2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

I will bet against SA horse.

Time for the announcement nobody is waiting for: the D.L.D. - Dead Last Derby pick. My officially pointless utterly useless prediction is that this year it will be #3 - Promises Fulfilled managing to accomplish the difficult task of finishing 20th of twenty. With my apologies & condolences to Dale Romans. But not to his hoss. Who by the way, happens to be a son of Shackleford, who sold at auction for the relatively bargain basement price of $37,000. And now that this precocious one-dimensional speedball has managed to earn over $337,000 in purses, he should retire within the next thirty minutes while his value only has one direction to go from here, IMO.

Audible across the board...

My bet for the Derby is 14,5-14,5-4,6,16,18,19 for tri. 14-5 ex box. $15 WPS for 14. $2WPS for 5. Wish me luck. All the horses are M. Casse, T Fletcher and C Brown. NO Baffet.

6 favorites in a row. That is crazy.

I will once again eat crow and tip my hat to Baffert.

Can anyone beat this horse? His race was impressive after watching the other mud dirt races fall apart up front.

Nobody bothered to challenge him (although, maybe they were trying to and couldn't)

Should have put all the money on Audible to show.

Quote: speedycrap

Should have put all the money on Audible to show.

Should've bought Apple at their IPO

Quote: DrawingDead

Time for the announcement nobody is waiting for: the D.L.D. - Dead Last Derby pick. My officially pointless utterly useless prediction is that this year it will be #3 - Promises Fulfilled managing to accomplish the difficult task of finishing 20th of twenty. With my apologies & condolences to Dale Romans. But not to his hoss. Who by the way, happens to be a son of Shackleford, who sold at auction for the relatively bargain basement price of $37,000. And now that this precocious one-dimensional speedball has managed to earn over $337,000 in purses, he should retire within the next thirty minutes while his value only has one direction to go from here, IMO.

Mendelssohn. He got slammed at the start. What a terrible ride after that by Moore. If I was the owner/trainer, I would be pissed (or "cross" in the Isles) to see my 3 million dollar horse ridden hard like that for over a half mile. Disappointing to see that unfold.

Quote: RS

I just wanna bet against Mendelson, How I do that?

Great call. You "win" the thread. How did to you come up with this idea?

Quote: aceofspades

Should've bought Apple at their IPO

Well since it is Audible, Amazon stock would have been more appropriate. :) :)

Quote: aceofspades

Should've bought Apple at their IPO

I like this guy...... hahahaaaa

I had a great Derby. Pool 1 field - WIN. Pool 2 field - WIN. Scat Daddy sire - WIN. My trifecta hit, but didn't even cover the cost of the bet.

How great is Justify? I think he wins the triple crown.

Quote: speedycrap

Should have put all the money on Audible to show.

And I thought Audible got there to Place, but evidently not...oh well, I think I paid for the ticket...have to check final payouts.

Can anyone link me to results? Like pool information.

Equibase straight up skipped it and I'm not making a damn Brisnet account.

for Preakness bettors....i thought justify looked exhausted in the aftermath.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/05/2018&cy=USA&rn=12

Quote: ontariodealer

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/05/2018&cy=USA&rn=12

Just as I ask they post... lol thanks.

Most pools were up 5-10%, good to see.

They did take an especially long time to post the chart, at both DRF & Equibase. While waiting for that to show up: "Oh, waiter? There's been a mistake; this is not the race I ordered! Phooey. I asked for a nostalgic return to a platoon sized cavalry charge for the first eight panels, to go. With extra jalapeno sauce."

Promises Fulfilled made a piss poor hash of his job of losing. Yeah he backed up to be a totally non-competitive loser by finishing in 15th place. But how much harder would it have been to do a real stop and quit to validate my super loser tag, to lose by just another 30 lengths or so to beat out Mendelssohn who was busy finishing in 20th by about 60 lengths? And he didn't even do his other little side job of being a serious pace pest for Justify, instead of a handy target.

The place and show payouts on Mediocre Magic were absurdly juicy enough that I did stumble into turning a profit on my token little wagers spread on him & Vino. But that wasn't the point of me messing around on this one.

I do think the surface was important to how it was run, in terms of the race shape. Not that I'd claim to predict any particular difference in the final outcome, but sealing and re-sealing the track and working it down hard to do an extra vigorous squeegee job on top of it resulted in one of those quasi-concrete main-track freeways, with especially firm footing near the rail. I don't think race 12 was quite the same surface as earlier dirt events, which has happened like this before on Derby day at Churchill. If that's right, it makes any daily track variant adjustments based on comparison to those other races into misleading trash. I'm not saying that as any commentary on the relative talent implied in the order of finish of the Derby. But my point is that I will consider any figures coming out of this to be flaky and completely unreliable for any predictive value for everyone in that field, whether they are flaky high or low or sideways. And I particularly don't want to take the fractional splits at all seriously or respect any attempt at pace analysis based on them, and most especially not for those who were both tactically smart to recognize and able to efficiently get to and effectively use the great advantage of seizing the innermost paths nearest the rail.

But what's really ringing my chimes is the deepening of the riddle of what in the freakin' mudder-fork was up with My Boy Jack? With the seemingly legit 30/1 shot eventually taking over four-million macaroons on the nose to close at 6.7 odds to a dollar as the shocking 2nd favorite on the tote board in this deep field, and then running a remarkably powerful race with very hard luck x3, getting mugged twice and forced to finally re-re-rally via the outer solar system route producing an astounding very fast closing fifth place finish. I'm not in the habit of being especially disconcerted about money coming in on a peculiar unexpected buzz horse; in my experience that happens in this event, often because a name turns out to be catchy or something like a cutesy human interest story becomes a magnet for casual money. Nor am I necessarily vexed by surprise performances in this almost unique event.

But when that entry attracting the really weird wager flow that was presumably a public fad feeding on itself, is then paired with an equally inexplicable striking performance boost with no explanation that's apparent, that head scratching combination starts looking a little spooky to me. I do expect to see some of those curious eyebrow raising oddities popping up during the third race at Delta Downs on a Thursday night in a scruffy field of aging knock kneed geldings from marginal local bayou trainers in a five thousand dollar maiden claiming race with all of about thirty-five hundred total liquidity in the win pool. But this was not a good ol' boy race at Delta Downs. So I am at least highly curious and borderline creeped-out by the latest mystery of the Desormeaux family's shenanigans in their most recent amazing escapade with a twenty-thousand dollar yearling purchase.

Maybe next year my Derby handicapping approach might be to get one of the Desormeaux brothers stinking drunk in a back booth of a dive bar one night, well before the fixed odds future pools come and go.

Harrumph. Otherwise, hope a good time was had by all.

I took a look at the chart.
the last quarter was very slow 26.85 (the first quarter was 22.24)
I saw Justify shorten his stride in the stretch but that didn't help his rivals
so often, with a blistering pace like that late runners will come charging at the leader especially when he slows down that much
that didn't happen
was it because they were exhausted from getting hit in the face and elsewhere by slop?
or because they don't have the ability and can't handle Justify

I don't really know the answer

but my best guess is they can't handle him

Quote: lilredrooster

-snip-
but my best guess is they can't handle him

This is how I feel about him now. And if he runs in the Preakness he will be a big favorite.

Being the horse gambler I am, I went looking for any "fresh" runners (à la Cloud Computing last year) that did not participate in the Derby. I did not come up with much. Quip would be one. Maybe a Federico Tesio (@ Laurel) runner could be considered in the Preakness. King Diamond won, but Holland Park made an eye catching move into a slow pace from a poor outside post while looking green early.
https://www.facebook.com/WatchXBTV/videos/1808069372833414/
The grey has a nice pedigree, but I have no idea where he will end up next.
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9911696&registry=T&rbt=TB

Still plenty of time to see how the field shapes up.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/993132338543562752

Data below on past decade of Kentucky Derby pace, from result chart archive at Equibase.com
Column A: First quarter fractional split, time first pole to second
Column B: Elapsed time at three-quarter pole entering backstretch
Column C: Year of race, or label of operation on 11 yr. data set

Col A..Col B....Col C

23.77 1:11.13 Mean (Avg)

23.74 1:11.12 Median

23.53 1:11.01 2018 *

23.83 1:11.12 2017 *

23.14 1:10.40 2016

24.10 1:11.29 2015

24.33 1:11.80 2014

22.76 1:09.80 2013 *

23.07 1:09.80 2012

25.39 1:13.40 2011

23.33 1:10.58 2010 *

24.25 1:12.09 2009

23.74 1:11.14 2008

NOTE: Asterisk [*] denotes "sealed" wet track condition.

EDIT: Deleted my "editorial" judgment on what it means, and corrected typo, so it just is what it is, and doesn't care what any Tom, Dead, or Harry chooses to think about what it is.

The owners of JUSTIFY are entering another horse form their barn, QUIP, in the Preakness -- I never understood why an owner would choose to run a fresh horse from their barn against their current Derby winner (unless the fresh horse is a rabbit) -- seems counterintuitive to place another obstacle in the path of your Derby winner

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/227439/quip-confirmed-for-preakness-run

PS--JUSTIFY morning line is 1:2

Quote: aceofspades

The owners of JUSTIFY are entering another horse form their barn, QUIP, in the Preakness -- I never understood why an owner would choose to run a fresh horse from their barn against their current Derby winner (unless the fresh horse is a rabbit) -- seems counterintuitive to place another obstacle in the path of your Derby winner

PS--JUSTIFY morning line is 1:2

The current winner won't be winner for the hole time. The horse won't be young and powerful forever. Owner chooses fresh horses time to time just to find new power, new winner. That's all the case. Oh, and maybe that is some kind of strategy to receive more winnings in total. Just my thoughts.

It is true, sloppy track Kentucky Derby horses don't do well in the Preakness. Always Dreaming has yet to win a race for example. At this point, however, I'd not bet against Justify.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

It is true, sloppy track Kentucky Derby horses don't do well in the Preakness. Always Dreaming has yet to win a race for example. At this point, however, I'd not bet against Justify.

for anybody thinking of betting against him and getting a big price there is hope

those who might have the stuff to try and run him down (if the weather is good) won't get worn down by getting hit by slop

I think this is what you meant by rabbit, so if redundant sorry, but I would.think the horse gets experience, minor value, while burning up the track pace.early to shape the race for Justify. The jockey will let the horse run full out and tire the others if that suits Justify.

Or not. IDK but seems logical.

BBB - yup - that is exactly what a 'rabbit' is in racing

Quote: ahiromu

That's a good analogy. Specifically, first generation rockets like the V2. You were only "pretty sure" about where they were going.

Can you believe it? Theirs a quarter horse stakes event scheduled for Ruidoso Downs on May 25 with a:

$ 𝐎𝐍𝐄 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐃𝐎𝐋𝐋𝐀𝐑 𝐏𝐔𝐑𝐒𝐄


they must either go into the hole and get paid back by some casino arrangement or it must be an incredibly popular event to support a purse like that

Quote: lilredrooster

Can you believe it? Theirs a quarter horse stakes event scheduled for Ruidoso Downs on May 25 with a:

$ 𝐎𝐍𝐄 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐃𝐎𝐋𝐋𝐀𝐑 𝐏𝐔𝐑𝐒𝐄


they must either go into the hole and get paid back by some casino arrangement or it must be an incredibly popular event to support a purse like that

That's exciting. Are you sure it isn't June 9-10? I see 750k on 6/9 and 1000k on 6/10.

https://www.raceruidoso.com/2592-2/

Quote: lilredrooster

Can you believe it? Theirs a quarter horse stakes event scheduled for Ruidoso Downs on May 25 with a:

$ 𝐎𝐍𝐄 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐃𝐎𝐋𝐋𝐀𝐑 𝐏𝐔𝐑𝐒𝐄


they must either go into the hole and get paid back by some casino arrangement or it must be an incredibly popular event to support a purse like that

No I can't believe it, because you've got some things confused a bit. There is no $1M race at Ruidoso on May 25th, but it is opening day, and throughout that weekend they will have races that are trials for two of their three events that do have purses of over $1M when they are actually run later in the meet. Hard to tell which of them you were really thinking of, but the All-American Futurity first had a one-million dollar purse thirty-nine years ago in 1978, and it is now three-million.

But if that surprises you for some reason, then I guess you will be more surprised by some races on the stakes schedule at Los Alamitos including the Ed Burke Futurity for over $1M on June 24, the Golden State Million Dollar Futurity on November 4, the Los Alamitos Super Derby for over $900k on November 11, and the Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity on December 16, among others.

Quote: ahiromu

Are you sure

IDK maybe it's a mistake but it's on this quarter horse stakes calendar.


https://www.speedhorse.com/stakes-calendar/

There is no mistake. That's not what it says.

Quote: lilredrooster

IDK maybe it's a mistake but it's on this quarter horse stakes calendar.


https://www.speedhorse.com/stakes-calendar/

And it says:

Quote:

RUI, Ruidoso Futurity-G1, Trials Day 1

It is day 1 of the two days of trials for the Ruidoso Futurity. Which is on June 10th.

It's not the first time I've been wrong about something.

I've bet on quarter horses but I haven't followed it closely and I did not know that there were some events with purses that large.

Thanks for the info.

I do plan to try to stay on top of the high dollar schedule and bet on some of those races.

In my opinion Los Alamitos & Ruidoso (in that order) are the two most classy venues definitely at the top of the QH game, significantly above others. Los Al is year round and has quite a few significant (six-figure+) purses throughout the year, while Ruidoso is of course a seasonal meet running for a little over three months. GL.

Quote: lilredrooster

...<SNIP>...I do plan to try to stay on top of the high dollar schedule and bet on some of those races.

Justify possibly lame?

Quote: DrawingDead

In my opinion Los Alamitos & Ruidoso (in that order) are the two most classy venues definitely at the top of the QH game, significantly above others. Los Al is year round and has quite a few significant (six-figure+) purses throughout the year, while Ruidoso is of course a seasonal meet running for a little over three months. GL.

Los Al is a lot of fun. The Quarters on TVG is highly recommended. I like how they have trials nights, then the finals 2-3 weeks later.

Preakness field, morning line odds set:

Justify (2-5)
Good Magic (7-2)
Quip (16-1)
Diamond King (16-1)
Sporting Chance (22-1)
Bravazo (20-1)
Tenfold (25-1)
Lone Sailor (25-1)



2/5 - not a lot of fun in those odds

Quote: lilredrooster

Preakness field, morning line odds set:

Justify (2-5)
Good Magic (7-2)
Quip (16-1)
Diamond King (16-1)
Sporting Chance (22-1)
Bravazo (20-1)
Tenfold (25-1)
Lone Sailor (25-1)



2/5 - not a lot of fun in those odds

If you've got the 5, you don't need the 2

I think Good Magic is a very good show bet cause Justify MIGHT be lame.

Quote: speedycrap

I think Good Magic is a very good show bet cause Justify MIGHT be lame.

He's not lame.

But yes, if there's bridge jumpers, might as well bet Good Magic to show. He's clearly 2nd best here.

For such an important and talent filled race, any flaw will be fatal. Chances are the jockey wont push the horse if there is no chance to win. Show to the owner means nothing.

Anyone kind enough to post pp for Preakness please? Thanks.

Quote: FinsRule

He's not lame.

But yes, if there's bridge jumpers, might as well bet Good Magic to show. He's clearly 2nd best here.

2:10 to show, a horse who escaped the rodeo of a 20 horse field ? Even bridge jumpers are not that dumb

Quote: edwardjsmith

Even bridge jumpers are not that dumb

Don't kid yourself. They're 𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐘 dumb.

For those who see Justify favoring his left left hind leg: https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/justify-minor-skin-irritation-on-left-hind-pastern-wont-interfere-with-training-schedule/

tl;dr It's a common condition with a known treatment that got irritated during the Derby. He won the Derby with it being a known issue.

Quote: speedycrap

Anyone kind enough to post pp for Preakness please? Thanks.

Here you go:

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Preakness18.pdf

Thanks. I think Good Magic is a good show bet. I like horse with this style. Just off the pace 2-3 lengths.

steady rain forecast for Baltimore for today, Friday and Saturday.

Quote: speedycrap

Thanks. I think Good Magic is a good show bet. I like horse with this style. Just off the pace 2-3 lengths.

Show on the second choice in an 8 horse field? What exactly would you be expecting to win there.....?