No Safety/No Overtime Superbowl bets out. Wizard what will you do?

Quote: DJTeddyBear

If you want, I'll double check it for you. I'm staying at GN tonight...

That's okay. I already had somebody bet it for me at -700.

Quote: Wizard

I had my scout put $700 on the no safety and I'm sure I'll go higher. This of course happens right after I lay -800 with DJTeddyBear.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

There's a long story involved in that -800 bet. I'll type it once I get home and off my iPhone.

Well, I'm home. Here's the story.

I was in Vegas last week for the Cutting Edge Table Games show. As is their habit, Galaxy Gaming had a party at their office on night during the show. While I was hanging with Mike, he started proposing various Waitress Trivia bets.

At some point during our conversation, I reminded him of the night four (five?) years ago, where he and I and a couple other WOV members had dinner at Buca de Beppo followed by gambling across the street at Terribles. Mike lost his shirt, and the other members and I made a pact to never mention just how much it was.

Of course, what I didn't realize at the time, but mentioned last week was, he was working their loss rebate program. So although the loss was a tidy sum, it was an advantage play (although I never asked how the rebate aspect worked out).

But that loss was nothing compared to the fortune lost on the No Safety bet in the 2014 Super Bowl.

Now here's the interesting part.

That was the year the game was at the Meadowlands, some 15 miles from where I live. My brother lives even closer. He had to be in Vegas the following week for a convention, but because of all the out-of-owners that were flying out after the Superbowl, the best flight to Vegas he got was Saturday. So, thinking about Mike's well publicized "bridge jumper bet" on the No Safety, I asked my brother to put $10 on the Yes Safety while he was there.

If my memory is correct, the first score of that game was a safety. Or at least one of the first.

So last week, after talking briefly about that Terribles loss, I mentioned the $10 bet my brother made for me.

He was not pleased. He uttered phrase "We can't be friends anymore." I, of course, was mixed between being devastated and wondering how serious he was.

He quickly let me off the hook by offering me the chance to make that bet with him. "After all," he said, "I'd rather lose to a friend than a casino."

So he said he'd take as much action as I'd be comfortable with, at 8 to 1, mentioning that he thinks that's the right odds. I'm such a non-sports bettor that I actually had to verify that that means if I put up $10, he's putting up $80. So after thinking about it a minute, I said I'd be happy to risk $100. It's a bet.



Morbid curiosity forced me to get a copy of the Superbowl L Pro Football Championship 50 sheet from the sports book while I was at the Golden Nugget.



Mike: I'm willing to revise our bets. The GN sheet indicates that the No Safety is -700 as you said in your post. Also the Yes Safety is only +450. Not only did you give me the wrong odds, there's no reason we need to include the vig in the bet. Let's make it 575.

There are two more bets on that sheet that interest me. Yes Overtime and Yes 2pt Conversion. I admit they are stupid long shots, and I think that you'd probably be looking at the No if you're interested at all. I'll go $100 on either or $50 on each.

GN has overtime at Yes +550, No at -800. Wanna do it at 675?

And the 2pt conversion is at Yes +250, No at -330. How about 290?

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Mike: I'm willing to revise our bets. The GN sheet indicates that the No Safety is -700 as you said in your post. Also the Yes Safety is only +450. Not only did you give me the wrong odds, there's no reason we need to include the vig in the bet. Let's make it 575.

Thanks for the offer. In retrospect, I could have bargained for better odds. However, I was on my 4th or 5th glass of wine by that point and didn't feel like haggling on the odds. Alcohol is no excuse though. In the interests of the sanctity of the bet, I'll decline your kind offer. However, if you feel you over-bet, due to your own inebriation, I will agree to lower the bet size to whatever you wish.

Quote:

There are two more bets on that sheet that interest me. Yes Overtime and Yes 2pt Conversion. I admit they are stupid long shots, and I think that you'd probably be looking at the No if you're interested at all. I'll go $100 on either or $50 on each.

GN has overtime at Yes +550, No at -800. Wanna do it at 675?

And the 2pt conversion is at Yes +250, No at -330. How about 290?

Yes! I'll lay both those prices. Why don't you PM me on the bet amounts.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Mike: I'm willing to revise our bets. The GN sheet indicates that the No Safety is -700 as you said in your post. Also the Yes Safety is only +450. Not only did you give me the wrong odds, there's no reason we need to include the vig in the bet. Let's make it 575.

Thanks for the offer. In retrospect, I could have bargained for better odds. However, I was on my 4th or 5th glass of wine by that point and didn't feel like haggling on the odds. Alcohol is no excuse though. In the interests of the sanctity of the bet, I'll decline your kind offer. However, if you feel you over-bet, due to your own inebriation, I will agree to lower the bet size to whatever you wish.



Yes! I'll lay both those prices. Why don't you PM me on the bet amounts.

You guys could split the difference in the price.

5th glass of wine?
I thought I was the only one who opens a bottle and sticks a straw in it :)

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Wizard

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Mike: I'm willing to revise our bets. The GN sheet indicates that the No Safety is -700 as you said in your post. Also the Yes Safety is only +450. Not only did you give me the wrong odds, there's no reason we need to include the vig in the bet. Let's make it 575.

Thanks for the offer. In retrospect, I could have bargained for better odds. However, I was on my 4th or 5th glass of wine by that point and didn't feel like haggling on the odds. Alcohol is no excuse though. In the interests of the sanctity of the bet, I'll decline your kind offer. However, if you feel you over-bet, due to your own inebriation, I will agree to lower the bet size to whatever you wish.

Yes! I'll lay both those prices. Why don't you PM me on the bet amounts.

You guys could split the difference in the price.

Reread the part of my post that you quoted.

I DID offer to split the difference. Not merely the diff between the 800 he offered and the 700 that the Golden Nugget offers, but between the 700 and 450 the GN has for the No vs Yes.

Mike: ok. Further conversation will be via PM.

I saw that one team has had a safety in 3 consecutive games. Didn't catch who the team was though.

I just realized I was only on page 13, it was 2009 ... reading like it was all current LOL

Quote: odiousgambit

I just realized I was only on page 13, it was 2009 ... reading like it was all current LOL

The Seahawks are an interesting example of the volatility in today's game. Last night, they gave up a safety, and failed on two, two-point conversions. While the math made sense in the situation, the safety and the two "missed" extra points made a big difference at the end of the game when Seattle needed two scores instead of one tie.

It wasn't too long ago that they were the ones getting the safeties.

I paid a forum member to record every score for this season. So I should have updated safety and two-point conversion figures sometime this week.

Quote: Wizard

I paid a forum member to record every score for this season. So I should have updated safety and two-point conversion figures sometime this week.

Ahhh damn. I missed the job posting for that.

Quote: GWAE

Ahhh damn. I missed the job posting for that.

Consider yourself lucky. It means you don't have to watch the 49'ers play. heheh

Quote: Ayecarumba

Consider yourself lucky. It means you don't have to watch the 49'ers play. heheh

good one.