2018 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)
Quote: Mission146It's always a plus when the game gets interest before I even have to do anything!
Plenty of posts to answer, so here we go:
-The entry fee is going to be $25 again.
-All players must have a join date on or prior to July 1st, 2018.
It's too late? Any way in? Thx.
Quote: IndyJeffreyIt's too late? Any way in? Thx.
Welcome.back, Indy! Plenty of time. You're on the list.
Our cat Rico was essentially part of the family, and he had issues from time to time with his urinary tract. Eventually he got very sick from something else, and despite the vets' best efforts, they couldn't turn it around ( even figure out exactly what it was ) and we lost him. I hope ol' Sylvester gets well soon, it is never easy. Rico had a very nice life with us for many years, and we in turn enjoyed having him with us.Quote: EdCollinsThe cat you see as my avatar is Sylvester.
One of the most heart-wrenching experiences I have had was when my youngest daughter had to say the final goodbye to her cat Mollie at the vet's office.
He said to me "Some of the sharpest people (on the subject of football) watch every NFL game, study film and help set the lines at the sportsbooks - which are then shifted to reflect the early bets of really sharp bettors. What do you think you saw when you watched an NFL game that wasn't noticed by the people who are setting the line?"
I personally will watch some games and Sportscenter game summaries each week, but I don't discount NFL Pick Contestants who don't watch at all.
Quote: gordonm888I knew a full-time professional sports bettor who generally did not watch the sports he bet on. He would closely watch the line movement, the injury reports, and follow the way people wagered in contests at certain on-line sports books and use that to make decisions. He claimed to win consistently (on average) year after year.
He said to me "Some of the sharpest people (on the subject of football) watch every NFL game, study film and help set the lines at the sportsbooks - which are then shifted to reflect the early bets of really sharp bettors. What do you think you saw when you watched an NFL game that wasn't noticed by the people who are setting the line?"
I personally will watch some games and Sportscenter game summaries each week, but I don't discount NFL Pick Contestants who don't watch at all.
I don't think there's enough time in the day to watch every game you bet on. I do enjoy loading up Yahoo sports and seeing all the scores and checking my wins and losses tho.
PM me with your method of payment, and I will set it up with each individual as needed.
I am signing up with venmo today to provide an additional avenue. However, I would like a few days for the dust to settle/verify whatever before anybody tries to use it. I'll let you know how that one goes.
Just to be clear, there is no overhead on this game, no administrative expenses. All entry money will be used to pay the winners, with +ev added in Mission's freeroll of Most Average and You Suck prizes.
Mission previously put forward a deadline of Sept 8, which is the Saturday of Week 1. Let's set a time of 11:59pm Vegas time that Saturday night for payment to be received, for your entry to be valid.
Thanks everybody! Looking forward to the game!
Quote: beachbumbabsMission previously put forward a deadline of Sept 8, which is the Saturday of Week 1. Let's set a time of 11:59pm Vegas time that Saturday night for payment to be received, for your entry to be valid.
Just want to confirm that late entries up to week 2 will not be allowed. Mission had said that had been allowed in the past with week 1 being your skip week. Is this no longer being allowed? If so that is fine, I just wanted to know if I had that first week as wiggle room.
Thanks
Quote: VCUSkyhawkJust want to confirm that late entries up to week 2 will not be allowed. Mission had said that had been allowed in the past with week 1 being your skip week. Is this no longer being allowed? If so that is fine, I just wanted to know if I had that first week as wiggle room.
Thanks
I would say yes, late entry, full amount, skip week used, deadline Sept 15, same time. But that skip week can be really valuable, so can't say I recommend it.
Quote: unJonAre the rankings determined solely by win % with pushes ignored?
Yes
Quote: unJonAre the rankings determined solely by win % with pushes ignored?
Let's say you make an entry with a confidence pick. The best you can go that week will be 6-0. Your confidence pick is on a team with +3 or -3 on the spread. The (edit: favorite) wins by 3.
Everyone who picked that game will not have it added to their running totals of wins and losses. In your case, since you made 4 other picks correctly, your record for that week will be 4-0.
There is no vig, just a simple win percentage, so it's not to your benefit to push, but it's not to your detriment, either, because nobody gained on you for that game, either. It does hurt, though, if it was your confidence pick, and somebody else who picked it just used it as a single pick of the required 5. Comes out even against somebody who didn't make a confidence pick, though.
It's also worth noting that Midwest AP won going away last year, and I'm pretty sure he never made a confidence pick. I did make a confidence pick every week last year - think it benefited me by one game at most.
Probably more into the weeds than just answering your question, but hope it's helpful.
Thank you, very helpful. In your example, I assume you meant the favorite wins by 3 not the dog.Quote: beachbumbabsLet's say you make an entry with a confidence pick. The best you can go that week will be 6-0. Your confidence pick is on a team with +3 or -3 on the spread. The dog wins by 3.
Everyone who picked that game will not have it added to their running totals of wins and losses. In your case, since you made 4 other picks correctly, your record for that week will be 4-0.
There is no vig, just a simple win percentage, so it's not to your benefit to push, but it's not to your detriment, either, because nobody gained on you for that game, either. It does hurt, though, if it was your confidence pick, and somebody else who picked it just used it as a single pick of the required 5. Comes out even against somebody who didn't make a confidence pick, though.
It's also worth noting that Midwest AP won going away last year, and I'm pretty sure he never made a confidence pick. I did make a confidence pick every week last year - think it benefited me by one game at most.
Probably more into the weeds than just answering your question, but hope it's helpful.
Basically, I just wanted to confirm that someone that goes 48-32 for a 66.7% win rate (one skip week and zero pushes) would be tied in rankings with someone that went 45-30-5 (one skip week and five pushes) for the same 66.7% win rate. [I used 2/3 win rate to make the math work out easy for multiples of five, recognize this may be an unlikely outcome.]
Quote: unJonThank you, very helpful. In your example, I assume you meant the favorite wins by 3 not the dog.
Basically, I just wanted to confirm that someone that goes 48-32 for a 66.7% win rate (one skip week and zero pushes) would be tied in rankings with someone that went 45-30-5 (one skip week and five pushes) for the same 66.7% win rate. [I used 2/3 win rate to make the math work out easy for multiples of five, recognize this may be an unlikely outcome.]
Yeah, dammit, I'm spread-lexic. Glad you understood anyway, thanks, and yes, your example, those two people would be tied.
I gotta say, everyone here would be thrilled to go 66.7% over a season. It's a minimum of 85 games you're picking, so that would be a great record.
Yes, a final score of 48-32 would indeed tie with someone that finished with a final score 45-30. Pushes are ignored completely. (Note however, that in that example, the percentage in both cases is .60, not .667.)Quote: unJon...Basically, I just wanted to confirm that someone that goes 48-32 for a 66.7% win rate (one skip week and zero pushes) would be tied in rankings with someone that went 45-30-5 (one skip week and five pushes) for the same 66.7% win rate. [I used 2/3 win rate to make the math work out easy for multiples of five, recognize this may be an unlikely outcome.]
Thank you, I’m math-lexic.Quote: EdCollinsYes, a final score of 48-32 would indeed tie with someone that finished with a final score 45-30. Pushes are ignored completely. (Note however, that in that example, the percentage in both cases is .60, not .667.)Quote: unJon...Basically, I just wanted to confirm that someone that goes 48-32 for a 66.7% win rate (one skip week and zero pushes) would be tied in rankings with someone that went 45-30-5 (one skip week and five pushes) for the same 66.7% win rate. [I used 2/3 win rate to make the math work out easy for multiples of five, recognize this may be an unlikely outcome.]
Quote: unJonThank you, very helpful. In your example, I assume you meant the favorite wins by 3 not the dog.
Basically, I just wanted to confirm that someone that goes 48-32 for a 66.7% win rate (one skip week and zero pushes) would be tied in rankings with someone that went 45-30-5 (one skip week and five pushes) for the same 66.7% win rate. [I used 2/3 win rate to make the math work out easy for multiples of five, recognize this may be an unlikely outcome.]
Yes, win % determines the winner
If we have a tie
2 choices
Split the winning or make a super bowl prediction to determine the overall winner
I think a tie will be extremely rare.
Here are the rues
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31257-2018-wov-picks-game-discussion-thread/#post666392
Quote: terapinedQuote: unJonThank you, very helpful. In your example, I assume you meant the favorite wins by 3 not the dog.
Basically, I just wanted to confirm that someone that goes 48-32 for a 66.7% win rate (one skip week and zero pushes) would be tied in rankings with someone that went 45-30-5 (one skip week and five pushes) for the same 66.7% win rate. [I used 2/3 win rate to make the math work out easy for multiples of five, recognize this may be an unlikely outcome.]
Yes, win % determines the winner
If we have a tie
2 choices
Split the winning or make a super bowl prediction to determine the overall winner
I think a tie will be extremely rare.
Here are the rues
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31257-2018-wov-picks-game-discussion-thread/#post666392
Caveat: those were last year's rules. This year will probably be extremely similar, but Mission has reserved the right to modify. In the next week or so, he will start a thread called 2018 picks game - official thread, and those will rule.
| Member | Escrow | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Axelwolf | Maybe | |
| Ayecarumba | ||
| BeachBumBabs | $25 | |
| Bruce1 | $25 | |
| djatc | $25 | |
| EdCollins | $25 | |
| Gordonm888 | ||
| GWAE | ||
| IndyJeffrey | $25 | |
| JohnnyQ | ||
| JohnZimbo | ||
| MaxPen | Maybe | |
| MidwestAP | ||
| Miplet | ||
| Mission146 | ||
| OneNickelMiracle | ||
| Prozema | $25 | |
| Rainman | ||
| Romes | $25 | |
| RS | Possibly | |
| SOOPOO | ||
| Terapined | $25 | |
| TroopScott | $25 | extra $25 escrow in reserve |
| unJon | ||
| VCUSkyhawk | ||
| Wizard | ||
| Total 26 | Total $225 |
Hey that was a GREAT STRATEGY for the first few weeks of last year lol. Then I found my secret sauce ;-)...Quote: JohnnyQOK, my default will be the exact opposite of whatever ROMES picks.
ha j/k
Quote: prozemaI'm curious... What was the difference in win percent between the best and worst player in past games?
2012: Wizard-.713*, RStrata-.387 (Difference .326)
2013: AyeCaumba-.586 AssWhooperMcDaddy-.340 (Difference .246)
2014: Wizard-.700* Ten2Win .433 (Difference .267)
2015: EdCollins-.590 WizardofNothing .387 (Difference .203)
2016: Wizard-.634 PlayYourCardsRight-.384 (Difference .250)
2017: MidwestAP .612 OdiousGambit .395 (Difference .217)
NOTES:
-The, "You Suck," prize started being awarded in the 2015 season. With that said, big kudos to everyone who came in last from 2012-2014 for finishing out the game because they had been playing for no reason for several weeks. That's good sportsmanship.
-The, "Worst Records," for each year only count people who had enough games to have finished out the season. If someone dropped out early, as often happened between 2012-2014, (nothing to play for) then that is not reflected above.
*Wizard is currently under investigation by the WoVPGHWC (Wizard of Vegas Picks Game Health and Wellness Committee) under suspicion of using a PES (Pick Enhancing Substance) for the years 2012 and 2014. The WoVPGHWC is satisfied that Wizard's 2016 results were not enhanced by any PES' due to improved testing measures first implemented by the league in 2015.
--Results thus far are inconclusive. (Kidding, of course)
That is astonishing.
Forget Rubiks cube. How about a video on how Wizard picks the NFL against the line?
Quote: Mission1462012: Wizard-.713*, RStrata-.387 (Difference .326)
2013: AyeCaumba-.586 AssWhooperMcDaddy-.340 (Difference .246)
2014: Wizard-.700* Ten2Win .433 (Difference .267)
2015: EdCollins-.590 WizardofNothing .387 (Difference .203)
2016: Wizard-.634 PlayYourCardsRight-.384 (Difference .250)
2017: MidwestAP .612 OdiousGambit .395 (Difference .217)
Do you have any idea why the 15 and 13 season were very low in terms of win rate for the top person?
Quote: gordonm888Holy crap. Wizard twice picked at or over 70% for a full season? Really?
That is astonishing.
Forget Rubiks cube. How about a video on how Wizard picks the NFL against the line?
All I have to say is that he's not playing against Vegas or online books
Stale lines. Lines are posted on Thursday night and can become stale before picks are due.Quote: gordonm888Holy crap. Wizard twice picked at or over 70% for a full season? Really?
That is astonishing.
Forget Rubiks cube. How about a video on how Wizard picks the NFL against the line?
Quote: mipletStale lines. Lines are posted on Thursday night and can become stale before picks are due.
Perhaps others that know sports betting can comment, or perhaps the Wizard himself can confirm is this was the case. However I dont think stale lines would be enough to account for a 70% win rate over the course of a season...that is crushing it in my opinion.
Aren't the two words synonyms? According to Webster, maybe means possibly.Quote: RSCan you change me from a "maybe" in that list, babs, to a "possibly"? Thanks.
Quote: EdCollinsAren't the two words synonyms? According to Webster, maybe means possibly.
"Call me possibly" doesn't have the same ring to it.
LOL. Ah, I get it now. My bad.Quote: VCUSkyhawk"Call me possibly" doesn't have the same ring to it.
Good one.
Quote: djatcDo you have any idea why the 15 and 13 season were very low in terms of win rate for the top person?
As a group, we were AWFUL in 2013. We picked at .485, which is just putrid as a group, in fact, that's the only year the group fell below .500. I think we
Your guess is as good as mine on 2015, that was our second-best year as a group. Maybe Wizard just wasn't paying as much attention that year...
Quote: Mission146
2012: (Difference .326)
2013: (Difference .246)
2014: (Difference .267)
2015: (Difference .203)
2016: (Difference .250)
2017: (Difference .217)
I did some trimming of the quote.
Throwing away the largest and smallest, I'm getting .245 spread... Just a little less than a 21 pick margin between the winner and loser.
Maximum of 17 of those points are confidence picks worth double, so you could make up 81% of the gap if people could bank their conference picks and use them when they see fit.... Like to get an early lead or catch up ground in the end.
Don't change any rules on my account, but If people are tapping early, this might be a potential solution.
I could be wrong, but I think last year every single player could conceivably win a prize going into Week 17, which is actually better than I hoped for. My goal was for nobody to be knocked out of any hope of a prize prior to Week 16.
Quote: prozemaI'll just try and use my 17 wisely.
Just a reminder that the confidence picks cannot be banked. One is available each week, and if you don’t use it you lose it.
Quote: AyecarumbaJust a reminder that the confidence picks cannot be banked. One is available each week, and if you don’t use it you lose it.
Thanks for the reminder. I get it.
I was just trying to come up with a theory on how someone gets to a 70% win rate.
Quote: Mission146As a group, we were AWFUL in 2013. We picked at .485, which is just putrid as a group, in fact, that's the only year the group fell below .500. I think we
Your guess is as good as mine on 2015, that was our second-best year as a group. Maybe Wizard just wasn't paying as much attention that year...
Just found this article today about how 2015 scores in the NFL were “weird.” Take it for what’s it is worth but I thought it was an interesting read.
https://www.eldo.co/a-complete-history-of-nfl-points-scores-and-scoring.html
Quote: prozemaWhen might we expect to get the lines for week 1?
Usually the Thursday before that Sunday, give or take a day. So a couple weeks yet.
Quote: beachbumbabsUsually the Thursday before that Sunday, give or take a day. So a couple weeks yet.
Miplet has his program that converts the VegasInsider Lines to the format that I use for this game usually linked in the thread. (Thanks, Miplet!)
With that said, if I do not have the lines posted by Thursday at 23:59 EST, then any player who sees that is welcome to do it. Things happen sometimes, but posting the lines is such an easy thing to do, that we want to make sure that gets done.
The lines will almost never be posted on Wednesdays. The only way that happens is if I know there is a very good chance I won't be available Thursday.
| Member | Escrow | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Axelwolf | Maybe | |
| Ayecarumba | ||
| BeachBumBabs | $25 | |
| Bruce1 | $25 | |
| djatc | $25 | |
| EdCollins | $25 | |
| Gordonm888 | ||
| GWAE | ||
| IndyJeffrey | $25 | |
| JohnnyQ | ||
| JohnZimbo | ||
| kuma | ||
| MaxPen | Maybe | |
| MidwestAP | ||
| Miplet | ||
| Mission146 | ||
| OdiousGambit | ||
| OneNickelMiracle | ||
| Prozema | $25 | |
| Rainman | ||
| Romes | $25 | |
| RS | Possibly | |
| SOOPOO | ||
| Terapined | $25 | |
| TroopScott | $25 | extra $25 escrow in reserve |
| unJon | $25 | |
| VCUSkyhawk | ||
| Wizard | ||
| Total 28 | Total $250 |
This is current to today.
Venmo account is now verified, and can be used.
PayPal is preferred.
Amazon gift cards also good.
Thanks, guys!
We are accepting new players until September 8 (late entry 15th). Cmon in!
Bad variance There are 16 x16 games in a season - not a large number.
Covariance. You will see that in the picks contest there are often some games which are chosen and picked the same way by a lot of contestants. Like 13 contestants all taking Patriots -7.
Large variance
- injuries. Sometimes everyone picks the Packers to beat the spread and Aaron Rodgers gets injured early in the game. That's an extreme example, but in-game injuries are both unpredictable and frequent and losing one of your best linemen or cornerbacks in a game can be decisive.
- weird plays in the closing minutes, Tipped balls. Blocked kicks. Pick-6s.
- borderline officiating calls. Was that pass interference? Did the receiver maintain possession? Was that targeting? Spin the wheel and bet on where it stops!
That's why I think the Wizard's record of 70% and 71% for about 80 picks in each of 2 seasons is amazing. And 63% in a 3rd season? If someone claimed that without documentation, you would surely think it was BS.
Quote: gordonm888That's why I think the Wizard's record of 70% and 71% for about 80 picks in each of 2 seasons is amazing. And 63% in a 3rd season? If someone claimed that without documentation, you would surely think it was BS.
It seems perhaps Wizard had very good success with "confidence" picks. (Someone probably has that record.) If you were placing real wagers on these games, having a good record with your confidence picks (assuming larger wagers) would increase your ROI, but not your win rate. In this game it inflates your win rate, since the sample is small to begin with.
(Am I thinking of this clearly?)
Quote: kumaIt seems perhaps Wizard had very good success with "confidence" picks. (Someone probably has that record.) If you were placing real wagers on these games, having a good record with your confidence picks (assuming larger wagers) would increase your ROI, but not your win rate. In this game it inflates your win rate, since the sample is small to begin with.
(Am I thinking of this clearly?)
Wizard offered in another thread to use his picks to make wagers for a pool. We should create a pool and take him up on that....
Quote: troopscottWizard offered in another thread to use his picks to make wagers for a pool. We should create a pool and take him up on that....
As long as he doesnt pick any "no safety" prop bets. JK Wiz...I had to.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm almost tempted to go straight after biggest loser with the worst record. Second idea, we should have a seperate game for anyone that has never been in the top 5 any year, just for the suckers in this game.
I would still be dead money
