First Saturday in May

Quote: DrawingDead

Khozan = 1 to 20.

Easy money. Looked like an aggressive workout for him. Where does he go next? Pletcher (or the owners) probably do not want to put Istaknockout vs Khozan in the Florida Derby. Maybe they will play it safe/sensible and put him in a easier spot like the 1 1/16 mile Rebel in 3 weeks. We shall see....
*Edit to add: Just saw DD's Pletcher quote. He has so many they just have to run against each other.
----------

Result:
Aqueduct race #1 - Net Gain won by a neck over Uninfluenced.
----------

Monday 2/23:
Parx race #6 (MSW 1mile 70yards)
7 - Old Mountain Lane (Wynn 200/1)
- The morning line looks a tad off on this one. Anything above even money on this Pletcher runner would be surprising. 2nd to Itsaknockout and J S Bach in his last two races.

One minute to post in the Southwest, and I thought Bold Conquest was worth a small sporting wager across the board while taking only 12% of the money on the nose and < 10% in the place/show pools, as one of only 2 true routers in the field, but concerned about his possible lack of tactical speed on this track.

RE: More jibber-jabber on slow Fountain of Youth time, speculation (guesswork)

I recall that the forcast on Saturday for the Gulfstream Park area called for dry but windy/breezy conditions. Checking the National Weather Service record I see that near post time they did indeed have 18 mph wind gusting to 26. Besides any direct effect of running in the wind, and affecting their run differently at different points depending on direction in the two-turn race, moisture content is a major factor for the condition of the surface and how well they can get a hold of it in their complex running action. Normally the grounds crew will run equipment around it to work the surface evenly across it and apply water to the dirt track to maintain the surface between races, but with hours between the final two main track races while they were running a series of turf stakes and with the wind over it, I'll speculate that it may have dried out for that race.

An alternate theory/guess would be that these simply were not among the more talented members of their crop. I'm not subscribing to that at this point, but it is a theory that could potentially fit the facts that are known to date.

The soggy Southwest Stakes is being given a Beyer speed figure of 91.



And Mr. Z continues his distinguished career as a professional 2nd & 3rd place finisher, collecting over $500k in purse money, all of it in graded stakes, without winning a single race since breaking his maiden first time out back in June of 2014. I assume that lone first in the maiden race was some kind of an accident, that he didn't yet know where the wire was or something.

Oaklawn Park #9 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (1 1/16mile - 300k)
6 - Far Right (Wynn 70/1,W Hill 50/1,Westgate 60/1) - Wins again @ Oaklawn.
-Due to the slop I will just say I like the top 4 finishers moving forward.

Quote: DrawingDead

The soggy Southwest Stakes is being given a Beyer speed figure of 91.
And Mr. Z continues his distinguished career as a professional 2nd & 3rd place finisher, collecting over $500k in purse money, all of it in graded stakes, without winning a single race since breaking his maiden first time out back in June of 2014. I assume that lone first in the maiden race was some kind of an accident, that he didn't yet know where the wire was or something.

Half-a-mil sure does buy a lot of hay and oats. He does seem to slow down when he gets the lead down the stretch. This quirky, well seasoned (or maybe over-raced), and speedy colt is starting to grow on me for some reason. He really has not run a terrible race and has tremendous pace ability.

What other 3yo has shown the ability to flash speed and carry-on towards the end? Maybe El Kabeir?
I am just not really seeing the speedy colts so far this year. American Pharoah, Lord Nelson, Khozan, J S Bach may be able change that opinion in future races. I am not really looking for a front runner to win the Derby, but noticing very few contenders with pace making speed.
----------

Slow week ahead for 3yo races, but the 3rd Derby pool and only Oaks pool will open next weekend. The John Battaglia Memorial (non points earning) will be run @ Turfway on Sat 28th. The Great War is entered for the race.

I wonder if anyone has ever become a million dollar stakes earner without winning at least one of them? If anyone could manage to do that it seems Mr. Z should be the one to find a way.

I've brought Far From Over into my stable of future book "win the Derby" wagers. Not that I imagine anyone but my creditors should care about my wagers, but since I put up this thread I think I should continue to disclose my Derby future tickets so people have a fair opportunity to ridicule them mercilessly in about two months and change. Seems that should be the natural price for making an early Derby discussion or future wager thread.

The list of my straight win wagers, for varying amounts & some on multiple tickets booked at different times, is now:

• Bolo
• Carpe Diem
• Far From Over
• Frosted
• Imperia
• Itsaknockout
• Khozan
• Lord Nelson

All are locked in at prices of at least 25/1 or greater, ranging up to 100/1. Of these I think Frosted and Imperia are the two that are now probably worth less than I paid for them, and I remain more than satisfied with the value of the tickets I have on the other six. I already have a couple more betting interests involved in futures than what I usually end up with for this in most years. I'm okay with that so long as the value proposition on each individual ticket makes sense to me.

I also have Texas Red and The Great War tied up with these in various combinations, some also involving the "field" and some not, from the Churchill parimutual Pool #2, where I found some exactas offering some enhanced value compared to the implied probabilities from straight win odds. I'm willing to trade Texas Red for some Palms car wash tokens.

Pool #3 this coming weekend may be interesting. There's not a lot of sources of potential volatility in the wagering market that I'm seeing on the schedule during the three day window the pool will be open. I'm willing to take a stand (again) against some nice talented and accomplished colts that I think will be taking significant action, but which I do not believe are potentially mile and a quarter colts. I'm particularly looking to play against some likely favorites in the Pool #3 exactas, where some heavily backed combinations seem to take disproportionate money when tied up with each other and the field.

I have nothing doing at all for potentially playing in the Oaks pool.

Quote: DrawingDead

-edited-

Frosted

Imperia
All are locked in at prices of at least 25/1 or greater, ranging up to 100/1. Of these I think Frosted and Imperia are the two that are now probably worth less than I paid for them, and I remain more than satisfied with the value of the tickets I have on the other six. I already have a couple more betting interests involved in futures than what I usually end up with for this in most years. I'm okay with that so long as the value proposition on each individual ticket makes sense to me.
-edited-

Interesting that both Godolphin colts under-performed recently. Both still can make the gate, as there are numerous other preps left. Maybe the hunch play is to bet Maftool or even Mubtaahij? One or both could certainly run in May for the royal family of Dubai.
----------

Monday 2/23 result:
Parx race #6 (MSW 1mile 70yards)
Mr. Discreet won and Old Mountain Lane (Wynn 200/1) ran 3rd while burning up some cash (not mine - the odds were to low) as the heavy favorite.
----------

Pool 3 projections:
Additions:
Far From Over
War Story
Subtractions:
J S Bach
Gorgeous Bird

-Observation: 3 of the top 5 betting choices from Pool 2 have questions to answer when they return to the track.
Texas Red - healing foot, might return in Santa Anita Derby.
American Pharoah - yet to race since setback, maybe the Rebel.
Carpe Diem - yet to race as a 3yo, probably the Tampa Bay Derby.
----------

Quote: DrawingDead

I have nothing doing at all for potentially playing in the Oaks pool.

Easy no-brainer for me at the moment: Take Charge Brandi. I do wonder if it may be better to wait and bet the Oaks/Derby double with her....

I have mentioned her a number of times, but here is the video (in case anyone actually watches these things) of why I like Take Charge Brandi in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks:

2014 Breeders' Cup 14 Juvenile Fillies (females) (Nov 1, 2014 - race 4 @ Santa Anita) (Final time: 1:41.95)



Santa Anita - Breeders' Cup Juvenile (males) (Nov 1, 2014 - race 8 @ Santa Anita) (Final time: 1:41.91)



- Look at the final times of these races (same track, same day, a few hours apart). TCB has won 3 stakes since the Breeders' Cup. Texas Red finished 2nd in one sprint stakes since (and is now recovering from a foot problem). Texas Red has been talked about as the favorite for the Derby, why shouldn't TCB be given consideration against the boys?

Kentucky Derby Future Pool #3 is out. Link to the live odds (will be available on Friday):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/pool-3-final-odds

Pool #3 lineup w/morning line listed. ( * = new runner )

1. American Pharoah 8-1
2. Bolo 50-1 *
3. CarpeDiem 12-1
4. Danzig Moon 50-1 *
5. Daredevil 30-1
6. Dortmund 8-1
7. El Kabeir 30-1
8. Far From Over 15-1 *
9. Far Right 20-1
10. Firing Line 20-1
11. International Star 20-1
12. Itsaknockout 20-1
13. Keen Ice 50-1 *
14. Khozan 15-1
15. Lord Nelson 30-1
16. Mr. Z 50-1
17. Ocean Knight 15-1
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho 20-1
19. Prospect Park 30-1
20. Texas Red 12-1
21. The Great War 30-1
22. Upstart 15-1
23. War Story 30-1 *
24. Mutuel Field – All Other 3-1

I'm interested in seeing Ocho Ocho Ocho run again as his damsire is a south african stallion who passed away last week of heart failure at the age of 19 (Horse Chestnut). It seems as if he will be a much better broodmare sire than actual sire even though he had a G1 and several G2 performers. Never got the support in the USA.

Any idea where he may start next?

What's striking to me is the relative lack of speed/pace competition if this was the complete and final field for an actual race held tomorrow. Someone would steal it. I think some of this may partly be an unintended side-effect of the relatively new designated-race points system Churchill cooked up, but I hope and expect this won't quite be what the actual starting gate looks like when we get there.

For convenience in case anyone is interested in this element I've inserted the average winning distance derived from the pedigree of each of them.

Quote: Keeneone

Kentucky Derby Future Pool #3 is out. Link to the live odds (will be available on Friday):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/pool-3-final-odds

Pool #3 lineup w/morning line listed. ( * = new runner )

7.0f 1. American Pharoah 8-1
7.6f 2. Bolo 50-1 *
7.9f 3. CarpeDiem 12-1
7.4f 4. Danzig Moon 50-1 *
7.1f 5. Daredevil 30-1
7.0f 6. Dortmund 8-1
7.2f 7. El Kabeir 30-1
8.0f 8. Far From Over 15-1 *
6.5f 9. Far Right 20-1
6.9f 10. Firing Line 20-1
7.4f 11. International Star 20-1
7.5f 12. Itsaknockout 20-1
7.4f 13. Keen Ice 50-1 *
7.6f 14. Khozan 15-1
7.6f 15. Lord Nelson 30-1
7.0f 16. Mr. Z 50-1
7.1f 17. Ocean Knight 15-1
7.3f 18. Ocho Ocho Ocho 20-1
7.2f 19. Prospect Park 30-1
8.0f 20. Texas Red 12-1
7.3f 21. The Great War 30-1
6.9f 22. Upstart 15-1
7.0f 23. War Story 30-1 *
N/A 24. Mutuel Field – All Other 3-1

This is the time of year when we'll begin seeing a lot more public remarks commenting on the likely suitability of Derby prospects based on pedigree. There are varied ways of going about this which can be useful, and mine is not one of the most common, just one that I happen to prefer in part because it is constructed entirely from a meaningfully large and stubbornly objective use of quantitative data, and therefore resists the horsey themed gambler's typical "wishing, hoping, guessing, and believing."

In addition to other potentially useful ways of looking at this question of distance potential and the related likely growth curve, there will also always be some racing or general sports journalists, sometimes individuals published by some of the most widely read publications, which are complete and utter trash. Happens every year, and will happen more frequently as we get closer to the event.

I can explain if someone wants, but briefly for the moment here are a couple of the most common and severely egregious things to avoid: #2) Any purported analysis of pedigree which ignores the 50% which is inherited through the female family; and worse, #1) Something making the most significant reference to the extremely sparse mostly non-inheritable and nearly irrelevant information of the race record of a sire and/or dam (i.e. foolishness like "Touch Gold won the Belmont Stakes!" or "Big Brown was an easy Derby winner!" or "Midnight Lute was a sprinter who never even won around two turns!") rather than the much more extensive and predictive thousands of data points provided by the race records of their offspring. For a boatload of reasons the race records of the sire, dam, grandsires, etc. of a horse are completely, totally, utterly, profoundly irrelevant to a determination of what their progeny will be likely to do, and when one sees someone remarking on that for this purpose to fill column inches somewhere it is a stone cold "tell" that the author has no clue whatsoever what they are doing, and that they can and should be completely ignored.

Or not, as you wish. Good luck.

Quote: Tomspur

I'm interested in seeing Ocho Ocho Ocho run again as his damsire is a south african stallion who passed away last week of heart failure at the age of 19 (Horse Chestnut). It seems as if he will be a much better broodmare sire than actual sire even though he had a G1 and several G2 performers. Never got the support in the USA.

Any idea where he may start next?

He has been training @ Santa Anita and I have read he will enter the San Felipe March 7th @ Santa Anita.

Your recent post reminded me of an earlier post on the AWD numbers you calculate.

Quote: DrawingDead

-edited-
Of the last ten Derby winners, four were graded stakes winners at two, six were at least two year-old graded stakes placed, and eight won or placed in stakes of some level at two when minor ungraded or restricted events are included. The stakes wins and placings at two were in the late season events of October, November, and December such as the Hollywood Futurity and Kentucky Jockey Club, rather than at tracks with major early 2 y/o graded stakes events such as Saratoga. The average number of starts at two among these Derby winners was 3.8, but this number is inflated by two apparent outliers who each had seven 2 y/o starts. Those two shared a peculiarity: They both had done their significant racing as two year-olds on Polytrack, rather than conventional dirt. All the others were at four 2 y/o starts and below, equally distributed between 1 and 4 starts at two. Of the ten, only one had a pedigree that was unsuited to ten furlongs, none were marginally qualified for the distance by the AWD standards I use, and 9 of 10 were clearly very well qualified by this metric for staying 10f or more.
-edited-

Bolding mine
I probably missed this somewhere along the way, but what was/is the minimum AWD for "very well qualified" runners?

Nine came in at 7.3f or greater. California Chrome was 6.8f.

Quote: DrawingDead

Nine came in at 7.3f or greater. California Chrome was 6.8f.

Thanks again.
----------

Some racing this week:

Thur. 2/26 Fairgrounds race #7 (AOC - 50k - 1mile 70yards)
1 - A. Rod Again (Wynn 250/1)
2 - Defondo (Wynn 250/1)
7 - Vici (Wynn 175/1)
----------

Fri. 2/27 Santa Anita race #6 (AOC - 80k - 1 1/16mile)
3 - Eckersley (Wynn 250/1)
4 - Cyrus Alexander (Wynn 40/1,W Hill 40/1,Westgate 75/1)
- Logical next step for Cyrus against winners for the 1st time.
----------

Fri. 2/27 Laurel Park race #9 (AOC - 40k - 1mile)
4 - Ghost Bay (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 125/1)
5 - Top of Mind (Wynn 200/1)
- Both these are working well in Maryland after recent wins.
----------

Sat. 2/28 Turfway Park race #6 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (125k - 1 1/16mile)
3 - Royal Son (Wynn 200/1,W Hill 200/1,Westgate 300/1)
4 - Task Force Glory (Wynn 200/1)
9 - Firespike (Wynn 175/1,W Hill 125/1,Westgate 125/1)
11 - The Great War (Wynn 45/1,W Hill 60/1,Westgate 40/1) - 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Derby pool horse.
- Royal Son is obviously trying something new (blinkers and polytrack) after a disappointing run in the Sam F Davis. The Great War did not get the best post, but good horses can overcome these things (just look @ Ocean Knight). Firespike is a runner with multiple stakes wins and has won on dirt,turf, and sythetic.

Quote: Keeneone

He has been training @ Santa Anita and I have read he will enter the San Felipe March 7th @ Santa Anita.

Thank you.

Ahem.

Texas Red gets more time to heal

Quote: Steve Anderson @Daily Racing Form

“I’ll give him an extra week, and I think with three works, he’ll be fine,” Desormeaux said.

Quote: Google Trainerspeak>>>English translator

I only had the one really good horse in my barn, and he was all of 'em, dammit!

Buh-bye to some of those Pool #2 exactas 'o mine. Hardly had time to know ya. So it goes. And will again before we get there. I expect about 40-50% of my future book tickets to still be live when they load at the gate, and view prices on them accordingly; if any more than that make it to post time for this I'll consider it an exceptionally good year for the Derby futures.

Well now. The Battaglia, with The Great War bet down to thirty-cents on the dollar:



My tentative explanations for that result:

1. One of the reasons The Great War was sent over from Europe was that he was prone to respiratory bleeding. It is possible that he may have bled through Lasix (a diuretic used in part to control that problem, not allowed in Europe). I'm sure they'll "scope" him after the race, and I'll be interested to watch for any reports that may come from that.
   
   Or, what I think is the more likely explanation for his performance:
   
   
2. I was wrong about that horse, and Keeneone's skepticism about his distance proclivity was well founded.

Either way, whether bleeding through Lasix or just short trying to go two-turns, I'd have to consider him a very unlikely Derby candidate now.

But it was all good, since he was bet down way too hard to get even slightly tempted to put money on him today, and of course the needy Todd Pletcher stable did not have nearly enough Derby contenders. I'm not yet sure what I want to think of Royal Son's apparent dramatic form reversal at Turfway. He's absolutely bred for distance, big-time. But with TGW spitting out the bit so conclusively, I don't know what kind he just beat in this.

My most firm opinion about this race: "Pepper Roani" is definitely a better name for a horse than "Goat."

EDIT: Corrected spelling of the pizza topping horse.

Quote: DrawingDead

If your name isn't nailed to the furniture on Derby day, you aren't getting in. Not to sit. Not even "just for a minute." You may or may not be allowed to take a leak in the restroom if you aren't known individually and specifically to the management as a raceplayer who is there for the Derby. The racebook side of the books, which in most places is larger than the sports side, will not be allowing anyone in who does not have their name on a seat which is reserved for them, usually after making arrangements with management for it more than a month in advance for Derby weekend. The sports or boxing kiddies won't be getting in to the racebook areas on those days. At all. And they will throw little hissy fit tantrums when they are told that and escorted out, as they always do, since they don't read and wouldn't follow written directions even if they did. "But I bet FIE-HUNNERT-dollahs on Leroy to kill Bubba!" (worth all of about twenty-bucks in gross revenue before expenses to sell the sports ticket). I strongly suggest folks don't procrastinate beyond early April to make those arrangements if you want to do Derby day in a book, doesn't matter who also thinks they're gonna happen to be punching or bouncing or kicking who or what on that same day.

I have been to the Breeder's Cup party at the Orleans many times, and think they hold one for the Derby too. Put it on in one of their ballrooms with wagering right inside, beats fighting the crowds in the book.

Quote: Johnzimbo

I have been to the Breeder's Cup party at the Orleans many times, and think they hold one for the Derby too. Put it on in one of their ballrooms with wagering right inside, beats fighting the crowds in the book.

You're right of course, for many people that would naturally be the best way for them to go. I knew they almost all put on some version of that every year for both the Derby and Breeders' Cup, but I didn't even think about it, since I'm always in the book, where even a couple of feet of elbow to elbow standing room on that day isn't available if you didn't plan ahead.

For me there are some important practical reasons about the way I wager to absolutely positively want to be in the book to do it, and more specifically at one of the IPT (Individual Player Terminal) seats within the racebook. But most people aren't wagering via IPTs and the things that make that important to me and vital to have reserved for me on that day won't matter to a lot of other folks, and I'm sure the special party atmosphere is a better thing for them. Meanwhile, I'm doing the opposite of throwing a party; for example I informally "train" the regular waitresses in the books I use to please me by staying out of my way and to use the time to serve everybody else. But of course, if you don't need some of the particular equipment that's only in the regular book, then those special occasion Derby events in the ballrooms and whatnot are probably a great thing, and more readily available. Just like they do for NCAA "March Madness" and the Event That Casinos Are Forbidden by the NFL's Lawyers to Call a Super Bowl.

Thanks for pointing it out. It should've been obvious to me when I wrote that reply, but I sometimes forget they are there. You probably helped a silent lurker somewhere who isn't familiar with it.

I haven't added anything new in my straight win interests from Pool #3, but I have been arbitraging some of the exactas again, and have now added Danzig Moon to those tied up in various combinations that way. Given the timing, I think he deserves to be a bit of a price in the pool, as he sure is right now early on the Sunday morning the pool closes, as the longest shot on the tote board at this moment at 67/1, but I think potentially a live longshot. Doesn't hurt to have Mark Casse handling him, as he's got a better than decent record of preparing four-hoofed athletes to get a distance, if they have it in them.

Since Gulfstream has washed out to sea and at last report was sinking below the waves somewhere between Key West and Havana, below I've constructed my own personal "top ten" list of favorite contenders to actually win this thing; my highly personal opinionated judgment list, only moderately seasoned with data, and which in some respects is against the grain of the consensus of opinion in the business at this point. I post it here knowing I'm very likely to think it looks ridiculous after a couple of races in about a week, so I sure don't expect anyone else should treat it with reverence. It is just the sort of silly mischief idle hands get into on a weekend when Aqueduct is frozen over and the stewards at Gulfstream Park are snorkeling in the attic.

1. Carpe Diem
2. Khozan
3. Far From Over
4. Bolo
5. Danzig Moon
6. Itsaknockout
7. Lord Nelson
8. Ocho Ocho Ocho
9. International Star
10. Materiality
    
    "Also-eligible" list:
    
    
11. Cyrus Alexander
12. Gold Shield

So if the likes of American Pharoah, Upstart, or Dortmund get their picture taken nibbling on roses on May 2nd, as many think they will, I am burnt stale toast. And if that comes to pass, with the support of family and friends and a modest amount of professional help and sales of blood plasma I shall find a way to live with that; see: "2014 Breeders' Cup."

Results this week:

Thur. 2/26 Fairgrounds race #7 (AOC - 50k - 1mile 70yards)
Bubba Roan won this @ 60/1!
Defondo (Wynn 250/1) - 2nd.
Vici (Wynn 175/1) - 3rd.
----------

Fri. 2/27 Santa Anita race #6 (AOC - 80k - 1 1/16mile)
Verraco won by a neck.
Cyrus Alexander (Wynn 40/1,W Hill 40/1,Westgate 75/1) - Ran second.
- Another second for C. Alexander. I like his seasoning, consistency, and his competitiveness. He will probably only get one shot at Derby points, so he will have to turn in a big performance. The California contingent of Derby hopefuls is also looking quite competitive.
----------

Fri. 2/27 Laurel Park race #9 (AOC - 40k - 1mile)
4 - Ghost Bay (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 125/1)
5 - Top of Mind (Wynn 200/1)
- Both these are working well in Maryland after recent wins.
No racing due to track conditions/weather.
----------

Sat. 2/28 Turfway Park race #6 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (125k - 1 1/16mile)
Royal Son (Wynn 200/1,W Hill 200/1,Westgate 300/1) - Won, crossing the line first in his young racing career.
The Great War (Wynn 45/1,W Hill 60/1,Westgate 40/1) - Last place
- Nice win for Royal Son, and The Great War had issues. As a non-point earning race it may be best to keep the result in perspective and wait to see where these 2 show up next (Spiral Stakes?).

Quote: Keeneone

Sat. 2/28 Turfway Park race #6 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (125k - 1 1/16mile)
Royal Son (Wynn 200/1,W Hill 200/1,Westgate 300/1) - Won, crossing the line first in his young racing career.
The Great War (Wynn 45/1,W Hill 60/1,Westgate 40/1) - Last place
- Nice win for Royal Son, and The Great War had issues. As a non-point earning race it may be best to keep the result in perspective and wait to see where these 2 show up next (Spiral Stakes?).

This morning it turns out that multiple press accounts are reporting that The Great War did bleed.

Quote: Tom LaMarra, The Blood-Horse

The Great War checked in last; it was found that the colt bled despite having been treated with the anti-bleeding medication furosemide.

BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90393/royal-son-easily-captures-battaglia-memorial#ixzz3T91TCdWw

Of major further interest about that to me is that the official Racing Form and Equibase chart notes state that he bled:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/TP022815USA6.pdf

So it was not something more subtle discovered later by scoping him. In order for that to have gotten noted in the race result chart, he had to have been bleeding profusely enough that he was visibly spraying blood from his nostrils coming off the track to be unsaddled in the paddock, in spite of running on Lasix. And with that comes a buildup of respiratory scar tissue that will tend to further diminish his wind. I'm no vet, just a bettor and appreciative follower of the sport who tries to pay some attention to stuff, and opinions on this sort of thing may often tend to differ, since it comes down to a matter of degree, and I haven't seen anything on how his connections say they are viewing it yet... but I said that to say with a significant episode of respiratory bleeding through Lasix any notion of him going on to the enormous physical stress of a Grade 1 ten furlong race should be off the table, and as far as I'm concerned The Great War is over and done.

The San Felipe Stakes is potentially coming up as a very deep field. I have read possible runners include:
Firing Line, Dortmund (may wait until SA Derby), Prospect Park, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Lord Nelson, and Bolo.

A closer look @ Bolo:
I kinda wish I had made a wager on him back when he was 100/1+ and DDead was mentioning him. The only concern was whether he would actually race on the dirt. I think they know they have a special turf horse here, but the lure of the Derby is drawing them in. This is understandable when you have a talented, nice running 3yo. I have read that V. Espinoza may become his rider for the San Felipe. He has 3 turf races under his belt (2yo season) and he now has 6 published dirt works since last raced in the Eddie Logan Stakes. So we have a fresh horse coming into a big race that has looked like a classic turf presser/closer. With the speedy colts signed up for the San Felipe (Ocho Ocho Ocho, Lord Nelson etc.), I really like him in this race, assuming he officially enters it. Here is his most recent workout: He is the Dark Bay (almost black looking in the video)



I like the look of this colt, and I am glad he may get a chance to try the dirt against a very solid field.

Wow Mr. One, I think you just raised the level of this thread a couple of notches. The 'black-type listed' thread just became a Grade 2. Ferreting out video of morning works. I'd guess something considerably less than 1% of racegoers have ever seen a workout for a racehorse, and that's among the regular bread and butter longtime mainline player crowd, not the one day a year fancy hat race fans.

As I imagine you probably know well, beyond the time on clocker's stopwatches, I think physical observation of how a racehorse is moving over the ground is subtle, hard to describe, difficult for many to learn to pick up, and important. As well as relating it to how the exercise rider is using her/his hands and other cues to urge or not or ask for what as they're doing it. And important becomes absolutely vital as the final goal approaches and they put in some final works on the surface at Churchill. But you knew that.

I saw an interview on HRTV with the owner of Take Charge Brandi the other day. He was brimming with enthusiasm for going to the Rebel with her. And it was not just impulsive talk on his part; he recited chapter and verse of his reasons, and had clearly not just popped off with it when the microphone was put in his face. So if that page isn't in D. Wayne's script, he's probably got some serious diplomacy to do with the gentleman who writes the checks, or a newly edited page to put in it.

Quote: DrawingDead

Wow Mr. One, I think you just raised the level of this thread a couple of notches. The 'black-type listed' thread just became a Grade 2. Ferreting out video of morning works. I'd guess something considerably less than 1% of racegoers have ever seen a workout for a racehorse, and that's among the regular bread and butter longtime mainline player crowd, not the one day a year fancy hat race fans.

To be honest, I was just searching Youtube for a number of horse's past races and happened to notice his workout video. I am glad I did get to watch it. I saw an eager horse run off, slow down when asked, follow his training partner (getting dirt in his face), switch inside towards the rail down the lane, and move smoothly/effortlessly with almost no movement from his rider. I see a fresh, versatile horse, with tactile speed, and proven closing ability down the lane.

I was surprised (not shocked) to see Bolo added to the third Derby pool, and felt he deserved a closer look for his 3yo return.

Quote: DrawingDead

As I imagine you probably know well, beyond the time on clocker's stopwatches, I think physical observation of how a racehorse is moving over the ground is subtle, hard to describe, difficult for many to learn to pick up, and important. As well as relating it to how the exercise rider is using her/his hands and other cues to urge or not or ask for what as they're doing it. And important becomes absolutely vital as the final goal approaches and they put in some final works on the surface at Churchill. But you knew that.

I do try to read the "clocker's notes" in the weeks before the Derby, but so many of them include good/great/awesome comments. It can be difficult to eliminate many runners with the information.

Quote: DrawingDead

I saw an interview on HRTV with the owner of Take Charge Brandi the other day. He was brimming with enthusiasm for going to the Rebel with her. And it was not just impulsive talk on his part; he recited chapter and verse of his reasons, and had clearly not just popped off with it when the microphone was put in his face. So if that page isn't in D. Wayne's script, he's probably got some serious diplomacy to do with the gentleman who writes the checks, or a newly edited page to put in it.

I would love to see TCB run in the Rebel. We will find out in -edited- next week when the entries/post draw happens.
---------

And now the bad news:
The Great War is off the K. Derby trail. From Blood-horse:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90397/the-great-war-no-longer-pursuing-derby

Ok, I'm here:

DD - Great call on The Great War bleeding. You nailed that right on the head.

I made one significant Oaks bet today in the future pool: Callback - $40 at 28-1. My wife wouldn't let me bet the full $100. I'm hoping Brandi runs in the Rebel and Derby, that helps Callback even more.

As for the Derby, the winner is either based out of Cali, or is going to be a big surprise. I'm really anticipating American Pharoah's debut. If I had to pick a winner right now it's him, but just because no one else has impressed me.

Derby season heats up on Saturday, I'm pumped. Saturday is going to be the best day of racing since Breeders'.

Welcome back to the party, Rule. Your complementary themed hat and beer mug set are available over by the bar from the coat check gal.

Quote: FinsRule

...on the head.

Maybe my post about three weeks ago describing him as a fine Derby prospect could be shredded, made into pulp, and added to his feed. If it works, perhaps he could eventually come back to win a turf sprint somewhere at maybe five furlongs or so.

The final closing parimutual odds for the Pool #3 wagering interests:

4/1 Mutual Field (all others)
8/1 American Pharoah
9/1 Dortmund
10/1 Carpe Diem
13/1 Far From Over
13/1 Khozan
14/1 Texas Red
15/1 Upstart
22/1 International Star
23/1 Ocean Knight
24/1 Ocho Ocho Ocho
26/1 Prospect Park
27/1 Keen Ice
29/1 Firing Line
30/1 Itsaknockout
30/1 War Story
31/1 Far Right
34/1 Bolo
39/1 Lord Nelson
42/1 Danzig Moon
43/1 Daredevil
44/1 Mr. Z
47/1 El Kabeir
n/a The Great War

Win pool: $300,403; Exacta pool: $121,927; Pool #3 total wagering: $422,331.

Looks like Danzig Moon took some late money Sunday before the pool closed, and the field didn't quite so much.

TCB will run in the Rebel:
http://www.drf.com/news/take-charge-brandi-face-males-rebel-stakes

Her goal is still the Oaks, according to DW Lucas, probably pending how well she does in this race and her future training. She will also get a jockey change, TBA. 2 Eclipse Champions will race against one another. Wonderful. I hope the race gets a little press and draws some interest from a wider range of fans.

If she wins this race she won't be pointed toward the Oaks.

For the record, I say she finishes 4th. Put me down for a SF - Pharoah / ALL / ALL / Brandi.

Quote: FinsRule

If she wins this race she won't be pointed toward the Oaks.

For the record, I say she finishes 4th. Put me down for a SF - Pharoah / ALL / ALL / Brandi.

It seems a little early for Superfecta projections at this point. Who will be in the field? And why will she only finish in fourth?
----------


Friday 3/6/2015:
Gulfstream Park race #3 Islamorada Handicap (1 1/8mile - 60k)

1 - Tradesman (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 100/1)
2 - High Noon Rider
3 - Quimet
4 - Stanford (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 100/1) - (highweight @ 121lbs)
5 - Lucky Delfino
6 - Materiality (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 125/1)

-Pletcher has 2 runners and both are stretching out for this 2 turn race. Does the PEIC really need another Derby prospect....

Quote:

finish in fourth?

Maybe Mr. Z is entered twice, so two spots on the board right behind the winner are locked up before they open the gate.

RE: The San Felipe

How nice, and surprising. A California Grade 2 that actually is all of that, with a deep field of ten entered which should be quite capable of what they're being asked to do. That rarely happens on that circuit anymore. The field with my AWD numbers and a few notes:

1. Lord Nelson 7.5f
2. Ocho Ocho Ocho* 7.3f
3. Dortmund 7.1f
4. The Gomper 6.9f
5. Kenjisstorm 7.0f
6. Prospect Park 7.2f
7. Bolo** 7.6f
8. Pulmarack 6.5f
9. Sir Samson 7.3f
10. Pain and Misery 6.9f

[EDIT: Corrected typos, #1 AWD & #10 name.]

Notes:

*[Tres Ochos] A little more candor than one usually gets:

Ocho Ocho Ocho set for 3-year-old debut in San Felipe (I'm not sure if the link is behind a DRF subscriber paywall):

Quote: Jay Privman @Daily Racing Form

<SNIP>

But while remaining perfect would be an ideal scenario for Ocho Ocho Ocho, his trainer, Jim Cassidy, cautioned on Wednesday that the San Felipe is a means to an end.

“He’s coming into the race fine. He’s done everything we could have done,” Cassidy said at Clocker’s Corner. “But the plan is for two races before the Derby. I don’t want to knock him out. But if he runs well, that’s okay.”

Cassidy said that recent wet weather compromised the training of Ocho Ocho Ocho coming into the San Felipe.

“I wish we didn’t have the rain. I wish I had a couple more works in him. That would be nice,” Cassidy said. “But it is what it is. The plan has been pretty close to what we wanted.”

<SNIP>

I think Cassidy just told anyone paying attention what not to do with their money this weekend.

**[Bolo] I don't know what time frame DRF uses for compiling the trainer stats printed in the Form. They have Carla Gaines at 8% going turf to dirt. I have her at 35% over a period of years with a flat bet profit.

Quote: DrawingDead

RE: The San Felipe
How nice, and surprising. A California Grade 2 that actually is that, with a deep field of ten entered which should be quite capable of what they're being asked to do. That rarely happens on that circuit anymore. The field with my AWD numbers and a few notes:
1. Lord Nelson 7.6f
2. Ocho Ocho Ocho* 7.3f
3. Dortmund 7.1f
4. The Gomper 6.9f
5. Kenjisstorm 7.0f
6. Prospect Park 7.2f
7. Bolo** 7.6f
8. Pulmarack 6.5f
9. Sir Samson 7.3f
10. Pain and Misery 6.9f
-snip-

You fixed/edited Bob and John (to Pain and Misery) and I had a great joke all lined up about how great he looked in the Wood Memorial, but I digest....

I have handicapped the race a little and I see speed inside. Cassidy's Ocho³ comments plus Lord Nelson in the one hole and I believe these two will be on or near the lead early. This will set up nicely for Dortmund just off the pace and even better for Prospect Park and Bolo from the back. No Firing Line this time for Dortmund to beat.

More from the Department of Undigested Typos - Who's Your Daddy Division: corrected AWD for The Most Noble Lord, Viscount and Baron, The Right Honourable Vice-Admiral, Member of the Ottoman Order of the Crescent, Knight Grand Commander of the Order of St Joachim to 7.5 not 7.6.

Saturday 3/7/2015:

Meydan race#2 Al Bastakiya Stakes (1 3/16mile - 250k)

1 - Ajwad (ARG)
2 - Sir Fever (URU)
3 - Mubtaahij (IRE) - (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 75/1)
4 - Tashbeeh (AUS)
5 - Intenser (IRE)
6 - Quarterback(GER)
7 - High Blade (BRZ) - Non runner

Sir Fever is an undefeated (10 for 10) Uruguayan horse and is the morning line favorite. Mubtaahij is stretching out to his longest distance to date. No Maftool in this one, he is probably waiting until the UAE Derby.

FWIW, since I mentioned it earlier:

Quote: DrawingDead

**[Bolo] I don't know what time frame DRF uses for compiling the trainer stats printed in the Form. They have Carla Gaines at 8% going turf to dirt. I have her at 35% over a period of years with a flat bet profit.

In case it matters to someone here, I think I see the reason for the discrepancy I noted. Using DRF's Formulator database I was able to arrive at the same 8% figure by limiting the time frame to one year, and to increase the win rate for her doing this the longer I went back. My much higher figure was from a larger sample that included races for years farther back than even the maximum in DRF's Formulator.

What becomes apparent looking at it in more detail is that she doesn't do this often, least of all for the top class stock in her barn, she is much more likely to start a young horse in her barn in a common dirt maiden sprint race and then move it to the obviously intended turf, and many times it is apparent that when she has gone turf to dirt it is simply to get rid of something that didn't pan out as one of her turf runners by dumping it in a maiden claiming race. There isn't a meaningful sample for her doing so in stakes (a total of two T>D stakes) and the most notable high level turf to dirt effort I found for her was Big Bane Theory finishing 5th in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. I think either data set has issues when applied to this, and I don't think I'd give much weight to the stat in either direction for this purpose at hand on Saturday.

Result:
Friday 3/6/2015 - Gulfstream Park race #3 Islamorada Handicap (1 1/8mile - 60k)
Materiality (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 125/1) - Won.
Stanford (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 100/1) - Ran second but was disqualified to last.
----------

Khozan has a leg issue:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90506/khozan-injured-off-kentucky-derby-trail
Another Derby Future horse is off the Trail and I lose another future ticket. He had so much potential for this year, but these things happen. Depressing way to start a great weekend of 3yo races.

Quote: DrawingDead

Khozan = 1 to 20.

And out: Khozan, undefeated Pletcher trainee, off Derby trail

Quote: DRF

"We've sent him to Rood & Riddle. I'm waiting for Dr. [Larry] Bramlage's opinion on Monday," said Pletcher.

Quote: Keeneone

Friday 3/6/2015:
Gulfstream Park race #3 Islamorada Handicap (1 1/8mile - 60k)

1 - Tradesman (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 100/1)
2 - High Noon Rider
3 - Quimet
4 - Stanford (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 100/1) - (highweight @ 121lbs)
5 - Lucky Delfino
6 - Materiality (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 125/1)

-Pletcher has 2 runners and both are stretching out for this 2 turn race. Does the PEIC really need another Derby prospect....

Why yes; yes it does:



So while mourning the untimely passing of my Khozan tickets, it was nice of Materiality to buy me lunch, instead of making a fool of me for sliding him onto a ten personal favorite Derby prospects list in preference to some much higher profile contenders. I don't know where Pletcher sends him now. Now he's been nine furlongs and looked like every bit of it with more in the tank, but he'll have exactly one shot to get his qualifying points along with anything he may want to teach him in a race.

Quote: DrawingDead

So while mourning the untimely passing of my Khozan tickets, it was nice of Materiality to buy me lunch, instead of making a fool of me for sliding him onto a ten personal favorite Derby prospects list in preference to some much higher profile contenders. I don't know where Pletcher sends him now. Now he's been nine furlongs and looked like every bit of it with more in the tank, but he'll have exactly one shot to get his qualifying points along with anything he may want to teach him in a race.

I think we were posting at the same time. Interestingly, Materiality is in the exact same spot Khozan was in. He needs a big race in a final prep for points before the Derby.
----------

We have not spoken about the Gotham Stakes yet. It looks very similar to the Jerome Stakes to me. It is El Kabeir's race to win/lose as he has the class advantage over most of them (maybe excluding Classy Class). 3 Pletcher runners entered and coupled together. I like Dontbetwithbruno the most with 3 route races under his belt and Aqueduct inner track experience. Hopefully they run tomorrow (after numerous recent cancellations) in the frigid northeast....

Last but certainly not least....Saturday 3/7

Tampa Bay Downs race #11 - Tampa Bay Derby Grade 2 (1 1/16mile - 350k)
1 - Divining Rod
2 - Ocean Knight
3 - Carpe Diem
4 - Ami's Flatter
5 - My Johnny Be Good
6 - Souper Colossal
7 - Great Stuff
8 - Moonlight Bandit
9 - Danzig Moon

-I have been plugging Carpe Diem for a long time. I really liked his 2yo season and have felt he should be one of the Derby favorites. Although it has been some time since his last race (4+ months), many are hoping for big things from this guy in his 3yo season. He has been working great but is up against a solid field in this event. Unfortunately his odds have never been great for Derby future wagers. This is not always a bad thing when betting futures. IMO, The value has not been there, so I will just have to wait until race day (if he makes it) to get any more money on him. He obviously is not alone in this race and the late addition of Ocean Knight makes for a very good event. I also look forward to the Canadian Bred, Danzig Moon, to face winners and continue stretching out to longer distances. I project a little faster pace for this one (over the Sam F Davis) based on the entrants. The Tampa Bay Derby could be the key race of the weekend, or it could not....We shall see.

San Felipe I like Dortmund, I think Ocho Ocho Ocho is in a pretty bad spot, he either has to go to the lead early or get sandwiched between 2 Baffert horses. I don't see him getting the trip he wants here. If Bolo goes to the lead, like he did his last 2 races, I think he's going to have problems as well. I'm guessing.

1. Dortmund
2. Prospect Park
3. Ocho Ocho Ocho
4. Lord Nelson

The Tampa Bay Derby I'm guessing.

1. Ocean Knight
2. Divining Rod
3. Carpe Diem
4. Ami's Flatter

And for the Gotham, I like El Kabeir for this race, and Tencendur is a horse I've like for a while he's had a couple bullet works coming into this, and I'm hoping he really comes into his own here. I'm guessing.

1. El Kabeir
2. Tencendur
3. Classy Class
4. Lietanant Colonel

Quote: Keeneone

I think we were posting at the same time.

I looked for something from you before I wrote & posted that, since I thought you'd probably already be on it, and yet I see yours is actually time stamped earlier. An odd little forum thing that I've seen before & I don't really get how that happens (since I still didn't see it when mine was up) but of course not important. It can be important for folks generally to re-check things before making a future wager, because I've seen betting interests stay up (and probably take some action) for a while after a wagering interest was out of contention. I don't attribute that to books being nefarious to attract dead money; some of them just have another thing or two or three to keep up with.

This weekend it does start getting more serious, and while the Aqueduct race appears inferior to me both the Tampa & Santa Anita events do look great on paper either as betting races or simply enjoyed as high level professional sporting events with a lot at stake, foe some more than others. Personally I feel a lot more definite about my opinions of who is and is not likely to be a mile and a quarter horse at Churchill than I do about the results of these specific events at this time at today's distance at these tracks. Baffert always works a hole in the wind with his stock, and if one of his doesn't spit some bullets in the morning I assume the poor beast only has three legs attached, but I see a 7f drill in 1:25 & change for Dortmund. Egads. I wouldn't consider betting him at anything close to the likely price, but still. Seven panels is a rare workout anywhere, and when I see a sub-1:26 handle on one of those for anything, anywhere, by anyone I always want to stop and carefully re-evaluate the race.

ADD:

But I'll bite and go ahead with some not at all confident predictions, just for sport, and without regard for wagering value. I may not even bet these, or could conceivably play against them depending on the tote board, relative value in a particular wagering pool, and physical appearance on the track or any scratches affecting the race shape. Besides the deserving heavy favorite (who I don't like for 10f at CD - but this isn't that) I could see any of five possibly getting their picture taken in the San Felipe:

Tampa Bay Derby
1. Carpe Diem
2. Danzig Moon
3. Ocean Knight

San Felipe
1. Dortmund
2. Bolo
3. Lord Nelson

Gotham
I'm hearing a little late buzz going around touting both Lieutenant Colonel, and also to some degree Tencendur with an equipment change (blinkers on followed by sharper works). But I have no idea, and El Kabeir obviously lays over the field strictly on speed figures and accomplishment to date.

ADD again:

Quote: Keeneone

Ocho³

By the way, how do you make the little superscript "3" appear as you just did for Ocho cubed?

Quote: JyBrd0403

San Felipe I like Dortmund, I think Ocho Ocho Ocho is in a pretty bad spot, he either has to go to the lead early or get sandwiched between 2 Baffert horses. I don't see him getting the trip he wants here. If Bolo goes to the lead, like he did his last 2 races, I think he's going to have problems as well. I'm guessing.

1. Dortmund
2. Prospect Park
3. Ocho Ocho Ocho
4. Lord Nelson

I would be surprised if Bolo goes for the lead in this race. It could happen, but I agree with you that it may compromise his chances in here. Turf speed vs. Dirt speed really are two different things. Drawing Dead probably has a better understanding/opinion of this comparison.

Quote: JyBrd0403

The Tampa Bay Derby I'm guessing.

1. Ocean Knight
2. Divining Rod
3. Carpe Diem
4. Ami's Flatter

Logical picks for this one. Ami's Flatter is interesting in here. They are trying all the options for this race: Blinkers on and first Lasix.

Quote: JyBrd0403

And for the Gotham, I like El Kabeir for this race, and Tencendur is a horse I've like for a while he's had a couple bullet works coming into this, and I'm hoping he really comes into his own here. I'm guessing.

1. El Kabeir
2. Tencendur
3. Classy Class
4. Lietanant Colonel

El Kabeir is the one to beat. What, no Pletcher horse in the top 4?

Result
Saturday 3/7/2015: Meydan race#2 Al Bastakiya Stakes (1 3/16mile - 250k)
3 - Mubtaahij (IRE) - (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 75/1) - Won.
2 - Sir Fever (URU) - Ran Second.
-Ajwad probably was the rabbit, Sir Fever was pushed early, but Mubtaahij broke on top, rated perfectly behind the leaders, and finished nicely down the lane. I guess the next stop is the UAE Derby, a rematch with Maftool, and some other runners shipping in from Europe.
----------

Quote: DrawingDead

By the way, how do you make the little superscript "3" appear as you just did for Ocho cubed?

Press and hold Alt key then type 0179

Here is another keyboard Alt code example:
Kentucky Derby is run at a distance of 1 1/4 mile.
or
Kentucky Derby is run at a distance of 1¼ mile. (Alt 0188 for the 1/4 part)

Mubtaahij ran well but the 2nd horse looked decidedly big. I don't think he will be fully ready for the UAE Derby but there you have it. Maftool still has to be a bigger threat even though I believe Mubtaahij is a better horse and will win the UAE Derby.

Just because I'm South African and just because Mubtaahij is trained by a South African, I'm dead happy with my 175/1 ticket.

I can surely have a worse bet standing? :)

Results for Saturday 3/7

Aqueduct race #9 - Gotham Stakes (1 1/16mile - 400k)
El Kabeir won.
-They all came home slow and looked very tired in the heavy going. El Kabeir overcame the high-weight and adopted a new style from well off the pace. I was certainly impressed by his versatility. Still not convinced the New York horses (Jerome/Gotham runners) are in the top tier of Derby hopefuls. Not that they can be ignored, but none would make my personal top ten at the moment. I give JyBrd0403 a lot of credit for the prediction of no Pletcher runners in the top 4.




Tampa Bay Downs race #11 - Tampa Bay Derby Grade 2 (1 1/16mile - 350k)
Carpe Diem - Won.
Ami's Flatter - Ran Second.
-Carpe Diem ran the way you want great horses to win, like a champ. Just off the pace, makes the lead on the far turn, and pulling away to the wire. Ami's Flatter ran big and finished up nicely to earn some nice Derby points. Ocean Knight bounced. CD ran a similar time to Ocean Knight's Sam F Davis (same distance).




Santa Anita race #7 - San Felipe Stakes (1 1/16 - 400k)
Dortmund won, Prospect Park ran second, and Bolo ran 3rd.
Dortmund flat out took this race to the other runners. He was headed again (this time by Bolo) only to come back again down the lane. He seems beatable to me and I have been reluctant to fully support him, yet he continues to win. The pace was quick but did not unfold as I anticipated. Dortmund completed the distance in a faster time (about a half second) than the Robert B Lewis. Ocho³ lost a lot of ground/momentum at the start after getting pinched in by Dortmund and Lord Nelson. Bolo looked super keen to run early, clearly tired late, and probably needed the race. He shifted inside late (because Dortmund came out a little) and that likely cost him the place and some solid Derby points. I just wish he could have rated a little better. I certainly felt his first dirt race was promising, but his connections may see things differently and just move him back to the turf.

Andrew Beyer has given the Gotham a speed figure of 85, the Tampa Bay Derby time got a 98, and the San Felipe got a 104 figure from Beyer.

Quote: Keeneone

-Carpe Diem ran the way you want great horses to win, like a champ. Just off the pace, makes the lead on the far turn, and pulling away to the wire.

Absolutely agree with everything you said here. Great call by you and DD, very impressive race all around. And, 1.43.60 ... wow.

The San Felipe still puzzles me. I can't say if Ocho Ocho Ocho just broke bad or if Smith held him up, but if it was the latter it makes zero sense to me. You could almost hear Garcia and Bejarano laughing. Bolo I thought ran well, better then I thought he would when he went to the front.

El Kabeir, just outclassed the field, pro vs. amateurs.

All in all a very fun Saturday.

4 points:

1. Gotham - Surprised the figure came back so low on El Kabeir. But it's clear he's the only "local" shot in the Wood in 4 weeks. I don't see him as a Derby winner, but I guess I could see him pick up some kind of check.

2. TB Derby - Pletcher doesn't lose in March (except for horses getting injured), so this one was easy to figure. It looked very impressive visually, but the question of course is, who was he facing?

3. San Felipe - I had heard some good things about Bolo and really thought he was going to finish 2nd. Dortmund looks like a serious horse, but he's just so big. I keep hearing the same questions about whether he's too big, and too hard to ride. The one thing that struck me yesterday was one commentator saying he doesn't have a high "cruising speed". But he's a fighter, which everyone knows is important for the Derby. So far his price is looking like it'll be too short for me on Derby Day.

4. Big Cap - I love Shared Belief. I don't think I'm a great handicapper, but yesterday when I saw the late pick-4, I saw a free space at the end, I saw a 2 horse race in the 2nd leg (Kobe's Back never seems to have enough), and I saw 2 races that anyone could win. So my pick-4 was ALL / 4, 7 / ALL / Shared Belief - for $77. And it went 19-1, 9-5, 7-1, 1-5 for a payout of $800. I wish every Saturday was that easy. And Shared Belief just jogged around, what a horse.