2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

Quote: ahiromu

Stop talking about Vino Rosso. :(

Do you prefer white wine? :)

I would guess Restoring Hope will be bet strong in the Wood. VR's odds could easily drift up from the morning line.

Justify is appealing but he's never gone more than 8 furlongs and this race is 9. it's a big unknown as to how he will handle the increase in distance

Bolt also has never tried 9 but he's done very well at 8.5 so it's less of an unknown

Quote: lilredrooster

Justify is appealing but he's never gone more than 8 furlongs and this race is 9. it's a big unknown as to how he will handle the increase in distance

Bolt also has never tried 9 but he's done very well at 8.5 so it's less of an unknown

Justify has also only beaten 8 horses in his short career. I believe Baffert was very high (and sentimental) on McKinzie who is now out of the SA Derby and likely the Triple Crown races. Justify apparently was going to run in Arkansas until McKinzie was shelved.
Trainer/Owner Ruis has 2 entered in the SA Derby. I would guess Bolt will settle back and Orbit Rain will be the rabbit trying to pressure Justify.

Quote: DrawingDead

Those preps for preps for the Derby with the slow raw unadjusted final times that I sneered about actually got some pretty good speed figures when adjustments for daily track variants were applied. But I'm still not very enthusiastic about anything I've seen so far. Maybe in the next round of mostly nine-furlong mostly Grade 1s in the last several before the main event. Or maybe not; nothing says each crop has to have a great one by May of their sophomore season.

I think these adjusted AWDs (Average Winning Distance #s) have had limited value for this purpose in recent years, for a variety of reasons, and they also can now easily be calculated by anyone on the fly from some past-performance formats, but FWIW, here are my AWD figures for the pedigrees of the 23 horses that were prominent enough to be included in Pool #3:

#1-Audible 6.6f
#2-Avery Island 7.6f
#3-Bolt d'Oro 7.9f
#4-Bravazo 7.1f
#5-Catholic Boy 7.2f
#6-Combatant 7.2f
#7-Flameaway 7.2f
#8-Free Drop Billy 7.5f
#9-Gold Town 7.7f
#10-Good Magic 7.5f
#11-Instilled Regard 7.4f
#12-Justify 7.2f
#13-Kanthaka 6.2f
#14-Magnum Moon 7.1f
#15-McKinzie 7.1f
#16-Mendelsohn 7.0f
#17-My Boy Jack 6.9f
#18-Noble Indy 6.6f
#19-Promises Fulfilled 6.7f
#20-Solomini 7.4f
#21-Sporting Chance 7.4f
#22-Strike Power 6.9f
#23-Vino Rosso 7.7f

Here are additional AWDs for those added in the final KYDFW Pool #4 (ignore program #s listed from Pool #3 above for this pool, of course):

Enticed 7.5f
Gronkowski 7.0f
Hofburg 7.4f
Lone Sailor 7.0f
Quip 6.9f
Runaway Ghost 7.1f
Title Ready 7.1f

Mississippi, who was #16 in this Pool, is out:

Churchill Downs News Release: Wagering Suspended on Mississippi in Kentucky Derby Future Pool 4

He will probably still appear on some casino books' non-parimutual Derby futures for a little while, and they might even book a few wagers on him in some places before they get around to taking him off the board in their shop. I think I've probably had the experience of being the first one to inform a Las Vegas book that something was officially out and they should take it down perhaps half a dozen times or so over the years, as I imagine a few others here may have as well. They've always done so promptly whenever I've had that conversation with the management of a book, but they don't always stay completely current in that way on their own. So as always, up to the bettor to do their own up to date due diligence, and for the buyer to beware or benefit from more current information.

Any of you experiencing heavy lag on your simulcast streams? Expressbet and TVG are acting up for me. I really don't want to use Twinspires' laggy, delayed streams. They all went down yesterday, for a few minutes, I wonder if it's on their end.

It's either that or something funny is going on for me. I have gigabit service so this is confusing.

Edit: It's only the Keeneland stream on both ADWs. :/

My underdog pick is Sporting Chance in the Bluegrass, good luck everyone.

Quip is skipping the Blue Grass Stakes to run in Arkansas. The early weather forecast for next weekend is rain in Hot Springs AK.

I have noticed (from a small sample size) that horses coming from Louisiana have won numerous races already at Keeneland. Zing Zang did win @ Fairgrounds and has also trained there. Maybe he will show up for a piece of the pie (top 4 finish) today?

Quote: ahiromu

-snip-
Edit: It's only the Keeneland stream on both ADWs. :/

Maybe it is weather related? It certainly looks cold and overcast in Lexington.

Quote: ahiromu

My underdog pick is Sporting Chance in the Bluegrass, good luck everyone.

3rd start off long layoff, bullet workout after last race, but I am not sure he wants the longer distance. Wide open race.

24-1 shot just won race 6 and blew up the pick 5 I spent hours on yesterday. I think I'm going to stay away from that track for the rest of the day.

Edit: Keeneland

Vino Rosso! He doesn't care about inside bias or speed bias, he just needs to be able to run without anything impeding him and he will win. I bet he loses the Derby but steals Preakness/Belmont.

Quote: Keeneone

I am not sure he wants the longer distance.

Damn, you were right, suuuuper tired on the stretch.

Quote: ahiromu

Damn, you were right, suuuuper tired on the stretch.

He did look tired and his foul/DQ to 4th likely cost him all chance to make the Derby.

What a chalky day in the preps (1 "upset"):
Wood - Vino Rosso wins 3rd choice (4/1) (favorite finished 2nd) - I made a little money on this race.
Blue Grass - Good Magic wins as the favorite (morning line top 3 completed the trifecta) Lost plenty here including pick3/4 tickets.
Santa Anita - Justify wins as the favorite (2nd choice completes exacta) - Did not bet due to low odds.

One more big race -Ark Derby and one lesser race -Lexington Stakes left to run.

Seems like they are slowly updating the top 20 list:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard
Why is Gronkowski listed in the 4th futures pool and not listed in the top 20? As DD discussed earlier, this creates confusion for bettors...

the Derby looks extremely competitive; I might instead bet the Oaks where Monomoy Girl has won 5 out of 6.

in her last race she earned a comment I've never heard before - "stylish fashion." She definitely impressed the chart writer.

she's fast too. last week she worked 4 breezing in 47:00 1 out of 46. I'm hoping the crowd of once in a blue moon bettors doesn't crush her down too much.

if the other very strong filly, undefeated Dream Tree is up against her that might happen

Quote: lilredrooster

the Derby looks extremely competitive; I might instead bet the Oaks where Monomoy Girl has won 5 out of 6.

I made a pretty penny off of her yesterday, wonderful race (she actually saved my day). That said, I don't know if I could emotionally handle winning all race, just to have Midnight Bisou storm past you on the turn/stretch:

https://youtu.be/0kGuEWVcke0?t=1m
3 horse

I haven't compared speed figures and I'd imagine the pace Monomoy sets would be disadvantageous, but Midnight's closing speed was awe inspiring.

Quote: ahiromu

I haven't compared speed figures and I'd imagine the pace Monomoy sets would be disadvantageous, but Midnight's closing speed was awe inspiring.

I watched the vid and it did look like Midnight's closing speed was great.

I, too don't have speed figures but I took a closer look and here's what I found:

Santa Anita is generally considered to be a faster track than Keeneland but Monomoy's final time was 1.05 seconds faster than Midnight's.

Then I compared Midnight's race to a Grade 3 for 3 year old fillies, the Providencia Stakes with only a 150K purse with restrictions - the horses must be non-winners of a graded stake at one mile or more since Nov. 7; that took place ON THE SAME DAY AT THE SAME TRACK - Santa Anita.

This race for supposedly lesser fillies was quite a bit faster than Midnight's Grade 1 unrestricted race.

the final times - Midnight's 8.5 furlongs - 144.79 - the Grade 3 at 9 furlongs - final time 147.48

the lesser fillies closing fractions from 6 furlongs to a mile was 23.64. the horses in Midnight's race did the same fraction in a very slow 25.97.

the lesser horses covered the final furlong in 11:50 - the horses in Midnight's race covered the last one half furlong in 6.78.

Monomoy covered the ground from 6 to 8 furlongs in 25:00 and the final one half furlong in 6.12.

I'm going to assume the Oaks will have a full field increasing the risk that Midnight could get blocked.


despite all this Midnight's closing kick did look impressive and horses are improving all the time at this age and she definitely could be a major factor.

just saying - but even so you definitely could be right. Midnight might blow past Monomoy.

People (general public) seemed pretty impressed last week with Mendelssohn and Audible. Was anyone super impressed with this weeks Derby preps?

Just looking for opinions...

My "investment" in the last futures pool was Solomini. In the Rebel Stakes, he stumbled out of the gate, had to be visibly held back while on the backstretch (because Prat decided on the rail position early and couldn't find a path out), and failed trying to take the rail position on the stretch, to the point that he had to move 10' sideways to actually find a straight path. If Solomini doesn't trip, he leads wire to wire (or stalks in a better position), he wins, and it isn't even close. This horse had to stop and slow down three times in a race, you don't come back from that in a G2 Derby Prep. Regardless of PP, he wins the Arkansas Derby in style and is a favorite to beat Justify. I think he can handle the distance.

It's a longer shot bet, but I honestly believe 25-1 is a frickin steal for this son of Curlin and distant relative of Secretariat (mother's father's mother's father).

Quote: Keeneone

People (general public) seemed pretty impressed last week with Mendelssohn and Audible. Was anyone super impressed with this weeks Derby preps?

Just looking for opinions...

Justify lived up to expectations, but "no" is my answer to the rest.

I'm interested in digging into the Wood more deeply, and doing so in the context of how things were on the rest of Saturday's Aqueduct card. At first blush, comparing the Wood Memorial to other 9f races at the track that day... can potentially lead to some interesting possible interpretations of Vino Rosso's performance.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU040718USA.html

Quote: Equibase

AQUEDUCT - April 7, 2018 - Race 6
STAKES Gazelle S. Grade 2 - Thoroughbred
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.
One And One Eighth Miles On The Dirt
Fractional Times: 23.97 48.31 1:13.26 1:37.77 Final Time: 1:50.42

AQUEDUCT - April 7, 2018 - Race 7
STAKES Excelsior S. Grade 3 - Thoroughbred
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
One And One Eighth Miles On The Dirt
Fractional Times: 24.81 48.72 1:12.70 1:37.83 Final Time: 1:50.45

AQUEDUCT - April 7, 2018 - Race 10
STAKES Wood Memorial S. presented by NYRA Bets Grade 2 - Thoroughbred
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
One And One Eighth Miles On The Dirt
Fractional Times: 22.96 46.68 1:11.44 1:36.98 Final Time: 1:49.79

Hmmm.

Quote: Keeneone

People (general public) seemed pretty impressed last week with Mendelssohn and Audible. Was anyone super impressed with this weeks Derby preps?

Just looking for opinions...

I was very impressed with Justify. I don't know how his time compares but he had a certain presence about him. Like he knew he was going to win.

I'm surprised that the public doesn't seem to be considering Mendelssohn a prohibitive obvious favorite since he was the only one that had a spectacular prep.

My breakdown of the times on Saturday was flawed because I missed the fact that the Providencia stakes was run on Turf. Oh, well. I tried to delete that post but I wasn't able to -the edit function was not available. Sorry about bad info. Request that the mod delete that post from 4/8 10:39. Thanks.

Blue Grass - I'm just not a Good Magic fan. He is the one top 6 horse that I have absolutely no money on. If he wins the Derby then it will be a rough rough day for me financially. He raced okay, but did he look like a Derby winner?

Wood - Vino Rosso. Not sure why he wasn't in Pool 4. I'd rate his performance as pretty close to on par with Good Magic. He's a nice horse. I don't think he is a huge threat to win the Derby. But that's only because the field is so deep this year. Last year he would have been a solid contender.

SA - That race went pretty much like everyone should have expected. Ruis said Bolt would drop back a bit and try to challenge Justify the final 3/8. The problem was that no one bothered to challenge Justify the first 6 furlongs. Justify is my Derby pick. But 3-1 is an insane price for a future wager. That's about the price Pharoah went off at. Pharoah had 2-3 serious challengers. Justify has 5-6.

Much more to come later.

Betonline finally put up futures. They're basically the pool odds but a little cut back (Justify pays +225 vs +320 in the futures pool).

A funny note is that they decided to provide one for the Oaks as well, but they seem to have no clue. Monomoy girl is at +180 and Midnight Bisou is at +160 (no typos here), with the rest at 4 digits (aside from Rayya). Bovada appears to be offering more realistic returns, +650 on Monomoy Girl and +800-1000 on the other real contenders. I wonder if +650 for Monomoy Girl is a steal.

Quote: ahiromu

I wonder if +650 for Monomoy Girl is a steal.

I don't know if it's a steal. It's hard to calculate the probability that she could be scratched due to a minor injury and the bet is lost.
But I really like that Girl.
She had her head up in the stretch looking like she was having fun.
She's won on the lead and she's won coming off the pace.
She hasn't really been asked to show her speed but I think she can based on her workouts.
Equibase gave her and Midnight Bisou the same speed figure for their last outings: 107
Here are all their speed figures for the male and female contenders:
I think all the various organizations that put out speed figures calculate them slightly differently; so a Beyer 107 doesn't mean the same thing as an Equibase 107.


http://www.equibase.com/static/statistics/eleaders.html#3F

Quote: lilredrooster

I don't know if it's a steal. It's hard to calculate the probability that she could be scratched due to a minor injury and the bet is lost.
But I really like that Girl.
She had her head up in the stretch looking like she was having fun.
She's won on the lead and she's won coming off the pace.
She hasn't really been asked to show her speed but I think she can based on her workouts.
Equibase gave her and Midnight Bisou the same speed figure for their last outings: 107
Here are all their speed figures for the male and female contenders:
I think all the various organizations that put out speed figures calculate them slightly differently; so a Beyer 107 doesn't mean the same thing as an Equibase 107.


http://www.equibase.com/static/statistics/eleaders.html#3F

Monomoy girl was given a 95 Beyer & Midnight Bisou a 94 Beyer (a little bit of digging). I think Monomoy Girl might be the better fillie, but I keep watching Midnight Bisou close ten lengths in that relatively narrow Santa Anita turn. I think it's the more entertaining bet at the very least, assuming Mike Smith takes the helm.

Quote: ahiromu

My "investment" in the last futures pool was Solomini. In the Rebel Stakes, he stumbled out of the gate, had to be visibly held back while on the backstretch (because Prat decided on the rail position early and couldn't find a path out), and failed trying to take the rail position on the stretch, to the point that he had to move 10' sideways to actually find a straight path. If Solomini doesn't trip, he leads wire to wire (or stalks in a better position), he wins, and it isn't even close. This horse had to stop and slow down three times in a race, you don't come back from that in a G2 Derby Prep. Regardless of PP, he wins the Arkansas Derby in style and is a favorite to beat Justify. I think he can handle the distance.
It's a longer shot bet, but I honestly believe 25-1 is a frickin steal for this son of Curlin and distant relative of Secretariat (mother's father's mother's father).Justify lived up to expectations, but "no" is my answer to the rest.

I Iiked the Rebel. The time did not seem stellar when compared to the Azeri (won by Martini Glass carrying 7 lbs more) run right before it.
Azeri - Times in 100ths: :23.15 :46.92 1:11.23 1:36.38 1:42.95
Rebel- Times in 100ths: :23.42 :47.15 1:11.26 1:36.39 1:42.68
Don't get me wrong I think Magnum Moon ran big. He broke on top, ceded the lead, went 3-4 wide, and closed solidly for the "professional" looking win. Everyone else seemed ok. Solomini looked green and on the wrong lead down the stretch. He has every right to improve with a little better trip maybe in the clear. I have Combatant in my barn and his move in the Rebel was eye catching from a poor post. But he was no match and seems to be a step slower than many 3yos right now.

Quote: DrawingDead

I'm interested in digging into the Wood more deeply, and doing so in the context of how things were on the rest of Saturday's Aqueduct card. At first blush, comparing the Wood Memorial to other 9f races at the track that day... can potentially lead to some interesting possible interpretations of Vino Rosso's performance.-snip-
Hmmm.-snip-

My interpretation: Vino Rosso got a prefect pace set up and won. Enticed was too close to the hot pace and got outfinished.

Quote: lilredrooster

I was very impressed with Justify. I don't know how his time compares but he had a certain presence about him. Like he knew he was going to win.-snip-

Once I saw his 6 furlong split I knew the race was over. He was the controlling speed and he got to jog (at a high rate) down the backside. Bolt still made it a little interesting coming for home. Justify drifted wide turning for home forcing Bolt to the inside, but he switched leads nicely to finish strong.
Santa Anita Derby - Times in 100ths: :23.96 :47.85 1:12.61 1:37.02 1:49.72 (9 furlongs)
Justify's last victory - Times in 100ths: :22.42 :45.10 1:09.64 1:35.73 (8 furlongs)
I did not think the race was great by any means. But to be honest, I think it is exactly what he needed. The big race to win is still a few weeks away...

Quote: ahiromu

Betonline finally put up futures. They're basically the pool odds but a little cut back (Justify pays +225 vs +320 in the futures pool).

A funny note is that they decided to provide one for the Oaks as well, but they seem to have no clue. Monomoy girl is at +180 and Midnight Bisou is at +160 (no typos here), with the rest at 4 digits (aside from Rayya). Bovada appears to be offering more realistic returns, +650 on Monomoy Girl and +800-1000 on the other real contenders. I wonder if +650 for Monomoy Girl is a steal.

I keep going back to that Oaks futures page on Bovada. +650 is a steal. She'll go off at 2-1? 5-2 maybe? I think it's a must bet. My problem is that I've already put some money on Bisou and some of the runners from the Fantasy. Monomoy is pretty much a hedge for me at this point. But +650 is so good.

I think she is a more likely winner than Justify (even though I'm picking against her). Justify is 5/2 or 3/1 right now. +650? It won't be there for long.

My Derby Dozen:

1) Justify
2) Mendelssohn
3) Audible
4) Bolt D'Oro
5) Magnum Moon
6) Vino Rosso
7) Good Magic
8) Noble Indy
9) Flameaway
10) Solomini
11) Quip
12) My Boy Jack

Quote: FinsRule

My Derby Dozen:

1) Justify
2) Mendelssohn
3) Audible
4) Bolt D'Oro
5) Magnum Moon
6) Vino Rosso
7) Good Magic
8) Noble Indy
9) Flameaway
10) Solomini
11) Quip
12) My Boy Jack

I could easily see your Top 3 being the Top 3 betting choices at post time in the Derby.
Good Magic might be a bit low on your list. More on this later.

Arkansas Derby - Oaklawn Park Race #11 (Sat 4/14 ~7:18pm est)
Only 9 entered. Rain forecast for Friday/Friday night. Was really hoping Combatant would get a better post. No real front runner/speedster signed up.

Click on Magnum Moon's Ultimate PP's:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=OP&race=11&param1=3520&param2=1120&param3=1753642

Lexington Stakes - Keeneland Race #9 (Sat 4/14 ~4:57pm est)
12 entered. My Boy Jack stands out from a class standpoint, but boy did he get a poor post (#12). Curious road to make (and win) the Kentucky Derby. He might need 1st or 2nd to make the gate @ CDowns. A couple other horses could have Derby aspirations in here: Greyvitos/Seven Trumpets. Looks ripe for an upset. I am unlikely to bet this race, but Zanesville looks as good as any in here.
Click on Pony Up's Ultimate PP's:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

Quote: Keeneone

Click on Pony Up's Ultimate PP's:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

Thanks for the PP's.

Random question about track bias, I truly enjoy that part of Ultimate PP's, but in a lot of these races they only use a handful of races. For example, in the Arkansas Derby (Magnum Moon via that link), they only have five races run at 9f - this gives you absolutely no discernible information. What's holding them back from using information over the past 5-10 years? I'd imagine they run the same course (starting in the same place, ending in the same place). Is there more to track bias than post position and distance from the first turn? Even if there is, wouldn't these two criteria be vastly more important than if the dirt had 5% more sand one year? I'd like to see what's happened in the past hundred races over 4-5 years at this distance, is there any way I can get that data?

I'm all in on Solomini to win the Derby. We shall see. I'm going to miss tomorrow's races, I'll be in the air, best of luck people.

Quote: FinsRule

I keep going back to that Oaks futures page on Bovada. +650 is a steal. She'll go off at 2-1? 5-2 maybe? I think it's a must bet. My problem is that I've already put some money on Bisou and some of the runners from the Fantasy. Monomoy is pretty much a hedge for me at this point. But +650 is so good.

I think she is a more likely winner than Justify (even though I'm picking against her). Justify is 5/2 or 3/1 right now. +650? It won't be there for long.

Monomoy has been pushed down to +500 and Midnight is down to +450. I don't know about you, but I sure missed out on that one, wavered too long. Although I kind of like Midnight more, it surprises me that Monomoy remains a slight underdog.

Quote: ahiromu

Thanks for the PP's.
-snip-
I'm all in on Solomini to win the Derby. We shall see. I'm going to miss tomorrow's races, I'll be in the air, best of luck people.

I do not really have a comment on the Track Bias stuff. Never really looked at it, maybe I should be? :) :)

I think Solomini has a big chance tomorrow. He likely only needs a top 4 finish to make the Derby. With a clean break (and his tactical speed) he may just go the front and win for fun. Worst case scenario: he gets locked up in a speed duel with someone and maybe tires late. I did watch a few races @ Oaklawn today (sealed track). A few speedy horses did get run down late. Favorites Amy's Challenge and Unique Bella (she bobbled at the break and rushed up) for example.
Fantasy:
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=OP&raceDate=04/13/2018&cy=USA&rn=7
Apple Blossum
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=OP&raceDate=04/13/2018&cy=USA&rn=9

Quote: Keeneone

I do not really have a comment on the Track Bias stuff. Never really looked at it, maybe I should be? :) :)

I'm sure you're already considering it when thinking about race flow. I just want to see a data set of 300-400 races vs the 50-100 races they usually have, little fluctuations in rail distance and track composition should matter less than having more data points. But maybe I'm missing something. Most of it is common sense though, so it isn't the end of the world.

If Solomini underperforms (outside of the top two imo) without excuses and still makes the Derby, my bet is worthless anyways. If he's got a lane on the final turn and isn't excessively wide, I think he wins. I really hate betting against Saez on Magnum Moon though... he's my favorite jockey. The dude consistently adds 5-10 Beyer points to any horse he takes over.

My Boy Jack the 5/2 m/l favorite in the Lexington is breaking from post 12.
in the Juvenile Turf he broke from post 13 and didn't like it finishing 7th the only time he didn't finish well except his first start
might be a good idea to look elsewhere

Quote: ahiromu

Monomoy has been pushed down to +500 and Midnight is down to +450. I don't know about you, but I sure missed out on that one, wavered too long. Although I kind of like Midnight more, it surprises me that Monomoy remains a slight underdog.

My bomber won the Fantasy yesterday. And Gadot finished 2nd. The only horse I like that I have no money on is Monomoy. 5-1 is still not that bad...

I'll go with Greyvitos and Tenfold today.

I like My Boy Jack and Solomini to finish 2nd.

Tried to talk myself into "finding" something in these two final Graded major "points" races before the Louisville spectacle, by resorting to the "squint 'till you imagine something's there" method, but failed.

Quote: NWS - Lexington, KY

Scattered thunderstorms this morning, then mainly cloudy during the afternoon with thunderstorms likely. High near 75F. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall possibly over one inch.

FWIW, at Keeneland those that IMO are likely to have a higher than average probability of an inherited physiology that would tend to enable them to handle a thick soupy or sticky "off" track well would be Telekinesis, Pony Up, and Zanesville. And they also happen to be 3 of the 4 in the Lexington Stks with clearly stout pedigrees for staying a distance of ground even greater than today's nine furlongs, with AWDs of 7.5f, 7.4f, 7.5f respectively. (The other remaining high AWD entered is the plodding irrelevant Arched Feather at 7.8f, who gets my award for the "what the fork are you doing here so far in the clouds away from your kind?" prize.)

While predicting off track form is always "iffy" I find this can be somewhat useful for a race in deep mud, or sticky slop, or for drying "cuppy" surfaces, but is NOT likely to apply so much at all to a more facile thin layered wet surface sitting atop a very firm base, which sometimes exists when a track has been "sealed" by the grounds crew in anticipation of weather, and is actually very quick and compacted even harder than a normally fast dry dirt track. Sometimes simple straightforward pure speed kills when it's like that.

Quote: NWS - Hot Springs - AR

Some clouds this morning will give way to generally sunny skies for the afternoon. High 58F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph.

In Steve Asmussen's cavalry battalion being thrown at this year's 3yo races, I sure would like the pedigree of Tenfold, if I saw some reason to think he might also run fast enough. But I'm not finding it. Of course he could naturally move up in only his 3rd start, but beyond that I'm not seeing one and he hasn't run to the numbers needed for this kind of race yet, not enough to be within five lengths of these at the wire while working hard to just clear his 1st allowance condition by a neck. And Asmussen's 1st call rider Santana is getting off him to stay with Combatant.

A major race three weeks out before running a classic distance is a little quick by today's standards. Not completely unreasonable, depending on the kind of race someone ends up getting, but it is starting to push it a bit by the training conventions of the last several decades. In days gone by they often ran back quicker than that in major races, including young three year-olds competing successfully in the classics, sometimes even wheeling back within two weeks or less, but not commonly in recent years.

One of the reasons for that is the current prevalence of Lasix in racing on this continent. I don't know if it is widely known, but along with often providing some immediate performance advantages beyond the explicitly stated purpose of being a prophylactic for respiratory bleeding under exertion, running on that diuretic also significantly affects recovery time. Other things being equal, on average they need more time between races when running "on the sauce."

So is anyone running today without Lasix, who therefore would potentially have an advantage in that way for coming back at ten furlongs on a (usually) deeper tiring surface on May 5th? Yes, there is one: Plainsman drawn in gate 7 at Oaklawn today has always run without Lasix. So do I want to bet him? Hell no. To me he looks like he might at most turn out to be a useful sprinter/miler at some level, as I'd expect for a son of Flatter. I see no reason to expect him to get anything bigger out of this than the minor checks that have been paying for his shoes & carrots & stall rent to date. So maybe he should be on Lasix, besides hiring more proficient humans to work for him, but there you have it in case someone finds that more useful here today than I do.

As a non horse person, but someone who might or might not watch the triple crown races, has there been less buzz/media/attention to this years horses than anytime in recent memory? I watch sportcenter, sports talk shows, etc., and don't remember a breath about a horse....

Quote: SOOPOO

As a non horse person, but someone who might or might not watch the triple crown races, has there been less buzz/media/attention to this years horses than anytime in recent memory? I watch sportcenter, sports talk shows, etc., and don't remember a breath about a horse....

It has been quiet. There really has not been a clear cut favorite. All the preps races are now over, so things will pick up over the next few weeks, One story line will definitely be about 2 horses Justify and Magnum Moon. They are both undefeated and have a chance to break the Apollo "curse" of winning the Kentucky Derby while never racing as a 2 year old.

Magnum Moon had it all his way today and crushed in the Ark Derby. Speed was not holding @ Oaklawn all day, but MM made it look easy.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=OP&raceDate=04/14/2018&cy=USA&rn=11

My Boy Jack barely got the job done @ Keeneland, but punched his ticket to the Derby.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=KEE&raceDate=04/14/2018&cy=USA&rn=9

Quote: DrawingDead

...the plodding irrelevant Arched Feather at 7.8f, who gets my award for the "what the fork are you doing here so far in the clouds away from your kind?" prize.

Woo-hoo, can I nail 'em or what, for dead last! Seriously, I've been consistently good at picking the one and only for the ignominy of "dead last" year after year in these, and in big fields, including the coming feature at event Churchill, much more so lately than predicting the part that could actually get me paid. That should be worth something some day, right?

Quote: Equibase

#11 - Arched Feather ...>...>...>...>... 10^24-1/2

FOOTNOTES

<...>

...yadda, yadda, yadda...

.<...>

...Arched Feather was done early."

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: DrawingDead

...the plodding irrelevant Arched Feather at 7.8f, who gets my award for the "what the fork are you doing here so far in the clouds away from your kind?" prize.

Woo-hoo, can I nail 'em or what, for dead last! Seriously, I've been consistently good at picking the one and only for the ignominy of "dead last" year after year in these, and in big fields, including the coming feature at event Churchill, much more so lately than predicting the part that could actually get me paid. That should be worth something some day, right?
-snip-

Funny stuff. You can just hear his connections telling people "You can't win it if you are not in it!". He did earn a check.
10th Place = $800

Early Derby and Oaks pps:

Derby
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Derby18Points.pdf
Oaks
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Oaks18Points.pdf

Derby contenders workout portal, with live & archived video of works in the final 2 weeks + clockers' & analysts' commentary:
KENTUCKY DERBY WORKOUTS - - LIVE WORKOUTS FOR KENTUCKY DERBY 144 BEGIN APRIL 21ST 7AM-8AM DAILY

Quote: SOOPOO

As a non horse person, but someone who might or might not watch the triple crown races, has there been less buzz/media/attention to this years horses than anytime in recent memory? I watch sportcenter, sports talk shows, etc., and don't remember a breath about a horse....

ESPN ignores horse racing and hockey completely. NBC Sports focuses on them. I think it really depends on how you find your sports.

Victor Espinoza worked out Bolt d'Oro today at Santa Anita. He now has the mount for the Derby. Javier Castellano opted to ride Audible in the Derby.

Quip is out. Trainer says he needs more time.
Gronkowski is now "questionable" for the Derby. Not really sure why.

#21 Combatant is now in and #22 Instilled Regard is next up if anyone else decides not to enter.

No activity on this thread for more than 4 days. Where the heck is everyone?

I love my top 3 - Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible. If any of them win, it'll be a profitable Derby. But I'd like to make it a REALLY profitable Derby. I'm trying to build a trifecta ticket with them at the top, but I am struggling to figure out what to do underneath.

Right now it seems like information overload time.

I'll probably just wait for the post draw. I think this year will be more important than most years.

If not for that law that makes betting on this thing mandatory, say if exactly the same race was carded as Race #6 Thursday the Salty Allowance Tire Barn Employee of the Month Feature Stakes, it isn't something I'd be thinking of betting on at all. But since there is that law, I think first it is necessary to take a stand (guess) on the real degree of relative strength of the Santa Anita Derby exacta.

Then, depending on the answer to that, I think it becomes a potentially intriguing much deeper than average field of the sort that can be called "a good gambler's race" with a lot of multi-handed ("on the one hand, on the other hand, on yet another hand.") contenders who probably do belong in the gate to see what they've got. Some of which could either be very live to get their picture taken at double digits, or could be nowhere near the wire. Since it would give me a very bad case of indigestion to be rooting for a Baffert entry, I have one in mind for taking a shot among those possibly live double digit types. But I'll wait a bit to see more of him moving over the eccentric Churchill main track surface before making him my shot.

Since I had a little too much time on my hands this week, I did some playing around that I'll post separately below, with comparative final times adjusted (somewhat crudely) to a common par based on historical (10 years where practical) context for the major > 8.5f preps, and also with cooking up some of my own witches brew numbers involving weighted combinations of final prep speed figures (using Beyer numbers) and distance pedigree numbers to bake a theoretical (fast+far*2) rating. And you should pay about as much attention to that as any other random noise for which you have equally little information on methodology.