2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

Horsing around #1 is very long on the page since I don't want to try to mess with translating the original formatting of my spreadsheets to this site. Ignore, complete with some of my cryptic notations that I'm not bothering to explain, or make of it whatever you will. Then the output of horsing around #2 (theoretical projected fast & far rating) is the "P*S" line figure:

To Par= 1:49-2 <s>
ADJ= 01:49.50 <s>
P*S 79
AWD 6.8
<BSF> 86
EL CAMINO REAL
Med= 01:50.54 F3 00:00.50
Avg= 01:50.68 F3 00:00.64
2018 01:50.04 F3 Paved
2017 01:51.34
2016 01:50.64
2015 01:49.92
2014 01:51.23
2013 01:51.45
2012 01:50.46
2011 01:50.45
2010 01:51.26
2009 01:50.54
2008 01:50.20

To Par= 1:49-4 <s>
ADJ= 01:49.82 <s>
P*S 81
AWD 7.0
<BSF> 83
JEFF RUBY STKS
Med= 01:50.96 F0 00:00.09
Avg= 01:51.05 F1 00:00.18
2018 01:50.87 F1 Blended Citizen
2017 01:50.96
2016 01:51.12
2015 01:50.26
2014 01:52.26
2013 01:51.98
2012 01:51.33
2011 01:52.32 Animal Kingdom
2010 01:50.59
2009 01:49.63
2008 01:50.20

To Par= 1:50-0
ADJ= 01:50.00
P*S 83
AWD 6.6
BSF 95
LOUISIANA DBY
Med= 01:50.28 E0 00:00.00
Avg= 01:50.36 F0 00:00.08
2018 01:50.28 F0 Noble Indy
2017 01:49.77
2016 01:51.06 Gun Runner
2015 01:50.67
2014 01:50.77
2013 01:50.28 Revolutionary, Palace Malice
2012 01:50.13
2011 01:49.92 Nehro, Mucho Macho Man
2010 01:50.32
[distance change]

To Par= 1:50-4
ADJ= 01:50.92
P*S 86
AWD 7.1
BSF 85
SUNLAND DERBY
Med= 01:48.28 S5 00:00.92
Avg= 01:48.51 S3 00:00.69
2018 01:49.20 S4 Runaway Ghost
2017 01:48.10
2015 01:47.39
2014 01:47.88
2013 01:47.54
2012 01:48.59
2011 01:50.91
2010 01:48.46
[multiple conditions changed]

To Par= N/A - dist
ADJ= N/A - dist
P*S 104
AWD 7.0
BSF 106
UAE DERBY
Med= 01:50.19 F0 01:50.19
Avg= 01:50.14 S0 01:50.14
2018 00:00.00 FS Mendelssohn
[surface change]

To Par= 1:49-2
ADJ= 01:49.52
P*S 116
AWD 7.7
BSF 98
WOOD MEMORIAL
Med= 01:50.27 F2 00:00.48
Avg= 01:50.56 F4 00:00.77
2018 01:49.79 F3 Vino Rosso
2017 01:50.91
2016 01:52.92
2015 01:50.31 Frosted
2014 01:49.31 Wicked Strong
2013 01:50.27 Verrazano, NrmndyInvsn, Vyjack
2012 01:50.96
2011 01:49.93 Uncle Mo
2010 01:49.97 Eskendereya
2009 01:49.49
2008 01:52.35

To Par= 1:50-0
ADJ= 01:50.00
P*S 107
AWD 7.5
BSF 95
BLUE GRASS
Med= 01:50.19 E0 00:00.01
Avg= 01:50.14 E0 00:00.05
2018 01:50.18 E0 Good Magic
2017 01:50.39
2016 01:50.20
2015 01:49.77 Ocho Ocho Ocho
[surface change]

To Par= 1:50-0
ADJ= 01:50.00
P*S 111
AWD 7.2
BSF 107
SANTA ANITA DBY
Med= 01:49.46 S1 00:00.26
Avg= 01:49.60 S1 00:00.12
2018 01:49.72 S0 Justify
2017 01:51.16
2016 01:49.66 Exaggerator
[surface change]

To Par= 1:50-2
ADJ= 01:50.49
P*S 99
AWD 7.1
BSF 98
ARKANSAS DBY
Med= 01:49.37 S2 00:00.49
Avg= 01:49.56 S1 00:00.30
2018 01:49.86 S2 Magnum Moon
2017 01:48.93
2016 01:50.14
2015 01:48.52 American Pharoah
2014 01:49.68 Danza
2013 01:51.94
2012 01:48.71 Bodemeister
2011 01:49.34
2010 01:49.37
2009 01:49.01
2008 01:49.63

The Racing Onion
@RacingOnion
American Horse Racing's Worst News Source
https://twitter.com/racingonion?lang=en

Quote: The Racing Onion @RacingOnion Apr 27

Mike Smith banned from Derby after video emerges of him smiling next to a TVG employee.

Quote: The Racing Onion @RacingOnion Apr 26

Racing media members begin preparing for 6 straight weeks of fake laughing at Baffert's jokes

Quote: The Racing Onion @RacingOnion Apr 23

When it comes to Kentucky Derby fashion, we're all just chasing second place behind this guy.

Quote: The Racing Onion @RacingOnion Apr 23

Racing fan who says racing needs more mainstream coverage snaps after three days of Gronk stories.

Kentucky Oaks draw is complete:

https://amp.courier-journal.com/story/564113002

M Girl got a tough outside post #14.

Quote: Keeneone

Kentucky Oaks draw is complete:

https://amp.courier-journal.com/story/564113002

M Girl got a tough outside post #14.

I missed the biggest AP of my life with Monomoy and Midnight at 6-1 to 7-1 on Bovada two weeks ago. Buying into both would have had a positive EV and low variance. Sigh.

I still think Monomoy is the better fillie, but I will probably put a small bet on Midnight.

(And to be pedantic, considering they're both female horses with a name starting with M, Midnight could be called "M girl" too)

the link is to the best Beyers of all top horses in several categories

Mendelssohn is not mentioned I think because they felt they could not accurately make a figure based on foreign tracks

right now, Louisville is forecast for rain on Friday

if the track is sloppy, I drop out of the picture. I don't need more unpredictability when it comes to betting on horses. there's more than enough without the slop.

BTW it's pretty amazing to see the best Beyer for a 2 year old right now as being 55. It shows how great the improvement is as they mature.


https://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

As a lurker on this thread year after year, I look forward to a more lively conversation this week. My bets will come from advice from the experts here so win or lose, thanks in advance for the incites.

You are so screwed.

Quote: Boz

As a lurker on this thread year after year, I look forward to a more lively conversation this week. My bets will come from advice from the experts here so win or lose, thanks in advance for the incites.

Quote: DrawingDead

You are so screwed.

that comment could apply to just about everybody who's ever picked up a racing form or program




I'm going to go with Mendelssohn. Several contenders had very strong preps but only Mendelssohn had a spectacular prep in the UAE Derby.

Was it because the field was weak? Maybe. But he also set a track record and there must have been some truly great horses that have raced there.

He's got Ryan Moore on top who many racing scribes call the greatest jockey in the world. I don't think he's run on a hard dirt surface such as Churchill so that unpredictability might keep his odds in the decent range.

I'll bet him to show giving myself a margin for error. Well, that's not really the reason. It's because I'm wimpy. I don't think there's any more value in a show bet but I don't think there's any less value either unless you're likely to get a $2.40 payout or something like that.

Luck will definitely be a necessity to come home with a fat wallet.

Quote: lilredrooster

that comment could apply to just about everybody who's ever picked up a racing form or program

Exactly.

Quote: The Racing Onion @RacingOnion 15 Jun 2017

The Racing Onion Retweeted

Local horseplayer says he's "about even" (photo: @jake_doit )

Anyone with Oaks pp please? Thanks.

Quote: speedycrap

Anyone with Oaks pp please? Thanks.

Click on Rayya's Ultimate PPs:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
P*S 116
AWD 7.7
BSF 98
WOOD MEMORIAL
Med= 01:50.27 F2 00:00.48
Avg= 01:50.56 F4 00:00.77
2018 01:49.79 F3 Vino Rosso
-snip-

This is my best guess at what your post was pointing out...VR's Wood run was noteworthy.

HIs time was still about 2 seconds slower than the last Wood/Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 (1:47.92). Of course this is completely arbitrary and I am just being a smart a**.

Quote: ahiromu

I missed the biggest AP of my life with Monomoy and Midnight at 6-1 to 7-1 on Bovada two weeks ago. Buying into both would have had a positive EV and low variance. Sigh.

I still think Monomoy is the better fillie, but I will probably put a small bet on Midnight.

(And to be pedantic, considering they're both female horses with a name starting with M, Midnight could be called "M girl" too)

Don't beat yourself up. I took Midnight on Bovada, but for some reason didn't want to bet against myself with Monomoy. I have some other rooting interests, so I'll be hoping Monomoy doesn't run her race. The post is going to make her earn it.

If you want a horse that should be on or near the lead:

Flameaway
Promises Fulfilled
Firenze Fire

If you want a horse that can close:

My Boy Jack
Lone Sailor
Combatant
Free Drop Billy

If you want a horse that didn't race at age 2 or is very lightly raced and has tons of potential:

Justify
Magnum Moon
Hofburg

If you love Todd Pletcher:

Audible
Vino Rosso
Noble Indy
Magnum Moon again

If you want an International horse that brings the unknown (and loads of talent):

Mendelssohn

If you want the horses that had the best form as two year olds:

Bolt D'Oro
Good Magic
Solomini
Enticed

If you want a horse that has shown potential, but not recently:

Instilled Regard
Bravazo

My main bets will consist of the top horse listed in each category (except the last category. I also reserve the right to add extra closers to my trifecta.)

Quote: Keeneone

This is my best guess at what your post was pointing out...VR's Wood run was noteworthy.

HIs time was still about 2 seconds slower than the last Wood/Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 (1:47.92). Of course this is completely arbitrary and I am just being a smart a**.

I think the meaning of the final time of this edition of the Wood Memorial is ambiguous, not clearly plus or minus to me. Looking at the other nine furlong stakes on the card, I can still argue both sides of that, and have done so to a photo of a misty dawn Keeneland workout on my wall.

I do definitely disagree, however, with what I think may be a common opinion about the race shape. The apparently hot but misleading early fractions were set by an uncontested runaway who was largely irrelevant. It was not a pace meltdown with the race falling apart in front of the winner. Old Time Revival cooked himself with no assistance required or provided. But on yet again another hand, it was not a "golden rail" day of the sort that's notorious at Aqueduct. Out in mid-track was a fine place to be, and that's where the Wood winner was. So it was the opposite of the track bias scenario for last year's Preakness winner Cloud Computing, who ran a much better than looked Wood due to being stuck out wide against a strong "golden rail" track bias day at AQU, before his 13/1 score six weeks later at Pimlico.

Quote: Equibase

OLD TIME REVIVAL away quickly, appeared headstrong from the get-go, ran off the competition pulling on the left, approached the conclusion of the backstretch in possession of his largest advantage, measuring in the neighborhood of six and a half lengths, saw it dwindle down in a steadfast manner making his way on the second bend, got collared in the vicinity of the five-sixteenths marker and faltered

Monomoy jockey/trainer combo won 7 out of 12 the last 14 days. even though only 12 races it's still impressive.

Monomoy breezed 4 in 47 flat on 4/1; 1 out of 46

bad post should get backers better odds. fair trade.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: The Racing Onion @RacingOnion 15 Jun 2017

The Racing Onion Retweeted

Local horseplayer (photo: @jake_doit )

he probably just hit the pick 6 - a 6 figure payout - no doubt about it. he looks cool, calm and collected because that's his style. (please insert smiley faced emoji here)

Justify draws 7 and Mendelssohn draws 14, at 3-1 and 5-1 ML, respectively. That's probably ideal for Justify, right?

And future victor, Solomini, gets PP #17 and 30-1 ML.

https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/2018-kentucky-derby-odds-contenders-post-draw-favorite-justify-draws-no-7-post/

re Justify: no horse has won the Derby without having raced as a 2 year old since 1882.

Kentucky Oaks;

My top 3:
#2 - Coach Rocks
#5 - Wonder Gadot
#14 - Monomoy Girl

If the track ends up sloppy/wet, I would probably drop Coach Rocks and add one of these 2:
#3 - Classy Act
#12 - Midnight Bisou

----------

If anyone has a runner they like for the "Old Forester" aka the Turf Classic, I would love to hear about it. Race 11 run right before the K. Derby.

Although it is still a few days away, my pick at this point is Magnum Moon -- love the pedigree

very interesting point made by a poster on a different forum - something that as a bettor I have never before considered:

"Every entrant in the Derby has a birthday of January 1st, regardless of the actual date they were dropped by their dam. Now which horse would you put money on? A horse 1,216 days old ( 364+365+365+122) or a horse 952 days old( 100+365+365+122)? If I had time I would cross check the Stud Book with race results and test my theory. I believe the theory would prove true."

I would speculate that using this info could be very valuable particularly in maiden races especially re first time starters.

I'd love to hear Dead weigh in on this.

Quote: aceofspades

Although it is still a few days away, my pick at this point is Magnum Moon -- love the pedigree

You play horse??? You know well or just.....?????

Completely random things I noticed in the Derby pps:

-Sire Scat Daddy has 4 entered, followed by Curlin and Medaglia d'Oro with 2 each.
-There are no grey horses in the field.
-5 jockeys are ridding their mounts for the very first time.

Justify is really the only runner I do not want to see win...
1) Baffert
2) Morning line favorite
3) Career earnings = $666,000

Quote: lilredrooster

...>...>... I'd love to hear Dead weigh in on this.

Okay then, I'll try, not letting the absence of anything remotely like a clear method for making money or definitely testing any part of what I think about it get in the way.

Yes, it is something that matters; the actual age counted in days from birth is correlated to the degree of maturity and therefore current athletic ability. Which is no doubt why the month of foaling is on the top line of past performance products and track programs, right above the identity of their mommy & daddy. And the younger they are the greater the impact, for reasons that will probably be intuitively obvious. So with a 2 y/o in June >>> impact than for a 3 y/o in September.

However, "correlated" is not the same thing as "determines" and to be really useful for race wagering it would need to reveal something that's not often expressed at least as much or more in workouts and judgmental observation of physical conformation. And most significantly TO ME (not necessarily for others) given the parts of the game I prefer to focus on the most, the extent to which their inherited physiology tends towards precocious speed vs. long maturing stamina also matters greatly in much the same way, and on average I find that the balance between factors shifts away from relative birth age towards other developmental factors with increased age and greater distance.

Note that I'm NOT much of a juvenile hyper-sprint player at all. And never have been, even though I started out in the game eons ago on a planet long ago & far away at somewhat dumpy relatively obscure local leaky-roof joints and middling regional type venues at which that would've been an especially useful specialty. This means I'm absolutely NOT one of the better sources of information and understanding around for someone looking to pursue this particular factor in more depth and in those races where it is likely to be strongest. Rubbing shoulders with a couple of guys forty+ years ago who WERE all about that kind of race, and good at it, did not confer any of their "Wednesday afternoon feature - The Willamette River Obstetrics & Gynecology Clinic Purse for Two Year Old Maidens at Four Furlongs" magic upon me. At all.

Hows that for not helping overmuch?

Thanks Dead. It was helpful.
When I saw the OP I was astounded that all the time I've spent reading books on handicapping and actually betting I had never really thought about it.
Not that I have any kind of plan to put it into use, I hate betting maidens.
But I might go back over old races using Equibase and see how it plays out in Maiden Special events.

My 2cents about the M girl.14 post is bad but might not kill her. She might be 2 to 3 wide on the lead or close to the lead. Being outside tracking is way better along the rail pushed by others. Form her last race, she won by 5. Extra 1/8 ❨hopefully❩wont kill her. Win?? Show !!
Tri must include. I think the best value is SHOW. Hope for $3.0 for $2.0 bet. 50% return in 2 minutes. Not bad at all. I will put $200-$300 on her.

Quote: ahiromu

Justify draws 7 and Mendelssohn draws 14, at 3-1 and 5-1 ML, respectively. That's probably ideal for Justify, right?

And future victor, Solomini, gets PP #17 and 30-1 ML.

https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/2018-kentucky-derby-odds-contenders-post-draw-favorite-justify-draws-no-7-post/

I think Justify drew perfectly. If he breaks well, he will be tough to beat.

Quote: lilredrooster

re Justify: no horse has won the Derby without having raced as a 2 year old since 1882.

How many more times will we hear that stat this weekend?

Quote: speedycrap

My 2cents about the M girl.14 post is bad but might not kill her. She might be 2 to 3 wide on the lead or close to the lead. Being outside tracking is way better along the rail pushed by others. Form her last race, she won by 5. Extra 1/8 ❨hopefully❩wont kill her. Win?? Show !!
Tri must include. I think the best value is SHOW. Hope for $3.0 for $2.0 bet. 50% return in 2 minutes. Not bad at all. I will put $200-$300 on her.

I really think Bisou is going to take care of Monomoy. I'm not sure who Monomoy has really beaten. I also think Bisou is the better show bet. I'd definitely check the pools before betting.

Quote: FinsRule

I think Justify drew perfectly. If he breaks well, he will be tough to beat.

I offer you 7-1 on Justify. Max bet $20. Bet counts when he starts. Scratch for any reason as no action.

I checked about an hour ago on weather.com and it indicated rain in the morning in Louisville tomorrow but not in the afternoon.

hopefully the track will be dry for the Oaks so I can allow myself to bet

Quote: FinsRule

How many more times will we hear that stat this weekend?

Way, way too many times. And it will be long winded because someone will call it the curse of Apollo and then they have to go over the history lesson... Every time.

Quote: ahiromu

Way, way too many times. And it will be long winded because someone will call it the curse of Apollo and then they have to go over the history lesson... Every time.

And it is not only about Justify, Magnum Moon also is up against the "curse".

Quote: speedycrap

Quote: aceofspades

Although it is still a few days away, my pick at this point is Magnum Moon -- love the pedigree

You play horse??? You know well or just.....?????

playing the ponies was my first foray into gambling and have loved it ever since

Churchill Downs simulcast is off during prime time for the next three days. Are you kidding me? Is this normal? Seems like NBC (sports) bought them out.

Quote: aceofspades

Quote: speedycrap

Quote: aceofspades

Although it is still a few days away, my pick at this point is Magnum Moon -- love the pedigree

You play horse??? You know well or just.....?????

playing the ponies was my first foray into gambling and have loved it ever since

So you become my reliable source. Thanks.

MENDELSSOHN

2016 : MOST EXPENSIVE YEARLING IN NORTH AMERICA @ $3,000,000, SPEAKS WELL FOR BREEDING AND CONFORMATION

2017 : SHIPS TO USA AND WINS BREEDER'S CUP AT 1 MILE ON TURF

2018 : SHIPS TO DUBAI AND WINS AT 1M 3/16, BY 18, WHILE BREAKING TRACK RECORD BY 1 SECOND, FIRST TIME ON DIRT

TRAINER : AIDAN O'BRIEN HAS WON 12 IRISH DERBIES AND 12 BREEDER'S CUP RACES

JOCKEY : RYAN MOORE HAS WON 9 BREEDER'S CUP RACES, AVERAGED 20% WINS FOR LAST 12 YEARS

AFTER UAE DERBY WIN, MOORE " the colt was still learning and a "bit green in places", and could still get better." BEYERS 106

HORSE HAS WON AT 1 m 3/16. NO OTHER DERBY HORSE HAS EVEN RUN AT LONGER THAN 1 1/8 M.

LENGTH OF STRETCH GULFSTREAM 898FT SANTA ANITA 990 CHURCHILL DOWNS 1,234 DUBAI 1,312 FEET

Quote: edwardjsmith

MENDELSSOHN

2016 : MOST EXPENSIVE YEARLING IN NORTH AMERICA @ $3,000,000, SPEAKS WELL FOR BREEDING AND CONFORMATION

2017 : SHIPS TO USA AND WINS BREEDER'S CUP AT 1 MILE ON TURF

2018 : SHIPS TO DUBAI AND WINS AT 1M 3/16, BY 18, WHILE BREAKING TRACK RECORD BY 1 SECOND, FIRST TIME ON DIRT

TRAINER : AIDAN O'BRIEN HAS WON 12 IRISH DERBIES AND 12 BREEDER'S CUP RACES

JOCKEY : RYAN MOORE HAS WON 9 BREEDER'S CUP RACES, AVERAGED 20% WINS FOR LAST 12 YEARS

AFTER UAE DERBY WIN, MOORE " the colt was still learning and a "bit green in places", and could still get better." BEYERS 106

HORSE HAS WON AT 1 m 3/16. NO OTHER DERBY HORSE HAS EVEN RUN AT LONGER THAN 1 1/8 M.

LENGTH OF STRETCH GULFSTREAM 898FT SANTA ANITA 990 CHURCHILL DOWNS 1,234 DUBAI 1,312 FEET

How do you feel about about all the shipping?

Mmmmmkay then, perhaps there's a slight edit to an itty bitty little data point called for there:

Quote: edwardjsmith

...<SNIP>...

WHILE BREAKING TRACK RECORD BY 1 SECOND

...<SNIP>...

While also accomplishing the feat of simultaneously running either the slowest or the third slowest time (depending how you choose to count) for that race on that surface. Perhaps not quite so odd to say, when one adds that before 2016 there weren't any comparable times, because there couldn't be, because it was previously run on a Tapeta course (synthetic material manufactured with a combination of shredded rubber, carpet fibers, and wax) which was totally ripped out & hauled away and replaced by more conventional dirt for the 2016 race, then followed by a major reconstruction/refurbishment & reconfiguration in the nearly new dirt track between the only previous two dirt runnings of the UAE Derby on it and this one. Yeah, well, whatever, ya know, details, details.

But I do note that Mendelssohn's supporters seem to have laid in an encouraging strategic stockpile of CAPITAL LETTERS! Bully, bully! And impressively to me, and I mean this, also spell his name! Seriously, two gold stars for that one, which is something that can't be said for the connections of a certain recent Derby & Triple Crown winner with what I think should've been a less difficult middle-eastern themed name, coming from an Egyptian born owner no less.

Good luck.

Shipping should be considered. But if the horse looks good on post parade, then worth the bet if odds acceptable. Basically this horse is win or nowhere.
Before reading this , I like Magnum Moon. But never raced at 2 is a big question mark about the long trend. Plus this one also.

I'm surprised there's not more excitement about Audible. I'm also surprised he's 8/1 on the morning line.

He's done nothing but win.

Could someone please explain to me what the knock on this horse is.

RE: Mr. M, via UAE

He looks like a middle distance horse to me, but even so I do find some things to like about the Magnier-Tabor & Aiden O'Brian (easier for me to spell than a certain German composer) colt. But I'd find them a lot easier to like if this was a year for them to give their European entry his best chance in this event, by shipping in well in advance instead of just in time. Yes, they did it their way successfully for the BC turf race on the west coast, but it isn't at all ideal IMO. Among other things, remember to consider the days of mandatory confinement in quarantine when looking at that.

Quote: speedycrap

I offer you 7-1 on Justify. Max bet $20. Bet counts when he starts. Scratch for any reason as no action.

It's a great bet, and I should take it. But I'm not going to. I'm not big on betting with people I don't know in person. I'd suggest anyone else on this forum to take the bet though!

Quote: speedycrap

Shipping should be considered. But if the horse looks good on post parade, then worth the bet if odds acceptable. Basically this horse is win or nowhere.
Before reading this , I like Magnum Moon. But never raced at 2 is a big question mark about the long trend. Plus this one also.

I agree. I'm putting Mendelssohn only in spot 1 of my trifecta.

Quote: lilredrooster

I'm surprised there's not more excitement about Audible. I'm also surprised he's 8/1 on the morning line.

He's done nothing but win.

Could someone please explain to me what the knock on this horse is.

I agree. NO ONE is talking about him. I have him at 13-1 for a future ticket. I'm also going to use him prominently in my trifecta ticket.

Mendellsohn ran 2 and 1/5 seconds faster than the next fastest UAE Derby winner. He did get a 106 Beyers and beat a G3 winner at that track by 18+ lengths and the third place horse was 20 back, also a G3 winner at Meydan. Not bad for a horse going over a mile on dirt for the first time.

Quote: FinsRule

I agree. NO ONE is talking about him. I have him at 13-1 for a future ticket. I'm also going to use him prominently in my trifecta ticket.

Yep. BBB on this site seemed to like him a bit. I could see him winning. His Holy Bull run was the best prep race IMO. Only knocks on him is his pedigree (I am no expert here) seems ordinary for these types. And his last workout @ CD was nothing special. Great jockey and a great post could lead to a win. I am looking elsewhere.

I already have Mendelssohn, Vino Rosso, and Combatant in my Derby Futures barn. So I hope they win the race. But my handicap selection for the race is Good Magic.

Good Magic broke his maiden in a Grade 1 race. That is pretty incredible. I have always thought this was a special horse. Unfortunately, he won the BC Juvenile, thus killing his early futures for the Derby. Love his pedigree, his jockey, his trainer, his last workout @ CD, his lack of blinkers (etc,), his large field wins, his competition, his weight carried, his pressing running style, his 12/1 morning line (I think he may get bet down a bit), his post position, and his lightly raced schedule. If you where to ask breeders and owners which 2 (very difficult races before the Triple Crown) they would love to win with one young horse, it would easily be the BC Juvenile and the Blue Grass Stakes @ Keeneland. These 2 races mean a lot in the horse racing world. I think/hope Good Magic is about to race his best race of his early career...we shall see.
Solomini seems to be overlooked here (@30-1). He is the other Baffert entry and that is a interesting betting angle IMO. Second to Good Magic in the BC Juvenile and likely better than his last 2 races. Knock would be Baffert has not been good lately with shippers out of California for whatever reasons???
GLTA

Uh-oh.

Pending observation of paddock temperament and post parade conformation and the warm-up... oh frag it, who am I kidding. This Derby isn't going to be about much more than a sporting preference for me, like picking "my" team to root for. And now I note that I seem to have a disturbing amount of overlap going on here. Call this the horse punter's handicapping angle of doom.

I'm making Vino (Rosso - Pgm. #18) and Magic (Good - Pgm. #6) my home team #1 & #1A. And in the wishful thinking school of race analysis, I wanted to find a sensible way to also talk myself into Hofburg (Pgm. #9) as some kind of pinch hitting utility infielder maybe hitting the board for a piece, but failed.

I could make some reasonable arguments for those two, including the potential value offered on what I'm guessing the tote board will look like. But really, I'm giving up on betting the Churchill feature on Saturday for an expectation of a profitable financial edge; I don't have one, and squinting harder won't give it to me. It is more about what I'd enjoy seeing at this point. Including Chad Brown for one thing, who I'm 100% sure won't respond by strutting & crowing & generally jackassing around for a couple of weeks if his colt gets there. Or whining like a spoiled little piggy if he then gets beat in Baltimore or New York afterward. So, wine, or magic, or magic wine, I don't ask for much.

Good luck to some of us.