First Saturday in May
December 21st, 2014 at 6:34:44 AM
permalink
Video of the Los Alamitos Futurity (replacing the race formerly known as the Hollywood Futurity):
Even though I was actually in LA the last few days, I really have no opinion on the race. I haven't followed the limited number of races that have been been run since Los Alamitos reconfigured the track from strictly a quarterhorse venue to begin running thoroughbred events, partially filling in the hole left by Hollywood Park on the California racing calendar. There are some things that do appear to be a bit eccentric about it for thoroughbred racing, such as the turns, especially for route events, and this was a five horse field, as often happens at the upper end of the game in SoCal nowadays. I don't know how it will translate to other venues. Maybe it was a "better than looked" race for Dortmund, maybe it was the opposite of that, I don't know. Best thing about it for me is that I know that I don't know. That, and the breathless on-track announcement that it is "a new track record!" for the distance which has almost no history on that surface, which was hilarious to me. Beyer has given the race a 91 speed figure.
My calculation of the AWD for the pedigree of second place finisher Firing Line is 6.8f, coming entirely from his grandsires Lion Heart and Hold for Gold and equally weighted between them, due to the absence of any meaningful data on his sire Line of David, who is a first crop sire who stands at Spendthrift Farm for a "live foal" fee of $2,000. I'm not taking him very seriously as a potential Derby prospect at this point. I've previously posted the AWDs here at 7.0f for the pedigrees of both the winner & third place finisher, Dortmund & Mr. Z.
Even though I was actually in LA the last few days, I really have no opinion on the race. I haven't followed the limited number of races that have been been run since Los Alamitos reconfigured the track from strictly a quarterhorse venue to begin running thoroughbred events, partially filling in the hole left by Hollywood Park on the California racing calendar. There are some things that do appear to be a bit eccentric about it for thoroughbred racing, such as the turns, especially for route events, and this was a five horse field, as often happens at the upper end of the game in SoCal nowadays. I don't know how it will translate to other venues. Maybe it was a "better than looked" race for Dortmund, maybe it was the opposite of that, I don't know. Best thing about it for me is that I know that I don't know. That, and the breathless on-track announcement that it is "a new track record!" for the distance which has almost no history on that surface, which was hilarious to me. Beyer has given the race a 91 speed figure.
My calculation of the AWD for the pedigree of second place finisher Firing Line is 6.8f, coming entirely from his grandsires Lion Heart and Hold for Gold and equally weighted between them, due to the absence of any meaningful data on his sire Line of David, who is a first crop sire who stands at Spendthrift Farm for a "live foal" fee of $2,000. I'm not taking him very seriously as a potential Derby prospect at this point. I've previously posted the AWDs here at 7.0f for the pedigrees of both the winner & third place finisher, Dortmund & Mr. Z.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
December 21st, 2014 at 2:06:27 PM
permalink
What a race down the stretch!
I agree DD, it is hard to know if this will be a key race. I do think it was a fast 2 turn race. Dortmund fans will not be discouraged by his effort. Mr Z. ran well, but I worry about the number of races he has already completed. Firing Line was the most intriguing runner IMO, and he handled himself well around 2 turns for the first time and had no clear running down the stretch. Thanks for the details on Firing Line. I made a small future wager on him @ W. Hill @ 100-1 a couple of days before the race (same odds were available @ Wynn).
---------------------
Another horse I am currently watching is named Barbados (Speightstown/Street Cry). Won @ Keeneland last out and then was sold @ Keeneland for $360k. He has since shipped to Florida and had a workout @ Gulfstream. I guess he will show up soon in an allowance/stakes in the next month and probably in a route race (maybe 1 mile+). He is currently @ 250-1 in the futures. I do not have any wagers on this one at this time. I will wait to see what race he gets entered into. He is a true longshot to make the gate in May, but these are the types I love to watch as they progress up the ladder.... DD if you have the time/interest maybe you can calculate the AWD for this runner?
I agree DD, it is hard to know if this will be a key race. I do think it was a fast 2 turn race. Dortmund fans will not be discouraged by his effort. Mr Z. ran well, but I worry about the number of races he has already completed. Firing Line was the most intriguing runner IMO, and he handled himself well around 2 turns for the first time and had no clear running down the stretch. Thanks for the details on Firing Line. I made a small future wager on him @ W. Hill @ 100-1 a couple of days before the race (same odds were available @ Wynn).
---------------------
Another horse I am currently watching is named Barbados (Speightstown/Street Cry). Won @ Keeneland last out and then was sold @ Keeneland for $360k. He has since shipped to Florida and had a workout @ Gulfstream. I guess he will show up soon in an allowance/stakes in the next month and probably in a route race (maybe 1 mile+). He is currently @ 250-1 in the futures. I do not have any wagers on this one at this time. I will wait to see what race he gets entered into. He is a true longshot to make the gate in May, but these are the types I love to watch as they progress up the ladder.... DD if you have the time/interest maybe you can calculate the AWD for this runner?
December 22nd, 2014 at 6:02:28 AM
permalink
Short simple answer: Sprint sire, heavy stamina damsire, strictly by the numbers I have he comes in at 6.8f. But, with an asterisk. I wouldn't choose to do this one that simply. Especially when potentially looking at it for the Churchill surface, which tends to be particularly kind to main track runners with some turf influence.Quote: Keeneone...<SNIP>...
Another horse I am currently watching is named Barbados (Speightstown/Street Cry). Won @ Keeneland last out and then was sold @ Keeneland for $360k. He has since shipped to Florida and had a workout @ Gulfstream. I guess he will show up soon in an allowance/stakes in the next month and probably in a route race (maybe 1 mile+). He is currently @ 250-1 in the futures. I do not have any wagers on this one at this time. I will wait to see what race he gets entered into. He is a true longshot to make the gate in May, but these are the types I love to watch as they progress up the ladder.... DD if you have the time/interest maybe you can calculate the AWD for this runner?
[skip paragraph, this part will be too long, don't read, your eyes will glaze over & you may go blind:]
I have long had doubts about translating the numbers for the turf/synth sprint specialist stallion career of Speightstown (6.4f heavy grass & synthetic emphasis) to the relatively less common dirt data of his progeny, in part because he's been such a specialist as a stallion on surfaces that involve a lot more requirement for stamina compared to winning equivalent distances on most conventional dirt tracks, and also after his brilliant career (emerging at age 6!) capped by winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint he's been bred to mares that mostly tend to reinforce a significant degree of specialization in his progeny. So, with him (for dirt) I make the somewhat uncommon judgment decision to perform the same adjustment for his offspring (when running on dirt) that I more commonly do for newer sires (generally 2nd or 3rd crop) by including his male grandsire, and weighting the 3 sets of data from the male grandsire Gone West (7.3f), the sire Speightstown (6.4f), and damsire of the horse in question (here Street Cry at 7.7f) equally. Doing so produces an AWD of 7.1f.
[/end long-winded horsey pedigree-geek esoterica, resume reading below.]
So, simple mechanical calculation without making any judgment/opinion based adjustment says 6.8f, but I say 7.1f. Because I do. And after enough years doing this thing involving the actual results of thousands of flesh & blood racehorses on the track I get to do that whenever my own money is potentially at stake. He's interesting. Distance is potentially a question mark, eventually, but there's enough there to be interesting to see him stretch, and stretch some more. More so if you've got a weather forecaster who can predict a big thunderstorm over Louisville on May 2nd of 2015, because everything top & bottom produces superb mud runners.
Good luck.
ADD: I see Firing Line has moved down to 60/1 from William Hill. Dortmund is now heavy chalk at 8/1.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
December 22nd, 2014 at 8:05:28 PM
permalink
Thanks for taking the time to post the details on Barbados. I did not fall asleep once and actually read the post a couple of times....
Dortmund at 8/1 is difficult to love when you may be able to get him for half that (if he actually makes the gate) in May. He has done little wrong so I will respect him, but will look for better value elsewhere. Boy is he a large horse. Baffert has stated that A. Pharoah and Dortmund will only race against each other in the Derby.
So many two year olds and only so much time to talk about them before they turn 3. I was just looking at Santa Anita's card for Saturday Dec 27 and a number of future listed horses are running. Here they are:
Daddy DT (200/1 Wynn)
Red Button (150/1 Wynn, WHill 200/1)
Pioneer of the West (200/1 Wynn, WHill 150/1)
Willing To Travel (250/1 Wynn)
Prospect Park (275/1 Wynn)
Rock Shandy (125/1 Wynn)
Cyrus Alexander (150/1 Wynn) *This one looks to have great genes....Probably the one I will be watching....
I am sure there are other runners out there around the country, I just happened to look at the SA card.
Dortmund at 8/1 is difficult to love when you may be able to get him for half that (if he actually makes the gate) in May. He has done little wrong so I will respect him, but will look for better value elsewhere. Boy is he a large horse. Baffert has stated that A. Pharoah and Dortmund will only race against each other in the Derby.
So many two year olds and only so much time to talk about them before they turn 3. I was just looking at Santa Anita's card for Saturday Dec 27 and a number of future listed horses are running. Here they are:
Daddy DT (200/1 Wynn)
Red Button (150/1 Wynn, WHill 200/1)
Pioneer of the West (200/1 Wynn, WHill 150/1)
Willing To Travel (250/1 Wynn)
Prospect Park (275/1 Wynn)
Rock Shandy (125/1 Wynn)
Cyrus Alexander (150/1 Wynn) *This one looks to have great genes....Probably the one I will be watching....
I am sure there are other runners out there around the country, I just happened to look at the SA card.
December 25th, 2014 at 5:36:17 PM
permalink
Yikes! You don't need me to brew a number to confirm the obvious, but the AWD of that pedigree is 7.7f, with a Sire Production Index (class rating) top & bottom that's through the roof by the standards of contemporary American racehorses. I think the technical term for that breeding is "egads, and yowza." He's bred to win the Belmont and then go around again for fun, or else take his owners on a ride to the food stamp office, one or the other, take your pick. If he won the Derby tomorrow they'd almost be unstuck on the $1.7 million they paid for him at auction as a yearling.Quote: KeeneoneCyrus Alexander (150/1 Wynn) *This one looks to have great genes....Probably the one I will be watching....
I am sure there are other runners out there around the country, I just happened to look at the SA card.
From reviewing the video of both his prior starts it looks to me like he's still in the process of figuring out what he's there to do, and after taking off the blinkers last time Hollendorfer may still be working on figuring him out in turn. In the gallop-out of his last he looked to have more in the tank and drew even with the winner past the wire, but once he did so he never did go by him. One misgiving I have is while that mile race at DelMar was a good two-turn 2nd to a quality quick colt who couldn't be caught after setting an unpressured pace, and they both finished well clear of the field by open lengths, it was on Polytrack, and this happens to be an excellent pedigree for running on synthetics. If he likes the hard dirt okay he should be able to run all day; I don't know how fast, but whether he does it fast or not he should do it far.
I don't expect to be betting that race; I'll be watching it with one eye while using the other for either counting my money or licking my wounds from the turf stakes before it. He has potential (as he damn well should) and I wouldn't want to try to talk you off taking a shot with him at anything near the price of 150/1.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
December 25th, 2014 at 9:05:48 PM
permalink
Cyrus's pedigree and purchase price do signal quality, but he needs to get it done on the racetrack to run for the Roses. He is obviously a longshot to make the gate in May. This dirt opportunity may point which direction he will go moving forward. Good race and he will move up to dirt stakes, bad race and maybe he moves on to the EL Camino Real Derby @ GGate for synthetic running. I love finding and watching these types of races. He is the coldish 3/1 favorite on the morning line with a big field, but I would guess the money will find him on race day. Prospect Park is also running in the race and is 7/2 ML.
DD, thanks for starting this thread, I am trying to pay more attention this year as the K. Derby approaches.
DD, thanks for starting this thread, I am trying to pay more attention this year as the K. Derby approaches.
December 27th, 2014 at 8:00:16 PM
permalink
Prospect Park won the Santa Anita 9th race today in a slow-ish time 1:43+ for the distance. I did notice how C. Alexander (2nd placed) showed some real late energy when striding out towards the wire (and after) with M. Smith aboard. I really agree with DD's analysis, he is still in the learning process. It is probably best to take a "wait and see" approach with him. I will check his future odds in the next few weeks (for the Derby) and see where he works out next....
---------
The Pasco @ Tampa Bay Downs was run in track record time (1:21:40) for 7 panels. Two quick 2 year old horses finished 1-2. One or both could show up in a Tampa Bay Derby/Florida Derby prep race in the near future....
Winner - Catalina Red (100/1 @ W. Hill before this race)
Runner Up - X Y Jet (150/1 @ W. Hill before this race)
---------
The Pasco @ Tampa Bay Downs was run in track record time (1:21:40) for 7 panels. Two quick 2 year old horses finished 1-2. One or both could show up in a Tampa Bay Derby/Florida Derby prep race in the near future....
Winner - Catalina Red (100/1 @ W. Hill before this race)
Runner Up - X Y Jet (150/1 @ W. Hill before this race)
December 31st, 2014 at 7:36:33 AM
permalink
I don't know what Hollendorfer is being punished for, but it must have been something truly awful. This one was sent to tease him. You saw how once he decided to run a little he easily glided by the winner to suddenly be clear of the field by five lengths or more of daylight shortly past the wire. Notice his head cranked hard towards the grandstand through mid-stretch as Smith tried to get his attention and keep him from tucking in behind? This one likes to just hang out with his friends in the afternoon, right behind his playmates where he can see them. If the mental/emotional light bulb switches on for him he may be likely to run out of time for getting to Churchill in May.Quote: KeeneoneProspect Park won the Santa Anita 9th race today in a slow-ish time 1:43+ for the distance. I did notice how C. Alexander (2nd placed) showed some real late energy when striding out towards the wire (and after) with M. Smith aboard.
...<SNIP>...
I did see something I think is a very intriguing prospect to me last Saturday, currently at fixed future book odds of 150/1 from at least one NV book, but not coming out of that race. I prefer not to be more specific 'till I've booked the wager.
Beware the chimera of the late running sprinter. Everything about that one screams "sprint, sprint, and sprint." A one-turn mile is likely to be his ceiling, in my opinion. But I hope he somehow does make the gate in the feature at CD on May 2nd, to help insure a solid pace to the quarter pole in about a minute thirty-four or five-ish. Strictly by the numbers: AWD 6.5f. So far Munnings is turning out to be a very productive "win-early" sire of juvenile runners. And this one's female line just reinforces that.Quote: KeeneoneThe Pasco @ Tampa Bay Downs was run in track record time (1:21:40) for 7 panels. Two quick 2 year old horses finished 1-2. One or both could show up in a Tampa Bay Derby/Florida Derby prep race in the near future....
Winner - Catalina Red (100/1 @ W. Hill before this race)
EDIT to add: Here's a video of the Pasco Stakes at Tampa. It was taken by someone's hand-held in the grandstand so the quality is less than ideal, but it seems to be the only version on Youtube, which is what can be embedded here, and maybe it is kind of fun to see and hear it from the cheap seats sometimes. XY Jet is #5 in the black silks, and Catalina Red is #4 with light green silks and the yellow cap.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
December 31st, 2014 at 8:31:34 AM
permalink
Too deep for me. I'll be back the last week of April when I'll expect one of you smart guys to hand me a stone lock winner.
January 1st, 2015 at 9:59:36 PM
permalink
It is 2015, so all the 2015 Derby hopefuls are now "3 year olds".
DDead, good point about the sprinters/milers that always seem to attempt the Derby distance. They usually insure the pace in the Derby will be honest to crazy-fast early on. This is also why your AWD numbers can be very helpful to differentiate between the early contenders.
The Jerome Stakes will be run this Saturday @ Aqueduct (8th race, Mile 70yds). 2 horses from the first derby pool are entered:
El Kabeir
Ostrolenka
As the first pool runners return to the races, those who had the Field bet should be rooting for newcomers to be victorious.
I was kinda hoping someone would give me the winner....
DDead, good point about the sprinters/milers that always seem to attempt the Derby distance. They usually insure the pace in the Derby will be honest to crazy-fast early on. This is also why your AWD numbers can be very helpful to differentiate between the early contenders.
The Jerome Stakes will be run this Saturday @ Aqueduct (8th race, Mile 70yds). 2 horses from the first derby pool are entered:
El Kabeir
Ostrolenka
As the first pool runners return to the races, those who had the Field bet should be rooting for newcomers to be victorious.
Quote: Sabretom2Too deep for me. I'll be back the last week of April when I'll expect one of you smart guys to hand me a stone lock winner.
I was kinda hoping someone would give me the winner....
January 2nd, 2015 at 7:12:53 AM
permalink
The Derby has been nice and easy to hit the last two years. I think this year is going to be much much more unpredictable. None of those horses in the future wager impressed me at all. The Derby winner has probably won, and someone I'm sure has some money on him, but he's not someone a lot of people are talking about. We'll check back in 4 months and see if I'm right.
January 2nd, 2015 at 3:08:14 PM
permalink
Quote: Sabretom2to hand me a stone lock winner.
The DrawingDead Five-Star Ultra-Platinum VIP Horsey-Tout Service routinely does that about 20 times for each renewal of the Derby. And each year has one satisfied return customer.Quote: Keeneonewas kinda hoping someone would give me the winner....
Besides the Jerome, for which I don't have any deep thoughts or even many shallow ones beyond what you'll read in the Form, the 10th at Gulfstream Park is a minor ($100k ungraded) stakes for newly turned 3 year-olds at a one-turn (that detail does matter - one turn is less tiring than two) mile which could be worth watching for this purpose, if, and only if, one or two of several in there that could conceivably become this kind take at least a step and a half forward in their development.
Post time for Aqueduct's Jerome is 3:48 Eastern/12:48 Pacific, and the Gulfstream race goes to post at 5:01 ET/2:01 PT. Also, the 6th at Aqueduct at 2:50 ET/11:50 PT is a 3y/o Maiden Special Weight sprint which drew a full field that includes some well-bred 1st time starters from some high-profile barns.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 2nd, 2015 at 8:06:15 PM
permalink
Just doing some Sat. handicapping myself right now. The Jerome is looking like it will be run on a wet track. May be difficult to learn much from that race....
Gulfstream actually has quite a few futures horses running in different races. The aforementioned 10th race has:
Mawthooq (65/1 Wynn, WHill 90/1)
Juan and Bina (WHill 125/1)
Bluegrass Singer (150/1 Wynn, WHill 150/1)
A. Rod Again (175/1 Wynn)
-Looks like a salty field for this race. A future contender could certainly emerge from this one.
Barbados, a horse I have already discussed, is also running in the 8th race. Unfortunately, he is running in a 6 furlong sprint. I was going to make a future wager on him if he showed up in a longer distance race. I will continue to wait and see as he develops (probably into a sprinter?).
Another horse that caught me eye in the form is Royal Son (125/1 Wynn, WHill 130/1) . He is entered into the 5th race (Turf) for the Main Track Only. He has many negatives about his career at this point (no wins, unraced since summer, no route races), but he does look to have the breeding for the Triple Crown races. It does not look like he will race tomorrow and I will wait until his next race to see if he has a chance of improving.
----------
Lastly, I did decide to make a small wager on Cyrus Alexander @ Wynn (125/1).
Gulfstream actually has quite a few futures horses running in different races. The aforementioned 10th race has:
Mawthooq (65/1 Wynn, WHill 90/1)
Juan and Bina (WHill 125/1)
Bluegrass Singer (150/1 Wynn, WHill 150/1)
A. Rod Again (175/1 Wynn)
-Looks like a salty field for this race. A future contender could certainly emerge from this one.
Barbados, a horse I have already discussed, is also running in the 8th race. Unfortunately, he is running in a 6 furlong sprint. I was going to make a future wager on him if he showed up in a longer distance race. I will continue to wait and see as he develops (probably into a sprinter?).
Another horse that caught me eye in the form is Royal Son (125/1 Wynn, WHill 130/1) . He is entered into the 5th race (Turf) for the Main Track Only. He has many negatives about his career at this point (no wins, unraced since summer, no route races), but he does look to have the breeding for the Triple Crown races. It does not look like he will race tomorrow and I will wait until his next race to see if he has a chance of improving.
----------
Lastly, I did decide to make a small wager on Cyrus Alexander @ Wynn (125/1).
January 3rd, 2015 at 8:39:39 PM
permalink
El Kabeir won the Jerome. I have no real knocks on him at the moment (although he did veer in down the stretch). He is certainly on the right path to compete in the K. Derby. I still want to see how he fares against the other NY-ish runners in the near future (Frosted, Daredevil, Upstart etc.).
Bluegrass Singer won the 10th @ Gulfstream. It was an impressive win, given that he ran a :45 flat 1/2 mile and continued on for the win. The last quarter was understandably slow.
Winner,winner! Barbados scored a solid win in his sprint race. I made a little $ with his victory. Where will he go next? I just hope his connections will give him at least one chance to stretch out....maybe?
Royal Son did not run (as expected).
Bluegrass Singer won the 10th @ Gulfstream. It was an impressive win, given that he ran a :45 flat 1/2 mile and continued on for the win. The last quarter was understandably slow.
Winner,winner! Barbados scored a solid win in his sprint race. I made a little $ with his victory. Where will he go next? I just hope his connections will give him at least one chance to stretch out....maybe?
Royal Son did not run (as expected).
January 7th, 2015 at 8:39:20 PM
permalink
Catching up the thread from last weekend, call this post "geometry counts"...
The Jerome at Aqueduct is a Grade 3 with Derby qualifying points attached:
El Kabeir got a 95 Beyer figure for the race.
At Gulfstream the ungraded $100k "Mucho Macho Man" which does not confer any points toward the Derby:
Bluegrass Singer got a 93 speed figure from Beyer.
And the Spectacular Bid, also an ungraded $100k Stakes at Gulfstream Park with no Derby points attached:
Barbados got a 95 Beyer speed figure from that.
I sometimes quibble with Beyer's numbers, but not here. Of last weekend's 3 y/o stakes, I was most impressed by Barbados in his sprint. Something to bear in mind when looking at raw unadjusted times is that the early fractions in a one-turn mile can be deceiving at first glance, because they are unaffected by the much more difficult task of running on the turn. A similar half mile time in a sprint can actually be more of an accomplishment for that reason, as it does include the turn. Here's a comparison with a first level 3 y/o restricted allowance for "non-winners other than" at the same track and distance on Sunday won by an inexperienced but promising and well-bred Todd Pletcher colt.
Sat-Stks: 23.10 44.98 1:09.39 1:22.26 Final: 1:35.83 (Bluegrass Singer) CHART 1/7/15 GP-Race#10
Sun-Alw: 22.13 44.33 1:08.91 1:21.73 Final: 1:35.04 (Itsaknockout) CHART 1/8/15 GP Race#4
Those would be eye-popping fractions for a mile at a track where that distance is around two turns, or any race at any track involving two turns. But in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, not so much at all, especially when the track surface is "tight." It really is THAT much easier for racehorses to run straight than when they are running on a turn. At this point I would actually like the Derby chances of Sunday's somewhat obscure allowance race winner a lot better than I would the winner of that 8f $100k stakes the day before. And when Barbados stalked a pace of 44.91 in his sprint before taking over the race as his rider pleased, that showed me more than either of those even though it was in a sprint and it was not as "fast" simply by the clock, because much of that half-mile was done on the turn.
Last week I welcomed a new addition to my little future book stable, named Bolo, at 100/1. I could've had him at 150/1, but I waited just a little too long to pull the trigger. Though I'd still have taken him as low as about 40-ish.
Yes, that was a turf race. And he has never raced on dirt. And for several reasons I'm just fine with that in this case.
The Jerome at Aqueduct is a Grade 3 with Derby qualifying points attached:
El Kabeir got a 95 Beyer figure for the race.
At Gulfstream the ungraded $100k "Mucho Macho Man" which does not confer any points toward the Derby:
Bluegrass Singer got a 93 speed figure from Beyer.
And the Spectacular Bid, also an ungraded $100k Stakes at Gulfstream Park with no Derby points attached:
Barbados got a 95 Beyer speed figure from that.
I sometimes quibble with Beyer's numbers, but not here. Of last weekend's 3 y/o stakes, I was most impressed by Barbados in his sprint. Something to bear in mind when looking at raw unadjusted times is that the early fractions in a one-turn mile can be deceiving at first glance, because they are unaffected by the much more difficult task of running on the turn. A similar half mile time in a sprint can actually be more of an accomplishment for that reason, as it does include the turn. Here's a comparison with a first level 3 y/o restricted allowance for "non-winners other than" at the same track and distance on Sunday won by an inexperienced but promising and well-bred Todd Pletcher colt.
Sat-Stks: 23.10 44.98 1:09.39 1:22.26 Final: 1:35.83 (Bluegrass Singer) CHART 1/7/15 GP-Race#10
Sun-Alw: 22.13 44.33 1:08.91 1:21.73 Final: 1:35.04 (Itsaknockout) CHART 1/8/15 GP Race#4
Those would be eye-popping fractions for a mile at a track where that distance is around two turns, or any race at any track involving two turns. But in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, not so much at all, especially when the track surface is "tight." It really is THAT much easier for racehorses to run straight than when they are running on a turn. At this point I would actually like the Derby chances of Sunday's somewhat obscure allowance race winner a lot better than I would the winner of that 8f $100k stakes the day before. And when Barbados stalked a pace of 44.91 in his sprint before taking over the race as his rider pleased, that showed me more than either of those even though it was in a sprint and it was not as "fast" simply by the clock, because much of that half-mile was done on the turn.
Last week I welcomed a new addition to my little future book stable, named Bolo, at 100/1. I could've had him at 150/1, but I waited just a little too long to pull the trigger. Though I'd still have taken him as low as about 40-ish.
Yes, that was a turf race. And he has never raced on dirt. And for several reasons I'm just fine with that in this case.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 8th, 2015 at 1:11:15 PM
permalink
Bolo's win was quite nice in the Logan. He reminds me of Barbados in one way: they both may get a shot at a dirt route race to test Derby possibilities. Bolo was 175/1 @ Wynn before that race, but that price is probably long gone.
----------
Hypothetically, if Bluegrass Singer and Itsaknockout raced against each other in their next race, I would still prefer Bluegrass Singer. A front running stakes winner vs a pressing AOC winner with a faster time (and carrying 4 lbs more). But this is splitting hairs. I have no solid opinion on these for the Derby.
----------
Royal Son got his first win today @ Gulfstream in a slow mile MSW race (1:37.30) (via DQ of the winner). I hope this is the correct way to post video link, DD what is the format you use to include the video?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCJICyifuRA
----------
The Sham @ Santa Anita (6th race) on Sat the 10th:
Calculator (from pool #1) is looking for his first win and may be favored.
----------
Hypothetically, if Bluegrass Singer and Itsaknockout raced against each other in their next race, I would still prefer Bluegrass Singer. A front running stakes winner vs a pressing AOC winner with a faster time (and carrying 4 lbs more). But this is splitting hairs. I have no solid opinion on these for the Derby.
----------
Royal Son got his first win today @ Gulfstream in a slow mile MSW race (1:37.30) (via DQ of the winner). I hope this is the correct way to post video link, DD what is the format you use to include the video?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCJICyifuRA
----------
The Sham @ Santa Anita (6th race) on Sat the 10th:
Calculator (from pool #1) is looking for his first win and may be favored.
January 8th, 2015 at 2:10:57 PM
permalink
Nothing really wrong with doing it that way if you like, but if you want to embed a Youtube so it appears as a playable video here rather than a link to play elsewhere:Quote: KeeneoneI hope this is the correct way to post video link, DD what is the format you use to include the video?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCJICyifuRA
1 Start with a left bracket: " [ "
2. Immediately followed by the phrase: " Youtube= "
3. Then insert ONLY the part of the Youtube video's web address that appears after the original link's " = " sign, which in this case is the string of letters " yCJICyifuRA "
4. And finally close the brackets with " ] "
Basically assassinate everything in middle of the link before the equals sign except the term youtube, and also get rid of the web geek letters & symbols before that term, and bracket the result. So in this case it would look like this {Youtube=yCJICyifuRA} except that I intentionally used the wrong squiggly type of brackets so you could see the code behind it instead of the video. It only works with Youtubes, and not with "Flash" videos of the sort the Racing Form and Bloodhorse use. I think the comprehension of discussion in this kind of thread benefits from embedding videos. And is also just more fun to look at, probably even more so for people who are not quite so horsey as several of us, and who most likely don't have subscriptions for unlimited use of video replays from DRF or Brisnet or Equibase or the like.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 8th, 2015 at 9:08:45 PM
permalink
Thank you for the instructions DD. I will post a few "key" races that show Carpe Diem's talents:
Keeneland - Breeders Futurity (Oct 4, 2014)
Watch for the times Johnny V. (#5 Carpe Diem's Jockey) looks back for competition. 1st time this race has been run over conventional dirt in many years.
Santa Anita - Breeders Cup Juvenile (Nov 1, 2014)
Speed favoring track on this day (as Drawing Dead has discussed earlier) with 2 horses closing. Watch the far turn run by #9 - Carpe Diem and #7 Texas Red. Texas Red gets the best of it, even forcing Carpe Diem out a bit. I really like how strong Carpe Diem finished up down the stretch. Texas Red got "the jump" in this one race, but I prefer Carpe Diem moving forward.
Keeneland - Breeders Futurity (Oct 4, 2014)
Watch for the times Johnny V. (#5 Carpe Diem's Jockey) looks back for competition. 1st time this race has been run over conventional dirt in many years.
Santa Anita - Breeders Cup Juvenile (Nov 1, 2014)
Speed favoring track on this day (as Drawing Dead has discussed earlier) with 2 horses closing. Watch the far turn run by #9 - Carpe Diem and #7 Texas Red. Texas Red gets the best of it, even forcing Carpe Diem out a bit. I really like how strong Carpe Diem finished up down the stretch. Texas Red got "the jump" in this one race, but I prefer Carpe Diem moving forward.
January 9th, 2015 at 10:11:14 PM
permalink
Handicapped the Sham and not really in love with any of the runners. Calculator should be the favorite (all things considered), but I am having a hard time looking past his 2+ month layoff and low odds (in this race (8/5 morning line) and the Derby futures (Wynn 50/1, W. Hill 65/1)). There are many new faces he will be up against on Saturday. One horse that I did consider (but will pass on betting him right now) was Rock Shandy (8-1 Morning line) and the Derby future (Wynn 150/1). This will be his first dirt start and is clearly a test to see if he has what it takes. They opted out of the E. Logan (and maybe avoid Bolo?) to run in this one. Like his pedigree and his 2 recent dirt works.
----------
Could be worth watching....I noticed 2 horses in the 5th race (1mile70yds MSW) @ Aqueduct Sun the 11th:
March (Wynn 200/1)
Wild Dynaformer (Wynn 250/1)
----------
Odds update:
Cyrus Alexander has shown up in the W.Hill futures (175/1). I took a little more action on him at that price.
Barbados (Wynn 200/1, W. Hill 125/1)
Bluegrass Singer (Wynn 125/1, W. Hill 75/1)
Bolo (Wynn 125/1, W. Hill 100/1)
----------
Could be worth watching....I noticed 2 horses in the 5th race (1mile70yds MSW) @ Aqueduct Sun the 11th:
March (Wynn 200/1)
Wild Dynaformer (Wynn 250/1)
----------
Odds update:
Cyrus Alexander has shown up in the W.Hill futures (175/1). I took a little more action on him at that price.
Barbados (Wynn 200/1, W. Hill 125/1)
Bluegrass Singer (Wynn 125/1, W. Hill 75/1)
Bolo (Wynn 125/1, W. Hill 100/1)
January 10th, 2015 at 9:52:15 AM
permalink
The Sham looks like a peculiar race to me. And it looks light for a Grade 3. Unless one of them (other than the likely heavy favorite) who appear to be "taking a shot" at a new surface and/or distance pops up big... or several do. Who knows? I don't.
My AWD calculations for this field, since there seems to be a little interest in these numbers:
#1 St. Joe Bay 7.4
#2 Pioneer of the West 7.1
#3 Rockinatten 7.1
#4 Unblunted 6.3
#5 Rock Shandy 7.6
#6 Papacoolpapacool 7.9
#7 Calculator 6.7
#8 Hero Ten All 7.3
Unless the surface has been heavily worked to open it up a lot and is deeper and playing differently than it has been, I won't give much weight to this metric for handicapping this race, but rather I will be treating it as a tool to evaluate the chances of any colt who runs well today to carry on with it on the trail leading towards Churchill in May. I plan to be making the donuts today in three of the turf races at Gulfstream, and probably just sitting back to watch this one at Santa Anita.
I should've done some line shopping on my Bolo wager. The difference between a 100/1 & a 125/1 ticket eventually matters in the grand scheme of things. I get an AWD of 7.6f for Bolo's pedigree by the way.
My AWD calculations for this field, since there seems to be a little interest in these numbers:
#1 St. Joe Bay 7.4
#2 Pioneer of the West 7.1
#3 Rockinatten 7.1
#4 Unblunted 6.3
#5 Rock Shandy 7.6
#6 Papacoolpapacool 7.9
#7 Calculator 6.7
#8 Hero Ten All 7.3
Unless the surface has been heavily worked to open it up a lot and is deeper and playing differently than it has been, I won't give much weight to this metric for handicapping this race, but rather I will be treating it as a tool to evaluate the chances of any colt who runs well today to carry on with it on the trail leading towards Churchill in May. I plan to be making the donuts today in three of the turf races at Gulfstream, and probably just sitting back to watch this one at Santa Anita.
I should've done some line shopping on my Bolo wager. The difference between a 100/1 & a 125/1 ticket eventually matters in the grand scheme of things. I get an AWD of 7.6f for Bolo's pedigree by the way.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 10th, 2015 at 7:00:18 PM
permalink
Calculator won the Sham with a solid performance and Rock Shandy ran a nice second.
Sham Stakes (G3) - Santa Anita Jan 10th, 6th Race:
The "Western" runners (Calculator/Dortmund/Texas Red/and maybe even Firing Line/American Pharoah(*if/when he returns)/Bolo/Rock Shandy) are really looking solid so far. Other horses around the country will obviously begin to have some notable performances....
----------
DD, I will certainly be considering a wager on Bolo (@ 125-100/1) if he shows up in a dirt race (stakes preferred) in the future. One trend (that seems to be constant so far) is the odds before a horse runs remain steady, but after a win or solid performance they will drop. Are there any other local Vegas books that offer Derby futures currently?
Sham Stakes (G3) - Santa Anita Jan 10th, 6th Race:
The "Western" runners (Calculator/Dortmund/Texas Red/and maybe even Firing Line/American Pharoah(*if/when he returns)/Bolo/Rock Shandy) are really looking solid so far. Other horses around the country will obviously begin to have some notable performances....
----------
DD, I will certainly be considering a wager on Bolo (@ 125-100/1) if he shows up in a dirt race (stakes preferred) in the future. One trend (that seems to be constant so far) is the odds before a horse runs remain steady, but after a win or solid performance they will drop. Are there any other local Vegas books that offer Derby futures currently?
January 11th, 2015 at 3:32:30 AM
permalink
Westgate (formerly LVH, formerly the Hilton) does. They have a reasonably comprehensive list of named betting interests, though not as long as Wynn's. Don't assume the lines on their printed sheets in the rack are current for this; I found they are sometimes stale. The ticket writers at their counter can quickly print out a tape of their complete list of Derby future wager lines which is completely current up to that moment.Quote: KeeneoneAre there any other local Vegas books that offer Derby futures currently?
Among big cheese type outfits, I assume Caesars has been doing this again for this year's crop, since they always had lines for this before, and started pretty early too. But I tend to treat it as less essential to check theirs for several reasons, including higher vig built in and also some problems I've seen with their staff on some shifts at some of their properties knowing what it is and figuring out how to produce a ticket for it when I tried to force some of my money upon them. That problem seemed to happen on their later shifts, so if you decide to check with them I think early to mid day is probably better for getting people there who deal with racing related wagers and have some awareness of what they are supposed to be selling.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 11th, 2015 at 6:06:13 PM
permalink
Thanks again DDead. I will try to stop by those books and check for opportunities.
----------
March won his January race today @ Aqueduct (runner-up Dontbetwithbruno finished up nicely as well). March was the 4/5 favorite and finished the 1mile70yds in 1:43.44. Almost the exact same time as the other 1mile70yds race (4yr old+ AOC fillies and mares) run today over a fast track. Both final times were ~1 second faster than El Kabier ran in the Jerome, but that race was over a "good" track. The replay (not the best quality) I watched seemed to show him running down the stretch on his left lead. I am not sure of this, but if true may prove he still has some learning to do. Interesting horse at this point and may deserve to move up the class ladder now. His sire (Blame) could sure run the longer dirt routes, but I guess is still "newish" in the sire game.
----------
Cyrus Alexander is entered to run this Friday @ Santa Anita. Still trying to get his first win.
----------
The Lecomte @ Fairgrounds and the Smarty Jones @ Oaklawn are the next 2 Derby point earning races.
----------
March won his January race today @ Aqueduct (runner-up Dontbetwithbruno finished up nicely as well). March was the 4/5 favorite and finished the 1mile70yds in 1:43.44. Almost the exact same time as the other 1mile70yds race (4yr old+ AOC fillies and mares) run today over a fast track. Both final times were ~1 second faster than El Kabier ran in the Jerome, but that race was over a "good" track. The replay (not the best quality) I watched seemed to show him running down the stretch on his left lead. I am not sure of this, but if true may prove he still has some learning to do. Interesting horse at this point and may deserve to move up the class ladder now. His sire (Blame) could sure run the longer dirt routes, but I guess is still "newish" in the sire game.
----------
Cyrus Alexander is entered to run this Friday @ Santa Anita. Still trying to get his first win.
----------
The Lecomte @ Fairgrounds and the Smarty Jones @ Oaklawn are the next 2 Derby point earning races.
January 12th, 2015 at 1:51:06 PM
permalink
RE: March
I was watching for his return from his first start and was eager to bet him hard, and while I wasn't surprised that he was favored I was disappointed that he was bet down to powder in all wagering pools on Sunday to the point that I had to pass the race as unplayable for me. I find this is the kind that Chad Brown routinely sends out mostly for education and conditioning in their first start to get experience running between horses and taking some dirt in the face and changing leads usually without bearing down hard to get a paycheck, and these tend to improve dramatically second time out from him and going longer. My notes on his first race in a MSW sprint were: "Chad Brown 1TS good stretch move in quality field on heavily speed biased track"
I thought Sunday's 5th at AQU came up as an okay but not great looking MSW field. I have his pedigree at an AWD of 7.4f, with very good wet track ability, but also with a cautious asterisk because of the limited direct data on his young sire. At this point after his win I'm treating March as a 2nd or 3rd tier potential Derby prospect.
Quote: KeeneoneMarch won his January race today @ Aqueduct (runner-up Dontbetwithbruno finished up nicely as well). March was the 4/5 favorite and finished the 1mile70yds in 1:43.44. Almost the exact same time as the other 1mile70yds race (4yr old+ AOC fillies and mares) run today over a fast track. Both final times were ~1 second faster than El Kabier ran in the Jerome, but that race was over a "good" track. The replay (not the best quality) I watched seemed to show him running down the stretch on his left lead. I am not sure of this, but if true may prove he still has some learning to do. Interesting horse at this point and may deserve to move up the class ladder now. His sire (Blame) could sure run the longer dirt routes, but I guess is still "newish" in the sire game.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU011115USA5.pdfQuote: Equibase/DRFMARCH stalked the pacesetter from the two path, crept up to the leader during the second half of the run around the second bend, was directly side by side with JOHNNY U, pilot still holding something in reserve entering the stretch, responded eagerly when given its cue about a sixteenth later, drifted out in the final stages with the second place finisher bearing down hard, dug in well enough to fend that opponent off.
I was watching for his return from his first start and was eager to bet him hard, and while I wasn't surprised that he was favored I was disappointed that he was bet down to powder in all wagering pools on Sunday to the point that I had to pass the race as unplayable for me. I find this is the kind that Chad Brown routinely sends out mostly for education and conditioning in their first start to get experience running between horses and taking some dirt in the face and changing leads usually without bearing down hard to get a paycheck, and these tend to improve dramatically second time out from him and going longer. My notes on his first race in a MSW sprint were: "Chad Brown 1TS good stretch move in quality field on heavily speed biased track"
I thought Sunday's 5th at AQU came up as an okay but not great looking MSW field. I have his pedigree at an AWD of 7.4f, with very good wet track ability, but also with a cautious asterisk because of the limited direct data on his young sire. At this point after his win I'm treating March as a 2nd or 3rd tier potential Derby prospect.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 12th, 2015 at 7:08:50 PM
permalink
Blood-Horse: Do January Derby Preps Matter?
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 12th, 2015 at 8:11:15 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadBlood-Horse: Do January Derby Preps Matter?
To definitively answer the question of the article: Yes and no. BTW, I am not this Keelerman, he actually knows a lot about this topic. Outside of "unraced as a 2 year old" I find these historical trends dubious, but interesting. Thanks for the link.
----------
Friday Jan 16th Aqueduct #5 has a listed horse:
Bullheaded Boy (W.Hill 150/1)
He seems to have difficulties with the gate and other horses around him in a number of recent stakes races. I like seeing Pulpit on the bottom of his pedigree, but do not know what to make of him right now.
----------
The Lecomte is looking intriguing with listed future horses, and Eagle is entered as the only 1st Derby pool runner.
January 15th, 2015 at 10:43:47 PM
permalink
The Lecomte @ Fairgrounds on Saturday is looking tough to figure out. I like Eagle, but his post (#11) may be difficult to overcome @ that track. There are some other interesting future listed runners (Savoy Stomp/War Story/International Star/Tiznow RJ), but my eyes keep returning to Eagle.
----------
Gulfstream Park Race#2 Sat Jan 17th (MSW 1 1/16 Mile - 2 turns) - This race has a few listed horses:
Thirtysevenliveson (W. Hill 175/1)
Cold Spice (Wynn 250/1)
Old Mountain Lane (Wynn 100/1) - This is the one I want to see. I am unsure of his distance capabilities, but after Itsaknockout won again (in a previously mentioned DDead post), this one has been flattered a little. It will be OML's 3rd race (still searching for a win) and he only lost by a nose to Itsaknockout in his previous race. Here is the common race:
OML is currently listed as the second choice (another Pletcher runner is favored) @ 2/1. Anything near that number and I will have a wager on him.
----------
Gulfstream Park Race#2 Sat Jan 17th (MSW 1 1/16 Mile - 2 turns) - This race has a few listed horses:
Thirtysevenliveson (W. Hill 175/1)
Cold Spice (Wynn 250/1)
Old Mountain Lane (Wynn 100/1) - This is the one I want to see. I am unsure of his distance capabilities, but after Itsaknockout won again (in a previously mentioned DDead post), this one has been flattered a little. It will be OML's 3rd race (still searching for a win) and he only lost by a nose to Itsaknockout in his previous race. Here is the common race:
OML is currently listed as the second choice (another Pletcher runner is favored) @ 2/1. Anything near that number and I will have a wager on him.
January 15th, 2015 at 11:48:20 PM
permalink
As whole the LeComte looks like a strong race to me for an early season Grade 3 prep. Many in there could potentially be right with the top of their class with only the moderate improvement that might naturally be expected from another month or two of maturity... Or in one case, if a trainer with fewer lifetime starts than I have toes on my left foot can successfully introduce her colt to the concept of turning on the turns and running straight on the straight, rather than randomly choosing to do a little of each from moment to moment. Partly for the entertainment value (easy for me to say since I didn't pay $200k at auction for him and won't be perched on his back with 40 thundering hooves around me) here is that one, Runhappy in his only lifetime start to date:
On the basis of pedigree analysis I can only completely eliminate one of the eleven, Hero of Humor, and if someone is headed to a wagering window with cash to bet on something sent out by Gennadi Dorochenko I assume they really wanted to get rid of that money anyways.
This will probably not be a betting race for me, but one to watch carefully and possibly re-re-rewatch to set up future opportunities.
The AWD's I have for the pedigrees in Saturday's LeComte, race #11 at New Orleans' Fair Grounds Racecourse going to post at 3:24 Pacific time (5:24 local time in New Orleans):
7.4f #1-International Star
7.4f #2-Tiznow R J
7.3f #3-Four Leaf Chief
7.0f #4-War Story
6.3f #5-Hero of Humor
7.7f #6-Savoy Stomp
7.1f #7-Runhappy
7.0f #8-Killingit
7.3f #9-Dekabrist
7.7f #10-Another Lemon Drop
7.1f #11-Eagle
EDIT to add:
#2-Old Mountain Lane 7.0f
#3-J S Bach 7.0f
#4-Thirtysevenliveson 8.0f
#6-Cold Spice 7.7f
#9-Caprock Kid 7.0f
On the basis of pedigree analysis I can only completely eliminate one of the eleven, Hero of Humor, and if someone is headed to a wagering window with cash to bet on something sent out by Gennadi Dorochenko I assume they really wanted to get rid of that money anyways.
This will probably not be a betting race for me, but one to watch carefully and possibly re-re-rewatch to set up future opportunities.
The AWD's I have for the pedigrees in Saturday's LeComte, race #11 at New Orleans' Fair Grounds Racecourse going to post at 3:24 Pacific time (5:24 local time in New Orleans):
7.4f #1-International Star
7.4f #2-Tiznow R J
7.3f #3-Four Leaf Chief
7.0f #4-War Story
6.3f #5-Hero of Humor
7.7f #6-Savoy Stomp
7.1f #7-Runhappy
7.0f #8-Killingit
7.3f #9-Dekabrist
7.7f #10-Another Lemon Drop
7.1f #11-Eagle
EDIT to add:
I find that maiden race at Gulfstream interesting as well. I'm particularly interested in what Cold Spice does on the surface switch from turf; his pedigree is not really all that "grassy." It is stout, for getting a distance of ground. The AWDs of some of the pedigrees entered in that maybe not so obscure 2nd race at GP:Quote: KeeneoneGulfstream Park Race#2 Sat Jan 17th (MSW 1 1/16 Mile - 2 turns) - This race has a few listed horses:
#2-Old Mountain Lane 7.0f
#3-J S Bach 7.0f
#4-Thirtysevenliveson 8.0f
#6-Cold Spice 7.7f
#9-Caprock Kid 7.0f
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 16th, 2015 at 12:10:05 AM
permalink
The term I would use to describe Runhappy's race, "freakish" (in a good way). W. Hill did add him sometime this week @ 150/1. Horses that "rush up" (like he did after the start) normally have little left down the lane. I had not seen that video, it will be fun to see him run on the dirt this time.
January 16th, 2015 at 7:36:46 PM
permalink
Thanks for posting the AWD's of Gulfstream's 2nd.
----------
Bullheaded Boy finished 4th and just can not avoid trouble when he runs. He certainly is a long shot and today was already his 7th start.
----------
Cyrus Alexander finished 3rd in a dullish performance as the heavy favorite. Off slowly, improved position willingly, but was only 3rd best. It is too early to give on up this one. I am sure his connections are not thrilled with his race today, but his trainer (Hollendorfer) did win the race with Iancol. Cyrus could certainly get entered into a graded stakes race with no wins....
----------
----------
Bullheaded Boy finished 4th and just can not avoid trouble when he runs. He certainly is a long shot and today was already his 7th start.
----------
Cyrus Alexander finished 3rd in a dullish performance as the heavy favorite. Off slowly, improved position willingly, but was only 3rd best. It is too early to give on up this one. I am sure his connections are not thrilled with his race today, but his trainer (Hollendorfer) did win the race with Iancol. Cyrus could certainly get entered into a graded stakes race with no wins....
----------
January 17th, 2015 at 1:06:08 AM
permalink
I like Another Lemon Drop in the Lecomte tomorrow, I think he's faster than the 1.39.12 he put up in his last race. 1st time lasix for Savoy Stomp, and he should get the best trip. Smith should get to set the pace at what he wants for the horse. I don't think the shorter distance will help Eagle any and the PP won't help either.
1. Another Lemon Drop
2. Eagle
3. Savoy Stomp
4. International Star
That's my guess at it.
Calculator ran a hell of a race last week. I question whether he can handle distances of 1/8 and 1/4 though.
1. Another Lemon Drop
2. Eagle
3. Savoy Stomp
4. International Star
That's my guess at it.
Calculator ran a hell of a race last week. I question whether he can handle distances of 1/8 and 1/4 though.
January 17th, 2015 at 7:08:45 PM
permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403I like Another Lemon Drop in the Lecomte tomorrow, I think he's faster than the 1.39.12 he put up in his last race. 1st time lasix for Savoy Stomp, and he should get the best trip. Smith should get to set the pace at what he wants for the horse. I don't think the shorter distance will help Eagle any and the PP won't help either.
1. Another Lemon Drop
2. Eagle
3. Savoy Stomp
4. International Star
That's my guess at it.
Calculator ran a hell of a race last week. I question whether he can handle distances of 1/8 and 1/4 though.
The Lecomte is complete and International Star (100/1 @ Wynn and 125/1 @ W. Hill before this race) got a great trip and finished strong very late. It certainly was an interesting race. The top 4 finishers all ran solid in my opinion. The start was bumpy (Savoy Stomp got the worst of it) and RunHappy pinballed his way to the lead down the backstretch. Eagle was in the clear and showed little towards the finishing line. Here is the video:
January 18th, 2015 at 12:18:33 PM
permalink
And after further review, I believe I was mistaken about the LeComte coming up strong. Leaving aside the half-mile suicide mission & nutcase display put on by Dorochenko's Hero of Humor & the psycho-horse Runhappy, the legitimately contending colts in this field largely did not develop, in my opinion; I think for the most part they regressed. There were 3 two-turn stakes races on the main track at FG Saturday, including the Louisiana Handicap for older horses run at a slightly longer distance and the Silverbulletday for three year old fillies run at the identical distance as the LeComte for three year old colts. Here are the running times and final Beyer speed figures for each:
23.47 47.17 1:12.07 1:37.85 (n/a 8.5f) BSF: 103 Louisiana Hcp 4+ $75k listed ungraded
23.43 47.93 1:12.92 1:38.81 1:43.21 BSF: 93 Silverbulletday 3yo fillies $125k listed ungraded
23.66 47.07 1:13.35 1:39.48 1:43.62 BSF: 89 LeComte 3yo colts $200k Grade 3
Putting up an 89 won't get it done now that the calendar has turned over to age three, though with an AWD of 7.4f International Star does have the pedigree to go farther. But he'd need to go farther much faster. I don't want to be on anything coming out of that race, unless it was a colt that was taken out of the race by such a rough trip that you can draw a line through it. Thank-you for showing up and trying; here's your gold star for equine attendance and four-hooved penmanship. Next!
That maiden race in the 2nd on Saturday at Gulfstream won by the "other" Todd Pletcher colt J S Bach also does not seem likely to end up being especially productive. It appears to me that it was a slow race win inherited by the front runner. I don't have any figure adjusted for track condition, and wouldn't trust the number if I did because there's no sensible way to create a meaningful variant to adjust the raw time for the distance on that day with the Sunshine Millions day card full of restricted state bred "stakes" races that really aren't. I could be wrong, but I can't see this Tale of the Cat progeny getting anything done beyond 9 furlongs. Pulpit on the bottom as the damsire will tend to help him get that far.
23.47 47.17 1:12.07 1:37.85 (n/a 8.5f) BSF: 103 Louisiana Hcp 4+ $75k listed ungraded
23.43 47.93 1:12.92 1:38.81 1:43.21 BSF: 93 Silverbulletday 3yo fillies $125k listed ungraded
23.66 47.07 1:13.35 1:39.48 1:43.62 BSF: 89 LeComte 3yo colts $200k Grade 3
Putting up an 89 won't get it done now that the calendar has turned over to age three, though with an AWD of 7.4f International Star does have the pedigree to go farther. But he'd need to go farther much faster. I don't want to be on anything coming out of that race, unless it was a colt that was taken out of the race by such a rough trip that you can draw a line through it. Thank-you for showing up and trying; here's your gold star for equine attendance and four-hooved penmanship. Next!
That maiden race in the 2nd on Saturday at Gulfstream won by the "other" Todd Pletcher colt J S Bach also does not seem likely to end up being especially productive. It appears to me that it was a slow race win inherited by the front runner. I don't have any figure adjusted for track condition, and wouldn't trust the number if I did because there's no sensible way to create a meaningful variant to adjust the raw time for the distance on that day with the Sunshine Millions day card full of restricted state bred "stakes" races that really aren't. I could be wrong, but I can't see this Tale of the Cat progeny getting anything done beyond 9 furlongs. Pulpit on the bottom as the damsire will tend to help him get that far.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 18th, 2015 at 1:45:41 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDead-snip-
That maiden race in the 2nd on Saturday at Gulfstream won by the "other" Todd Pletcher colt J S Bach also does not seem likely to end up being especially productive. It appears to me that it was a slow race win inherited by the front runner. I don't have any figure adjusted for track condition, and wouldn't trust the number if I did because there's no sensible way to create a meaningful variant to adjust the raw time for the distance on that day with the Sunshine Millions day card full of restricted state bred "stakes" races that really aren't. I could be wrong, but I can't see this Tale of the Cat progeny getting anything done beyond 9 furlongs. Pulpit on the bottom as the damsire will tend to help him get that far.
J S Bach ran solid, looked professional enough, and is lightly raced. I will add this, it certainly looked like a merry-go-round kind of race. The only horse that could have challenged for the lead happened to be stablemate Old Mountain Lane, so that was not going to happen. The Holy Bull will be run next weekend at the same distance, and may allow for some comparisons with this MSW race. J S Bach is 150/1 @ Wynn.
----------
The Smarty Jones is tomorrow @ Oaklawn race #8 (1 mile).
2 first Derby pool horses: Lucky Player(Wynn 150/1, W. Hill 100/1) and Mr Z (Wynn 40/1, W. Hill 75/1) are entered. Mr Z is out to run yet again, D Lukas really believes in running them often. He deserves to be favored based on his past performances in multiple stakes races. I did give Bayerd (Wynn 125/1, W. Hill 100/1) a closer look for this race, but do not know about his affinity for longer distances.
January 18th, 2015 at 1:50:38 PM
permalink
Here's that Maiden Special Weight race from yesterday we're talking about:
Gulfstream Park in January; Pletcher vs. Pletcher, Pletcher wins.
Gulfstream Park in January; Pletcher vs. Pletcher, Pletcher wins.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 18th, 2015 at 2:16:28 PM
permalink
Strictly by the numbers from the pedigree data, the AWD I get is 6.5f. I would have absolutely no idea how to evaluate his races run at Remington Park.Quote: KeeneoneI did give Bayerd (Wynn 125/1, W. Hill 100/1) a closer look for this race, but do not know about his affinity for longer distances.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 19th, 2015 at 12:17:48 AM
permalink
Another Lemon Drop really isn't faster than the 1.39.12 his last race. SMH Anyway, on to the Smarty Jones. Mike Smith is going to ride Far Right. It looks like he had a choice between Mr. Z and Far Right and chose Far Right. The two horses look pretty even to me, but I'll take the odds and hope Smith took Far Right because he was the better horse. Bayerd, is a question mark. Hebbronville is another question mark, he didn't finish the race his last try at a mile, and I think he'll die off at the end of this race. So, I'm guessing...
1. Far Right
2. Mr. Z
3. Lucky Player
4. Bayerd
1. Far Right
2. Mr. Z
3. Lucky Player
4. Bayerd
January 19th, 2015 at 4:56:31 PM
permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403Another Lemon Drop really isn't faster than the 1.39.12 his last race. SMH Anyway, on to the Smarty Jones. Mike Smith is going to ride Far Right. It looks like he had a choice between Mr. Z and Far Right and chose Far Right. The two horses look pretty even to me, but I'll take the odds and hope Smith took Far Right because he was the better horse. Bayerd, is a question mark. Hebbronville is another question mark, he didn't finish the race his last try at a mile, and I think he'll die off at the end of this race. So, I'm guessing...
1. Far Right
2. Mr. Z
3. Lucky Player
4. Bayerd
Well done, you had the winner in this one. M. Smith flew to Hot Springs for one mount and won. Got the perfect pace, perfect trip, and a bolt outward down the lane by Mr Z. I do not know what Mr Z or his jockey (J. Court) were doing down the lane, but it looked terrible. The time of the race looks similar to other mile races today, but still a good point earning victory for Far Right (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 200/1 - before this race).
January 20th, 2015 at 12:01:35 AM
permalink
Quote: KeeneoneWell done, you had the winner in this one. M. Smith flew to Hot Springs for one mount and won. Got the perfect pace, perfect trip, and a bolt outward down the lane by Mr Z. I do not know what Mr Z or his jockey (J. Court) were doing down the lane, but it looked terrible. The time of the race looks similar to other mile races today, but still a good point earning victory for Far Right (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 200/1 - before this race).
Thanks. It would have been close if Mr. Z hadn't lost it in the stretch. I thought he took a misstep, but looked again and it just looked like he decided to chase a squirrel or something.
Just took a quick look at the Holy Bull. Frosted and Bluegrass Singer seem to stand out to me. Are there any derby pool horses in this race?
January 20th, 2015 at 12:46:34 AM
permalink
Smarty Jones video:
My weighting of the data from the progeny of both sides of the winner's pedigree produces an average winning distance of 6.5f. Beyer gave the race a speed figure of 82. Something coming out of here to win the Derby would need to improve by about 12 to 15 lengths, or more. I'm not seeing it. Next!
Along with Frosted and Bluegrass Singer, Upstart is entered for the Holy Bull, is well regarded by some, and has taken some action in future wagers. First Down and Keen Ice are also entered and should be in most Derby future book lists. There are a lot of cross entries with the Hutcheson, a Grade 3 at 7 furlongs that same day at Gulfstream. I think it'll probably be about Wednesday before we know with much clarity who is going in which race, and what the pace may look like. I'd like to see a lively pace for Frosted to run at.
EDIT: Here's a more recent (and shorter) list of those that remain entered Holy Bull entries than what I had. Bluegrass Singer & Dom the Bomb are still cross-entered in the Hutcheson:
1 Frosted
2 Keen Ice
3 High Noon Rider
4 Bluegrass Singer
5 Juan and Bina
6 First Down
7 Frammento
8 Upstart
9 Dom the Bomb
10 Decision Day
My weighting of the data from the progeny of both sides of the winner's pedigree produces an average winning distance of 6.5f. Beyer gave the race a speed figure of 82. Something coming out of here to win the Derby would need to improve by about 12 to 15 lengths, or more. I'm not seeing it. Next!
His squirrel is getting around. He's developed quite a habit of chasing the same squirrel, in the same direction, at the same point in multiple races in different time zones now. I don't know what's up with him, but you may know that from the way training is conducted in morning workouts, a horse getting out in the stretch often means "I don't feel good and I wanna go home now" because the outer part of the track away from the rail is where you're taken to cool out away from the path of other active workouts.Quote: JyBrd0403but looked again and it just looked like he decided to chase a squirrel or something.
Along with Frosted and Bluegrass Singer, Upstart is entered for the Holy Bull, is well regarded by some, and has taken some action in future wagers. First Down and Keen Ice are also entered and should be in most Derby future book lists. There are a lot of cross entries with the Hutcheson, a Grade 3 at 7 furlongs that same day at Gulfstream. I think it'll probably be about Wednesday before we know with much clarity who is going in which race, and what the pace may look like. I'd like to see a lively pace for Frosted to run at.
EDIT: Here's a more recent (and shorter) list of those that remain entered Holy Bull entries than what I had. Bluegrass Singer & Dom the Bomb are still cross-entered in the Hutcheson:
1 Frosted
2 Keen Ice
3 High Noon Rider
4 Bluegrass Singer
5 Juan and Bina
6 First Down
7 Frammento
8 Upstart
9 Dom the Bomb
10 Decision Day
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 20th, 2015 at 11:29:55 AM
permalink
I like the look of the Holy Bull as a betting race. We have to wait for the changes, but it has pace horses, pressers, and closers entered currently. All of the horses entered can be found listed on someones Derby futures.
----------
I am also interested in the G3 Hutcheson (7 furlongs) that DD has mentioned. A Fountain of Youth/Florida Derby horse could arise from this race. I obviously like Barbados, as I have posted about before, and his handlers are slowly moving him up the distance ladder. In addition to the cross entered horses, X Y Jet is entered. He is coming out of the very fast Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay.
----------
I am also interested in the G3 Hutcheson (7 furlongs) that DD has mentioned. A Fountain of Youth/Florida Derby horse could arise from this race. I obviously like Barbados, as I have posted about before, and his handlers are slowly moving him up the distance ladder. In addition to the cross entered horses, X Y Jet is entered. He is coming out of the very fast Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay.
January 20th, 2015 at 1:48:14 PM
permalink
Not a whole lot going on this week, at least until Saturday @ Gulfstream. Gulfstream's 4th,6th,7th(Hutcheson), and 9th(Holy Bull) all have derby future horses. I will post about them later in the week. I did come across one listed horse running during the week:
1/22 - Fairgrounds Race #8 (MSW 1mile 70yds):
#1a Tale Of Verve (W Hill 200-1)
-Coupled entry and he is looking for his first win.
1/22 - Fairgrounds Race #8 (MSW 1mile 70yds):
#1a Tale Of Verve (W Hill 200-1)
-Coupled entry and he is looking for his first win.
January 21st, 2015 at 5:32:22 PM
permalink
On my first pass through the Holy Bull past performances, this strikes me as the most legit race field for potential Derby aspirations yet assembled for this class, at least on paper. I'm not seeing more than a couple that definitely don't belong, at least to take a shot to see what kind they may be, and I'm looking forward to it. But then, I may have said that before, oh lessee when was that, uh... last week.
I don't have a clear picture of how the wagering flow will go in this. I'm guessing it may be Upstart as the favorite, followed by Bluegrass Singer, and Frosted. But I'm not at all sure. The forecasts I've been looking at are calling for > 50% chance of rain Saturday.
My AWD stats for the Holy Bull pedigrees:
1. Frosted 7.4f
2. Keen Ice 7.2f
3. High Noon Rider 7.4f
4. Bluegrass Singer 7.1
5. Juan and Bina 6.7f
6. First Down 7.3f
7. Frammento 7.0f
8. Upstart 6.9f
9. Dom the Bomb 5.7f*
10. Decision Day 7.0f
*[5.7 furlongs weighted average winning distance for the progeny of Dom the Bomb's pedigree is NOT a typo.]
Based strictly on pedigree data, and not at all on any actual wet track performances to date, the pedigrees of the following produce mud running tendencies in the very good to excellent range: Frosted, Keen Ice, High Noon Rider, Frammento, Upstart. These are good to very good: Bluegrass Singer, Juan and Bina, First Down, Dom the Bomb, Decision Day. Those with average pedigrees for wet track performance: None. Below average mud pedigrees: None. There, now wasn't that just about the most unhelpful filter you've ever seen for a race?
I don't have a clear picture of how the wagering flow will go in this. I'm guessing it may be Upstart as the favorite, followed by Bluegrass Singer, and Frosted. But I'm not at all sure. The forecasts I've been looking at are calling for > 50% chance of rain Saturday.
My AWD stats for the Holy Bull pedigrees:
1. Frosted 7.4f
2. Keen Ice 7.2f
3. High Noon Rider 7.4f
4. Bluegrass Singer 7.1
5. Juan and Bina 6.7f
6. First Down 7.3f
7. Frammento 7.0f
8. Upstart 6.9f
9. Dom the Bomb 5.7f*
10. Decision Day 7.0f
*[5.7 furlongs weighted average winning distance for the progeny of Dom the Bomb's pedigree is NOT a typo.]
Based strictly on pedigree data, and not at all on any actual wet track performances to date, the pedigrees of the following produce mud running tendencies in the very good to excellent range: Frosted, Keen Ice, High Noon Rider, Frammento, Upstart. These are good to very good: Bluegrass Singer, Juan and Bina, First Down, Dom the Bomb, Decision Day. Those with average pedigrees for wet track performance: None. Below average mud pedigrees: None. There, now wasn't that just about the most unhelpful filter you've ever seen for a race?
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 21st, 2015 at 7:44:14 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDead-edited by keeneone-
9. Dom the Bomb 5.7f*
*[5.7 furlongs weighted average winning distance for the progeny of Dom the Bomb's pedigree is NOT a typo.]
Based strictly on pedigree data, and not at all on any actual wet track performances to date, the pedigrees of the following produce mud running tendencies in the very good to excellent range: Frosted, Keen Ice, High Noon Rider, Frammento, Upstart. These are good to very good: Bluegrass Singer, Juan and Bina, First Down, Dom the Bomb, Decision Day. Those with average pedigrees for wet track performance: None. Below average mud pedigrees: None. There, now wasn't that just about the most unhelpful filter you've ever seen for a race?
*Seems like this one should run in the Hutcheson.
When I checked the weather forecast I only see a ~20-30% chance of rain in Hallandale FL. for Saturday. If it does rain, the mud pedigrees may not help "cappin" the the Holy Bull, but your previous comments sure point to Barbados having great shot in the Hutcheson on a wet racecourse. Without knowing the condition of the track and the exact runners I am finding it hard to completely handicap Gulfstream's Saturday card. There is still plenty of time....
January 22nd, 2015 at 3:12:57 PM
permalink
I like the way Barbados has been handled so far. I don't know much at all about his trainer's tendencies and he only has about average numbers in the relevant trainer categories (from a larger but not as recent data set than what you'll see printed in the Form), but this is how I'd want him managed if he was my horse. One step, one furlong, one class level at a time, letting the horse tell you where he might be ready to go next, and not necessarily the calendar or the ambitions and vanity of his humans. I don't think it is any sort of easy 'gimmie' for him at all, he's no lock to me, to even necessarily be sure to hit the board depending on who goes in that race, but now that he has some "black type" on his resume from a listed stakes, I think the Hutcheson is the right next step, to go for a graded score without reaching for two-turns yet, and to find out what the right next-next step might be. And the down side for this particular purpose (and your future book wager), if not for the colt, is that you can be 100% sure that he will continue to have exactly zero Derby qualifying points going into February.Quote: KeeneoneWhen I checked the weather forecast I only see a ~20-30% chance of rain in Hallandale FL. for Saturday. If it does rain, the mud pedigrees may not help "cappin" the the Holy Bull, but your previous comments sure point to Barbados having great shot in the Hutcheson on a wet racecourse. Without knowing the condition of the track and the exact runners I am finding it hard to completely handicap Gulfstream's Saturday card. There is still plenty of time....
If it does rain Saturday, nobody in the Hutcheson has a poor wet track pedigree at all, but Barbados does have one that is superior to those entered who are merely good for that. Of course, you know there are different wet track circumstances. There can be a glib sloppy surface over a base that's been "sealed" by being packed down tight in preparation for the weather, there's plain old deep muddy, there's sticky partially drying out peanut butter sometimes referred to as a "cuppy" surface (see Orb's 2013 Derby), there are often biases created from uneven effects across the surface, sometimes quite strong, and some riders are much more adept at reading and adapting to act on them while others reamain oblivious to the effect of it... it always calls for judgment and careful observation throughout the day.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 22nd, 2015 at 4:17:12 PM
permalink
I haven't commented on too many threads about the Derby as i haven't been around too much....
Anyway, let me bring some international flavor to the conversation.
Last week there was a decent post maiden performance from Mike de Kock's horse in Dubai, called Mubtaahij. He won the 2000 guineas trial on his coconut and has subsequently been added to the Triple Crown trial. He is by Dubawi and seems to love the dirt. He is a handy type which I have always liked for the Derby.
My only concern is that international horses don't really run that well in the Derby coming off wins in the UAE Derby, perhaps not enough time between races?
Also Indianaughty could be interesting as he won on the turf last week but he apparently needs the dirt to show his best. He could be another Animal Kingdom type?
Others I like is Dortmund, he won impressively last time i saw him.....
Anyway, let me bring some international flavor to the conversation.
Last week there was a decent post maiden performance from Mike de Kock's horse in Dubai, called Mubtaahij. He won the 2000 guineas trial on his coconut and has subsequently been added to the Triple Crown trial. He is by Dubawi and seems to love the dirt. He is a handy type which I have always liked for the Derby.
My only concern is that international horses don't really run that well in the Derby coming off wins in the UAE Derby, perhaps not enough time between races?
Also Indianaughty could be interesting as he won on the turf last week but he apparently needs the dirt to show his best. He could be another Animal Kingdom type?
Others I like is Dortmund, he won impressively last time i saw him.....
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
January 22nd, 2015 at 5:21:56 PM
permalink
RE: Mubtaahij
I wasn't acquainted with him at all, so I ran the numbers for his pedigree, for whatever anyone finds that worth. I get an AWD of 8.5f, which is way far beyond being merely qualified to get the Derby distance and beyond, and indirectly also provides a clue to forecast continued improvement as he matures beyond the beginning of his 3yo season. Based strictly on pedigree (both top & bottom, male & female lines) one could expect him to have more than enough stamina to spare at 10 furlongs on American surfaces that are relatively quick by international standards. The pedigree is not as heavily tilted toward turf as I would have guessed, and actually produces higher percentages on synthetics than grass. Not that either of those things are bad to have on the somewhat eccentric Churchill main track surface, which tends to be kind to runners with some turf & synth influence (for ex. Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, etc.) provided it is not in one of the years when it gets excessively "tightened" (packed down hard) on that day by the grounds crew.
Very interesting, thanks for bringing him to our attention here.
In my opinion the chances of several past international contenders have been severely compromised by their human connections' insistence on shipping in too close to the race, rather than giving ample time after going through quarantine to recover from the trip and the major time zone shift and put in a few works (including a work from an American gate would be good!) on the track and the turns and get fully acclimated.
RE: Indianaughty
I see he's lightly raced and last week cleared his N1X allowance condition by winning from off the pace at 8.5f. But the AWD I get from his pedigree is 6.6f. Far short of anything I'll consider for this purpose, so this one's not for me, and personally I'd be willing to take take a stand against him getting 10 furlongs if he's there in May.
I wasn't acquainted with him at all, so I ran the numbers for his pedigree, for whatever anyone finds that worth. I get an AWD of 8.5f, which is way far beyond being merely qualified to get the Derby distance and beyond, and indirectly also provides a clue to forecast continued improvement as he matures beyond the beginning of his 3yo season. Based strictly on pedigree (both top & bottom, male & female lines) one could expect him to have more than enough stamina to spare at 10 furlongs on American surfaces that are relatively quick by international standards. The pedigree is not as heavily tilted toward turf as I would have guessed, and actually produces higher percentages on synthetics than grass. Not that either of those things are bad to have on the somewhat eccentric Churchill main track surface, which tends to be kind to runners with some turf & synth influence (for ex. Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, etc.) provided it is not in one of the years when it gets excessively "tightened" (packed down hard) on that day by the grounds crew.
Very interesting, thanks for bringing him to our attention here.
In my opinion the chances of several past international contenders have been severely compromised by their human connections' insistence on shipping in too close to the race, rather than giving ample time after going through quarantine to recover from the trip and the major time zone shift and put in a few works (including a work from an American gate would be good!) on the track and the turns and get fully acclimated.
RE: Indianaughty
I see he's lightly raced and last week cleared his N1X allowance condition by winning from off the pace at 8.5f. But the AWD I get from his pedigree is 6.6f. Far short of anything I'll consider for this purpose, so this one's not for me, and personally I'd be willing to take take a stand against him getting 10 furlongs if he's there in May.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 22nd, 2015 at 5:23:41 PM
permalink
Quote: Keeneone-snip-
1/22 - Fairgrounds Race #8 (MSW 1mile 70yds):
#1a Tale Of Verve (W Hill 200-1)
-Coupled entry and he is looking for his first win.
Tale Of Verve ran an unimpressive 4th today. The winning horse, Bluff, ran a nice race and the best of his 3 race career.
----------
Welcome to the discussion Tomspur. An international look at horses (specifically the UAE Derby) certainly may gain importance with the points earning change in 2013. The UAE Derby is part of the "Championship Series" of races and a lot of points can be earned with that one race. Finishing 1st/2nd/3rd in that event may be enough to get into the gate at Churchill Downs, should the owners/trainers want to run.
There was one 1st pool listed international horse on the Derby trail: The Great War. He came over to run in the BC Juvenile (finished 4th) and has stayed in the USA. He even has 3 posted works @ Turfway this winter.
"on his coconut", I have not heard that phrase before....
January 22nd, 2015 at 5:28:06 PM
permalink
Mr. Spur has a longer pedigree of horsing around on this forum than me by about five and a half furlongs. I was sure he'd be found lurking somewhere behind the shedrow of this thread.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 22nd, 2015 at 5:49:30 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadMr. Spur has a longer pedigree of horsing around on this forum than me by about five and a half furlongs. I was sure he'd be found lurking somewhere behind the shedrow of this thread.
Indeed, I think I remember him discussing South African racing/horses in past horsey threads (I could be wrong).
Indianaughty (Wynn 60/1, W Hill 100/1).
Dortmund (W Hill 12-1) This is the highest price I see for him.
