The never-ending horse thread

But to answer your question, there’s probably around 1500 horses stabled there.

^^Upon further review, probably better to just go with the two succinct FinsRule replies, and leave it there.

Well now if one wants to be "stunned" by the simple number "ten" or twenty-one for that matter without any awareness of it amounting to a mortality rate much lower than what occurs in nature then there's going to be no possible cure for that anywhere under any circumstances no matter what. But if someone wants to be so inclined they won't have to search too hard to find some intensely enthusiastic support that's grabbing misleading hysteria inducing factoids to aid in staying that way and feeling very full of righteous fervor for folks who like that. But hey guess what, there most certainly were a lot more than that many deaths among human athletes occurring last year and the year before and every year, and there will continue to be. People do die, for all kinds of reasons, at all ages, including athletic ones, just as other living things do.

But I guess someone should really have to get beyond horrified at the much larger number of deaths that would occur among a similar large population of wild horses not receiving the same exceptionally high level of constant daily attention and extensive veterinary care, and doing their constant daily natural running on ground that's not nearly so carefully manicured and expensively maintained. I don't have the current stall number which has been changing (growing) since the final end of training & stabling at Hollywood Park, but over the last several years I can recall that I've seen reports of recent expansions designed to add on over 800 more stalls in new barns that were being built in a stabling addition on the north side of the grounds, and another addition of something on the order of 1,400 more IIRC that were to be added nearby in West Covina. I think it is safe to say the total population of horses routinely using the facilities at Santa Anita, including both the large number stabled there and the larger population stabled off-site but routinely on the grounds exceeds the human population of a lot of towns and some counties, towns and counties that would be places where, as you may have noticed, people die, as do other animals. Perhaps that perspective will help; one would hope.

Personally I'd be in favor of getting totally medieval about dealing with anyone harming or knowingly tolerating someone harming these wonderful creatures. But whatever else it would be, willfully "abusing" these animals would as a purely practical matter amount to stacking a lot of your money in a pile and lighting it on fire. There are creeps and malignant idiots at large in the world, even some right here right now, but it would be pretty foolish to assume this is that.

EDIT to add: I think Fin's stall number given above is probably right, for the rock bottom baseline minimum of what has been stabled on the grounds for many years. That's without considering the additions mentioned above that I don't necessarily know have all been completed or not, and those regularly brought to the grounds without stabling there. The last item has increased a lot since stall space was removed at Hollywood Park, creating a regional barn space crunch, so the total population number becomes squishy.

By the way & FWIW, treat this as a rumor of an assertion, but I know I've previously read in some of the professional literature on the subject that the all cause mortality rate of racing age (young) thoroughbreds is 0.69%, which I recall was considered the normal baseline among all those known under human care, and therefore generally living healthier safer lives than in nature. But even though I do remember that specific figure I don't have the source to cite or a good enough recollection of which academic institution and publication(s) were involved to know how to direct someone to find it easily, with any methodology, documentation, and context.

Quote: FinsRule

Raintree Starlet draws the 7 post in a field of 10 for the Grade III Honeybee Saturday at Oaklawn.

I’d say 8-1 would be a good morning line, maybe 4th choice?

I imagine you've probably seen Oaklawn Park's staff account of an interview with your trainer, which headlines this edition of "barn notes" posted by them a few days ago: RAINTREE STARLET TO MAKE TWO-TURN DEBUT IN SATURDAY’S HONEYBEE STAKES

There's also this short summation published today by Thoroughbred Daily News of the presumed top tier competition expected to go in the Honeybee, but not including your Starlet among their three: Empire Maker Filly the Buzz in Honeybee

I have no clue about an appropriate morning line or an opinion of fair value. And I'll probably choose not to get one of either for this.

this is the New York Times Joe Drape's take on the issue at Santa Anita. Drape is a bettor and handicapper and I don't think he has a more than average bias in whatever direction

this article has a great deal more detail than the Post's.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/sports/santa-anita.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

Quote: FinsRule

Raintree Starlet draws the 7 post in a field of 10 for the Grade III Honeybee Saturday at Oaklawn.

I’d say 8-1 would be a good morning line, maybe 4th choice?

This is SO exciting. I'm going to try and figure out where I can watch it live. Anybody know who besides OTB places might broadcast it?

Quote: beachbumbabs

This is SO exciting. I'm going to try and figure out where I can watch it live. Anybody know who besides OTB places might broadcast it?

Fox Sports 2. Thanks for your support!

Go get em RTStarlet!

For the Honeybee past performances click on Sunset Wish's Ulimate pps link.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/GODOLPHIN/9999/summary.html
Click on Sunset Wish's Ulimate pps link.

Go Raintree Honeybee! FS2 is already on the air w/Aquaduct and Tampa Bay Downs, but the Honeybee should be up pretty soon. Perfect track conditions, 70°.

I checked the past performances of other horses Raintree has a good shot if she can handle the distance. Her running style is what I like. Just off the pace a bit. Good luck Fin.

It is 5 min to post and Raintree is 9-1

Quote: SkipDaName - JustDaFactsM'am

Perfect track conditions

Yeesh.

Aside from the fact that it has been and at this time still is an "off" track officially rated as such by track personnel for the horse race bettor's information. Not too surprisingly after the HEAVY RAIN today, which leaves it now becoming an unevenly sticky and drying racing surface under the SEVERE WIND conditions which right now are over 25 mph & gusting higher.

Which really isn't so bad at all and is even something I'd call pretty good luck, because it escaped a hit from the TWO TORNADOS that have just torn through the area today destroying numerous homes and buildings in the town next door less than 10 miles West, with the other one deciding to duck Oaklawn even a bit more by cutting a swath about 30 miles NW of the track today, with only two non-fatal casualties that are known so far, according to the National Weather Service.

None of which, by the way, is necessarily particularly disadvantageous to the chances of Fin's Raintree Starlet, in my opinion. But some people who are not on-track do consider such things highly relevant to spotting track bias conditions and doing trip handicapping with their money, so the usual everyday WoV reality manufacturing stuff isn't such a great idea for this purpose.

That done, we'll sing it together: Go l'll Starlet, no worse for wear & no reason to do any less than others for any of the above..

Off at 13-1. Finished 6 or 7. Too fast and too long.

Man what is with Gary Stevens today, he is off his game. Seems to be stammering a lot and even misidentified a horse on A REPLAY?

Of course, she may quite likely still be a very nice highly talented filly, with most of a very good racing career still ahead of her. So given the calendar for her age restricted class her folks rightly posed a big question to learn what ELSE she could do, and may now conclude that she's not one of the dozen or so very best on the continent at the specific task of routing this distance of ground.

Which leaves most of the races carded every day in North America, including a heaping sheetload of rewarding stakes races, for her to potentially excel at and get rich before retiring to be a pampered mommy. I know I'm just babbling some simple "duh" stuff through the keyboard that most everybody reading this thread already knows. But I thought it might be forgiven for putting on a Captain Obvious hat this way at this time. My gambling voodoo consultant says many wins ahead to you, and thanks for sharing the ride.

Quote: DrawingDead

Yeesh.

Aside from the fact that it has been and at this time still is an "off" track officially rated as such by track personnel for the horse race bettor's information. Not too surprisingly after the HEAVY RAIN today, which leaves it now becoming an unevenly sticky and drying racing surface under the SEVERE WIND conditions which right now are over 25 mph & gusting higher.

Which really isn't so bad at all and is even something I'd call pretty good luck, because it escaped a hit from the TWO TORNADOS that have just torn through the area today destroying numerous homes and buildings in the town next door less than 10 miles West, with the other one deciding to duck Oaklawn even a bit more by cutting a swath about 30 miles NW of the track today, with only two non-fatal casualties that are known so far, according to the National Weather Service.

None of which, by the way, is necessarily particularly disadvantageous to the chances of Fin's Raintree Starlet, in my opinion. But some people who are not on-track do consider such things highly relevant to spotting track bias conditions and doing trip handicapping with their money, so the usual everyday WoV reality manufacturing stuff isn't such a great idea for this purpose.

That done, we'll sing it together: Go l'll Starlet, no worse for wear & no reason to do any less than others for any of the above..

Dude. I was paraphrasing the on-camera person who was on-site as to temperature and conditions, a couple hours before the race. This was an unnecessary flame. Maybe you gave a couple people here a superior smirk for 30 seconds. Doubt you accomplished anything else.

Seemed like Raintree did pretty well over the distance she knew how to run before. Enjoyed watching, and I hope she has a nice future. She looked like 6th to me, but as somebody said, it was a bit difficult to tell how they finished.

I guess I’m back here slumming it with you guys. No fame and riches for me.

Thanks for all the good wishes.

I’ll let everyone know as soon as I hear if she came out of the race okay.

I believe she could be a formidable sprinter.

Having her run 8.5 after having run no farther than 6 seems like they were asking too much.

Officially she finished 8th of 10 runners. Not a great result but still fun to watch her run and compete.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=OP&raceDate=03/09/2019&cy=USA&rn=9
Not that it really matters...
Fun fact, the track was upgrading from "good" to "fast" for the Honeybee @ Oaklawn today. :):):)

bet Midnight Bisou in a 5 horse field in the Azeri at Oaklawn
didn't pay much but one of very few that I'll take a short price on
always makes an effort, always closes - only one I think that could challenge Monomoy Girl
Respect

Quote: FinsRule

I guess I’m back here slumming it with you guys. No fame and riches for me.

Thanks for all the good wishes.

I’ll let everyone know as soon as I hear if she came out of the race okay.

So, did she come out of the race ok?

Horseracingnation.Com shows her status as "active" a week after the race, so I'm hopeful she didn't break down.

Quote: beachbumbabs

So, did she come out of the race ok?

Horseracingnation.Com shows her status as "active" a week after the race, so I'm hopeful she didn't break down.

Oh, she didn’t break down. She was just very tired. But I haven’t heard anything about plans for a next race yet. I should get a better update by Friday.

Attn: exotic lovers

according to DRF.com (linked) Sam Houston features very low takeout on multi-race exotics - 12% on rolling doubles, pick 3s, pick 4s, and a pick 5

Sam Houston has 5 stakes races on the card Saturday each with a $50K purse

the way I read and understand the article is that Sam Houston always offers this - but I'm not 100% sure it's not just a promo for this Saturday

even if you don't really like the extreme exotics - the rolling daily double is comparatively easy to hit

this represents a tremendous gain for the bettor of about somewhere between 8 and 13%


https://www.drf.com/news/preview/king-low-takeout-makes-stakes-rich-sam-houston-card-enticing?type=

I noticed Raintree Starlet worked out 3/23 @ Oaklawn. Good luck with her moving forward.

Raintree was nominated for the stakes this weekend at Oaklawn, but she will not be entering.

We are waiting two weeks and taking our show on the road to Keeneland!

There’s a Turf sprint stakes there, and she should be extremely tough if she runs to her Turf pedigree. Both of her older siblings have sprinted well on the turf.

Her dad was a grade 1 winning turf miler. She has great speed.

The race is 4/12 and I plan on attending.

Good luck. Please post before 4th the race. Thanks.

Raintree is entered for Friday at Keeneland.

100K stakes race. 5.5 furlongs on the turf for 3 year old Fillies. A full field of 14.

Her first time on turf, but she is bred for this. She has some serious competition, but Raintree has tactical speed which should be perfect for this.

I will be in Lexington for the race with my whole family.

I hope to catch you on TV when you are taking the photo. $10 across on Raintree. I hope it RAINS

Raintree is 30-1. I bet $5 across.

43-1 at post.

Raintree lost. I suggest a NEW rider.

Quote: speedycrap

Raintree lost. I suggest a NEW rider.

Trainer was NOT happy with the ride. If you get into trouble in a Turf sprint, no chance.

Raintree cooled down fine after race. She should be good to go in 4 weeks.

I got to meet Bill Murray, so the trip wasn’t a complete waste.

the incredible mare Winx won her last race yesterday
33 straight wins - maybe the greatest horse of all time

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-13/winx-wins-like-a-queen-to-complete-stellar-career/10962550

Mistletoe Miss racing tomorrow at Arlington

Raintree Starlet Saturday in a stakes at Churchill.

I plan on attending both. Hopefully the sisters can make me some money this weekend.

Quote: FinsRule

Mistletoe Miss racing tomorrow at Arlington

Raintree Starlet Saturday in a stakes at Churchill.

I plan on attending both. Hopefully the sisters can make me some money this weekend.

Seems like quite a bit a travel, but a very fun weekend to see your runners live. GL

Well, Arlington is on my commute home from work.

Louisville should be about a 4.5 hour drive, so not too bad.

Quote: FinsRule

Mistletoe Miss racing tomorrow at Arlington

Raintree Starlet Saturday in a stakes at Churchill.

I plan on attending both. Hopefully the sisters can make me some money this weekend.

MM got a nice second today. Enjoy the drive and good luck in the Stakes.

-Delete- Wrong Thread-

Quote: FinsRule

Mistletoe Miss racing tomorrow at Arlington

Raintree Starlet Saturday in a stakes at Churchill.

I plan on attending both. Hopefully the sisters can make me some money this weekend.

4th for Raintree was not bad. She is a really really fast/speedy filly.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/11/2019&cy=USA&rn=10

Quote: Keeneone

4th for Raintree was not bad. She is a really really fast/speedy filly.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/11/2019&cy=USA&rn=10

I think she was post compromised. She had to go too fast early. I’m excited for her next race. The figure came back pretty high too.

I found this really fascinating from Barry Meadow's new book "The Skeptical Handicapper"
it refers to the favorite/longshot bias which Tom Ainslie identified in his classic book from the 1960s
I've heard many say that the favorite/longshot bias no longer exists
obviously it still does exist and is quite strong
these are the results from data from about 863,000 races - IV means impact value which I cannot now give a good definition of but it's not really necessary to understand the implications of this data:




for horses going off greater than 15/1 the ROI is worse and continues to get much worse as the odds go up

yet another black mark on the reputation of The Sport of Kings

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Report_Brown_fined_1_6_million_after_government_investigation_123

I’m pretty sure he’s not the only one...

That’s nothing.

Do you know what goes on in the backstretch?

Quote: FinsRule

Do you know what goes on in the backstretch?

not exactly - do tell

A bunch of illegal immigrants living together with pretty much no laws.

of course the relative hardness or softness of the track surface could have some effect on this but still:

yesterday Vino Rosso won the Santa Anita Gold Cup in 2:03.00

Spectacular Bid set the track record in 1980 in 1:57.80

𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟓 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞

𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐁𝐢𝐝 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐕𝐢𝐧𝐨 𝐑𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐨 𝐛𝐲 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝟐𝟔 𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡𝐬


the remembrance of the great horses from the past is overshadowed by Secretariat


𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐁𝐢𝐝 𝐰𝐚𝐬

Three of my favorite horses, of course there were so many, but I was especially fond of Holy Bull, Bertrando, and Best Pal. Probably the fact that I was there to see these guys had something to do with my fondness for them. I was still middle-aged, even "young", the day I was at Del Mar to watch Best Pal win the 1991 Pacific Classic. Best Pal was a crowd favorite, everyone loved him.

I found an article on one of my old hard drives, I had saved it, it was by Jay Hovdey. I forget where I got it, probably the Racing Form, maybe the sports page, maybe Blood Horse, I don't remember. But I paste it below, my contribution to our The Never-Ending Horse Thread. I hope it is ok to post this.

-----

The Death of Best Pal (by Jay Hovdey)

Thanks for everything, old friend

There are photographs of five horses hanging on the wall over the desk at which this is being written. Best Pal is one of them.

That means Best Pal is thought of nearly every day in this household, and will continue to be as long as there is a wall and a desk. I have a feeling we are not alone.

Some great horses strike a brief flame. Once in a while they come to mind, bright and vivid, like the memory of a first date, or an earthquake.

Others entertain us for long and satisfying careers. We come to think of them as part of the gorgeous scenery, and when they leave, the color in the scenery fades.

Then there are the horses who jump the rails and worm their way into our hearts and minds. They set up shop for good. They help define the game. They give people a reason to show up every morning,
muck stalls in the dark, and brag about being a citizen of the Thoroughbred racing world.

When Best Pal went to his knees and died on Tuesday morning, it was the first time he knuckled under to anything. He was a horse of complete and unflinching integrity. When he won, the planets were properly aligned. When he lost, he was never scorned.

In the lineage of California's greatest native icons, Best Pal was the spiritual descendant of Swaps, Native Diver, Ancient Title, and Flying Paster. In the past 30 years, only two horses have rivaled Best Pal's public adoration on the California stage. They were Cougar II and John Henry.

When Best Pal emerged from Ian Jory's shed row at Santa Anita in the fall of 1990, fresh from his effortless sweep of three stakes at Del Mar, he was wearing black bellboots, a green saddle towel, and a small crescent-shaped scar between his eyes. Seems that late one night, bored and full of 2-year-old vinegar, he decided to pick a fight with his stall. It was a draw.

"Gives him sort of a piratical air, doesn't it?" Jory said in fond admiration.

That was the perfect description. Best Pal was a buccaneer. He was a man-size horse with the attitude to match. Even at rest, it was clear Best Pal was always thinking about something. His next race. His next meal. Your next move. He roamed through three different barns on his way to more than $5.6 million in hard-earned swag over seven memorable calendar years. Never mind the list of horses who came and went during Best Pal's days. He was there to greet them at the door and still pouring drinks when they left.

John Mabee, the man who bred and owned Best Pal, came under criticism for shuttling his horse from Jory to Gary Jones and finally to Richard Mandella. But if Best Pal knew the difference, it never showed. Each of the three men will swear to this day that Best Pal trained them more than the other way around.

"He was like one of those people who wouldn't let you get close, but you knew he liked you anyway," Mandella said Tuesday upon hearing the news.

"He was one of those horses who was so smart, who did everything just right, you know they're going to be a good horse," Jory said. "You never had to show him anything twice."

Best Pal did some of his very best work for Jones, becoming the only horse to win the Santa Anita Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Pacific Classic.

"Damn." Jones was floored. The world was suddenly dark. "A heart attack? It's like losing part of the family. He was my main man. The best I ever had. He lived a full life, but I thought he had a lot of years left."

It is to Mabee's everlasting credit that he and his wife, Betty, retired Best Pal the moment he ran that inexplicably bad race in the 1996 San Pasqual Handicap. They did not need to see another. Best Pal had never lied to them before, and he wasn't kidding then. They took a big hunk of his earnings and set up a living trust to care for him in perpetuity. They turned him out in his own grand paddock at their Golden Eagle Farm in north San Diego County. The Mabees encouraged visitors, and they let him lead the parade to the post for the past three runnings of the Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

In the photograph over this desk, Best Pal has just returned to the cheers of the Santa Anita crowd after winning the San Antonio Handicap in February of 1995. It was his last big win. Chris McCarron is reaching down to give him a hug, and the smile on his face is one of utter gratitude and delight. Best Pal lived only 10 years. But for those of us lucky enough to get in his way, he provided some of the best years of our lives.

by Jay Hovdey

nice story


I remember after Cigar's last race Bill Mott took him to a racetrack just to say goodbye and let him gallop around the track and people had tears in their eyes