First Saturday in May

RE: The Great War

Wesley Ward is mapping out an unconventional path for him, which was the same route through the Spiral Stakes that Graham Motion chose with this colt:



I may be in some danger of cloudy judgment on the wisdom of this, since it happens that was the bigget ticket I've cashed in this event, coming in at about 20:1 on the nose while smoking it by open lengths and looking every bit a winner to me with every stride at the time.

TGW's Breeders' Cup, in which he ran well for 4th when hanging or flattening out a bit after a less than ideal trip was: his first start in the US; first on anything other than European turf; and only about 4 weeks after his last race at the Curragh in Ireland, before shipping over the pond & going through quarantine. His last (and only other US) race to date was visually impressive, but I don't know what kind it really was that he beat so easily in that minor stakes at Turfway. The time would tend to look slow compared to other races at other tracks, until you remember that it was on the Turfway synthetic surface, which naturally produces slower raw times than other main track surfaces, including some other kitty litter tracks. It is difficult to compare it to others on the card that day, since it was the only race of real quality, but here are the other one-turn events for comparison, which were claiming races for older horses:

1:11.93 1:18.69 The Great War at 6f split & 6.5f final
1:13.52 1:20.23
1:14.70 1:21.58
1:14.31 -(n/a)-
1:14.50 -(n/a)-
1:14.73 -(n/a)-

Obviously he performed much faster than everything else running that day, not only in his race but all others, by a very wide margin amounting to ten lengths or more. As he probably should.

Turf & synthetic form, particularly if combined with some demonstration of above average tactical speed on those surfaces, has a pretty good record at the Derby. I have gradually developed opinions about some of the whys and wherefores of that. The Churchill main track surface generally is kind to some degree of grassy influence, more so than many others, such as Santa Anita which tends to be at the polar opposite of that spectrum. Furthermore, synth & turf racing tends to be kinder for the wear and tear, and particularly good at developing conditioning for stamina.

By War Front out of a Pulpit mare, his pedigree is good for the firm type of American grass racing, and for producing runners on synthetics, but really is a surface-agnostic type of pedigree rather than a specialist's sort. (Note: I'd make that same remark, maybe even a little more so, about Bolo. Hence my enthusiasm for him. In his case, Dynaformer's decendents like to run far on tracks that are oval in shape, covered in grass, polysomething, dirt, or probably broken glass if you let them. See: Barbaro.) From his pedigree I get a well-qualified AWD 7.3f on Mr. T.G. War for staying a mile and a quarter and continuing to develop from juvenile into his sophmore season.

Ward is a high percentage highly competent trainer at some first class tracks. I think this is one that is underbet in the futures to date, and should be taken seriously until he proves otherwise. I undrstand he may possibly make a final prep at Keeneland rather than going directly to the Derby from the Spiral at Turfway in the way Animal Kingdom did (leading to the big tote board price on Derby day) so we may all see the degree of truth or lack of it of this opinion before May.

Derby contender has a foot issue:
http://www.drf.com/news/texas-red-sidelined-abscess
It does not sound mega-serious, but certainly a bump in the training road towards the Derby.

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The Great War:

I really liked this one after the BC Juvenile, admittedly in a race I gave him no chance (1st dirt, 1st 2-turn race, 1st US start). I liked his effort enough to place a small wager on him in November. Some debatable negatives:
He does have a ton of starts (9 total), but most came on the turf.
Will he excel on the dirt or on another surface?
If his distance pedigree is as nice as DD has pointed out, why did he not race over 6.5 furlongs overseas?
Most/all of these concerns can be overcome by competing/winning a 2-turn event in the near future.

I read he may run in the John Battaglia (1 1/16mile) March 1 and then the Spiral Stakes (1 1/8mile) March 22nd. And if all goes well, 5 weeks off then the Derby.

Quote: Keeneone

The Great War:

I really liked this one after the BC Juvenile, admittedly in a race I gave him no chance (1st dirt, 1st 2-turn race, 1st US start). I liked his effort enough to place a small wager on him in November. Some debatable negatives:
He does have a ton of starts (9 total), but most came on the turf.
Will he excel on the dirt or on another surface?
If his distance pedigree is as nice as DD has pointed out, why did he not race over 6.5 furlongs overseas?
Most/all of these concerns can be overcome by competing/winning a 2-turn event in the near future.

I read he may run in the John Battaglia (1 1/16mile) March 1 and then the Spiral Stakes (1 1/8mile) March 22nd. And if all goes well, 5 weeks off then the Derby.

I agree with the drawbacks you've listed, except for the one about the distances raced as a juvenile in Ireland & England. That's just what they most commonly do with juveniles there - including their promising juveniles they are thinking have the potential to develop to go a mile and a half in a Group 1 at three or four... If you want your younger imports to have been running in what would be a two turn race distance here, then you may be waiting a while for something that was in Europe at age two. For example:

Quote:

The Dewhurst Stakes is a Group 1 flat horse race in Great Britain open to two-year-old colts and fillies. It is run on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket over a distance of 7 furlongs (1,408 metres), and it is scheduled to take place each year in October. It is Britain's most prestigious race for juvenile horses. The leading participants usually become major contenders for the following season's Classics.

Frankel is an example of one who ran in that "most prestigious" juvenile 7f stakes, and did not run beyond a mile in his 2 y/o season, on the way to becoming what some argue is the greatest or one of the greatest of all time, ending his undefeated career at the end of his four year-old season by taking Group 1s at 1-5/16m & then 1-1/4m on "heavy" ground at Ascot.

Six furlongs on just their normal everyday kind of deep turf often translates to eight panels or more worth of lung capacity on our quick firm ground in my opinion, even if times won't tell you that, and I mean our turf rather than our facile dirt. And some of their race courses go up and down hills. And they routinely do it packing a lot more weight than ours would be expected to carry when they are two years older. Our season climax of the Breeders' Cup juvenile turf is only a flat mile, and if you check the race records of winners of our few noteworthy juvenile turf routes, held late in the year, you'll find a lot of them went there from sprints.

Quote:

The 2014 Breeders' Cup opened with one of rider Frankie Dettori's famous flying dismounts after Hootenanny wore down Luck of the Kitten in the stretch to win the Juvenile Turf by three-quarters of a length, making it an exacta for trainer Wesley Ward.

His first race as far as a mile, after racing in England. Or the 2013 winner Outstrip, from England, again his first race as far as a mile. Or the 2012 winner, Aidan O'Brian's George Vancouver who wasn't sent that far in Europe. That's just how they commonly do it there with two year olds. And personally I tend to agree with them on that, more than us, at least for the later & longer developing sort who you're looking to become more classic distance competitors.

But otherwise, points against him well taken; I agree he's got his share of unknowns, and at least one known measurable knock for those of us who prefer them to have been run more sparingly at two.

And I'll hand you yet another, no extra charge. Ward is a fine trainer all-around and I consider his name in that box pretty good news for most any event, but his win percentage in sprints is actually higher than routes by more than ten points. His route record is just fine and definitely a cut above average, but the sprint numbers for him are more spectacular making his route percentages start to look kind of 'blah' by comparison. For prepping to get a mile and a quarter at a point still rather early in a 3 year-old's season, that isn't my very first choice of how I'd like to see those numbers come out.

I've only got him tied up in some exacta combinations, rather than grazing in my smaller straight-up "win" stable at this point. But good luck to us.

had this one in my horses to watch, effortlessly, he is in wed's 8th at tampa.

Quote: DrawingDead

I agree with the drawbacks you've listed, except for the one about the distances raced as a juvenile in Ireland & England. That's just what they most commonly do with juveniles there - including their promising juveniles they are thinking have the potential to develop to go a mile and a half in a Group 1 at three or four... If you want your younger imports to have been running in what would be a two turn race distance here, then you may be waiting a while for something that was in Europe at age two.
-snip-
But good luck to us.

Admittedly I know little about the operations of racing overseas, so thanks for the details. Good luck to TGW and our wagers. I certainly hopes he makes the race.
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Update:
2/12/15 UAE 2000 Guineas:
#3 - Mubtaahij (IRE) is the listed 3/5 favorite and he has a new jockey (P. Dobbs) for this race.
#6 - Maftool (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 150/1)
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Quote: ontariodealer

had this one in my horses to watch, effortlessly, he is in wed's 8th at tampa.

Thanks for the heads up on her. :)

Quote: Keeneone

Admittedly I know little about the operations of racing overseas, so...

Not that you would, but don't mistake me for anything like an expert on European racing at all. For years I've really just paid attention for one angle and only one: what tends to happen when they ship over, when, how, under what circumstances before, during, and after their introduction at North American tracks. Especially since my wallet and I pay particular attention to grass racing here, so some attention to what refugee or invader Euros do is pretty much required. I don't imagine you were planning to, but don't ask me to try to make a line for the Epsom Derby or the Arc. No can do.

From the linked report you provided for us above:

Quote: Steve Andersen @Daily Racing Form

...and will not train at Santa Anita for the remainder of February...

[Ugh.]

“We’ll leave him there for two weeks and let it drain. This is not a long-term problem.”

[Ehhhh. Refer to some earlier remarks by Mr. S.P. Horsedropping.]

[Editorial grunts and groans added by me, DD.]

It is not a long-term problem because I think my exactas involving him as one of the wagering interests will now most likely be croaked before ever getting to see a "long-term." Memo to Desormeaux stable: Thanks a lot for letting us know about this a week ago before Pool #2 when you discovered it, Keith.

[/end snivel][/terminate whine]

RE: "Dubai World Cup Carnival" and Mubtaahij in the UAE 2000 Guineas:

Quote: DrawingDead

I think it is scheduled at 7:55 AM Pacific (7:55 PM local time at Meydan Racecourse, in Dubai (UAE)).

So it is: Race #3 at Meydan, 7:55 AM Pacific/10:55 AM Eastern tomorrow. Besides streaming video over the web, the race card from Meydan is also being broadcast on HRTV starting at 7:00 AM Pacific. Not often that I look forward to anything happening at the uncivilized hour of seven or eight in the morning on a Thursday, but I am looking forward to seeing the race, even if I don't know Meydan racing from Shinola. I see the major ADW (Advance Deposit Wagering) platforms like Xpressbet & Twinspires are taking American wagers on it. I don't know about any racebooks.

I see they assign a ten pound weight allowance to northern hemisphere three year-olds vs. southern hemisphere three year-olds, for the age difference of about six months between the breeding seasons.

Saturday 2/14 has a few races worth mentioning:

Tampa Bay #3 (AOC 75k - 1mile40yards)
2 - Tam O'Shanter (W Hill 125/1)
6 - Hashtag Bourbon (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 150/1) - HB was highly regarded and the second betting choice to Carpe Diem in the Breeders Futurity @ Keeneland last out in the fall. Finished 9th in that one, was injured at some point, but has been in training at Tampa Bay (5 published works) for his return.
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Gulfstream Park #5 (MSW - 1 1/8mile)
3 - Gold Shield (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 125/1, Westgate 150/1)
6 - River Date (W Hill 175/1)
-Another interesting Gulfstream long distance 3 year old race. I have no delusions that these maiden races will produce the next Derby winner. It is getting late to win and then win again to earn points for the Derby. Just in case, I will continue to mention and watch these runners.
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Golden Gate #7 Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby (200k - 1 1/8mile - Synthetic)
2 - Indianaughty (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 150/1)
3 - Metaboss (Wynn 150/1, Westgate 100/1)
5 - Cross the Line (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 85/1)
7 - Soul Driver (Wynn 175/1)
8 - Stand and Salute (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 175/1)
9 - Conquest Typhoon (Wynn 175/1, W Hill 125/1, Westgate 200/1)
10 - Mischief Clem (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 75/1)
-This one earns Derby points, so the runners will show up. It could be called the J. Hollendorfer Derby (he has 3 runners in this one).

Quote: DrawingDead

RE: "Dubai World Cup Carnival" and Mubtaahij in the UAE 2000 .

Ok, how the heck do you say that name? Moob-tah-AH-ehzj? That's as close as I can figure.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Ok, how the heck do you say that name? Moob-tah-AH-ehzj? That's as close as I can figure.

After hearing the race caller of his recent events: Moob-ta-hidge (3 syllables and the last syllable rhymes with smidge).

What he said.

Mubtaahij ran a solid 2nd even though I'm a little disappointed. I thought he had the measure of the Godolphin horse but that stable (Bin Suroor) is absolutely flying. Everything they send out wins by streets.

I hope MDK has left some in the tank for DWC night otherwise no chance of headed state side.

Indianaughty runs in the El Camino Real on Saturday drawn 2. I still think he will be better on dirt but this horse has a big reputation and should dispatch of these......

Quote: Tomspur

Mubtaahij ran a solid 2nd even though I'm a little disappointed. I thought he had the measure of the Godolphin horse but that stable (Bin Suroor) is absolutely flying. Everything they send out wins by streets.

I hope MDK has left some in the tank for DWC night otherwise no chance of headed state side.

Indianaughty runs in the El Camino Real on Saturday drawn 2. I still think he will be better on dirt but this horse has a big reputation and should dispatch of these......

Finally found time to watch the race. It turned into a good one and was very reminiscent of Dortmund vs. Firing line. Maftool missed the break in their last encounter and rebounded nicely today. A little rivalry may be developing between these two.
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2/12 Fairgrounds race #5 (MSW 1 mile 70 yards)
#7 - Hottap (W Hill 200/1)
-Ran second as the favorite to Comfort in this race.

Quote: Keeneone

Another listed horse for Thursday 2/12/15:
Fairgrounds race #5 (MSW 1 mile 70 yards)
#7 - Hottap (W Hill 200/1)

Quote: DrawingDead

This looks like he could possibly be fun; or not. Second in a decent maiden field as a juvenile last year at Keeneland, AWD 7.3f+, trained by Steve Asmussen, and all that looks appealing. But. That's also the last and only time he's hit the board. On Thursday he'll be making his 5th start in yet another maiden race. Five start maiden can't be what they had in mind when they bred Tapit to a mare who won 5 of 10 including multiple route stakes and a Grade 3 (on turf). The time for him to start paying the rent is right now.

He went off favored at 3/2, stalked the pace, bid, and hung a little in late stretch to hold 2nd, while getting good trip with no real excuses for him that I saw in this race. Looks to me like he may be most likely to become a useful middle-distance horse. He's a grey that looks a lot like his dad.

Quote: DrawingDead

He went off favored at 3/2, stalked the pace, bid, and hung a little in late stretch to hold 2nd, while getting good trip with no real excuses for him that I saw in this race. Looks to me like he may be most likely to become a useful middle-distance horse. He's a grey that looks a lot like his dad.

I do not really know why, but I have always liked the grey/roan horses.
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Way,way,way,way under the radar horse to mention:

Tough Customer (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 150/1, 150/1)

The story goes something like this....
1st @ Churchill - first race/first win.
4th @ Keeneland (Carpe Diem won) - earns 1 Derby point.
Was going to run in the BC Juvenile @ Santa Anita, did not.
Was going to run in the Kentucky Jockey Club @ Churchill, did not.
Time passes and nothing, until today: 3 furlong workout @ Fairgrounds.
I made my very first 2015 future wager on him after his CD race and right before the KEE race. Nice to see him training again.

Quote: Keeneone

I do not really know why, but I have always liked the grey/roan horses.

I think a lot of people do. I know one thing I like about them: I can find them in traffic on the far turn. Tapit does seem a lot more likely than others to transmit his grey coat to his foals, and Tapit is a productive thing to like if you're looking to stay a distance of ground.

Quote: Keeneone

Saturday 2/14 has a few races worth mentioning:

Tampa Bay #3 (AOC 75k - 1mile40yards)
2 - Tam O'Shanter (W Hill 125/1)
6 - Hashtag Bourbon (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 150/1) - HB was highly regarded and the second betting choice to Carpe Diem in the Breeders Futurity @ Keeneland last out in the fall. Finished 9th in that one, was injured at some point, but has been in training at Tampa Bay (5 published works) for his return.

I expect #booze will take the biggest share of the money on the tote board, but I'm interested in Christophe Clement's Tam O' Shanter. Not really for the Derby but more generally as something whose development may possibly be worth following, for further down the road. He broke his maiden rather easily first time out going 7f, at 10/1 blowing by a 7/5 favorite that had a prior race under him, though he did so in unimpressive time, and this will be his first start against winners and first time around two turns. The AWD of the progeny of his sire is 7.4f, and 7.3f for his damsire's offspring, so I won't do the rest of that particular rocket science calculation between top & bottom to figure out what he should want to do.

Quote: DrawingDead

I expect #booze will take the biggest share of the money on the tote board, but I'm interested in Christophe Clement's Tam O' Shanter. Not really for the Derby but more generally as something whose development may possibly be worth following, for further down the road. He broke his maiden rather easily first time out going 7f, at 10/1 blowing by a 7/5 favorite that had a prior race under him, though he did so in unimpressive time, and this will be his first start against winners and first time around two turns. The AWD of the progeny of his sire is 7.4f, and 7.3f for his damsire's offspring, so I won't do the rest of that particular rocket science calculation between top & bottom to figure out what he should want to do.

That TB race has 3 solid runners in it, adding Alabaster with HB and Tam O'. Could be a productive race.

Quote: DrawingDead

I think a lot of people do. I know one thing I like about them: I can find them in traffic on the far turn. Tapit does seem a lot more likely than others to transmit his grey coat to his foals, and Tapit is a productive thing to like if you're looking to stay a distance of ground.

-Bolding mine- I think the grey just got up to win this race:)




There have been a number of races like this one over the years. My personal favorite: The Grey Pride Stakes @ Calder Race Course.

Shame on you. I must now scrub my contacts. How did they find six of them for that? Must've included some shippers, or extra guaranteed appearance money.

Something a little unusual I forgot to note about Tam O' Shanter: They apparently gelded him after his win less than a month ago.

That 9f MSW in the 5th at Gulfstream on Saturday looked like a "look close, but no touch" race for me at first glance, but the more I dig into it the better the potential of McGaughey's colt (off for 3-1/2 months) looks to me. I wouldn't want to eat chalk on him under these circumstances, but I think he might not be bet down to chalk there. AWD 7.4 (not particularly grassy), ran greenly and was interfered with between horses in his AQU MSW behind Frosted & a well regarded Chad Brown colt.

RE: The El Camino Real at Golden Gate

Differences of opinion are what makes a horse race, right? The Derby winner is not here.

I normally don't pay much (any) attention to this race, or GG generally, but this weekend is coming up slow for me, so there I look. I'm struck by how astute the trainers here have been in selecting this race, in that this field is made of colts that should be exceptionally well suited to doing their best running on a synthetic surface like Golden Gate's main track Tapeta. It is also loaded with middle distance to sprint types, with some marginal qualifiers for more distance. And the few exceptions who might theoretically be better than marginal for trying to stay a mile and a quarter in a race eleven weeks from now appear to have other problems, like the problem of being a plodder who is just plain slow and coming from races with cheap slow company, or the problem of being sent out by a trainer who has had his percentages fall into the basement since returning from his license suspension that took away some of his "magic veterinarian" methods.

For whatever someone else may think it is worth, here are weighted average winning distances for the progeny produced by both sides of the pedigrees for each of the contestants in the El Camino Real field:

#1. Donji 7.3f
#2. Indianaughty 6.6f
#3. Metaboss 7.1f
#4. Ernest Shackleton 9.1f
#5. Cross the Line 6.8f
#6. Harmonic 6.9f
#7. Soul Driver 7.0f
#8. Stand and Salute 6.7f
#9. Conquest Typhoon 7.0f
#10. Mischief Clem 6.6f

The pre-race buzz, to the extent there is some, is about Mark Casse's entry from his "Conquest" stable, and I think he may go off favored below his lukewarm morning-line number. I have no opinion on the likely outcome, and don't plan to get one. Good luck.

EDIT: Corrected error on Stand and Salute.

Thanks for those numbers DD. That Ernest Shackleton number is big! I too have no strong opinion about this one. It is a fun lineup of horses. I will be watching to see who wins and, more importantly, where that horse races next.
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President's Day Monday 2/16/15 has a few races to mention:

Laurel Park #8 Miracle Wood Stakes (1 mile - 100k)
1 - Combat Diver (Wynn 275/1)
2 - Golden Years (Wynn 350/1,W Hill 100/1)
3 - Savvy Street (Wynn 250/1)
4 - Nasa (Wynn 125/1,W Hill 75/1,Westgate 35/1)
8 - On Tap (Wynn 250/1,W Hill 175/1)
-Nasa was 2nd to El Kabeir in the Jerome and he has been training @ Parx for this one. On Tap (great name btw) stretches out for this one and may be worth a look in this spot. Like the El Camino, I do not know how serious to take these for the Derby, and the winner's next race will likely be more important (to earn points).

Laurel Park - Someone recently mentioned to me a 3yo Maryland bred in training @ this track. I do not know much about him:
Ghost Bay (Wynn 150/1,W Hill 150/1) - Won the Maryland Juvenile Futurity (7 furlongs) and has 2 fast works since. Ghostzapper sired, I would guess he is more suited for sprints--->mile, but again this pedigree stuff is still beyond my understanding. Might not be a Derby player but I wanted to mention him.
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Oaklawn Park #8 (1 1/16mile - MSW)
2 - Lawless West (W Hill 150/1)
10 - Over Ridin Royalty (Wynn 300/1)

Oaklawn Park #9 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (1 1/16mile - 300k)
1 - J S Bach (Wynn 75/1,W Hill 80/1,Westgate 35/1) - 2nd Derby pool horse.
2 - Far Right (Wynn 100/1,W Hill 50/1,Westgate 50/1) - 2nd Derby pool horse.
3 - Private Prospect (Wynn 150/1,W Hill 150/1)
4 - Bayerd (Wynn 125/1,W Hill 100/1,Westgate 85/1)
5 - The Truth Or Else (Wynn 175/1,W Hill 175/1, Westgate 300/1)
6 - Kantune (Wynn 225/1)
7 - Phenomenal Phoenix
8 - Majestico
9 - Bold Conquest (Wynn 60/1,W Hill 45/1,Westgate 85/1)
10 - Mr. Z (Wynn 85/1,W Hill 100/1, Westgate 50/1) - 1st and 2nd Derby pool horse.
11 - War Story (Wynn 65/1,W Hill 100/1,Westgate 35/1)
12 - Bold Animaux
-Gotta love big fields for these Derby point races. Hard race to find a single and I would not talk anyone off of their selection. Far Right is giving 7 lbs to most of this field, got the trip and help from Mr Z last time. I lean toward the new shooters @ Oaklawn: J S Bach, War Story, or Bold Conquest.
**Edited to add: T. Amoss decided to scratch War Story due to poor post (#11) draw and possible weather concerns**

Oaklawn Park #10 (1 1/16mile - MSW)
No future listed horses but good to watch for time/pace comparisons to the Southwest.
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*The future numbers posted may be a little stale (10+ days old). I will be out later this week looking for betting opportunities and current odds.

Quote: Keeneone

That Ernest Shackleton number is big!

Yes, enormous for American racing, maybe too much so; an imported European classic distance turf pedigree. I think I'd like him better in the San Juan Capistrano... with a different trainer.

Quote: Keeneone

Laurel Park - Someone recently mentioned to me a 3yo Maryland bred in training @ this track. I do not know much about him:
Ghost Bay (Wynn 150/1,W Hill 150/1) - Won the Maryland Juvenile Futurity (7 furlongs) and has 2 fast works since. Ghostzapper sired, I would guess he is more suited for sprints--->mile, but again this pedigree stuff is still beyond my understanding. Might not be a Derby player but I wanted to mention him.

By Ghostzapper out of a Smart Strike mare, I get 7.3f and, not having seen him, would not have misgivings about his potential for going long just on the basis of pedigree, if he's good enough. Barbaro is one who went maiden at Deleware Park to Laurel Park (Laurel Futurity turf stakes) as a juvenile, then Calder to Gulfstream to getting his picture taken at Churchill in May.

TAM-3rd, Tam 'O Shanter: Thank-you yet again, Monsieur Clement, at 5/1. And Hashtag Bourbon finished last at 1/2.

Quote: DrawingDead

TAM-3rd, Tam 'O Shanter: Thank-you yet again, Monsieur Clement, at 5/1. And Hashtag Bourbon finished last at 1/2.

Good fight to the finish for Tam O' Shanter. Today could be DrawingDead winning horse mention day....Next up: Gold Shield in Gulfstream's 5th.

HBourbon looked rank and uncomfortable in this race. When I saw him hit 1/9 at one point before the race I immediately thought this one could be a "bridge-jumper" betting race. I did not catch the total $ bet to place/show, but Tampa's pools can get big on the weekend. This race is an example why I rarely wager on horses returning from injury layoffs. It is exactly why Texas Red's foot problem creates so many questions about his return.

Quote: Keeneone

Good fight to the finish for Tam O' Shanter. Today could be DrawingDead winning horse mention day....Next up: Gold Shield in Gulfstream's 5th.
-snip-

Gold Shield won. Not that you were actually making race selections but.... Drawing Dead 2-2 today (5/1 & 6/5).
You did not have any detailed comments about one in the El Camino Real later today. You mentioned the likely favorite Conquest Typhoon and kinda dismissed Ernest Shackleton. I think an exacta box with those 2 may be the way to go. :)
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Sunday 2/15/2015 Santa Anita race#8 Baffle Stakes (6.5Furlongs - 75k)
This race does have a number of Derby future listed runners. It is a downhill turf sprint. In these unique Santa Anita races I like the horse for the course/horse with experience over the course angles. Bench Warrant (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 125/1) looks good but returns quickly after running a distant 4th in the San Vicente just 2 weeks ago.

Saturday 2/14 Results:

Tampa Bay #3 (AOC 75k - 1mile40yards)
2 - Tam O'Shanter (W Hill 125/1) - Won in a duel down the lane.
6 - Hashtag Bourbon - ran last.
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Gulfstream Park #5 (MSW - 1 1/8mile)
3 - Gold Shield - Won in a time similar to Madefromlucky at the same distance. He will probably show up in the futures this week.
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Golden Gate #7 Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby (200k - 1 1/8mile - Synthetic)
3 - Metaboss (Wynn 150/1, Westgate 100/1) Won from well back off the pace. May deserve a shot in a route distance dirt Stakes.
9 - Conquest Typhoon (Wynn 175/1, W Hill 125/1, Westgate 200/1) I actually liked his 3rd place finish. Helped make the slow pace from an outside post and continued onward down the stretch (when other pace backed up) only to be overtaken by 1 horse off the slow pace (which is generally more common on synthetic surfaces). I think a similar performance/style on dirt would have resulted better for him. He now has 7 races and none have been on dirt.

Reasons I watch horse races: sometimes there is the enjoyment of the beauty that can be found in it as a sport, and sometimes it is to bet it order to enjoy getting some money now, often it is to gather information now to use for doing either of those on some other day, and sometimes more than one of those things at once.

Quote: Keeneone

HBourbon looked rank and uncomfortable in this race. When I saw him hit 1/9 at one point before the race I immediately thought this one could be a "bridge-jumper" betting race. I did not catch the total $ bet to place/show, but Tampa's pools can get big on the weekend. This race is an example why I rarely wager on horses returning from injury layoffs. It is exactly why Texas Red's foot problem creates so many questions about his return.

He was rank, and not moving at all comfortably at any point. On that race I did do the betting part. I thought the heavily bet #whiskeythemed horse had a high probability of being out of the picture altogether and I bet accordingly, looking for some extra dividends on mine if he was off the board. But unfortunately he didn't quite become some bridge jumper's poorly chosen vehicle for misadventures in racing, or I would have been obscenely well paid for some wager types instead of merely well paid. There was a little over $115k total in the WPS pools for that race at Tampa.

But with the layoff thing, for me it depends. Bourbon's trainer is 12% returning from those layoffs, accompanied with a money flushing sound. In contrast Gold Shield's trainer is 22% after the same time off, with cha-ching background music from returning a significant profit from blindly flat-betting all his layoff return runners. Of course Tam O' Shanter was wheeling back right away yesterday, but if he was in Bourbon's spot instead, Clement also produces 21% winners after a similar freshening as what both Bourbon and Shield had. 21% or 22% >> 12%, and makes Mr. Dead a happier, healthier, wealthier fellow. Further, and just as important to me, the bottom side of Bourbon's pedigree suggests his best stuff may be what he's already done before his break, while both sides of Gold Shield's and Tam O' Shanter's suggest their best is more likely to be what they'll be up to months from now. Especially for McGaughey's Medaglia d'Oro/Seeking the Gold colt Gold Shield.

For either Tam O' Shanter or Gold Shield they're arriving kind of late to the party to try to get a Derby ticket. Possible, and some trainers would be hell bent with foot on the accelerator for it, but these two late developers would still have to take a couple of steps to become competitive for that, Khozan is a similar fresh one that's farther along, these aren't that yet, and even if their growth rate picked up that quickly everything would have to go just click-click perfect for the next few months. One of them was good for money yesterday, but with these long running late developers they not only tend to come along more slowly but also to keep on developing later than others and eventually to a higher level after their classmates have flattened out or begun to regress, and I think one or both of them may have most of their fun later in the summer and beyond. #Bourbon prolly won't.

Metaboss is getting an 85 Beyer figure for his win in the El Camino Real. Jeff Bonde is talking about sending him to the Spiral at Turfway. Probably a good plan for him. And I won't have any interest in betting him.

Worst named horse of the day, or great name for a racehorse? You make the call: #5 "Pain and Misery" in the 8th race at Santa Anita. And he's Derby nominated. Good luck making cute warm fuzzy-wuzzy TV feature stories about him if he gets there (which he certainly won't, he's more likely to be getting near five furlongs at Zia Park).

Sunday 2/15/2015 Santa Anita race#8 Baffle Stakes (6.5Furlongs - 75k)

Bench Warrant (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 125/1) Won over Pain and Misery. He certainly looks/run like a classic turf horse: sit back and settle,wait,wait,wait, and then turn on the jets down the stretch. Bench Warrant vs. Bolo in a mile turf race, who do you like?
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American Pharoah had his 3rd workout today (5F) towards his 3 year old return. Baffert seems to be pointing him to the Rebel Stakes @ Oaklawn. How about this:
2014 2-year-old male Eclipse Champion vs 2-year-old filly Eclipse Champion in the Rebel?
American Pharaoh vs Take Charge Brandi. Won't happen, but fun to think about....

EDIT (Mon. AM): Oaklawn has cancelled the entire racecard, due to weather from Hell (frozen over).

Quote: Oaklawn Park

The Southwest will be rescheduled for this coming weekend. If the weather clears enough to allow training Tuesday morning, the race will be run Saturday, Feb. 21. If the track doesn’t open until Wednesday or Thursday for training, the Southwest will be run Sunday, Feb. 22.

http://www.oaklawn.com/news/2015/feb/16/live-racing-canceled-due-weather/

RE: The Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn (Monday @3:09 pm Pacific)

Dealing with this year's edition of this race is provoking me to get just a wee bit cranky.

The forecast: Currently 31F with freezing rain in Hot Springs, tomorrow "heavy freezing rain" with "100% chance of precipitation" through the morning, eventually falling to 14F. "Pain and Misery" should've shipped in to run here. The more cheery news is that in morning workouts Mr. Z has successfully practiced running straight for sixty feet twice in a row now, because the squirrel who lived under the grandstand has reportedly died; the grooms plan to eat him sometime next week when they can pry him off the rail and thaw him out. The squirrel, not Lukas' horse. If he runs second or third again, then Lukas will help them eat the colt.

The field for this alleged "Derby prep" race:

1. Miler
2. Sprinter
3. Sprinter
4. Sprinter
5. Sprinter
6. Sprinter
7. Slow router
8. Miler
9. Router
10. Psycho miler
11. Scratched
12. $10k yearling & cheap turf claimer

My opinion of the race and analysis of Derby implications: Bah, humbug. I expect to see that in the chart notes next to the running lines for this.

Good luck.

President's Day Monday 2/16/15 results:

Laurel Park #8 Miracle Wood Stakes (1 mile - 100k)
1 - Combat Diver (Wynn 275/1)
2 - Golden Years (Wynn 350/1,W Hill 100/1)
3 - Savvy Street (Wynn 250/1) - Won this Stakes in a close finish (3-1-2).
4 - Nasa (Wynn 125/1,W Hill 75/1,Westgate 35/1) - scratched
8 - On Tap (Wynn 250/1,W Hill 175/1) - scratched
----------

Oaklawn did not run as DD mentioned

Oaklawn Park #8 (1 1/16mile - MSW)
2 - Lawless West (W Hill 150/1)
10 - Over Ridin Royalty (Wynn 300/1)

Oaklawn Park #9 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (1 1/16mile - 300k)
1 - J S Bach (Wynn 75/1,W Hill 80/1,Westgate 35/1) - 2nd Derby pool horse.
2 - Far Right (Wynn 100/1,W Hill 50/1,Westgate 50/1) - 2nd Derby pool horse.
3 - Private Prospect (Wynn 150/1,W Hill 150/1)
4 - Bayerd (Wynn 125/1,W Hill 100/1,Westgate 85/1)
5 - The Truth Or Else (Wynn 175/1,W Hill 175/1, Westgate 300/1)
6 - Kantune (Wynn 225/1)
7 - Phenomenal Phoenix
8 - Majestico
9 - Bold Conquest (Wynn 60/1,W Hill 45/1,Westgate 85/1)
10 - Mr. Z (Wynn 85/1,W Hill 100/1, Westgate 50/1) - 1st and 2nd Derby pool horse.
11 - War Story (Wynn 65/1,W Hill 100/1,Westgate 35/1)
12 - Bold Animaux
-Gotta love big fields for these Derby point races. Hard race to find a single and I would not talk anyone off of their selection. Far Right is giving 7 lbs to most of this field, got the trip and help from Mr Z last time. I lean toward the new shooters @ Oaklawn: J S Bach, War Story, or Bold Conquest.
**Edited to add: T. Amoss decided to scratch War Story due to poor post (#11) draw and possible weather concerns**

Oaklawn Park #10 (1 1/16mile - MSW)
No future listed horses but good to watch for time/pace comparisons to the Southwest.
----------

Now there are 3 Derby point races going next weekend....

2/19/15 Thursday:

Oaklawn Park race #8 (Allowance - 1 1/16mile)
2 - Sakima (W Hill 125/1)
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Oaklawn Park race #9 (Allowance - 1 1/16mile)
6 - Conquest Curlinate (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 125/1, Westgate 150/1)
7 - Hidden Danger (W Hill 150/1)
- I really liked how Conquest Curlinate won his last race. Maybe dirt is his surface. If he backs up that win with another one against winners, he may get a shot in a Stakes event.

2/19/15 Thursday results:

Oaklawn Park race #8 (Allowance - 1 1/16mile)
Magic Of Believing won this event.

Oaklawn Park race #9 (Allowance - 1 1/16mile)
Poseiden's Way won this event.
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I noticed a number of 3 year-old races this weekend Fri/Sat/Sun (@ sprint distances), but it may be best to wait and mention the runners when they show up @ longer distances. It is getting very late to make the Derby gate coming out of sprints.
There are 3 Derby point races (Fountain of Youth, Risen Star, Southwest) and one non-point earning stakes (Mine That Bird). Very nice weekend to watch the 3 year-olds mature in the tougher races and distances.

Quote: Twitter @Scott_Hazelton (3:27 PM - 19 Feb 2015)

Todd Pletcher says the JS Bach will scratch from the Risen Star at Fairgrounds due to fever. He'll head back to Florida to regroup

https://twitter.com/Scott_Hazelton/status/568552604998836225

If he misses more than ten days of training at this point, I'd consider him out as a realistic Derby prospect, no matter what anyone connected with him says.

After the presumed scratch, there's still a lot of apparent early pace competition in that race, on a track that doesn't usually favor it. Forecast in New Orleans is for soggy jambalaya all day and night Friday followed by deep crawfish gumbo with gators splashing on the backstretch for raceday.

Quote: DrawingDead

https://twitter.com/Scott_Hazelton/status/568552604998836225

If he misses more than ten days of training at this point, I'd consider him out as a realistic Derby prospect, no matter what anyone connected with him says.

After the presumed scratch, there's still a lot of apparent early pace competition in that race, on a track that doesn't usually favor it. Forecast in New Orleans is for soggy jambalaya all day and night Friday followed by deep crawfish gumbo with gators splashing on the backstretch for raceday.

J S Bach hits a bump in the road, never a good sign. The Risen Star will be a "splash for cash (and Derby points)".
----------

Saturday 2/21/2015:

Sunland Park race #9 Mine That Bird Derby (1 1/16mile - 100k)
3 - Rockinatten (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 125/1)
5 - Cinco Charlie (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 200/1)
- I have no solid opinion about this one, other than the winner may show up in the Sunland Derby.

Saturday 2/21/2015 - Both of these races award 50 Derby points to the winner:

Gulfstream Park race #11 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2 - 1/16mile - 400k)
1 - Juan and Bina (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 200/1)
2 - Bluegrass Singer (Wynn 85/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 200/1)
3 - Frammento (Wynn 125/1)
4 - Gorgeous Bird (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 30/1, Westgate 45/1) - 2nd Derby Pool horse.
5 - Itsaknockout (Wynn 22/1, W Hill 50/1, Westgate 40/1) - 2nd Derby Pool horse.
6 - Frosted (Wynn 30/1, W Hill 25/1, Westgate 25/1) - 1st and 2nd Derby Pool horse.
7 - Upstart (Wynn 20/1, W Hill 15/1, Westgate 14/1) - 1st and 2nd Derby Pool horse.
8 - Danny Boy (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 150/1)
- I again have no solid opinion about this one, so I will parrot what I have heard from the interwebs; Upstart will bounce after earning a monster number, Frosted will improve a number of lengths with blinkers added and 6 pound discount (vs Upstart), Itsaknockout and Gorgeous Bird have tremendous talent and this race will be their opportunity to join the Derby discussion....blah,blah,blah....OK I will say this, Itsaknockout looks to be the value here. I feel his one-turn mile compares favorable against the two-turn Holy Bull (DDead may disagree, based on his "geometry counts" post about Gulfstream).
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Fairgrounds race #11 Risen Star (G2 - 1/16mile - 400k)

1 - St. Joe Bay (Wynn 300/1)
2 - Tiznow R J (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 100/1)
3 - Bluff (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 100/1)
4 - J S Bach (Wynn 65/1, W Hill 60/1, Westgate 60/1) - 2nd Derby Pool horse. Will scratch based on DD's post.
5 - Imperia (Wynn 30/1, W Hill 24/1, Westgate 25/1) - 1st and 2nd Derby Pool horse.
6 - War Story (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 40/1)
7 - Hero of Humor (Wynn 300/1)
8 - Keen Ice (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 75/1)
9 - Big Big Easy (Wynn 300/1, W Hill 200/1)
10 - International Star (Wynn 35/1, W Hill 60/1, Westgate 40/1) - 2nd Derby Pool horse.
- With a wet track forecast this race it becomes difficult for me to handicap. I did think War Story was cranked up for the Southwest, but now he has traveled back to Louisiana for this one. Imperia returns for his anticipated 3 year-old start.

Quote: Keeneone

OK I will say this, Itsaknockout looks to be the value here. I feel his one-turn mile compares favorable against the two-turn Holy Bull (DDead may disagree, based on his "geometry counts" post about Gulfstream).

You won't get an argument from me about whether he should be here; I do have a future book ticket on him. Remember what I was comparing it to in talking about one turn miles? I compared his race in an ordinary N1X mile allowance favorably to the running line of Bluegrass Singer in a 100k stakes the day before, which I was knocking as not particularly impressive for expecting B.S. to go on and up off that one-turn gate to wire win. See the difference in the fractions between B. Singer's win on 1/3 and the much slower splits on 1/24 when he could not hold on? Not a fluke; the 1:12+ in the Holy Bull was not a hot pace, but was still less easy than setting the 1:09 on the very 'tight' surface at 8f three weeks earlier, instead of the more average surface while going "just" half a furlong (and a whole turn) farther at 8-1/2 on the 24th. But of the two, Pletcher's colt ran the better mile race that weekend.

The speed figure of 83 looks about right to me for that race by Itsaknockout, and on the face of it would be several lengths inferior to the top two from the Holy Bull... but he did it drawing off to win easily by more than five lengths in his second lifetime start, stalking a 1:08 & change before taking over at will, and when a horse wins under wraps like that final time figures become meaningless. He may be much better than the figure, or not so much at all while simply beating up on lesser competition. So who has room to take a jump forward while maturing and stretching out? He does. A similar case could be made for Gorgeous Bird, but this one is bred for 'farther and later' more than Bird.

But I'm skeptical whether you'll get the morning line number of 4:1 on a Pletcher colt at Gulfstream off a recent visually impressive win to get your value bet. If so, it will be because Upstart is taking all the money. I have future book tickets on Frosted & Itsaknockout, and those are still the only two I might potentially want for the Derby out of this field regardless of how any one else runs Saturday, but with that said, for betting anything in THIS race I'd be concerned about the small field and the difficulty forecasting what the pace will be. I've heard some making a case for Juan and Bina. I'm not buying any part of either Juan or his Bina, unless everybody takes back says "excuse me" and invites Castellano to steal it. If there's close to an honest pace, I think it is a three and a half horse race, and he's none of them.

Khozan is scheduled for the obvious conservative next step in the 5th at GP on Sunday, in a first level allowance at a mile, with a small field of six. Without having looked into what's lining up against him, I suppose he'll go off at something like 3:5 in that.

After re-reading the past discussion, your analysis was excellent about Bluegrass Singer, hopefully Itsaknockout will run a productive 2 turn race. He is coming off a 6 week break with 4 listed workouts. His connections may be happy with 1st-->4th place finish as a tightener for the next big prep (Florida Derby etc.). I would guess that Upstart's odds will be lower than 8/5 on race day, but it can be hard to predict such things.
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More Saturday 2/21/15 races:

Oaklawn Park race #7 (1/16mile - MSW)
6 - Lawless West (W Hill 150/1)

Oaklawn Park race #9 (1/16mile - MSW)
3 - Over Ridin Royalty (Wynn 300/1)

Tampa Bay Downs race #3 (AOC 75k - 7furlongs)
3 - Cleveland Sound (Wynn 300/1)
-Interesting 3 year-old from a "what do we try next" perspective. Motion is trying a lot of different things with him:
Dirt sprint (winner), Dirt sprint, Dirt route + Lasix, Entered into KEE turf route - moved to dirt route, Recent training on turf, Turf route + blinkers, now he heads to Tampa Bay Downs for a Dirt sprint still looking for his 2nd win.

The Risen Star is giving me a headache. The rain has me picking horses that I had eliminated when I first looked over it, and vice versa. International Star has the 10 spot, but I don't think that will hurt him that much, and I'm hoping he'll be able to handle the mud. War Story is going to be ridden by K J and if it wasn't for the rain would have been my top choice. Imperia may like the wet surface tomorrow, I think he'll run well. Anyway, I'm guessing.

1. International Star
2. Imperia
3. War Story
4. Tiznow R J

Crawfish gumbo & crab meat Poboy's, sounds delicious right now.


For the Fountain of Youth I like...

1. Upstart
2. Itsaknockout
3. Frosted
4. Bluegrass Singer

The first Saturday in May is now owned by Pacquiao and Mayweather. Just checked for fun.... You can get a regular room at MGM for a mere $800 a night during the fight. Luxor is under $500 a night! Who pays that? Really?

Since it decided not to rain today in Nawlins I'm changing the Risen Star guess to

1. War Story
2. International Star
3. Tiznow Rj
4. Bluff

Saturday 2/21/2015 Results:

Oaklawn Park race #7 (1/16mile - MSW)
6 - Lawless West (W Hill 150/1) - Scratched
Mr. Tickle won this one.

Oaklawn Park race #9 (1/16mile - MSW)
California Coast won this one.

- I have yet to see a routing 3yo come back and win again @ Oaklawn, but maybe Far Right can repeat? FWIW, I am not betting on him in the Southwest.
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Tampa Bay Downs race #3 (AOC 75k - 7furlongs)
Charlie's Brother won this sprint.
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Sunland Park race #9 Mine That Bird Derby (1 1/16mile - 100k)
Big upset in this one when Where's the Moon won going away.
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* I also noticed a post on DRF+ where Eagle "jarred" his knee and will be out of training. Another 1st Derby pool horse has issues.

Quote: SOOPOO

The first Saturday in May is now owned by Pacquiao and Mayweather. Just checked for fun.... You can get a regular room at MGM for a mere $800 a night during the fight. Luxor is under $500 a night! Who pays that? Really?

I would guess the Vegas sportsbooks will have a busy Saturday. The Derby will be run around 3:24pm PST. I assume the fight will began later that night?

Sunday 2/22/2015:

The re-scheduled/re-drawn Southwest:
Oaklawn Park #9 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (1 1/16mile - 300k)
1 - Bayerd (Wynn 125/1,W Hill 100/1,Westgate 100/1)
2 - Majestico
3 - Hillbilly Royalty (Wynn 275/1)
4 - Private Prospect (Wynn 150/1,W Hill 150/1)
5 - Bold Conquest (Wynn 50/1,W Hill 45/1,Westgate 50/1)
6 - Far Right (Wynn 70/1,W Hill 50/1,Westgate 60/1) - 2nd Derby pool horse.
7 - Phenomenal Phoenix
8 - The Truth Or Else (Wynn 175/1,W Hill 175/1, Westgate 300/1)
9 - Kantune (Wynn 225/1)
10 - Bold Animaux
11 - Mr. Z (Wynn 60/1,W Hill 60/1, Westgate 50/1) - 1st and 2nd Derby pool horse.

-Gotta love big fields for these Derby point races. Far Right is giving 7 lbs to most of this field, got the trip and help from Mr Z last time. Hillbilly Royalty still has the best name. Bold Conquest/Mr. Z is were I am looking in here with the recent defections. Looks like a good betting race.

Well that was fun:



See, you didn't get that morning line price of 4/1 on Pletcher's colt; you got 5/1 instead. So much for my forecast of the betting market for that. I'm not sure whether or not to think Frosted had a partial excuse after pressing the pace with Bluegrass Singer. The final splits had them coming home in 27.3 & 7.3, while Frosted backed up nearly five lengths off that. Beyer gave the final time a speed figure of 90, which is a significant regression from the Holy Bull. Apart from the DQ, I think Pletcher deserves a lot of credit for a fine training job for this, and now he has all the Derby qualifying points he's likely to need and is free to use his next race for further education and conditioning.

Meanwhile, back on the bayou nary a gator to be found:



I saw no excuse for Imperia at all, off a ten week freshening before this race that McLaughlin has been specifically pointing him for, on a day the track appeared to be as kind to those coming from off the pace as it ever is. If the one-paced grinder International Star can get there at the wire then I think a legitimate Derby prospect really ought to be getting his picture taken with Miss Mardi Gras. The race got a 93 Beyer.

Tomorrow at Oaklawn, I'm most interested in seeing what level Bold Conquest is at, after more than four months off.

Thanks for the videos DD.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2 - 1/16mile - 400k)
5 - Itsaknockout (Wynn 22/1, W Hill 50/1, Westgate 40/1) - placed 1st via DQ.
7 - Upstart (Wynn 20/1, W Hill 15/1, Westgate 14/1) - Won but was Disqualified to 2nd.

-Clear foul by Upstart and the Stewards did the right thing. I have more questions after this race than I did before it. How is this race almost 3 seconds slower than the Holy Bull with faster splits up front? Were all the horses tired down the stretch? Is Frosted telling us he wants no part of 1 1/4mile? In the end, Upstart bounced, Itsaknockout ran great (at a nice price) 1st time around 2 turns and can certainly improve.
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Fairgrounds race #11 Risen Star (G2 - 1/16mile - 400k)
10 - International Star (Wynn 35/1, W Hill 60/1, Westgate 40/1) Won.
6 - War Story (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 40/1)

-Almost a carbon copy of the Lecomte! War Story again was off slowly and had a tougher trip swinging wide down the stretch. War Story seems the one who has yet to put it all together in one race and I look forward to his next race. International Star is now leading the Derby point standings and if all goes well he is certainly in the gate in May. What about Keen Ice's late run, does he want/need more ground, or is he just a notch below?

The Southwest looks kind of interesting. I'm going back and forth with Mr. Z and Hillbilly Royalty. I'm curious as to how the pace will play out. Far Right will be the beneficiary of a faster pace, and Hillbilly Royalty probably will try to avoid it. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, or if I'm totally misreading this one. I'm guessing.

1. Mr. Z
2. Far Right
3. Hillbilly Royalty
4. Bold Conquest

Quote: Keeneone

How is this race almost 3 seconds slower than the Holy Bull with faster splits up front? Were all the horses tired down the stretch? Is Frosted telling us he wants no part of 1 1/4mile?

Haven't a clue on the slow time, but yep all the horses, except Frammento, tired down. Without the foul at the end the race would have probably been run in 1.45.?? but still. It was a good win for Upstart, I mean Itsaknockout, but not a good performance by anyone, IMO. Frosted is just outclassed with the Derby crowd, IMO>

I do think there was something fishy about the Gulfstream main track on Saturday, at least at the end of the raceday when that race was run, after the long period between dirt races to hold the several turf stakes that preceded it. I don't quite get what it was, but whatever it was, I do think it was something.

To be meaningful the running times of horse races must always be adjusted by a variant to account for changing surface condition, and the simple comparison of raw unadjusted times at different tracks, or on different days at the same track, can be highly misleading... and yadda, yadda, yadda...

But.

I said all that qualifying stuff as a preface to go ahead and say this anyway: Track equalization charts comparing average times show the main track at Fairgrounds producing running times several lenghts slower for the same class levels than when those races are at Gulfstream. FG is usually one of the slowest dirt surfaces among major tracks. But oddly, the mediocre time of the Risen Star was actually more than two and a half seconds faster than the Fountain of Youth yesterday, which would amount to something like about a fifteen length difference if taken at face value, in favor of the race generally considered the lesser, easier, lower rated Derby trail qualifying prep, and even more than that if accounting for the generally slower surface in New Orleans.

And then this: I looked at last year's Fountain of Youth, won by Wildcat Red. In that 2014 edition they ran the half in 46.25, three-quarters in 1:10.13, and stopped the clock in a final time of 1:41.85, after finishing up the last 5/16ths in a little under 32 seconds. That compares to taking over 35 seconds to drop anchor and dwaddle to the wire in a final time that was four and a half seconds slower for the race this year. That's not just four ticks, but way more than four whole seconds, or about 23 of the traditional measurement unit of fifths. That's ridiculous. That would be about twenty-five lengths or more difference if the surface was in the same condition. I don't believe Wildcat Red was superior to everything in this field by twenty-five lengths. I don't think he was superior by two lengths. I don't believe Wildcat Red and the 2014 Fountain of Youth field he competed with was better at all, by any number of lengths. I think this was more likely a better field at least among the first several across the wire, though with a smaller one of 8 starters instead of 12 in the gate.

So, something was weird about it. For authoritative detailed advice on exactly what that something was, I suggest consulting Madame Fatima's palm reading salon, professional casino "AP player" training institute, herbal healing clinic, and erotic foot massage relaxation studio in the trailer behind the auto-body shop on Spring Mountain Road. Because whatever it was, I don't get it, even if the way the result eventually came out suited me fine.

Quote: Keeneone

I would guess the Vegas sportsbooks will have a busy Saturday. The Derby will be run around 3:24pm PST. I assume the fight will began later that night?

If your name isn't nailed to the furniture on Derby day, you aren't getting in. Not to sit. Not even "just for a minute." You may or may not be allowed to take a leak in the restroom if you aren't known individually and specifically to the management as a raceplayer who is there for the Derby. The racebook side of the books, which in most places is larger than the sports side, will not be allowing anyone in who does not have their name on a seat which is reserved for them, usually after making arrangements with management for it more than a month in advance for Derby weekend. The sports or boxing kiddies won't be getting in to the racebook areas on those days. At all. And they will throw little hissy fit tantrums when they are told that and escorted out, as they always do, since they don't read and wouldn't follow written directions even if they did. "But I bet FIE-HUNNERT-dollahs on Leroy to kill Bubba!" (worth all of about twenty-bucks in gross revenue before expenses to sell the sports ticket). I strongly suggest folks don't procrastinate beyond early April to make those arrangements if you want to do Derby day in a book, doesn't matter who also thinks they're gonna happen to be punching or bouncing or kicking who or what on that same day.

Quote: JyBrd0403

The Southwest looks kind of interesting. I'm going back and forth with Mr. Z and Hillbilly Royalty. I'm curious as to how the pace will play out. Far Right will be the beneficiary of a faster pace, and Hillbilly Royalty probably will try to avoid it. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, or if I'm totally misreading this one. I'm guessing.

1. Mr. Z
2. Far Right
3. Hillbilly Royalty
4. Bold Conquest

You had both exactas yesterday with your updated selections. 3 for 3 would be very impressive for this weeks big preps.

Quote: DrawingDead

Khozan is scheduled for the obvious conservative next step in the 5th at GP on Sunday, in a first level allowance at a mile, with a small field of six. Without having looked into what's lining up against him, I suppose he'll go off at something like 3:5 in that.

Gulfstream race #5 (AOC - 75k - 1-turn mile)
5 - Khozan (Wynn 25/1, W Hill 20/1, Westgate 25/1)
- I am obviously looking forward to him running. Small-ish field of 6 and he will be the heavy favorite. A repeat of the last race, with J. Castellano doing very little, would be great.
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Also today, Aqueduct race #1 is a 3yo - MSW - 1 mile event with no listed horses. And yes, PEIC has one entered.

Khozan = 1 to 20.

Quote: Daily Racing Form

FIFTH RACE
Gulfstream
FEBRUARY 22, 2015

3 -KHOZAN 2.10 2.10 2.10

KHOZAN was bumped at the break, moved up quickly to duel for the lead from the inside, opened a clear margin nearing the
quarter and drew off through the lane with an uncocked whip as the easiest of winners

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20150222&RN=5

Quote: Jeremy Balan @BloodHorse

Pletcher also said the colt, a half brother to champion Royal Delta, will likely head to the Besilu Stables Florida Derby (gr. I) March 28 next time out.

"We'll discuss it, but I think the logical next race would probably be the Florida Derby," Pletcher said.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90292/khozan-impresses-again-at-gulfstream-park