No Safety/No Overtime Superbowl bets out. Wizard what will you do?
"Will there be a safety" and "Will there be overtime," both lined at No/-900 and Yes/+600.
???
Quote: djatcFrom LVA -
"Will there be a safety" and "Will there be overtime," both lined at No/-900 and Yes/+600.
???
obvious put down $900 to win $100 on no safety
Quote: 100xOddsobvious put down $900 to win $100 on no safety
Stupid bet. You'll be able to get a much better price later
Quote: FroggerStupid bet. You'll be able to get a much better price later
lol.. of the 2 options given to me by the OP, that's what I would choose.
last year, didn't the Wiz put $1000 to win $100 on no safety??
so how much better would the pricing be?
Quote: 100xOddslast year, didn't the Wiz put $1000 to win $100 on no safety??
so how much better would the pricing be?
I believe I bet $8,000 to win $1,000. Plus more against BBB.
This year I'm hoping to see -600 at the last minute, after the squares pour into town and bet the YES.
The South Point casinos have been taking bets on this since at least October. As I recall, the NO has been about -900, but give it time.
Given recent trends, what would be the fair line?Quote: WizardI believe I bet $8,000 to win $1,000. Plus more against BBB.
This year I'm hoping to see -600 at the last minute, after the squares pour into town and bet the YES.
The South Point casinos have been taking bets on this since at least October. As I recall, the NO has been about -900, but give it time.
Quote: AyecarumbaGiven recent trends, what would be the fair line?
Given recent trends, YES SAFETY should be -200
Quote: djatcI will bet the seahawks moneyline, and no overtime always.
I'm not always up to date on my football statistics, but I don't exactly recall very many (any) super bowls going to overtime? When was the last time, or how many times in the last 10 years has that happened? To me (amateur sports better) off the top the "No Overtime" I would think to be handicapped a bit more even (like -1500).
Quote: thecesspitNo superbowl has ever gone to OT as far as I know.
It's due then!
Quote: thecesspitNo superbowl has ever gone to OT as far as I know.
That's correct, it never has gone to OT.
Even a millionaire player can't turn down 30 billion for that.
Quote: WizardI've been keeping track of every NFL score since the 2000 season. Here is some data on safeties, through the wild card week of this season.
I should be noted that the four Superbowl safeties since 2000 were in the 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons. In other words, four of the last six Superbowls have had a safety. If we go by the overall average of a probability of 6.23% in all games, the probability of four or more in six games is 1 in 4,888.
The question remains, is this just a fluke, or is there something about Superbowls that are more likely to produce a safety?
Personally, I lean towards fluke and will be betting the no safety again this year to show my confidence in this opinion.
I think it is just a fluke. Safeties generally happen because of a special teams mismatch. Blocked punts give a safety. Pinning an offense deep off a good punt can result in a blocked punt, end-zone sack, or holding/intentional grounding in the end zone because of being pinned deep.
As all of these things are less likely in a good team, even when they are playing a better team, there is no reason a safety should be more likely in the Superbowl.
That's obviously a joke, however even on a smaller scale certainly the line would change or they would reduce the limit or stop talking action altogether. Their would possibly be an investigation and the sports books wouldn't pay.Quote: sc15If i had the bankroll I'd bet 10 billion on yes safety for +600 or whatever, and then pay 30 billion to one of the players to make the safety.
Even a millionaire player can't turn down 30 billion for that.
Quote: WizardI've been keeping track of every NFL score since the 2000 season. Here is some data on safeties, through the wild card week of this season.
Part of Season Games Games with Safety Safety Ratio All games 3,978 248 6.23% Regular season 3,821 232 6.07% All postseason 157 16 10.19% Post season except Superbowl 143 12 8.39% Superbowl 14 4 28.57%
I should be noted that the four Superbowl safeties since 2000 were in the 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons. In other words, four of the last six Superbowls have had a safety. If we go by the overall average of a probability of 6.23% in all games, the probability of four or more in six games is 1 in 4,888.
The question remains, is this just a fluke, or is there something about Superbowls that are more likely to produce a safety?
Personally, I lean towards fluke and will be betting the no safety again this year to show my confidence in this opinion.
How confident?
$2.4M confident? :)
C'mon, don't you know how to recognize a streak when you see one?Quote: WizardI should be noted that the four Superbowl safeties since 2000 were in the 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons. In other words, four of the last six Superbowls have had a safety.
ALL IN ON THE SAFETY THIS YEAR
Quote: FroggerI don't think its a fluke. Take the safety last year...the first snap for the Broncos. That was clearly due to nerves on the center. It was due to the big game factor of the super bowl. The center wouldn't have messed up like that in any other game
I thought these guys were supposed to be professionals.
Quote: WizardI thought these guys were supposed to be professionals.
Professional big boys playing a game, to which the Superbowl is the pinnacle of their profession. Hence why most AP's even say "I still get adrenaline every time I place a max bet." It's what you play the game for, which gets your heart racing and nerves going. Happens to the best of us =).
Quote: speedycrapBetting no OT is way better than no safety.
Personally I agree with this. I'm quite surprised to see they're the same odds (give no Superbowl game has ever gone to OT).
Quote: DRichI think a Super Bowl is a lot more likely to go to overtime than a regular season game. I believe teams will play more conservatively towards the end of the game if they can tie up the Super Bowl. Most games in the regular season have very little at stake and won't get nearly the criticism as the Super Bowl.
Yes, but only if they're even in the position to make the decision between tying and winning the game... and at that point there's still a choice (while I agree more coaches would be conservative, you never know).
Based on these averages, the fair line for an overtime is 1479 and for a safety is 1504.
However, the probability of overtime is highly correlated to a low spread. I bet the no overtime every year as well and there have been quite a few close calls. I recall one year where the Patriots kicked a field goal in the last seconds that would have sent the game to overtime had they missed.
The relatively recent change in the overtime rules to eliminate "sudden death" has changed the game though. I would think it makes it more likely to occur, since coaches are less likely to gamble in the closing seconds of regulation if they know they won't be eliminated by a coin flip and a field goal.
Quote: AxelWolfThat's obviously a joke, however even on a smaller scale certainly the line would change or they would reduce the limit or stop talking action altogether. Their would possibly be an investigation and the sports books wouldn't pay.
Yeah, but could you imagine how funny it would be when the QB gets snapped the ball, and just runs backwards with it to their own endzone and then spikes it like he made a touchdown?
I wouldn't approach the QB with this scheme. They have too much to lose. I think the center would be the weak link. One errant snap is all it takes...Quote: sc15Yeah, but could you imagine how funny it would be when the QB gets snapped the ball, and just runs backwards with it to their own endzone and then spikes it like he made a touchdown?
Quote: sc15Yeah, but could you imagine how funny it would be when the QB gets snapped the ball, and just runs backwards with it to their own endzone and then spikes it like he made a touchdown?
This reminds me of the one-point safety rule in College Football. If the kicking team, for whatever reason, retreats 90 yards in the wrong direction and then downs the ball in their own end zone, it's 1 point for the defense. It's the only way a score of "1" can be achieved.
What would the line be on THAT?
Quote: DeucekiesThis reminds me of the one-point safety rule in College Football. If the kicking team, for whatever reason, retreats 90 yards in the wrong direction and then downs the ball in their own end zone, it's 1 point for the defense. It's the only way a score of "1" can be achieved.
What would the line be on THAT?
I believe this happened last year in one of the bowl games. I had never seen it before and assumed it was going to be a 2 point safety.
Quote: Wizard
However, the probability of overtime is highly correlated to a low spread. I bet the no overtime every year as well and there have been quite a few close calls. I recall one year where the Patriots kicked a field goal in the last seconds that would have sent the game to overtime had they missed.
I've been surprised ever since watching super bowls that there hasn't been an OT game. Just like lion share getting hit, it will eventually happen. But the no overtime is defonitely a good bet. In the last 45 years even the pro bowl has only went to OT twice.
In the games that did go into overtime is there any correlation to that and the spread? I would assume it would happen more often with equally matched teams.Quote: WizardIn the 3,978 NFL game played since 2000, there have been 252 that went into overtime and 248 with a safety. Remarkable how close they are, and I'm sure explains why the lines tend to be similar.
Based on these averages, the fair line for an overtime is 1479 and for a safety is 1504.
However, the probability of overtime is highly correlated to a low spread. I bet the no overtime every year as well and there have been quite a few close calls. I recall one year where the Patriots kicked a field goal in the last seconds that would have sent the game to overtime had they missed.
Quote: DRichI believe this happened last year in one of the bowl games. I had never seen it before and assumed it was going to be a 2 point safety.
Not quite. What happened in the Fiesta Bowl was the defense getting the ball, then downing it in the end zone. What I'm talking about is the kicking team keeping the ball and going the wrong direction to the other end zone. That's never happened, and never would happen unless someone was paid off.
Quote: DeucekiesNot quite. What happened in the Fiesta Bowl was the defense getting the ball, then downing it in the end zone. What I'm talking about is the kicking team keeping the ball and going the wrong direction to the other end zone. That's never happened, and never would happen unless someone was paid off.
In theory it could happen without rigging. Say kick gets blocked and defense nearly returns it all the way for 2 points. Kicking team then strips the ball just before it goes into their own zone. They recover the fumbled ball in their own end zone and get tackled.
Will this scenario actually happen in our lives, or as long as the rule exists? Probably not. I attended Northwestern at Notre Dame this year. I was shocked that I actually saw a defensive 2 point conversion in person. That and other blunders cost Notre Dame the game in overtime.
Quote: DeucekiesNot quite. What happened in the Fiesta Bowl was the defense getting the ball, then downing it in the end zone. What I'm talking about is the kicking team keeping the ball and going the wrong direction to the other end zone. That's never happened, and never would happen unless someone was paid off.
There's another, more plausible way - if the defense, for example, blocks an extra point attempt and runs the ball back to the kicking team's 5-yard line, but then fumbles, a kicking team's player picks up the ball at the 1, runs back into the end zone to avoid a tackle, and gets tackled (or somebody commits, say, an illegal block) in the end zone.
(Tringlomane - if the defense fumbles the ball and it enters the end zone before the offense picks it up, and they are tackled there, it is a touchback, not a safety; this is similar to when someone intercepts a ball in his own end zone and downs it. It is only a safety if the team defending that end zone was responsible for the ball entering it.)
This used to be possible in high school as well, but since extra points cannot be returned by the defense (except in Texas and Massachusetts - long story), it would have to be an offensive player running the ball all the way back into his own end zone. However, last year, the national rules committee changed the rules so that only the team that scored the touchdown can score on an extra point (this includes a situation where a fumbled PAT somehow ends up in the kicking team's end zone and the defense falls on it).
Quote: tringlomaneIn theory it could happen without rigging. Say kick gets blocked and defense nearly returns it all the way for 2 points. Kicking team then strips the ball just before it goes into their own zone. They recover the fumbled ball in their own end zone and get tackled.
I thought about that, but wasn't sure if the ball would still be live in that situation. That would be more likely to happen.
Quote: SOOPOOI am assuming you cannot parlay "Yes safety, no OT" or "No safety, yes OT"? They seem very correlated.....
You strictly can't parlay props except on parlay cards.
Quote: AxelWolfIn the games that did go into overtime is there any correlation to that and the spread? I would assume it would happen more often with equally matched teams.
That is absolutely the case.
Also are there any great prop bets not having anything to do with the outcome of the game (such as weather, length of national anthem, whether or not bands will sing their hits in a certain order, etc?)
Quote: tringlomaneCollege should probably ban the defensive scores like the nfl does.
I disagree. I am still waiting for the caoch smart enough to take a knee instead of kicking extra point or trying 2 point conversion when up by one with a second or two to go in the game....
Quote: SOOPOOI disagree. I am still waiting for the caoch smart enough to take a knee instead of kicking extra point or trying 2 point conversion when up by one with a second or two to go in the game....
Would be a horrible move. The clock does not run on a conversion.
Quote: djatcAlso are there any great prop bets not having anything to do with the outcome of the game (such as weather, length of national anthem, whether or not bands will sing their hits in a certain order, etc?)
Bovada always has lots of them. I would expect one this year on whether Katie Perry sprays whip cream from her bra during the halftime show.
A controversial one, that was discussed here, was on whether or not Madonna would wear fishnet stockings. She actually wore fishnet pantyhose. How do you grade that one?
Quote: SOOPOOI disagree. I am still waiting for the caoch smart enough to take a knee instead of kicking extra point or trying 2 point conversion when up by one with a second or two to go in the game....
I have seen teams take a knee after scoring a touchdown with no time on the clock and the team ahead by 1 or 2. In fact, the only time when they are even allowed to have an extra point with no time remaining in the fourth quarter is if neither team is ahead by 3 or more; this is why they did not have one at the end of the 2013 Iron Bowl.
In one case that I can remember, the team scored with no time left, ran into the locker room to celebrate, had to bring 11 back out onto the field for the extra point (since the defense could still tie/win), and took a knee.
However, you did say that there would be one or two seconds left, and while I have never seen it happen, there is a case where this would be a smart move; when the team is ahead by 9 or 10. The other team is not going to score two touchdowns in one or two seconds, barring a freak series of penalties that extends the game with untimed downs, and by taking a knee, you don't risk the opponents scoring and then being behind by only 7 or 8, and your team kicking off.
With a 1-point lead and seconds remaining, you almost certainly go for 2, since a 2-point lead is no better than a 1-point lead. Taking a knee, or even going for 1, opens the door for a kicking-team penalty (e.g. clipping) on the return that puts the other team in field goal range with one play added to the end of the game.
Quote: ThatDonGuyI have seen teams take a knee after scoring a touchdown with no time on the clock and the team ahead by 1 or 2. In fact, the only time when they are even allowed to have an extra point with no time remaining in the fourth quarter is if neither team is ahead by 3 or more; this is why they did not have one at the end of the 2013 Iron Bowl.
In one case that I can remember, the team scored with no time left, ran into the locker room to celebrate, had to bring 11 back out onto the field for the extra point (since the defense could still tie/win), and took a knee.
However, you did say that there would be one or two seconds left, and while I have never seen it happen, there is a case where this would be a smart move; when the team is ahead by 9 or 10. The other team is not going to score two touchdowns in one or two seconds, barring a freak series of penalties that extends the game with untimed downs, and by taking a knee, you don't risk the opponents scoring and then being behind by only 7 or 8, and your team kicking off.
With a 1-point lead and seconds remaining, you almost certainly go for 2, since a 2-point lead is no better than a 1-point lead. Taking a knee, or even going for 1, opens the door for a kicking-team penalty (e.g. clipping) on the return that puts the other team in field goal range with one play added to the end of the game.
Actually, now that you mention it, if you're ahead by 9+ points, the best play is to stand there and watch the other team score a touchdown + 2 point conversion uncontested.
Even though a freak series of penalties is highly unlikely, watching them get 8 points still guarantees you a win.
Quote: sc15Actually, now that you mention it, if you're ahead by 9+ points, the best play is to stand there and watch the other team score a touchdown + 2 point conversion uncontested.
Even though a freak series of penalties is highly unlikely, watching them get 8 points still guarantees you a win.
Didn't that happen a few Super Bowls ago? Patriots v Giants.
Quote: DeucekiesDidn't that happen a few Super Bowls ago? Patriots v Giants.
No, the Patriots voluntarily relinquished the lead there.
Quote: wikipediaWith the Patriots down to their last timeout and ahead by two points, 17–15, the possibility existed that the Giants would run a play to stop short of the goal line, which would have forced the Patriots to use that timeout to stop the clock on any of the last two plays. The Giants could run the clock down, allow Tynes—who had not missed under 30 yards in four years—to kick a winning field goal, and give the Patriots only about 20 seconds of play left to score again. This also meant that the Patriots could call a defensive play where they would purposely allow the Giants to score a touchdown, which despite giving up the lead would allow the Patriots to get the ball back without the timeout and with more time remaining. New England chose to let New York score, opening its defense to let Bradshaw enter the end zone with the ball. In what Sports Illustrated later called "perhaps the strangest play in Super Bowl history", Bradshaw attempted to stop on the 1-yard line upon realizing what the Patriots were doing, but his forward momentum caused him to fall into the end zone for a touchdown.[71][72][73] The intentionally surrendered touchdown gave the Patriots 57 seconds to score again, and they went into their final drive trailing by a 21–17 count after the Giants failed to convert a two-point play.[74]
I don't think being up by nine+ and automatically letting the other team score with time expiring has ever happened.
Quote: WizardBovada always has lots of them. I would expect one this year on whether Katie Perry sprays whip cream from her bra during the halftime show.
A controversial one, that was discussed here, was on whether or not Madonna would wear fishnet stockings. She actually wore fishnet pantyhose. How do you grade that one?
I'd say that would count, if they'd have worded the prop, "Fishnet leggings," wouldn't either qualify?
Do you think they'll have a Line as to whether or not Katy Perry will have a, "Wardrobe Malfunction?" Granted, that's only happened once, but there have only been a handful of Super Bowls which have featured a performer for which such a malfunction was a reasonable possibility.
Quote: ThatDonGuyI have seen teams take a knee after scoring a touchdown with no time on the clock and the team ahead by 1 or 2. In fact, the only time when they are even allowed to have an extra point with no time remaining in the fourth quarter is if neither team is ahead by 3 or more; this is why they did not have one at the end of the 2013 Iron Bowl.
In one case that I can remember, the team scored with no time left, ran into the locker room to celebrate, had to bring 11 back out onto the field for the extra point (since the defense could still tie/win), and took a knee.
However, you did say that there would be one or two seconds left, and while I have never seen it happen, there is a case where this would be a smart move; when the team is ahead by 9 or 10. The other team is not going to score two touchdowns in one or two seconds, barring a freak series of penalties that extends the game with untimed downs, and by taking a knee, you don't risk the opponents scoring and then being behind by only 7 or 8, and your team kicking off.
With a 1-point lead and seconds remaining, you almost certainly go for 2, since a 2-point lead is no better than a 1-point lead. Taking a knee, or even going for 1, opens the door for a kicking-team penalty (e.g. clipping) on the return that puts the other team in field goal range with one play added to the end of the game.
Just to clear some of this up, in the NFL a PAT (extra point kick or 2 point attempt ) is mandatory after every regulation touchdown. This is required due to playoff tiebreakers which can come down to point differential. Also in the NFL, the defensive team cannot score on a PAT attempt. If the kick is blocked then the ball is dead. If the offense goes for 2 points and the ball is fumbled or intercepted then the play is also dead. Time does not run off the clock during a PAT attempt.
College rules are different. Defenses can return kicks for points. Also in college, the PAT is not required when there is no time left on the clock and the team is ahead by more than two points. If the defensive team is losing by 1 or 2 then the PAT must be attempted since a kick could theoretically be blocked and returned for points in college.
