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unJon
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October 6th, 2019 at 5:53:41 AM permalink
The 2+2 thread is now making my eyes bleed. Pages and pages of inanity or repetitive posts. Shame as it was focused and awesome the first couple of days. I suppose that it was inevitable.

Also there are some reaches in declaring God Mode on some hands. My favorite is when Mike calls and doesnít raise with the nut flush on a paired board (opponent had straight flush). Would be a great example of God Mode if the board didnít pair, but it did.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
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October 6th, 2019 at 7:32:47 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

OUTRAGEOUS!!!

You mind if I share this and quote you?



Of course you may. Although I think this news is leaking out.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
unJon
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October 6th, 2019 at 8:02:33 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Of course you may. Although I think this news is leaking out.

Itís public. The lawyer is on the Stonesí parent companyís pleadings with CA gaming when Stones got its license suspended. Itís actually not uncommon for a corporate to hire its own counsel to run an independent investigation of what happened. In theory the corporation is best served by offering up any employees that were in on it to preserve the reputation of the corporation.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AxelWolf
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October 6th, 2019 at 9:18:29 AM permalink
When Mike Postle First Cheated.

https://www.reddit.com/r/poker/comments/ddzqgp/when_mike_postle_first_cheated/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf


Not sure if this is related or not.


♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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October 6th, 2019 at 9:45:19 AM permalink
Mike P jumps in the commentator booth for an interview because the stream is down. Skip to 1:06:15.
then take note at about 1:12:00, as they are talking to Mike P. and how he plays lower limits nowadays compared to his past. The commentator says, it almost feels like a free roll now. LOL.... If he only knew.
https://youtu.be/09jdsX8vkMI
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Oct 6, 2019
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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October 6th, 2019 at 10:03:15 AM permalink
Someone earlier said there wasn't enough evidence to convict? Really? That is only because it is possible you have jurors who would ignore as much expert testimony as the prosecution would want to show. Greed. Pure greed. If he just used his 'magic' one out of ten hands, and played the other 9 fair and square, he would make money at a fairly high rate, just it wouldn't look ridiculous like it does. He could have played forever.
AxelWolf
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October 6th, 2019 at 10:14:45 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Someone earlier said there wasn't enough evidence to convict? Really? That is only because it is possible you have jurors who would ignore as much expert testimony as the prosecution would want to show. Greed. Pure greed. If he just used his 'magic' one out of ten hands, and played the other 9 fair and square, he would make money at a fairly high rate, just it wouldn't look ridiculous like it does. He could have played forever.

I'm not sure how often these live-streams were available for him to play or if he needed a partner. He may have felt a sense of urgency to get as much money as he could while the getting was good. Who knows if he was donking the money off on other things or if he owed someone money. I don't think he ever thought somebody would compile all the videos or if he even knew he was suspected as cheating.

ONM made a good point that when somebody gets used to a certain amount of income and they feel compelled to keep generating similar amounts even if it means risking getting caught. I guess maybe that's the definition of greed.

Assuming there's no hard evidence I highly doubt he'll ever admit to this unless he's facing criminal charges with some kind of plea bargain.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Rigondeaux
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October 6th, 2019 at 10:48:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Someone earlier said there wasn't enough evidence to convict? Really? That is only because it is possible you have jurors who would ignore as much expert testimony as the prosecution would want to show. Greed. Pure greed. If he just used his 'magic' one out of ten hands, and played the other 9 fair and square, he would make money at a fairly high rate, just it wouldn't look ridiculous like it does. He could have played forever.



Postle made some legit points. People were calculating his bb/hr at 1/3. But those games were often straddled to $20, playing $4,000 deep. So all the experts accounts of his win rates were off a bunch.

Still obviously guilty but a conviction will be tricky. Most people know nothing about poker. It's very easy to confuse them.

Plus... Victims aren't sympathetic... Except the dude dying of cancer
mcallister3200
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October 6th, 2019 at 12:44:11 PM permalink
While he was almost certainly cheating, when youíre specifically hunting for something out of the ordinary the odds of finding something out of the ordinary are greater than normal (happens all the time when people looking for sports betting systems and find utterly meaningless ATS trends.) In court Iím sure heíd be able to have a statistician testify about the way Ingram/Polk analyzing it being not the way a statistician would, casting some doubt.
MaxPen
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October 6th, 2019 at 1:09:59 PM permalink
In the old days he would just be shot and taken out back. Today a bunch of people will just talk about it. Hopefully noone is dumb enough to keep sitting in a game with him.
beachbumbabs
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October 6th, 2019 at 1:11:36 PM permalink
I'm not following this closely enough to make an informed comment on Postle, but someone mentioned WSOP.

Unless something has changed very recently, the broadcasts are delayed 20 minutes - not just to the public, but to the commentators. The graphics are translated from the raw feed at the time of broadcast, and the commentators are commenting live while watching a delayed feed. The feed itself is not reviewed until the 7 seconds before broadcast, where they're listening for bleep-worthy comments, but otherwise not editing.

Even though their booth is usually on the poker floor, just off from the feature table, they're not watching the live game. It gets a little weird sometimes, when something huge happens in real time, and you hear the roar of the rail birds over the mikes of the commentators. Sometimes they acknowledge that, and usually explain the delay they're using if so, but usually they maintain the fiction that they're working in real time (which they sort of are).

Anyway, this mode of operation is supposed to protect against stuff like this Postel situation. There's nobody who can see or interpret the card data in real time if none of it gets played back before the graphics and commentary are layered on top. So I don't see why this Stones situation would be an indictment of all streamed or broadcast poker.

The only exception would be, I guess, if somehow Postelis intercepting a live wifi broadcast from the table, and his phone is interpreting the data so he can "see" the RFID feed in real time.

Those following it closely, feel free to correct any fact errors I've made.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mcallister3200
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October 6th, 2019 at 1:13:16 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm not following this closely enough to make an informed comment on Postle, but someone mentioned WSOP.

Unless something has changed very recently, the broadcasts are delayed 20 minutes - not just to the public, but to the commentators. The graphics are translated from the raw feed at the time of broadcast, and the commentators are commenting live while watching a delayed feed. The feed itself is not reviewed until the 7 seconds before broadcast, where they're listening for bleep-worthy comments, but otherwise not editing.

Even though their booth is usually on the poker floor, just off from the feature table, they're not watching the live game. It gets a little weird sometimes, when something huge happens in real time, and you hear the roar of the rail birds over the mikes of the commentators. Sometimes they acknowledge that, and usually explain the delay they're using if so, but usually they maintain the fiction that they're working in real time (which they sort of are).

Anyway, this mode of operation is supposed to protect against stuff like this Postel situation. There's nobody who can see or interpret the card data in real time if none of it gets played back before the graphics and commentary are layered on top. So I don't see why this Stones situation would be an indictment of all streamed or broadcast poker.

The only exception would be, I guess, if somehow Postelis intercepting a live wifi broadcast from the table, and his phone is interpreting the data so he can "see" the RFID feed in real time.

Those following it closely, feel free to correct any fact errors I've made.



There is a 30 minute delay here too, including commentators.
PokerGrinder
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AxelWolf
October 6th, 2019 at 1:43:39 PM permalink
Axel, apparently Postle had a thing for sports betting and wasnít good at it. The online world seems to think that he owes money and thatís why this started.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. ó Amarillo Slim Preston
unJon
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October 6th, 2019 at 3:51:27 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

When Mike Postle First Cheated.

https://www.reddit.com/r/poker/comments/ddzqgp/when_mike_postle_first_cheated/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf


Not sure if this is related or not.




Yeah someone made a good before and after video. Long (30 min) but interesting. All about phone placement.

Also looks like a lawyer is gathering people that lost to Mike for a civil case.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
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October 6th, 2019 at 5:59:54 PM permalink
I have heard a technical expert state that WSOP telecasts are highly secure. They use an armed guard at the areas where the servers acquire and process the hands and they have a different way of handling the editing. They comply with all the Nevada Gaming Commission requirements for Live streaming where Stoners Gaming didn't -Stoners took some short-cuts and were casual about certain aspects of security.

Still, there is no harm in keeping your eyes open at any poker table. If there is a possible way to cheat, eventually someone will try to cheat.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Rigondeaux
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October 6th, 2019 at 6:11:01 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I have heard a technical expert state that WSOP telecasts are highly secure. They use an armed guard at the areas where the servers acquire and process the hands and they have a different way of handling the editing. They comply with all the Nevada Gaming Commission requirements for Live streaming where Stoners Gaming didn't -Stoners took some short-cuts and were casual about certain aspects of security.

Still, there is no harm in keeping your eyes open at any poker table. If there is a possible way to cheat, eventually someone will try to cheat.



Poker cheats make far more than bank robbers.

No one has ever gonna to jail for cheating at poker.

Do the math
unJon
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October 8th, 2019 at 2:15:59 PM permalink
Lawsuit by the original whistleblower and a bunch of the Stones players has been filed.

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?uri=urn%3Aaaid%3Ascds%3AUS%3A323fafc0-e583-4c19-91be-dc7d1610c53b
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
MaxPen
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October 8th, 2019 at 2:18:48 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Lawsuit by the original whistleblower and a bunch of the Stones players has been filed.

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?uri=urn%3Aaaid%3Ascds%3AUS%3A323fafc0-e583-4c19-91be-dc7d1610c53b



They might have a case against the organizer/promoter of the game. Postle probably walks.
Johnzimbo
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October 8th, 2019 at 2:58:50 PM permalink
The lawsuit lists Kelly Minkin as one of the attorneys. She has made a couple deep runs in the main event and is easy on the eyes.
gordonm888
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Hunterhill
October 8th, 2019 at 7:19:19 PM permalink
I didn't see Chris Moneymaker as a plaintiff. He is a friend of Postle but certainly played in many of the games.

I hope Mike Postle, Justin Kuraitis and the Sands Poker Hall all suffer a plague of lawyers and then pay out the ass.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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October 8th, 2019 at 7:56:43 PM permalink
I also expect that the filing of this lawsuit will cause everyone remotely involved in this situation to stop discussing this.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
AxelWolf
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October 8th, 2019 at 8:40:01 PM permalink
HOW MIKE POSTLE ALLEGEDLY (LOL) CHEATED STONES LIVE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qar90n6teQ
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
beachbumbabs
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October 9th, 2019 at 9:09:32 AM permalink
May be a dupe article, couldn't tell from the link, about the lawsuit.

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2019/10/mike-postle-stones-parties-hit-with-10m-lawsuit-35621.htm
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
darkoz
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October 9th, 2019 at 9:15:19 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

In the old days he would just be shot and taken out back. Today a bunch of people will just talk about it. Hopefully noone is dumb enough to keep sitting in a game with him.



In the old days he would probably be in cahoots with the sheriff
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gordonm888
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RigondeauxMooseton
October 10th, 2019 at 6:25:41 AM permalink
So, according to the posted videos, the software for the streaming application on the casino server has a tab labeled "streaming." You enter the software and press this tab and then enter the IP address of the "secondary" device(s) that you wish to stream to in real time - a phone, or pad or computer. Then you go to the phone or pad or computer and enter the IP address of the server in your Windows browser -and your phone, pad or computer then receives the real-time streaming of the hands of all the players and their bet status.

Three steps -that's all it takes. No hacking, no trojan - it is a functionality that is programmed into the software. Reportedly the tournament director (Jason Kuraitis) and head of security at Stones Gambling Hall were also receiving the real-time stream on their phones/devices.

There is some latency - some delay - about 15 to 20 seconds in the streaming to your phone/pad/laptop. This is why -when the phones were still allowed at the table - Postle spent so much time looking into his lap.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
unJon
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October 10th, 2019 at 6:41:29 AM permalink
Yes that all seems to hang together with the evidence thatís come out so far. Means someone on the inside was complicit. Itís also been reported on the 2+2 thread that Peter Neff has been having conversations with an investigator at the California DOJ, with the implication that criminal charges may be coming down the pike.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
100xOdds
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October 10th, 2019 at 11:00:37 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

After spending times watching some of the hands, it is obvious to me that Postle knows the hole cards. I play competitive poker* and no one makes the kinds of calls, folds and raises that Postle makes over and over again.

He often checks his phone before he makes these miracle decisions.

Either:

1. the streaming broadcast of the game which is on a 20 minute delay, is being intercepted by a confederate, who is watching and phoning in to Postle whant his opponents have, OR
2. The RF ID chips in the cards are somehow being scanned such that Postle knows the cards.
***********************************************
*I have 5 cashes in 13 WSOP events.


So he's being sued.

How to prove he's cheating?
Or do you even need to prove since the jury only needs to be sure 51% since it's a civil trial?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxelWolf
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October 10th, 2019 at 11:26:58 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

So, according to the posted videos, the software for the streaming application on the casino server has a tab labeled "streaming." You enter the software and press this tab and then enter the IP address of the "secondary" device(s) that you wish to stream to in real time - a phone, or pad or computer. Then you go to the phone or pad or computer and enter the IP address of the server in your Windows browser -and your phone, pad or computer then receives the real-time streaming of the hands of all the players and their bet status.

Three steps -that's all it takes. No hacking, no trojan - it is a functionality that is programmed into the software. Reportedly the tournament director (Jason Kuraitis) and head of security at Stones Gambling Hall were also receiving the real-time stream on their phones/devices.

There is some latency - some delay - about 15 to 20 seconds in the streaming to your phone/pad/laptop. This is why -when the phones were still allowed at the table - Postle spent so much time looking into his lap.

I was going to post the video that explains exactly how this worked but I got sidetracked(damn porn pop-ups 🤣).
Now I can't seem to locate that video.

I guess Mike Postel is going to lawyer up at this point. I really wish we could have got a few more interviews out of him,eventually he would have said the wrong thing.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MidwestAP
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October 10th, 2019 at 11:50:12 AM permalink
Axel - this is the one I think you are referencing

How it could be done
AxelWolf
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October 10th, 2019 at 12:02:27 PM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

Axel - this is the one I think you are referencing

How it could be done

yes, that's the one, thank you.
Looks like it had a built-in cheat mode 😄🤔 🤨
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gordonm888
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October 10th, 2019 at 12:42:41 PM permalink
I watched a blog interview with the lead lawyer for the suit against Postle, Jason Kuraitis and the ownership of the poker club.

Lawyer points out that the vast majority of civil actions are settled out of court. But that a lawyer must always be prepared to actually try the case. Civil cases need only to be 50.0001% persuasive.

They are also suing for libel of Brill by the Sands Club for their public statements about her charges.

The first law of cheating surely must be: do it in a way that you absolutely do not get caught. Because I expect that Postle, Kuraitis and whomever else helped them are each going to wish they had never done this.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
unJon
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October 12th, 2019 at 7:33:24 AM permalink
Reportedly, Stones has confirmed thereís an active criminal investigation ongoing. Also the Stones lawyer indicated the results of a forensic review of the computer and IT systems may be a available this week.

Mods, can we love this thread to the Poker forum so itís easier to locate?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Gandler
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Forager
October 12th, 2019 at 8:44:03 AM permalink
I am going to hold off an opinion until more hard evidence is uncovered.

But, it seems like banning phones and electronics at the table (and actually enforcing it), and banning headware at the table (I think its not classy to wear hats inside anyway), would solve any of this potential cheating.
gordonm888
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October 12th, 2019 at 8:55:35 AM permalink
Quote: Gandler

I am going to hold off an opinion until more hard evidence is uncovered.



Then you clearly have not looked very hard into this matter. You surely form opinions on many things in life all the time with much less than the mountains of evidence that are available on this issue.

Quote: Gandler

But, it seems like banning phones and electronics at the table (and actually enforcing it), and banning headware at the table (I think its not classy to wear hats inside anyway), would solve any of this potential cheating.



It would help greatly, but any type of electronic device on a sensitive body part can be used by an accomplice to transmit signals. The core of the issue is the ability of the streaming software to stream the hole cards to multiple platforms.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Gandler
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October 12th, 2019 at 9:04:52 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Then you clearly have not looked very hard into this matter. You surely form opinions on many things in life all the time with much less than the mountains of evidence that are available on this issue.



It would help greatly, but any type of electronic device on a sensitive body part can be used by an accomplice to transmit signals. The core of the issue is the ability of the streaming software to stream the hole cards to multiple platforms.



I have watched all of Polk's videos and interviews as of last night. And, I have seen countless other "cheating hand" and "crazy fold" videos about him on YouTube.

I have not seen any hard evidence of him doing anything improper, other than using his phone when prohibited (but nobody at the table tried to stop him....)

So I am not lacking knowledge. But, cheating is a huge accusation that can destroy somebody for life and potentially have endless legal and criminal issues, so I am not going to say "I am 100% sure he is cheating" without actual hard evidence.

So far the only hard evidence I have seen shows that he breaks the table phone protocol (as many others also do).


Which is why strictly banning phones and electronics, and banning headware would help. Also, dont use RFID cards, if the streamers need to know the hole cards, use cameras like many televised games do. This would also prevent RFID signals from being intercepted and related via some hidden body device that can cue you on what you should do (this is very far fetched, but I will grant that it is possible).

If there was cheating, the casino did little to prevent it with their lax enforcment, and their streaming data...
beachbumbabs
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October 12th, 2019 at 9:05:08 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Reportedly, Stones has confirmed thereís an active criminal investigation ongoing. Also the Stones lawyer indicated the results of a forensic review of the computer and IT systems may be a available this week.

Mods, can we love this thread to the Poker forum so itís easier to locate?



Moved. Good idea, thanks.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxelWolf
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October 12th, 2019 at 9:47:35 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Then you clearly have not looked very hard into this matter.

OBVIOUSLY!

Not even his mother thinks he's innocent.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
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October 12th, 2019 at 9:55:40 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

OBVIOUSLY!

Not even his mother thinks he's innocent.



I too think he is probably cheating, but I still haven't seen any real evidence.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Gandler
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October 12th, 2019 at 10:01:02 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I too think he is probably cheating, but I still haven't seen any real evidence.



Because nobody has offered hard evidence of anything other than improper cell phone use (which many are guilty of)....
AxelWolf
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October 12th, 2019 at 10:11:35 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I too think he is probably cheating, but I still haven't seen any real evidence.

From what I've seen there's more than enough circumstantial evidence to even convict him criminally.

I don't know what California laws are regarding this and I doubt he will be convicted criminally.

I think there is even that same blue screen on his phone they use on the stream interface.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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October 12th, 2019 at 12:08:34 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

Also, dont use RFID cards, if the streamers need to know the hole cards, use cameras like many televised games do.



problem isnt RFID its the fact that it is a signal that is going somewhere that wasn't secure. Video is still a signal being sent to somewhere. RFID is a cheaper signal based on the fact that video signals are massive compared to what the RFID signals going through the network would "cost".

Someone still needs to secure the signal, and therefore someone has access to the signal, and therefore this argument is once again brought back to the measures taken for security and who can actually see the signal. Technology is not the problem here its people and how many layers of security are established. The more layers, which cost more money, the less likely someone is going to be able to do what people are saying he did. Stones most likely went the cheap way, by apparently asking mike to help set it up. IF you know the IP address, AND you are on the same network as the server, your god as people keep calling him ironically.
unJon
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October 12th, 2019 at 12:09:48 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I too think he is probably cheating, but I still haven't seen any real evidence.

The evidence is circumstantial but overwhelming. The Grumpstein video is my favorite showing the play difference between cell phone on table and cell phone on lap.
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October 12th, 2019 at 12:35:59 PM permalink
Below is another great video where the game has just switched from Hold'em to Pot Limit Omaha, but the software wasn't re-set to Omaha, so the software is only showing two of the four hole cards for each player. Postler looks confused, and then starts swiping his cards over the RF reader in front of him to try to get his 3rd and 4th cards read - clearly indicating that he can see the live stream of hole cards and realizes that all four cards aren't being shown. On no other video-taped hand does he ever make a similar move -only when there's a glitch.



The fact that Postles tries to re-swipe his four hole cards when their is a glitch in the display of his hole cards is a smoking gun. There is no other explanation for this behavior.

Notice also that after Postle realizes that he can't see all 4 hole cards of his opponent, how his demeanor changes at the table. Both of Postle's arms are now above the table, he doesn't look into his lap, and he is no longer smiling or smirking - he is uncertain of what to do.
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SOOPOO
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October 12th, 2019 at 1:23:00 PM permalink
I canít believe there is anyone who knows anything about poker that does not believe he is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. There is so much evidence that there is absolutely no reasonable explanation other than he cheated.
You see two men walk into an alley. Moments later you hear shots. You go to the alley and see one of the men standing over the dead body of the other man. The standing man has a smoking gun in his hand. You donít think there is enough evidence because no one saw him shoot?
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October 12th, 2019 at 1:59:37 PM permalink
The scary part is that someone with a brain could have gotten away with this forever! Greed and ego got this guy caught! He could have used the info to influence a few hands per session and shown a nice winrate. He got caught up in wanting to be considered the BEST! Stones started touting him as a poker god and he ate it up. It reminds me of when Barry Bonds turned to PED's because he couldn't stand the fact that McGwire and Sosa were getting all the headlines. His ego needed to be considered the best at all costs.
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Rigondeaux
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October 12th, 2019 at 2:04:44 PM permalink
This exemplifies why he'll skate.

Intelligent people who have some loose understanding of poker and math have doubts. Imagine people of average intelligence who have never set foot in a casino.

Fwiw, if you were ever on trial, you'd want me on the jury. But id convict this guy without a second thought, assuming that what he did actually meets the criteria for the crime.
Gandler
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October 12th, 2019 at 2:10:49 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Below is another great video where the game has just switched from Hold'em to Pot Limit Omaha, but the software wasn't re-set to Omaha, so the software is only showing two of the four hole cards for each player. Postler looks confused, and then starts swiping his cards over the RF reader in front of him to try to get his 3rd and 4th cards read - clearly indicating that he can see the live stream of hole cards and realizes that all four cards aren't being shown. On no other video-taped hand does he ever make a similar move -only when there's a glitch.



The fact that Postles tries to re-swipe his four hole cards when their is a glitch in the display of his hole cards is a smoking gun. There is no other explanation for this behavior.

Notice also that after Postle realizes that he can't see all 4 hole cards of his opponent, how his demeanor changes at the table. Both of Postle's arms are now above the table, he doesn't look into his lap, and he is no longer smiling or smirking - he is uncertain of what to do.



I saw this video and as much as I love Polk, there are a few things that bother me.

Postle is clearly not the only player doing this after the flop, at least two of the remaining post flop players also do this. (There is not great camera angles of everyone before they fold so possibly more did). It is quite possible that the floor asked them to do such, perhaps they realized there was an issue with the feed.

Polk ignores all of this and only focuses on the footage of Postle doing this.

And, winning with a Full House in PLO on that board is hardly a red flag. It's not like he made some far-fetched call here... He pretty much played post flop as anyone with that hand would have.

This is one of those videos where Polk is starting to show obsession with Postle being a cheater (selectively showing only him scanning his cards, focusing on a call anyone would have made, rtc.etc....)



Also, why would only Postle scan his own cards (this was not the case)? If he did not scan his cards, but insisted everyone else do so, that would be much more damning....

Does anyone have audio feed from this hand? I would be curious to know if there was indeed any instructions to rescan. I imagine there must have been or else multiples players would not have....
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October 12th, 2019 at 2:16:37 PM permalink
It's the totality of evidence that is damning not any one individual hand. He plays a loose passive style yet makes the correct river decision 100% of the time. His win rate was something ridiculous like $900/hr. If you look at any one piece of evidence you can debate it but if you look at it as a whole there is NO doubt he cheated.
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October 12th, 2019 at 2:16:43 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I canít believe there is anyone who knows anything about poker that does not believe he is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. There is so much evidence that there is absolutely no reasonable explanation other than he cheated.
You see two men walk into an alley. Moments later you hear shots. You go to the alley and see one of the men standing over the dead body of the other man. The standing man has a smoking gun in his hand. You donít think there is enough evidence because no one saw him shoot?




The evidence is more compelling the more familiar you are with poker logic and actual poker playing styles.

There was a poster on Twitter who is a PhD statistician who argued that this is a all a rush to judgment. His argument seemed to be based on the claim that Polk et al. are cherry picking, which is true.

The problem is none of this evidence except for winrates (which are imperfectly know) can be assessed in a mathematical way. For example the staring at his crotch before making major decisions...who among us knows the probability that a person would stare at his crotch in this way during a streamed game without receiving illicit information? The data don't even exist from which to determine this probability.

So the statistically minded dismiss it as biased cherry picking, whereas experienced live players find it extremely suspicious.

Also the way his play style routinely combines extremely loose calls with extremely tight folds. It's not just the improbability of always getting these moves right, it's the impossibility for any experienced winning player to even have a thought process that leads to these moves.

Whereas less experienced people might think "he plays his hunches, so what, it's a psychological game".
Rigondeaux
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October 12th, 2019 at 3:31:32 PM permalink
Yeah. Some estimated the possibility of his win rate coming honestly as less likely than a DNA match to the wrong person.

But: there were a lot of pots with huge straddles and bizarre action. 1/3 with a $20 straddle complicates things.

On top of that, there are other improbable poker feats that can confuse a jury. One lawyer on 2+2 said at a certain point juries might just see a long shot as a long shot.

One counter to that is those feats didn't come in an absolute vacuum. Johnny Chan didn't win 2 wsop titles and have zero success outside of that. Let alone, play like a completely different person in other cases. Nor did he win those titles by effortlessly making the correct decision every single time.

But nobody could come up with an example of someone being convicted of cheating in the US.

I think he walks.

If he is convicted, the hand where he merrily cheats a cancer patient who was playing one last poker game before assisted suicide will come in handy during sentencing.

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