WoV Picks Game/Bet

Having removed the thirteen wins that were the result of the SF/CHI O/U from Week 11, the group (including my picks) is 584-495 for .541. Those thirteen wins really didn't make all that big of a difference in the winning percentage.

We also still would have went 48-31 for .608 if not for that O/U that week.

I don't have the inclination to go back, but there was a line on a game that was in error, and there was LOTS of discussion about it, and you even took a vote as to what to do about it! I do not believe that any gamblers got REAL money down on the over in that SF game, by the way. By saying--- "I'm simply presenting what happened in relation to the lines that were posted" you would actually be misleading someone who just joined, as all they would be seeing is a group at 55% success. Even without those games, we ARE still ahead of the vig, which is impressive. But I'm guessing your original 'stat' is something akin to what EvenBob used to predict his easy Romney victory....

SOOPOO, I saw several on-line sports books. Quoting the O/U of 27 or 28 in the SF/CHI game you are talking about. Keep in mind that both starting QB's were out for the game and both teams have very good defenses. So while the line is unusually low, I don't think it's fair to call it an error. It's easy to say it was a "ridiculous" number after the fact. But Kapernick (the SF QB) had never started before in the NFL. He had a very good game, but he could have easily stunk up the joint and the game might have stayed under the number(witness the CHI offensive performance, with an inept Jason Campbell at QB)

Plus...confidence picks count as 2 wins or losses. That keeps the statistics from being "true" too. No?

Quote: SOOPOO

I don't have the inclination to go back, but there was a line on a game that was in error, and there was LOTS of discussion about it, and you even took a vote as to what to do about it! I do not believe that any gamblers got REAL money down on the over in that SF game, by the way. By saying--- "I'm simply presenting what happened in relation to the lines that were posted" you would actually be misleading someone who just joined, as all they would be seeing is a group at 55% success. Even without those games, we ARE still ahead of the vig, which is impressive. But I'm guessing your original 'stat' is something akin to what EvenBob used to predict his easy Romney victory....

In week 4, the SF/NYJ game was supposed to be SF -4.5 not +4.5. Before the players picks were posted, the error was reported to Mission and the two players who had selected SF at +4.5 changed their picks to a valid line (Vendman1 changed to SF -4.5, and I changed picks altogether). So this foul line did not affect the overall win percentage ATS.

Regarding the SF/CHI O/U 27 line, all the books I saw had this at 37 (which is still a low line for the modern NFL). I have to think 27 was erroneous. So, if we are reporting percentages for the group ATS, I think we have to exclude this game.

If anyone would of got down on a line of 27, that wager would of been cancelled. The lowest line I could find was 34.

Here's Justbet's Total lines for that SF/Chi game:

TOTALS
TIME OVER UNDER
11/19 06:07 PM 34 -110 34 -110
11/19 05:57 PM 34½ -110 34½ -110
11/19 04:13 PM 35 -110 35 -110
11/19 01:15 PM 34½ -110 34½ -110
11/19 11:00 AM 34 -110 34 -110
11/19 09:40 AM 34½ -110 34½ -110
11/19 08:35 AM 35 -110 35 -110
11/19 08:20 AM 34½ -110 34½ -110
11/19 07:35 AM 35 -110 35 -110
11/19 03:49 AM 36 -110 36 -110
11/18 02:40 PM 36½ -110 36½ -110
11/18 09:02 AM 37 -110 37 -110

Quote: SOOPOO

I don't have the inclination to go back, but there was a line on a game that was in error, and there was LOTS of discussion about it, and you even took a vote as to what to do about it! I do not believe that any gamblers got REAL money down on the over in that SF game, by the way. By saying--- "I'm simply presenting what happened in relation to the lines that were posted" you would actually be misleading someone who just joined, as all they would be seeing is a group at 55% success. Even without those games, we ARE still ahead of the vig, which is impressive. But I'm guessing your original 'stat' is something akin to what EvenBob used to predict his easy Romney victory....

EDIT: Sorry, MidWestAP, hit, "Reply," before reading all the posts.

I remember that now, and it was actually also on a SF game. That was actually a screw-up on my part for putting SF +x when it should have been SF -x and the decision was made to change the line, but if the player got it in (but wanted to change out of good faith) he could. In fact, only two players actually even attempted to take the erroneous line, and the seond of the two only did so after it had been corrected with the first of the two changing his Pick. Thus, the first line had absolutely no effect on the overall results (as it didn't get played as such) and the true winning percentage is the .541 without the SF/CHI O/U.

Quote: mwalz9

Plus...confidence picks count as 2 wins or losses. That keeps the statistics from being "true" too. No?

I suppose I would have to go back and look at how many win v. how many lose discluding that SF O/U, and I may do that later on tonight just out of curiosity. Shooting from the hip, though, I want to say that Confidence Picks are right around the actual winning percentage, though, it seems like many of them lose.

In effect, a CP is no different from betting double a fixed standard amount, which someone can obviously do with RL sports betting or on on-line books, so I don't know that it falsely inflates anything.

Quote: Mission146

I suppose I would have to go back and look at how many win v. how many lose discluding that SF O/U, and I may do that later on tonight just out of curiosity. Shooting from the hip, though, I want to say that Confidence Picks are right around the actual winning percentage, though, it seems like many of them lose.

In effect, a CP is no different from betting double a fixed standard amount, which someone can obviously do with RL sports betting or on on-line books, so I don't know that it falsely inflates anything.

As always, it depends upon what you are saying you can do. If you are saying you can pick 4 of 6 NFL games consistently each week, to me that means you are selecting 6 games, not 5, with one of them counting double. I am a stickler for these details, having done medical research. Have you noticed that NONE of the dice influencers or craps system winners or money management winners will EVER define what they can actually do?

' Have you noticed that NONE of the dice influencers or craps system winners or money management winners will EVER define what they can actually do? "

Actually I have. LOL I also noticed none offer a money back guarantee or will hold your check for 30 days like the horse system
sellers back in the day !

Quote: Mission146

Having removed the thirteen wins that were the result of the SF/CHI O/U from Week 11, the group (including my picks) is 584-495 for .541. Those thirteen wins really didn't make all that big of a difference in the winning percentage.

We also still would have went 48-31 for .608 if not for that O/U that week.

I have our answer on Confidence Picks.

Discluding the Confidence Picks for SF/CHI as all wins from that game have been eliminated we are 65-58 (Credited 130-116) for .528 on Confidence Picks, which is actually slightly below the league overall record.

If we eliminate 65-58 from the record, then we are 519-437 for .543, so as you can see, CP's make us worse as opposed to better.

Confidence Picks will still play, of course, but the Official Record is hereby reset to 519-437 for .543. This includes (and will continue to include) my Picks.

I have not used a the Confidence Pick designation because I'm confident my picks suck.

Quote: MakingBook

I have not used a the Confidence Pick designation because I'm confident my picks suck.

You'll notice that I have not done so either, for basically the same reason.

Greetings!

The Week 13 Lines Have Been Posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post199454

All abbrieviations, sorry, probably the busiest day I've had at work in three months!

Hey Mission are you Missing the Pit vs. Bal game or is there no line (possible due to Big Bens injury I guess)..I've seen lines for it other places usually Bal -6.5 or -7

Quote: vendman1

Hey Mission are you Missing the Pit vs. Bal game or is there no line (possible due to Big Bens injury I guess)..I've seen lines for it other places usually Bal -6.5 or -7

There was no line at the time of posting, but 5Dimes.eu has got it now, so I Edited the Official Thread.

Greetings!

The Week 13 Results have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post200579

Quote: Mission146

Confidence Picks will still play, of course, but the Official Record is hereby reset to 519-437 for .543. This includes (and will continue to include) my Picks.

Confidence Picks having been discluded from the record, we went 43-37 for .538 this week, which could be worse. That puts us to 562-474 on the season for .542, so we dropped by one base point.

If my presence in the game were official, then I would be in sixth place.

NOTES

1.) Discluding the possibility of Confidence Picks, RStrata is, unfortunately, the first to be mathematically eliminated from having any chance to win. If RStrata were to go 20-0 with The Wiz going 0-20, The Wiz would still have the better winning percentage.

2.) The Wiz has now broken the .700 mark.

3.) I'm interested to see what will happen if #1 and #2 are still The Wiz and Vendman1. The Wiz must pick, but Vendman1 could sit out the final week (or any week prior) and just see if The Wiz can beat him. For example, if The Wiz were to go 2-3 this week with Vendman1 going 0-0, then Vendman 1 rounds down to .681 and wins as The Wiz rounds up to .681.

However, even if Vendman1 went 3-2 against a 2-3 Wiz, then Vendman1 would lose by a few base points.

4.) .550 is still within reach for the group, for instance, if we were to bat .600 for a 48-32 week, then we'd be above .550.

As we enter the home stretch, I want to make sure I understand how big a check I'm going to have to write to the Wizard. How many places are the target percentages carried out?


If the contest ended today:

Winner: Wizard: 47-20---.701

Quote: Pays .601+

2.) If you finish with a record of .601 or better and are not the winner, you will pay the lesser of $5.00 OR $1.00 for every pick you were away from having the winner(s) winning percentage.

Vendman1: 47-22---.681 would owe: $1
MidwestAP: 40-24---.625 would owe: $5
MWalz9: 40-26---.606 would owe: $5

Quote: Pays .600 or less

1.) If you finish with a record of .600 or lower AND are not the winner, you will pay the winner(s) $1.00 for every game you fell below .600, or $5.00, whichever is greater.

AyeCarumba: 46-31---.597 would owe: $5
Miplet: 37-28---.569 would owe: $5
BigPete88: 42-35---.545 would owe: $5
Ten2Win: 36-35---.507 would owe: $7
SOOPOO: 39-38---.506 would owe: $7
MakingBook: 29-31---.483 would owe: $7
StrictlyAP: 33-36---.478 would owe: $8
Steeldco: 34-38---.472 would owe: $9
ChickenMan: 36-41---.468 would owe: $10
JohnZimbo: 33-40---.452 would owe: $13
RStrata: 30-45---.400 would owe: $15

EdgeLooker: 22-31---.415 would owe: $10
BuzzPaff: 20-5---.800 would owe: $5
BeardGoat 4-5---.444 would owe: $5

Are all partial pays rounded up to the nearest dollar?

If I go 24-0 in the last four weeks, I think I still have a chance.... Hey, it could happen...

What is the deadline for payment ? And must it be paid all at once. Or can I wait till my brother straightens up. He is a hunchback.

RStrata's is wrong, somehow you had him based on a record of .500. In fact, the majority of the ones that are not $5 are wrong.

I'll post a, "If the season ended today," list after next week's results.

BuzzPaff would also owe nothing, he is not any games away from having The Wiz's winning percentage, his is better.

I am paying $5 anyway. I hates a quitter, personal reasons or not.

Greetings!

The Week 14 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post200764

Quote: Mission146

RStrata's is wrong, somehow you had him based on a record of .500. In fact, the majority of the ones that are not $5 are wrong.

I'll post a, "If the season ended today," list after next week's results.

BuzzPaff would also owe nothing, he is not any games away from having The Wiz's winning percentage, his is better.

Would $23 be correct to bring RStrata's 35-45 to 68-45? So, it's not the total games selected when the contest ends, but the incorrect picks that determine the amount owed?

Quote: Ayecarumba

Would $23 be correct to bring RStrata's 35-45 to 68-45? So, it's not the total games selected when the contest ends, but the incorrect picks that determine the amount owed?

This is what you want:

X/(X + 45) = .600

X = (X + 45) * .600

X = .600X + 27

.400X = 27

X = 67.5

VERIFICATION

68 + 45 = 113---68/113 = .601

68 -35 = $33

***33 Wins from .600 based on his record.

Quote: Mission146

This is what you want:

X/(X + 45) = .600

X = (X + 45) * .600

X = .600X + 27

.400X = 27

X = 67.5

VERIFICATION

68 + 45 = 113---68/113 = .601

68 -35 = $33

***33 Wins from .600 based on his record.

Oops, maybe there is a bigger problem. We have played 13 weeks with a max of 6 picks each week, so the most picks possible is 78. How does RStrata have 35+45=80 picks?

Edit: My bad, he's actually 30-45

Quote: Mission146

This is what you want:

X/(X + 45) = .600

X = (X + 45) * .600

X = .600X + 27

.400X = 27

X = 67.5

VERIFICATION

68 + 45 = 113---68/113 = .601

68 -35 = $33

***33 Wins from .600 based on his record.

Based on the payout rules, I thought it would be calculated as:

X/(W+L) = .600

And the amount owed would be X-W.

Rstrata's 30-45 would then be: X/(30+45) = .600

X-W = 45 - 30 = 15

In other words, he was 15 wins away from a .600 record with the 75 games selected when the contest ended. Each missing win lowers the total in the loss column, since what we are counting is losses that should have been wins.

Quote: Ayecarumba

In other words, he was 15 wins away from a .600 record with the 75 games selected when the contest ended. Each missing win lowers the total in the loss column, since what we are counting is losses that should have been wins.

We could do it that way, I suppose. It could have been more clear, but my intent was always to add to the win column whatever it would take to make the percentage .600 with the loss column remaining constant.

Here is a quote from page 9 which makes it clear that someone who is 30-45 would owe $15 if the contest we over right now. (30 +15)/75 = .600

Quote: Mission146

It's perfectly understandable.

I would say that if you are going to give up, early would be the way to do it. The reason is that if the winner finishes above .601, and you are running below .601, there would be less games that you are below .601, thus less money you would owe the winner.

For example, if you were 1-4 and gave it up, then you would only be three games away from .601 and would therefore owe $5.00. If you finished 17-68, however, you would owe $34 if the winner finished better than .601.

We do have a very strong group, I'll admit, but I hate to lose anyone, especially someone such as yourself who I greatly enjoy reading. At the same time, however, I would thank you for bowing out gracefully and let you know that your decision does nothing to change my high opinion of you as a Member of WoV.

If you wish, I will post the results of your Week 1 picks as you have already sent them to me. However, if you change your mind you must post that you will play, in-thread, prior to 13:00 EST tomorrow.

Quote: miplet

Here is a quote from page 9 which makes it clear that someone who is 30-45 would owe $15 if the contest we over right now. (30 +15)/75 = .600

Cool, that's what we will use, then. Thank you for finding that.

Next year it's just going to go by percentages!!! Winner's - Loser's $0.10 for every thousandth off.

Greetings!

The Week 14 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post201152

Wizard went 5-0 today!

PHI +7.5 (Won outright 23-21)
DAL +3 ( (Won outright 20-19)
STL +3 (Won outright 15-12)
CAR +3.5 (Won outright 30-20)
MIN +3 (Won outright 21-14)

Bust out the brooms!

Wizard needs to go tout!

Wizard,

I was expecting you to eliminate the Confidence bet weeks ago as you did not need the risk of variance. I see that you employed that strategy this week.

Not trying to give away tournament strategy but this is just a little friendly tournament.

BOL with winning.....not really :-)

And I thought the man was nuts because of CAR +3.5... I wish I knew things... That line cost me $300

Greetings!

The Week 14 Results have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post202125

We had a positively putrid week as a group (at 2-3, I didn't help matters any) going 37-43 for .463. Prior to this week we were 562-474 for .542 and we are now 599-517 for .537, so this week dropped us by five base points.

If my presence in the game were official, I would be in 7th/16.

NOTES

1.) The point of automatic elimination is now any record below .597701149 (discluding the possibility of Confidence Picks) because that would be The Wizard's record if he were to go 0-15 the rest of the way.

If you wish to check the Standings, if you are SOOPOO or your name is below SOOPOO's, discluding the possibility of Confidence Picks, you are, unfortunately, mathematically eliminated from contention.

There are now Seven Players who can mathematically compete and eight players (still in) who are Eliminated, there are Eleven total Eliminated players.

2.) If this Week were the final week, Vendman1 could not sit out and hope for The Wiz to post up lousy Picks. If Vendman1 sat this week and The Wiz went 0-5, The Wiz would still be 35 base points better at .675.

3.) Nothing short of a miracle will get us to .550 after this week.

Boy, the Ravens' meltdown really tore alot of folks up.

Quote: Mission146

We had a positively putrid week as a group (at 2-3, I didn't help matters any) going 37-43 for .463. Prior to this week we were 562-474 for .542 and we are now 599-517 for .537, so this week dropped us by five base points.

Correction:

I gave SteeldCo a loss for Dal where it should have been a win, so we went 38-42 for .475 and are 600-516 for .538.

Greetings!

The Week 15 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post202361

Kirk Cousins is a better QB than RG3. Go ahead and discuss it.........

Based on a VERY limited sample size for Cousins, his completion percentage is 2.4% better and his yards/attempt is 1.4 yards better.

Alternatively, Griffin III"s TD/INT ratio is 4.5:1 compared to Cousins' 4:3, which makes Griffin's QB Rating 2.6 points better.

Griffin III is also more mobile, or has simply used his mobility more compared to the Cousin's sample, as he averages 50.2 more rushing yards per game.

It's too small of a sample size to come to much of a conclusion, but based on the small sample, slight edge for RG3. If Cousins had thrown one more TD or one fewer INT, then there would be a slight edge for Cousins...based on an equally small sample size.

Actually, that'd probably just come down to value of more rushing yards/game v. value of slightly better QBR.

Mission146, I was expressing an opinion. Yes. On a very small sample.......BUT, I do believe he will end up being a better QB. Time will tell.

Quote: steeldco

Mission146, I was expressing an opinion. Yes. On a very small sample.......BUT, I do believe he will end up being a better QB. Time will tell.

steeldco - Want to put any money on that? Obviously the risk with RG3 is that his style of play opens himself up for more frequent and serious injury, but I firmly think that RG3 will be better. We could measure that based on wins, win percentage (with a minimum number of games played), qb rating (with minimum number of games played), superbowl wins, or another agreed upon metric.

MidwestAP, I would have considered it if they were both starting on different teams. They obviously both can't play and the Redskins aren't going to bench the 2nd. choice in the draft even if they believe the Cousins is better......at least not in the near future.

Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

The Week 15 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post202361

Turnovers by the Steelers and Jets killed me this week. I'm getting sized for a fork from the Wizard, because I think I'm done...

Greetings!

The Week 15 Results have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post203616

We managed to pull together an even worse week than last week, (at 2-3, I was again worse than the group as a whole) going 35-45 for .438. Prior to this week we were 599-517 for .537 and now we are 634-562 for .530...and after the last two weeks I'm hoping we manage to hold on to a winning percentage that good!

We had a bad week for a few of the top half players, so despite my being 2-3 for the week, I actually improve from 7th/16 to 6th/16 if my presence in the game were official. I'm going to see how this week goes, and then I may use Week 17 as my Skip Week for record preservation.

NOTES

1.) The point of automatic elimination, barring Confidence Picks, is now .632 as that would be The Wiz's record if he were to lose the next ten games.

Again, barring Confidence Picks, the only individuals who can still win this competition are: The Wiz, Vendman1 and MidWestAP; an unbeaten MWalz9 v. a winless Wizard would result in the exact same record and a draw.

There are now four players who can mathematically compete and Eleven players (still in) who are mathematically eliminated. There is a total of fourteen Eliminated players.

2.) If The Wizard were to go winless this week, then he would still be sitting at .671, so if this week were the final week, Vendman1 could still not simply sit and hope for The Wizard to go winless.

3.) Vendman1's best possible record is .681 (barring Confidence Picks) and Wizard's worst possible record is, again, .632. MidWestAP's best record is .640 and MWalz9, at best, can tie the Wiz at .632. Wizard's best possible record is .747.

Elimination Points-Barring Confidence Picks

If the Wizard wins one more game, both MWalz9 and MidWestAP would be eliminated. The Wizard would be at .644 if he went 1-9 the rest of the way.

The Wizard controls his own destiny to the extent that if he goes 5-5 (or better) over the last two weeks, mathematically, it makes no difference what Vendman1 does.

Greetings!

The Week 16 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/8/#post203853

Greetings!

The Week 16 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/9/#post204303

Blah!

2-2 with a No Decision puts me at 43-35 for .551.

That's the season for me, folks, I'm skipping next week. I'd need to go 5-0 to break .575 (and I don't recall having a 5-0 week this year) and even another 2-2-0 week, or worse, would drop me below .550, so I really have no reason to risk my pretty good record for the year.

Quote: Mission146

NOTES

2.) If The Wizard were to go winless this week, then he would still be sitting at .671.

Has the Wiz ever entered the Hilton Contest? It would be great if he did for next year. The Hilton contest's top ranked guy was 49-23 .681, going into WK17.

Greetings!

The Week 16 Results Have Been Posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/9/#post204828

The first thing that I would like to do is congratulate The Wizard who is the Official Champion of the 1st Annual WoV Picks Game/Bet, all other contestants having been mathematically eliminated from contention!***

***It is theoretically still possible for The Wiz to lose, however, it would require that Vendman1 pick perfectly next week (whether or not he makes a Confidence Pick is irrelevant) AND The Wizard would have to miss every single game as well as inexplicably make a Confidence Pick. I don't feel that I am unfairly prejudicing any potential decision by stating this, though, because The Wiz is the World's Foremost Authority on Gaming Math, so he really doesn't need me to tell him this!

This Week

This is the third week in a row that we have performed worse than the week previous. We ended up going 31-41 (3 No Decisions) for .431 which takes us from 634-562 for .530 to 665-603 for .524. I don't know how we will perform next week, but I do know that I will have nothing to do with it as I am Skipping to preserve my .551 record for the season.

There wasn't much movement in the Standings this week, so if my presence in the game were official, I'd still be in 6th/16.

Advice

I suppose I might go ahead and give some advice to the remaining contestants in this game since they cannot possibly win, at least, the contestants to whom any advice is actually relevant. (Basically, pertaining to .600, and The Wiz and Vendman1 are the only two players above .600)

VendMan1-There is no way for you to beat The Wiz unless he makes a Confidence Pick and misses every game with you successfully picking every game. In this scenario, it doesn't matter whether or not you make a Confidence Pick because even 0-6 v. 5-0 would have you beating The Wiz by a very small fraction. However, if you were to make a Confidence Pick and go winless, you would drop below .600, otherwise, you will remain above .600 regardless of what you do.

MidWestAP-The following records would bring you above .600: 6-0, 5-0, 5-1, 4-1, 4-2, (discluding no decisions) so do with that information as you will with respect to making a Confidence Pick. I personally advise it because it is the only way you could get above .600 while only getting three actual games right. Technically, though, a Confidence Pick could hurt you if you go 3-1-ND and the Confidence Pick is the one you lose. I suggest that going 3-2 (discluding the Confidence Pick) is more likely, though. You could even deliberately pick in such a way (.5's) that eliminates the aforementioned possibility.

MWalz9-The following records would bring you above .600: 6-0, 5-0, 5-1, 4-1. I would suggest that you do NOT make a Confidence Pick because you are going to need to actually pick at least Four games right regardless of what you decide to do, but a 4-2 Week (4-1, missed Confidence Pick) would still have you below .600.

Miplet, et al-Make picks as you deem appropriate if you believe that you can better your record. If you skipped a week already, being eliminated is irrelevant at this point. Unfortunately, if you are Miplet or your name is below Miplet's, it is mathematically impossible to finish at .600+.

The matters to be voted upon to improve our game have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/12399-wov-picks-game-bet-official-vote/#post204844