Steelers UNDER 44.5
GenWyzgy:
Steelers UNDER 44.5
onenickelmiracle:
Browns +4
Browns U 44.5-confidence
Bruce1:
Steelers UNDER 44.5
Prozema:
Steelers UNDER 44.5
UnJon:
Steelers UNDER 44.5
JohnnyQ:
Steelers U 44.5 - CONFIDENCE
Gordonm888:
Browns UNDER 44.5-Confidence
Browns +4
GWAE:
Browns (+4)
Browns U 44.5
RisingDough:
Steelers UNDER 44.5 Confidence
Miplet:
Browns UNDER 44.5
kuma:
Steelers UNDER 44.5 - Confidence
DJatc:
Browns UNDER 44.5- Confidence
Romes:
Browns UNDER 44.5
As a life long Steelers fan, I was really hoping to lose my under bet in OT. Such a sloppy game.Quote: GWAEYay I went 3-0 in the pit game. At least there is a silver lining after this game as a Pittsburgh resident
Quote: unJonAs a life long Steelers fan, I was really hoping to lose my under bet in OT. Such a sloppy game.
I was hoping for a safety.
I am also an idiot. I meant to put confidence on the Steelers under but just realized I typed it on the wrong line. I did colts -3 conf. Owell
Quote: prozemaWow. The cowboys blow.
Maybe, but the Bills swallow.
Quote: gordonm888Maybe, but the Bills swallow.
Well played sir.
Quote: beachbumbabsWhat a performance by Aaron Rodgers! Best comeback in several years. Great game to make my mediocre start sting a little less.
I just hope he’s not completely lost for the season, or permanently damaged because he came back to play on it.
It reminded me of Hulkamania. They were in shambles, but the crowd willed them to a dramatic victory.
A push is not a loss. It’s just ignored as if you never picked the game. So if you pushed one you would be 4 out of 5.Quote: VCUSkyhawkI am assuming a push is the same as a loss for our purposes. If so then I went 4 out of 6 (with my confidence pick winning).
Quote: unJonA push is not a loss. It’s just ignored as if you never picked the game. So if you pushed one you would be 4 out of 5.
But for the sake of win percentages wouldn't a person with 6/6 be ahead of 5/5? Like if the contested ended this week and that were the case are the two people tied or is the 6/6 the winner?
Quote: VCUSkyhawkBut for the sake of win percentages wouldn't a person with 6/6 be ahead of 5/5? Like if the contested ended this week and that were the case are the two people tied or is the 6/6 the winner?
tie
