General Sports Talk
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69 members have voted
Quote: AZDuffmanWord is some books made 6 figures off it!
Yes, most of the money was on the Browns -3.5 to -4.
Quote: DRichYes, most of the money was on the Browns -3.5 to -4.
Hopefully he does not get the same replies as Leon Lett did in the SuperBowl. People actually mailed in their losing squares. Some though mailed in hot dogs but he did not open the mail until months later. Bleah.
Quote: AZDuffmanHopefully he does not get the same replies as Leon Lett did in the SuperBowl. People actually mailed in their losing squares. Some though mailed in hot dogs but he did not open the mail until months later. Bleah.
In this case it wasn't a mistake and was absolutely the correct decision.
ESPN was saying that he was told in the huddle not to score, just like Gurley was. Except Chubb actually listened. Worked out well for me as my fantasy opponent last week had him!Quote: DRichIn this case it wasn't a mistake and was absolutely the correct decision.
Just imagine if his goof affected the line bets. He would have gotten much worse than hot dogs sent to him!Quote: AZDuffmanHopefully he does not get the same replies as Leon Lett did in the SuperBowl. People actually mailed in their losing squares. Some though mailed in hot dogs but he did not open the mail until months later. Bleah.
Having multiple Pro Bowls and Superbowl victories, Lett is mainly remembered for two (really bad) plays: This one of getting stripped while showboating in the Superbowl, and the Thanksgiving game against the Dolphins where he attempted to recover a blocked FG (the game would have been over if nobody touches it), but muffed it, allowing the Dolphins to recover and kick the winning FG.
I actually remember the Dolphins game more than the Superbowl, as I grew up a Dolphins fan.
Quote: JoemanESPN was saying that he was told in the huddle not to score, just like Gurley was. Except Chubb actually listened. Worked out well for me as my fantasy opponent last week had him!
Just imagine if his goof affected the line bets. He would have gotten much worse than hot dogs sent to him!
Having multiple Pro Bowls and Superbowl victories, Lett is mainly remembered for two (really bad) plays: This one of getting stripped while showboating in the Superbowl, and the Thanksgiving game against the Dolphins where he attempted to recover a blocked FG (the game would have been over if nobody touches it), but muffed it, allowing the Dolphins to recover and kick the winning FG.
I actually remember the Dolphins game more than the Superbowl, as I grew up a Dolphins fan.
It DID affect the line. I gave a number here earlier.
I remember the Thanksgiving goof mainly because we had people visiting and when the highlights came one guy said, "WATCH THIS. THE STUPIDEST PLAY YOU WILL SEE ALL YEAR!"
Quote: AZDuffmanIt DID affect the line. I gave a number here earlier.
I remember the Thanksgiving goof mainly because we had people visiting and when the highlights came one guy said, "WATCH THIS. THE STUPIDEST PLAY YOU WILL SEE ALL YEAR!"
The Lett TD flub affected the line??
Quote: unJonThe Lett TD flub affected the line??
No, Chubb. Sorry if I got confused.
There's another element to this that gets overlooked. When you score like that, you add half a dozen or more plays to the game where players can get hurt, and those plays did not have to happen.
The situation was not the same, but I remember the Buddy Ryan flipout on Gilbride when, in a low-scoring game, Gilbride had his offense attempt to score with 20 seconds left and no timeouts from their own 20. They turned the ball over, and then a Ryan-coached player was hurt when the opponent threw into the endzone. Ryan went ballistic on Gilbride and took a whack at him, and I didn't blame him.
Quote: redietzIf I remember correctly, Penn State and the Falcons managed to blow their games similar ways the same week, by not taking a knee at the one. The PSU head coach is a gameday idiot, pretty much.
My understanding is that James Franklin did tell his team to fall down and not score.
Quote: redietzIf I remember correctly, Penn State and the Falcons managed to blow their games similar ways the same week, by not taking a knee at the one. The PSU head coach is a gameday idiot, pretty much.
My understanding is that James Franklin did tell his team to fall down and not score.
Look, if I tell a player in a hoops game to take Shot A at crunch time, and he takes Shot B, then it's my fault as a coach for having him in the game and having he be the player to take the last shot. If your players don't listen to you, that's on you.
Can you imagine Nick Saban's reaction if a player didn't do as instructed in that scenario?
Quote: redietzThen perhaps he should have used sign language or had a player in the game who understands English.
Look, if I tell a player in a hoops game to take Shot A at crunch time, and he takes Shot B, then it's my fault as a coach for having him in the game and having he be the player to take the last shot. If your players don't listen to you, that's on you.
Can you imagine Nick Saban's reaction if a player didn't do as instructed in that scenario?
Reminds me of the story with Sun Tzu and the emperor’s harem.
Quote: redietzThen perhaps he should have used sign language or had a player in the game who understands English.
You might be going too far with that one. We can't expect college students to understand english. At least not student athletes.
So KC is 6.5 favorites at the moment. There was already a revenge factor (which most sports bettors dismiss). Does anyone think it more likely that Reid runs up the score, if given the chance?
Quote: kewljAs we approach the Raiders / Chiefs rematch this week (Sunday night game), a controversy has emerged. Apparently after the Raiders handed the Chiefs their only defeat last month in Kansas City, Gruden had the team buses circle the stadium in a "victory lap" before leaving. This seems kind of silly to me. It seems like a kind of manufactured bulletin board material, but apparently this stunt bothered Andy Reid, as he has mentioned it several times in the past 2 days now.
So KC is 6.5 favorites at the moment. There was already a revenge factor (which most sports bettors dismiss). Does anyone think it more likely that Reid runs up the score, if given the chance?
I think t the bigger factor is the Covid tests. I would make KC about 9.
“Monday afternoon on WFAN, a week after the Craig Carton-Evan Roberts union had been inaugurated, the discussion, perhaps inevitably, turned to gambling. And a good, apparently honest conversation ensued about a world suddenly turned upside down.
Carton correctly reasoned that there is no famous successful tout because there has never been one and never will be. Their picks would move betting lines; that doesn’t happen. Those who advertise differently are, simply put, boiler room confidence men, thieves out to procure the credit card numbers of the gullible or desperate.
Roberts, slightly reluctantly, nevertheless agreed: Gambling operations, even legal, are not out to make money for anyone other than themselves.”
We were therefore left to glean that the “make it rain” and “get-rich-quick” commercial promises, mostly aimed at young adults, target the vulnerable.
Quote: TDVegas
Carton correctly reasoned that there is no famous successful tout because there has never been one and never will be. Their picks would move betting lines; that doesn’t happen. Those who advertise differently are, simply put, boiler room confidence men, thieves out to procure the credit card numbers of the gullible or desperate.
What do you mean by famous? In the sports betting community Doc was pretty famous and respected for 10 or more years. And yes, his picks definitely moved lines.
Quote: DRichWhat do you mean by famous? In the sports betting community Doc was pretty famous and respected for 10 or more years. And yes, his picks definitely moved lines.
I think what he means is if they are selling picks...they are scammers.
Quote: TDVegasI think what he means is if they are selling picks...they are scammers.
Who cares what that POS says? People who listen to convicted con men generally are not better off for their efforts. I'm still surprised WFAN gave this jerk a second chance.
Quote: TDVegasI think what he means is if they are selling picks...they are scammers.
Doc was selling picks.
20!!!! Players out for Minnesota tonight, not sure whom but assume their O-Line decimated their O-Like coach tests positive for Covid.
Quote: DRichDoc was selling picks.
I don’t trust anyone named “Doc”.
My guess is he runs hot...runs cold, collects his nice fees but never consistently beats the 52.4% enough to make money for his....dupes, er, uh, clients. Any reviews are littered with people saying the record is misrepresented and outright wrong at times. I’m sure he has his followers.
Quote: mcallister3200The thing is, if you’re paying for the picks, you have to hit for higher than that percentage and bet exorbitant amounts for it to actually be +EV, so even in the rare instance they’re a winning bettor themselves it’s rarely ever probably not going to be a positive value to pay for their picks. Along with the issue of actually getting the money down while the line is still available if they’re good.
Yep. Hitting 52.4% consistently is no small feat...and that’s just breaking even without paying a tout.
If he was that good, after a decade plus of doing it....his picks would move the line like no other because there would be a massive amount of bettors and $$ put on those picks. Probably almost impossible to get the line he wants for his “customers”, regardless.
If you are good, you need to sell....nothing. Selling covers your own bad picks and is extra gravy for your good picks.
Nice racket.
If I pick 100 games and normally hit at about 40%, am I not better off paying someone who will pick 50% of them. You would say I am losing money because I'm not breaking even, while I would say at the end of the day I have more money in my pocket than had I picked them myself.
Quote: billryanWhat you seem to be missing is a tout doesn't have to hit 52.?% of his hits to make you money. He simply has to do better than you'd have done on your own.
If I pick 100 games and normally hit at about 40%, am I not better off paying someone who will pick 50% of them. You would say I am losing money because I'm not breaking even, while I would say at the end of the day I have more money in my pocket than had I picked them myself.
You can have a bad year, you can have a bad stretch....I would question you stating you are hitting 40% consistently as I would question someone saying they are hitting 60% consistently.
I’ve seen paid touts hitting 45% for a full NFL season of picks.
A professional bettor, IMO, has absolutely no good reason to sell his picks. Lots of bad reasons to do so...for the buyer. The good reason for the seller to do it is that he’s not a professional sports picker (any good) and it generates income.
Quote: billryanI don't bet sports, but used to have many friends who did and for some of them winning 40% of their action would have been an improvement.
Come on Bill, puffery is one thing but this is ridiculous, it just doesn’t add up. You could have retired even earlier a very rich man just by betting the other side if it were true.
Fewer coed dorm parties.Quote: billryanEighteen Division One football games got canceled this weekend. Does anyone know what the NFL is doing that the NCAA isn't?
Quote: billryanI don't bet sports, but used to have many friends who did and for some of them winning 40% of their action would have been an improvement. In any event, if you pay somebody for picks and he does a better job than you would do, it's money well spent.
If they have established some consistency of 40%....they don’t need to pay anyone. They are gold. Whatever picks they make, tear them up and bet the opposite. 60% win....and they pay nobody for that info.
You don’t have to pick winners consistently. You can pick losers consistently and make boat loads of money. Considering most of these bettors don’t flip a coin...let them do their “due diligence” in why they pick certain games. After they are done with the picks...bet the opposite. Winner winner lobster dinner.
There is a forest thru the trees. They just have to look.
Quote: billryanEighteen Division One football games got canceled this weekend. Does anyone know what the NFL is doing that the NCAA isn't?
The NFL is just powering through. They aren't cancelling or moving games because of covid outbreaks like they were earlier. They have the expanded rosters with the practice squad players and have more or less adopted a "next man up" strategy.
Amazing how bad Wentz has been this year. While Prescott being out and Dalton missing time has hurt Dallas it’s really been moreso their defense, Cowboys have given up the most points in the entire NFL. “The Football Team” leading the division in point differential, maybe Alex Smith can lead them to the playoffs in his comeback season.
Quote: JoemanAnd just what were the Cowboys and Redskins Washingtonians thinking yesterday? How dare they try to win against out-of-division opponents? They have ruined my dream of a 4-win division champion!
HAIL TO FOOTBALL TEAM, HAIL VICTORY,
BRAVES, er, PLAYERS ON THE WARPATH,
FIGHT FOR OLD DIXIE. er, wherever.
Quote: billryanWith six games to go, all the teams in the NFC East are within a half-game of each other. This has to be a pretty rare situation. It is a sprint to the finish. That none of them can be a wild card makes it even more interesting. Big Blue will be playing meaningful football in December. The real 2020 season starts now.
Sprint to the finish? More like 4 drunks trying to find the door with their shoelaces tied together.
Quote: billryanThat none of them can be a wild card makes it even more interesting.
Are you sure about that? Didn't they add an extra wildcard team this year? I would think one could still win six games and another 5 games and that might be good enough for a wildcard.
Quote: DRichAre you sure about that? Didn't they add an extra wildcard team this year? I would think one could still win six games and another 5 games and that might be good enough for a wildcard.
They did. But no one in NFC East making a wildcard.
Quote: DRichAre you sure about that? Didn't they add an extra wildcard team this year? I would think one could still win six games and another 5 games and that might be good enough for a wildcard.
There are too many NFC teams above .500 for a 6-10 NFC East team to sneak in as a wildcard. Not impossible.... but not worth the single thought.....
Quote: SOOPOOThere are too many NFC teams above .500 for a 6-10 NFC East team to sneak in as a wildcard. Not impossible.... but not worth the single thought.....
I guess that I am just a stickler when someone says it is impossible and I don't think it is impossible.
In theory you could still have a 9-6-1 team win the division and a 8-8 make a wildcard.
So far I booked an open parlay with Detroit at +3 -120 because I happened to see it hit that after being at +2.5 and I thought it was not going to stay at 3. So far that’s right as it’s back to +2.5. I don’t think Detroit is as bad as last week indicated and I do think there is something about their Thanksgiving games where they tend to over perform.
Haven’t put in anything else yet. Talking myself into adding Washington if the line gets to +3.5. And the under in the Lions game if it goes back up to 52 or beyond.
I’m a Steeler fan so inclined to add a leg here but -4.5 against the Ravens seems like folly.
Anyway, that’s as far as I’ve gotten.
Quote: unJon
I’m a Steeler fan so inclined to add a leg here but -4.5 against the Ravens seems like folly.
Anyway, that’s as far as I’ve gotten.
Hard to figure that one. Sometimes they play down to their opponent other times they fire on all cylinders.
They are in some circles regarded as the weakest 10-0 team in NFL history.
OTOH, Baltimore is skidding.
Quote: AZDuffmanHard to figure that one. Sometimes they play down to their opponent other times they fire on all cylinders.
They are in some circles regarded as the weakest 10-0 team in NFL history.
OTOH, Baltimore is skidding.
I would agree that they are the least dominant 10-0 team that I have seen. As you mentioned they regularly play down to competition.
I didn't realize it was up to 4.5 so I may consider the Ravens.
Quote: mcallister3200I think these things are more or less baked into the line nowadays but it’s a very important game for a fairly talented team in Balt and not as meaningful at this point for Pitt beyond homefield race with KC so you would think it should be close most times.
If you are familar with that rivalry they are usually close. I believe at one time a few years ago the point spread wasn't more than three either way for like ten games.
