First Saturday in May
March 8th, 2015 at 8:27:32 AM
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re: the superscript 3. There is also a formatting code for that on here, which is like this (hit quote to see it, the command is "sup" using brackets to turn it on and off). "sub" works the same way for subscript like this. All FWIW, but I think it's easier to use than remembering the ASCII number.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
March 8th, 2015 at 10:01:18 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsre: the superscript 3. There is also a formatting code for that on here, which is like this (hit quote to see it, the command is "sup" using brackets to turn it on and off). "sub" works the same way for subscript like this. All FWIW, but I think it's easier to use than remembering the ASCII number.
Thanks for the help with thatthough now I'm prolly doomed to spend the rest of the afternoon playing with my new virtual toy.
But I'm sure that won't beannoying at all2.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 8th, 2015 at 12:14:37 PM
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Quote: DrawingDeadAndrew Beyer has given the Gotham a speed figure of 85, the Tampa Bay Derby time got a 98, and the San Felipe got a 104 figure from Beyer.
Beyer speed figures can be challenging to figure out. I know there are many inputs and adjustments, but sometimes they do not make logical sense to me. My overly simplistic view of recent numbers (with a heavy bias towards running times):
Constitution: GP 07 Feb 1 1/8M 113 (final time: 1:49.51)
Materiality: GP 06 Mar 1 1/8M 104 (final time: 1:49.32)
-One of these has to be over-inflated or under-inflated. Did Materiality just run one of the best 3yo races we have seen in only his second start @ 11/8mile? (thanks BBB for the sup tip) And was Materiality's race really just as good as Dortmund's race (see below)?
Khozan: GP 24 Jan 7F 103 (final time: 1:23.63)
Barbados: GP 24 Jan 7F 92 (final time: 1:24.39)
Daredevil: GP 07 Mar 7F 102 (final time: ?)
Ready for Rye: GP 07 Mar 7F 108 (final time: 1:22.39)
-This set makes a little more sense, but how does a 3yo sprint race earn the highest 3yo number so far this year? And was Ready For Rye's race really better than Dortmund's race (see below)?
Dortmund: SA 07 Feb 1 1/16M 104 (final time: 1:42.20)
Dortmund: SA 07 Mar 1 1/16M 104 (final time: 1:41.65)
Improved field, improved running time, improved pacemaking style....why no improvement in his number?
March 8th, 2015 at 12:32:42 PM
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Quote: FinsRule-snip-
4. Big Cap - I love Shared Belief. I don't think I'm a great handicapper, but yesterday when I saw the late pick-4, I saw a free space at the end, I saw a 2 horse race in the 2nd leg (Kobe's Back never seems to have enough), and I saw 2 races that anyone could win. So my pick-4 was ALL / 4, 7 / ALL / Shared Belief - for $77. And it went 19-1, 9-5, 7-1, 1-5 for a payout of $800. I wish every Saturday was that easy. And Shared Belief just jogged around, what a horse.
Nice win on the late Pick 4. Good payout for $0.50 base wager. When someone hits the late Pick 4 I wonder how they did on the Pick 6 @ Santa Anita. I then remember how expensive a Pick 6 ticket is with that many selections.
March 8th, 2015 at 1:26:56 PM
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RE: Beyer or other speed figures
The purpose is to provide a means to adjust for differences in track condition, both for comparison among different tracks, and also importantly at the same track at different times as the "same" racing surface changes. Running a mile & 1/16th in 1:433 (yippee I can finally indicate the traditional racing measurement of fifths) could be a big performance that was very fast on a 'dull' slow drying-out surface on Thursday while a time of 1:424 at the very same track might really be a very slow poor effort on a 'tight' hard-packed surface on Sunday, and sometimes a track can even undergo a major shift in surface condition in the middle of a day of racing.
In any effort to adjust for these differences, whether by Beyer or others, typically one starts with common plain vanilla type races for horses that are very well known established quantities that are largely interchangeable from place to place and day to day such as races for 10k claimers, which are compared to "par" or average times for that class and distance at that track and to the prior performances of those same animals to determine a pattern of variance for that day (or even sometimes a partial day) at that track, and the variant one arrives at, which may be something like "main track was slow by 3/5ths in sprints & slow by 6/5ths in routes" is then applied to the racecard when producing a figure for comparison. It does require judgment in arriving at the variant and sometimes has issues.
I find it is useful for comparing dirt races but should not be used blindly to the exclusion of other factors. And I find it utterly ridiculous and completely without merit in grass racing, which I suspect Beyer and his crew knows, but nowadays has to go ahead and do anyway because the Racing Form pays him and his crew to cook a number for everything that's run at the track regardless.
The purpose is to provide a means to adjust for differences in track condition, both for comparison among different tracks, and also importantly at the same track at different times as the "same" racing surface changes. Running a mile & 1/16th in 1:433 (yippee I can finally indicate the traditional racing measurement of fifths) could be a big performance that was very fast on a 'dull' slow drying-out surface on Thursday while a time of 1:424 at the very same track might really be a very slow poor effort on a 'tight' hard-packed surface on Sunday, and sometimes a track can even undergo a major shift in surface condition in the middle of a day of racing.
In any effort to adjust for these differences, whether by Beyer or others, typically one starts with common plain vanilla type races for horses that are very well known established quantities that are largely interchangeable from place to place and day to day such as races for 10k claimers, which are compared to "par" or average times for that class and distance at that track and to the prior performances of those same animals to determine a pattern of variance for that day (or even sometimes a partial day) at that track, and the variant one arrives at, which may be something like "main track was slow by 3/5ths in sprints & slow by 6/5ths in routes" is then applied to the racecard when producing a figure for comparison. It does require judgment in arriving at the variant and sometimes has issues.
I find it is useful for comparing dirt races but should not be used blindly to the exclusion of other factors. And I find it utterly ridiculous and completely without merit in grass racing, which I suspect Beyer and his crew knows, but nowadays has to go ahead and do anyway because the Racing Form pays him and his crew to cook a number for everything that's run at the track regardless.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 8th, 2015 at 1:59:56 PM
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Quote: DrawingDeadRE: Beyer or other speed figures -snip-
Another great explanation....thanks again. As you can tell I put a small value on these types of numbers. Mostly because I do not know how to apply past numbers with future number potential. So to focus this discussion on 3yo runners, what does Materiality's and Dortmund's equal Beyer(104) mean? "Nothing" is a completely acceptable answer.
March 8th, 2015 at 2:20:43 PM
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Wynn now has a number of Derby props available.
Kentucky Derby Points Prop (minimum # of Derby points to make and run*)
Over 20.5 points Even
Under 20.5 points -120
*must run in the Derby
Will any horse win the 2015 Triple Crown?
Yes +650
No -850
Will a horse win any 2 of the 2015 Triple Crown Races?
Yes +190
No -220
Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110
Kentucky Derby Points Prop (minimum # of Derby points to make and run*)
Over 20.5 points Even
Under 20.5 points -120
*must run in the Derby
Will any horse win the 2015 Triple Crown?
Yes +650
No -850
Will a horse win any 2 of the 2015 Triple Crown Races?
Yes +190
No -220
Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110
March 8th, 2015 at 2:47:17 PM
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The Beyer numbers, I just stopped looking at them for anything. Big issue I had was taking the numbers for different race lengths. From my understanding, they just add an arbitrary 6 seconds per 1/16 mile. There is no attempt to add a second or two for horses that have never ran the distance, or any other factors that may add time for the extra distance. Which to me basically makes the numbers worthless unless comparing exact same distances. And, when I do that, the numbers are still off to me. So, I stopped looking at them. It's a good idea, but way too flawed IMO.
At this point I'd rather just make the time adjustments myself, I at least add time for extra distance. And, then basically come up with an estimated time for the race. A 1.45.40 I might adjust to an est. 1.43.20 or est. 1.46.80 etc. I don't see the need for a speed figure of 104 or 85, but then again if someone was going to pay me for it, I could certainly give 'em a number.
And, also, for me the time doesn't have to be all that accurate, it doesn't have to be down to the tenth of a second. I just want to know if the horse is going to be able to run with the other horses or not. Then make all the adjustments for the upcoming race, pace/jockey/trainer/owner/track/running style and everything else. Anyway, that's the way I think about it.
And then after all that, Ocean Knight will duel it out for last place, and finish 30 lenths off the lead. A friendly reminder that this is actual gambling at it's finest. :)
At this point I'd rather just make the time adjustments myself, I at least add time for extra distance. And, then basically come up with an estimated time for the race. A 1.45.40 I might adjust to an est. 1.43.20 or est. 1.46.80 etc. I don't see the need for a speed figure of 104 or 85, but then again if someone was going to pay me for it, I could certainly give 'em a number.
And, also, for me the time doesn't have to be all that accurate, it doesn't have to be down to the tenth of a second. I just want to know if the horse is going to be able to run with the other horses or not. Then make all the adjustments for the upcoming race, pace/jockey/trainer/owner/track/running style and everything else. Anyway, that's the way I think about it.
And then after all that, Ocean Knight will duel it out for last place, and finish 30 lenths off the lead. A friendly reminder that this is actual gambling at it's finest. :)
March 8th, 2015 at 2:50:55 PM
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If they were both fully mature consistently sound five year-old geldings going six furlongs for the twenty-third time, it would mean a dead heat. But these are not five year-old geldings, and their goal is to be doing something different in eight weeks which is not going to be six furlongs once again for the 23rd time. So what it means to me is not nothing, but for THIS purpose what I most want to see now is a distinct pattern of improvement with both added distance and more weeks of continued growth for these developing adolescents. I will forgive some mistakes and an outburst of surly behavior but will not tolerate seeing my equine DDead Jr. settling in to just munching the same Cheetos in the same chair at the same pace from week to week while some of his formerly more awkward classmates continue taking new steps to become something more and better and move on.Quote: KeeneoneAnother great explanation....thanks again. As you can tell I put a small value on these types of numbers. Mostly because I do not know how to apply past numbers with future number potential. So to focus this discussion on 3yo runners, what does Materiality's and Dortmund's equal Beyer(104) mean? "Nothing" is a completely acceptable answer.
Besides a pattern of improvement or absence of it, figures adjusting the times for comparison of races at different tracks becomes acutely relevant to the purpose here, more so than for just about any other race with the possible exception of some Breeders' Cup events. Good luck trying to get something that ran 1:49 flat on an average day on the facile Santa Anita surface to struggle to stay anywhere near one who took 1:492 at the same distance on an average day on the Churchill or Fair Grounds or Gulfstream surface, or even more so on the main track route surface at Tampa. The superficially "faster" SA runner would be hard pressed to stay within ten lengths at the wire, so the translation of raw times from different venues to a common scale for comparison can easily amount to the difference between being clearly first or dead last. And I could have constructed a difference in raw untranslated times that amounts to more than twenty lengths for exactly the same effort if I chose to get into things like the same distance being a race around two turns at one track while it is a one turn race out of a chute on the backstretch at another.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 9th, 2015 at 1:15:49 AM
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Good:
http://www.drf.com/news/premium/top-san-felipe-finishers-set-rematch-santa-anita-derby (most of the text of this piece, which includes reporting on the trainers' remarks, is behind a DRF subscriber paywall)
I wanted to see most of them go again at a mile and an eighth.
The remarks in the rest of the post-race piece include Sise saying Prospect Park is still learning and that he thinks he will improve with distance, some complaints by Cassidy about Ocho's rough trip, and Carla Gaines regretting interruptions in Bolo's training & suggesting he may have been light on conditioning for the race. After the race I was feeling unsure about how to interpret what I think this effort told me, and still am. I'm glad to hear she's planning to take him to that race on April 4th.
And good again; as expected, Pletcher confirms Carpe Diem will be headed to the Blue Grass on April 4th: http://www.drf.com/news/premium/carpe-diem-points-blue-grass-following-tampa-bay-triumph
http://www.drf.com/news/premium/top-san-felipe-finishers-set-rematch-santa-anita-derby (most of the text of this piece, which includes reporting on the trainers' remarks, is behind a DRF subscriber paywall)
Quote: Daily Racing FormARCADIA, Calif. – Dortmund, Prospect Park, and Bolo – the first three finishers in the San Felipe Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita – all came out of the race well and are set for a rematch in four weeks in the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby, their trainers said Sunday morning.
I wanted to see most of them go again at a mile and an eighth.
The remarks in the rest of the post-race piece include Sise saying Prospect Park is still learning and that he thinks he will improve with distance, some complaints by Cassidy about Ocho's rough trip, and Carla Gaines regretting interruptions in Bolo's training & suggesting he may have been light on conditioning for the race. After the race I was feeling unsure about how to interpret what I think this effort told me, and still am. I'm glad to hear she's planning to take him to that race on April 4th.
And good again; as expected, Pletcher confirms Carpe Diem will be headed to the Blue Grass on April 4th: http://www.drf.com/news/premium/carpe-diem-points-blue-grass-following-tampa-bay-triumph
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 10th, 2015 at 7:21:38 AM
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Texas Red will be headed to Arkansas because he needs a top 3 finish (or top 2) to make the Derby. Arkansas should be easier than Cali, even if Pharoah stays there.
March 10th, 2015 at 9:24:19 AM
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Brandi out of the Rebel. Pharoah will go off at 1-2. My oaks bet on Callback looks better too.
March 10th, 2015 at 10:46:22 AM
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Would love to catch Pharoah at 1-2. Likely 1-5.
March 10th, 2015 at 5:14:23 PM
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Really bummed about TCBrandi. With the defections of Barbados, The Great War, Khozan, and Take Charge Brandi, my # of "live" future tickets is dwindling.
He will get bet hard in this race. He is strictly a bet against for me in this spot, from a value perspective. Negatives: 1st start after injury, 1st start in 6 months, 2nd time around 2 turns, shipping in to new track/surface, 1st 3yo start. Positives: great workouts, solid pp's, the field may be sub-par, and his potential. I believe his connections would be content with a top 3 finish for the comebacker. We do not know the Rebel entrants yet, but I would consider Bold Conquest or The Truth Or Else. Both are solid 3 year olds at this point with experience over the surface (Southwest). I still think AP is a Derby contender, but he may need a race (or two) to get his form back.
Quote: Sabretom2Would love to catch Pharoah at 1-2. Likely 1-5.
He will get bet hard in this race. He is strictly a bet against for me in this spot, from a value perspective. Negatives: 1st start after injury, 1st start in 6 months, 2nd time around 2 turns, shipping in to new track/surface, 1st 3yo start. Positives: great workouts, solid pp's, the field may be sub-par, and his potential. I believe his connections would be content with a top 3 finish for the comebacker. We do not know the Rebel entrants yet, but I would consider Bold Conquest or The Truth Or Else. Both are solid 3 year olds at this point with experience over the surface (Southwest). I still think AP is a Derby contender, but he may need a race (or two) to get his form back.
March 10th, 2015 at 5:50:07 PM
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Quote: Keeneone. I believe his connections would be content with a top 3 finish for the comebacker. We do not know the Rebel entrants yet, but I would consider Bold Conquest or The Truth Or Else. Both are solid 3 year olds at this point with experience over the surface (Southwest). I still think AP is a Derby contender, but he may need a race (or two) to get his form back.
You should get a pretty good price on any horse other than AP. At this point, I have AP in the derby money.
March 11th, 2015 at 6:32:33 AM
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Differences of opinion are the essential ingredient for a horse race, and a wagering market. I currently have eight straight win betting interests in the futures (but with more than that tied up in exacta combinations). Seven of the eight could technically be considered "live" at this point, but in practical reality I really only consider four of them to be really live with tickets that are worth as much or more than I paid for them. That's a little less than I'd have hoped for as they get into mid-March, but not by much. I'll probably be adding one more in the next few weeks, during the relative quiet time on the calendar for three year-olds between this weekend and the major March 28 events that have significant Derby implications. I'll have more future book straight win wagering interests than I usually do, but I do think this was a deeper than average crop.
Betting against some popular heavily backed young colts with characteristics that scream "middle distance" horse, and that I believe are unlikely to be mile and a quarter horses, as prospective wagering interests later in a Grade 1 against the kind of large field that's usually likely to provide for a very honest pace or more for the distance & surface, is exactly what I look to use the future wagers to do every year. And that's what I have been trying to accomplish with futures again this year: betting against the Pharoahs, Dortmunds, Upstarts, Kabeirs. Against them being first specifically at ten furlongs, at Churchill, in May. And against their price in the futures wagering market.
But, for me that's a different and less difficult matter than finding a spot providing the right productive opportunity to do so in something like one of the lesser Grade 2 races, at a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn. Particularly when a trainer like Baffert, with his peculiar form cycle patterns, has had plenty of opportunity away from prying eyes to refresh them with his magic oats. My problem with that is I haven't yet found a way to handicap his "veterinarian." And I'd be reluctant to go any further with that last part in someone else's public forum, but there's enough out in the public domain for any extra-inquisitive sorts around who may want to dig a little further than the average gambler to follow their curiosity as far as it leads them, perhaps starting out with Googling search terms like "Baffert + sudden death" with or without some other modifying search filters such as "hormone."
But I haven't even looked at the field yet for the Rebel.
I think I almost certainly stumbled onto a stale fixed-odds line for Carpe Diem on one of my tickets potentially returning over 25 times my wager, and was probably the last and maybe even the only one to do so as late as I did for that one (I have multiple tickets on him at different prices booked at different times).
Good luck.
Betting against some popular heavily backed young colts with characteristics that scream "middle distance" horse, and that I believe are unlikely to be mile and a quarter horses, as prospective wagering interests later in a Grade 1 against the kind of large field that's usually likely to provide for a very honest pace or more for the distance & surface, is exactly what I look to use the future wagers to do every year. And that's what I have been trying to accomplish with futures again this year: betting against the Pharoahs, Dortmunds, Upstarts, Kabeirs. Against them being first specifically at ten furlongs, at Churchill, in May. And against their price in the futures wagering market.
But, for me that's a different and less difficult matter than finding a spot providing the right productive opportunity to do so in something like one of the lesser Grade 2 races, at a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn. Particularly when a trainer like Baffert, with his peculiar form cycle patterns, has had plenty of opportunity away from prying eyes to refresh them with his magic oats. My problem with that is I haven't yet found a way to handicap his "veterinarian." And I'd be reluctant to go any further with that last part in someone else's public forum, but there's enough out in the public domain for any extra-inquisitive sorts around who may want to dig a little further than the average gambler to follow their curiosity as far as it leads them, perhaps starting out with Googling search terms like "Baffert + sudden death" with or without some other modifying search filters such as "hormone."
But I haven't even looked at the field yet for the Rebel.
I think I almost certainly stumbled onto a stale fixed-odds line for Carpe Diem on one of my tickets potentially returning over 25 times my wager, and was probably the last and maybe even the only one to do so as late as I did for that one (I have multiple tickets on him at different prices booked at different times).
Good luck.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 12th, 2015 at 9:25:29 PM
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Saturday 3/14/15 Oaklawn Park race#10 Rebel Stakes Grade 2 (11/16mile - 750k):
1 - The Truth Or Else (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 75/1)
2 - Madefromlucky (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 50/1)
3 - Tizwonderfulcreek
4 - American Pharoah (Wynn 9/1, W Hill 10/1, Westgate 7/1)
5 - Bold Conquest (Wynn 85/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 40/1)
6 - Paid Admission
7 - Sakima (W Hill 150/1)
-Do any of these have a DD AWD over 7.3?
American Pharoah (1-2 morning line) is the lone speed in here. Even if there was another speedy colt entered, he would still be the "speed of the speed". How far will he go on the front end in his comeback race? Baffert's record in this race is very impressive as well. He is strictly the horse to beat. If Bold Conquest can get up to 10/1(or higher) I would consider him good value in this spot. I will wait until race time/post parade to see how the horses look on the track. I will also be interested to see how big the show pool gets before the race....
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Nice day of racing @ Oaklawn with 3 stakes races (Azeri,Razorback H.,Rebel). Race #9 (right before the Rebel) is also a 3yo race @ 11/16mile for maidens. It may provide useful time comparisons with the Rebel.
1 - The Truth Or Else (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 75/1)
2 - Madefromlucky (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 50/1)
3 - Tizwonderfulcreek
4 - American Pharoah (Wynn 9/1, W Hill 10/1, Westgate 7/1)
5 - Bold Conquest (Wynn 85/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 40/1)
6 - Paid Admission
7 - Sakima (W Hill 150/1)
-Do any of these have a DD AWD over 7.3?
American Pharoah (1-2 morning line) is the lone speed in here. Even if there was another speedy colt entered, he would still be the "speed of the speed". How far will he go on the front end in his comeback race? Baffert's record in this race is very impressive as well. He is strictly the horse to beat. If Bold Conquest can get up to 10/1(or higher) I would consider him good value in this spot. I will wait until race time/post parade to see how the horses look on the track. I will also be interested to see how big the show pool gets before the race....
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Nice day of racing @ Oaklawn with 3 stakes races (Azeri,Razorback H.,Rebel). Race #9 (right before the Rebel) is also a 3yo race @ 11/16mile for maidens. It may provide useful time comparisons with the Rebel.
March 13th, 2015 at 3:50:42 AM
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I can't remember the last time I saw a program morning line of 1-2.
*[Bold Conquest's pedigree has a higher number now than what I posted for him last fall, after recalculation from additional racing data provided by the still relatively small sample of the progeny of his young sire.]
Since I'm mostly done getting ready for my weekend, in case some don't know why a mountain village in Arkansas of all places came to have a major racetrack:
And creating the Las Vegas Mob Museum as a tourist attraction was not an original idea at all:
Madefromlucky 7.5f; Bold Conquest 7.3f*; Sakima 7.3f.Quote: Keeneone-Do any of these have a DD AWD over 7.3?
*[Bold Conquest's pedigree has a higher number now than what I posted for him last fall, after recalculation from additional racing data provided by the still relatively small sample of the progeny of his young sire.]
Interesting thought. Calling all bridge jumpers. I'd like to see where some of these are really at, and I do want to watch 'Lucky & maybe 'Conquest. But in the short field, with a likely lack of pace pressure, and on that track on a big stakes card when they've sometimes been known to have it 'souped-up' for a big day in old Hot Springs, if A.P. gets to just lope around and draw off I think I'll probably get to learn very little. Whatever happened to the honored venerable racing tradition of sending out a sacrificial "rabbit?" Where are the nutcases & hopeless fruitcake entries like Hero of Humor and Runhappy when they are actually needed? For rooting interest and to stay out of trouble where I don't like the way the race shape sets up, I'll plan to play a degenerate flea style bingo ticket, putting a whole two bucks on the late double tying up 'Lucky & with a maiden I like in the last race. Good luck.Quote: KeeneoneI will also be interested to see how big the show pool gets before the race....
Since I'm mostly done getting ready for my weekend, in case some don't know why a mountain village in Arkansas of all places came to have a major racetrack:
http://www.hotsprings.org/pages/history-buffs/Quote:Leo McLaughlin was elected mayor of Hot Springs in 1926, and fulfilled a campaign promise to allow gambling. Illegal gambling had long been a staple of life in Hot Springs, but McLaughlin took it to a new level using voter fraud and other unlawful tactics to drive his political machine. During his 22-year reign, Hot Springs became a haven for notorious criminals and mobsters, including Owen “Owney” Madden, Charles “Lucky” Luciano, and Al Capone.
And creating the Las Vegas Mob Museum as a tourist attraction was not an original idea at all:
http://www.tgmoa.com/Quote: Gangster Museum of AmericaTake yourself back to the days of the 20's, 30's, and 40's when mineral water, gambling, bootlegging, and other extreme pleasures brought visitors from all over the world to Hot Springs, Arkansas. The Gangster Museum of America is an historic and entertaining account of how some of the most notorious criminals in America co-existed with the quaint population of this little valley town in the mountains of central Arkansas. The audiovisual experience of the seven galleries...
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 13th, 2015 at 12:13:16 PM
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How about two 1-2 morning line favorites on one race card?Quote: DrawingDeadI can't remember the last time I saw a program morning line of 1-2.
Azeri Stakes race#7 - Untapable 1-2
Thanks for this.Quote: DrawingDeadMadefromlucky 7.5f; Bold Conquest 7.3f*; Sakima 7.3f.
Another interesting thing about Oaklawn: No turf course! All dirt, all the time.Quote: DrawingDeadSince I'm mostly done getting ready for my weekend, in case some don't know why a mountain village in Arkansas of all places came to have a major racetrack:
March 13th, 2015 at 1:48:37 PM
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Do any sports books have a bet for
"Will a horse win the Triple Crown in 2015?"
If so, what are the odds?
"Will a horse win the Triple Crown in 2015?"
If so, what are the odds?
March 13th, 2015 at 1:57:36 PM
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Quote: KeeneoneWynn now has a number of Derby props available.
Kentucky Derby Points Prop (minimum # of Derby points to make and run*)
Over 20.5 points Even
Under 20.5 points -120
*must run in the Derby
Will any horse win the 2015 Triple Crown?
Yes +650
No -850
Will a horse win any 2 of the 2015 Triple Crown Races?
Yes +190
No -220
Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110
March 13th, 2015 at 2:08:13 PM
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Thanks!
March 14th, 2015 at 12:28:13 AM
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It's been raining the last couple of days at Oaklawn Park, and it's suppose to rain tomorrow for the Rebel as well. A.P. is coming back from an injury, switching to a track he's never run before, and now he's going to have to run in mud. And, if that injury was any kind of bad, I don't know if they go 110% in the rain. He looks like he's in tremendous shape (that 1.10.40 work had a little g next to the H), so I wouldn't be surprised by a great performance. It's probably just the odds talking to me, but I'm guessing..
1. Madefromlucky
2. American Pharoah
3. The Truth or Else
4. Bold Conquest
1. Madefromlucky
2. American Pharoah
3. The Truth or Else
4. Bold Conquest
March 14th, 2015 at 1:13:52 AM
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Quote: JyBrd0403-snip-
He looks like he's in tremendous shape (that 1.10.40 work had a little g next to the H), so I wouldn't be surprised by a great performance.
-snip-
Here is the gate workout you mention (long-ish video, so you can fast forward to ~3:00 to see him load into the gate):
-He looks super in this one, and it appeared to me the workout was a bit longer than 6 furlongs (maybe a mile?). His rider seemed to let him continue on past the wire around the second turn. He will be tough (maybe impossible) to beat, good luck to all tomorrow @ Oaklawn.
March 14th, 2015 at 7:38:51 AM
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RE: Rebel Stakes mud pedigrees
I don't care to rely on the Tomlinson numbers published in the Racing Form, so like distance figures I also determine my own mud runner tendencies from the race records of the progeny of both sides of thoroughbreds' pedigrees. In some cases they roughly track with the Form's Tomlinson figures, and in some others I find they differ quite a bit. I don't know anything about Tomlinson's methodology, so I couldn't tell you why. This is ONLY a pedigree data analysis, and does NOT take into account any of these entries' actual individual past performance on off tracks, or any relevant observations about their physical characteristics and way of going, and most importantly omits any consideration of this or any track's surface biases that can become especially severe with weather. This is just from wet track pedigree data. I actually produce a number for this for my own use, but that numerical output would be meaningless gibberish to anyone else so I've just listed them with an adjective characterizing it:
Paid Admission (excellent)
Madefromlucky (very good)
American Pharoah (good)
Sakima (good)
Bold Conquest (above average)
Allied Forces (above average)
The Truth Or Else (average)
Like I said, I'm committed to wagering all of two whole dollars on this particular event, but there you have that, for whatever anyone may want to think it is worth. Note: I find that often sticky partially drying out tracks are more significant for this sort of thing than some wet/sloppy but 'sealed' surfaces. There's no substitute for watching the earlier races carefully to see how it is playing and possibly changing.
Good luck to those putting a bit more scratch at risk on this thing than I will. In this case, I can mean that. I've already counted the two George Washington portraits as a loss, and dispensed with my grief about that.
I don't care to rely on the Tomlinson numbers published in the Racing Form, so like distance figures I also determine my own mud runner tendencies from the race records of the progeny of both sides of thoroughbreds' pedigrees. In some cases they roughly track with the Form's Tomlinson figures, and in some others I find they differ quite a bit. I don't know anything about Tomlinson's methodology, so I couldn't tell you why. This is ONLY a pedigree data analysis, and does NOT take into account any of these entries' actual individual past performance on off tracks, or any relevant observations about their physical characteristics and way of going, and most importantly omits any consideration of this or any track's surface biases that can become especially severe with weather. This is just from wet track pedigree data. I actually produce a number for this for my own use, but that numerical output would be meaningless gibberish to anyone else so I've just listed them with an adjective characterizing it:
Paid Admission (excellent)
Madefromlucky (very good)
American Pharoah (good)
Sakima (good)
Bold Conquest (above average)
Allied Forces (above average)
The Truth Or Else (average)
Like I said, I'm committed to wagering all of two whole dollars on this particular event, but there you have that, for whatever anyone may want to think it is worth. Note: I find that often sticky partially drying out tracks are more significant for this sort of thing than some wet/sloppy but 'sealed' surfaces. There's no substitute for watching the earlier races carefully to see how it is playing and possibly changing.
Good luck to those putting a bit more scratch at risk on this thing than I will. In this case, I can mean that. I've already counted the two George Washington portraits as a loss, and dispensed with my grief about that.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 14th, 2015 at 5:23:28 PM
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Very impressive win after lunging coming out the gate. He now has to be very serious for the big one. Hope he pulls up sound after the start issues.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
March 14th, 2015 at 6:24:48 PM
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My easy pick-4 strategy backfired. Pick-4 paid $50 on a $183 bet. I had a 25-1 shot finish 2nd in leg 2 and a 12-1 finish 2nd in leg 4. Oh well.
March 14th, 2015 at 6:25:38 PM
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Pharoah is my Derby pick. I hope he races one more time before Derby.
March 14th, 2015 at 10:12:41 PM
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I have a slightly different opinion. Reliable old-time recipe: short field, no speed, soft pace, add water & stir lightly, learn zippo & squadoosch. Or to quote a frequent hand analysis observation of a poker player friend: "Bah, phfttt."
From the six races on the card at the distance, fractional times at 4f & 6f:
48.26 1:12.58 (250k Stakes Gr3 4+)
48.96 1:13.85 (300k Stakes Gr2 Fillies & Mares 4+)
48.00 1:14.46 (Claiming 6,250 4+)
48.77 1:14.75 (AOC40k Fillies & Mares 4+)
49.63 1:15.22 (750k Stakes Gr2 3yo - The Rebel, otherwise known as The Baffert)
50.72 1:16.34 (Maiden 3yo)
If he didn't draw off to win by daylight as the loose lone speed after his nap in 1:15 and change, he'd belong in a mule race. Three quarters in 1:151. Sheesh. After they do that, I don't care what the finish looks like, it isn't relevant to anything. If he doesn't hook something real for pace pressure in his final prep, as he hasn't in any race to date, I wouldn't bet him to get a mile and a quarter at Churchill with Even Bob & AxelWolf's money. He won't be getting away with waltzing along unmolested on a pace of > 1:15 in that, more like 1:10-1:11, a difference of about twenty to twenty-five lengths.
But, while Speedy didn't outpace bottom rung cheap claimers worth less than a decent used car or filly & mare "non-winners twice other than" today he did clearly out-foot a mediocre maiden field. The final time comparison is a lot better for the Rebel and in the right range, much more than the dwaddling pace he got away with, but under those circumstances it should be something downright spectacular. But I definitely hope he's in the gate in May, along with some others just like that.
Best of luck to those who saw it differently and feel otherwise about him for that "other" race they're putting on in seven weeks. His admission ticket is safely punched, so we'll prolly get to find out with some serious lunch money on the table! Goody!
EDIT to add: I just learned that he displaced a shoe at the start. That's a fairly big deal to me. Setting aside an opinion about whether he's a mile and a quarter horse for a moment, that counts for considerable credit for some extra native athleticism and innate competitive desire in his performance to me, regardless of whether he's a middle-distance horse or something else, since he's not responsible for his competition and the fact that the race came up paceless. I still don't take this race as a useful indicator specifically of Derby potential one way or the other, but with that context I think I can take some more general information about him from it.
From the six races on the card at the distance, fractional times at 4f & 6f:
48.26 1:12.58 (250k Stakes Gr3 4+)
48.96 1:13.85 (300k Stakes Gr2 Fillies & Mares 4+)
48.00 1:14.46 (Claiming 6,250 4+)
48.77 1:14.75 (AOC40k Fillies & Mares 4+)
49.63 1:15.22 (750k Stakes Gr2 3yo - The Rebel, otherwise known as The Baffert)
50.72 1:16.34 (Maiden 3yo)
If he didn't draw off to win by daylight as the loose lone speed after his nap in 1:15 and change, he'd belong in a mule race. Three quarters in 1:151. Sheesh. After they do that, I don't care what the finish looks like, it isn't relevant to anything. If he doesn't hook something real for pace pressure in his final prep, as he hasn't in any race to date, I wouldn't bet him to get a mile and a quarter at Churchill with Even Bob & AxelWolf's money. He won't be getting away with waltzing along unmolested on a pace of > 1:15 in that, more like 1:10-1:11, a difference of about twenty to twenty-five lengths.
But, while Speedy didn't outpace bottom rung cheap claimers worth less than a decent used car or filly & mare "non-winners twice other than" today he did clearly out-foot a mediocre maiden field. The final time comparison is a lot better for the Rebel and in the right range, much more than the dwaddling pace he got away with, but under those circumstances it should be something downright spectacular. But I definitely hope he's in the gate in May, along with some others just like that.
Best of luck to those who saw it differently and feel otherwise about him for that "other" race they're putting on in seven weeks. His admission ticket is safely punched, so we'll prolly get to find out with some serious lunch money on the table! Goody!
EDIT to add: I just learned that he displaced a shoe at the start. That's a fairly big deal to me. Setting aside an opinion about whether he's a mile and a quarter horse for a moment, that counts for considerable credit for some extra native athleticism and innate competitive desire in his performance to me, regardless of whether he's a middle-distance horse or something else, since he's not responsible for his competition and the fact that the race came up paceless. I still don't take this race as a useful indicator specifically of Derby potential one way or the other, but with that context I think I can take some more general information about him from it.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 15th, 2015 at 6:58:51 AM
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That's odd that he displaced a shoe. The reason I liked him so much is that I just loved the way he ran. His stride looked perfect to me.
The race did nothing for him, other than give him a spot in the field. That's why I hope he runs again in 3-4 weeks. Maybe since he barely moved a muscle, Baffert runs him back in 3, to give him 4 weeks until the Derby.
My conclusion is that the race results didn't mean anything to me, but the horse obviously came back from his layoff fine. I don't really like any of the other serious contenders yet, so for now, Pharoah is my pick.
The race did nothing for him, other than give him a spot in the field. That's why I hope he runs again in 3-4 weeks. Maybe since he barely moved a muscle, Baffert runs him back in 3, to give him 4 weeks until the Derby.
My conclusion is that the race results didn't mean anything to me, but the horse obviously came back from his layoff fine. I don't really like any of the other serious contenders yet, so for now, Pharoah is my pick.
March 15th, 2015 at 11:55:02 AM
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My observations: He came home faster compared with any of the races that DD mentioned (the final 2.5 furlongs). While coming off a 6 month layoff, stumbling out of the gate, sprung a shoe, first time on a wet track, and carrying 4 pounds more than the older males in the Razorback (Race Day/Midnight Hawk). Is if he is happy and healthy, AP will be in the Derby. He has earned enough points to make the gate. I assume he will come back again in the Arkansas Derby. Maybe Mr Z (he might race in the LA Derby @ Fairgrounds) will run and we can see an honest pace up front on a fast track. I am glad we have some front running speed show up that seemed to be lacking so far in these preps.
I was disappointed with how Bold Conquest ran. I expected a 2nd place finish at a minimum and 20 Derby points for him. He ran very green around the first turn (same thing happened in the Southwest) changing course/steadied. He ran with his head high, could not change leads down the lane, or run straight, and just did not look comfortable. AP looked like a pro compared to Bold Conquest. I can only hope that he is still improving and did not enjoy his last 2 wet races in his 3yo campaign.
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Today, Sun 3/15
Aqueduct race#6 (3yo MSW 1 1/16mile)
I like #2 Money Multiplier. 3rd start for Chad Brown. All Hands and Arbitrator are also interesting runners. Not likely Derby runners, but they are 3 year-olds.
I was disappointed with how Bold Conquest ran. I expected a 2nd place finish at a minimum and 20 Derby points for him. He ran very green around the first turn (same thing happened in the Southwest) changing course/steadied. He ran with his head high, could not change leads down the lane, or run straight, and just did not look comfortable. AP looked like a pro compared to Bold Conquest. I can only hope that he is still improving and did not enjoy his last 2 wet races in his 3yo campaign.
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Today, Sun 3/15
Aqueduct race#6 (3yo MSW 1 1/16mile)
I like #2 Money Multiplier. 3rd start for Chad Brown. All Hands and Arbitrator are also interesting runners. Not likely Derby runners, but they are 3 year-olds.
March 15th, 2015 at 12:25:26 PM
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I don't know who wants to ship in to Hot Springs in April if the plan for his final prep remains the Arkansas Derby, as they've been talking about. It would need to have some competition with at least tactical speed if it isn't to be him just beating up on some of the locally stabled 3 Y/Os. Maybe they get that with the mile and an eighth and the lure of the qualifying points; they have had mostly full fields in the past even when the others in their series for three year olds leading up to it haven't. Baffert often does an excellent job of picking out races suited to his stock, especially when shipping into Oaklawn.
Rebel Stakes wins:
2015 Baffert
2014 Baffert
2013 Not Baffert
2012 Baffert
2011 Baffert
2010 Baffert
Southwest Stakes wins:
2015 Not Baffert
2014 Not Baffert
2013 Baffert
2012 Baffert
2011 Not Baffert
2010 Baffert
Rumored to soon be renamed "The Two To Five Stakes" and "The Baffert Invitational" respectively. A number of those Baffert colts eventually went on to become very good horses, though good at accomplishing widely varied things among them, including some who ended up as champion sprinters; while only one of these made the Derby at Churchill and he had a terrible trip in it that didn't really allow any possibility of seeing if he could have won it with his best race that day in 2010.
Rebel Stakes wins:
2015 Baffert
2014 Baffert
2013 Not Baffert
2012 Baffert
2011 Baffert
2010 Baffert
Southwest Stakes wins:
2015 Not Baffert
2014 Not Baffert
2013 Baffert
2012 Baffert
2011 Not Baffert
2010 Baffert
Rumored to soon be renamed "The Two To Five Stakes" and "The Baffert Invitational" respectively. A number of those Baffert colts eventually went on to become very good horses, though good at accomplishing widely varied things among them, including some who ended up as champion sprinters; while only one of these made the Derby at Churchill and he had a terrible trip in it that didn't really allow any possibility of seeing if he could have won it with his best race that day in 2010.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 15th, 2015 at 12:55:42 PM
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Today, Sun 3/15
Aqueduct race#6 (3yo MSW 1 1/16mile)
All Hands won on the front end. Brother of Eight Belles could get better over time.
-Money Multiplier did little and I stayed away from the betting window when he showed early @ 1/5. He went off @ 3/5.
Aqueduct race#6 (3yo MSW 1 1/16mile)
All Hands won on the front end. Brother of Eight Belles could get better over time.
-Money Multiplier did little and I stayed away from the betting window when he showed early @ 1/5. He went off @ 3/5.
March 15th, 2015 at 3:07:33 PM
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Cashed my two Gulfstream turf races today & feeling flush I went and added Materiality to my Derby future book stable, for an amount smaller than the others, booked at 45/1 from Bill Hill. Shame on me for not doing any line shopping for this one; it was getting to the end of my day and week, and I don't want to be doing anything at all that requires going to a live betting window in any Las Vegas area book during the next few weeks of the March NCAA tournament. But I'll be annoyed with myself later if I find I could've booked him at 85/1 or something like that.
The straight win wager betting interests that I consider live (not including some others involved in exactas) are now: Carpe Diem, Bolo, Far From Over, Itsaknockout, Materiality. Not so live wagers at this point are: Frosted, Imperia, Khozan, Lord Nelson. I'll need to build an addition to make a bigger barn in my den this year, but they shouldn't be eating too much more feed with less than seven weeks to go. Nice horsey, there's your stall, here's a mint, now just relax and stretch with some equine yoga for a few weeks and please don't hurt yourself on the paper shredder.
The straight win wager betting interests that I consider live (not including some others involved in exactas) are now: Carpe Diem, Bolo, Far From Over, Itsaknockout, Materiality. Not so live wagers at this point are: Frosted, Imperia, Khozan, Lord Nelson. I'll need to build an addition to make a bigger barn in my den this year, but they shouldn't be eating too much more feed with less than seven weeks to go. Nice horsey, there's your stall, here's a mint, now just relax and stretch with some equine yoga for a few weeks and please don't hurt yourself on the paper shredder.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 15th, 2015 at 3:56:58 PM
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OK here is what I don't get about the prop bet of whether there will be a triple crown winner at all in 2015…how do they set the line at +600 yes and -1000 no
The triple crown is exceedingly difficult to accomplish — does 6 to 1 really get anyone's blood racing to bet it? You could make more wagering some long shots to Place or Show in each individual race - why such stingy odds?
The triple crown is exceedingly difficult to accomplish — does 6 to 1 really get anyone's blood racing to bet it? You could make more wagering some long shots to Place or Show in each individual race - why such stingy odds?
March 15th, 2015 at 4:18:02 PM
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Quote: aceofspadesOK here is what I don't get about the prop bet of whether there will be a triple crown winner at all in 2015…how do they set the line at +600 yes and -1000 no
The triple crown is exceedingly difficult to accomplish — does 6 to 1 really get anyone's blood racing to bet it? You could make more wagering some long shots to Place or Show in each individual race - why such stingy odds?
Probably to prevent hedging on the Belmont if a horse wins both the Derby and Preakness.
Then again, 1-10 is a little high for the "no". I wouldn't be surprised if there's quite a bit of action that way.
March 15th, 2015 at 4:24:04 PM
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The line will move. When that occurs and the horse comes out of the Preakness in sound condition, that won't be the line.Quote: ThatDonGuyProbably to prevent hedging on the Belmont if a horse wins both the Derby and Preakness.
Of course the goal of setting any fixed odds line, and moving it, is to balance the action, as the book isn't seeking to become in-effect a bettor on any side. There's a general tendency toward bias in the wagering market for people to bet some props like this as fans of "their" horse they've become enthusiastic about. And the "no" side is obviously not much of a vehicle for a fan to express their feelings for any one object of their enthusiasm.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 15th, 2015 at 4:29:33 PM
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Quote: DrawingDeadThe line will move. When that occurs and the horse comes out of the Preakness in sound condition, that won't be the line.
But I am referring to right now, before any race has been run - how can something so difficult to attain be merely 6-1?
6-1 on whether any horse will win all three races - no thanks - might as well just bet whoever is 6-1 to win the Kentucky Derby or any other race on any given day
6-1 on one of the hardest things to do in sports history —— not even close to enticing
March 15th, 2015 at 4:37:39 PM
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^I agree that 6/1 on "yes" in a Triple Crown prop at this time is not at all enticing strictly as a rational value proposition. But that line implies there is action on that side of it at that price. I doubt the money on "yes" is coldly considering probabilities.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 15th, 2015 at 4:39:23 PM
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Quote: DrawingDead^I agree that 6/1 on "yes" in a Triple Crown prop at this time is not at all enticing strictly as a rational value proposition. But that line implies there is action on that side of it at that price. I doubt the money on "yes" is coldly considering probabilities.
Yeah makes no sense to place that wager at all — give me +10000 and I'll put 1000 on it
March 15th, 2015 at 6:30:35 PM
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What do you guys make of this fella? Didn't beat much at all but he could not have been more impressive?
My apologies, not sure how to include the actual footage. Just copy and paste?
Quote:http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/PRX/2015/3/15/7/race-7-alw-at-prx-on-3-15-15
My apologies, not sure how to include the actual footage. Just copy and paste?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
March 15th, 2015 at 7:12:10 PM
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Yeah it is impossible to embed the video from a site like Bloodhorse that uses 'Flash' video. You'd have to find a Youtube for it to play it here, or just copy and paste the link like you said.Quote: TomspurMy apologies, not sure how to include the actual footage. Just copy and paste?
I did that and watched the race, but don't have much of a sensible basis to form an opinion about him, since I almost never play Parx and am not familiar with the surface and competition and wouldn't know what to make of the raw times. But with that said, I know that I could like that pedigree a lot for the specific purpose of staying a mile and a quarter, if he is otherwise fast and fit enough for that level of competition. By Super Saver out of an Unbridled mare, the top line is fairly good and the bottom line contribution from the dam's side is terrific for that purpose of getting 10 furlongs, if that's what he's ever asked to do. I see he was entered for the Withers last month but scratched out of it.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 15th, 2015 at 7:49:19 PM
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Quote: TomspurWhat do you guys make of this fella? Didn't beat much at all but he could not have been more impressive?
Love that late running by Unrivaled. I was pulling for Blitzensmajikreign, with the great name and all. If a horse ran as a maiden claimer (which he did @ Kee @ 30k) makes it into any Triple Crown race and wins, I would be incredibly impressed. What a story he/she would be. He was recently cross-entered to two races, one being the Withers (as DD mentioned) and the other a Laurel AOC 35k. I believe he may have passed on those due to the cold weather. He can still make a major prep race if his connections want to....
March 15th, 2015 at 8:29:03 PM
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Quote: KeeneoneLove that late running by Unrivaled. I was pulling for Blitzensmajikreign, with the great name and all. If a horse ran as a maiden claimer (which he did @ Kee @ 30k) makes it into any Triple Crown race and wins, I would be incredibly impressed. What a story he/she would be. He was recently cross-entered to two races, one being the Withers (as DD mentioned) and the other a Laurel AOC 35k. I believe he may have passed on those due to the cold weather. He can still make a major prep race if his connections want to....
I believe that is what is neXt. Irwin is no mug and I would at least give him a 2nd look especially at 150 to 1?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
March 15th, 2015 at 8:53:00 PM
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I play parx all the time. One of the great tracks for bias.
get second you pig
March 15th, 2015 at 11:00:04 PM
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Quote: DrawingDeadCashed my two Gulfstream turf races today & feeling flush I went and added Materiality to my Derby future book stable, for an amount smaller than the others, booked at 45/1 from Bill Hill. Shame on me for not doing any line shopping for this one; it was getting to the end of my day and week, and I don't want to be doing anything at all that requires going to a live betting window in any Las Vegas area book during the next few weeks of the March NCAA tournament. But I'll be annoyed with myself later if I find I could've booked him at 85/1 or something like that.
The straight win wager betting interests that I consider live (not including some others involved in exactas) are now: Carpe Diem, Bolo, Far From Over, Itsaknockout, Materiality. Not so live wagers at this point are: Frosted, Imperia, Khozan, Lord Nelson. I'll need to build an addition to make a bigger barn in my den this year, but they shouldn't be eating too much more feed with less than seven weeks to go. Nice horsey, there's your stall, here's a mint, now just relax and stretch with some equine yoga for a few weeks and please don't hurt yourself on the paper shredder.
Materiality @ 45/1 is a solid price based on my odds information. If he repeats (no bouncing) in a major prep, he will be great value. He could show up in the last Derby pool in a couple of weeks, but probably not @ 45/1. He now has the title of unraced 2yo competing for the Derby....after Khozan's unfortunate injury.
I am interested in where Frosted turns up. He has 2 nice workouts in Florida since the FOY (aka "did someone mess with the timers in this race"). Maybe the Wood Memorial would be a better spot for his race style? I am not going to rule him out for a spot in the Derby.
Imperia is entered in the Spiral Stakes next weekend. His pattern is not what you like to see, but it worked for Royal Son, so, who knows....
Quote: aceofspadesYeah makes no sense to place that wager at all — give me +10000 and I'll put 1000 on it
I guess many of us would make that wager. I personally only consider one current Derby hopeful a "decent" bet for the Triple Crown. Carpe Diem. He is lightly raced against very good competition and has a shot at the longer Belmont @ 11/2mile. Winning 3 Graded stakes races in about 6 weeks against the best 3 year-olds is no easy task.
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2 races upcoming this weekend: Spiral Stakes and Sunland Derby. I would love to see Cyrus Alexander entered (and running) in the Sunland Derby. His current rider (for the last 2 races) C. Nakatani was injured in a big spill @ Santa Anita today. Firing Line looks to pointed towards this race.
March 16th, 2015 at 5:16:41 AM
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Dortman/Pharaoh, at this point looks like a two horse race. Arkansas derby is run too late. If Pharoh hangs out at oaklawn, I see Dortman very lonely up front.
March 17th, 2015 at 6:47:55 AM
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Least surprising news of the year, file under duh:
Texas Red Off the Kentucky Derby Trail
Texas Red Off the Kentucky Derby Trail
I find it amazing that he took significant money as late as Pool #3, closing at 14/1 in it on March 1st. What with the flashing neon "I'm toast" sign hanging around his neck as they had him swimming in the hydro therapy tub at the time. Never underestimate the degree of impulsive guessing, laziness, and just plain "duh" in gamblers, at the racetrack or anywhere else. And may it always be so.Quote: Lenny Shulman @Blood-Horse"We do not have adequate time to prepare Texas Red for a prep race that he would need..."
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:09:35 AM
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Unrivaled headed to Keeneland for the Bluegrass.
