Beardgoat
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April 30th, 2015 at 10:46:42 AM permalink
Couple questions... Can off site betting places start accepting wagers? If so, is there a website that I can check to find current odds or how much money has been wagered?
speedycrap
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April 30th, 2015 at 1:19:06 PM permalink
Can someone kindly post the video of Dortmouth and Carpe Diem last 3 races. Thanks.
I like to bet the SHOW.
FinsRule
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April 30th, 2015 at 3:29:56 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

Couple questions... Can off site betting places start accepting wagers? If so, is there a website that I can check to find current odds or how much money has been wagered?



Friday 9:00 a.m. (Not sure if Central or Eastern)

kyderby.com
Keeneone
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April 30th, 2015 at 6:04:28 PM permalink
Stanford has been scratched. Not surprised, but his defection could change the pace a little. Why enter him only to scratch after drawing a good post? Weird. I lose one runner.

#21 - Frammento - N Zito - C Nakatani - draws into the race and will load into the outside gate.
Keeneone
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April 30th, 2015 at 7:21:07 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Can someone kindly post the video of Dortmouth and Carpe Diem last 3 races. Thanks.
I like to bet the SHOW.


Most Derby prep race replays can be viewed here:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/road/schedule
speedycrap
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April 30th, 2015 at 8:08:42 PM permalink
Thanks Keeneone
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 30th, 2015 at 8:28:37 PM permalink
I thought Jay Privman & Mike Welsch were a little amusing even if somewhat unenthused about the task of evaluating the entry of Dallas Stewart's latest mystery slug, er, horse "Tale of Verve" now sitting on the 'also eligible' list awaiting tomorrow's 9am (Eastern in Louisville) Derby scratch deadline:

http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-sponsored-fasig-tipton-churchill-downs
Quote: DRF

JP: The best thing that could happen to this hopeless, absurd longshot is if he does not scratch into this race.
MW: What was it about his recent maiden win over 5 opponents that lands him here? Absurd is too kind.

And what all of that amounts to is that this stiff is probably a lock to somehow miraculously clunk up for 2nd if he scratches in and I play any exotics in the race. My AWD figure on him is 7.1f. Plus 2.3 furlongs for Stewart's voodoo sauce.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
FinsRule
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April 30th, 2015 at 8:28:53 PM permalink
It's weird, Pletcher said they didn't like Stanford's post. I thought it was an odd comment too, and no one dared ask him a follow up of course.
DrawingDead
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April 30th, 2015 at 8:44:26 PM permalink
Google Trainerspeak >>> English translator:
Quote:

Didn't like his post draw.

>>>translation>>>

He wasn't that good and doesn't look like he's getting any better lately in the mornings, but I spent over half a million of their money on him at Barretts barely a year ago.


Quote: Equibase

BARMAR 48 Two year old N/A Todd A. Pletcher, agent Kings Equine $550,000 Sold
KEESEP 1082 Yearling N/A Dona Licha Stables Lane's End $120,000 Sold

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Keeneone
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April 30th, 2015 at 8:56:09 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

It's weird, Pletcher said they didn't like Stanford's post. I thought it was an odd comment too, and no one dared ask him a follow up of course.


Very strange. Were they hoping AP got the #1 or something?

Quote: DrawingDead

Google Trainerspeak >>> English translator:


The previously mentioned twitter account has a take:

T.A. Pletcher @NotTheToddster
Had an itch. Nick scratched it. #teamwork
speedycrap
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May 1st, 2015 at 7:08:20 AM permalink
I did some quick research about the Oaks today.
I plan to bet $200 show on Stellar Wind. $20 Ex Stellar Wind and Condo Commando. $5 Ex Stellar Wind and Lively Maria. $5 Ex Condo Commando and Stellar Wind. Any suggestions or opinions??
speedycrap
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May 1st, 2015 at 7:52:52 AM permalink
Any opinion??
Keeneone
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May 1st, 2015 at 8:20:26 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Any opinion??


I posted my selection earlier in the thread, and certainly would not talk you off of your selections. The Oaks is very competitive (similar to the Derby) with a Top heavy field of 5-7 fillies that have been very game.
----------

Something may be up with El Kabeir for the Derby. A foot issue maybe, but a decision apparently will be made Saturday morning.
ten2win
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May 1st, 2015 at 8:41:24 AM permalink
These are the rankings from Equibase, a statistical supplier to the DRF and others.

Mubtaahij
American Pharoah
Far Right
Carpe Diem
International Star
Frosted

By some guy, Ellis Starr, their National Racing Analyst.
I don't know everything but I know a lot.
Tomspur
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May 1st, 2015 at 9:09:26 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

I posted my selection earlier in the thread, and certainly would not talk you off of your selections. The Oaks is very competitive (similar to the Derby) with a Top heavy field of 5-7 fillies that have been very game.
----------

Something may be up with El Kabeir for the Derby. A foot issue maybe, but a decision apparently will be made Saturday morning.



A way to get AP off that 17 draw? I'm sure they wouldn't do that to the partners in the horse.

Well, we all know that these type of rumors almost always leads to a scratch so that is what we should assume is happening here.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Keeneone
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May 1st, 2015 at 6:33:00 PM permalink
El Kabeir is officially out, favoring his front left foot today. Gate #1 will now be left open (no Tale Of Verve to worry about), and 19 horses will run for the roses. His defection may help a number of the inside runners gain a little space away from the rail.

From Bloodhorse:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91722/el-kabeir-scratched-from-kentucky-derby
ontariodealer
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May 1st, 2015 at 6:43:11 PM permalink
we're here for the derby now and had a great day finding bombs for the supers and a horrible day cashing any supers...had one decent one at woodbine reversed. Probably will change my mine but my keys are

amer phar
Dortmund
international star
bolo
keen ice
carpe diem
tencendur
get second you pig
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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May 1st, 2015 at 7:23:05 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

(no Tale Of Verve to worry about)

I was probably the only guy on the planet worried about the possible porcine presence of Tale of Verve.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Keeneone
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May 1st, 2015 at 9:08:09 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I was probably the only guy on the planet worried about the possible porcine presence of Tale of Verve.


You can sleep soundly tonight.
----------

Here is a link to the live Derby Odds (already 186k in the pool this evening):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/kentucky-derby-live-odds
speedycrap
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May 2nd, 2015 at 7:11:51 AM permalink
Final analysis and betting idea?
Sabretom2
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May 2nd, 2015 at 7:18:15 AM permalink
On this first Saturday in May, let me give thanks to the duchess of Cambridge for giving birth to a princess and taking this Baltimore BS off the headlines, if only for a moment.
kenarman
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May 2nd, 2015 at 10:19:38 AM permalink
To continue my life long tradition of believing that if you are going to bother embarassing yourself you might as well make it a doozie.

My money will be on DANZIG MOON to win the Derby.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 12:09:02 PM permalink
International Star scratched this morning with left front foot heat (after a vet looked at him). 18 horses will now enter the gate.
----------

12.5 million currently in the Derby win pool. Florida Derby horses are being overlooked some. Ocho3 at 24/1 is somewhat surprising.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/kentucky-derby-live-odds
speedycrap
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May 2nd, 2015 at 12:15:49 PM permalink
I put $4 WP on 2 Carpe Diem.
Boz
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May 2nd, 2015 at 12:16:32 PM permalink
Call me Mr. Chalk.....Bet $150-$150-$100 on American Pharaoh along with $2 EB 18/All for $68 and $5 EB 2-8-18 for $30.

And if he doesn't money, I just added to the pool for all of you who knew what you were doing. Good Luck everyone!
DrawingDead
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May 2nd, 2015 at 12:26:29 PM permalink
From the low volume buzz I pick up in a large mid-Strip book, I'm ready to give Danzig Moon the trophy for being this year's 'wiseguy' horse. But shhh, don't tell anybody. In spite of that (definitely not because of it) I will bet him by using him underneath in some multi-horse exotics, but I won't have him in the win position.

If anyone with am interest in this topic has never done this event in one of the major Las Vegas racebooks, you really should do that one of these Mays. The crowd and their nervous excitement builds gradually hour by hour through the day until it becomes a communal thunderstorm.

Right now, about four hours before Derby post time, it is still not too hard for people to get in and find a piece of carpet to stand on. From which, if they are tall enough, they can point and glare at Drawing Dead in his seats, plural, in two of those suddenly precious things holding me and all my horse-y race-y bet-y stuff and gizmos, provoking annoyance from the crowded masses as they are squeezed tighter minute to minute, which I can assure you I enjoy ten times more than I ever did merely jumping occasional buffet lines with some fancy card.

And for a while longer it is still somewhat possible for the poor cocktail bimbo (sorry but she is - even Gloria Steinem would just bury her face in her hands and agree) to navigate the tide for now, but that won't last and she'll become a prisoner pushed this way and that in the surging waves of collective madness. At the moment they begin to lead them out to the track for The Race the scene will escalate to an eruption that washes out over the casino far beyond the book. And then, with that little precursor earthquake, the whole thing starts to get more intensely cooking and shaking, all well before even getting to the mass orgasm of the starting gate opening.

By now folks with enough interest to look at this thread probably know that International Star is a late scratch. Or you do now. I see Keeneone has it covered.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
speedycrap
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May 2nd, 2015 at 12:39:22 PM permalink
I would never bet a chalk at 17 hole. NEVER.
Long shot, maybe a few bucks.
DrawingDead
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May 2nd, 2015 at 12:44:23 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Call me Mr. Chalk.....Bet $150-$150-$100 on American Pharaoh along with $2 EB 18/All for $68 and $5 EB 2-8-18 for $30.

And if he doesn't money, I just added to the pool for all of you who knew what you were doing. Good Luck everyone!

Everybody knows what they are doing. Until the gate opens. Then nobody does.

If either of Dos Bafferts wins, I lose. At this point I estimate I have about a 43% chance of this coming out well for my wallet, one way or the other, or the other other. Meaning more likely that it doesn't, and that's with me doing the estimating of the value of my estimating. And that amounts to better than average prospects for me going into it for this insane event. And I'm fine with that.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 12:56:46 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Everybody knows what they are doing. Until the gate opens. Then nobody does.

If either of Dos Bafferts wins, I lose. At this point I estimate I have about a 43% chance of this coming out well for my wallet, one way or the other, or the other other. Meaning more likely that it doesn't, and that's with me doing the estimating of the value of my estimating. And that amounts to better than average prospects for me going into it for this insane event. And I'm fine with that.


If you do not mind telling, which runner represents you best ROI?
----------

The track seems plenty fast today. All dirt races have seen 461 or faster half-mile splits.
Tomspur
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May 2nd, 2015 at 1:09:34 PM permalink
Mike De Kock has a runner in the Woodford Reserve called Umgiyo. He doesn't have the worst turf form in Dubai and if the opposition isn't too strong, if he gets away from the gate OK and if there is enough pace in the race, then he could surprise them here!

Hope to see him run OK so that we can deduce that both horses took their traveling well?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 1:21:48 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Mike De Kock has a runner in the Woodford Reserve called Umgiyo. He doesn't have the worst turf form in Dubai and if the opposition isn't too strong, if he gets away from the gate OK and if there is enough pace in the race, then he could surprise them here!

Hope to see him run OK so that we can deduce that both horses took their traveling well?


The scratching of the 3 Ramsey owned horses (apparently about a dispute with the trainer C. Brown?) certainly improved his chances. Front end speed has done very well @ on Churchill's very(?) firm turf course the last two days. Of course others are aware of this and Chocolate ride is being bet down because of it. I like Slumber in this spot.
DrawingDead
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May 2nd, 2015 at 1:34:06 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Mike De Kock has a runner in the Woodford Reserve called Umgiyo. He doesn't have the worst turf form in Dubai and if the opposition isn't too strong, if he gets away from the gate OK and if there is enough pace in the race, then he could surprise them here!

Hope to see him run OK so that we can deduce that both horses took their traveling well?

The reports I've been following have not been encouraging for how Mubtaahij is looking & moving. Not terrible, just okay to moderately good in apparent fitness & energy level. Unfortunately merely good is often not good enough to get the money in this. But it depends on who and what one chooses to see and hear about that.

I am using his turf runner Umgiyo with one other in the Woodford Reserve, tied up with my preferred three in the Derby in some multi-race wagers. Umgiyo would definitely be the more rewarding outcome, sitting at 10:1 in the win pool. Good luck to us. And if he rings the cash register maybe you can tell me what under the southern cross a (an?) Umgiyo is or does. Other than screaming "long on grass - then longer & grassier please" as a grandson of Danehill and Sadler's Wells. The misgiving I have is that Churchill's turf isn't all that turf-y; Belmont's Widener course might be more congenial than the baseball infield state of the CD sod.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Tomspur
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May 2nd, 2015 at 1:56:30 PM permalink
I'm not sure why Umgiyo was sent to the front when he is a stone cold closer. Sorry fellas if I gave you any type of false hope. He comes from miles back and yet he was right up there. Perhaps he was more fresh than what they had expected?

Anyway on to the Derby.

I just want all horses to come back safely and may all your bets be live coming to the final turn!!!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 2:29:22 PM permalink
My four top named picks this weekend have all lost. It has not been a great showing on my part.
Callback - 2nd
Birdatthewire - 5th
Slumber - 5th
Carpe Diem - ?
----------

~$24 million in the win pool now. About ~1 hour to go.

Top 3:
~$4.6 million bet on AP
~$3.7 million bet on Dortmund
~$2.4 bet on Carpe Diem
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:13:59 PM permalink
Time to make the donuts. Any of three flavors would be very tasty to me: Carpe a la Diem, Matter of Ality, or a nice sweetly Frosted variety would hit the spot just fine, TYVM. At this point I'm not even imagining the small chance that Bolo showers me with absurdly large amounts of United States Federal Reserve Notes at triple digit odds in my futures and "ka-ching, tilt, tilt" in some future pool exacta combinations.. Net-net-net of everything over these five months, if Mubttaahij got there I would almost exactly break even on all this fun and games.

And I promise to smile politely when the many enthusiastic Amer. Ph. fans cramming in to hang from the rafters here cheer and begin to trickle out joyfully with the money I'm so generously providing to them in the parimutual pool.

Embrace the madness, and good luck to all. Well maybe not quite all, but much luck to many, depending on their pct. in the place and show pools and exacta arbitrage value.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:26:03 PM permalink
I bet the lines are long and the crowd is getting restless?
----------

I just saw a shot of AP and he looks a little sweaty already. The post parade is coming soon.
----------

Good Luck to all. Come home safe and sound.
DrawingDead
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:26:19 PM permalink
If you don't have one of these individual wagering gizmos in front of you, I'd estimate the lines to get a bet down are about: June. If you could get in the joint, which you can't. But you might be able to get close enough to hear the race call from somewhere on the other side of the pit.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
HowMany
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:35:07 PM permalink
My bet- $100 to win on #10 Firing Line.

Good luck and enjoy the race MOFO's.
DrawingDead
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:35:47 PM permalink
I wonder if we might shatter a record. Some of my live data feeds on wagering flow are popping their corks and spitting fizzy gibberish..
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:39:09 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone


I just saw a shot of AP and he looks a little sweaty already. The post parade is coming soon.
----------


I noticed this in the paddock, but he did look fine in the post parade. What a great looking field of runners. Gorgeous athletes.
DrawingDead
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:55:40 PM permalink
And the crowd is deliriously happy. All of y'all please enjoy every bit of my money. Now, what pastime can I find that I might be able to eventually learn how to do, at least well enough so I don't injure myself by creating flaming holes in the ground out of presidential portraits?
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Tomspur
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:59:11 PM permalink
I think the Baffert genius won the race. Everyone was expecting them to go a good gallop instead they slowed it right down. The first three round the first turn was the first three past the post. I was telling my wife how I wish they would send Mubtaahij to the front :(

We don't know if that would have made any difference though.

AP is a top horse!!

Enjoy the fight!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
DrawingDead
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May 2nd, 2015 at 4:14:45 PM permalink
Wiseguys finish 5th.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 4:28:25 PM permalink
Slowish(2:031), merry-go-round, and formful race. 4 of the top 5 completed the Superfecta. Congrats to AP.

On to the Preakness....

Net loser for me this year, but I have learned a lot. I want to thank all the members who have participated in this thread, especially Drawing Dead. It has been a very entertaining and exciting Derby trail/Derby.
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 4:49:57 PM permalink
Here is the video of the 2015 Kentucky Derby:

Materiality dwelt at the start, but still made up ton of ground into a slow pace. No excuses for Carpe Diem. Firing Line did not seem to change leads down the stretch. I see no reason the Top 3-5 do not return for the Preakness. Frosted looks the early danger for the Belmont way down the road, especially if he skips the Preakness. I guess we could start a new 2015 Triple Crown thread in the next few days, if there is interest?
kenarman
kenarman
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May 2nd, 2015 at 5:56:28 PM permalink
I got cleaned didn't have Firing Line in anything. Take him out of the mix and and I have both the Tri and STri.

Oh well on to the next one. Did manage a $256.00 jackpot on the slots while waiting for my wife to be ready to leave so not a complete loss.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
ontariodealer
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May 2nd, 2015 at 6:40:20 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

hpi.com Is the woodbine on line wagering acct and the only legal way to play in Canada.....the money is dumped into the u.s. pools.

I play the same strategy every year, exactors, 10 horses to the field and the field to ten horses.

this years ten horses are, american pharaoh, carpe diem, Dortmund, el kabier, far right, firing line, frostad, upstart, texas red and ocho ocho ocho.




I had this nailed back in feb, too bad I didn't have it today, no firing line.
get second you pig
beachbumbabs
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May 2nd, 2015 at 6:44:24 PM permalink
I missed Firing Line as well, had 2/3's of it. Ah, well.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Keeneone
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May 2nd, 2015 at 8:37:15 PM permalink
Quote: HowMany

My bet- $100 to win on #10 Firing Line.

Good luck and enjoy the race MOFO's.


Heartbreaker.
----------

Quote: Boz

Call me Mr. Chalk.....Bet $150-$150-$100 on American Pharaoh along with $2 EB 18/All for $68 and $5 EB 2-8-18 for $30.

And if he doesn't money, I just added to the pool for all of you who knew what you were doing. Good Luck everyone!


Well done Boz, aka Mr. Chalk!
----------

Closing Win wager today:
Total Wagered: $36,303,365.00
Last Update: May 2, 2015 7:24:13 PM
$7,639,300.00 - Bet on AP.
kenarman
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May 2nd, 2015 at 8:43:17 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

hpi.com Is the woodbine on line wagering acct and the only legal way to play in Canada.....the money is dumped into the u.s. pools.



Your quote should be in Ontario not in Canada. Pretty much every casino and a few bars in BC have offsite track betting. Online you can also bet other sports.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
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