General Sports Talk

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(completely snipped some other quotes)
I "like*** " the Steelers in Tonight's game.

***: Like may be too strong a word, but I did have 250 @ +320 on them to win by 4 (or more).
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I love your takes!!!! Don’t forget to give me the college long shot pointspread/ over-under parlays. I’m going to try them this week!
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Yeah, using pinnacle and other 'books as a guide, I estimated the EV to be about +$20 to +$25 for the above Steelers' bet.

Also, I was just about to finish writing a scenario for a "college game " this week (see below).

Note: Other people could have different figures/estimates, but for the game mentioned below I currently have ~73% as the combined chance for the, " 'dog x under " and " fav' x over" (at 39% and 34%, respectively).

Quote: Mission146

(snip)
Offsetting, as I have mentioned, is something that I like for those with low bankroll such as to guarantee profits and/or make a loss impossible. Even people who do not have a low bankroll may find satisfaction in locking up guaranteed profits on something like this, but making the bet that does not have the boost, it must be mentioned, would detract from the overall value as we would assume it is not a good bet on its own.
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I agree with Mission, that offsetting / hedging "would detract from the overall value" for most scenarios (especially if your goal is maximizing "% EV on turnover").
But, it could be great for " maximizing $ EV" in certain situations (see "real life" scenario I could bet on this week, if I wanted to, below).

Scenario:
Game (College Football): CONNECTICUT @ NC STATE
Bet Type: Line/Total Double
Best odds on offer (with just two different 'books):
NC State -38.5 / Over 49.5 @ +265 ***
NC State -38.5 / Under 49.5 @ +650
Connecticut +38.5 / Over 49.5 @ +600
Connecticut +38.5 / Under 49.5 @ +250 ***

***: IMO, the "combined average" estimated EV is about 30.4% for these bets (~24% for the "Fav x Over" and the ~36% " 'dog x Under") .

Yet, if I "offset" evenly^^^ into the other two options @ +650 and +600, then my estimated EV "lowers to about +19.6...%".

^^^: If I do this so the payout is pretty much exactly the same on all options, then the estimated EV = the actual EV.

Then, from the above scenario, we can compare the "$ EV" of the two different types of bets, by applying a "modified " full Kelly betting to both bets (see 1 + 2, below).

Note 1: Assume $100,000 is the maximum you have to bet on either option.
Note 2: "Full Kelly" is the maximum you should bet (generally you would bet much smaller, especially on sports betting).

1) The "only bet on out-comes with a + estimated EV" method (simplified):
. The combined odds of our "estimated +EV" bets is: -127.11... or $1.786...
. The combined estimated EV of those bets is: about 30.4...%
. The Full Kelly amount is: 30.4...% / ($1.786... - 1) = 38.68%...
. The combined amount to bet on the two "+EV options" is ~$38,680 in total.
. $38,680 x ~30.4% = ~$11,760
. Therefore, the maximum / Full Kelly "$ EV" of the bet is ~$11,760, when betting on only the "+ estimated EV" options.

2) The "bet on all the out-comes, to guarantee a profit" method:
. The odds available for all the options are: +265 ($3.65), +650 ($7.5), +600($7) and +250 ($3.5)
. This comes to a "bookmakers' %" of (1/3.65) + (1/7.5) + (1/7) + (1/3.5) = 0.8358... = 83.58...%
. If you can get on all options evenly, then the the actual RTP, would be 1/0.8358... = 119.6...%
. The EV is 119.6% - 100% = 19.6...%
. You would bet a maximum of $100,000
. $100,000 x 19.6...% = ~$19,630 in "$ EV"

. The $19,630 "maximum $ EV" from "2)" is about $7,870 higher than "maximum $ EV" you would get from "1)".

----
Pros & Cons:

I was going to write the main Pros and Cons for "1)" and 2", but I think most of those can be worked out fairly easily, from the info above.

The only "major" con that I thought worth mentioning for "2)" that happened to me was, that my limits with one of the 'books is practically $0 now for the sport### that I used to do this heavily on.

###: I was doing a similar thing with the "line x total" on NRL (Australian Rugby League) games.

----
Hope this makes sense, spelling not checked well (as I want to go and watch the NFL game, that is on now).

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Update - Edits (just after half-time for the Steelers' game):

General: I made some minor edits in this post.

Also, I decided to strike-through the "major con" above, because that probably would have happened, whether I did something like "method 1)" or "method 2)", with the bets for the NRL

I was actually ahead for the day heading into the last play of the game….. had Steelers plus 7.5, Harris TD, Chubb TD. 8-1.

Oh well…..

Quote: tuttigym

20-19 Alabama. They got it wrong.

tuttigym
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Who are “they” ?

In the NCAAF, I am looking at the "1st score a TD" odds for three games.

1) Kent State / Georgia has this @ -220 (the line / total for the game is: 45 / 62)
2) Central Michigan / Penn State has this @ -420 (the line / total for the game is: 28 / 63)
3) Baylor / Iowa State has this @ -230 (the line / total for the game is: 2.5 / 45.5)

Just by going through the other college football markets (not just "2)" and "3)" above) I think the "Kent State" one is likely + EV^^^ ?

^^^: I probably won't have anymore than 2200 on it if I do bet, because I usually like to know what the estimated EV is before I bet bigger than that.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich

The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play

the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers

I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play


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I predict Browns 27, Steelers 13.

very nice call AZ

when you're right you're right

and as for me - when I'm wrong - I'm dead wrong


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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AZDuffman

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I predict Browns 27, Steelers 13.

very nice call AZ

when you're right you're right

and as for me - when I'm wrong - I'm dead wrong


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Thanks. I went to bed early, looks like I even made sure not to ovderbid, lol

Now only if I had bet more than $5.........

ksdjdj, many years ago I did some work on the difference between spreads and totals. I found that when the difference was at 15 or below there was a likely positive outcome. It looks like your UCONN v NC State game falls into that.

deleted - bad post


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Quote: DRich

ksdjdj, many years ago I did some work on the difference between spreads and totals. I found that when the difference was at 15 or below there was a likely positive outcome. It looks like your UCONN v NC State game falls into that.
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Not quite following. Can you show some example math?

Quote: DRich

ksdjdj, many years ago I did some work on the difference between spreads and totals. I found that when the difference was at 15 or below there was a likely positive outcome. It looks like your UCONN v NC State game falls into that.
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That's interesting.
I may have posted this before, but the link below is how I work out whether a parlay would likely be + EV or not.
I also try to look for games with a line / total of 50% or more.

Scroll down to the section that starts with "Why No Same Game Parlays in Football? They Are Correlated" and then look for "College Football"

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: DRich

ksdjdj, many years ago I did some work on the difference between spreads and totals. I found that when the difference was at 15 or below there was a likely positive outcome. It looks like your UCONN v NC State game falls into that.
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Not quite following. Can you show some example math?
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Just subtract the spread on the game from the total. For example, if the total is 55 and the line is 42 the difference is 13. I found when that number is less than 15 there are good betting opportunities.

___________


𝘼𝙇𝙇 𝙃𝘼𝙄𝙇 𝙆𝙄𝙉𝙂 𝘼𝙇𝘽𝙀𝙍𝙏 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝙂𝙍𝙀𝘼𝙏


he joined the 700 club last night - the most exclusive club in the world


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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/sports/baseball/albert-pujols-700-home-runs.html


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ALL RISE!!

In three words: Matt Canada sucks.

In more words: https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/this_oc_sucks_week_3/

I was confused about an NFL game starting so early in the morning but now I understand it’s the NFL’s brilliant decision to spread the game by exposing fans in England first hand to the glory of a Kirk Cousins vs Andy Dalton matchup.

How much worse would these "no-calls" have been if the Packers lost*** (see link below)
"Play clock- TD "

***: Unless you are a "hard-core" Patriots fan.

Also, lucky for me that it happened, otherwise my Packers by 3 bet would have very likely been a loser.

Great week for Georgia sports. The week started out by GA Tech firing their head football coach and Athletic Director.
The Braves swept the Mets. The UGA Dawgs won (very ugly). The GA Tech Jackets won. They beat No. 24 Pitt. Their team has been awful for 3+ years. The Falcons won. If someone were to parley those outcomes, they could retire.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Great week for Georgia sports. The week started out by GA Tech firing their head football coach and Athletic Director.
The Braves swept the Mets. The UGA Dawgs won (very ugly). The GA Tech Jackets won. They beat No. 24 Pitt. Their team has been awful for 3+ years. The Falcons won. If someone were to parley those outcomes, they could retire.

tuttigym
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Hey, nothing to do with this thread, but I want to apologize to you for often being more condescending than was absolutely necessary. That's all. No response needed and I would prefer no response to this post.

Bills are -14 against the Steelers with extra juice! (-114 I saw this morning, I admit before 8 EST is still an early line) Anyone taking that?

I sort of predicted the Steelers will get 5 or so wins this year. They are bad. But laying 14?

Quote: AZDuffman

Bills are -14 against the Steelers with extra juice! (-114 I saw this morning, I admit before 8 EST is still an early line) Anyone taking that?

I sort of predicted the Steelers will get 5 or so wins this year. They are bad. But laying 14?
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Funny you should bring this up. I always text my son and we guess the Bills spread. I guessed 11, he guessed 16! I’m leaning towards taking the points. Last two Bills games against Dolphins and Ravens they’ve scored as many as they’ve given up. Injuries hamstringing the Bills. Third WR (Crowder) lost for the year.

Quote: AZDuffman

Bills are -14 against the Steelers with extra juice! (-114 I saw this morning, I admit before 8 EST is still an early line) Anyone taking that?

I sort of predicted the Steelers will get 5 or so wins this year. They are bad. But laying 14?
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Using just the points for and against so far this year, I would have thought it would be about -13.5.

Important: The "for and against " method*** I used above is only a rough / "ball-park" figure, because it doesn't take into account any other factors (like "recent past / this seasons' games, strength of schedule", "important players out", etc).

***: The way I do it is similar to the one in the link here

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Bills are -14 against the Steelers with extra juice! (-114 I saw this morning, I admit before 8 EST is still an early line) Anyone taking that?

I sort of predicted the Steelers will get 5 or so wins this year. They are bad. But laying 14?
link to original post

Funny you should bring this up. I always text my son and we guess the Bills spread. I guessed 11, he guessed 16! I’m leaning towards taking the points. Last two Bills games against Dolphins and Ravens they’ve scored as many as they’ve given up. Injuries hamstringing the Bills. Third WR (Crowder) lost for the year.
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Maybe you could guest on the show? I was way off on my guess of 8. But good thing I do not set the lines. OTOH I guessed the Browns against the Steelers near spot-on. And they did not come close then. The teams that came close to the Bills are, what is the word, uh........good! The Steelers really should probably be 0-4. But that said, 14 is just a lot of points in the NFL. Every last time I see a big spread like that I take the wrong end.

All that being said, I have to wonder if this means the linemakers are saying the Steelrs are now one of the worst teams in the NFL?

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Bills are -14 against the Steelers with extra juice! (-114 I saw this morning, I admit before 8 EST is still an early line) Anyone taking that?

I sort of predicted the Steelers will get 5 or so wins this year. They are bad. But laying 14?
link to original post

Funny you should bring this up. I always text my son and we guess the Bills spread. I guessed 11, he guessed 16! I’m leaning towards taking the points. Last two Bills games against Dolphins and Ravens they’ve scored as many as they’ve given up. Injuries hamstringing the Bills. Third WR (Crowder) lost for the year.
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Maybe you could guest on the show? I was way off on my guess of 8. But good thing I do not set the lines. OTOH I guessed the Browns against the Steelers near spot-on. And they did not come close then. The teams that came close to the Bills are, what is the word, uh........good! The Steelers really should probably be 0-4. But that said, 14 is just a lot of points in the NFL. Every last time I see a big spread like that I take the wrong end.

All that being said, I have to wonder if this means the linemakers are saying the Steelrs are now one of the worst teams in the NFL?
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I think the Steelers are certainly in the conversation for worst team in the league when TJ Watt is out. No QB is a problem.

All Rise!!! Judge goes 62!

Good season for Judge. Probably secures him second place in AL MVP race.

As amazing as Ohtani has been, I’d vote for Judge.

It’s hard to vote for the best peach over the best pear, or the best pear over the best peach. Or apples and oranges….

___________


18 year old 7'4" Victor Wembanyama is getting rave reviews - brings the ball upcourt - shoots threes

projected no. 1 NBA pick





https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/10/05/victor-wembanyama-g-league-exhibition/


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Quote: SOOPOO

I think the Steelers are certainly in the conversation for worst team in the league when TJ Watt is out. No QB is a problem.
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I agree. Without TJ Watt on defense and an untested rookie QB, and with a surprisingly low level of talent elsewhere, there's not much to alarm other teams. TJ Watt is a difference maker.

However, the Bears and Texans are probably at the bottom of the league.

For some reason, #9 Tennessee (4-0) at #25 LSU (4-1) was scheduled by the TV decision-makers as a noon game -which is 11:00 a.m. in Louisiana where it will be played. It figures to be the best game of the week in the SEC but scheduling kick-off at about 11 a.m is tough on the teams and on the fans attending the game.

________________


key player but also problematical Draymond Green punches his teammate Jordan Poole in the face during practice

this dude needs some serious disciplining






https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/07/sports/basketball/draymond-green-jordan-poole-punch-video.html



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Quote: gordonm888

For some reason, #9 Tennessee (4-0) at #25 LSU (4-1) was scheduled by the TV decision-makers as a noon game -which is 11:00 a.m. in Louisiana where it will be played. It figures to be the best game of the week in the SEC but scheduling kick-off at about 11 a.m is tough on the teams and on the fans attending the game.
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Rabid fans have to get up an hour earlier, add bacon and eggs to the tailgate menus. I guess there will be some hardships, but most will survive.

tuttigym

Quote: gordonm888

For some reason, #9 Tennessee (4-0) at #25 LSU (4-1) was scheduled by the TV decision-makers as a noon game -which is 11:00 a.m. in Louisiana where it will be played. It figures to be the best game of the week in the SEC but scheduling kick-off at about 11 a.m is tough on the teams and on the fans attending the game.
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An 11am game sounds perfect to me if I was attending. I will be in Baton Rouge for a game in four weeks.

Quote: DRich

An 11am game sounds perfect to me if I was attending. I will be in Baton Rouge for a game in four weeks.
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LOL, turns out it was perfect for Tennessee, 40-13.

So, in car listening on way home from work I think "hmm, seems like worst loss since 1989."

Get home, watch end of game. Announcer says "Worst Steeler loss since 1989!"*

What kind of person knows this stuff?

*Worst since a 51-0 home opener loss to (old) Cleveland Browns. Next week lost 41-10 to Bengals.

Really, what kind of person am I to remember this??

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Tom Brady gets a call just because he's Tom Brady

roughing the passer_____________? _____ no way






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Quote: lilredrooster

______________


Tom Brady gets a call just because he's Tom Brady

roughing the passer_____________? _____ no way

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My son sent me the same video of the tackle. I think that is a penalty in flag football. Fire that official!

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


Tom Brady gets a call just because he's Tom Brady

roughing the passer_____________? _____ no way

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My son sent me the same video of the tackle. I think that is a penalty in flag football. Fire that official!
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I tend to side with officials, but that was ridiculous.

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


Tom Brady gets a call just because he's Tom Brady

roughing the passer_____________? _____ no way

.
link to original post

My son sent me the same video of the tackle. I think that is a penalty in flag football. Fire that official!
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I tend to side with officials, but that was ridiculous.
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Even the network announcers expressed a negative opinion. It was a "bush" league call. They showed three other hits that could have been far more dangerous. Let's see if the league comments and holds that "official" accountable.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


Tom Brady gets a call just because he's Tom Brady

roughing the passer_____________? _____ no way

.
link to original post

My son sent me the same video of the tackle. I think that is a penalty in flag football. Fire that official!
link to original post

I tend to side with officials, but that was ridiculous.
link to original post

Even the network announcers expressed a negative opinion. It was a "bush" league call. They showed three other hits that could have been far more dangerous. Let's see if the league comments and holds that "official" accountable.

tuttigym
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It was a pretty weak looking tackle and call to me.
If that was worth a penalty, then there was at least a similar one that should have been awarded to the Ravens against the Bengals.

Note: I only watched the Bengals game yesterday (there were probably similar situations in other games, too).

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

(snip)
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(snip)
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I tend to side with officials, but that was ridiculous.
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I agree.

Also, no one wants "bad calls ", but they do happen and are part of the game (" the officials are only human", "blah blah blah", etc are just some of the excuses).
It was the only game I watched yesterday, but there were a few missed calls*** in the Bengals game.

***: IMO, the "minor to moderate" missed / bad calls generally "even out" over the game (or if not that, then the season).

But the "Brady game one" was a majorly bad call .

Saw a great talking head forum discussing the idiotic roughing call on Brady. Coaches look at calls like this and try and figure out a way to coach their players not to be called for that penalty. They’ve done it for ‘crown of the helmet’ hits. For ‘putting your entire body weight’ on the QB. For avoiding the ‘hitting the sliding QB’ hits.
The ex players all agreed there is no way to coach a player to NOT tackle exactly as Brady was tackled. If the NFL does not at least admit publicly it was a terrible call…. (Nothing will happen…)

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I was surprised to see that the Commanders were favored over the Bears at home - the Commanders really suck
I didn't think any team could be worse than them
but they beat the Bears and their ugly a** orange uniforms
the Bears must really suck too - big time


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Quote: lilredrooster

______________


I was surprised to see that the Commanders were favored over the Bears at home - the Commanders really suck
I didn't think any team could be worse than them
but they beat the Bears and their ugly a** orange uniforms
the Bears must really suck too - big time


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I don't think any of the teams will be horrible this year. I would not be surprised if every team had at least 4 wins.

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


I was surprised to see that the Commanders were favored over the Bears at home - the Commanders really suck
I didn't think any team could be worse than them
but they beat the Bears and their ugly a** orange uniforms
the Bears must really suck too - big time


.
link to original post

ESPN has a recent and very detailed article on the Commanders (the controversy surrounding the owner). It is a very lengthy article but a fascinating one if anyone cares to look it up and is into investigative sports reporting.

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


I was surprised to see that the Commanders were favored over the Bears at home - the Commanders really suck
I didn't think any team could be worse than them
but they beat the Bears and their ugly a** orange uniforms
the Bears must really suck too - big time


.
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I don't think any of the teams will be horrible this year. I would not be surprised if every team had at least 4 wins.
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Pre season I would have bet big $$$ against you. My (usually wrong) prediction would have had the Jets and Texans below 4. I’m betting another Starbucks thingie against you though. I think the bet is +EV for you.

We also must disagree on what a horrible team looks like. I’d say both Bears and Commanders qualify.

Quote: SOOPOO

We also must disagree on what a horrible team looks like. I’d say both Bears and Commanders qualify.

To me the recent "horrible" teams were the Browns and Jaguars who we wondered if they would win a game. Seeing as through 5 games everybody has won at least one game I don't think I would classify any of them as horrible.

Of the Texans three losses the biggest one was by 10 points which to me doesn't say "horrible".

I’m watching Yankees Guardians game now. Home plate umpire is nothing short of abysmal. At least a half dozen bad calls already. One in particular…. Stanton clear walk on 3-1 pitch somehow called a strike. But he homers on next pitch!

It seems like ump is calling strikes on any pitch within 3 inches of the strike zone. There are prop bets on pitcher strike outs…
If the ump is driving a Lamborghini next week I’d be suspicious….

_____________


James Brown, Dematha High, Hyattsville, MD star - # 14 - now host of the NFL today on CBS sports






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Tennessee 52, Alabama 49 in a tremendous roller-coaster of a game.

How high will Tennessee (6-0) be ranked in the polls tomorrow?

Quote: gordonm888

Tennessee 52, Alabama 49 in a tremendous roller-coaster of a game.

How high will Tennessee (6-0) be ranked in the polls tomorrow?
link to original post

My guess is Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gordonm888

Tennessee 52, Alabama 49 in a tremendous roller-coaster of a game.

How high will Tennessee (6-0) be ranked in the polls tomorrow?
link to original post

My guess is Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson.
link to original post

My guess is Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Tennessee, Michigan.

tuttigym