DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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November 26th, 2014 at 8:21:20 PM permalink
This weekend Churchill Downs opens Pool #1 (of four separate pools) of their parimutual Kentucky Derby future wager, with wagering open for three days from Friday, November 28th to Sunday, November 30th for this pool. Someone out there will now be saying: "That's nuts; this is November fer Crissakes." Well, yeah. Of course it is. They're still two year old juveniles. Many of those listed won't end up anywhere near this thing for many individual reasons, in most years the most probable outcome is that the race is won by "none of the above" (the always short-priced "field" wager), by a horse nobody is thinking of at this point, possibly even a colt that has not yet seen any starting gate. So? Are you saying "nuts" is a bad thing in this game? House-banked non-parimutual fixed-odds future wagering on the Derby has been available for about a month now from several major Las Vegas books.

Below are the Pool #1 wagering interests, with the betting number for the pool, Churchill's "morning-line" oddsmaker's guesstimate of probable odds to a dollar, the colt's name, and my calculation of average winning distance from the colt's pedigree based on weighting the AWD of the progeny of the sire x 2 and the sire of the dam x 1. I find this consistently useful both for projecting ability to get the distance and also for their probability of continued improvement as they mature over the next six months. I consider 7.0 furlongs to be the minimum cutoff of potential suitability for this. Anything from 7.3 up is excellent for both distance proclivity and a long continued development curve, while anything below about 6.8 should carry strawberry jam if he ends up in the gate for that race, because the poor beast is most likely gonna be toast in mid-stretch no matter how flashy and fast he was in some earlier and shorter preps to get there. I hope some of those do get there, and take a lot of money, as usual.

1 12 American Pharoah 7.0
2 20 Blofeld 6.2
3 20 Calculator 6.4
4 20 Carpe Diem 7.9
5 50 Classy Class 6.1
6 20 Competitive Edge 6.3
7 20 Daredevil 7.1
8 50 Dortmund 7.0
9 50 Eagle 7.1
10 50 El Kabeir 7.1
11 50 Frosted 7.5
12 50 I Spent It 6.4
13 50 Imperia 7.3
14 30 Lord Nelson 7.5
15 50 Lucky Player 6.7
16 30 Mr. Z 7.0
17 20 Ocho Ocho Ocho 7.3
18 50 Ostrolenka 7.0
19 50 Punctuate 7.0
20 15 Texas Red 8.1
21 30 The Great War 7.4
22 50 Unblunted 6.3
23 20 Upstart 6.9
24 3/5 All Others (Field)

I gave this thread an esoteric name because I really don't know what I might be expecting of it, maybe it will become a general thread for a variety of differing opinions and observations on the crop coming up this year, maybe it will devolve into only a sporadic blog of sorts, or maybe none of that, and I don't think the existence of this thread should prevent anyone from creating any others that might have "Derby" or "Triple-Crown" more explicitly in the title as this season's colts move along.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
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November 26th, 2014 at 8:29:47 PM permalink
Most years the field has been the bet in Pool 1, which tells you all you need to know about 2 YO performance . That said, if you can find a winner out of this group, there is money to be made.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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November 26th, 2014 at 8:30:20 PM permalink
I usually make money on this bet, and I'm hoping to do so again.
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
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November 26th, 2014 at 8:34:54 PM permalink
It is lame that they limit it to 24 betting interests. They surely have the technology to expand this. If they had 150-200 I might throw a few bucks down on some names I like for grins.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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November 26th, 2014 at 8:48:52 PM permalink
A couple of the Las Vegas books had well over 100 betting interests listed, with several pages of named colts quoting fixed odds that went well into triple digits for most of them. As we get closer I'd expect more books to open their own house-banked future wagers and usually keep them available (with line movements depending on when you got your ticket of course) at least until we get to the final Pool #4 from Churchill. If someone is in town and is looking for that I'd suggest trying "Westgate" (formerly named "LVH" and formerly "Hilton" before that), or the Wynn, in that order, for the earliest and longest menu of this kind of future wager, as well as on the Kentucky Oaks.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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November 27th, 2014 at 7:26:52 PM permalink
Twas the night before Pool #1, and all through the house, 179 Derby fixed-odds future wager creatures were stirring on the William Hill app & their Nevada brick & mortar sportsbooks & kiosks, none of them named Mouse. For comparison to Churchill's pari-mutual future wager here are their current top (low odds) wagering interests. There are 25 of them that are in double digits, but the list differs quite a bit from those wagering interests that made the CD Pool #1:

15/1 American Pharoah
30/1 Blofeld
75/1 Bold Conquest*
65/1 Calculator
25/1 Carpe Diem
50/1 Classy Class
30/1 Competitive Edge
50/1 Cozmic One*
30/1 Daredevil
30/1 Dortmund
80/1 El Kabeir
50/1 First Down
60/1 Frosted
80/1 Golden Actor*
80/1 Imperia
60/1 Lord Nelson
75/1 Lucky Player
80/1 Mr. Jordan*
35/1 Ocho Ocho Ocho
80/1 Prime Engine*
75/1 Punctuate
75/1 Savoy Stomp*
60/1 Souper Colossal*
25/1 Texas Red
50/1 Upstart

Starred [*] names indicate those that are not in the Churchill Downs pool that opens tomorrow, except as part of the field as a wager on "all others."

In addition to these Wm. Hill is quoting odds for another 154 more Derby future wagering interests at odds ranging from 100/1 to 200/1, for a total of 179 betting interests available. They have quite a few currently priced at 150/1 or 175/1, and 200/1 is most common, but they are not quoting anything at odds higher than that.

EDIT to add: Here are the weighted AWD calculations I have from my database for the pedigrees of those [*] colts above that have been taking enough action in the Wm. Hill future book that they are in double digit odds territory from them, but were not part of the CD Pool #1 Derby future wager list that was in the thread starter post:

Bold Conquest 7.0
Cozmic One 7.6
Golden Actor 7.8
Mr. Jordan 6.8
Prime Engine 6.9
Savoy Stomp 7.7
Souper Colossal 7.6
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
speedycrap
speedycrap
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November 27th, 2014 at 8:29:42 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I usually make money on this bet, and I'm hoping to do so again.

How so???
FinsRule
FinsRule
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November 27th, 2014 at 8:51:06 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

How so???



When the well dries up, I'll let you know how I was doing it. Hope things stay like they were last year.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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November 27th, 2014 at 9:03:58 PM permalink
I love the horses and the K. Derby. I find it challenging to keep up with all the recent news about horses on the "Trail" to the Derby.

IMO, C. Diem looks the value in this first pool (before it opens). At anything near 20-1, I will certainly entertain a wager on him in this very early pool (only the second year for it). I might even consider an exacta wager including him.

The Jockey Club Stakes @Churchill and the Remsen @Aqueduct are run this Saturday, and the winners (or runner ups) will probably take some action in this first pool.

I wish I had more time to keep up with day to day racing. It can be helpful to find trends out there. For instance, I would love to know how Keeneland runners (on the new dirt tack) have performed on the Churchill Downs dirt track recently.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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November 28th, 2014 at 5:54:28 PM permalink
Not a lot in Churchill's future wager pool today; with wagering this thin $100 would blow away the number on the board for some of them. But I'd expect most of the wagering to occur after the relevant Saturday stakes races that Keeneone mentioned, since of course in this pari-mutual pool the potential payout for any wager will be for the final closing odds as of the moment wagering in this pool ends. In the past I've found the existence of both a win pool and a separate pari-mutual exacta future pool interesting. And I prefer to leave it at that without going into more detail about what can sometimes get interesting about that circumstance.

Live odds tote board: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/totedb/tracks.cgi

Track Race Post 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
KY Derby Future 9 37 57 10 82 34 40 17 55 92 35 49 39 50 84 24 18 55 66 9 37 99 34 6/5
Win Pool $23,008 1845 490 327 1682 226 541 459 1047 338 203 520 377 471 367 221 759 977 337 281 1737 488 146 542 8627

The formatting comes out screwy in copying this, so you'll have to line up the columns on your own to read it.

EDIT: Corrected link to Brisnet's live odds toteboard. Doesn't work as a direct link; you have to go through their main page, then select "KY Derby Future" from the track list on their "SuperTote" page for their broadcast of streaming real-time wagering pools, and log-in. Looks like DRF Tote isn't putting it on their menu.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf

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