First Saturday in May

Quote: Keeneone

Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110

This one interests me.

Over the last 20 years 8 races have gone over, 11 have been run under, and one was a 'push' on that line for final time. The median (not average) of times in that period was between fell between 2:02.17 in '07 and 2:02.04 in '11.

OV 2014 California Chrome 2:03.66
OV 2013 Orb 2:02.89
UN 2012 I'll Have Another 2:01.83
UN 2011 Animal Kingdom 2:02.04
OV 2010 Super Saver 2:04.45
OV 2009 Mine That Bird 2:02.66
UN 2008 Big Brown 2:01.82
UN 2007 Street Sense 2:02.17
UN 2006 Barbaro 2:01.36
OV 2005 Giacomo 2:02.75
OV 2004 Smarty Jones 2:04.06
UN 2003 Funny Cide 2:01.19
UN 2002 War Emblem 2:01.13
UN 2001 Monarchos 1:59.97
UN 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2:01.00
OV 1999 Charismatic 2:03.20
EV 1998 Real Quiet 2:02.20
OV 1997 Silver Charm 2:02.40
UN 1996 Grindstone 2:01.00
UN 1995 Thunder Gulch 2:01.20

[EDIT: Corrected multiple simple errors.]

One could suggest that due in part to the economics of the business the greatest bulk US bred thoroughbred racehorses are generally becoming less and less well suited to running classic distances of 10 furlongs and up, and are gradually tending more and more to be dominated by the precocious sort that's better at sprint to middle distance racing. On the other hand, the winner of the race is not obliged to carry the average ability of the whole breeding and racing world on his back while winning this. 2014 was a weak Derby year, but for 2015 I think this is a distinctly stronger than average crop, and deep, and the race shape is also starting to look like an honest to fast pace for the distance. Much of the running time tends to be determined by the condition of the surface at post time which is mostly unknowable before the afternoon of May 2nd, and by racing luck in a big field of up to 20 starters which will prevent some from getting a clean trip.

I think I like the under. I don't know that I like it enough to pay the vig on something that isn't a whole lot different than a coin flip. But I am a 100% undefeated lifetime winner at betting the Super Bowl coin toss, so back up the truck and unload it all on the under with your money.

Quote: DrawingDead

This weekend Churchill Downs opens Pool #1 (of four separate pools) of their parimutual Kentucky Derby future wager, with wagering open for three days from Friday, November 28th to Sunday, November 30th for this pool. Someone out there will now be saying: "That's nuts...

...<SNIP>...

1 12 American Pharoah 7.0
2 20 Blofeld 6.2
3 20 Calculator 6.4
4 20 Carpe Diem 7.9
5 50 Classy Class 6.1
6 20 Competitive Edge 6.3
7 20 Daredevil 7.1
8 50 Dortmund 7.0
9 50 Eagle 7.1
10 50 El Kabeir 7.1
11 50 Frosted 7.5
12 50 I Spent It 6.4
13 50 Imperia 7.3
14 30 Lord Nelson 7.5
15 50 Lucky Player 6.7
16 30 Mr. Z 7.0
17 20 Ocho Ocho Ocho 7.3
18 50 Ostrolenka 7.0
19 50 Punctuate 7.0
20 15 Texas Red 8.1
21 30 The Great War 7.4
22 50 Unblunted 6.3
23 20 Upstart 6.9
24 3/5 All Others (Field)

29 days out, it appears only about half nuts.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: DrawingDead

This weekend Churchill Downs opens Pool #1 (of four separate pools) of their parimutual Kentucky Derby future wager, with wagering open for three days from Friday, November 28th to Sunday, November 30th for this pool. Someone out there will now be saying: "That's nuts...
...<SNIP>...
1 12 American Pharoah 7.0
2 20 Blofeld 6.2
3 20 Calculator 6.4
4 20 Carpe Diem 7.9
5 50 Classy Class 6.1
6 20 Competitive Edge 6.3
7 20 Daredevil 7.1
8 50 Dortmund 7.0
9 50 Eagle 7.1
10 50 El Kabeir 7.1
11 50 Frosted 7.5
12 50 I Spent It 6.4
13 50 Imperia 7.3
14 30 Lord Nelson 7.5
15 50 Lucky Player 6.7
16 30 Mr. Z 7.0
17 20 Ocho Ocho Ocho 7.3
18 50 Ostrolenka 7.0
19 50 Punctuate 7.0
20 15 Texas Red 8.1
21 30 The Great War 7.4
22 50 Unblunted 6.3
23 20 Upstart 6.9
24 3/5 All Others (Field)

29 days out, it appears only about half nuts.

Even more nuts is your prediction of a 50/50 chance of the winner being listed in the first Derby pool:

Quote: DrawingDead

-edited-
Looking at their race records and the timing, if Churchill's Pool #1 field had existed on the last weekend of November for all of them, at least four, probably five, and perhaps as many as six would've been named as individual betting interests in it, in my opinion. If the most recent ten years was taken as predictive of this year's crop, that would imply about a 50% chance that the Derby winner was a named betting interest in the CD Pool #1 that closed ten days ago, and about a 50% probability that the "field" bet in that pool is a winner. That is not what I expected.
All of this should be taken with about 2.87 grains of salt, of course, because as a once a year event the most recent ten Derby winners provide a very limited sample size that could be misleading.

The current favorites (Dortmund/Carpe Diem/American Pharaoh) were listed in the first pool.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
One could suggest that due in part to the economics of the business the greatest bulk US bred thoroughbred racehorses are generally becoming less and less well suited to running classic distances of 10 furlongs and up, and are gradually tending more and more to be dominated by the precocious sort that's better at sprint to middle distance racing. On the other hand, the winner of the race is not obliged to carry the average ability of the whole breeding and racing world on his back while winning this. 2014 was a weak Derby year, but for 2015 I think this is a distinctly stronger than average crop, and deep, and the race shape is also starting to look like an honest to fast pace for the distance. Much of the running time tends to be determined by the condition of the surface at post time which is mostly unknowable before the afternoon of May 2nd, and by racing luck in a big field of up to 20 starters which will prevent some from getting a clean trip.
I think I like the under. I don't know that I like it enough to pay the vig on something that isn't a whole lot different than a coin flip. But I am a 100% undefeated lifetime winner at betting the Super Bowl coin toss, so back up the truck and unload it all on the under with your money.

I also like the under. Obviously it depends on the CD track conditions on race day (as you have mentioned), which makes it difficult to bet early. Any moisture (on or near race day) would scare me off the under. This 3 year-old crop could certainly contain a "special" horse capable of fast times and even multiple Triple Crown race wins....

Plenty of things happening with only 24 days before the Derby....

Danzig Moon, Ami's Flatter, and Conquest Typhoon are considering the Derby, but also thinking about the Queen's Plate (Canadian Bred 3yo race) @ Woobine in July.

After watching the Santa Anita Derby (a half dozen times) I just do not understand why M Smith (Bolo's jockey) does not tuck in behind Dortmund around the first turn. Not doing so let other runners claim the spot and caused Bolo to race wide throughout. He also blew the far turn racing very wide. I certainly expected improvement from him, but everything did not fall into place. C Gaines (Bolo's trainer) quotes after the race seem to suggest she will leave it "up to the owners" to decide what is next if he gets in. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for running in the Derby. What will be his next stop, the Derby or a turf Stakes?

Godolphin now has Maftool and Frosted in position to run. But will both actually enter?

The "bubble watch" (horses barely in or out of the race) is in full swing. I have horses on both sides right now. Things will become clearer after Saturday.

Awaiting the Arkansas Derby entries tomorrow (Wed Apr 8)....

Saturday April 11, 2015 - Oaklawn - Arkansas Derby Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 million)

1 - The Truth Or Else
2 - Mr. Z - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
3 - Bridget's Big Luvy
4 - Madefromlucky - 4th Derby pool future horse.
5 - Bold Conquest - 4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - American Pharoah - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
7 - Far Right - 2nd,3rd Derby pool future horse.
8 - Win the Space

-AP is the one to beat....period. This race does look a little different when compared to the Rebel Stakes. More distance, good chance of a fast track, and some new faces. Far Right skipped the Rebel and has 2 wins in Oaklawn stakes. Mr Z returns quickly and will certainly add blinkers back. He did little running in the LA Derby so should be good to go (to the front) if he likes. Bridget's Big Luvy could also show pace. The good news is AP will be outside both speed horses and can go to the front or sit back and track them. It may not be a bad thing to "school" him a little from off the pace. I just have a hard time believing a B. Baffert horse with his speed really wants to sit back and wait. He will probably take it to them from start to finish (just like Dortmund did). AP is listed as the 1/2 favorite. I have a small future ticket on Bold Conquest, so I hope he gets a top 4 finish.


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Saturday April 11, 2015 - Keeneland - Lexington Stakes Grade 3 (1^1/16mile - 250k)

1 - Divining Rod
2 - Comfort
3 - Quimet
4 - Tiznow R J
5 - Henry Jones
6 - Fame and Power
7 - Donworth

-Divining Rod or Tiznow R J would have a chance to make the Derby if they win and earn the 10 Derby points for first place. They are long shots at this point, but they are still in the hunt.

I have my own uses for these (which I won't go into) but for whatever those in this thread may find in them here are running times and fractional splits for the major final "preps" along with all other two-turn races that were run the same day at each of those tracks.

TrkR# 4 furlong 6 furlong 8 furlong 1-1/16m 9 furlong Dist 6f>8f splt Final 0.5f Final 1.0f Race conditions

Aqueduct 4/4
AQU04 00:49.06 01:13.40 01:37.98 01:44.43 01:50.87 9.0f 00:24.58 00:06.45 00:12.89 AlwN1X 3+
AQU07 00:47.52 01:12.48 01:37.86 01:44.21 01:50.55 8.0f 00:25.38 00:06.35 00:12.69 AOC40k/N2X 3+ (NY bred)
AQU08 00:48.06 01:13.56 01:38.95 01:45.56 01:52.17 9.0f 00:25.39 00:06.61 00:13.22 GR2 Stk300k F 3YO
AQU10 00:49.04 01:13.41 01:37.76 01:44.04 01:50.31 9.0f 00:24.35 00:06.28 00:12.55 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Wood Memorial)

Fair Grounds 3/28
FG_04 00:48.13 01:12.96 01:39.61 01:46.27 01:52.94 _8.3f 00:26.65 00:06.66 00:13.33 Stk75k F 3YO (LA bred)
FG_05 00:47.83 01:12.83 01:39.33 01:46.28 01:53.23 8.5f 00:26.50 00:06.95 00:13.90 Stk75k 3YO (LA bred)
FG_07 00:47.32 01:11.86 01:38.19 01:45.11 01:52.03 8.5f 00:26.33 00:06.92 00:13.84 Stk60k 4+ (LA bred)
FG_09 00:47.03 01:11.19 01:37.40 01:44.40 01:51.40 8.5f 00:26.21 00:07.00 00:14.00 GR2 Stk400k F 3YO
FG_10 00:47.57 01:11.27 01:36.83 01:43.95 01:51.07 9.0f 00:25.56 00:07.12 00:14.24 GR2 Stk400k 4+
FG_11 00:48.59 01:13.27 01:37.94 01:44.31 01:50.67 9.0f 00:24.67 00:06.37 00:12.73 GR2 Stk750k 3YO (Louisiana Derby)

Gulfstream 3/28
GP_05 00:48.97 01:13.81 01:38.72 01:45.35 01:51.97 _9.5f 00:24.91 00:06.63 00:13.25 GR3 Stk150k 4+
GP_12 00:48.25 01:13.57 01:40.53 01:47.40 01:54.27 8.5f 00:26.96 00:06.87 00:13.74 GR2 Stk250k F 3YO
GP_14 00:48.24 01:12.51 01:38.57 01:45.44 01:52.30 9.0f 00:26.06 00:06.87 00:13.73 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Florida Derby)

Keeneland 4/4
KEE01 00:51.01 01:15.88 01:39.92 01:45.75 01:51.58 8.5f 00:24.04 00:05.83 00:11.66 AOC80k/N3X F&M 4+
KEE02 00:48.07 01:12.83 01:38.45 01:44.85 01:51.25 8.5f 00:25.62 00:06.40 00:12.80 AlwN2X 4+ (off turf)
KEE03 00:48.13 01:12.49 01:37.25 01:43.46 01:49.67 8.5f 00:24.76 00:06.21 00:12.42 MSW 3YO
KEE04 00:48.62 01:12.53 01:37.72 01:44.37 01:51.02 9.0f 00:25.19 00:06.65 00:13.30 AlwN3X 4+ (off turf)
KEE09 00:48.53 01:12.86 01:37.34 01:43.66 01:49.98 8.5f 00:24.48 00:06.32 00:12.64 GR1 Stk500k F 3YO
KEE10 00:48.05 01:12.18 01:36.94 01:43.36 01:49.77 9.0f 00:24.76 00:06.42 00:12.83 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Blue Grass)

Santa Anita 4/4
SA_05 00:45.94 01:09.97 01:36.34 01:43.11 01:49.88 8.0f 00:26.37 00:06.77 00:13.54 AOC40k/N1X 4+
SA_07 00:46.34 01:10.76 01:36.63 01:43.26 01:49.89 8.5f 00:25.87 00:06.63 00:13.26 GR1 Stk400k F 3YO
SA_08 00:46.36 01:10.57 01:35.68 01:42.21 01:48.73 9.0f 00:25.11 00:06.53 00:13.05 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Santa Anita Derby)

Final times are in bold. The day's hot pace to 3/4m is in red. Times and splits that are italicized and colored blue are not actual, but are projections from what they would be *IF* that race continued at the same speed as the final pace of that race. Use in your own way, at your own risk, and good luck.

I may edit this later to include the Arkansas Derby.

EDIT (4/8): Corrected omission of highlighting to indicate projected rather than actual times & splits in several races at FG, and notation that the 2nd race at Keeneland was moved "off turf."

Quote: DrawingDead

I have my own uses for these (which I won't go into) but for whatever those in this thread may find in them here are running times and fractional splits for the major final "preps" along with all other two-turn races that were run the same day at each of those tracks.

I would guess you are calculating "turn time". (maybe the 6f>8f splt for these 2 turn routes?)
Or maybe you are Andrew Beyer in real life:) (I am kidding).

It is a nice set of data that is interesting to go over and compare. Thanks for posting. It confirms my opinions about the individual races;

-The Blue Grass was ho-hum workmanlike.
-The Wood was slow early and fast late.
-The Louisiana Derby was slow early and very fast late.
-The Florida Derby is hard to figure, but it is sneaky good when compared to the earlier G3 Skip Away (run ~5 hours earlier on the card). The Florida Derby horses also carried 5 pounds more and dealt with the drying out track (that has been discussed earlier).
-The Santa Anita Derby was the best overall performance so far. Very fast early splits and solid times coming home.

Daredevil (w/ 20 Derby points) is being turned out until summer one-turn races (requires DRF+ subscription):
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/daredevil-gets-freshening-winstar
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Workouts @ Churchill Downs have begun for "contenders". I plan on watching the works more closely this year.

Conquest Typhoon - 4f 48.20B
War Story - 4f 49.20B - Worked without blinkers. I am not a fan of equipment changes made in the big race.
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With the last prep entries in, Cyrus Alexander will not be running for roses. I guess he is not ready. A few more Derby future tickets go up in smoke....

I think I have my derby strategy. I'm going to pick 3 horses (Pharoah, Dortmund, one longshot) and bet it this way. If two out of three finish 1, 2, or 3 I'll hit the trifecta. The $.50 trifecta will cost me $108 if my math is correct. Thoughts?

I think my math was wrong. It's $162 for that bet.

Quote: FinsRule

I think I have my derby strategy. I'm going to pick 3 horses (Pharoah, Dortmund, one longshot) and bet it this way. If two out of three finish 1, 2, or 3 I'll hit the trifecta. The $.50 trifecta will cost me $108 if my math is correct. Thoughts?

This is how I read your proposal: 3 tickets (.50 cent Trifecta): Total cost $162
3x2x18x.50= $54.00
3x18x2x.50= $54.00
18x3x2x.50= $54.00

-assumes a full field of 20.

*edited to correct misunderstanding.

Yes, but I think it should be 18, not 17, right?

Because I want to win if I happen to actually get all 3 right! And I'd be hitting it 3 times if I did.

Quote: FinsRule

Yes, but I think it should be 18, not 17, right?

Corrected. The total would be $162.

Quote: FinsRule

(Pharoah, Dortmund, one longshot)

Good plan; that way, at least one of us will have money on May 3rd. If the finish is like that, I'll probably be needing a loan.^*

*Short term, only until May 7, 2016.

I've corrected an oversight in the times that I posted on the previous page.

Prospect Park will miss the Derby. He may have been a little sick before the SA Derby:

http://www.drf.com/news/prospect-park-miss-derby-high-white-blood-cell-count

Quote: Keeneone

-snip-
Saturday April 11, 2015 - Keeneland - Lexington Stakes Grade 3 (1^1/16mile - 250k)
1 - Divining Rod
2 - Comfort
3 - Quimet
4 - Tiznow R J
5 - Henry Jones
6 - Fame and Power
7 - Donworth
-Divining Rod or Tiznow R J would have a chance to make the Derby if they win and earn the 10 Derby points for first place. They are long shots at this point, but they are still in the hunt.

The more I look into this race the more I like it. It may provide some small insights about the big race. A closer look at the field:

1 - Divining Rod -Tampa shipper, Stakes runner, could flatter CDiem. Recent Triple Crown nominee. Has 1 work @ Keeneland.
2 - Comfort - Fairgrounds shipper. DDead mentioned his recent sale/race history. Recent Triple Crown nominee. Layoff (2 months) is a question for me.
3 - Quimet - Gulfstream shipper. Stakes runner. Could flatter Materiality/Upstart. Returning quickly ~14 days.
4 - Tiznow R J - Stakes runner @ Sunland and Fairgrounds. Could flatter Firing Line.
5 - Henry Jones - Oaklawn shipper. Returning quickly ~10 days.
6 - Fame and Power - West coast shipper. B. Baffert trainee working bullets for this and his time for 7 furlongs @ SA is notable. Should be on the lead. Only knock would be distance?
7 - Donworth - Gulfstream shipper. Scratched @ Keeneland today* to run in this one (a positive sign IMO).

To me, this race is one (of many) reasons Keeneland is a great betting track and a difficult track to bet. Shippers come in from all over to run for big purses. And since I provided a closer look into the race I will also take a stand and select Divining Rod. Donworth is the second choice in case Divining Rod & Fame and Power hook up in a front-end speed duel.

*Keeneland race 8 today (Apr 9) was a 3yo ALW @ 1^1/16mile. Shaman Ghost won in a slowish time followed closely by Outlash, both where maiden breaking Gulfstream shippers.

A few horses have disappeared from the KD Leaderboard today:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/road

Ami's Flatter
Maftool
Tiz Shea D
Conquest Typhoon - will point towards the American Turf on Derby day.
Prospect Park - already mentioned illness.
Daredevil - already mentioned turning out.

Quote: Keeneone

Quote: Keeneone

-snip-
Saturday April 11, 2015 - Keeneland - Lexington Stakes Grade 3 (1^1/16mile - 250k)
1 - Divining Rod
2 - Comfort
3 - Quimet
4 - Tiznow R J
5 - Henry Jones
6 - Fame and Power
7 - Donworth
-Divining Rod or Tiznow R J would have a chance to make the Derby if they win and earn the 10 Derby points for first place. They are long shots at this point, but they are still in the hunt.

The more I look into this race the more I like it. It may provide some small insights about the big race. A closer look at the field:

1 - Divining Rod -Tampa shipper, Stakes runner, could flatter CDiem. Recent Triple Crown nominee. Has 1 work @ Keeneland.
2 - Comfort - Fairgrounds shipper. DDead mentioned his recent sale/race history. Recent Triple Crown nominee. Layoff (2 months) is a question for me.
3 - Quimet - Gulfstream shipper. Stakes runner. Could flatter Materiality/Upstart. Returning quickly ~14 days.
4 - Tiznow R J - Stakes runner @ Sunland and Fairgrounds. Could flatter Firing Line.
5 - Henry Jones - Oaklawn shipper. Returning quickly ~10 days.
6 - Fame and Power - West coast shipper. B. Baffert trainee working bullets for this and his time for 7 furlongs @ SA is notable. Should be on the lead. Only knock would be distance?
7 - Donworth - Gulfstream shipper. Scratched @ Keeneland today* to run in this one (a positive sign IMO).

To me, this race is one (of many) reasons Keeneland is a great betting track and a difficult track to bet. Shippers come in from all over to run for big purses. And since I provided a closer look into the race I will also take a stand and select Divining Rod. Donworth is the second choice in case Divining Rod & Fame and Power hook up in a front-end speed duel.

*Keeneland race 8 today (Apr 9) was a 3yo ALW @ 1^1/16mile. Shaman Ghost won in a slowish time followed closely by Outlash, both where maiden breaking Gulfstream shippers.

Take a look at the video of Donworth's 7f MSW race, not just the printed pp result. Asking a lot by jumping all the way from a 1st start win by a narrow margin at the wire to a significant Grade 3 Stakes while also stretching out to two turns, but IMO a more impressive maiden first race effort (GP-9th on 3/14) than his published running line might suggest. AWD 7.6f, not Derby nominated.

Quote: DrawingDead

Take a look at the video of Donworth's 7f MSW race, not just the printed pp result. Asking a lot by jumping all the way from a 1st start win by a narrow margin at the wire to a significant Grade 3 Stakes while also stretching out to two turns, but IMO a more impressive maiden first race effort (GP-9th on 3/14) than his published running line might suggest. AWD 7.6f, not Derby nominated.

I agree, his running line does little to tell exactly what he did in the race. As I posted, he is my second choice. The main concerns are exactly what you mention, the jump in class and 2 turns. I also think he may have more speed than he showed in his last start. With other (more experienced) speed signed up, I hope he will sit just off the pace in the Lexington. He does seem to have a little "buzz" coming into this race and may be bet accordingly. Thanks for his AWD.
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Slightly off topic and late....who do you like in the Maker's 46 Mile @ Kee. If the track comes up soft/good, I kinda like Legendary.

Quote: Keeneone

Slightly off topic and late....who do you like in the Maker's 46 Mile @ Kee. If the track comes up soft/good, I kinda like Legendary.

'Fraid I'm no help there. Ya gotta have an opinion... and I don't have an opinion. Not one that I'd see any value in betting on. I'll enjoy seeing Clement's class horse Summer Front suit up again for the 23rd time. I don't know what they're calling the course condition; I see the 4th is off turf but at least so far they're leaving the 7th on grass and nothing is falling out of the sky. I'm interested in a Chad Brown/Shadwell filly there.

Quote: Chad Brown (1/25)

'...expected good account of her, but we didn't crank down on her to win 1st time.'

Quote: The Racing Gods

6 Itsonlyactingdad 13.00 6.60 5.00
13 Ayaady 4.60 4.00
10 C'Est Moi 13.20

I'll take it. Good luck in the stakes.

Ocho Ocho Ocho will run in the Derby or the Pat Day mile. Depending on how he trains and if he gets in the Derby according to this article (DRF+ required):
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/kentucky-derby-day-options-ocho-ocho-ocho

Quote: DrawingDead

'Fraid I'm no help there. Ya gotta have an opinion... and I don't have an opinion. Not one that I'd see any value in betting on. I'll enjoy seeing Clement's class horse Summer Front suit up again for the 23rd time. I don't know what they're calling the course condition; I see the 4th is off turf but at least so far they're leaving the 7th on grass and nothing is falling out of the sky. I'm interested in a Chad Brown/Shadwell filly there.

No worries. I used Jack Milton as my second choice in the Maker's 46. It did not matter anyway because my pick 5 ticket was already dead. I did end up with 4 out of 5 for a huge payout of $5.80 (on a $16 dollar ticket). :)

do you guys realize that Dortmund, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Tencendur, Stanford, Firing Line, and El Kabeir all have storm cat in their bloodlines. No storm cat horse has ever won on the dirt over 1 1/8.

Quote: ontariodealer

do you guys realize that Dortmund, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Tencendur, Stanford, Firing Line, and El Kabeir all have storm cat in their bloodlines. No storm cat horse has ever won on the dirt over 1 1/8.

I find that hard to believe.

Quote: ontariodealer

do you guys realize that Dortmund, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Tencendur, Stanford, Firing Line, and El Kabeir all have storm cat in their bloodlines. No storm cat horse has ever won on the dirt over 1 1/8.

Here is one:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabasco_Cat

Perhaps you meant no Storm Cat bloodline horse has won the Derby?

He's, uhmmm, rather confused, in many dimensions at once (but that's okay).



"In their bloodlines" umhmmm. Here's a hot tip: Amazingly, all Derby winners have one of three sires named the Darley Arabian, the Byerly Turk, or the Godolphin Arabian "in their bloodlines" as do all Breeders' Cup Sprint winners, all 100% of them, in both! Wondrous, but true. What are the odds?!

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-

"In their bloodlines" umhmmm. Here's a hot tip: Amazingly, all Derby winners have one of three sires named the Darley Arabian, the Byerly Turk, or the Godolphin Arabian "in their bloodlines" and also all Breeders' Cup Sprint winners, all 100% of them! Wondrous, but true. What are the odds?!

So which one of the three has produced the most Derby winners? Maybe you have found the key to unlock Kentucky Derby 141.:)

Gulfstream Park sure was pretty back then.

Quote: Keeneone

Maybe you have found the key to unlock Kentucky Derby 141.:)

I'm 100% sure of it, a stone cold lock that can't lose.* I just have to figure out the best way to bet it.

I'm also about 53.41% sure I was guilty of getting a little too snarky in my reply.

*On second thought, I just figured out that it is sure to lose. But also to win. Now back to hatching that clever betting strategy.

Quote: Keeneone

Here is one:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabasco_Cat

Perhaps you meant no Storm Cat bloodline horse has won the Derby?

I re checked my stat....no horse out of a storm cat mare has ever won at over 1 1/8.

Quote: ontariodealer

I re checked my stat....no horse out of a storm cat mare has ever won at over 1 1/8.

Keep re-checking the stat. :) The best older horse in North America right now (*this is debatable) is one:
Shared Belief - (Candy Ride (ARG) - Common Hope, by Storm Cat)



I think I get the point you are trying to make. But ask yourself this question,
How many North American dirt races are run over 1^1/8mile every year?

yes shared belief just did it, he must be the first.....and I believe the best horse we've seen in years.

Quote: ontariodealer

yes shared belief just did it, he must be the first.....and I believe the best horse we've seen in years.

He also did it @ Del Mar in the Pacific Classic (admittedly on synthetic).

If anything (when talking about Storm Cat progeny) we should all be aware of how potent his descendants have become "recently". To name a few:

Close Hatches
Shackleford
Bodemeister
Shared Belief

I am no expert on horse pedigrees, but I would not rule out a Derby horse solely on the Storm Cat connection....

I've been saying Pharoah for a while now. I don't know... Why do I like Pharoah more? Have I just convinced myself to pick him and am too stubborn to switch to Dortmund?

I am scrapping the bet I was talking about. I have to start from the beginning.

Saturday April 11, 2015 - Oaklawn - Arkansas Derby Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 million)


American Pharoah - Absolutely crushed it. Race Day ran a faster time at the same distance (carrying 6 lbs less), but AP was geared down and could have easily ran a much faster time. His potential is quite exciting. I really enjoyed watching him run today.
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Saturday April 11, 2015 - Keeneland - Lexington Stakes Grade 3 (1^1/16mile - 250k)


Divining Rod - won.
Donworth - just held second.

-After the race, Divining Rod's ownership stated the Derby was unlikely for him (even if he drew in).

Quote: FinsRule

I've been saying Pharoah for a while now. I don't know... Why do I like Pharoah more? Have I just convinced myself to pick him and am too stubborn to switch to Dortmund?

I am scrapping the bet I was talking about. I have to start from the beginning.

AP vs Dortmund is quite the story. These 2 are so good right now that I would not be surprised if the Derby field does not fill up (20 entries plus 4 also-eligibles). There have been so many defections in the past few weeks (and many not due to injury). I just get the feeling many realize how tough it will be to beat both of these runners. Only 3 weeks until the race and I hope all arrive happy/healthy @ Churchill Downs.

I think it is very difficult to separate AP/Dortmund. It is almost a coin flip for me. If I could only choose one, I would take Dortmund. I like that he already won at Churchill Downs. Unfortunately, I have no tickets on either at the moment. I can always hedge with them on Derby day.

I really liked Dortmund until I saw that.....wow that AP looks nice.

I can only name 3 horses that I can even consider to have a shot to win outside Dortmund and Pharoah. International Star, Firing Line, Mubtaahij. Firing Line kept up with Dortmund, and the other two could possibly pick up pieces in a pace meltdown or in bad weather.

I throw out pletcher horses. If carpe diem beats me, then fine.

Anyone else have an argument for any other horse?

On a slightly different note, the only way to make money on the Derby is to beat the favorite, or play ONE favorite in exotics. So I think I'll use International Star and Mubtaahij in the Oaks/Derby double. I'll single AP on top of either the tri or super.

A 3 y/o running near the final time of a Grade 1 for older horses would be exceptional at level weights.

Quote: Keeneone

[...]

Divining Rod - won.
Donworth - just held second.

[...]

Good call on the Lexington. I was skeptical of Divining Rod, and played accordingly, so just slightly better than broke even on it and that by a flared nostril.

EDIT to add: Okay, the Oaklawn Handicap is only a Grade 2 now. It was a Grade 1 for about 15 years. The time of the Oaklawn Hcp has been given a 110 Beyer, and the Arkansas Derby got a 105.

American Pharoah - WOW.

Although, it appears he may have peaked too early.

Of course I could be wrong. I often am.

Love the thread. I've been reading since the beginning. Great analysis.

Quote: HowMany

American Pharoah - WOW.

Although, it appears he may have peaked too early.

Of course I could be wrong. I often am.

Love the thread. I've been reading since the beginning. Great analysis.

I know that Pharoah hasn't peaked. He's never had to run faster. He's going to have to catch a horse that's better than he's ever caught (I think he will rate). Will he be able to accelerate and maintain a prolonged stretch drive?

Quote: HowMany

American Pharoah - WOW.

Although, it appears he may have peaked too early.

Of course I could be wrong. I often am.

Love the thread. I've been reading since the beginning. Great analysis.

I don't think he has peaked either — but, I always wondered a trainer's logic in running the Arkansas Derby over other preps — 3 weeks before the KY Derby doesn't seem like enough rest

Quote: FinsRule

On a slightly different note, the only way to make money on the Derby is to beat the favorite, or play ONE favorite in exotics. So I think I'll use International Star and Mubtaahij in the Oaks/Derby double. I'll single AP on top of either the tri or super.

You don't make money on the Derby, you make money on Derby day. Nothing jacks up a tote board better than a bunch of rich ladies in big hats betting jockey colors. Opportunities abound. The Derby? Looking back, would you put the house on California Chrome at 5/2?

Quote: Sabretom2

You don't make money on the Derby, you make money on Derby day. Nothing jacks up a tote board better than a bunch of rich ladies in big hats betting jockey colors. Opportunities abound. The Derby? Looking back, would you put the house on California Chrome at 5/2?

Chrome at 5/2 is a better bet than Pharoah at 5/2. Dortmund didn't race last year.

Now that the 35 Derby points preps are complete the field is coming into shape. I decided to look over the preps.

18 of the 35 preps were won by the Favorite. (51%)

The lowest winning odds was on American Pharoah (.10/1).

The highest winning odds were on:
1 - Texas Red (13.90/1) - Breeders Cup Juvenile
2 - Lucky Player (11.50/1) - Iroquois
3 - International Star (9.20/1) - Lecomte

Of runners with multiple wins, International Star would have been one of the best to bet based on his odds. His stats: 9 starts - 5 wins and 2 seconds. He has only been favored in 2 starts (won one and lost one). His worst race came on the turf (9th place) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. It would have been nice if he had run in the Juvenile instead against Texas Red/Carpe Diem/Upstart.
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Upstart missed a scheduled workout with a temperature. Could be something, could be nothing. Missing works is never good.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91216/upstart-misses-scheduled-breeze-with-a-fever

Quote: DrawingDead

The card at Churchill today is a juvenile fest. They are raining two year olds all day. I would mot be surprised if some apparently obscure race on the undercard ended up being seen a few months from now as an early "key race" on the way to the Derby.

Lets take a look at who ran that day: November 29, 2014 - Churchill Downs

Kentucky Oaks contenders:
Race # 4
Birdatthewire - winner.
Include Betty - 5th.

Race #9
I'm A Chatterbox - 4th.


Kentucky Derby contenders:
Race #10
Dortmund - winner.

Race #11
El Kabeir - winner.
International Star - 4th.

Could the Oaks/Derby double be that simple to find???

After more digging and prodding and poking at it, I'm still not buying either of Dos Bafferts as mile and a quarter horses, so those holding tickets on either of them will please remember to thank me for providing the money to cash them. I'm not going to be hedging my positions in the remaining few weeks, or on race day. My only problem is that I have two and a half other colts that I like for this, and that's about one too many to be able to easily plan my wagering approach on the day.

I've added the Arkansas Derby card at Oaklawn to this time chart, along with the published Beyer figure for each of the major final Derby points qualifying 3 y/o stakes:

TrkR# 4 furlong 6 furlong 8 furlong 1-1/16m 9 furlong Dist 6f>8f splt Final 0.5f Final 1.0f Race conditions

Aqueduct 4/4
AQU04 00:49.06 01:13.40 01:37.98 01:44.43 01:50.87 9.0f 00:24.58 00:06.45 00:12.89 AlwN1X 3+
AQU07 00:47.52 01:12.48 01:37.86 01:44.21 01:50.55 8.0f 00:25.38 00:06.35 00:12.69 AOC40k/N2X 3+ (NY bred)
AQU08 00:48.06 01:13.56 01:38.95 01:45.56 01:52.17 9.0f 00:25.39 00:06.61 00:13.22 GR2 Stk300k F 3YO
AQU10 00:49.04 01:13.41 01:37.76 01:44.04 01:50.31 9.0f 00:24.35 00:06.28 00:12.55 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Wood Memorial - 103)

Fair Grounds 3/28
FG_04 00:48.13 01:12.96 01:39.61 01:46.27 01:52.94 _8.3f 00:26.65 00:06.66 00:13.33 Stk75k F 3YO (LA bred)
FG_05 00:47.83 01:12.83 01:39.33 01:46.28 01:53.23 8.5f 00:26.50 00:06.95 00:13.90 Stk75k 3YO (LA bred)
FG_07 00:47.32 01:11.86 01:38.19 01:45.11 01:52.03 8.5f 00:26.33 00:06.92 00:13.84 Stk60k 4+ (LA bred)
FG_09 00:47.03 01:11.19 01:37.40 01:44.40 01:51.40 8.5f 00:26.21 00:07.00 00:14.00 GR2 Stk400k F 3YO
FG_10 00:47.57 01:11.27 01:36.83 01:43.95 01:51.07 9.0f 00:25.56 00:07.12 00:14.24 GR2 Stk400k 4+
FG_11 00:48.59 01:13.27 01:37.94 01:44.31 01:50.67 9.0f 00:24.67 00:06.37 00:12.73 GR2 Stk750k 3YO (Louisiana Derby - 98)

Gulfstream Park 3/28
GP_05 00:48.97 01:13.81 01:38.72 01:45.35 01:51.97 _9.5f 00:24.91 00:06.63 00:13.25 GR3 Stk150k 4+
GP_12 00:48.25 01:13.57 01:40.53 01:47.40 01:54.27 8.5f 00:26.96 00:06.87 00:13.74 GR2 Stk250k F 3YO
GP_14 00:48.24 01:12.51 01:38.57 01:45.44 01:52.30 9.0f 00:26.06 00:06.87 00:13.73 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Florida Derby - 110)

Keeneland 4/4
KEE01 00:51.01 01:15.88 01:39.92 01:45.75 01:51.58 8.5f 00:24.04 00:05.83 00:11.66 AOC80k/N3X F&M 4+
KEE02 00:48.07 01:12.83 01:38.45 01:44.85 01:51.25 8.5f 00:25.62 00:06.40 00:12.80 AlwN2X 4+ (off turf)
KEE03 00:48.13 01:12.49 01:37.25 01:43.46 01:49.67 8.5f 00:24.76 00:06.21 00:12.42 MSW 3YO
KEE04 00:48.62 01:12.53 01:37.72 01:44.37 01:51.02 9.0f 00:25.19 00:06.65 00:13.30 AlwN3X 4+ (off turf)
KEE09 00:48.53 01:12.86 01:37.34 01:43.66 01:49.98 8.5f 00:24.48 00:06.32 00:12.64 GR1 Stk500k F 3YO
KEE10 00:48.05 01:12.18 01:36.94 01:43.36 01:49.77 9.0f 00:24.76 00:06.42 00:12.83 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Blue Grass - 95)

Oaklawn Park 4/11
OP_01 00:47.29 01:12.47 01:38.70 01:45.14 01:51.58 8.0f 00:26.23 00:06.44 00:12.88 CL10k N4L 4+
OP_03 00:46.91 01:12.25 01:38.36 01:44.86 01:51.35 8.0f 00:26.11 00:06.50 00:12.99 SA30k 3+
OP_04 00:48.03 01:12.40 01:37.39 01:43.69 01:49.99 8.0f 00:24.99 00:06.30 00:12.60 SA12.5k 4+
OP_06 00:47.17 01:12.13 01:37.71 01:44.01 01:50.31 8.5f 00:25.58 00:06.30 00:12.60 AOC20k/N1X 3+
OP_07 00:46.71 01:10.51 01:35.51 01:41.72 01:47.93 9.0f 00:25.00 00:06.21 00:12.42 GR2 Hcp600k 4+
OP_09 00:48.46 01:12.86 01:37.90 01:44.22 01:50.54 8.5f 00:25.04 00:06.32 00:12.64 MSW 3YO
OP_10 00:46.83 01:11.09 01:36.48 01:42.83 01:49.18 8.0f 00:25.39 00:06.35 00:12.70 Stk100k 3YO
OP_11 00:45.99 01:10.54 01:35.94 01:42.23 01:48.52 9.0f 00:25.40 00:06.29 00:12.58 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Arkansas Derby - 105)

Santa Anita 4/4
SA_05 00:45.94 01:09.97 01:36.34 01:43.11 01:49.88 8.0f 00:26.37 00:06.77 00:13.54 AOC40k/N1X 4+
SA_07 00:46.34 01:10.76 01:36.63 01:43.26 01:49.89 8.5f 00:25.87 00:06.63 00:13.26 GR1 Stk400k F 3YO
SA_08 00:46.36 01:10.57 01:35.68 01:42.21 01:48.73 9.0f 00:25.11 00:06.53 00:13.05 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Santa Anita Derby - 106)

Final times are in bold. The day's hot pace to 3/4m is in red. Times and splits that are italicized and colored blue are not actual, but are projections from what they would be *IF* that race continued at the same speed as the final pace of that race. Use in your own way, at your own risk, and good luck.