2018 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)

Yup
Its that time of year
I thought I would start the thread a little early this year
since
Previous years, we got this going a little to close to opening game
Hopefully Mission is up to running this again
Thanks Mission

Terapined,

Sure thing! Thanks for starting the thread! I'll put the official thread together sometime this week. I'll probably be kicking in a little less for prize donations this year than I did last year, last year I was basically just trying to keep up with WoN's donations. I didn't like the idea of him donating more to the game than me when I'm the one who invented it...lol

Anyway, my donations will probably be:

Winner: $50
Most Average: $50
You Suck: $50

I think that I'm going to do the flat entry fee again, but we're going to go back to the honor system. I think it was a condition of WoN's donation that I collect the entry fees prior to the start of the contest, but I could be wrong about that. Either way, there's really no good reason I should need to hold everybody's money for seventeen weeks. It's honestly more of a PITA for me than anything else, because half of it is in the form of Amazon Gift Cards. I thought only a little of it would be. I really don't need that many Amazon Gift Cards...lol

I've never really understood why I should donate more to the winner, even though it's been my choice. The winner gets the prizes from everybody else anyway, so what does the winner need a big donation for?

Thanks Mission! I don’t think you need to pump the winner’s pot at all. The championship prize is big enough on its own.

Looking forward to it.

Hopefully, everyone will get the fact that they need to submit predictions for the SB teams and their scores with their first entry (unless that aspect has changed).

Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks Mission! I don’t think you need to pump the winner’s pot at all. The championship prize is big enough on its own.

Looking forward to it.

Hopefully, everyone will get the fact that they need to submit predictions for the SB teams and their scores with their first entry (unless that aspect has changed).

That's for the Playoff Picks Game, in which a tie is much more likely. If there were a tie in this game, the players would have the option of either splitting the pot or making their Super Bowl predictions at that time. THere's no reason to make Super Bowl predictions before the regular season even starts, neither of the two teams may even end up in the playoffs for both players.

I guess we'll see how many players we get and I'll reserve the right to move the $50 Winner Donation to, "You Suck," and, "Most Average." I'll probably move that if we end up with 25 players (or more) because that would be $600 to the winner.

Glad to hear this is going to run again. Looking forward to defending my title!!

Could someone point me to the rules? I’d be interested in playing.

I'm IN!!! ...and I have a sure fire strategy for 1st place this year =D. Anyone taking odds on who will win before the season starts (aka can I bet on the Wizard with like 2-1 odds???)?

Not for the pick'ems but something else... we used a site that collected the fees from everyone automatically... if there is a small surcharge for the service I think we should accommodate that and just use that. We should get all fee's collected prior to the season starting, that way if anyone flakes out it's on them, and not on all of us to absorb the blow.

Thinking like $10 per person? If we have that service with a fee, we could make it like $12 per person, where the extra $2 per person goes to covering the fee for setting everything up... I'd be 100% on board with that to streamline the process.

Quote: Romes

I'm IN!!! ...and I have a sure fire strategy for 1st place this year =D. Anyone taking odds on who will win before the season starts (aka can I bet on the Wizard with like 2-1 odds???)?

Not for the pick'ems but something else... we used a site that collected the fees from everyone automatically... if there is a small surcharge for the service I think we should accommodate that and just use that. We should get all fee's collected prior to the season starting, that way if anyone flakes out it's on them, and not on all of us to absorb the blow.

Thinking like $10 per person? If we have that service with a fee, we could make it like $12 per person, where the extra $2 per person goes to covering the fee for setting everything up... I'd be 100% on board with that to streamline the process.

Wiz wins every other year. I have all the years results compiled, will post them sometime soon.

As far as the money, I know I've used LeagueSafe in the past and it's worked very well. There's a small fee for this, but it's not extravagant. The entry expenses are collected ahead of time and the organizer doesn't have to worry about collection nor payout. On the other hand, I think with only a few exceptions, there hasn't been issues collecting individual payments in the past.

Edited to correct grammatical mistakes

Quote: MidwestAP

Wiz wins every other year. I have all the years results compiled, will post them sometime soon.

As far as the money, I know I've used LeagueSafe in the past and it's worked very well. Theress a small fee for this, but it's not extravagant. Then fees are collected ahead of time and the organizer doesn't have to worry about collection not payout. On the other hand, I think with only a few exceptions, there hasn't been issues collecting individual payments in the past.

Ah, yes, something like this! Whatever the fee is just plan to divide it among 15-20 people and make the entry fee that much extra. I.E. $11 to enter, $1 to fee, $10 to pool. I think that's very fair, especially given all the work mission does to update and run the game.

Let's help make his life easier by pitching in an extra buck... (or probably less?).

A little history of the game that Mission has generously administered each year.

- There are 4 players who have participated in all six seasons, Wizard, JohnZimbo, Miplet, and Mission146.

- There are an additional 8 players who have participated in five of the six seasons: SOOPOO, StrictlyAP(WizardofNothing), AyeCarumba, JW17, EdCollins, Beachbumbabs, terapined, and myself.

- The list of champions are:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 AyeCarumba (58.62%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)
2016 Wizard (63.41%)
2017 MidwestAP (61.18%)

- I've listed the aggregated results (by total win pct) for all participants with at least 240 picks (avg 80 results or more over at least three years) over those six seasons. I have the complete record if anyone is interested in knowing other results.

- The results include confidence picks as double, and exclude the forfeited 0-5 weeks.

- The aggregate record for all players (69 unique participants over six seasons) is 7020-6919 (50.36%)

Player	Win	Loss	Pct
Wizard	327	211	60.78%
MidwestAP	208	178	53.89%
Mission146	258	226	53.31%
beachbumbabs	230	205	52.87%
Paradigm	182	165	52.45%
Terapined	210	199	51.34%
EdCollins	224	213	51.26%
Miplet	276	263	51.21%
AyeCarumba	232	225	50.77%
Aluiso	178	176	50.28%
RDWPotus	140	139	50.18%
StrictlyAP (WizardofNothing)	231	230	50.11%
JohnZimbo	281	282	49.91%
genwyzgy	179	180	49.86%
10DollarBri	170	171	49.85%
Steeldco	188	190	49.74%
JML24	179	181	49.72%
FourFiveFace	139	147	48.60%
JW17	215	229	48.42%
SOOPOO	231	253	47.73%
Ten2Win	172	198	46.49%

I don't care about the money, do whatever is necessary to make it easy and happen.

I'm in. It is an even-numbered year, so I'm sure to win.

I am in and will be the clear favorite for the you suck prize

I like the idea of paying upfront especially when there are 30 people involved. However, with some of the sites the names are shown and some people dont like that.

Quote: GWAE

I like the idea of paying upfront especially when there are 30 people involved. However, with some of the sites the names are shown and some people dont like that.

I would vote to pay up front. Maybe if there is name sensitivity for some, then some volunteer (Wizard or Mission?) could receive funds from those people and put them on the fund holding site.

I'm in...and I would have a lifetime winning % of 86.3 except that some weeks I try to pick losers :)

Quote: Mission146

I think that I'm going to do the flat entry fee again, but we're going to go back to the honor system. I think it was a condition of WoN's donation that I collect the entry fees prior to the start of the contest, but I could be wrong about that. Either way, there's really no good reason I should need to hold everybody's money for seventeen weeks. It's honestly more of a PITA for me than anything else, because half of it is in the form of Amazon Gift Cards. I thought only a little of it would be. I really don't need that many Amazon Gift Cards...lol

I agree to a flat fee.
20 bucks. I think thats whats its always been?
Open to everyone.
Honor system for anybody that has participated b4
New players, i think its a good idea if Mission or somebody else trustworthy hold.

By the way I am in of course.

I am a maybe on joining, waiting on dust to settle. Yall want me to join though...dead money.

It's always a plus when the game gets interest before I even have to do anything!

Plenty of posts to answer, so here we go:

-The entry fee is going to be $25 again.

-All players must have a join date on or prior to July 1st, 2018.

-I'm going to do $75 for the, "Most Average," prize and $75 for the, "You Suck," prize. However, each player to win one of those prizes will get $50 and the remaining $25 ($50 total) will be used to pay what they owe the winner.

-If I am the, "Winner," then the, "Most Average," and, "You Suck," players get $50 each and all other winnings go to whoever comes in second place. I will also be defending the, "Most Average," and, "You Suck," prizes. Essentially, my taking any one of those three spots just saves me $50.

-I'm really more inclined to go with the honor system than paying anything for any service. Paying for a service is just EV down the toilet for everybody.

-Thanks for the stats, MidWestAP! I was thinking about compiling that and you beat me to it!

-I really think we could go honor system. This was always meant as a fun little game. I don't even think anyone bet anyone else the first year, I think I just gave $50 to whoever won.

Tentative List of Players:
1.) Terapined
2.) Mission146
3.) AyeCarumba
4.) MidwestAP
5.) UnJon
6.) Romes
7.) Rainman
8.) Wizard
9.) TroopScott
10.) GWAE
11.) JohnZimbo
12.) BeachBumBabs
13.) Gordonm888
14.) Miplet
15.) Bruce1
16.) SOOPOO
17.) EdCollins
18.) Prozema
19.) OneNickelMiracle
20.) DJATC
21.) RS
22.) JohnnyQ
23.) VCUSkyhawk (Maybe)

The honor system is destine for controversy,
people will join simply because it's free and
when it's time to pay you know whats going
to happen.

Quote: rainman

The honor system is destine for controversy,
people will join simply because it's free and
when it's time to pay you know whats going
to happen.

We did the honor system for the first four seasons and it was never a problem. I think there might have been one winner who said he might have been shorted one payment, but as I recall, he didn't keep track well enough to know who didn't pay him.

That's why I want to do a cutoff date of July 1st, 2018 for when they signed up for the site. I don't think anybody is going to try to free roll this thing, and if they do, they just won't be allowed to play again.

I will play.

VCS, it's a lot of fun. I don't know squat about picking, but I've placed in the money twice. I'm actually kind of proud to be near the top of the leaderboard. Cheapest pool you'll ever play for the money. 17 weeks of fun. I encourage you and other new people to come in.

I will play.

The ridiculous things that happened last year, ruining my Won/Loss record, couldn't possibly happen again. So, I am predicting I will finish in the top 3 this year. For sure.

Also, I think we should employ the Nathan strategy and ask the Wizard to chip in either $3,000 or $1,000,000 into the Winners Pot to sweeten it up.

And I will look forward to Babs losing a wager with someone regarding the Cleveland Browns and "winning a game" - two phrases that haven't been uttered in the same breath for a long time.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I will play.

VCS, it's a lot of fun. I don't know squat about picking, but I've placed in the money twice. I'm actually kind of proud to be near the top of the leaderboard. Cheapest pool you'll ever play for the money. 17 weeks of fun. I encourage you and other new people to come in.

I'm not new, I've been a member for nearly five years. I just mainly lurk :)

Anyways, yeah I really want to play. Its not a money issue holding me back, I've already chatted briefly with Mission. I hope to be in by the deadline. If I don't end up making it, best of luck to the winner....or should I say congratz Mike?

Of course I’m in.

Quote: VCUSkyhawk

I'm not new, I've been a member for nearly five years. I just mainly lurk :)

Anyways, yeah I really want to play. Its not a money issue holding me back, I've already chatted briefly with Mission. I hope to be in by the deadline. If I don't end up making it, best of luck to the winner....or should I say congratz Mike?

I meant new to the NFL Picks game.

Still wondering what the game is. Pick all games every week against the number? Any confidence score bonuses? Any other nuances? Many thanks.

Quote: unJon

Still wondering what the game is. Pick all games every week against the number? Any confidence score bonuses? Any other nuances? Many thanks.

Here are the Rules from last year, the rules for this year will be posted within the next few days and will be nearly identical, if not identical.

HOW TO PLAY:

The Rules will be as follows:

Format:

Winner Take All for Prize Pool (There are also two consolation prizes)

Consolation Prizes:

The first consolation prize will be the, "You suck," consolation prize. This prize goes to the player with the worst record, if there is a tie, then the winner shall be adjudicated by the normal tie breaking Rule or the players may opt to split it.

The second consolation prize will be the, "Most Average," consolation prize which goes to the player that finishes the season closest to .500. Tiebreakers will also be adjudicated using the normal tie breaking Rule or the players may opt to split it.

Rules:

1.) The winner will be determined by having the highest winning percentage. In the event of a tie, the winners will have the option of either splitting the take, or they may agree to PM me a Super Bowl pick prior to the Super Bowl, but after the combatants are known, consisting of the winning team, spread and TD's thrown; the winner will be determined in that order. If two Members PM me the same thing, they will BOTH be asked to change at least one aspect of their picks.

2.) The procedure for this will be that at some point on Thursdays, I will post the point spreads and Over/Unders from one source per week. I will likely use VegasInsider and the Spreads & Over/Unders I post will be constant and may be picked at any time prior to 10:00 EST on Sunday. If there is a Sunday game earlier than that, then you must submit Picks before kickoff of that game.

3.) Sunday/Monday games will be the only games considered. Every player must pick exactly five winners against the Spread, exactly five Over/Unders, or a combination totaling exactly five.

4.) Players may, "Skip," one week without making any picks, but they don't have to. If a player accidentally fails to submit picks, that will constitute the, "Skip," week.

For players who join the contest in Week 2, Week 1 will constitute the, "Skip," week.

5.) If a player fails to make picks for more than one week, he/she forfeits any right to a consolation prize, but may continue to play. Every week of missed picks other than the allotted, "Skip Week," will result in an 0-5 record for all weeks missed.

6.) Picks will be PM'ed to me at any point prior to 10:00 a.m. EST Sunday, all picks will be openly posted by me between that time and kickoff.

***The exception to this Rule is that I will accept E-Mail Picks from banned Members, but only if they are banned. If you are banned, you can still receive PM's, so I will PM you my E-Mail address.

7.) At some point on Tuesday or Wednesday the picks, results and updated Standings will be posted by yours truly.

8.) CONFIDENCE PICK: You may make one, "Confidence Pick," per week, though you don't have to. Your, "Confidence Pick," must be made expressly clear in your PM. The CONFIDENCE PICK result will count either as two wins or two losses, if made.

TIME

1.) The first Sunday of the Season is September 10th, Lines will be posted on Thursday, September 7th.

PICK FORMAT

I WILL be enforcing a uniform Pick format this year for all Picks as of Week 3. For the first two weeks, if you send me Picks that are not in the correct format, I will acknowledge that I have received your Picks by re-sending them to you in the correct format. Since I'm throwing $250 into the prize pool of a game that I cannot win, I don't think I am asking for too much, here.

1.) No Line Breaks

2.) For Spread picks, simply put the team nickname and the spread. (Ex: Bengals +5)

3.) For Over/Unders, simply put the team nickname for EITHER team, and the Over or Under amount. (Ex: Bengals OVER 25)

4.) To designate a Confidence Pick, simply put a hyphen and, "Confidence," after the pick. (Ex: Bengals OVER 25-Confidence)

5.) Place your screen name followed by a colon (:) above your set of Picks.

So, a full set of picks might appear:

Mission146:
Patriots -15
Patriots OVER 52
Jaguars +12
Jaguars UNDER 42
Jets +4-Confidence

Let's have a great time, as always!

Mission, you can add Bruce to your list. He doesn't post on the forums a ton, but I asked and he said he wants to play as well!

Sounds good! What's his handle?

Perhaps an asterisk should be added to the stats to indicate when the consolation prizes were added. Pick behavior changed from going for all winners to shooting for 50/50 or all losers, so the data is skewed.

I suppose that's true, but it's really tough to tell when people stop trying to win and start trying to lose.

For my part, I've always just tried to pick as well as possible. I actually kind of fear that I'll never win just because I'm too damn consistent. So far I've never picked badly, and I never picked extremely well, either!

2012: 43-35 .551
2013: 41-38 .519
2014: 40-41 .494
2015: 50-42 .544
2016: 43-33 .566
2017: 41-37 .526

Total: 258-226 .533

I fear that I'm too average for my own good, but not average enough. The year that I went .494 (if the, "Most Average," prize had existed) there were two teams who went .500!

I might go back and look through the 2015 thread one day. I have no idea why I would have made at least seven Confidence Picks. I very rarely use them.

I'm coming for you, MidwestAP! My goal this year is to overtake you for second on the all-time list!

Quote: Mission146

I suppose that's true, but it's really tough to tell when people stop trying to win and start trying to lose.

For my part, I've always just tried to pick as well as possible. I actually kind of fear that I'll never win just because I'm too damn consistent. So far I've never picked badly, and I never picked extremely well, either!

2012: 43-35 .551
2013: 41-38 .519
2014: 40-41 .494
2015: 50-42 .544
2016: 43-33 .566
2017: 41-37 .526

Total: 258-226 .533

I fear that I'm too average for my own good, but not average enough. The year that I went .494 (if the, "Most Average," prize had existed) there were two teams who went .500!

I might go back and look through the 2015 thread one day. I have no idea why I would have made at least seven Confidence Picks. I very rarely use them.

I'm coming for you, MidwestAP! My goal this year is to overtake you for second on the all-time list!

Bring it!!

Actually, to be technical, there are a number of players with higher percentages than either of us, but I didn't include them in the summary as they didn't have enough play to make the artificial minimum selection requirement that I used to create the chart.

For instance, VCUSkyhawk went 16-8 in 2014, but them must have dropped out. Likewise, Buzz has results from 2012, 2013, and 2014, but looks like he only finished one season. Regardless, his lifetime winning pct is 60.17%. Others with one or two seasons that have higher percentages include Scottimus, Romes, BoyMimbo, MWalz9, wudged, Gordonm888, JoelDeze, Boz and ZoomZoom8.

Makes sense. I'm guessing there aren't many people between 200-239 picks, anyway, so you'd have to drop it all the way down to something like 150 to increase the range. I think 150 would be the lowest rasonable total of wins/losses for two full seasons played. Any less than that would take a ton of pushes.

Buzz was a monster at this game. It's a shame with all of the tough stuff he has had to deal with over the years. No offense to the Wizard, but I wouldn't be shocked if Buzz had taken the title one of the three years that Wizard won it.

Quote: Mission146

Sounds good! What's his handle?

Bruce1

Quote: gordonm888

I will play.

So, I am predicting I will finish in the top 3 this year. For sure.

I'll give you 2-1 odds you don't on any amount up to $1,000.

Quote: Wizard

I'm in. It is an even-numbered year, so I'm sure to win.

I'll give you 5-1 odds on any amount up o $200 that you don't. (I'll risk $1,000)

I'm in, by the way.

Quote: SOOPOO

I'll give you 5-1 odds on any amount up o $200 that you don't. (I'll risk $1,000)

Will you give me the same odds/bet? That I'll make it in to the top 3? Any interest on top 5?

The year I won it was on the honor system.

Not everyone paid me, despite my e-mails and reminders. I've never forgotten that, naturally.

Not going that route again. (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.)

I'm out this year.

Hope everyone enjoys the contest.

Quote: Mission146

Makes sense. I'm guessing there aren't many people between 200-239 picks, anyway, so you'd have to drop it all the way down to something like 150 to increase the range. I think 150 would be the lowest rasonable total of wins/losses for two full seasons played. Any less than that would take a ton of pushes.

Buzz was a monster at this game. It's a shame with all of the tough stuff he has had to deal with over the years. No offense to the Wizard, but I wouldn't be shocked if Buzz had taken the title one of the three years that Wizard won it.

Quite possibly. The first year (2012), Buzz was 20-5 when he dropped. Wizard finished over 70%, so that would have been quite a potential battle. As far as total selections, there is quite a gap below 279 selections. Only two players total picks between 190 and 279.

Can't wait to get this thing going!

Quote: EdCollins

The year I won it was on the honor system.

Not everyone paid me, despite my e-mails and reminders. I've never forgotten that, naturally.

Not going that route again. (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.)

I'm out this year.

Hope everyone enjoys the contest.

Nooooooo!!!! We got to do something to get this right. You are a constant in this competition, and very valued for the work you put into it with your weekly results! I'd also like to know who didn't pay, I think they should make things right, or be outed and banned from WOV games!!

Quote: MidwestAP

Nooooooo!!!! We got to do something to get this right. You are a constant in this competition, and very valued for the work you put into it with your weekly results! I'd also like to know who didn't pay, I think they should make things right, or be outed and banned from WOV games!!

I appreciate your comments.

Mission sent me a private e-mail and in a nutshell, after reading it I decided I will play after all, even if it's on the honor system. So yes, I'm in.

I suspect I still have notes on who didn't pay. (I think this was back in 2015.) I don't know if they are still active members here or not. I suppose it's all irrelevant anyway.

Quote: EdCollins

The year I won it was on the honor system.

Not everyone paid me, despite my e-mails and reminders. I've never forgotten that, naturally.

Not going that route again. (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.)

I'm out this year.

Hope everyone enjoys the contest.

I really, really hope you reconsider. No idea who stiffed you or what happened, but perhaps it can be fixed? PM me?

You have simply GOT to play, Ed! It's the only time of year I get to see you.

I think it was the Wizard who stiffed him :)

Quote: Johnzimbo

I think it was the Wizard who stiffed him :)

Blasphemy! (Playful joke);) Wizard is as good as Gold! :)

Quote: SOOPOO

I'll give you 5-1 odds on any amount up o $200 that you don't. (I'll risk $1,000)

Give me 3 to 1 Wizard in the top 3?

Quote: AxelWolf

Give me 3 to 1 Wizard in the top 3?

Wizard has WON OUTRIGHT three of six years! LOL

If you gentlemen have the room and want dead money added, I would like to play.

Quote: prozema

If you gentlemen have the room and want dead money added, I would like to play.

We have our winner! He's luling us into a false sense of security.